NCAA Tournament Game Analysis: Sweet Sixteen Thursday

Posted by Brian Otskey on March 22nd, 2012

RTC Region correspondents Brian Otskey (East) and Andrew Murawa (West) contributed to this preview.

#1 Syracuse vs. #4 Wisconsin – East Region Semifinals (at Boston, MA) – 7:15 PM ET on CBS

Bo Ryan Is Looking For His Second Trip to the Elite Eight at Wisconsin

Perhaps the most fascinating matchup to date in the entire NCAA Tournament will take place in tonight’s first game from Boston. Wisconsin, the most patient and deliberate team in the country, takes on a Syracuse team that has won 33 games due in large part to a lethal transition attack. While Syracuse ranks #202 in tempo, the Orange thrive on the fast break. You hear a lot about Jim Boeheim’s team struggling on the defensive glass and some of that is due to the fact that his guards already start out on the break when a shot goes up, taking them completely out of position to rebound. Without Fab Melo around to man the middle, Syracuse’s rebounding issues could be a major problem against the physical and deliberate Badgers. It’s always easier to slow a game down than to speed it up and that’s what Wisconsin is going to do. Syracuse will be forced to score in the half court against one of the strongest defenses in the entire nation. The big question will be whether Syracuse, already not one of the better half court teams, can get the ball inside and avoid settling for jump shots. At times this season the Orange have been frustrated and forced into shooting contested jumpers. Syracuse needs to utilize strong ball screening action in order to free up shooters. Wisconsin’s players will fight through screens and stick with you so using the pick-and-roll also wouldn’t be a bad idea. As for Wisconsin, the Badgers match up very well on the defensive end. The question for them will be whether they can score enough to win. Syracuse obviously has more offensive weapons but Bo Ryan has Jordan Taylor to take control of the game for his team. Taylor is the only player on Wisconsin capable of creating his own shot and that will be critical against Syracuse’s 2-3 zone. Wisconsin shoots a bunch of three-pointers and it will have to make quite a few in order to knock off the top-seeded Orange. Syracuse’s zone encourages opposing teams to shoot over it but Wisconsin can actually make them, a major difference from Kansas State last week. If Boeheim chooses to extend his zone out on Wisconsin’s shooters, that will free up the Melo-less middle for Jared Berggren to go to work off screen and rolls in addition to opening up driving lanes for Taylor. Expect Jim Boeheim to adjust how his defense attacks Wisconsin as the game goes along, something he certainly has experience with. This will be a clean game between two teams with great defenses and terrific ball protection. Should it come down to free throws, Wisconsin has the edge. Syracuse is the better team and has many more offensive threats but the Tournament is all about matchups. We think the Badgers will make just enough shots to pull off the upset.

The RTC Certified Pick: Wisconsin

#1 Michigan State vs. #4 Louisville – West Regional Semifinal (at Phoenix, AZ) – 7:47 PM ET on TBS

One of the things we college basketball fans tend to really like about this time of year are the surprises. Not just the obvious ones like Butler running to the national title game or Villanova playing the perfect game against Georgetown, but more subtle ones like teams unveiling a new wrinkle to their offense or players making plays that you hadn’t known they were able to make. As for this game, however, don’t expect many surprises; we all more or less know how this is going to go down. We’ve seen Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino enough over the years to know what they want to do, and we’ve seen the 2012 vintages of both of these clubs to know what they are capable of. Michigan State is going to defend like crazy in the halfcourt, pound the glass on both ends of the court and try to knock Louisville around enough so that the Cards will be forced into submission late in the game. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are going to turn up the pressure defensively, try to force turnovers, rely on Gorgui Dieng to block shots in the middle and watch Peyton Siva get penetration and create offense off the bounce. It is likely going to be a low-scoring game that is still in doubt late into the second half and it will come down to which of these teams is capable of making the most plays down the stretch. While Siva’s numbers on the season are not great, he has been a different player since the Big East Tournament started, getting into the lane seemingly at will, creating opportunities for himself and for others and pitching in everywhere on the floor on his way to 13 points, 5.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game over the six-game stretch. He does a lot of damage in the pick-and-roll game, so not only will Spartan guard Keith Appling have to be on his game defensively, but whichever big man gets involved in the screen needs to do a good job of keeping Siva out of the lane. Draymond Green is clearly the big factor for Michigan State, and he too has been on fire of late, averaging 20 points, 12.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists and shooting it at a 64.3% eFG in the NCAA Tournament. Freshman Chane Benahan appears to be the most obvious individual matchup for Green, but it is going to have to be a full team effort for the Cards to slow the All-American down. Louisville will need to pressure the Spartan guards, keeping them from getting into their halfcourt offense easily and, perhaps more importantly, dedicate themselves to keeping Spartans like Green, Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix off the offensive glass. However, given their relative lack of size (only Dieng is taller than 6’8”) and struggles with defensive rebounding, this could be the eventual downfall of the Cards. While they’ll certainly get their share of stops and turnovers, allowing Green and company second opportunities is a recipe for disaster.

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Big Ten Morning Five: 03.21.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on March 21st, 2012

  1. The Illinois gig is probably the most high-profile job opening in college hoops right now, and the name that keep rising to the top of the list is VCU coach Shaka Smart. There have been reports that Illinois athletic director Mike Thomas is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Smart to get him to come to Champaign and, though Smart has pledged his allegiance to VCU in the past, there remain reports that the rising star is still considering the move.
  2. If we asked at the beginning of the season who Ohio State‘s most important player was, the near-unanimous answer would be Jared Sullinger. Same goes for the midway point, probably. But now? It’s safe to say Deshaun Thomas would get a few votes. As the BuckeyeSports.com’s Ari Wasserman writes, Thomas has evolved from an X-factor for the Buckeyes into one of the team’s front men, if not the front man.
  3. Big Ten fans know better than to consider Bo Ryan‘s Wisconsin clubs to be an underdog. They are never flashy and rarely grab headlines but anybody who follows basketball in the Midwest knows that the Badgers are always hanging around. Now, with Wisconsin on the national stage in the Sweet 16, FOXSportsWisconsin.com‘s Jesse Temple examines the idea of a Bo Ryan group overachieving. With the loss of several key players from last year’s team, it looked like Jordan Taylor would have a lot on his shoulders. But once again, who’s surprised the Badgers are here now?
  4. One way to judge a program’s dominance in its home state is with in-state recruiting, and Michigan State has had a good handle on the Mitten State for a while now. Future Spartan Matt Costello was named the state’s Mr. Basketball this week, and fellow Michigan State commit Denzel Valentine finished second. Costello, who averaged 25.1 PPG, 17.8 RPG, 4.0 APG, and 4.0 BPG  this year, will join 2010 winner Keith Appling and 2009 winner Derrick Nix in East Lansing next year. Last year’s winner, Dwaun Anderson, committed to Michigan State, but chose to switch his enrollment to Wagner after working through family issues. The Spartans also landed the Mr. Basketball winners each year from 1999-2002.
  5. Of all things written and said about the style of play in the Big Ten, rarely does the term “poetry” come up. But the fine folks at CBSSports.com have found a way to link the two ideas. (It’s good to know we’re not the only ones a little antsy for this second weekend’s slate of games to get here already.) In just a matter of syllables, Matt Norlander wonders who this year’s UConn is, explores how things changed for Indiana and says hello to Bo Ryan.
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NCAA Tournament Tidbits: 03.20.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 20th, 2012

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

South Region

Midwest Region

  • Fans and media aren’t the only ones caught up in great performances by major talent among the mid-major ranks. It was recently revealed that in 2010, Baylor coach Scott Drew and then-Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl allegedly contacted Ohio‘s D.J. Cooper about transferring, which would constitute NCAA violations if the allegations are true. It will be interesting to see whether the subject is raised during Baylor’s media session this week.
  • Yahoo! Sports’ Pat Forde opines that even if North Carolina guard Kendall Marshall returns to the fold for a potential regional final, the odds are stacked heavily against the Heels.
  • The Tar Heels’ aren’t the only team from the state recovering from some health concerns. N.C. State will face Kansas Friday, and C.J. Williams and C.J. Leslie are recovering from fatigue. The severity isn’t even comparable to North Carolina’s situation, but a few days of rest will be especially helpful to the Wolfpack.
  • Basketball Prospectus’ C.J. Moore breaks down how Kansas topped Purdue on Sunday, from Elijah Johnson‘s fortitude to Bill Self‘s halftime adjustments.
  • There are already two coaching vacancies in the Big Ten, and Ohio coach John Groce could fit the bill at either Nebraska or Illinois after the season. Groce’s Big Ten connections, when combined with his team’s head-turning performance this postseason, make him appealing to the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is a tough job, but with a heavy commitment to hoops, Athletic Director Tom Osborne could find a catch.
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NCAA Tournament Tidbits 03.19.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 19th, 2012

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

East

  • After an atrocious opening game where they nearly became the first #1 seed to a #16 seed, Syracuse rebounded with a solid performance that helped remind some people why they were a #1 seed in the first place.
  • One of the keys to Wisconsin‘s consistent play in the postseason has been there tendency to never be satisfied. The Badgers should not have much difficulty finding motivation on Thursday against what should be a pro-Syracuse crowd in Boston.
  • John Gasser was feeling the effects of a gastrointestinal illness on Saturday, but that did not prevent him giving the Badgers what they needed to beat Vanderbilt despite playing limited minutes.
  • With their win on Sunday night Cincinnati advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and set up one of the more intriguing match-ups with an in-state showdown against Ohio State. The Buckeyes hold a 5-4 series edge, but outside of a game in 2006 the last game between the two schools was in 1962 when they played for the second year in a row in the National Championship Game.
  • Hardcore college basketball fans have known about the importance of Aaron Craft all season, but that point was driven home with his actions on and off the court over the weekend.
  • Of course, glossing over the play of Jared Sullinger in the team’s win over Gonzaga would be a major oversight. When the Buckeyes needed big plays it was their big man who came up with exactly what the team needed.

South

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What I Learned, Sweet Sixteen Edition: Part One

Posted by zhayes9 on March 19th, 2012

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court, on loan from the editorial freelancers association.

The last four days I’ve successfully slipped into a hoops coma, watching every game from Murray State-Colorado State on Thursday afternoon to Cincinnati closing out Florida State to finalize this season’s Sweet 16. In between the thrilling last-second finishes, the shocking upsets and the blowout snooze-fests, stars were born and flaws were exposed. Starting with the East and West regions, here’s one prevailing lesson learned from each remaining team as I somehow try to survive without hoops until Thursday:

Syracuse: The matchup with Wisconsin is less than ideal. All season long, Syracuse has been an absolute menace in transition. Jim Boeheim teaches his guards to seek out steals and, prior to his suspension, Fab Melo’s shot-blocking prowess often acted as the first pass towards a layup on the other end. Without Melo’s services, the front line of Syracuse’s zone isn’t quite as aggressive, while fast break points will come at a minimum against a Bo Ryan-coached team who has finished in the top five in turnover percentage in each of the last four seasons. Forcing fewer turnovers coupled with an opponent who fumbles the ball once in a full moon is a discouraging combination. The Orange will be forced to leave their comfort zone and execute at a slower pace in the halfcourt to advance. Look for a heavy ball-screen attack with Dion Waiters and Scoop Jardine.

Scoop Jardine will need to hit big shots to beat Wisconsin

Wisconsin: They need a plan against a zone defense. Vanderbilt switched to a 2-3 zone with about three minutes to play on Saturday and Bo Ryan’s crew didn’t seem to have a clue, passing the ball around the perimeter before chucking a deep, contested three late in the shot clock. Wisconsin certainly has the gunners at every position to drain their fair share of shots from downtown, but if Wisconsin wants to avoid long rebounds and a plethora of transition points for the Orange the other way, they’ll need to expand their repertoire against the zone. Ryan Evans or Josh Gasser don’t exactly have a lot of experience operating in the middle of that type of defense. Bo Ryan will need to cook up an effective plan in the next three days.

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ATB: Sweet Sixteen Set – #1 Seeds Roll, Cinderellas Emerge, and It’s Good to be From Ohio

Posted by EJacoby on March 19th, 2012

Tonight’s Lede. After one of the craziest nights in recent Big Dance history on Friday, perhaps we all needed a bit of a break from the chaos this weekend. Fortunately, that didn’t exactly happen. Most of the higher seeds advanced in the round of 32, but the Midwest Region led the way with some crazy results. Almost every season, we see a double-digit seed reach the Sweet Sixteen; this year, we have three, and it easily could have been five. Of the 16 teams remaining, four come from the Big East, four are of the Big Ten, and four represent the state of Ohio, including both of the guilty parties from the Crosstown Shootout Brawl back in December. It’s the first time ever that one single state sends four teams to the Sweet Sixteen. Let’s go over the great moments from the weekend…

Your Watercooler Moment. #13 Ohio University is This Year’s Cinderella Story

D.J. Cooper Hasn't Allowed #13 Ohio to Lose (AP Photo/B. Rucker)

What would the NCAA Tournament be without a mid-major, double-digit seed in the Sweet Sixteen? This year it’s Ohio, the #13 seed of the Midwest Region that had a fairly favorable draw in terms of matchups but still had to defeat two power conference teams on the way. A victory over #12 seed South Florida on Sunday sent the Bobcats to the second weekend of the Big Dance, pretty amazing considering they finished third in the MAC conference this season. But Ohio is no joke, as D.J. Cooper continues to prove himself as one of the best lead guards in the entire tourney. Cooper outplayed USF’s Anthony Collins in the round of 32 and tallied 19 points, six rebounds, and seven assists with several big shots late in the game to help his team advance. The other recognizable name from this squad is Nick Kellogg, the sophomore guard who is the son of CBS analyst and former collegiate star Clark Kellogg. Clark’s son is a terrific shooter at 41.8% from three and 89.2% from the foul line, giving the Bobcats a nice one-two punch from the perimeter. Interestingly enough, Ohio now draws #1 North Carolina in the Regional Semifinal in what most would expect to be a blowout, but the Tar Heels just lost their indispensible point guard to a wrist injury, which will make things interesting next weekend. Could Ohio’s perimeter attack lead to a truly incredible Cinderella story with a win over UNC? Stay tuned.

Also Worth Chatting About. Kendall Marshall Suffers Broken Wrist for #1 Seed North Carolina

The single biggest storyline from the past weekend was not anything that happened in the box score or even in between the lines on the court. But when North Carolina’s star point guard and the nation’s leader in assists, Kendall Marshall, got fouled and pushed on a layup and landed on his right wrist in the out-of-bounds baseline, the entire dynamic of this NCAA Tournament changed. Marshall suffered a fractured wrist on this play with 10:55 remaining in the second half of Carolina’s game against #8 seed Creighton. Marshall continued to play in this game for a few minutes and wasn’t immediately in so much pain that he had to leave. It’s also an injury to his non-shooting hand, so it could have been worse. In addition, the sophomore is set for surgery on Monday which will leave him in a position to play shortly thereafter if he is able to tolerate the pain. Unfortunately, it’s a huge long shot to think that Marshall will be back and effective going forward. The injury he suffered usually requires three-plus weeks of a cast and rest, and even bracing the hand and tolerating pain to play will make for a huge liability on the floor. Already a weak defender, Marshall would be even less effective on that end and he would surely be forced to his right hand on offense by opposing teams. There’s just as strong of a chance that he’d be a detriment to UNC by being on the court than he would be a benefit, depending on the true impact of the injury. As things stand, Carolina needs to start preparing for a Championship run without its point guard, leaving that position to be filled by either unused backup Stilman White (4.2 minutes per game) or by a player like P.J. Hairston or Harrison Barnes in some sort of point-forward role. One of the most irreplaceable players in the country, Marshall’s injury leaves a giant question mark surrounding the Tar Heels’ title hopes.

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Rushed Reaction: #6 Cincinnati 62, #3 Florida State 56

Posted by David Changas on March 19th, 2012

Three Key Takeaways.

  1. A Game of Intensity.  No one will accuse either of these teams of not playing hard. Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin and Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton are known for teams that bring effort to every aspect of the game, and while they may not always play pretty, they both leave everything on the floor. Both teams shot under 40% for the game, and this is a testament to the kind defense they play. While both teams turned the ball over far too many times, this game gave us essentially what we expected:  a tough, grind-it-out battle with intensity befitting a third round NCAA Tournament game.
  2. A See-saw Battle.  The game saw 11 ties and 19 lead changes. Cincinnati took the largest lead of the second half at that point with just over a minute to play when it went up 54-50.  The Bearcats were able to maintain a two-possession advantage the rest of the way, but this was as evenly-played a game as you will see.  Until the Bearcats took control late, it didn’t look like either team would do so.  Thanks to some shaky play down the stretch by Florida State point guard Luke Loucks, including two careless turnovers, the Bearcats move on.
  3. Florida State Disappointment.  The Seminoles, who won the ACC Tournament just a week ago, have to be disappointed that they could not advance to a regional in which they would have had as good a chance as any team to advance to the Final Four.  They finish the season at 24-10, but after last year’s Sweet Sixteen run, this Seminole squad was more equipped to make a deep run and would have no doubt given Ohio State all it could handle.

Star of the Game.  Sean Kilpatrick.  The sophomore guard is the Bearcats’ leading scorer, and on this night, he finished with 18 points on 5-9 shooting, including 4-6 from three-point range.

Quotable. “Had we taken care of the ball better, we’d at least have given ourselves a chance.  That’s probably what did us in.” – Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton

Sights and Sounds.  This was the most intense atmosphere of the weekend.  The crowd was nowhere near capacity, but it was very loud, and it almost matched the intensity of the play on the floor.

Wildcard.  Both games played in Nashville today ended up with the same final score, 62-56.  In this game, both teams went 19-50 from the field.

What’s Next?  The Bearcats advance to Boston to play in-state rival Ohio State in one East Regional semifinal.  The winner of that game will take on the winner of Syracuse-Wisconsin.  There’s no reason to think Cincinnati can’t advance out of that region, although taking down the Buckeyes will be a tall order.

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NCAA Tournament Tidbits 03.18.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 18th, 2012

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

West Region

South Region

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Tournament Thoughts From Third Round B1G Action

Posted by Deepak Jayanti on March 18th, 2012

Did somebody mention a potential letdown? Michigan‘s loss to Ohio on Friday night may have sent some signals across the tournament that the rest of the B1G teams may be vulnerable, but Saturday turned out to be great for the historical conference. Three Big Ten teams flexed their muscle to prove to the nation that they might not always be flashy in their winning ways, but they are definitely the toughest, both mentally and physically. Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio State faced adversity during their games, but they showed great composure to pull out with a huge wins as they advance to the Sweet 16. The following are a few thoughts from Saturday’s action.

Jared Sullinger and Ohio State earned their win against Gonzaga on Saturday.

Ohio State over Gonzaga (73-66)

Mark Few had the frontline to challenge Ohio State. Robert Sacre and Elias Harris have the physical tools to hang with Jared Sullinger and they certainly did that during the first half of the game. Gonzaga owned the glass during the first 20 minutes which resulted in a 52.9% offensive rebounding rate. Matta’s crew did a great job of hitting the boards in the second half which led to a bruising win. Sullinger scored on two key possessions during the final minutes from the post, and that’s exactly what Matta expects from his star player in the clutch. Aaron Craft and William Buford were committed to feeding the post.  When Ohio State is patient with their shots from beyond the arc and go through Sullinger consistently, they are a handful for rest of the teams in the tournament. The guards need to be persistent including Deshaun Thomas.  If Sullinger doesn’t get a good position the first time, the ball needs to come back out and Craft needs to find him again until he gets a good position in the post. Sullinger ended up with 18 points for the game and he earned every one of them. Aaron Craft was able to control the tempo during the second half by locking down Gonzaga’s Kevin Pangos. Craft assisted or scored on 44 of the 73 points during the game but as usual, his defense was a more important key to the victory. Pangos was stifled on the perimeter as he missed six out of the eight three-point attempts. Craft’s defense limited him to 3-13 from the field and just ten points. Thad Matta‘s Buckeyes took a few jabs throughout the game and punched back to make the Sweet 16.

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NCAA Tournament Game Analysis: Third Round – Saturday

Posted by Brian Otskey on March 17th, 2012

RTC Region correspondents Brian Otskey (East), Kevin Doyle (South), and Andrew Murawa (West) contributed to this preview.

#1 Syracuse vs. #8 Kansas State – East Region Third Round (at Pittsburgh, PA) – 12:15 PM ET on CBS

Jim Boeheim's Team Appears Vulnerable: Will They Find Steady Footing?

You can make a case that Syracuse shouldn’t even be here after the officiating disaster at the end of its first game. However, the Orange survived and now are being questioned by many fans and commentators. A word of caution: Thursday’s game against UNC-Asheville may have been what Syracuse needed to get over the jitters of playing without Fab Melo. While that’s not likely to be a popular opinion, it may be enough to move Syracuse to at least the Sweet Sixteen. The Orange are not going to have an easy time with Kansas State’s physical defense but the big question mark is if the Wildcats can score enough to keep pace. Kansas State is actually somewhat vulnerable on the defensive glass and Syracuse did a nice job of offensive rebounding against Asheville. Obviously the Wildcats have a significant edge on their end of the floor when it comes to offensive rebounding but we actually like the matchups for Syracuse. The Orange have a lot more talent, are deeper and can pressure a Kansas State team that averages 14 turnovers per game. Syracuse won’t get out on the break often but all it needs is a couple stretches of turnovers and fast break points in order to create a cushion. Experience also matters and the Orange feature two seniors in Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph while Kansas State has freshman Angel Rodriguez running its offense. Syracuse isn’t nearly as good without Melo but we think the Orange are good enough to advance past the Wildcats in this game.

The RTC Certified Pick: Syracuse.

#2 Ohio State vs. #7 Gonzaga – East Region Third Round (at Pittsburgh, PA) – 2:45 pm ET on CBS

There are a ton of fascinating matchups in this game. From Gonzaga’s front court guarding Jared Sullinger to the nation’s most efficient defensive team going up against a Gonzaga team that can certainly put up points. Aaron Craft is widely considered to be one of, if not the best perimeter defender in the nation. Thad Matta will count on his sophomore point guard to shut down Gonzaga freshman Kevin Pangos, an absolute sniper from the arc. Gonzaga shoots the ball very well as a team but Pangos is the guy who really provides the spark for this team. The Bulldogs demolished West Virginia on Thursday but facing Ohio State is going to be a totally different animal. Gonzaga does have the front court depth needed to double Sullinger and make it difficult for the big fella to score inside. The key to beating Ohio State is to make them take jumpers while frustrating Sullinger and Gonzaga can do that with its strong front line. However, foul trouble could become a major concern for the Zags if they’re not careful. A matchup on the wing between Elias Harris and Deshaun Thomas are also intriguing, as is Gonzaga’s ability to get to the foul line against a defense that is physical but doesn’t foul a lot. If the Bulldogs can’t get to the stripe that means Sullinger isn’t in foul trouble and they’re going to be forced to make shots against a really tough Buckeye defense. This is going to be a really fun game to watch between two very talented teams. In fact, it may be the best Saturday matchup on a day in which there will be many.

The RTC Certified Pick: Ohio State.

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