As we noted in Monday’s Morning Five post, the guys at Basketball Prospectus put together an interesting list evaluating the performance of last year’s top 100 freshmen. The piece compares their freshman year results (rated #1-#100) with how they were ranked in the preseason coming out of high school. Of course, this list is subjective but author Drew Cannon nails it using statistics to back up his rankings. The results are a mixed bag. While the #1 recruit (Anthony Davis) finished as the top freshman, and four of the top six recruits turned in top six freshman season performances, there was tremendous fluctuation with the other players. Four of the top 20 freshman performers jumped up at least 40 slots from where they were ranked coming out of high school. The most fascinating player in our view is Trey Burke, who entered college as the #84 player in his class and finished the season at #5 on Cannon’s list. How does such a player slip through the cracks, and what do these findings tell us about the value of recruiting rankings as they relate to immediate success?

Freshman Trey Burke Turned in a Special Season After Hardly Cracking the Top 100 of his Class (AP)

Obviously all years are markedly different, so there’s no definite conclusion to draw from just one year of data. But we took a look at the list and noted a trend. For the most part, there is not as much fluctuation at the top of these rankings as you might expect, and Burke remains a massive outlier. Consider that nine freshman players turned pro after last season, and all of them finished in the top 14 of this list. All nine of the pros were originally ranked in the top 17 last preseason, except for Moe Harkless (#39). That makes Burke such an odd case, as the #84 player from high school who finished fifth in Cannon’s performance rankings and nearly went pro after one year.

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The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Terrence Ross

School: Washington

Height/Weight: 6’7”, 200 lbs.

NBA Position: Shooting Guard

Projected Draft Range: Mid-First Round

Terrence Ross Can Be Spectacular(Getty Images)

Overview: At times in Terrence Ross’ sophomore season in Seattle, he was not only the best player on the floor, but clearly the best player in the Pac-12 and on the short list of best shooting guards in the country. Unfortunately for the Huskies, while Ross was fairly consistent the whole season long (he scored in double figures in 32 of his team’s 35 games), there were times when Ross was all too willing to just coast along, disappearing in losses that likely doomed the Huskies to the NIT. For every game like his 26-point second half against Washington State, there was a head scratcher like his six-point performance on just four field goal attempts in a home loss to South Dakota State. Still, he clearly made significant strides in his second season with the Huskies. After struggling to get minutes at a crowded wing spot as a freshman, Ross was second on the team in minutes as a sophomore and his sparkling offensive efficiency numbers dipped only slightly in his increased role. His offensive game is built around a beautiful jump shot, but he’s got the defensive mettle to match his silky smooth offensive game. With good size at the wing, a good frame and the athleticism to guard the two or the three at the next level, Ross looks for all the world to be a guy with a long future in the NBA ahead of him.

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The Atlantic 10 has had perhaps the busiest offseason of any major basketball conference, highlighted by the exciting additions of Butler and VCU to the league starting immediately next season. The A-10 all of a sudden has 16 teams competing in 2012-13, causing a dilemma in seeking a balanced 16-game conference schedule. But as has been the case all offseason, the league did a terrific job at solving the problem quickly and effectively. On Tuesday the conference released its new league schedule for next season, one that includes all teams playing each other once, and each member taking on a rival opponent twice. Most notable about the set schedule is how difficult a draw was given to darling newcomer Butler. The Bulldogs are in for a much tougher slate than they faced the past several years en route to finishing third or better in the Horizon League for the past seven seasons.

Brad Stevens' Team Received No Favors from the Atlantic 10 (AP Photo/D. Phillip)

Brad Stevens’ team was already facing increased competition by upgrading from the Horizon to the Atlantic 10, but things are made that much harder by the draw they earned next year. To start, Butler’s chosen ‘rival’ is Saint Louis, a league favorite next season that returns four starters from a round-of-32 NCAA Tournament team. The Bulldogs also drew fellow newcomer VCU on the road where the Rams lost just once last season and return a number of key contributors. In addition, Butler plays on the road at Dayton, Massachusetts, and St. Joseph’s, the latter two of which are up-and-coming contenders for next season. The Flyers finished tied for fifth in the league last year and bring back some strong players, as well. Finally, although the Bulldogs drew Xavier at home, they still have to play the Musketeers a second time during the season as part of a previously scheduled ‘non-conference’ game – and it’s in Cincinnati.

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1. Are you looking to be coached by John Calipari, the man who helped develop #1 picks Derrick Rose, John Wall, and Anthony Davis? If you have $7,500, you may be in luck because that is the price that to attend Calipari’s fantasy basketball camp. Of course, if you have a Citi credit card, it is “only” $6,000 thanks to a $1,500 discount. The camp (or “Experience”) is held at Rupp Arena from September 13-16 and is limited to 80 individuals. There are also a couple of variations including one that gives you more access to Calipari and his staff as well as another option where you get to act as an assistant coach. As some people have noted, this is a relative bargain compared to the $10,000 it costs to attend a similar camp with Mike Krzyzewski.
2. There are always a lot of names thrown around when coaching jobs open up, but one name that we have never heard mentioned and is intriguing at least for the name recognition it would bring a program is Christian Laettner. The former Duke star, who last we heard was dealing with ongoing legal issues, worked last season as an assistant coach for an NBDL, but is looking to move to the NBA or potentially the right Division I program. With Laettner’s name and pedigree it would not be surprising to see him on a college sideline, but it is interesting that they did not include a single quote from a former player or coach talking about his ability to coach. This could just be an oversight by the writer or it could be something more.
3. Yesterday, we brought you Drew Cannon’s attempt to re-rank the top 100 recruits in the class of 2011. He followed that up by looking outside of the top 100 recruits to see which players made very big moves as freshmen last year. Most of you probably are not that familiar with some of the guys on this list as even though they outperformed what was expected of them coming into the season the expectations were pretty low so they may not have even registered on your radar. Like we said yesterday, have fun with these recruiting rankings, but remember that a lot can change in a year particularly with the change in environment as many of these guys move away from home for the first time.
4. If you are trying to transfer to a new school it is generally a good idea to avoid generating any controversy in order to avoid scaring off other teams. Apparently this was not a lesson that Donte Morales while he was at UNC-Wilmington. The rising junior, who is attempting to transfer, was arrested on felony drug charges yesterday morning. Morales averaged 7.2 points per game last year and can probably contribute somewhere, but charges like one for intent to sell marijuana will not have coaches beating down his door to get him to come to their campus. The details on the case are still sparse, but there is a decent chance that Morales may be sitting out at least part of his one year waiting period in prison.
5. Father-son combinations are not unusual in college basketball as you saw in the recent transfer case of Central Michigan, but they usually involve two highly accomplished individuals. The latest situation, which may occur at Kansas, appears to be a little more lopsided as Tyler Self, the son of head coach Bill Self, has decided to walk-on at Kansas to play for his father. Tyler, who averaged 3.9 points and 1.3 rebounds per game for his 7-14 high school team last season, recently told his parents of his plan and although the article does not come out and say it explicitly we would expect to see him on the roster next season unless Bill wants to sleep on the couch.

The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Doron Lamb

School: Kentucky

Height/Weight: 6’4” / 210 lbs.

NBA Position: Guard

Projected Draft Range: Late First Round

Lamb Routinely Hit Big Threes Throughout His UK Career

Overview: Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague, and Darius Miller — it is easy to see why Lamb may be slightly overlooked entering the NBA Draft. Not overlooked by the experts and general managers, mind you, but a tad overlooked by the fans. Just how much individual attention can be given to a roster where at least five players project as first round selections? Doron Lamb proved to be Kentucky’s most reliable outside threat throughout last season averaging nearly 14 points and shooting a scorching 46.6% from beyond the arc. Despite having a good handle and being a smart decision-maker with the basketball, Lamb is a natural two guard at the next level, and would complement any established point guard very nicely. Surrounded by a roster full of future NBA players, Lamb was forced to simply become another piece in the offense rather than the focal point; at about 340 other schools in America, Lamb would have taken on the role of “go-to scorer.” As such, Lamb will have a more natural transition to the next level as he already is accustomed to playing within himself and the flow of the offense.

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Scheduling controversies have been prevalent in the news recently, most notably involving Kentucky, Indiana, and their inability to continue a classic rivalry. Supporters of both schools are upset about the (currently) canceled tradition, and rightfully so. So the fact that the SEC announced Monday that it plans to establish permanent basketball rivalries to play twice a year is a positive development in giving fans the matchups they really want to see. Even as the conference expands to 14 teams next season, top combatants (Kentucky-Florida, Auburn-Alabama to name a few) will still see each other two times every year. As part of an 18-game conference schedule, teams will also play four other opponents who will rotate in a three-year cycle twice per year, and play the eight remaining teams once per season. There are pros and cons to this new scheduling format, but the league deserves praise for its progressive decision to focus on key rivalries.

Even as the SEC Expands, Kentucky and Florida Will Still Play Twice a Year (USA TODAY photo)

The establishment of ‘permanent rivals’ is something the Big East failed to explore when it expanded to 16 teams a while ago, leaving its members to play three random teams twice per year as part of its 18-game schedule. As a result, old school rivalries like Georgetown-Syracuse have diminished. Instead of securing a home-and-home series against the Orange, the Hoyas had to travel to ‘Cuse last season and never got a rematch after suffering a painful overtime defeat. The SEC won’t have that problem going forward. Starting immediately in 2012-13, permanent rivals will see each other twice a year, guaranteed. The rivalry pairings are:

• Kentucky–Florida
• Tennessee–Vanderbilt
• Auburn–Alabama
• Mississippi State–Ole Miss
• South Carolina–Georgia
• LSU–Texas A&M
• Arkansas–Missouri

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1. With the 2011-12 season in the books and with nearly two months to reflect on the season, Drew Cannon of Basketball Prospectus takes a look back at the top 100 recruits (plus) from the class of 2012 and ranks them again based on how they played as freshmen. The rankings themselves are not that surprising since we are assuming you followed college basketball last season. Instead, the interesting angle is how these guys were rated coming out of high school. Now it is entirely possible that some of the over-/underachievers may go back to their previous position, but it is instructive to remember how quickly this can change if your team has an incoming McDonald’s All-American or some lightly regarded incoming freshman.
2. In a move that won’t necessarily swing the balance of power in next season’s national title discussion, but could influence the eventual national champion Louisville picked up a rather nice late addition in the form of former Virginia Tech commit Montrezl Harrell, who backed out of his commitment when Seth Greenberg was fired. Harrell, a 6’8″ four-star power forward, joins an already solid frontline and although we doubt that he will see many minutes overall he should provide an adequate big body next season if either of Louisville’s starters is in foul trouble or is dealing with injuries. His decision to head to Louisville should come as no surprise after Greenberg’s firing as Harrell was originally recruited to his private high school (Hargrave Military Academy) by one of Louisville’s current assistants.
3. The race for Rodney Hood appears to have been narrowed down to two suitors: Duke and Ohio State. The Mississippi State transfer, who averaged 10.3 points and 4.7 rebounds per game as a freshman last season, was one of the most highly coveted transfers available and appears to be taking his time making the decision as he intends to sit out the required one year transfer period. Adding a player of Hood’s size and ability would be a major addition for either program and there is the very real possibility that Hood might stick around that school for all three years that he has left. So while most fans will be focused in on the incoming freshman, Hood might be one of the bigger pawns to move in college basketball this offseason.
4. Most people would view the run Kansas had to become the national runner-up as impressive and something to cherish. Bill Self is not one of those people and he still has not watched a replay of his team’s loss on that Monday night in New Orleans. That is not to say that Self has not kept himself immersed in his work as he has had to redouble his efforts in the wake of a significant part of his staff departing to take new jobs as head coaches of their own programs. While some people may consider Self’s decision not to analyze that loss as somewhat strange it does not seem out of the ordinary to us as you do not win eight straight Big 12 regular season titles by looking at the past.
5. Got $5,000 to spare and looking to associate yourself with mediocrity? If you are then Colorado may have a basketball floor to sell you. The auction has not received a bid at the initial asking price of $5,000. This may seem strange to you given the cost of getting a new floor, which would be several multiples higher, but there is one major caveat: the floor, which was purchased in 1996, is being sold “AS/IS WHERE/IS”, meaning that you will have to transport it to wherever you would want to keep it. If you are wondering why the school does not just give it away to a local high school, it is because it is would be viewed as a violation of NCAA rules. Given all of the complicating factors the most likely home will probably be a local junior college or some Boulder resident with some extra cash and space for a basketball court.

The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Tony Wroten, Jr.

School: Washington

Height/Weight: 6’6”, 205 lbs.

NBA Position: Combo Guard

Projected Draft Range: Mid-First Round

Tony Wroten, Jr. Has Plenty of NBA-Caliber Traits, But Needs To Patch Some Glaring Holes

Overview: Tony Wroten heads into the NBA Draft as one of the most divisive figures in recent memory; if you ask two different people their opinion on him, you’re likely to get two (or more) different takes. For instance, in his lone season in Seattle, there were plenty of people who considered him the best player in the conference and a strong contender for conference player of the year, while there were others (me included) for whom Wroten wasn’t even on the radar for second-team all-conference. There is little doubt that he has all the physical tools necessary to become an excellent NBA player, but to this point in time, for every eye-popping positive that Wroten brings to his team, there is one serious negative to go alongside it. He’s got a great first step and a willingness to get into the lane and try to make plays, often drawing fouls along the way, but once he gets to the line he’s flat out a bad free throw shooter. He’s got brilliant court vision and is able to make spectacular passes to set up teammates for easy hoops, but far too often makes the difficult play rather than the easy one, resulting in a nearly 1:1 assist to turnover ratio. He possesses quick hands and good defensive instincts but gambles far too much leaving himself out of position and his team at a disadvantage. His entire “career” at Washington was summed up in the Huskies’ final Pac-12 Tournament game, where Wroten was spectacular in the second half, scoring 17 of a career-high 29 points, only to miss four straight free throws in the final 18 seconds to effectively end the Huskies’ NCAA Tournament hopes. As of right now, that’s what you get with Wroten; you’ve got to take the good with the bad. But, he’s got the talent to clean up his numerous shortcomings and become an impact player at the next level; it’s a matter of seeing who will roll the dice in the hopes that improvement comes.

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The Big East sent more teams (nine) to last year’s NCAA Tournament than any other conference, while the SEC compiled the best winning percentage (.769) during the Big Dance. The two leagues are squaring off next season in the second annual SEC/Big East Challenge, whose matchups were announced on Friday. With plenty to offer in the form of juggernaut teams and program traditions, the idea of this event should provide great intrigue to the non-conference season, something the Big Ten and ACC have done in their cross-conference challenge for the past 14 years. Next year’s slate doesn’t look nearly as enticing as some were hoping for — UConn, Louisville, and Missouri aren’t participating, while Syracuse is in but wants out – and our SEC microsite broke down the lack of headline games on the schedule. Nonetheless, we can’t overlook this event that allows for top conference teams to play true road games against other power leagues. Last season, Georgetown played at Alabama in one of the most entertaining games of the entire non-conference slate, and that game didn’t garner much publicity at all. The Big East came away victorious, 8-4, in last year’s event. Here’s what the 2012 SEC/Big East Challenge presents us.

Mike Brey and the Fighting Irish Like Their Chances Against the National Champs Next Year (AP Photo)

Youth vs. Experience, Kentucky at Notre Dame (Nov. 29) – Notre Dame returns all five starters from last season; Kentucky returns none. But both teams have high hopes next year, as the Fighting Irish bring back the entire core from a team that went 13-5 in the Big East while the National Champion Wildcats showcase the nation’s number two recruiting class of SEC-ready stars. Both programs have decorated pasts with loyal fanbases; each team is ranked in the RTC preseason Top 25. What’s not to love about this matchup? A Kentucky-Syracuse game would have garnered more hype, but this matchup could produce a better game. Who wins out, the young guns or the vets? We should get a great read on the new crop of UK freshmen in this their first real road test.

Seeking Sweet Revenge, Marquette at Florida (Nov. 29) – These two teams squared off in last year’s Sweet Sixteen, when the Gators ended the Golden Eagles’ season and Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom’s careers. Buzz Williams’ boys are looking for revenge in Gainesville, though both teams will look a lot different from last season. Florida loses its own pair of stars (Erving Walker, Bradley Beal) but Kenny Boynton and Patric Young are back to form one of the nation’s most threatening inside-out duos. Each team must call on a host of young players that showed promise last year but have to step into more prominent roles in 2012-’13. There’s plenty of intrigue in this one, though Florida is the strong favorite at home.

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Welcome to the Big Ten, Cornhuskers. It was not the easiest season for Nebraska to join the ranks of the conference, and the results were apparently not what the school had in mind, as Doc Sadler was fired after season’s end and Tim Miles brought in to lead the team next year. But it’s hard to fault the squad too much coming into the conference in one of its strongest seasons in years. Nebraska really held its own through a pretty formidable non-conference schedule, before struggling (as expected) through conference play. Let’s take a closer look at the year that was:

Beating Indiana qualified as the highlight of Nebraska's season. (J. Hannah/LJS)

• In a nutshell: It was bound to be an adjustment for Nebraska, coming over to the Big Ten from the Big 12, and it certainly was. Senior Bo Spencer was really the Cornhuskers’ only consistent scoring option (leading the team in points with 15.4 PPG) for the worst scoring offense in the conference (60.9 PPG) and the second-worst field goal percentage defense in the Big Ten. They couldn’t rebound on the offensive end, turned the ball over too much, and weren’t great from three-point range, but hey… the Huskers led the conference in free throw shooting percentage. So there’s that.
• Overachievement: For arguably the worst team in the conference to knock off one of the best, just about everything has to go right. That it did on January 18 when the Huskers upset Indiana in Lincoln, 70-69. Nebraska got Indiana at a bad time — it was the Hoosiers’ third straight loss and they were struggling mightily on the road — but it gave the Nebraska students something to savor in their first year in the conference (see photo above). Spencer was fantastic, with a game-high 23 points, and four Huskers scored in double figures, to Indiana’s two. The biggest bonus came on the bench, where Dylan Talley and Jorge Brian Diaz combined for 20 points, 13 rebounds and just two turnovers. Read the rest of this entry »