If you know anything about us here at RTC, you know that we love numbers.  We love breaking down game stats and looking for secrets in the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that will help us better understand why Team X is playing so poorly or why Team Y is much better than their ranking.  We also love statistical oddities – little factoids of generally meaningless but still interesting data that we can bring up at RTC office parties and cocktail functions so that we’ll seem edumacated and wicked smart about the ins and outs of college basketball.  Or at least so that we can impress Dickie V when we next run into him at a spring training Rays game.  Yeah, that.

So here are a few of the statistical items that we find interesting as we approach conference season – perhaps you will also.  (all stats furnished by basketballstate.com)

• These guys had better avoid foul trouble. UAB’s Robert Vaden, Texas’ AJ Abrams and Virginia Tech’s AD Vassallo each average over 36 minutes per game for their teams.
• Get these men the ball! Among players scoring 15+ ppg, St. Joseph’s Ahmad Nivins (74.2%), Kentucky’s Patrick Patterson (71.5%), Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin (67.9%) and Michigan St.’s Raymar Morgan (65.3%) are burning up the nets.
• Double-Double Trouble. Of the 19 players averaging double-figure rebounds, all of them also average double-figure points.  But only two of them are 20/10 guys – Blake Griffin (23/14) and Notre Dame’s Luke Harongody (23/12).  Patrick Patterson is just a whisker shy of 20/10 (19.6/9.5).
• Betcha Didn’t Know That…
  • Stephen Curry leads the nation in scoring (30.0), but Tyler Hansbrough puts up the most points per 40 minutes (34.4)
  • North Dakota State’s Ben Woodside, he of the 60-pt explosion two weeks ago, is #2 in the nation in assists (7.6 per game).  Or that Davidson’s Mr. Curry is 12th nationally in dime-dropping.
  • Kentucky guard Jodie Meeks is averaging 24.2 ppg so far this season.  The last Wildcat to average that many points per game was Dan Issel in 1969-70 (33.9).
  • VMI’s brother tandem Travis and Chavis Holmes are 1-2 nationally in pilfering the ball (4.0 and 3.7 spg).
• Tempo Free Stats.
  • UNC is the most efficient offensive team in the nation (1.19 points per possession), but did you know that Purdue is the most efficient defensive team around (0.79 ppp)?
  • The tops of the ACC and Big East have extremely efficient teams on both ends of the court – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, UConn, Pittsburgh and Georgetown all have large differentials (approaching or above 0.3 ppp) resulting in an extra point every three or four possessions down the court.
  • The slowest paced “good” team is Wisconsin, with 61.4 possessions per game.  UNC, unsurprisingly, is averaging 79.3 possessions per contest.
  • Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and West Virginia own the boards, each team getting at or nearly 60% of the available caroms.  It’s difficult to find a “good” team that can’t rebound the ball, but Creighton is the best candidate for this award, only getting its Blue Jay hands on 48.2% of rebounds.
  • Notre Dame only turns the ball over one of every eight possessions (13%), but Kentucky gives it away nearly a quarter of the time (24%) and has still managed to go 10-3 thus far.  Incidentally, the Irish also rarely foul opponents (#1 in the nation with only 11.8 per game).  Tennessee, with all of its reaching and grabbing pressure defense, garners 21.3 fouls per game.
  • Georgetown, Connecticut, Xavier and Oklahoma live at the foul line, each getting a quarter or more of its points from the charity stripe.  Illinois, on the other hand, only gets about 14% of its points from the line.
  • The best offensively efficient performance by one team in a legit game this season so far was UNC  vs. Notre Dame, where the Heels averaged an astonishing 1.53 ppp in that demolition.

Got any others?  Feel free to pass them along in the comments!

Ryan Pravato of College Fast Break is the RTC correspondent for the Summit League.

North Dakota St. (2-0) 5-3

The big story for the Bison so far is their 5’11 point guard Ben Woodside.

The performance of note (I’m sure you all have heard about it by now) came against the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. North Dakota State lost by 1 in a triple OT, but Woodside scored the most points by a DI player since Arizona State’s Eddie House put up 61 in 2000. Having seen Woodside play live before, the outburst did not surprise me. If you haven’t been lucky enough to watch Woodside play before, think of him as a mix between a Chris Quinn streaky shooter type and as a sneaky drive to the basket and flip it up Tony Parker type player.

Ben is one of the few Summit League players that has a fighting chance at a NBA future.

Anyways, Ben scored 60 points, 30 of them were from the charity stripe. And even more impressive was the fact Woodside only made 2 three pointers.

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John Stevens is a featured columnist for RTC.

Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to Ben Woodside.

Most likely you’ve never heard of this gentleman (or maybe even the Bison of North Dakota State University) unless you live in North Dakota or follow Summit Conference basketball. And I’ll be honest with you — until about an hour ago, neither had I. But when the overnight interns here at the RTC Eastern Seaboard Complex noticed and alerted me that on Friday night our boy dropped 60 points on Stephen F. Austin in a game in Drake University’s Hy-Vee Classic – yeah, that’s right, I went Hy-Vee on you! — well, I simply had to investigate this.

Taking Him to the Woodside

Sticking with honesty, I’ll tell you that I obviously didn’t see this game, and while I was getting down to the bottom of this, I was thinking of possible headlines for an article, like “Woodside Takes SFA Behind the Woodshed,” or “Lumberjacks Can’t Chop Down Woodside,” or something like that. But those prospects were ruined by the fact that SFA actually defeated Woodside’s NDSU team 112-111 in three overtimes. The game was tied 78-78 at the half, and in one of the more interesting-looking linescores you’ll see, NDSU scored 11 points in each of the three overtimes. SFA also scored 11 in the first two…but 12 in the 3^rd OT.

Whenever I hear that a player has put up a huge individual number like that, I always wonder who got embarrassed in their attempts to play defense on this guy. In this case, the answer is…half of the time, nobody. Literally. Woodside, a 5’11’’ 185-pound senior, took a page from the Tyler Hansbrough success manual and got half of his points by converting numerous opportunities at the free throw line, shooting an impressive 30 for 35. You’d also think that a 5’11’’ guy would need some serious 3’s to hang 60 big ones on somebody. Wrong again. Woodside was 14 for 32 from the field, only shooting 2 of 6 from three-point range, so he’s obviously got some creativity in his game. More evidence to this fact is that Woodside has evidently been a consistently prolific scorer for NDSU in all four of his on-court seasons there (he redshirted his first year), averaging 17.5 as a freshman, 16.4 as a sophomore, and 20.7 as a junior. Before this year began he had a streak of 85 consecutive starts, which certainly looks like it’s still intact. It’s also worth noting that he’s averaged over 5 assists each year, and tacked on 8 assists (and 8 rebounds, nearly a trip-dub) in the game earlier tonight against SFA, making him responsible for at least 76 of the Bison’s 111 points.

I’m sure he probably would have rather had the victory for his team, but any time a guy elevates his PPG from 20.7 to 26.2 in a near mid-season game, props are warranted. So kudos to you, Ben. We’ll be checking in on you periodically for the rest of the year.

Ryan Pravato of College Fast Break is the RTC correspondent for the Summit League.

Opening Thoughts

The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are in first place. Enjoy all of the perks that go with it, Thunderbird fans.  But remember, Duke football got out to a cute little start this season and that didn’t end so well, did it?

This unfamiliar madness all started on Tuesday (Dec. 2) as the Southern Utah Thunderbirds kicked off Summit League conference play at home with an upset of epic proportion over Oakland. Alright, relax self, so maybe Oakland isn’t the UNC of the Summit League, but the 82-66 victory was somewhat of a surprise considering the Thunderbirds came into the game on a 4 game losing streak and, frankly, Southern Utah head coach Roger Reid wasn’t exactly feeling ecstatic about the match up with Oakland prior to the game,

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Ryan Pravato of CollegeFastBreak is the RTC correspondent for the Summit League.

Summit League Digest  (NOV.21)

The first 10 days or so of the college basketball season has been refreshingly cosmic. My penchant has always been my college hoops fandom. It’s an impulse that will not die.

It’s like Rasheed Wallace snapping “Ball Don’t Lie” after an errant free throw.

It’s, you know, automatic.

Summit League Headlines

• Two days before Oakland’s opener at Cleveland St., star guard/forward Derick Nelson injured his foot. He’ll be out until late Decemberish.  A huge blow to not only Oakland, but also to the dozens of participants who selected Derick in their fantasy mid major only college basketball draft.
• IUPUI senior guard Gary Patterson (12.9 ppg last season) has missed the team’s first 3 games because of a broken left hand he suffered in late October.
• 0-9. The Summit League’s record versus other DI teams before Oakland’s overtime win @ Oregon on November 17th. And it wasn’t as if Summit League teams were playing perennial powerhouses like UCLA or UNC every game. Some of these losses were against Kennesaw State (yes, they’re DI), San Jose State, Northern Illinois, Cleveland State and Northeastern. UMKC even lost to first year DI team North Dakota. So technically that’s a 0-10 DI record prior to the Oakland win.

The Breakdown

Oral Roberts (1-1) So far in 2 games of action only Robert Jarvis is averaging double figures in points. Jarvis is also averaging 5.5 rebounds as well. Don’t expect that to continue.

• Key upcoming games: Nov. 30 @ Mizzou, Conference opener Dec. 4 @ North Dakota State

UMKC (1-2) 5 days after losing to DI newbie North Dakota, the Kangaroos beat Wichita State on the road by 3. Sophomore guard Reggie Hamilton is averaging 15.3 ppg.

• Key upcoming game: Nov. 30 @ Florida

IUPUI (1-2) 3 point loss at Indiana on the 18th. 6’5 freshman Alex Young is leading the squad in scoring with 15.7 so far. Good young nucleus needs veteran Gary Patterson back to seriously contend.

• Key upcoming game: Nov. 29 @ Western Michigan

IPFW (0-2) The Mastodons have played Xavier and Michigan State thus far and actually had a second half lead against the Spartans before succumbing to their freakish athleticism. Sophomore guard Ben Botts is the only player averaging double figures.

• Key upcoming game: Conference opener Dec. 4 @ Southern Utah ( first of 7 straight road games)

North Dakota State (1-0) The Bison doubled up NAIA school Mayville State 128-64 on the 18th–7 players scored in double figures. Star guard Ben Woodside scored 28 in just 16 minutes.

• Key upcoming game: Nov. 29 @ Minnesota

Oakland (1-1) Upset Oregon on the road (17th) in overtime with the help of a phenomenal 32 point performance by junior point guard Johnathon Jones. Even more impressive was the fact that Jones only made one three pointer.

• Key upcoming games: Nov. 23 @ Iowa, Nov. 25th @ Kansas State.

Western Illinois (1-2) Senior guard David Dubois is averaging 20.3 ppg. He was named to the 100 Club Classic All-Tournament Team.

• Key upcoming game: Nov. 28 @ Coastal Carolina.

South Dakota State (1-2) Sophomore guard Clint Sargent is averaging 17.3 ppg and 8.3 rebs/gm. He’s 10 for 20 from downtown thus far.

• Key upcoming game: Nov. 29 @ Central Florida.

Centenary (1-2) 6’1 senior guard Nick Stallings scored 31 in a Nov. 20th win against Troy. Guards Chase Adams and Gary Redus II are playing well early on too.

• Key upcoming game: Conference opener Nov. 4 @ South Dakota State

Southern Utah (1-1) The Thunderbirds gave the Florida Gators a decent game on the 20th in a 14 point loss. Junior guard Davis Baker had 23 points and 8 rebounds. 6’10 senior John Clifford struggled mightily (fouled out, scored just 5). John wishes Southern Utah could play the likes of DII Mesa State more often (scored 24).

• Key upcoming game: Nov. 29 @ Boise State.

The Summit League is what it is. The guard dominated league will pull off a few solid upsets in the coming weeks against those big school beasts, but along the way there will be plenty of blowouts, some camel spider cringe worthy.

I digress.

Ryan Pravato of collegefastbreak.com is the RTC correspondent for the Summit League. 

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. North Dakota State Bison   (19-10, 13-5)
2. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles  (20-10, 13-5)
3. Oakland Golden Grizzlies  (18-13, 12-6)
4. IPFW Mastodons  (16-13, 11-7)
5. IUPUI Jaguars  (16-15, 9-9)
6. UMKC Kangaroos  (14-17, 8-10)
7. Centenary College Gentlemen  (11-19, 8-10)
8. South Dakota State Jackrabbits  (13-18, 7-11)
9. Western Illinois Fighting Leathernecks  (9-20, 6-12)
10. Southern Utah Thunderbirds  (6-23, 3-15)

WYN2K. 

• 22 out of 31. Conference RPI ranking for the Summit League in each of the last two seasons.
• Oregon, Marquette, Oklahoma St., Kansas, Texas Tech, Utah.  Casualties at the hands of Summit league teams throughout the past 2 seasons. Does beating Seton Hall count? What about Louisiana Tech, twice?  Not bad, not bad. The Summit is not quite knocking on the door of the Missouri Valley in stature as of yet, but at least they’re in the neighborhood. Some will never be in the continent.
• Guardplay.  Guards rule this conference in more than one way. They not only light up the scoreboard from downtown, but they also grab more than their share of rebounds. Lots. Last season 6’5 Derick Nelson led the Oakland Grizzlies with 7.4, 6’6 Brett Winkelman led the North Dakota State Bison with 8.3, and 6’2 George Hill led IUPUI with 6.8.  The big men you will find, and there are some actually, are your rudimentary mid-level giants who usually possess the muscle tone of Kevin Durant and the post-up game of Muggsy Bogues. Besides that, Summit league big men are studs 

Predicted Champion. North Dakota State (#14 NCAA).  Coincidentally this happens to be the very first season in which the Bison are postseason-eligible. But the Bison seem to be the consensus these days. And for good reason. The three-headed monster returning for the Bison all redshirted their freshman year so that they would be able to have an opportunity like this. The littlest of the fifth year senior trio, Ben Woodside, scored over 20 ppg last season while also dishing out over 5 feeds.  At 5’10, Woodside is a very creative attacker and gauging from the few times I have seen him play in person, he will hoist from anywhere, anytime.  The giant of the group is Brett Winkelman, all 6’6 of him. While you already know he’s a terror on the glass, he’s also quite the assassin on the perimeter, hitting 43.8% of his threes last year. Winkleman is an efficient player and one not to shy away from the dirty work. He’d be in any team’s rotation.  6’4 Mike Nelson is the third head of this Bison monster. Often overlooked because of the other two, Nelson just goes about his business, you know, the usual 46.1% from downtown, 13.8 ppg, and 32 mpg. Not a shabby third option.  All numbers aside, this Bison squad is downright hungry. They’re ready for the limelight, ready for the Summit league tourney.

Others considered.  Oral Roberts, the Summit League representative in the tourney the previous three years, will always be in the discussion for the title.  Oral Roberts consistently plays defense year in and year out the way it should be played: stay between your man and the basket.  Alright, that may not be their textbook philosophy on defense, but a casual fan watching this team would probably not argue against it actually being THE PHILOSOPHY. Offensively speaking, combo guard Robert Jarvis and forward Marcus Lewis are the only returning players that averaged north of 5 ppg last season. Jarvis is a star though. He’s without a doubt the most streaky player in the conference (16.1 ppg in 29 mpg…off the bench). I’m not real sure Oral Roberts can survive the shoot first mentality of Jarvis as their point guard, but it sure looks like that will be their only chance to make it 4 straight tourney appearances.  Oakland finished third in the conference in 2008. They have one heck of an opening stretch of road games to begin the year. If they can come out of it with an upset or three, it might just be all the confidence this team needs to make a run. Scoring the ball is not a concern for head coach Greg Kampe. Guards Johnathon Jones, Erik Kangas and Derick Nelson all averaged over 14 ppg last season. Nelson has a tendency to try to do too much, but when he plays within himself, he can hurt you in a variety of ways, whether it’s on the offensive glass, in transition, or with an occasional trey. Defense and rebounding seem to be the problem for this team, especially up front. They can usually get away with lackluster defensive lapses against the weaker teams, but losing four out of five to last year’s strongholds IUPUI and Oral Roberts should be an indication of what Oakland must drastically improve on to legitimately be considered a threat . A pair of highly touted freshman (as opposed to lowly touted), 6’9 Jay Thames and 7’0 Ilija Milutinovic, hope to give this lacking front line a boost. Ilija, says coach Kampe, might be just what the doctor ordered: “There is a lot of hype with him and we have never had this much hype about a recruit before. He turned down six figures to play professionally in Serbia because he wants to go to the NBA.”  Kampe later referred to Ilija as “very comparable” to Darko Milicic.  I’m still not sure what to make of that.

RPI Boosters/Games to Watch. You won’t see many of the Summit League teams on tv, but if you live in a midwestern state, chances are you’ll be able to take in a game at a very reasonable price.

• For the state of Michigan at least, Oakland vs. Michigan State (12.27.08 @ The Palace) will be a fun affair.  Last season Oakland lost @ MSU by only 4.
• NDSU @ Minnesota (11.29.08).  Intriguing early season test for the Bison against an up-and-coming Minnesota team.
• Oral Roberts @ North Carolina (12.13.08). This game will be on ESPN2.
• NDSU @ Oakland (1.2.09) & Oakland @ NDSU (1.29.09).
• NDSU @ Oral Roberts (2.28.09).  Last game of the regular season for both of these schools, a #1 seed could be on the line.
• And of course the Summit League Tournament, where mascots take themselves seriously (see below).  This is a one bid league fellas.

Did You Know.

• Oral Roberts freshman Beloved Rogers led all Maryland high schoolers in scoring last season with 27.8 ppg.
• UMKC senior Dane Brumagin, had games of 40, 35, 29, and 27 points last season while improving his 3pt% by almost 10% from the previous season.  Unfortunately for Dane there’s not much else besides a possible conference scoring title to look forward to this year.  UMKC players 6’8 or taller equal the number of playoff series Tracy McGrady has won. 
• Valparaiso is the last school to win a non-PiG NCAA tournament game as a member of this conference (known as the Mid-Continent Conference until 2007). Valpo won 2 games back in the 1998 NCAA tourney.
• Waste Management Court at Western Hall is home to the Western Illinois basketball team. I know, I know, ‘Coach K Court’ and ‘Jim Boeheim Court’ are so much more original.

65 Team Era.  The MCC/Summit has had a fair amount of success throughout this era, going 8-24 (.250), but most of those wins were performed by teams no longer affiliated with the conference ten or twenty years ago (Valpo, UW-Green Bay, Northern Iowa, Cleveland St.).  In the past ten years, only Oakland has won a game, and that was the dreaded #16 v. #16 play-in game.  In the ten first-round games of the last decade, the MCC/Summit representative has lost by an average of 21.4 points.  The only close game was #14 Southern Utah’s three-point loss to #3 Boston College in 2001. 

Final Thoughts.  In the end I feel like there are five to six quality teams in this conference, but only three of them have any realistic shot at knocking off somebody come NCAA Tourney time. Oral Roberts has the defensive discipline and experience factor going for them. Oakland can put points up in a hurry and is the deepest team in the conference. North Dakota State has the firepower and sense of urgency. They have not had the chance to taste March Madness. Those talented seniors get one crack at it, and they’re ready to battle.  Heck, give which ever team wins the tourney a shot at Duke. We all saw the trouble perimeter savvy Belmont gave them.  Bring ’em on!

11.09.07

Story of the Night. 93 Games. 186 teams. Thank God college hoops is back, baby. We’re a little late, but this is why we care. We got to watch pieces of six games tonight, and while the games looked like Nov. 9, meaning sloppy, it was soooo refreshing to see and hear the sneakers squeaking on the hardwood again.

Things We Saw. Kansas is so loaded we can’t understand how they lose to anyone. Darnell Jackson (21/4/4 stls) off the bench, Sherron Collins (22/6 asts/4 stls), and so much more. UL-Monroe isn’t that bad either, but they were really never in the game (Kansas 107, UL-Monroe 78). In Florida, the Gators are (as expected) extremely young but talented – their freshmen scored 46 of their 75 pts and Nick Calathes looked great, leading the team with 21 pts. They were never threatened with an L by North Dakota St., but they could never really put them away either. That will likely come with experience (Florida 75, North Dakota St. 65). Staying in the SEC, Tennessee took a while to get going against Temple, and they didn’t shoot well from 3 (27%), but they still won comfortably. We still have trouble distinguishing between the 47 Smiths they have on the team (all of them are about 6’5 and wear headbands), but they combined for 38/9/6, while Lofton was otherwise limited (10 pts) (Tennessee 80, Temple 63). One question – will Temple ever be relevant again? The best game of the night that was televised was actually the Ohio-NMSU game. New Mexico St. played without stud freshman Herb Pope, but it was evened out because Ohio’s star forward Leon Williams spent most of the night on the bench in foul trouble anyway. The rest of the Ohio starters picked up for Williams, though (64/25/11), despite NMSU clearly having the more athletic team. Martin Iti (7’0, 240) has an NBA body, but why isn’t he more productive (8/9) (Ohio 80, New Mexico St. 72)?

Score of the Night. Stanford 111, the Tommy Amakers 56. None of the Stanford starters played more than 17 mins, and keep in mind they were w/o Brook Lopez in this game as well. The halftime score was 63-28. Good grief, man! Way to inspire confidence in your first game at Harvard, TA.

Upset Alert. UNC-Greensboro 83, Georgia Tech 74. Who said this yesterday – “upset alert if Ga Tech doesn’t come ready to play…” :-) It appears that mid-major all-american Kyle Hines absolutely shredded the Jackets’ front line (25/9/2 blks on 10-12 shooting). You never know what you’re going to get with Ga Tech, but UNCG is a team to watch as a potential at-large out of the SoCon next spring if they get a couple more of these. Belmont 86, Cincinnati 75. This really isn’t an upset, but Cincy was a 9-pt favorite at home. Wait… who said this yesterday also – “upset alert again – UC was horrid last year. Have they improved?” Now that we’re 2-0 this season on upset alerts, we’re quitting. Great BCS win for Belmont, who we perhaps foolishly did not pick to win the A-Sun again this year (gulp… we didn’t pick Gardner-Webb either). Belmont had 19 layups, 12 threes and 10 FTs, which amounted to 84 of their 86 points – now that’s efficiency. Wow. Other upsets: Tulane 77, Auburn 62 – maybe not the result, but the margin.

Line of the Night. There is no question about this one. Michael Beasley (Kansas St.) (34/24/4 assts/4 blks). 24 rebounds sets a new Big 12 conference record. Just sick numbers for a first game. Kansas St. 94, Sacramento St. 63.

Freshmen. Aside from Beasley at K-State, Kevin Love at UCLA also had an impressive debut (22/13) in a Bruin whomping (UCLA 69, Portland St. 48). The Duke trio of freshmen Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Taylor King combined for 51/14 in a complete and utter destruction of NC Central (Duke 121, NC Central 56). The Devils even pulled out some zone defense, they say.

In Memoriam. Wake Forest honored Skip Prosser by hanging a banner in their arena recognizing his contributions to the school and athletic program. The Deacons played hard and honored his legacy by winning easily (Wake Forest 85, Fairfield 60).

Nov. Bracketbuster. George Mason already helped their at-large profile with tonight’s win over Vermont, one of the better teams in the America East this year. GMU’s Will Thomas (yes, he’s still around) blew up for 16/17, overcoming the Patriots’ abysmal 1-17 from the three point line (George Mason 60, Vermont 53).

Joey Dorsey Award. We like him, but tonight’s award goes to Chris Lofton (Tennessee), for shooting 1-8 (0-5 from three) from the field and only scoring 10 pts. With a stroke like that, we expect nearly all of them to go in.

On Tap Today (all times EST). Another pretty big day with 63 games, although not much on tv because of college football. Here are some of the games to keep an eye for along the bottom line while you watch pigskin.

• Yale (NL) v. Sacred Heart 1pm – presumptive favorites from the Ivy and NEC play.
  
• Texas Tech (-19.5) v. UC Riverside (ESPN FC) 2pm – we have no idea why this is FC worthy.
• Minnesota (NL) v. Army 3pm – Tubby’s debut will probably go a little better than Billy G’s last game.
• USC (NL) v. Mercer 4pm – we cannot wait to see the OJ highlights from this one.
• Bucknell (NL) v. Albany 7pm – a game that could affect seedings (#14 or #15) next March.
• Oregon (-26) v. Pepperdine (ESPN FC) 7:30pm – how will the Ducks look w/o Aaron Brooks?
• Vanderbilt (-12) v. Austin Peay 8pm – beating the dead horse here, but this is the kind of game we wish FC would have instead.
• Marquette (NL) v. IUPUI (ESPN FC) 8:30pm – we’re not completely sold on MU – this could be an interesting game.
• Pacific v. W. Michigan (-4.5) 9:30pm – if Pacific is back this year, they need to win this game.
  

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Oakland (21-8) (15-3)
2. Oral Roberts (16-11) (12-6)
3. North Dakota St. (16-12) (12-6)
4. IUPUI (17-11) (12-6)
5. Missouri-Kansas City (14-17) (9-9)
6. Southern Utah (13-16) (9-9)
7. Centenary (12-17) (8-10)
8. IPFW (8-20) (6-12)
9. Western Illinois (8-21) (4-14)
10. South Dakota St. (5-24) (3-15)

WYN2K. Someone in PR at the Mid-Continent Conference decided that the league needed to be rebranded to effectively portray the goals and ideals of its member institutions. Hence, the Summit, which immediately reminds us of the orange and white monstrosity court at the University of Tennessee, but which league commish Tom Douple stated, represents “the top in athletics and academics.” Good luck with that, Tom. In the spirit of change, the league’s most well-known school (at least for hoops), Valparaiso, left for the Horizon League, while it added three new members – Indiana/Purdue-Fort Wayne (IPFW – shouldn’t it be IUPUFW?), North Dakota St., and South Dakota St. Of the three, only IPFW will be eligible for the league championship this season, as the Dakota schools will have to wait until 2008-09.

Predicted Champion. Oakland (#14 seed NCAA). We see four teams with championship credentials in this league, but Oakland stands out to us as the team most ready to take over the top spot from Oral Roberts. The small school from suburban Detroit (not California) returns three starters from a squad that finished second in both the regular season and tournament, and played ORU very tough in its last two meetings (Oakland won by 1 pt at home, but lost in the MCC championship game by 4 pts). Despite losing all-MCC player Vova Severovas, the Golden Grizzlies will have a superb backcourt led by Eric Kangas, an exceptional shooter who made 109 threes while shooting 43% from deep last year. Oakland is also expecting a big contribution from Rutgers transfer Dan Waterstradt, a 6’10 forward who possesses size and ability that most big men at this level do not have. We also like Oakland in close games – last year it’s ft% (76.9%) was third in the nation.

Others Considered. We’re not sure who will be the second-best team in the Summit, so we copped out and predicted a three-way tie among the next tier of teams – Oral Roberts, North Dakota St., and IUPUI. IUPUI is the media/coaches pick to win the league, with three of its top four scorers returning as well as guard George Hill, the presumptive best player in the league who had a broken foot that kept him out of action last season. Our main concern with IUPUI is whether Hill will be able to seamlessly transition into the backcourt after a productive first season from guards Austin Montgomery and Gary Patterson, the top two vote-getters for newcomer of the year. If things are rosy, IUPUI could make a run at the title. Another team we considered was North Dakota St., an independent last season who ran off twenty wins (20-8) including a win at Marquette (64-60) and near-misses vs. Texas Tech (81-85) and Kansas St. (81-83). NDSU isn’t eligible for the league title, but it returns four starters and seven of its top eight scorers. Wouldn’t it be interesting if they ended up with the league’s regular season crown? We’d be remiss if we didn’t also consider two-time defending league champion Oral Roberts as well. Scott Sutton returns a lot of players, but we can’t overlook the two he lost – Caleb Green and Ken Tutt, who combined for six all-conference selections, three POY awards (all Green), and scored over 4500 pts (!!!) for the program. If ORU’s depth, and there is plenty of that, can overcome the loss of those two stalwarts, we might just see the Golden Eagles in March again this year.

Games to Watch. The Summit will play a true round-robin of 18 games each, so there will be ample opportunity for each team to distinguish itself against the other good teams.

• IUPUI @ Oral Roberts (01.17.08) & Oral Roberts @ IUPUI (02.16.08)
• Oakland @ IUPUI (01.24.08) & IUPUI @ Oakland (02.21.08)
• Oral Roberts @ Oakland (01.12.08) & Oakland @ Oral Roberts (02.07.08)
• The Summit Championship Game (03.11.08) ESPN

RPI Booster Games. The Summit loves its Big 12 and Big 10 teams. Last year the league went 2-22 (.083) against BCS teams, with Oral Roberts pulling one of the biggest early-season shockers of last year (ORU 78, #3 Kansas 71) as well as defeating Seton Hall 76-74. There are some good opportunities this year, and several of them will be televised:

• North Dakota St. @ Florida (11.09.07)
• IUPUI @ Marquette (11.10.07) ESPN FC
• UMKC @ Kansas (11.11.07) ESPN FC
• Oral Roberts @ Texas A&M (11.13.07) ESPNU
• Oakland @ Michigan St. (11.24.07)
• Texas Tech @ Centenary (12.01.07) ESPN FC
• North Dakota St. @ Minnesota (12.03.07)
• Wichita St. @ UMKC (12.15.07)
• Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma St. (12.20.07) ESPN2
• Oregon @ Oakland (12.22.07) ESPNU

Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids. Still none, although we wish they’d let NDSU into the Summit League Tournament just to see what might happen if they won.

Neat-o Stat. By most objective measures, Western Illinois was one of the worst teams in America last year. Its record was 7-23 and its offensive and defensive efficiencies were among the bottom fifty. However, it was also one of the unluckiest teams in America, losing two more games than would be expected by its overall statistical profile and losing eight games by four points or less, the most such instances in the nation.

64/65-Team Era. The history of the league shows that the MCC has had a tendency for one team to dominate for a while before ceding its power to another. From 1987-1990, Southwest Missouri St. won four consecutive NCAA bids. After a few years of several teams winning the league, Valparaiso started its run of seven NCAA bids in nine years in 1996. The last two years Oral Roberts has been winning the bids, with a great shot at a third straight this season. Over the 23-year era, the league has a solid low-major record of 8-23 (.258) in the NCAA Tournament, including two trips to the Sweet 16 (1986 – #14 Cleveland St.; 1998 – #13 Valparaiso). Unfortunately, in the nine years since that Bryce Drew-led run by Valpo, the league has lost its first round game (avg: #15.0 seed) by an average of 21.7 pts (excluding the 2005 PiG, where Oakland, with a 13-19 overall record, defeated Alabama A&M 79-69). Speaking of young Mr. Drew…

Note: video cannot be embedded, so double-click on the YouTube logo above to get it to play.

Final Thought. Notwithstanding the name change, the Summit appears to be a league in transition. Oral Roberts has already shown a commitment toward building a serious program by keeping Scott Sutton on board with a seven-year contract extension. Oakland and IUPUI have also shown signs of long-term progress, and a newcomer like North Dakota St. is well positioned to be competitive in the league immediately. Last year the league earned its highest computer rankings (mid-teens) of the last decade and even with the loss of Valpo, the conference should have enough talent in its top half to keep it among the best of the low majors.