Rush The Court

Ryan Kish of George Mason Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Colonial Athletic Conference (CAA).

Predicted order of finish:

1. VCU
2. Northeastern
3. George Mason
4. Old Dominion
5. Delaware
6. Georgia State
7. Hofstra
8. James Madison
9. William & Mary
10. UNC-Wilmington
11. Towson
12. Drexel

WYN2K.  Last season was a letdown for the CAA faithful after two seasons of multiple bids and tournament wins over historical powerhouses to becoming a single bid conference with that team losing in a first round rout.  The 2006 and 2007 NCAA tournament victories from George Mason and VCU have set the bar for this conference so that now just getting to the NCAA tournament and avoiding a blowout isn’t the criteria for a successful season anymore.  Last season George Mason looked as if they were riding that magic carpet again, running through the CAA tournament and snagging that automatic bid after a rollercoaster season, only to be sent home early from the Big Dance by the three point onslaught of Notre Dame.  This conference returns 65% of its starters and has some exciting freshmen and transfers entering the mix, but are they poised for another successful March?

Predicted Champion.  VCU (#10 Seed NCAA).  Tough call this season, as always in the competitive CAA, but the pick has to go VCU. Last season the Rams were atop the conference standings all season, only to stumble in the conference tournament. The selection comes mostly because of the experience of head coach Anthony Grant and reigning conference MVP Eric Maynor, whose slaying of Duke in the 2007 NCAA Tournament might have just been a preview of things to come as he enters his senior year.  Sophomore Larry Sanders is another name to watch for this Rams squad as a defensive force in the front court.  Last season Sanders only started half of the season’s games yet led the team in rebounding (5.2) and blocked shots (3.0).  Speaking of Maynor…

Others Considered. Not to be overlooked are the Huskies of Northeastern who return their entire starting lineup and top nine scorers from last season including Matt Janning who could challenge Eric Maynor for conference MVP.  Old Dominion and George Mason have been very successful programs for the conference in recent history as both are well coached and can potentially challenge the likes of VCU and Northeastern.  Make no mistake that this could be another season for the CAA in which an ankle sprain or two in March could determine the conference champion. 

Newcomers.  Last season Delaware was atop the standings for most of the season with the success brought on by transfers Marc Egerson (Georgetown) and Jim Ledsome (Nebraska) becoming eligible.  Look for the same thing to happen at Georgia State this season.  Head coach Rod Barnes (2001 Naismith Coach of the Year), who had to endure a season watching his reserve team of transfer players best his team’s current starters each practice, could be the CAA’s hot new coach this season.  Georgia State returns all-CAA guard Leonard Mendez (16 ppg) who will be surrounded by big school talent with the additions of Trey Hampton and Xavier Hansbro (former player of Barnes at Ole Miss), point guard Joe Dukes (Wake Forest), forward Bernard Rimmer (Mississippi State) and guard Dante Curry (South Florida).  George Mason and UNCW had the best recruiting success this past off-season.  Mason was able to nab point guard Andre Cornelius and forward Ryan Pearson from the lure of the BCS schools while UNCW locked up forward Kevon Moore and guard Jerel Stephson.  All of these are players that could be playing in bigger conferences and are likely the most Division I ready freshmen entering the CAA this year.

Games to Watch. 

• George Mason at VCU  (01.24.09)
• Northeastern at VCU  (01.28.09)
• VCU at Old Dominion  (02.14.09)
• Northeastern at George Mason  (02.14.09)
• Old Dominion at Northeastern  (02.28.09)

RPI Booster Games.  The CAA has had success in recent years against out of conferences foes, both mid-major and BCS. This season the conference favorites don’t have a whole lot of opportunity to make a splash early on but their definitely is some winnable games against some notable programs that could start the multiple bid talk early.

• James Madison at Davidson  (11.17.08)
• Georgia State at Georgia Tech (12.17.08)
• VCU at Oklahoma (12.20.08)
• Winthrop at Old Dominion  (12.20.08)
• Northeastern at Indiana  (12.22.08)
• George Mason at Dayton  (12.30.08)
• Northeastern at Memphis (12.31.08)

Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids.  Fairly likely.  VCU has a real chance of winning an at-large bid this season should they not grab the automatic bid from the conference tournament.  Northeastern’s tough schedule could hinder them from a possible at-large birth. Starting at the end of November the Huskies are on the road five of six games before heading into conference play. Ouch.  George Mason and Old Dominion don’t have much on the OOC slate which would mean they don’t have a lot of margin for error in the early part of their schedules.  With the bottom half of the conference steadily improving, the RPI numbers could be good enough to get a team an at-large bid if they have between 14-16 conference wins. 

65 Team Era.  From 1987-2005, the CAA was a one-bid league.  Of course, that changed in a big way in 2006, when two teams were invited to the NCAA Tournament and George Mason became the greatest Cinderella to make the F4 in history.  Two more teams were invited in 2007, and while only George Mason was invited in 2008, there’s no reason to think that the CAA is not a conference generally on the rise.  The CAA is 15-27 (.357) in the era, which definitely ranks it as one of the higher mid-major conferences.  Hey, we gotta throw it in – this never gets old…

Final Thoughts.  Last season proved that the depth of this conference is improving as annual bottom-feeders James Madison, Delaware and William & Mary all made noise at some point in the season. Look for that trend to continue as even the newest CAA members Georgia State and Northeastern could be contending for the top of the standings come March.  That is not to say the big boys of the conference have declined. George Mason, VCU, Old Dominion, and UNCW all bring more talent this season than the conference has ever seen.  The experience of the coaches on the sideline this season is a big asset for this conference and could spell trouble for opposing teams at the Big Dance. The team(s) that make it to the Big Dance this season could be poised for some not-so-much of an upset victories.

Prediction:  by the end of the first week of December, UNC will no longer be #1 in the major media polls.

No way, there’s too much pressure and they have too many good teams to handle before we even get our advent calendars.  Oh, and did you hear, a small piece of their offense will be out for a while with a stress reaction?  Even if this substantial piece never misses a game, which is extremely unlikely, he’s going to miss practice and be out of ‘game shape’ for a while.  And no, we’re not talking about Marcus Ginyard, but his loss hurts too.

Here’s Carolina’s early schedule – you tell us how they’re going to come out of this unscathed…

• v. Penn  (11.15.08) – easy enough at home, right?
• v. Kentucky (11.18.08) – this home game suddenly becomes extremely interesting if TH is out or still ailing – Patrick Patterson will wipe up the inside.
• @ UCSB  (11.21.08) – UNC fans will remember the west coast stopover game before Maui in 2004-05 well.  Trap game.
• @ Chaminade  (11.24.08) – Maui Invitational first round – easy W.
• v.  Alabama (probably) (11.25.08) – UNC should be careful to not sleep on an athletic Bama team, but will probably win regardless.
• v. Notre Dame/Texas (probably) (11.26.08) – either of these teams could defeat a less-than-full-strength UNC in Maui.
• v. UNC-Asheville  (11.30.08) – easy home win.
• @ Michigan St. (Detroit) (12.03.08) – 40,000 people could watch this game at Ford Field, and UNC will absolutely need to be at full strength to win this game vs. MSU.

There are at least three opportunities for the major upset here, and if Hansbrough and/or Ginyard are out for any of those games, go ahead and mark it down.  UNC will not enter the second week of December #1 and unbeaten.

Now, on to the polls, where UNC was a unanimous #1 in the AP Poll for the first time EVER (nope, not even 1991 UNLV, 1992 Duke or 2007 Florida), and also unanimous in the Coach’s Poll.  No pressure or anything…  FYI – UNC has been preseason #1 six times in its history (incl. this year) – the results of those seasons are: 1982 (Natl. Champs), 1984 (S16), 1987 (E8), 1994 (R32), 2008 (F4) – all that’s missing is a first-round loss or a title game loss.

Here are the polls.

We plan on doing some broader-based analytics of preseason polls in a general sense next week, but for now, here are a few things that we noticed right away.

• Biggest jumps from AP to Coaches – Georgetown (+4) and Duke (+3)
• Biggest drops from AP to Coaches – USC (-3) and Wake Forest (-3)
• Coaches tend to vote by available talent + belief in other coaches’ abilities – what does this say about Tim Floyd and Dino Gaudio in relation to JT3 and Coach K?
• Overrated – UConn, Duke, Oklahoma, USC
• Underrated – Wisconsin, Florida, Georgetown, Gonzaga
• All 25 teams in both polls are duplicates, but it’s interesting that Xavier was #26 in the AP vs. #30 in the Coaches.
• We’re a little surprised to not see St. Mary’s and Baylor ranked over teams like Villanova and Kansas, but whatever, that’s their poll, not ours.
• Alabama gets 16 AP votes but a donut in the Coaches – Mark Gottfried, much?  And LSU is getting too much love for simply getting a new coach.
• Conference Breakdown – Big East (7 + 2 others receiving votes); ACC (4), Big 10 (3), Big 12 (3), Pac-10 (3), SEC (2), CUSA (1), SoCon (1), WCC (1).

What are you going as for Halloween this year?  We hear the Kelvin Sampson costumes are boss in Bloomington…

• You heard about Hansbrough… Tennessee’s JP Prince will also miss the next 3-5 weeks with a shoulder injury. 
• Nevada’s leading returning player Brandon Fields was cleared of any wrongdoing in his shoplifting case – still no word on his suspension, though.
• And the Billy Gillispie Rule is instituted…
• Billy Donovan got a huge pickup with Kenny Boynton’s commitment today.
• Andy Katz gives a fantastic analysis of the Arizona mess on his blog – looks like Mike Dunlap made a stupid mistake in not accepting the head coaching job.  Oh, and former recruit Abdul Gaddy is going to Washington.
• Goodman’s Top 20 freshmen.  Here are CHN’s all-american frosh teams and their mid-major all-americans.  Parrish gives his Top 20 Games to watch before Jan. 8th.
• “The most egregious lack of institutional control ever seen.” 
• In the wake of Lute Olson’s retirement, Arizona loses another player, Jeff Withey, from the freshman class.
• Creighton is the preseason pick by the media and SIDs in the Valley.
• With Demar DeRozan in tow and a weaker Pac-10, we might not want to write off USC just yet.

Shamelessly cribbing from last spring’s very clever NBA catch phrase, we here at RTC will present to you the Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball as we gear up toward the start of the season a little over a month from now.  We’ll be bringing you players to watch for this season and moments to remember from last season, courtesy of the series of dump trucks, wires and effluvia known as YouTube. 

#12 – Where Coast to Coast Happens

Kevin McCarthy from Parsing The WAC and Sam Wasson from bleedCrimson.net are the RTC correspondents for the WAC. 

Predicted Order of Finish:

(Kevin’s Prediction)

1. Nevada
2. Utah State
3. Louisiana Tech
4. San Jose State
5. New Mexico State
6. Boise State
7. Hawai’i
8. Fresno State
9. Idaho

(Sam’s Prediction)

1. Nevada
2. Utah State
3. New Mexico State
4. Louisiana Tech
5. San Jose State
6. Boise State
7. Hawai’i
8. Fresno State
9. Idaho

WYN2K.  The most unusual aspect about the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) in the fast-approaching season is that there is no league favorite. Yes, the usual suspects Nevada, Utah State and possibly New Mexico State could very well finish at or around the top but there’s no bet-the-house team that will run roughshod over the other squads.  Adding some spice to the recipe, Louisiana Tech and San Jose State are now ready to complicate matters and join the big brothers of the league, making it a five-dom vying for the top spot in 2008-2009.  The WAC should be affixed with a ‘high degree of parity’ label but this new season also offers a definite divide: a schism of the five most competitive teams and then the four remaining and re-tooling squads.

Predicted Champion.  The winner can be reached via Highway 80…that’s Nevada (NCAA #12) for the geographically destitute.

Others Considered.  Utah State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State and New Mexico State all offer the possibility of taking the league crown.

RPI Booster Games.  If any of these games become victories for The Big Five of the WAC or Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii and Idaho then it’s a boost to the conference power ranking.

Boise State

• @ BYU  (10.10.08)
• @ San Diego (10.22.08)

Fresno State

• @ St. Mary’s (11.17.08)
• v. UNLV (12.03.08)

Hawaii

• @ Illinois  (12.08.08)

Idaho

• @ Michigan State  (11.16.08) 
• @ Gonzaga  (11.18.08)
• @ Washington State  (12.21.08)

Louisiana Tech

• @ UCLA  (12.28.08)

New Mexico State

• @ USC  (11.18.08)
• @ Kansas  (12.03.08)
• @ New Mexico  (12.23.08)
• v. New Mexico  (12.30.08)

Nevada

• @ San Diego  (11.15.08)
• v. UNLV  (12.06.08)
• v. North Carolina  (12.31.08)

San Jose State

• @ San Diego  (11.08.08)
• @ St. Mary’s  (11.27-28.08)

Utah State

• @ BYU  (12.06.08)
• v. Utah  (12.22.08)

The Circular Firing Squad. In 2008-2009, leaving town to play league opponents will not have any WAC teams cheerily singing of yellow brick roads, more a frosty recital wishing for roads less taken.

Multiple NCAA Bids. It won’t happen this season due to multiple poor non-conference schedules and also because of intra-conference battles that will hemorrhage league win-loss records.

Possible NCAA Success. Not likely as Nevada will be a year of experience and another solid frontcourter away from nabbing at least one Big Dance victory.

NIT.  After the WAC champion heads off to the NCAAs, complete with visions of making it to Ford Field dancing in their heads, look for four NIT invites to be extended to Utah State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State and New Mexico State respectively. Utah State has a string of nine straight postseason bids while Louisiana Tech and San Jose State will be game to host or head anywhere after the WAC tournament in order to extend their seasons, as will New Mexico State.

The Widest WAC Shoulders aka The MVP.  Luke Babbitt. This Nevada freshman will be THE MAN in the frontcourt for Coach Mark Fox. He needs to be as the Wolf Pack has very little firepower at the one and two positions except for him. So how long will it take Reno-ites to label Babbitt as Hot Hand Luke?

WAC All-Leaguers. Gary Wilkinson - Utah State, Brandon Fields – Nevada, Jonathan Gibson – New Mexico State, Magnum Rolle – Louisiana Tech, Adrian Oliver – San Jose State.

Contenders.  Kyle Gibson, Louisiana Tech, Roderick Flemings – Hawaii, Armon Johnson – Nevada, Sylvester Seay – Fresno State, Jahmar Young – New Mexico State, C.J. Webster – San Jose State, Mac Hopson – Idaho

Questions to be answered.

• Can Utah State’s 6′ 9″ Gary Wilkinson dominate this season?
• Who will be the greater contributor for USU, Tai Wesley, Tyler Newbold or will it be equal?
• Will 6′ 10″ Brandon Webster step forward this season or remain a ‘tease’ for Fresno State?
• Can Roderick Flemings average a double-double for Hawaii?
• Will someone step up at the point for Louisiana Tech head coach Kerry Rupp?
• Can oft-injured Richie Phillips and necomers Dario Hunt and Ahyaro Phillips provide enough help upfront for Luke Babbitt at Nevada?
• How long will it take for San Jose State’s Adrian Oliver to discard his rustiness from sitting out?
• Will Johnathan Gibson or Jahmar Young, or both, step up the most for New Mexico State?
• How will the roster turnover at New Mexico State roster affect the team’s chemistry. Five seniors graduated and underclassmen Herb Pope, Jaydee Luster, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Cole, Paris Carter, Johnnie Higgins left the program in the offseason while Wendell McKines left briefly but came back. The Aggies also added Mick Durham as assistant coach to replace Matt Grady.

Did You Know.  The 2007-08 season saw four teams tie for the regular season title at 12-4 (Nevada, Utah State, Boise State and New Mexico State).

Final Thoughts.  Unlike last season, most of the better talents in the WAC should be returning in 2009-2010 as just Gary Wilkinson among the top players completes his eligibility. This bodes well for multi-Big Dance WAC invites down the road, as the league could be a year away from returning to its perch as one of the premier high mid-major conferences.

Big breaking news out of Chapel Hill tonight…  The nation’s top returning player on the unanimous #1 team will be out indefinitely with something called a ’stress reaction‘ of his right shin.  Although the injury isn’t serious as of now, without appropriate rest it could continue to inflame and deteriorate into a much more serious stress fracture of the bone.  From ESPN:

The reigning Associated Press player of the year did not practice Thursday. Instead, he underwent an MRI that revealed the stress reaction, which if not properly treated could lead to a stress fracture, team spokesman Steve Kirschner said.  “He’ll be ok,” Hansbrough’s father, Gene, told ESPN.com’s Andy Katz. “His leg’s been bothering him for a couple of weeks. It’s a stress reaction and he needs to rest a bit. He just needs time to let it heal. There is no reason for him to limp through it.”  According to ESPN medical analysist Dr. Michael Kaplan, the MRI likely showed increased uptake in tibia (leg bone) suggesting a stress reaction. An overload or overuse type phenomenon occurs with inflammation and, ultimately, fatigue failure with stress fracture. This is a precursor condition to stress fracture. A period of rest is mandatory for tissues to quiet down or worsening injury will result.

Psycho T Can’t Wear a Mask For His Shin (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

The timetable for Hansbrough to return to action is officially “indefinitely” but the realistic timeframe sounds like a month or so, which means the Heels will be without two starters (including Marcus Ginyard, out with – what else – a stress fracture) for their game vs. Kentucky, an away game at UCSB, the Maui Invitatonal games (Notre Dame, Texas, Alabama) as well as the ACC/Big 10 Challenge game against Michigan State at Ford Field.  These weren’t going to be easy games for UNC anyway; assuming Hansbrough is out for all of them, they might just lose several. 

More importantly, UNC fans can’t feel comfortable with this news even if Hansbrough appears to be at full strength by January.  Call us a pessimist, but these are the kinds of nagging injuries that warriors like Hansbrough invariably try to come back from too soon, which end up recurring or at minimum never completely healing throughout the rest of the season.  Stay tuned on this story, because if Psycho-T is out or even at half-speed, the 2008-09 season is wide open…

We’ve made it through eighteen of our thirty-one season conference primers so far, and our correspondents continue to top each other with their breadth of knowledge and coverage of the one-bid leagues.  So we want to thank them and once again highlight their fantastic work over the past few weeks by anchoring their primers in one post here, so that you (and we) can easily access them.  Going forward, we’ll primarily be dealing with the traditional multiple-bid conferences or conferences that should expect to see multiple bids this season.  Conference #13 will go up tonight, and we’ll be counting down to tipoff on Nov. 10, when the #1 conference primer will be unveiled. 

• #31 – SWAC  (JC of HBCUSportsBlog)
• #30 – MEAC  (JC of HBCUSportsBlog)
• #29 – Atlantic Sun  (Andrew Baker)
• #28 – Ohio Valley  (Ron Harris)
• #27 – America East  (Corey Johns)
• #26 – Northeast (Ray Floriani of College Chalk Talk)
• #25 – Ivy  (Marty Leon)
• #24 – Big Sky  (Jordan Freemeyer)
• #23 – Patriot  (Marty Leon)
• #22 – Big South  (Mark Bryant of Big South SHOUT)
• #21 – Big West  (Ryan ZumMallen of LBSports)
• #20 – Southland  (RTC)
• #19 – Summit  (Ryan Pravato of College Fast Break)
• #18 – Sun Belt  (Rick Henderson of The Owl’s Nest)
• #17 – MAAC  (Ray Floriani of College Chalk Talk)
• #16 – Southern  (Andrew Baker)
• #15 – MAC  (Greg Miller of WPSD Local 6)
• #14 – Horizon  (Damon Lewis of Horizon League Network)

Also, keep in mind that our correspondents will continue to bring RTC comprehensive coverage of each league throughout the season.  Each of the above leagues will have an update post every two weeks, beginning in mid/late November. 

Shamelessly cribbing from last spring’s very clever NBA catch phrase, we here at RTC will present to you the Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball as we gear up toward the start of the season a little over a month from now.  We’ll be bringing you players to watch for this season and moments to remember from last season, courtesy of the series of dump trucks, wires and effluvia known as YouTube. 

#13 – Where Hoya Paranoia Happens

Damon Lewis, a reporter and play-by-play announcer for the Horizon League Network, is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.  

Predicted Order of Finish.

1. Wright State  (24-6, 15-3)
2. Cleveland State  (21-10, 13-5)
3. Green Bay  (19-12, 11-7)
4. Butler  (16-13, 11-7)
5. Loyola  (20-11, 10-8)
6. UIC  (13-16, 8-10)
7. Milwaukee  (13-16, 7-11)
8. Valparaiso  (12-18, 7-11)
9. Youngstown State  (10-19, 4-14)
10. Detroit  (7-22, 4-14)

What You Need to Know.  It’s been a slow and steady climb for the Horizon League, but the midwestern ten-member league has built itself into a force to be reckoned with on the mid-major college basketball scene.  The buzz word among Horizon League coaches last season was depth, referring to the overall strength of the league from top to bottom.  Nowhere was that more evident than in the fact that four teams (Butler, Cleveland State, Wright State, Valparaiso) topped the 20-win plateau.  Having four 20-win squads was a first for the Horizon League, and led to three of those four competing in postseason play (Butler – NCAA, Cleveland State – NIT, Valpo – CBI).  While having multiple teams competing in the postseason is nothing new in this league, having multiple teams in the NCAA Tournament isn’t yet the “norm,” but it isn’t completely foreign either (3 times in the last 11 years).  What’s the point, you ask?  This league may be even deeper this season, as seven teams return three or more starters from last season, including front-runners Wright State, Cleveland State, and Green Bay.  Butler, by most accounts, is bringing in one of the best recruiting classes the Horizon League has ever seen to go along with reigning Newcomer of the Year, Matt Howard (12.3ppg, 5.5rpg).  Meanwhile, UIC has a favorite for league POY honors in sharpshooter Josh Mayo (17.1ppg, 47% 3fg%), and one of the few true “bigs” in the entire league in 7-footer, Scott VanderMeer (9.3ppg, 7.5rpg).  This could be another year where the Horizon receives multiple NCAA bids, but for the first time in awhile, that at-large bid isn’t likely to have Butler’s name on it (Butler advanced to the S16 as an at-large NCAA bid in 2003 and 2007).  

Predicted Champion.    Wright State  (#11 seed NCAA).  The Raiders have plenty of talent, and trust me, we’ll get to that in a moment.  But the green-and-gold have the ultimate ace in the hole: head coach Brad Brownell.  Brownell, if he really tried, could probably turn the Oakland Raiders into a winner, all while keeping Al Davis satisfied in the process.  Seriously.  Alright, kidding aside, all Brownell has done is win wherever he’s been (including two NCAA appearances in four seasons at UNC-Wilmington).  He won the Horizon League in his inaugural season two years ago, and followed that up with 21 wins and a 3rd-place regular season finish last year.  Admittedly, his team was lacking athleticism and a go-to scorer, but the “other” school in Dayton got it done with grit and commitment on the defensive end, giving up just 60.4 ppg and notching 13 wins in games decided by 5 points or less.  In a guard-dominated league, Wright State returns its entire backcourt.  Vaughn Duggins (HL 1st Team, 13.8 ppg), Todd Brown (12.7 ppg), and 5th-year senior Will Graham (5.9 ppg, 3.5 apg), will lead the way with a three-headed-monster of Ronnie Thomas, Cooper Land, and Gavin Horne battling for time down low.  Two newcomers are expected to see significant minutes from the start.  Scott Grote, a transfer from Duquesne, (9.9 ppg in 29 games as a freshman) and Cory Cooperwood (two-time JUCO All-American at Wallace State CC, 15.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg), will undoubtedly inject energy, electricity, and most importantly, more points into the Wright State attack.  The schedule is solid for a mid-major, but not impressive enough to warrant a single-digit NCAA seed unless the Raiders were to, say, run the table.  

Others Considered.   Cleveland State.  Most prognosticators will likely choose the Vikings as the team to beat this year in the Horizon League, and they may very well be right.  Gary Waters has no doubt turned this program around in just two seasons at the helm, and while his programs have a history of taking major leaps forward in year number three (Kent State, Rutgers), a major leap forward this year will be hard to achieve given the depth in the Horizon League and the Vikings brutal non-conference schedule.  The two unknowns about this squad are: 1) How will they respond to having a target on their back?  And, 2) How will they respond to losses?  After all, they came out of nowhere last year to score 21 wins and finish 2nd in the Horizon League.  But, in late January the Vikes held a two-game lead over Butler in the league standings, only to lose five straight and fall back to the pack.  One thing is for sure, however, J’Nathan Bullock (HL 1st Team, 14.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Cedric Jackson (HL 2nd Team, 13.9 ppg, 4.9 apg) make up the best inside-out combination in the league.  Waters readily admits his team struggled shooting from the perimeter last season (30.2% from 3) and combine that with a trend of using several bodies on the bench — nine players averaged at least 14 mpg and played in at least 33 of 34 games last year — and freshman bombers like Jeremy Montgomery, Josh McCoy, and Charlie Woods could find themselves in crucial roles.  All five starters return in Green Bay, along with coach Tod Kowalczyk’s top two reserves.  Mike Schachtner, Terry Evans, and Rahmon Fletcher each took home Horizon League postseason honors last year.  Senior forward Ryan Tillema is no slouch either.  Battered and bruised, this team struggled to a 15-15 mark last season.  If healthy, the Phoenix will be much improved.  Underachieving again would be a bittersweet way to go out for Schachtner, Evans, and Tillema.  The player to watch at Butler — aside from Matt Howard, whose exploits are well documented (check out #96) — is freshman combo guard, Shelvin Mack.  His maturation process will determine how successful the extremely young Bulldogs will be this season.  Loyola top gun J.R. Blount and the rest of the Ramblers should rebound from a rough season, thanks to a returning core of veterans (four starters).  Valparaiso may be in for a big slide after losing their top two scorers to graduation, and two more major scoring threats in the offseason — Bryan Bouchie and Samuel Haanpaa — who both left the program (Bouchie transfered to Evansville, Haanpaa returned overseas and signed a professional contract).  Here are Butler’s final seconds in last year’s Horizon League championship.

Key Games / RPI Booster Games. 

Cleveland St.:

• @ Washington — 11.18.08 (…tough)
• @ West Virginia — 12.6.08 (…tougher)
• @ Syracuse — 12.15.08 (…toughest) 
• vs. Kent State — 12.23.08 (…a rivalry game to boot!)

Butler: 

• @ Ohio State — 12.13.08
• @ Xavier — 12.23.08 (…a good measuring stick for the Bulldogs)

Green Bay: 

• vs. UMass — 11.29.08
• @ Wisconsin — 12.13.08 (…please re-name: “Dick Bennett Classic”)

Wright State: 

• @ Wake Forest — 12.14.08 (…Wake is rumored to be “back”)
• vs. Oral Roberts — 12.20.08 
• vs. Cleveland State — 12.30.08 
• @ Cleveland State — 1.31.09 

 Loyola: 

• Pre-Season NIT vs. Georgia — 11.17.08 (…guaranteed 4 decent games)
• @ UIC — 12.6.08 
• vs. UIC — 2.27.09 

Valparaiso: 

• vs. North Carolina — 12.20.08 (…in Chicago @ United Center)
• @ Purdue — 12.28.08 

*A complete list of Horizon League contests set to be broadcast by the ESPN family of networks can be found here.  All league contests can be viewed online, for free, on the Horizon League Network. 

Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids.  If Cleveland State can get to their  first showdown at Wright State, (12.30.08) sporting a record of 11-3 or better, then the chances of the Horizon League being a two-bid league are very solid.  Only the Vikings boast a non-conference schedule strong enough that, if they can win a couple of the big games, would compensate for a couple of extra losses in league play.  Of course, if Wright State runs away with the regular season title (or anyone for that matter), an upset in the championship game could also result in multiple bids for this league.  

Did You Know.  Following the 1992-1993 season, University of Michigan assistant coach Perry Watson left Ann Arbor to take over as the head coach at Detroit-Mercy.  The spot vacated by Watson at Michigan was initially filled by Ray McCallum, but McCallum never coached a game at Michigan.  Instead, he returned to his alma mater, Ball State, and became the head coach of the Cardinals.  After a successful run in Muncie, IN, McCallum moved on to lead the University of Houston, followed by assistant coaching jobs at Oklahoma and Indiana.  This past spring, McCallum was hired as the head coach at Detroit, once again filling a void left by Watson, who resigned after 15 seasons with the Titans.  Watson guided Detroit to the NCAA second round in 1998 and 1999, and the NIT in 2001 and 2002.  

65 Team Era.   Let’s get this out of the way right now – over the last decade the Horizon has been the most successful mid-major conference in the NCAA Tournament (defining mid-major as normally a one-bid league).  In six of the last eight tournaments, a Horizon team has won at least one game (with an average seed of #11.1).  Three of those years, a Horizon team played itself into the Sweet Sixteen (Butler – 2003, 2007; Milwaukee – 2005).  Additionally, you wanna talk about a tough out – consider the teams that are knocking out these Horizon squads – three #1 seeds, three #2 seeds, two #3 seeds, including both Florida national champions.  Not bad, not bad at all.  The Horizon’s record of 20-32 (.385) over this era matches up even or better than every one of its peers, and there’s no reason to believe it will end soon. 

Final Thoughts.   It’s hard to imagine a program like Valparaiso finishing 8th, but someone has to end up there in this deep, talented league.  Heck, we haven’t even mentioned Milwaukee yet, as scoring machines Ricky Franklin, Avery Smith, and Deonte Roberts are all back.  While programs like Detroit and Youngstown State seem to be a step behind the rest of the league right now, you can bet they’ll be competitive night in and night out.  If you catch a Horizon League game on television, you won’t be “wowed” by superb athletic ability, but what you will find, for the most part, is team-oriented basketball with disciplined student-athletes who are just as comfortable grinding out a 54-52 victory as they are pushing their team’s point total into the 80s.  The players are skilled, the action is rough, and the future is bright.

The news is coming fast and furious now…

• More preseason conference predictions, this time from the Big 10 – Purdue, Michigan St., Wisconsin.  Purdue’s Robbie Hummel is POY.  A10 – Xavier, Temple, Dayton. 
• Indiana continues to clean up things in the wake of the Kelvin Sanctions fiasco, hiring Fred Glass as the new AD.
• Is Greg Paulus losing his starting PG slot at Duke to Nolan Smith?  Goodman thinks so.  He also thinks that UNC is more vulnerable than people think and Wake has pure talent that is second-to-none.
• Seth Davis believes that Duke is going to be a lot better this year – we remain skeptical about their prospects in March.
• Gary Parrish’s top 20 freshmen to watch in 2008-09, and 10 coaches who are on the hot seat.
• This won’t help recruiting at Quinnapiac in the near future. 

This is not really college basketball-related, but the Round Mound once played at Auburn (fringe benefits included), so we’ll give ourselves a pass here.  This is from Sir Charles’ recent conversation with CNN’s Campbell Brown about the political climate in this country.  In this clip, Brown asks Barkley about his future political aspirations relating to a run for governor in the state of Alabama.  His response is simply phenomenal. 

Brown: So, you gonna run for governor?

Barkley:  I’m planning on it in 2014.

Brown:  You are?

Barkley:  I am.  I can’t screw up Alabama. 

Brown:  There’s no place to go but up…

Barkley:  We’re number 48 in everything, and Arkansas and Mississippi aren’t going anywhere. 

The Chuck Wagon, always cringe-worthy, and always making friends. 

Shamelessly cribbing from last spring’s very clever NBA catch phrase, we here at RTC will present to you the Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball as we gear up toward the start of the season a little over a month from now.  We’ll be bringing you players to watch for this season and moments to remember from last season, courtesy of the series of dump trucks, wires and effluvia known as YouTube. 

#14 – Where Blue Nation Turns Its Lonely Eyes To You Happens

Greg Miller of WPSD Local 6 is the RTC correspondent for the Mid-American Conference.

Predicted Order of Finish:

MAC East

1. Kent  (22-9, 12-4)
2. Miami (OH) (16-13, 11-5)
3. Ohio  (20-9, 10-6)
4. Akron  (16-15, 8-8)
5. Bowling Green  (16-13, 7-9)
6. Buffalo  (12-17, 6-10)

MAC West

1. Western Michigan  (18-12, 10-6)
2. Eastern Michigan  (16-14, 10-6)
3. Central Michigan  (14-15, 9-7)
4. Toledo  (13-17, 6-10)
5. Ball State  (10-19, 4-12)
6. Northern Illinois  (7-22, 3-13)

WYN2K.  The MAC’s new logo is just a small part of the change that the Mid-American Conference is hoping will push their league to the next level.  Seven of the league’s twelve head coaches are either in their first or second year, a sign that it really is a new era in the MAC.  The league is hoping to make the leap that leagues such as the Missouri Valley have made over the past decade.  It’s been ten long years since the MAC has had two teams in the NCAA Tournament.  That was back in 1999 when Kent earned the automatic bid while Miami (OH) picked up the league’s last at-large bid.  They proved very worthy as Wally Szczerbiak carried the RedHawks to the Sweet 16.  But the MAC has not since been able to recapture the glory of 1999.  Yes, they did watch Kent make a run to the Elite Eight in 2002, but it’s been quantity rather than quality that has plagued the MAC in the new century.  Since that multiple bid year of 1999, the league has sat back and watched a number of conferences do what they’ve been unable to do.  We mentioned the Valley, who has been a multi-bid league eight times in the interim.  Additionally, the Mountain West (8), WAC (7), West Coast (5), Horizon (2), CAA (2), Sun Belt  (1) and Big West (1) have all been a multi-bid league at least once.  In order to make that leap to a multi-bid league, the MAC must schedule better and most importantly take advantage of the opportunities they do get against the major conference teams.

Predicted Champion.  Kent (#13 NCAA).  As it’s been 7 of the past 10 years, the winner of the MAC will come from the East.  Just what team from the East remains to be seen?  Miami, Kent and Ohio all should make serious runs at the title, but none would be anything higher than a #12 seed in the Big Dance. 

• As long as Jim Christian was at Kent, the Flash were guaranteed a 20-win season (ten straight).  But Jim Christian left for TCU.  Kent assistant coach and former MAC superstar Geno Ford (Ohio ‘97) takes over the bench for the Flashes, but he will have some familiar faces to help him in his first season.  Guard Al Fisher (13.9 ppg, 4.0 apg) is the first returning MAC Player of the Year since 2002.  Fisher leads a group of eight returners that made up 65.1% of the KSU attack.  Chris Singletary and Jordan Mincy help Fisher solidify the backcourt.  The frontcourt is where Kent will have to fill some holes.  Gone are  Hamminn Quaintance and Mike Scott, both All-MAC performers who averaged over 23 points and 13 rebounds per game. 
• Miami (OH) has veteran leadership on their side.  Charlie Coles, the dean of MAC coaches, is back for his 13th season with the RedHawks and he returns four starters and eleven letterwinners.  The most significant is Michael Bramos, a POY candidate.  Bramos (16.3 ppg) is a sharp-shooter who has the ability to light it up at anytime.  He went for 30+ points four times last year.  His scoring and the RedHawks always-frustrating defense will keep Miami in the hunt all year.  Miami has to find someone to replace the production of All-MAC frontcourt star Tim Pollitz. 
• Ohio might be the longshot of these three, but don’t sleep on the Bobcats.  Like Kent, they have a new head coach in John Groce who comes from Ohio State where he played a big part in the recruiting of Greg Oden and Mike Conley.  It will take Groce some time to work his recruiting magic in Athens, but he does have some talent to work with.  Jerome Tillman (13.3 ppg, 7.6 rpg) might be the best player in the league.  He’s been very solid the past three years for the ‘Cats, posting 18 double-doubles.  The only question with Tillman is can he do it without his tag-team partner of the past two years?  Gone is Leon Williams, who garnered double and triple teams throughout his career in Athens.  Williams opened things for Tillman, but with him gone on the inside, how will Tillman handle the bulk of the attention?  The Bobcats also return senior starter Justin Orr in the frontcourt, a player who has yet to tap into his full potential.  Michael Allen is the only other senior on the team.  He’ll be asked to be a leader on the floor from the point guard spot where he showed flashes of brilliance last year.  The Bobcats must find a way to win on the road if they want to be a serious contender.  They were 7-1 at home in the MAC, 2-6 on the road last season.

Others Considered.  Eastern Michigan hasn’t been dancing since 1998 and hasn’t had a winning season since 1999-00.  So why would we mention the Eagles?  Well, they could be a darkhorse in the West.  All-MAC guard Carlos Medlock returns as well as 2006-07 All-MAC freshman forward Brandon Bowdry who missed all of last year with a stress fracture.  The Eagles did finish second in the West last year at 8-8, so a winning season in 2008-09 is not out of the question.  Western Michigan will be considered the West favorite thanks to the return of All-MAC guard David Kool.  Along with having one of the best names in the MAC, he averaged over 16 points per game.  The Broncos will struggle trying to find a replacement for inside workhorse Joe Reitz.  In the East, Bowling Green and Buffalo could be sleepers.  BG returns almost everyone and has a talented coach in Louis Orr.  Buffalo was only 3-13 in the MAC last year, but they return all five starters and ninth-year head coach Reggie Witherspoon has won in this league before.

RPI Boosters.

The MAC does have a number of games against the BCS schools.  But overall, the league has done a pretty poor job of scheduling.  They’re aren’t nearly enough key games at home.  It’s been an ongoing problem for years in the MAC in trying to get bigger schools to come on-campus and play.  This year is no different.  But with that being said, there are chances to make some noise in the non-conference season.  The league plays quite a few mid-majors including a handful of teams from the MVC and Atlantic 10.  Here is a list of the top 25 games where the MAC really has a chance to put themselves on the map.  The italicized games are the rare times a big school has agreed to play at a MAC school.  If the MAC is able to pull a few upsets in these games, then what those teams do in conference will go a long way in earning them a possible at-large bid. 

• Miami at UCLA  (11.13.08)
• Toledo at Florida  (11.14.08)
• Miami at Pitt  (11.17.08)
• Toledo at Xavier  (11.17.08)
• Eastern Michigan at Purdue (ESPN2)  (11.17.08)
• Akron at Pitt  (11.21.08)
• Bowling Green at Ohio State  (11.24.08)
• Kent vs. Illinois (South Padre Invitational)  (11.28.08)
• Kent vs. Texas A&M/Tulsa (South Padre Invitational)  (11.29.08)
• Miami at Xavier  (11.29.08)
• Kent at Kansas (ESPNU)  (12.01.08)
• Central Michigan at Marquette  (12.02.08)
• UMass at Toledo  (12.03.08)
• St. Mary’s at Kent (12.04.08)
• UConn at Buffalo  (12.04.08)
• Ohio at Louisville  (12.07.08)
• Purdue at Ball State  (12.09.08)
• Ohio at Xavier  (12.10.08)
• Eastern Michigan at Michigan  (12.13.08)
• Western Michigan at UNLV  (12.14.08)
• Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois  (12.17.08)
• Miami at WVU  (12.20.08)
• Houston at Toledo  (12.20.08)
• Western Michigan at Southern Illinois  (12.22.08)
• Eastern Michigan at Illinois  (12.28.08)
• Central Michigan at Kentucky  (12.29.08)

The league is set up for teams to open with five division games, six cross-division games and then five division games to finish.  So we’ll have a good idea of the front-runners in both the East Division and West Division by late January.  It also sets up for some potentially big games in late February/early March to decide the division races.  On paper, the East Division is again stronger than the West Division.  The Michigan directional schools will all get their cracks at the East to prove otherwise in late January.

• Kent at Ohio  (01.11.09)
• Ohio at Miami  (01.14.09)
• Miami at Kent  (01.17.09)
• Eastern Michigan at Kent  (01.27.09)
• Kent at Western Michigan  (01.31.09)
• Miami at Eastern Michigan  (01.31.09)
• Eastern Michigan at Ohio  (02.07.09)
• Ohio at Western Michigan  (02.11.09)
• Bowling Green at Toledo  (02.11.09)
• Western Michigan at Miami  (02.14.09)
• Miami at Ohio  (02.16.09)
• Ohio at Kent  (02.17.09)
• Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan  (02.18.09) 
• Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan  (02.28.09)
• Kent at Miami (03.01.09) (could decide East champion)
• Central Michigan at Western Michigan  (03.08.09)

Neat-O Stat.  If history is any indicator, Kent will be there in the end.  They’ve played in the MAC Tournament title game 7 of the last 10 years, winning five of them.

Hello, My Name Is…

The league has 7 coaches who are either in their first or second years.

First-Year Head Coaches

• John Groce – Ohio
• Geno Ford – Kent
• Gene Cross – Toledo

Second-Year Head Coaches

• Louis Orr – Bowling Green
• Ernie Ziegler – Central Michigan
• Billy Taylor – Ball State
• Ricardo Patton – Northern Illinois

Veteran Coaches

• Charlie Coles – Miami (13th year)
• Reggie Witherspoon – Buffalo (9th year)
• Keith Dambrot – Akron (5th year)
• Charles Ramsey – Eastern Michigan (3rd year)
• Steve Hawkins – Western Michigan (6th year)

65 Team Era.   There’s a reason every coach gets a lump in his throat when the brackets first come out and he sees a MAC team opposite his sqaud, and it’s not necessarily because he thinks they’re going to lose.  Rather, if history is any indication, he’s likely to win the first-round game, but he’s in for an all-out war in doing so.  Despite an average seed of #11.9 throughout the era, MAC teams play their first-round opponents very tough, losing by 12 pts or less in all but seven of their first-round matchups.  The overall conference record of 15-29 (.341) with four trips to the Sweet Sixteen isn’t too shabby either.  Unfortunately for MAC fans, however, the conference is on a five-year streak of first-round losses, which is the longest such streak of the era.

Final Thoughts. 

• While the MAC desperately wants to make the move to the next level and earn multiple NCAA bids, the reality is, this might not be the year for that to happen.  The league lost a lot of star power from last year and with a ton of new coaches, it might be a year or two before this league really starts to take off and maybe even return to the form of the late 1990s where they were not just earning NCAA bids, but winning NCAA games.  2008-09 will be like most years in the MAC.  Once they get to conference play, it will be an all-out war with teams beating up each other.  That makes it tough to earn an at-large out of this league.  Despite the top-heavy league records, the MAC is a tough league to win within, especially on the road. 
• On a more positive note, this league is getting better.  You will see some budding coaching stars in Geno Ford, John Groce and Gene Cross.  Not to mention a few coaches who have been around the block that know a thing or two about winning like Charlie Coles, Ricardo Patton and Louis Orr.  They do have stars to replace, but there are stars ready to shine.  Keep an eye on Jerome Tillman (Ohio), Michael Bramos (Miami), Al Fisher (Kent), Carlos Medlock (EMU), Tyrone Kent and Boomer Tucker (Toledo) and David Kool (WMU).
• This might not be a league who earns multiple NCAA bids in 2008-09, but they will make noise out of conference.  Miami always gives people fits.  Ohio is usually good for an upset.  Kent has been rock-solid for the last decade.  And with the much-improved Bowling Greens, Eastern Michigans and Toledos of the world, the MAC could jump up and surprise a big boy or two if they’re not careful.

We’re experiencing Lute Olson fatigue around here lately, but we wouldn’t be doing our job if we didn’t put a period on this story by reporting what Olson’s physician revealed to the world in a press conference today.  Dr. Steven Knope stated that Olson was being treated for severe depression and impaired judgment for several months and had not responded favorably when an MRI taken early last week showed that Olson had endured a stroke in his frontal lobe at some point within the past year.  Dr. Knope impressed upon Olson to retire from coaching, which he did last Thursday.  From the East Valley Tribune:

“He is frankly devastated,” Knope said. “This is something that is simply beyond his control.”  [...] Knope said he had advised Olson in recent weeks to step down from his head coaching position, saying Olson “just couldn’t put the pieces together.”  Knope decided to request an MRI for Olson because he wasn’t responding to therapy and medication for depression.  “He knew something was wrong, but he couldn’t quite put his finger on it,” Knope said.

(Photo Credit: Tucson Citizen)

The doctor stated that Olson was otherwise in good health (he has a familial tremor and atrial fibrillation that are being treated), but there were concerns that additional stress from coaching could lead to more problems with his already-compromised judgment.  For Arizona fans, they can finally move on and put the mess Olson left in his wake behind them.  Already the Class of 2009 recruits are looking elsewhere, and the new interim coach was last seen stalking the sidelines in AAU ball, but there is a strong enough foundation there for continued success supposing the right person (Mark Few?  John Calipari?  Jamie Dixon?) is hired to lead it.

Oh, and stay well, Lute.  Strokes are no joke.  We hope he can continue to live a life of freedom and facility.   

This is verrrry interesting.  The ACC, in all of its infinite basketball wisdom, is reportedly set to propose NCAA legislation that will allow players considering the NBA draft only ten days from the date of the NCAA Championship game to decide on whether they’re staying at Mother So Dear another year or leaving for the riches of the D-League Europe NBA.  From the Raleigh News & Observer:

The ACC plans to propose NCAA legislation that would force men’s basketball underclassmen to decide whether they are in the NBA Draft within 10 days after the NCAA title game.  ACC officials are considering submitting the proposal in time for an NCAA Board of Directors meeting on Thursday. If they wait, officials said Sunday, they will propose the idea next July.  Under the proposal, “there would be no grace period — either you’re in or you’re out,” said Karl Hicks, the ACC’s associate commissioner for basketball operations. “We feel that’s what would work best for the student- athletes and that’s what would work best for the coaches.”

Best for the coaches, we see…  yeah, this has the Roy and K’s dirty little hands all over it.  Last year’s players had 21 days to decide to go pro, but another 49 days after that to withdraw if they liked.  That gave them plenty of time - the ACC would say way too much time – to go through predraft workouts, talk to agents, GMs and other NBA people, and effectively gauge their overall draft stock before making a final decision.  And letting a kid have time to get informed about the most important decision of his life is a bad thing? Here’s a shortened list of players who used the information they garnered to make a sound decision during last year’s ‘testing the waters’ period, all were considered marginal first-round (read: guaranteed contract) prospects.

• Ty Lawson, UNC
• Lee Cummard, BYU
• Wayne Ellington, UNC
• Lester Hudson, UT-Martin
• AJ Abrams, Texas
• Robert Dozier, Memphis
• Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga
• Josh Akognon, Cal St. Fullerton
• Danny Green, UNC
• Robert Vaden, UAB

How different might their teams have looked if all of these players had kept their initial decision to leave school intact?  On the final day of NBA training camp cuts, where would these players be now?  Time is fleeting, but we suppose that everyone has forgotten how we got to the ‘test the waters’ rule in the first place.  In the mid-90s, the NCAA decided that players should actually have a chance to, gasp!!!, learn about the draft process and their draft stock PRIOR to being locked into declaring (and henceforth throwing away their remaining college eligibility on mere whimsy).  Imagine that – rather than hearing from their girlfriend’s second cousin about an ‘agent’ who thinks he has enough game for the L, Mr. Star Player was given a chance to actually make that determination himself. According to the RN&O article, this was taken into consideration:

Hicks said the ACC’s eight-member men’s basketball subcommittee, which included Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton and Virginia’s Dave Leitao, discussed whether the time period may be too short for players to make proper choices. However, he said, “there’s a sentiment that the longer the time goes on, the longer the lure of the NBA becomes more real in their mind, and they tend to make decisions based not on information that they’re necessarily getting from NBA teams or from coaches, but from other people. The notion is that if you do this and it does get passed, there could be some kids that make bad decisions, rushing into it. But there’s another thought that if that happens, after a year or two, then those that are coming after that would be all the wiser.”

Did Anyone Consult the Players on This?

Hogwash.  Actually, Mr. Hicks, the exact opposite occurs.  When a player feels rushed to make a decision, he is more likely to not gather all the appropriate information and listen to all the wrong people – i.e., the idiots and hangers-on closest to him with dollar signs in their eyes.  Clemson’s KC Rivers, an actual PLAYER on an actual team with other players that this rule would impact, nails it:

Clemson senior K.C. Rivers, who briefly pondered submitting his name last April, said he disagreed with the legislation because he doesn’t think it will give players enough time to gather information from NBA teams and make an informed decision. “If this rule had been in effect [last spring] … I would probably have not been back at Clemson,” he said.

So congrats are in order for Roy, Coach K, and all the other ACC coaches who find it reprehensible for an athlete to have a proper amount of time to make an informed decision on his future (sidenote: 70 days may be too long, but 10 days is way too short).  Perhaps the next time you make a life decision, you’ll appreciate having someone rushing you through the process as well.  Oh, it hurts your recruiting?  How so?  Name one player who actually would have contributed to your program you were unable to recruit because of this rule – just one.

We’re barely over a week into practice and there’s already been some talk that this year’s version of the Big East, with as many as four legitimate F4 contenders (UConn, Pitt, Louisville & Notre Dame) and another five or six legitimate NCAA Tournament teams, could be the deepest, most competitive conference of all-time.  When put in those terms, it’s difficult to disagree… but you know us, we don’t take kindly to sweeping claims of superiority without some measurable statistical basis to back it up.

(photo credit: Bob Eckstein)

The problem is figuring out how to measure such a thing.  Take last year’s Pac-10, for example.  The conference was widely considered by pundits to be the strongest, deepest conference in America.  Computer ratings tended to agree.  At various points during the season, as many as eight of its ten schools were touted as NCAA-caliber teams.  Six ultimately were invited to the NCAA Tournament, but only three of those made it to the Sweet Sixteen, with UCLA the sole conference representative in the Final Four.  Was the Pac-10 stronger than the Big East, who had six teams ranked in the final AP poll last year (vs. three for the Pac-10) and had two more teams invited to the Big Dance but only found itself with a pair standing on the second weekend (and zero in the F4)?  Or was the Pac-10 superior to the Big 12, who had the strongest NCAA showing of the major conferences with a 6-0 first round ultimately resulting in Kansas cutting down the nets?  It’s hard to say, because depending on how you set the parameters, you can make fair and defensible arguments for the strength of multiple conferences in any given year (our friends dealing with the BCS go through this every year). 

Just thinking back to last season, we could break it down this way.  AP poll?  Big East.  NCAA Tournament success?  Big 12.  Computer rankings?  Pac-10.  Pundits?  Take your pick, but leaning Pac-10.    Choosing which source to buy into is based on personal taste, but for the sake of this post, we’ll admit that there is no perfect measurement and focus exclusively on Jeff Sagarin’s computer ratings.  Using his data, we like that we can take stock year over year in relative terms.

(photo credit: sportsbubbler.com) 

So here’s our question: how good does the Big East need to be from top-to-bottom this year to be statistically considered the top conference of the last decade (Sagarin’s archive only goes back to the 1998-99 season – we requested data back to 1984-85, to no avail)?  For the sake of comparison, here are the top ten conferences by Sagarin’s computer ratings of the last ten years.   

As you can see, the 2008 version of the Big East wasn’t bad from top-to-bottom, but it was still a good distance away from the top ten conferences of the last decade.  The problem is that when people talk about how strong conferences are, are they really talking about team #10 or team #12 or team #16 in the cellar?  Of course not – they’re really talking about the NCAA-caliber teams, i.e., the top half of the conference.  So how does this list change if we only consider the top half of the major conferences of the last ten years (also represented graphically)?

It’s interesting to imagine if the Big East were still an eight-team conference like the old days, as last year’s top half alone would have rated the league as the second-best conference of the last decade (2004 ACC at 87.31 would still be #1).  As it stands, though, the Big East’s mammoth size probably ensures that from a statistical standpoint (Law of Large Numbers, much?), it will never be able to have enough great teams to overcome what some of the smaller conferences have been able to do.

Nothing is conclusive here, but we feel safe in saying that the 2008-09 Big East is unlikely to rise to the top of either of these lists, but it wouldn’t shock us if the conference ended up in the top ten (esp. the top-half list).  Notwithstanding where the conference Sagarin ratings finish, there shouldn’t be any question using the eyes and ears test that the Big East will be the most competitive and interesting conference in America this season.

Shamelessly cribbing from last spring’s very clever NBA catch phrase, we here at RTC will present to you the Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball as we gear up toward the start of the season a little over a month from now.  We’ll be bringing you players to watch for this season and moments to remember from last season, courtesy of the series of dump trucks, wires and effluvia known as YouTube. 

#15 – Where A Tall Goofy Dude Gets The Roll Happens

Andrew Baker is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Sun and Southern conferences.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Davidson Wildcats  (22-6, 19-1)
2. College of Charleston Cougars  (20-10, 15-5)
3. UT-Chattanooga Mocs  (19-13, 14-6)
4. Georgia Southern Eagles  (18- 11, 13-7)
5. Appalachian State Mountaineers  (17-12, 13-7)
6. Elon Phoenix  (14-13, 11-9)
7. UNC-Greensboro Spartans  (14-15, 11-9)
8. Furman Paladins  (13-16, 8-12)
9. Samford Bulldogs  (13-16, 7-13)
10. Western Carolina Catamounts   (10-20, 7-13)
11. Wofford Terriers  (9-20, 6-14)
12. The Citadel Bulldogs  (10-21, 4-16)

WYN2K.  In 1921, the Southern Conference was founded with a hodgepodge of future SEC and ACC members.  Since the league has hosted many different schools who have left for other conferences, the only constants since 1936 have been The Citadel and Furman (Davidson left for three seasons from 1988-1991).  Since 1921, the SoCon has never had two bids into the NCAA Tournement.  That’s the entire history we’re talking about boys and girls, not just in the modern era.  Last year was the best chance the SoCon has seen in a while.  Had Elon beaten Davidson in the conference tournament finals, it would have been a tough justification to leave the Wildcats out.  Davidson looks to be on track for another title, but upsets do happen and should Davidson have the same kind of regular season they had last year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the first two-bid SoCon ever.       

Predicted Champion.  Davidson (#8 NCAA).  The Davidson Wildcats were one of the best teams in the country in the year.  There are several good reasons for this.  Most people will point to one man: Stephen Curry (25.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg) (see one of his explosions last year vs. Chattanooga below).  It is true that having Curry on any team would make them very hard to beat, but Coach Bob McKillop has built a team that is more concerned with ball control and defense.  It also helps that Davidson scored at a clip of 80.9 ppg last year.  Looking at their numbers makes it easy to realize how they went 20-0 in SoCon play last year.  Their numbers last year were astounding, and are the underlying reason they were able to make it to the Elite Eight and one shot away from the Final Four.  Davidson gave up 11.6 to/g and forced their opponents into 16.2 to/g.  That’s a turnover rate of 24% for their opponents as opposed to 16.5% for Davidson, both good for 12th in the nation.  Check it here if you don’t believe me.  Look for Davidson to use ball control and their not so secret weapon, Curry, to continue to dominate the league.  It is very difficult to say whether or not the Davidson is going to sweep the league as they did last year because their 20-0 record was the first time any team in the Southern Conference has won twenty games in league play.  It will be hard to go through the season unbeaten again, as every team who will play the ‘Cats will bring their A game, and even with the addition of Samford, the league’s 12th team, teams will still play a 20-game conference slate.

Others Considered.  Who are we kidding, no team is going to get the #1 seed for the Southern Conference Tournament unless something terrible happens to Stephen Curry.  However, the beauty of the oldest conference tournament in the land is that everyone gets a chance at redemption and glory. 

• College of Charleston looks to be in the best position to pull off an upset down the road.  The Cougars return all of their starters from last season and are led by the 1990 Naismith Coach of the Year, Bobby Cremins.  The Cougars will need to see improvement in their ball control and defensive capabilities if they are to succeed Davidson to the throne.  More turnovers to assists (.910 A/TO) and a turnover rate of 19.6% of the time killed the Cougars in close games last year.  In every game that CofC lost last year by less than 10 points, the Cougars had more turnovers than their opponents.  Their defensive prowess was only mediocre, ranking at 192nd in the land with their opponents connecting on 44.3% of their shots.  Look out for CofC if there is early season improvement in these areas. 
• UT-Chattanooga also looks to be in a advantageous position for a deep SoCon tourney run.  The Mocs excelled in shooting (45.9% FG) and on the boards last year.  However, turnovers caused them to have a less than impressive 18-13 record last year.  Turning the ball caught up with them, as was the case when the Mocs’ 7-0 SoCon start ended in a disappointing 6-7 record the rest of the way.  The Mocs horrific turnover rate was 24.2% and landed them worst in the SoCon and 317th in the nation.  The Mocs are hoping that incoming freshmen Jasper Williams will provide some depth at the one slot.  If the Mocs don’t see improvement in the turnover category then look for them to slump to another disappointing season. 

Important Games/RPI Boosters.  The Southern Conference will also be looking to improve their OOC record against the major and money leagues, as SoCon teams were only 5-24 against the BCS conferences plus CUSA and Mtn West last year.  However, the SoCon did much better against their mid-major brethren with a record of 30-27 against their contemporaries.  Like most mid-major leagues, the most important game of the season is the SoCon Tournament Final on Monday, March 9th, 2009.  However, there will be plenty of intrigue as the regular season moves forward.  Davidson has again loaded their non-conference schedule with big boys and should they win one or more of those games there is no reason to believe they can get a higher seed than this preview has listed.  The 7th of January could be huge if Davidson and College of Charleston can pull off huge upsets against the boys from Durham and Chapel Hill, respectively.  Here are some important conference and RPI booster games that you should keep an eye out for:

• Chattanooga @ Tennessee   (11/15/2008)
• Chattanooga @ Missouri  (11/17/2008)
• Chattonooga @ Memphis  (11/20/2008)
• Winthrop @ Davidson  (11/21/2008)
• Elon @ Virginia Tech  (11/26/2008)
• South Carolina @ CofC  (11/28/2008)
• NC State v. Davidson  (12/6/2008)
• Davidson v. West Virginia  (12/9/2008)
• Davidson @ Purdue  (12/20/2008)
• Chattanooga @ Alabama  (12/22/2008)
• Davidson @ Duke   (01/07/2009)
• CofC @ North Carolina  (01/07/2009)

Neat-o Fact.  36.  Davidson currently has the longest conference winning streak in the country dating back two seasons.  The last conference loss the Wildcats had was against Appalachian State on January 20, 2007, by a score of 81-74.  Their first conference game is on the 13th of December, meaning the between the time of their last loss and that game that the country will have elected a new President and a new Congress, two world champions have been crowned in every professional and amateur sport, and nearly 13% of Division I members have seen a coaching change.    

65 Team Era.  With Davidson’s three wins last year on its run to the E8, the conference doubled its win total to six during the modern era (6-24, .200).  That record, however, belies just how tough the SoCon representative has traditionally been in the NCAA Tournament first round.  From ETSU to College of Charleston to UT-Chattanooga to Davidson, SoCon teams have made many high seeds sweat bullets to survive and advance, as nine of the twenty-one first round losses of the era were ‘close’ losses (<10 pts), and five of those were a mere possession away (<4 pts), despite a relatively poor average seed of #13.7 over the period. 

Final Thoughts.  While many people will only see the Southern Conference as Davidson’s to lose, there will be other interesting story lines that you should pay attention to that could have effects through this season and spill over into future seasons.  College of Charleston returns all starters from a season that will only be remembered as the season that broke a long streak of winning seasons, and should challenge for the conference tournament title.  Chattanooga will be looking for more consistent point guard play in an attempt to build on season that saw a great beginning but crashed as ball control killed in the long run.  In conclusion, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the first two bid Southern Conference in history should Davidson be upset in the Conference Tournament.     

(h/t to College Hoops Net for this find of Charlotte’s Charlie Coley figuring out inventive new ways to dunk at Midnight Madness last week)

Ok, we’ve got the Midnight Madness nonsense past us, and now we’re officially two weeks away from the first game… 

• Somewhat surprising turn of events in Tucson in the wake of Lute Olson’s retirement.  The presumptive next coach, Mike Dunlap, reportedly turned down the interim coaching offer, and instead Russ Pennell (a longtime assistant at Arizona St., of all places) will take over the (interim) reins at Arizona.
• Didn’t see this coming…  UNC was picked #1 in the ACC by, um, everyone.   Over in the WCC, Gonzaga was picked first also, but only slightly ahead of St. Mary’s. 
• Injury Update.  Cincy’s frosh PG, Cashmere Mafia Wright, tore his ACL in practice and will be out for the season.   He was expected to play a big role for the Bearcats this season.  Marshall’s starting PF, Tyler Wilkerson, broke his hand and will miss about three weeks.
• Central Michigan’s top rebounder, Marcus Van, was dismissed from the team for a violation of team rules.   
• Here’s Parrish’s Top 30 wings for this season.
• Cleveland St. head coach Gary Waters inked a five-year extension today after making the NIT last year.