This Weekend’s Lede – What makes the official start of March Madness? Saturday, March 3, which included 105 total games, three conference tournament championships, and 15 ranked teams playing their regular season finales definitely felt like the appropriate start date. Sunday saw eight more ranked teams play and one more conference tournament decided. It was a wonderful start to Championship Week that included both the usual (Murray State won the OVC) and the unexpected (Wichita State, Iona, and Middle Tennessee all lost before the title game) that makes our sport so much fun to watch. All regular season games but one Ivy contest are now completed, so the power leagues start up their own conference tournaments in the next couple of days. Over the course of the next week we will find out 27 more automatic bid winners and the 37 at-large teams to fill out the NCAA Tournament bracket. Let’s start by rehashing what took place over the weekend, and who looks good to go dancing. We start in the Big Ten…

Your Watercooler Moment. Buckeyes Victory Means a Three-Way Tie for Big Ten Supremacy 

Who said that Ohio State blew its chance at a Big Ten title last week with its loss to Wisconsin? Well, we were actually guilty of thinking the same, as Michigan State had built a two-game lead with two games to play in the conference season. But after losing at Indiana, the Spartans needed to defend their home court and defeat Ohio State in Sunday’s regular season finale if they wanted the outright Big Ten championship. The Buckeyes had other ideas, as they came back from down double-digits in the second half to eventually win on a game-winner with one second remaining. William Buford’s jumper not only evened Ohio State with Michigan State at 13-5 in the conference, but it also means that Michigan’s 13-5 record holds up as a third team atop the Big Ten. These three teams all slipped up at home late in the season, but none was more costly than this Michigan State loss with the outright title and a likely NCAA Tournament #1 seed on the line. The Big Ten Tournament will be as great to watch as ever before, with so many teams jockeying for postseason inclusion or seeding position, and three teams all as co-favorites. In the tiebreaker scenarios, Michigan State comes out victorious as the regular-season champion and #1 seed, but all three split their season series and can stake a legitimate claim as league champ.

Top Storyline – North Carolina Exacts Revenge on Duke. If it weren’t for Austin Rivers’ buzzer-beating three on February 8, then North Carolina would currently be on a 13-game winning streak in ACC play with a +13.6 average scoring margin in those games. The Tar Heels got revenge on Duke for that shot and made sure everyone remembers how great this team is as UNC throttled Duke from the outset of Saturday night’s regular season finale. The Tar Heels jumped out to an 18-5 lead in under four minutes, wound it all the way up to a 24-point advantage at halftime, and finished it off with an 88-70 blowout victory going away. Duke has struggled in Cameron Indoor Stadium this season, but nothing like this, in which the road team was superior in every facet of the game. The Tar Heels’ entire starting lineup finished with at least 12 points, Kendall Marshall dished out his usual 10 assists, and John Henson and Tyler Zeller each had 10 rebounds. Carolina is the ACC champion and peaking at the right time of year.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. William Buford stole Draymond Green’s spotlight on Senior Day in East Lansing on Sunday. Buford drilled a jumper during the final seconds to lead Ohio State to a Big Ten title tie with Michigan State and Michigan. He scored 25 points during the pivotal road win. Thad Matta‘s team had a huge week with tough wins at Northwestern and Michigan State. The Buckeyes have finally shown that they have the mental toughness to do well in March.
2. Draymond Green can deal with losing the final home game of his career at Michigan State. But Branden Dawson‘s injury during the game is more concerning for Green and the Spartans as they head into postseason play. Reports state that Dawson tore the ACL of his left knee and might be out for rest of the season. Not only will Tom Izzo miss Dawson’s 8.5 points per game and 4.6 rebounds per game; but his defense will be sorely missed as the Spartans look forward to the NCAA Tournament.
3. Even though Bruce Weber might not be wanted in Champaign, sources indicate that his prior employer, Southern Illinois might be interested in hiring him back to coach in Carbondale, Illinois.  Southern Illinois fired their coach and Weber’s protege, Chris Lowery, after two frustrating seasons that resulted in no tournament appearances. Illinois finished the Big Ten season by losing 11 out of the last 13 games as they got crushed in Madison, 70-56 on the road to a Wisconsin team that is surging at the right time.
4. Speaking of Wisconsin, Bo Ryan continued his streak of wins on Senior Day in Madison as they beat Illinois.  Ryan has never lost a game on Senior Day during his time with the Badgers. Seniors Rob Wilson and Jordan Taylor chipped in 8 points and 16 points respectively during their win on Sunday. After their big win against Ohio State on the road last weekend, Bo Ryan’s squad seems to be getting their act together as they prepare for postseason action.
5. John Beilein is a hero in Ann Arbor today. Michigan won their first Big Ten regular season title for the first time since the 1985-1986 season. The Wolverines were in transit from State College during the pivotal Ohio State – Michigan State game on Sunday afternoon.  They watched the final minutes of the game after reaching Ann Arbor including William Buford’s cold-blooded shot that gave them a share of the Big Ten championship.

1. Regardless of how Indiana performs in the postseason, Tom Crean can assure the Hoosier faithful that their season tickets are worth something.  Indiana continues to be a monster in Assembly Hall as they took down the third team ranked in the top five this season as they rocked Michigan State 70-55 last night.  Crean finally got his former mentor, winning his first game against Tom Izzo’s Spartans after nearly four seasons in Bloomington. The win is a huge boost to his team’s confidence as they prepare for their season-ending matchup against in-state rival Purdue over the weekend.
2. William Buford, Thad Matta is looking for you to lead over the next two games. There are several theories about Ohio State’s recent slump (the Buckeyes have lost three out of their last five games) but these are the times when a veteran guard steps up for his team.  Buford struggled in two of the losses as he scored in single digits — six points against Michigan and four points against Michigan State.  Look for Buford to be aggressive when Matta’s team travels to Evanston to face a hungry Northwestern team who could lock up an NCAA bid with a win on Wednesday night.
3. Minnesota head coach Tubby Smith is showing signs of tiredness. He admits that team morale is down as a result of the Gophers’ recent losing skid and their loss to Wisconsin last night did not help make anything better. The Gophers had a strong first half as they led 23-16 but could not contain a hot shooting Badger squad in the second half.  Senior center Ralph Sampson, III, crossed 1,000 points for his career and should receive a good sendoff against Nebraska in Minneapolis over the weekend.
4. Even though Iowa’s senior guard Matt Gatens has never made the NCAA Tournament, he is getting well-deserved recognition during his final few weeks of college.  Gatens was named the player of the week in the Big Ten because he averaged 27.5 points over two games last week.  Regardless of what happens over the next 10 days, Gatens ought to be happy for leaving Iowa on a high note as Fran McCaffery’s squad has shown great resilience throughout the season.
5. Bo Ryan knows when to loosen up around his players.  He has a grin on his face during most of his press conferences after Big Ten games.  But after Wisconsin’s upset victory over Ohio State on Sunday, Ryan decided to do his version of the electric slide in the locker room.  The Badgers played an excellent game against the Buckeyes and the win should give them the credibility to make a case for a great seed in March.

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Somewhat unbelievably, the second-to-last regular season Saturday is upon us. Plenty of big time and bubble games are on the schedule as the stretch run really heats up.

#3 Missouri @ #4 Kansas – 4:00 PM EST Saturday on CBS (*****)

• The final Border War game promises to be another terrific display of basketball between two top five teams that really don’t care for one another. Missouri won the first meeting between these teams, but to do it again it will have to defend at a higher level. Both teams shot over 50% at Mizzou Arena three weeks ago, but Kansas has been the better defensive team all season long. Now playing at home in virtually impenetrable Allen Fieldhouse, the Jayhawks have to like their chances in this one. Kansas has a huge rebounding and size advantage in the paint with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey going up against Ricardo Ratliffe. While Ratliffe is a great finisher around the bucket, he was held to six points in the first meeting, limited by foul trouble in only 20 minutes of action. Kansas can neutralize Ratliffe and force Missouri to make shots. Missouri hit 10 threes in the first meeting, led by Marcus Denmon’s six. Kansas will have to tighten up a three point defense that ranks #173 nationally in order to prevent that from happening again.
  

  Can Denmon & The Tigers Rebound?

• Denmon’s 29-point effort against Kansas on February 4 lifted him out of a slump and his high level of play has continued since then. Denmon and Kim English have to make shots or else Kansas will have a significant edge in this game. The Jayhawks should be dominant inside with Robinson going against Ratliffe with Withey by his side. Kansas is one of the best teams in the nation in two point percentage. Defensively, Bill Self has to be worried about the three point line. While Kansas is a very efficient defensive team, they can be beaten from the arc. Missouri is certainly a team capable of doing that as it moves the ball well and has a multitude of deep threats lining the perimeter. Frank Haith needs a good game at point guard out of Phil Pressey, otherwise Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor could take over the game quickly as they did against Baylor at the Phog. Taylor has had an outstanding senior season but is vulnerable to turnovers. Look for Missouri to target him defensively in order to prevent him from getting into a rhythm and setting up the Jayhawk offense.
•  The big question mark here is can Missouri defend at a high level against an elite opponent on the road? The Tigers are last in the Big 12 in three point defense and their overall efficiency rating leaves a lot to be desired. Kansas is going to get its points inside but is not a particularly great outside shooting team. However, Taylor poses a big threat and must be held in check if Missouri is going to beat Kansas in a place where almost nobody wins. Until proven otherwise, we can’t pick against the Jayhawks in such an emotionally charged game as this one.

Read the rest of this entry »

Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference. Follow him on Twitter (@Bill_Hupp) for his thoughts on hoops, food, box fans and life.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was

• Boiling Over: Give credit to Matt Painter for making a difficult decision in the stretch run of a season. Painter kicked Kelsey Barlow off the team and suspended D.J. Byrd for the Michigan State game for a “violation of team rules.” They’ll miss Barlow’s experience and slashing ability, but sometimes this kind of incident can galvanize a team.
• Lincoln > Land of Lincoln: Any doubts about whether Illinois was still playing for embattled head coach Bruce Weber were answered when Nebraska used a 52-12 run to bury the Illini, 80-57, on Sunday. Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard combined for 11 total points. You just can’t let the worst offensive team in the Big Ten put up 80 on you. Illinois has now lost eight of its last nine games and Weber seems resigned to his likely fate (see video below).
• Shurna Can Score: Congrats to John Shurna, a nice kid and a fantastic (if unorthodox) scorer who is now the all-time leading scorer in Northwestern history. His deep three-pointer midway through the second half against Minnesota gave him 18 points to surpass Billy McKinney (1,900 points).  More importantly to Shurna, the Wildcats picked up a win to stay in the hunt for first-ever NCAA Tournament berth.

The Spartans And Buckeyes Have Company At The Top Of The Standings. (AP/Carlos Osorio)

Power Rankings

1. Michigan State (22-5, 11-3) – Not since Tim Duncan in 1997-98 has a player averaged more than 15 points per game, 10 rebounds a game and three assists per game. But Draymond Green has done just that, and he continued to show his versatility on Sunday at Purdue with a 20-point, 10 rebound and seven-assist performance to lead the Spartans to a road win. He has to be the Big Ten POY if MSU wins the conference.
2. Ohio State (22-5, 10-4) – William Buford has had big games for Ohio State this season, but his struggles late in the regular season may cost Ohio State a Big Ten crown. He shot a combined 5-for-24 in the Buckeyes’ losses to Michigan State and Michigan, and just hasn’t shown the big game leadership that you would expect out of a senior. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a big night for the second place teams in the Big Ten as both Ohio State and Michigan look to keep pace with conference leader Michigan State.  It’s an equally big night for two teams that are desperately trying to make their way into the NCAA tournament as well.  Game On!!!

Illinois at #8 Ohio State, 7 PM, ESPN/ESPN3

Ohio State will be looking for revenge against Illinois at home. (Neal C. Lauron/Columbus Dispatch/MCT)

• The Buckeyes are smarting after recent losses to MSU and Michigan, and now is the time to gather themselves and bounce back.  The Big Ten Conference title is still very much within their grasp if they can get back on the winning track en route to a showdown against the Spartans in East Lansing on March 4.  However, they must figure out a way to use the talents of Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, and William Buford properly.  There is no question that OSU possesses plenty of talent, but mentally the Buckeyes need to find themselves.  They were out-toughed by Michigan State and made too many mistakes against Michigan.  Illinois is a team prone to making mistakes, and the Buckeyes need to take advantage.  It won’t be easy, though, because if Bruce Weber has any inclinations on saving his job, he must finish the season strong and make the NCAA Tournament, and that includes beating Ohio State.  The Illini have already done it once this season back on January 10, and even thought they’ve struggled mightily since then (1-8 in the following nine games), would it be ridiculous to suggest that Illinois is the team with the least pressure to win?  Not much is expected of Brandon Paul and his crew, and they have to have confidence that they can upset a team that they’ve beaten once before just a little more than a month ago.

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

While BracketBusters is always solid, the overall slate over the next few days is full of good, but not great, games. Still, tune in to these games as conference races head down the stretch and the NCAA Tournament field begins to take shape.

#13 St. Mary’s at #24 Murray State – 6:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN (****)

• Since losing to Tennessee State, Murray State has rebounded with two wins over Austin Peay and Southeast Missouri State. On Saturday night the Racers will get their chance to show the nation they are for real. Playing at home in front of a juiced up crowd on national television, there is no excuse for Murray State to come out anything less than fired up. The three point line is this team’s best friend on both ends of the floor and it will be important against St. Mary’s. Murray State shoots 41% from deep (#8 nationally) and defends the arc very well. Against a St. Mary’s team that ranks a putrid #305 against the triple, that’s a huge advantage for the Racers at home. Steve Prohm should do everything in his power to ensure Isaiah Canaan (47.3%) and Donte Poole(39.3%) get quality shots from the arc against the porous Gaels’ defense. Defensively, the Racers must lock down the arc as they usually do. St. Mary’s shoots a lot of threes and while they don’t make a great percentage they do get just a shade under 30% of their total points from the arc.
  

  Isaiah Canaan And Company Could Have A Big Day From Behind The Arc Against St. Mary's Average 3-Point Defense (Getty)

• St. Mary’s has lost two of its last three games after starting the season 22-2. The Gaels are still a likely NCAA Tournament team, but a win here would ensure their place in the field of 68 for sure. In order to win on the road in a tough environment against a good team, St. Mary’s must use its edge on the offensive glass, make threes and get to the foul line. With strong rebounders like Rob Jones and Brad Waldow, St. Mary’s has a clear size edge over Murray State. Only Ivan Aska and Ed Daniel see significant minutes for the Racers inside, two of only three players on the roster who are at least 6’7” tall. While the Gaels have a huge edge inside, they’re going to have to overcome Murray State’s strong perimeter defense. Matthew Dellavedova and Clint Steindl are going to have to hit threes for Randy Bennett’s team to come out on top. Thirdly, St. Mary’s should look to take advantage of a Murray State defense that ranks in the bottom half of Division I in defensive free throw rate. The Gaels get to the line fairly well and make 71.9% of their free throws. It’s so important to control tempo and keep the crowd out of the game and getting to the charity stripe while controlling the boards definitely helps in achieving that goal.
• This should be a very close game but the edge has to go to the home team. St. Mary’s is struggling a bit right now and Murray State seems to have righted the ship since suffering its first loss. One concern for the Racers is their turnovers (14 per game). If Murray State controls the ball, plays well on the perimeter and gets to the free throw line at its usual clip, this will be the Racers’ game to lose.

1. Not only was Indiana‘s 71-66 win over Northwestern a good one for the Hoosiers in terms of the Big Ten race and their NCAA profile, it was an important milestone for Tom Crean. After the first couple years of Crean’s tenure  at Indiana, he had a few 20-loss seasons on his resume, that that obviously was not good enough for the Indiana faithful. But Crean’s squad has turned the corner, and now boasts a 20-win season after their victory over the Wildcats. Not only should Hoosier fans be happy about the culture being changed back to a winning one, Indian also a much-needed win over Northwestern, who they were 1-6 against in their last seven against before last night.
2. The game between Purdue and Illinois was a turning point of sorts for both schools, as each needed a win desperately, and it was the Boilermakers who not only got the victory, but grabbed it on the road. As the Illini continue to reel, Purdue has won two in a row after losing four out of their previous five. With a record of 17-9, 7-6 in the Big Ten, Purdue could very well be dancing in March if they keep up their winning ways. Also, grabbing a win in Champaign against a team that wanted it just as bad may show that Robbie Hummel and Co. may finally be coming together at the right time.
3. It will be a battle tonight between Michigan State and Wisconsin, which has been one of the best basketball rivalries in the conference over the last few years. What has been a battle for the Badgers this season has been making shots. Wisconsin is the second-worst shooting team in the Big Ten this season at 42%, and if they want to try and win a conference championship, that number is going to have to go up. It will start with Jordan Taylor, Ryan Evans, and their teammates making a concerted effort to try and get to the basket and find better shots. If they are able to do that, and the #1 scoring defense in the conference can continue to hold opponents to 50 PPG, Wisconsin will be tough to beat.
4. I know that if you are reading this site, you love college basketball. I’m going to assume if you are like me, you also like free food. Well, Pat Chambers cost his fans free food when he decided to have Penn State pull back on the reins in their most recent win against Nebraska. The Nittany Lions have a promotion going that states any time the team scores over 70 points at home, all the fans in attendance will win free Big Macs from McDonald’s. By Chambers direction, his squad only scored 67 points when they could have accounted for more had they tried. Not to let mouths in Happy Valley go hungry, Chambers stepped up and served 200 free Big Macs to fans who showed up at a local Mickey D’s.
5. After a disappointing effort at home against Michigan State, Ohio State rebounded with a nice 78-68 win over Minnesota Tuesday night. Thad Motta clearly had his team playing much better basketball, and stars like William Buford (24 points) played much better than they did against Michigan State. Motta also used his bench much more liberally than he has all season, getting many players into the game early on against the Gophers. However, fans should not expect that trend to continue, as Ohio State is going to rely on their stars to try and capture a Big Ten crown.

Ohio State fans are used to top-15 recruiting classes coming through Columbus every season.

Last season was no different as Thad Matta brought in a top-10 recruiting class featuring three dynamic players – Jared Sullinger, Lenzelle Smith Jr., and Deshaun Thomas.

Sullinger has not disappointed and continues to lead Thad Matta’s program towards a possible Final Four appearance. Senior guard, William Buford is extremely reliable on the perimeter and Aaron Craft is a defensive menace. But the main x-factor on this squad is Deshaun Thomas.

When Thomas shines on the offensive end, the Ohio State offense is unstoppable. Currently, Thomas averages 14.3 points per game despite playing only 28.7 minutes per game. He can score quickly, but a deeper look into his offensive game indicates that his moves can be one-dimensional. Despite having the essential tools to be an offensive force, Thomas still holds back.  Consistency is an issue, especially during the big games. For instance, he shot 2-of-12 against Michigan State this weekend from the field and finished with a disappointing eight points.

Let’s review specific aspects of his current game and a few changes that could raise his game to the next level:

Deshaun Thomas can score with the best of them.

Predictable Scouting Report

More often than not, Thomas can be found hovering around the baseline during Ohio State’s offensive sets. He shoots a very effective 60% from mid-range, but he relies on the jumper too much. When the initial look at the basket is taken away, Thomas will take a dribble towards the basket, but still pull up for a shot rather than drive all the way.

Against Michigan State, his first four shot attempts of the game came from the corner. Thad Matta needs him to do more than just shoot, because he already has guards who provide that dimension to the offense – Buford and Smith Jr. Both of them shoot a reliable percentage from the field (45% in Buford’s case and 52% of Smith Jr.’s mid-range shots are successful).

Read the rest of this entry »

It was a Big Ten clash of the titans, filled with big storylines and consequence, and it proved to be a telling game. Michigan State positioned itself as a legitimate threat to Ohio State‘s hopes for winning the conference title, which were once perceived to be all but a sure thing before the Spartans’ 58-48 upset win in Columbus. Here are a few things to take away from Saturday evening’s game:

Jared Sullinger and Draymond Green are in a two-horse race for Big Ten Player of the Year. (Terry Gilliam/AP)

1. Implications For the Big Ten Race — At the beginning of the year, Ohio State was deemed the clear-cut favorite to take home the conference hardware and, despite a shaky start to Big Ten play, the Buckeyes had really started to emerge as the favorite. But Michigan State has been far more competitive this year than many expected and is now right in the thick of it. It’s easy to envision this conference race coming down to the wire, when Ohio State travels to East Lansing for Michigan State’s Senior Day on March 4. But for now, with the two clubs tied atop the conference standings (one game ahead of Wisconsin and Michigan), they’ve each got to protect the throne. Things get no easier for the Spartans, who now host Wisconsin before traveling to Purdue and Minnesota. The Buckeyes also have two road games coming up, going to Michigan and at home versus Minnesota. Both scenarios leave plenty of room for the Wolverines and Badgers to creep back into the mix, so things remain as up for grabs as ever. Read the rest of this entry »