From 68 to 64 — eight squared and four cubed. The perfectly balanced bracket will take a major hit later today, when 16 hopefuls are removed from it and the Circle of March, in a 12-hour window. Today we say hello to the best four days in all of sports, while also saying goodbye to four teams that had wonderful seasons with memories to last a lifetime. Only one of the 64 squads below can survive the Circle — which one will it be?

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.19-20.13)

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And so it begins. Today at exactly 12:15 PM in Auburn Hills, Michigan, the 2013 NCAA Tournament as we all know it will officially tip off, setting in motion a chain of events that will undoubtedly bust most people’s brackets by mid-afternoon. Nevertheless, the anticipation for the best two weekdays in all of sports is over. Let’s get things started with an analysis of all of today’s games, beginning with the afternoon slate of eight contests.

#3 Michigan State vs. #14 Valparaiso – Midwest Region Second Round (at Auburn Hills, MI) – 12:15 PM ET on CBS

Adreian Payne And Sparty Look To Turn Away Valparaiso’s Upset Bid Thursday

The Second Round of the 2013 NCAA Tournament tips off in Auburn Hills on Thursday, where Michigan State clashes with former March magician Bryce Drew and his Valparaiso Crusaders. Having been underseeded slightly by the committee, the Horizon League Champs now rest as a dangerous #14 seed. They are led by Ryan Broekhoff, a 6’7” senior and two-time Horizon League POY. The Aussie import does the bulk of his damage from three-point range, having made 82 threes this season. He will undoubtedly be the focus of the Spartan defense, a unit that has proven stingy as ever this season. Tom Izzo’s team ranks 8^th nationally in defensive efficiency, in large part because of their defense of the three-point stripe, where opponents have shot just 30.8%. The physical, tough Spartan identity is not limited to the defensive end however, as Michigan State has played efficient (albeit slow) offense all season, despite a relative dearth of play-makers (apologies to the oft-dynamic backcourt of Keith Appling and Gary Harris). We can analyze this matchup all we want, but the final calculation is very simple. Despite Valparaiso being a tricky #14 seed, this is Michigan State, Tom Izzo and March. The home court advantage Sparty will enjoy in Auburn Hills is almost overkill – I like Michigan State to take care of business here.

The RTC Certified Pick: Michigan State

#6 Butler vs. #11 Bucknell — East Region Second Round (at Lexington, KY) — 12:40 pm ET on truTV.

One of Thursday’s better games pits two teams that have combined to win 54 games against one another. The key to Butler’s resurgence this season has been the addition of Rotnei Clarke. The 6’0” transfer from Arkansas has opened up Butler’s offense and made it easier for the other Bulldogs to operate. In this game, Brad Stevens and company face a particularly difficult matchup for an 11-seed. The Bucknell Bison have one of the best centers in the nation (Mike Muscala) and are a senior laden team that maximizes possessions and won’t be afraid to bang with Butler. In addition Muscala, a 6’11” senior and perhaps the best rebounder in the country, Dave Paulsen’s team defends with the best of them and has a pair of very capable three point shooters in Bryson Johnson and Cameron Ayers. The key for Bucknell will be to contain Clarke and keep him from dominating the game. For Butler, getting on the glass and limiting Bucknell’s top scorers will be critical. Bucknell has very little scoring depth with four players averaging about 53 of its 67 PPG. It’s probably not too smart picking against Stevens but we like the match-up for Bucknell in this one.

The RTC Certified Pick: Bucknell

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The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

Midwest Region

• Louisville and Kentucky are bitter in-state rivals, but the Cardinals do not take a special joy in playing on their rival’s home court in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament.
• Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy had a few interesting things to say in his press conference the day before his team is set to take on Missouri. He said this year has been the most difficult first year he has had at any program due to the high expectations for the team. He also added that before this season, he always thought the Mountain West was overrated.
• Missouri has been a bit of an enigma all season, but the Tigers are still a very talented team. When it comes to scouting Frank Haith‘s squad, it all starts with taking a look at point guard Phil Pressey.
• Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford was hoping for his team to be placed in the San Jose pod and he got his wish on Selection Sunday. The 1,648 miles between Stillwater and San Jose was the farthest first round option for the Cowboys, but lengthy travel is nothing new to this season’s squad.
• Oregon is going to have one of the nation’s top recruits in the stands for its game against Oklahoma State in San Jose on Thursday. Aaron Gordon, a 6’8″ forward from San Jose, will be at the game – UO is in the final four for his services – along with Kentucky, Arizona, and Washington. Interesting fact about Gordon is that he was an AAU teammate of Ducks freshman point guard Dominic Artis.
• Saint Louis has drawn great acclaim all season for its ability to play as a team. The team concept has been led by senior point guard Kwamain Mitchell, who wants to keep playing his final season in a Saint Louis uniform.
• Memphis coach Josh Pastner was not too pleased when a reporter suggested Wednesday that the Tigers were not battle-tested. In response, Pastner exclaimed, “To say we are not battle-tested is ridiculous. Do you recognize that every single time we step on the floor that we get everyone’s best shot. We’ve won 26 straight Conference USA games.”
• Michigan State coach Tom Izzo is mostly excited to be playing in Auburn Hills on Thursday, but he does acknowledge that there are potential negatives that go with playing that close to home. Izzo knows that he must manage the possible distractions and keep his team focused.
• Valparaiso forward Kevin Van Wijk was ready to give up basketball after one season as a Crusader due to a surgically-repaired back that just was not getting any better. This all changed due to a relationship he forged with Frank Eksten of the Sports Medicine Institute in Crown Point, Indiana. Van Wijk’s back has improved dramatically and he is now Valparaiso’s second leading-scorer.
• Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is looking for seniors Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly, and Mason Plumlee to step up their leadership in the NCAA Tournament.

West Region

• Gonzaga has not made it to an Elite Eight since 1999, but the Bulldogs have not suffered shocking first-round upsets like other high-profile programs. Does this mean Gonzaga’s label as an underachiever in the NCAA Tournament is unfair?
• Wichita State forward Carl Hall has a well-known reputation of being the Shocker with the dreadlocks. Well, that reputation is no longer factual as Hall cut his hair Monday for the first time in five years.
• Wisconsin forward Ryan Evans has been a lot more comfortable at the foul line ever since he adopted the jump-shooting technique. This change has allowed Evans to have more confidence at the line, which has resulted in more willingness to get to the rim and draw fouls.
• Ole Miss has not appeared in the NCAA Tournament since 2002, but the Rebels are not entering this season’s event with concerns about their lack of experience.
• Kansas State was struggling to adjust to the new offense of first-year coach Bruce Weber in the early season, but the Wildcats have since become very well accustomed to the system and their offense has thrived.
• Arizona guard Jordin Mayes had struggled with confidence issues with his shot for must much of his junior season, but he has broken out of his slump in March and looks primed to make an impact for the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament.
• Belmont guard Ian Clark led the nation this season with a 46.3 percent mark from deep and this has definitely caught the attention of Arizona, the Bruins’ Round of 64 opponent.
• New Mexico coach Steve Alford agreed to a new 10-year deal Wednesday that will keep the coach in charge of the Lobos basketball team through the 2022-23 season.
• Notre Dame coach Mike Brey has had his fair share of struggles in the NCAA Tournament. For this season’s event, he is aiming to maintain the attitude of keeping his team loose in hopes that it will allow the Irish to put the past missteps behind them.
• Is this season Ohio State coach Thad Matta‘s best coaching job in Columbus? Consider this: Matta took a team with no big man presence and no defined second scoring option, and took it to a Big Ten Tournament title.

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Marquette rode a dominant season at home, where the Golden Eagles finished a perfect 16-0, to a 14-4 Big East record which tied Louisville and Georgetown atop the Big East.  Buzz Williams’ team notched big wins over NCAA Tournament teams Wisconsin, Georgetown, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh twice.  Marquette had a double bye in the Big East tournament, but dropped its quarterfinal match-up against Notre Dame.

Marquette Raced to Another Great Season Under Buzz Williams

Region: East
Seed: No. 3
Record: 23-8 (14-4 Big East)
Matchup: vs. Davidson in Lexington

Key Player: When he can stay on the floor, Davante Gardner is a total mismatch for most of the teams that Marquette will run into this March.  The 6’8″, 290-pound bruiser averages over 11 points in just over 21 minutes per game with remarkable efficiency. He shoots at a 58% clip from the floor, and is among the best free throw shooters in the conference at 84% from the line. When Marquette finds a mismatch down low, he can exploit it and find himself camped there all night.

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Unless you’re a major procrastinator, you probably already have a pretty strong idea of who your Final Four choices will be this year. Maybe you’ve already completed your bracket and put it to bed. Or maybe you’re one of those people who likes to have all available and possible information at your fingertips before making your final decisions. For those of you that fall into the latter camp, this post is for you. We’ve aggregated all of the RTC NCAA Tournament prep materials in one place for your ease of use. We can’t guarantee that you’ll go 63-0 on your selections as a result, but we can assure you that the answers are in there if you look hard enough. Enjoy, and Happy Madness, everyone.

Play RTC Bracket Nonsense. This year’s version of RTC Bracket Nonsense is the best we’ve ever had, because it includes great prizes from Retro College Cuts as well as authentic autographed memorabilia celebrating Atlanta as the site of this year’s Final Four. You can win prizes after each of the three weekends, so don’t forget to sign up by Noon ET Thursday.

Lots of Great Prizes Available This Year – PLAY TO WIN!

The Official RTC Bracket.

• South and East Regions
• West and Midwest Regions

The RTC Podblasts. Our team of NCAA Tournament correspondents joined the RTC Podcast guys this week to break down each of the four regions separately. You can find them all in this single post — give a listen.

Bracket Prep Region Analyses. We dare you to find more thorough breakdowns of each of the four regions. From discussions of potential Cinderellas for both the Sweet Sixteen and the Final Four to the most enticing match-ups for both purists and the mainstream media, it’s all there.

• East Region
• South Region
• Midwest Region
• West Region

Vegas Odds (Along With KenPom & HSAC). Which teams do the bookmakers in Las Vegas favor heading into this year’s NCAA Tournament? How does that compare with some of the better mathematical models out there? Keep these in mind when finalizing your brackets this year.

Bracket Prep: All 31 Automatic Qualifiers. One of the most difficult things to do is to discern which of the mid-majors are poised to pull of an opening game upset. Bracket Prep digs into each of the auto-qualifiers with its Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom, discussing the kinds of match-ups that are both good and bad for each team. Give it a look before finalizing those choices.

Bracket-Busting the Other 26. The power conference schools get plenty of attention. What about the schools from the Other 26 D-I leagues? In these posts, we break down the ceilings for each of those O26 teams, from #1 seed Gonzaga all the way down to the #16s destined for a very short stay.

• South and West Regions
• East and Midwest Regions

NCAA Tournament Tidbits. A ridiculous number of links about all of the teams gearing up for their opening games this week.

• Tuesday Edition
• Wednesday Edition

A Non-Sports Womans’ Guide to March Madness. When in doubt, pick colors and uniforms. The RTC Babe breaks down her picks for the Final Four.

Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of RTC. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g. 

The Wolverines were riding high into the NCAA Tournament last year after winning a share of the Big Ten title but were shot out of the gym by John Groce’s Ohio squad in the Second Round. A year later, Michigan will start its postseason with some doubts against its first opponent, South Dakota State. Under the assumption that Trey Burke can give Nate Wolters fits on the defensive end and John Beilein’s team plays with a chip on its shoulder so as to not repeat last year’s debacle, it is likely that they will get past the Jackrabbits in Auburn Hills. But if they do get past them, their likely opponent in the next round will be the VCU Rams. Shaka Smart’s “havoc” defense strives on full-court pressure defense as the Rams force turnovers on 27.1% of their opponents’ possessions. Not since Nolan Richardson’s “40 minutes of hell” in the mid-90s have we seen a defense this intense in the full court, but the Wolverines can break it and turn the pressure into an advantage to get to the Sweet Sixteen. The following are a few key thoughts about this potential game.

Mitch McGary will need to be patient against the VCU press.

• Mitch McGary and Jordan Morgan will need to be patient at midcourt: The full-court press can be broken as long as there are multiple ball-handlers on the court. Most likely the guard initially inbounding the ball will be double-teamed so the Wolverines will need to move the ball laterally. If Burke and Nik Stauskas are trapped on the sidelines, McGary or Morgan will need to make themselves available at mid-court to receive the pass. They also need to make sure to avoid any moving screens amidst the chaos. Without a big man in the middle, it’ll be tough for Burke or Stauskas to break through the havoc. Morgan is experienced enough to be patient but McGary’s patience will be tested in his first weekend of NCAA Tournament experience.

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In last night’s opening round games, North Carolina A&T and St. Mary’s both advanced to the Round of 64, and two more games tonight will round out the field. Once again, tonight’s games will get under way at 6:40 PM tonight on truTV — here’s our analysis of tonight’s two games.

#16 LIU Brooklyn vs. #16 James Madison — East Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 6:40 PM ET on truTV.

LIU Brooklyn Will Depend on Its Transition Attack

Night two of the First Four begins with a game that will feature two vastly different style of basketball. LIU Brooklyn loves to play fast but unlike most up-tempo teams, the Blackbirds do not force many turnovers to fuel a transition attack. LIU shoots the ball very well, led by senior forward Jamal Olasewere and junior point guard Jason Brickman (a 46% three-point shooter). Olasewere operates primarily inside the arc but also isn’t afraid to step out and take an occasional triple. Brickman is a terrific assist man, averaging over eight dimes per game. He’s ranked #16 in assist rate nationally but is vulnerable to coughing it up as well, averaging four turnovers a night. Still, his 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic. James Madison has to focus on these players defensively along with C.J. Garner, who averages 16 PPG for a team that scores nearly 80 PPG on average. LIU’s offensive statistics are impressive but Jack Perri’s team doesn’t take defense, ahem, very seriously. The problem for James Madison is that it doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well to begin with, so it will have to slow the game down (easier than speeding it up) and limit LIU’s possessions. JMU is led by strong senior forward Rayshawn Goins who, at 6’6” and 266 lbs, is certainly a force to be reckoned with. Goins against Olasewere could be the key match-up in this game. Neither team has a lot of size but Olasewere is giving up about 40 pounds to the burly Duke. In the end, we feel LIU has enough offensive firepower despite its defensive issues to advance and play Indiana on Friday.

The RTC Certified Pick: LIU Brooklyn.

#13 Boise State vs. #13 La Salle – West Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) – 9:10 PM ET on TruTV

Jeff Elorriaga Will Be Bombing Away Tonight

These two underdogs will have the attention of the nation all to themselves as they fight to be included in the bulk of the bracket. And this game is definitely one to keep an eye on, as it may be one of the more entertaining contests you’ll see on this first weekend of play. Both teams are guard-dominated, both teams shoot the three regularly and with great proficiency, and both teams will get out in transition when they have the opportunities. For La Salle, the backcourt trio of Ramon Galloway, Tyreek Duren and Tyrone Garland combine to average 44.9 points and 9.1 assists between them and shoot a collective 37.4% from deep. Meanwhile, Boise’s trio of Anthony Drmic, Derrick Marks and Jeff Elorriaga combine to average 43.9 points, 8.4 assists and a collective 41.8% clip from behind the arc. Those guys go a long way toward cancelling each other out, in which case the game may come down to the frontcourts, where the Broncos have the advantage. While the Explorers are largely ineffective in controlling the glass, Boise is the third-best team in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Forwards Ryan Watkins and Kenny Buckner are particularly good in that area but it is a full-team effort, as even the guards chip in to clean the glass. In a game where both teams have perimeter players to put the ball in the hoop, the dirty work up front may turn out to be the difference.

The RTC Certified Pick: Boise State

We’re approximately 24 hours ahead of the opening tip from the field of 64, and the RTC Podcast crew has spent some time putting together a short preview podblast for each of the four NCAA regions. We invited four of our correspondents to the party to help us work through the brackets — Brian Otskey (@botskey) for the East Region, Kevin Doyle (@kldoyle11) for the South Region, Bennet Hayes (@hoopstraveler) for the Midwest Region, and Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) for the West Region.  We may not nail every one of our picks, but we had a blast recording these and hope you enjoy listening to our coverage on these four ‘blasts.

East Region

South Region

Midwest Region

West Region

We’ll bring everyone back next week to look forward to the regionals. Happy March Madness!

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

Midwest Region

• Even though his team will be playing close to home this weekend in Lexington, Louisville coach Rick Pitino stressed that there is no homecourt advantage in the NCAA Tournament.
• Colorado State big man Colton Iverson will be a load for Missouri to handle in the post. Iverson enters the NCAA Tournament averaging 14.7 points and 9.8 points per game.
• The stunning upset loss to 15-seed Norfolk State in the last season’s NCAA Tournament is not on the minds of Missouri as it prepares for this season’s event.
• Though he is just a freshman, star Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart provides the Cowboys with much-needed toughness and leadership.
• Michael Berk of KGW NewsChannel 8 in Portland believes Oregon should use the national outrage over its 12-seed to its advantage as it prepares for its Round of 64 match-up with Oklahoma State.
• It seems as if the nation fell in love with Saint Louis during its victorious Atlantic 10 Tournament performance, so now the Billikens are working hard to ignore distractions and remain focused as they get ready for their first game against New Mexico State.
• New Mexico State guard Terrel de Rouen‘s competitiveness and tenacity has allowed him to recover from a torn ACL suffered last season to become a key player for the Aggies in his sophomore season.
• While in preparation for its Round of 64 game against Valparaiso on Monday, Michigan State coach Tom Izzo dismissed assistant coach Dane Fife from the building as Fife’s wife was preparing to give birth to the couple’s second child. Fife’s wife, Blair, gave birth to a daughter Tuesday morning at Sparrow Hospital in Lansing.
• The more Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin watches tape of Creighton standout Doug McDermott, the more impressed he is with the All-American junior. Cronin said of McDermott, “He can single-handedly beat you. He can get on a roll and give you 30 or 40 any night.”
• Mindful of last season’s loss to 15-seed Lehigh, Duke understands that it cannot afford to overlook 15-seed Albany in this season’s NCAA Tournament.

West Region

• Gonzaga forward Elias Harris has had an outstanding four-year career in Spokane. The senior is hoping that he will finish his Gonzaga career playing in the Final Four.
• The reality at times of Pittsburgh’s past weak performances in the NCAA Tournament often puts coach Jamie Dixon on the defensive. He loathes the suggestion that his teams have underachieved in the Big Dance, “We’ve won a lot of games in the Tournament. Only five teams have been to more Sweet Sixteens than we have. They don’t give you byes into the Sweet Sixteen.”
• Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall had modest goals for this season – to win 20 games and possibly sneak into a postseason tournament. Luckily for Marshall and the Shockers, his team was able to surpass both these goals and earn a bid to the NCAAs.
• Wisconsin guard Ben Brust commented on the high possibility that Ole Miss guard Marshall Henderson will talk trash to him and his teammates during Friday’s game by saying, “I don’t even know how to talk trash. I think I’ve learned throughout my years, in one ear and out the other and just let my play do the talking.”
• Kansas State guard Shane Southwell can give the Wildcats a scoring punch from the perimeter, but he has struggled with consistency as of late. The junior guard is looking to find a rhythm to give his team a boost in the NCAA Tournament.
• Guard play is going to be a major factor in Wednesday night’s First Four match-up between La Salle and Boise State.
• There has been some national talk about Arizona potentially being an upset victim in the Round of 64, but the Wildcats are trying to avoid that talk as they gear up to face Belmont on Thursday.
• Harvard freshman guard Siyani Chambers has made an immediate impact for the Crimson. The point guard was named Ivy League Freshman of the Year and was placed on the league’s all-Ivy first team.
• After being considered a bubble team for much of the latter part of the regular season, Iowa State guard Korie Lucious and the rest of the Cyclones are “happy to still be playing this time of year.”
• Bob Baptist of the Columbus Dispatch writes that Ohio State‘s Tournament fate hinges on defensive dedication. The Buckeyes have defensive standouts Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott on their roster, but they are going to need their other players to step up.

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The Madness is just around the corner and through nearly 48 hours post-reveal of the bracket, there’s been no shortage of number-crunching, analysis, and commentary about what is going to happen over the next three weeks. Betting markets are often a good benchmark indicator in terms of the overall public perception of the quality of teams, so every year we always like to make it a point to review what Las Vegas thinks about each region — each region’s odds have been normalized to 100% to show a truer snapshot of each team’s odds. This year, we’ve also added another couple of columns showing what the advance metrics of KenPom and HSAC have to say — there are some notable differences among some of these teams, so that’s certainly worth tracking as well.  (note: all Vegas odds were derived on Tuesday afternoon from The Greek.)

We’ll provide each region’s snapshot view below, followed by some light commentary, starting with the East Region…

No surprise that Tom Crean’s top-seeded Hoosiers are the favorite here, with #2 Miami (FL) and #4 Syracuse to follow. #3 Marquette is not a Vegas favorite, but they’re clearly valued more highly by the advanced metrics of HSAC and KenPom. By the same token, #6 Butler, with its recent Final Four history in tow, is given a much better chance among the oddsmakers than the metrics guys. With a separation between the top seven teams and the rest of the field, the East Region feels a bit more open in the middle, but don’t forget that #1 Indiana is the biggest favorite in both Vegas and KenPom of any of the four regions.

The South Region has six teams breaking the five percent threshold in Vegas, but all three views show really only four teams in this race. The advanced metrics folks really like #3 Florida, which makes sense as they’ve been very high in efficiency statistics all season. Vegas agrees, but not quite as much, giving the Gators a slightly-better-than-quarter chance of winning this region, while #1 Kansas, #2 Georgetown and #4 Michigan are all relatively good picks as well. Public perception of #8 North Carolina is quite a bit higher than what the metrics suggest, but that’s really the only other team where such a disparity exists.

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