Looking Ahead: Breaking Down Michigan’s Chances Against VCU
Posted by Deepak Jayanti on March 20th, 2013Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of RTC. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.
The Wolverines were riding high into the NCAA Tournament last year after winning a share of the Big Ten title but were shot out of the gym by John Groce’s Ohio squad in the Second Round. A year later, Michigan will start its postseason with some doubts against its first opponent, South Dakota State. Under the assumption that Trey Burke can give Nate Wolters fits on the defensive end and John Beilein’s team plays with a chip on its shoulder so as to not repeat last year’s debacle, it is likely that they will get past the Jackrabbits in Auburn Hills. But if they do get past them, their likely opponent in the next round will be the VCU Rams. Shaka Smart’s “havoc” defense strives on full-court pressure defense as the Rams force turnovers on 27.1% of their opponents’ possessions. Not since Nolan Richardson’s “40 minutes of hell” in the mid-90s have we seen a defense this intense in the full court, but the Wolverines can break it and turn the pressure into an advantage to get to the Sweet Sixteen. The following are a few key thoughts about this potential game.
Mitch McGary will need to be patient against the VCU press.
- Mitch McGary and Jordan Morgan will need to be patient at midcourt: The full-court press can be broken as long as there are multiple ball-handlers on the court. Most likely the guard initially inbounding the ball will be double-teamed so the Wolverines will need to move the ball laterally. If Burke and Nik Stauskas are trapped on the sidelines, McGary or Morgan will need to make themselves available at mid-court to receive the pass. They also need to make sure to avoid any moving screens amidst the chaos. Without a big man in the middle, it’ll be tough for Burke or Stauskas to break through the havoc. Morgan is experienced enough to be patient but McGary’s patience will be tested in his first weekend of NCAA Tournament experience.
- The Wolverines could be off the races in this one, which plays to their strengths: Remember Glenn Robinson III flying high for alley-oops in transition during the conference season? When the Wolverines are on the run, they are extremely effective and comfortable on the court. Stauskas and Burke can handle the ball very well but it is a sight when Tim Hardaway Jr. and Robinson can fill the lanes in transition. Although they may turn the ball over a few times during the early minutes of the game, if they can adjust to the pressure quickly, they could get a number of easy looks at the basket. The Rams are ranked in the middle of the pack of the Atlantic 10 in terms of field goal defense with a 52.8% effective FG% — because the press is a defensive gamble, and if solved, it leads to easy layups and dunks. The press will also open up opportunities for Morgan or McGary to hit the offensive glass because it is tougher for the defense to get back quickly to recover missed shots. Smart’s team was hammered on the offensive glass in conference play, as indicated by the 38.9% offensive rebounding percentage of their opponents.
- Burke is the best point guard in the nation and he will need to be vocal on the court: Yes, it is stating the obvious here, but when you have the best point guard in America, you can beat a full-court press if he is shows great leadership. Top-tier point guards see the plays before they even develop and Burke has the talent to break the press but he will need to encourage his teammates to talk to each other. The first few minutes of the game will be brutal but any adjustments that Beilein chalks out will need to be implemented by Burke on the court. Expect Spike Albrecht and Caris Lavert to see more minutes because both can handle the ball effectively and have played some key minutes over the past few weeks. Beilein has good backcourt depth on his team and it could pay off against the Rams because he wasn’t afraid to put them into the fire during key games to expose them to numerous high-pressure situations.
