Here are few thoughts on Friday’s NCAA Tournament action in Nashville, and a look ahead to Sunday’s action.

1) The first thing that stood out in watching the eight teams in the NCAA Tournament pod in Nashville was the level of parity that was on display, and which is prevalent throughout college basketball.  In the first half of the day’s first game, the East Region’s #11 seed, Texas, took futility to a new level, hitting 4 of 25 shots on its way to a 31-17 halftime deficit against #6 seed Cincinnati. After falling behind by 19 early in the second half, the Longhorns eventually tied the game, which wasn’t decided until the final minutes. In the nightcap, South Florida, the #12 seed in the Midwest Region, made Texas look efficient by going 3 for 27 and scoring 15 points in the first half.  Somehow they trailed Temple by only four, and the Bulls came out of the locker room on fire and shot 60% for the second half on their way to a 58-44 win over #5 seed Temple. That was the largest spread of any of the final scores here.  Each of the day’s games was up for grabs going into the final minutes.

FSU May Be The ACC Champs, But They Had Their Hands Full

Beyond the obvious – that #12 and #13 seeds won here on Friday, and that two #15 seeds won elsewhere on the same day – it is apparent that the disparity in talent between the mid-majors and the BCS schools continues to narrow.  In watching teams in a pod in which there were no 1-16 or 2-15 matchups, it was clear that parity abounds.  St. Bonaventure, the East Region’s #14 seed and the lowest-seeded team here, played ACC Tournament Champion Florida State to the wire and easily could have won the game. The Bonnies were the fourth-best team in what many consider the best mid-major league – Atlantic 10 – and they were able to control most of their battle with arguably the ACC’s best squad.  And while it would have been an upset, no one here would have been shocked if it had happened.  St. Bonaventure had good players, including the sensational Andrew Nicholson, and the overall difference in talent levels between the two squads was not as vast as it may have been in the past.

Transfers are also an important part of this equation. Case in point is Ohio forward Walter Offutt, who left after two years at Ohio State in which he rarely saw the floor. Offutt, a top-100 player coming out of high school, is one of many former high-major players we have seen over the years make a difference at the mid-major level.  He is flourishing in Coach John Groce’s system and is the team’s second leading scorer. While he couldn’t get into the rotation in two years in Columbus, Offutt has flourished in relative obscurity in Athens. He is the type of player that allows a team like Ohio to compete when it faces better competition in March.

Upsets have long been a part of March Madness, but as we see more of them, we should be less surprised. The George Masons, Butlers, and VCUs of the world have shown us that there is plenty of talent outside the BCS leagues, and the parity on display in Nashville on Friday typified that.

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Three Key Takeaways.

1. Survive and Advance.  Florida State did not want to become the 15th team  – and only the fourth since 2000 – to lose as a #3 seed in the round of 64.  The Seminoles used an impressive second-half defensive effort – holding St. Bonaventure to 11-31 from the floor – and were able to hold off the upset-minded Bonnies.  FSU allowed St. Bonaventure to shoot 46% in the first half, which led to a six-point deficit at the break.  Florida State is known for its ferocious halfcourt defense, and that is what carried it through to the third round.  The Seminoles were also able to neutralize St. Bonaventure star Andrew Nicholson, who got off to a hot start with 10 points in the first eight minutes of the game, but finished with only 20.
2. Seminoles Win without Much from Snaer.   The Seminoles’ leading scorer, Michael Snaer was held scoreless on the day for the first time in his career. Snaer, a second-team All-ACC performer, got into early foul trouble and played only five minutes in the first half.  He was a non-factor in the second and took only seven shots, going 0-5 from three. Florida State Coach Leonard Hamilton has to be pleased that his team was able to overcome the odds considering such a poor performance from its best player to move on.
3. A Perplexing Finish.  After Florida State missed two of three free throws late, St. Bonaventure had a chance to tie with a late three.  The Bonnies had the ball in the frontcourt with 20 seconds remaining but had no timeouts left.  Florida State guarded the perimeter ferociously, leaving Da’Quan Cook with a two-point attempt with nine seconds left.  After Cook rebounded his miss, rather than pass to a teammate for a three, he went back up with it and time expired.  It was an inexplicable ending to a hard-fought game.

Star of the Game. Bernard James, Florida State. On this day, Florida State does not advance without the play of Bernard James.  Given the off afternoons that the team’s two leading scorers, Ian Miller and Snaer had (eight combined points), James’ performance was a necessity.  He ended up with 18 points and nine rebounds.

Quotable.   “Give Florida State credit. They defended very well in the second half.  But we did what we needed to do; we just came up short.  It was a terrific college basketball game.” – St. Bonaventure head coach Mark Schmidt

Sights and Sounds.  St. Bonaventure, which appeared in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000, had a raucous and creative group of fans on hand in Nashville.  Florida State’s smaller contingent got very loud themselves after the Seminoles clawed back and took the lead. The Tomahawk Chop was out in full force on Friday.

What’s Next?  Third-seeded Florida State now looks to its matchup with sixth-seeded Cincinnati in what promises to be a defensive war.  Don’t expect a lot of offense in Sunday’s game.

Every time Florida State faces a vastly inferior opponent it might be tempting to go ahead and give the red hot Seminoles credit. Then you have to remember that while Florida State beat North Carolina and Duke two times apiece, this is a team that lost to Boston College, one of the worst teams to play in a power conference this year. Florida State is definitely a good team, but this loss sticks out as a stark reminder that the Seminoles know how to give one away. Not that St. Bonaventure needs any charity: this is a pretty good team that has a legitimate star in Andrew Nicholson and enviable size at most positions. St. Bonaventure presents a number of challenges to the Seminoles, but Florida State is equipped to deal with these challenges.

Nicholson Could Give The Seminoles Problems

So here’s a fun fact: despite all their defensive acumen and talented interior play, the Bonnies have been the better rebounding team over the course of the season. This team gobbles up misses on offense and secures the rock on defense. They aren’t reliant on the long ball and are skilled at getting the ball down low where both guards and forwards are fairly talented at drawing fouls. These are all good things, but unfortunately, these strengths don’t particularly play into the Seminoles weaknesses. The Seminoles defend the interior even better than they defend the perimeter and their depth leaves them largely immune to foul trouble. As good as St. Bonaventure has been at rebounding this year, Florida State has players who can definitely challenge the Bonnies on the glass.

Meanwhile, the Bonnies have one glaring weakness: they cough the ball up very freely. Now, Florida State does the same thing, but the two differ in one key way. Florida State makes up for it’s own turnovers by using pressure defense to force plenty of opponent turnovers, while St. Bonaventure has largely been unsuccessful at forcing opponent turnovers. In this disparity, Florida State has a big opportunity. The Bonnies susceptibility to pressure and disruptive defense plays right into the Seminoles hands. Leonard Hamilton‘s team will be able to do what it does best: make a team miserable on offense by breaking up the possession before it even really starts. Unless St. Bonaventure figures out a way to play exceptionally carefully against one of the most maddening defenses in America, I think that the Bonnies are very likely to lose the battle for possessions in a landslide, rendering most of the rest of the contest a moot point.

Still, Boston College…

1. Wilmington Star-News: For today’s games, North Carolina‘s John Henson is still a game time decision while Duke‘s Ryan Kelly will only be available for “specialty situations,” which I’m guessing means select end game scenarios that call for three-point shooters or foul trouble to both Plumlees. With both players out, the ACC’s two leaders lost in the conference tournament. Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams seem to feel confident enough to deal with these games with the players available, but both acknowledge that holding out the forwards is a risk.
2. Raleigh News and Observer: When North Carolina State finally heard its name called on Selection Sunday, it triggered an automatic extension in Coach Mark Gottfried‘s contract. In his first year at NC State, Gottfried turned around a struggling problem and led them to a tournament berth for the first time in a long time using basically the same players that were available last year. If Florida State, Virginia, and Duke hadn’t all had such extraordinary seasons, Gottfried probably would have been a mortal lock for ACC Coach of the Year. As it stands, however, he stands poised for a long-term stint in Raleigh, leading the Wolfpack back to glory. This article is also interesting for its financial specifics: Gottfried has round-based incentives that total up to nearly a million dollars if his team win a national championship.
3. The News-Press: This Florida State team has as much NCAA experience as many of the teams in the tournament after a Sweet Sixteen run last year that was cut short by a Cinderella named VCU. The Seminoles are stacked with veterans who feel good about how their past tournament success has prepared them to handle the distractions and novelties of the tournament. The most interesting comment, for me, however, comes from Deividas Dulkys who expresses ambivalence as the team assumes a new identity in the tournament: the favorite. Dulkys doesn’t quite say it, but there is a clear implication that the senior perhaps was less nervous about playing the underdog with nothing to lose and no target on the team’s back.
4. Naples News: The game between Florida and Virginia is a study in different team focuses. While the Gators are an offensive juggernaut, the Cavaliers are a defensive stalwart and when these two teams play today, something has got to give. While, I feel that the author does a good job of eliciting thoughtful quotes from the players and coach on this match-up, I have to object to a bit of the analysis. In terms of schematics, it makes sense to say that Virginia’s pack-line defense is vulnerable to a three-point assault, but the truth is that the Cavaliers have been excellent at guarding the three over the course of the season. Opponents average just 29.5% from beyond the arc against the Wahoos, the 13th best mark in the nation out of 345 Division I schools. While it seems like Virginia should be vulnerable to perimeter shooting because of the pack-line defensive scheme, the truth is that numbers just don’t show this.
5. Fox Sports Carolinas: Since the promotion of Reggie Bullock to the starting line-up, the North Carolina bench hasn’t offered many positive contributions to the Tar Heels’ campaign. James Michael McAdoo has been good, but not great, and while P.J. Hairston started the year with a bang, he faltered during conference play, entering a deep shooting slump. Then, suddenly, this past weekend, the Hairston of the non-conference schedule re-emerged, hitting big shots in the tournament and playing with a general confidence that has to be encouraging to his teammates. Hairston is a Greensboro native and it seems like he is eager to make a name for himself playing in the tournament in his home town. If the guard’s play matches his confidence and Hairston knocks down threes consistently for the Tar Heels, one of North Carolina’s primary weaknesses may have just disappeared.

1. Tallahassee Democrat: This is a pretty cool article about the last time Florida State won a basketball championship. That was 1991 in the Metro Conference (the year before the school joined the ACC), and the Seminoles were led by another clutch guard named Charlie Ward. This Florida State team doesn’t have the NBA talent of those teams from the early 1990s, but it’s coming together at the right time.
2. South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Miami is down about missing the NCAA Tournament, but the Hurricanes have something to prove in the NIT (where they garnered a #2 seed). Luckily, Durand Scott was reinstated by the NCAA, though his presence was sorely missed in Miami’s loss to Florida State in Atlanta (only to make matters worse, it was a game that probably would have put the Hurricane resume over the top). I hope the players mean it; I want to see Miami with a chip on its shoulder, both in the NIT and regular season next year.
3. Washington Post: Seth Greenberg is looking to possibly flesh out his roster a little bit this offseason. While he’s apparently OK with adding a junior college transfer, Greenberg made things very clear: “We’re not gonna take a warm body, we’re not gonna take a guy that’s gonna win us a game. I want to take a guy who has a chance to graduate.”
4. Soaring To Glory: Here’s a solid post on things to expect from Boston College next year. I think the author hits the nail on the head for the most part — especially on the team’s conditioning issues late in the season — though I think more emphasis should be given to guys Lonnie Jackson and Patrick Heckmann (whose fall was precipitated by a bad bout with mono). I think Ryan Anderson will develop, but he’ll need a second and third option more than anything next year.
5. Wilmington Star News: Brett Friedlander thinks NC State could be poised for a deep tournament run if it can keep focused. I have my doubts (specifically about the team’s depth), but I generally agree. The biggest thing will be avoiding the Selection Sunday hangover game the first weekend against San Diego State. The Wolfpack are capable of winning that game but will need to avoid costly turnovers and foul trouble at all costs. They also can’t get off to a slow start and need stars CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown to embrace the spotlight.

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

South

• Where does Kentucky head coach John Calipari rank among the top coaches in the country without a title? As he continues to chase his white whale, will this finally be the year?
• Indiana freshman swingman Remy Abell has been a solid contributor to the Hoosiers’ success.
• The status of Duke junior forward Ryan Kelly is still uncertain for the NCAA Tournament. In the classic “Stretch 4” role, Duke’s tournament fate could rest on Kelly’s availability.
• Notre Dame is a big fan of the Wilson-brand balls that will be used in the NCAA Tournament.
• Despite a successful regular season, UNLV still thinks its success will ultimately be determined by its play in the Big Dance. With Kentucky, Baylor and Duke all residing in the South, the Rebs will have their chance to make a big statement.
• Wichita State head coach Gregg Marshall has made a gritty journey to being the head coach of the Shockers. After the firing of Darrin Horn from South Carolina, Marshall’s name was almost immediately mentioned as a successor, but Marshall remains focused on his current team.
• Since Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun has returned from leave, guard Shabazz Napier has really stepped up his game.
• Iowa State‘s risky decision to hire Fred Hoiberg has really paid off for the Cyclones. Many programs tend to shy away from hiring beloved former players out of PR concerns in case things go south, but just one season in, Hoiberg has the full confidence of his administration as well as his fanbase.

Midwest

• The Creighton Bluejays aren’t bothered by Alabama‘s defensive prowess going into their opening round matchup. Creighton has pulled off wins against athletic teams in Long Beach State, Wichita State and San Diego State, but in an elimination setting, the margin of error becomes thinner.
• Kansas forward Thomas Robinson responded to some early smack talk from Detroit‘s Eli Holman prior to the team’s departure for Omaha. Holman was probably doing his best to keep confidence high, but likely generated some bulletin board material in doing so. Read the rest of this entry »

1. The Diamondback: The Maryland student newspaper doesn’t say it, but Terrell Stoglin‘s NBA draft decision comes down to whether or not he gets along with Mark Turgeon. if he does there aren’t many reasons for Stoglin to enter the draft this year, as he’s undersized and yet to show NBA-level passing or defense. However, if he’s unwilling to remain in Maryland’s program, the NBA Draft is probably the way to go (at best, I think he’s a second round pick). Stoglin is a player who would need to prove his worth in the summer league before earning a contract.
2. Testudo Times: This is a fascinating interview with  Turgeon. He talks about the ACC’s NCAA Tournament chances (even ranking the ACC talent, starting with North Carolina, Florida State, NC State and then Duke); he talks about Stoglin possibly turning pro; he even talks about life as a mid-major and his bracket. These are the kind of interviews I wish every coach would give. Sure, he carries some biases but he also carries a lot of insight. That’s better than the normal coachspeak we hear day in and day out.
3. Charlotte Observer: Despite claims that John Henson’s wrist injury won’t hurt North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament, I think Henson is especially valuable in one-and-done settings where there’s less time for opponents to prepare. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I would expect Henson’s non-conference effect to be much higher than his conference effect, where teams have more tape and general preparation time for the shot-blocking machine. Kendall Marshall may be the Tar Heels’ most valuable offensive player, but Henson allows guards to overplay the perimeter, knowing the lanky junior is available inside to swat field goal attempts.
4. CSNWashington: I don’t think Chris Knoche gives Tyler Zeller enough credit for his conference performance, but I do think he captures Mike Scott‘s importance very well. I’ll be surprised if Scott isn’t the first senior whose name is called during the NBA Draft. I’m not a draft expert, but Scott’s polished mid-range game is worth a late first-round pick alone.
5. Orlando Sentinel: [Author’s note: How can Florida State/Tallahassee be responsible for T Pain and Creed?] Apparently Roy Jones, Jr., released a rap video complimenting Florida State‘s recent basketball relevance. Seriously, with lyrics like “Step onto the court, hit you with a three, crossover eyes on me. … Jump shot in your face, call me Dulkys,” how could you go wrong?

EXTRA: Forbes has an explanation for the declining attendance in college basketball. Patrick Rishe’s argument rests on two main points: a lack of talent, and a lack of fan connection. I agree — somewhat — with both of his points, although I’d add the increasing popularity of the NBA into the first point, and emphasize high definition and game availability over both points. Even with shortened careers, we live in an age of social media where athletes can interact directly with fans for the first time; the one-and-done rule also increased the amount of talent on the floor for local colleges. The fan connection point is legitimate and true for smaller schools and bigger schools alike.

On Selection Sunday, the brackets were revealed and five different ACC teams found themselves dancing. Poor Miami didn’t make the cut, but when all you have to point to is a win against Duke and Florida State, it’s hard to fault the committee for taking a pass. (Remember last year when Virginia Tech had a Duke win and two Florida State wins and didn’t make it? Seth Greenberg does.) In any case, five teams made the cut and have been matched-up and seeded. We’ll have more in-depth analysis of each of the games, but for now, I just want to take a minute and have a quick look at how the placement of each of the ACC teams affects the chances at a good run in the tournament.

North Carolina (#1 seed in the Midwest)

The Tar Heels don’t have a lot to complain about. Sneaking into position for the third top seed behind Kentucky and Syracuse, North Carolina is strongly positioned for a good run in the tournament. The top half of the Midwest is relatively weak, and UNC’s only reason for complaint has to do with the #2 seed. Kansas is the top #2 seed and if they meet North Carolina in St. Louis, there should be a distinct Jayhawk crowd advantage. By the overall seeding chart, North Carolina should have had Duke as the #2 seed in its region. Of course, since the committee seeks to avoid regions with the top two seeds in the same conference, the two seeds got shuffled around. Potential intrigue on the path to the Final Four? Creighton at the #8 seed sets up the Ames Bowl, where Harrison Barnes would get to face his high school teammate Doug McDermott, who has been having one of the best seasons in college basketball. Meanwhile, the presence of Georgetown, Michigan, and, of course, Kansas summons memories of past tournament showdowns: each of these teams was the runner-up  from each of UNC’s first three national championships. The Kansas match-up also would give us plenty of reason to re-run this amusing clip (not that we need any additional reason to watch it again).

Roy Won't Be Smiling If He Has To Face Kansas In Saint Louis

Duke (#2 seed in the South)

All in all, I think Duke made out fairly well.  Sure, they got stuck in the same region as Kentucky on the 20th anniversary of “The Shot”, but honestly, the championship runs through the Wildcats. If you want to win it all, you will probably have to beat Kentucky. The rest of the region is significantly less impressive. Baylor, Indiana, and Wichita State have all shown signs of weakness, faltering down the stretch. All of these teams are capable of great things, but it’s hard to expect consistent quality out of any of them. The team that stands out as maybe the most dangerous is UNLV. The Rebels have also had their troubles during the course of the season, but they have an element of danger and unpredictability that makes me think that they could offer some nasty surprises for their opponent. It’s reasonable to predict Duke to make the Elite Eight and if the Blue Devils can make it past Kentucky, the rest of their tournament will be a breeze. It sounds so easy when I say it like that, doesn’t it?

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Even the normally stoic Leonard Hamilton broke out an unabashed grin after his Seminoles knocked off North Carolina for the second time this season for the ACC Championship. His team controlled the game from start to finish despite numerous attempts from North Carolina to claw its way back into the thick of things. It was the most exciting and best-played game of the tournament, featuring two teams trading tough baskets.

Leonard Hamilton Breaks Into A Smile After Winning His First ACC Title (Credit Ethan Hyman/News & Observer).

Florida State controlled the game from the get-go, leading by 16 towards the end of the first half. That’s when Roy Williams called a timeout and Harrison Barnes led the Tar Heels on a 9-2 tear (he had seven of those nine) to close the half only down nine points. The Seminoles shot 62% from the floor and 54% from three; North Carolina kept things close because Barnes had 15, and the team was +6 in turnover margin (scoring 11 points off turnovers to Florida State’s three).

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Well, it’s all over. After a fantastic ACC Tournament (especially the final two days) the results are in with the conference getting the expected five bids. But before we move on to bracket analysis it’s time to think about the last couple of days.

1. Keeping It Heel: A lot of people recently have been making a big deal out of Kendall Marshall‘s minutes (he’s averaging 36 a game recently). And while it’s true that Roy Williams normally doesn’t like to play his guys more than around 30 minutes, Marshall is an exception for multiple reasons: (1) since Dexter Strickland’s injury there’s a big drop-off from him to his reserve, Stilman White; (2) the speed of his game comes from his passing, not his legs; and (3) he’s not particularly foul-prone. The Tar Heels need Marshall, and while a little more rest might be ideal, he didn’t look gassed at the end of the Florida State game yesterday (his third game in as many days).
2. Raleigh News & Observer: JP Giglio checks in with his recount of the officiating controversy from Saturday’s North Carolina – NC State matchup, including recounting the brief Twitter exchange between Marshall and Alex Johnson (who tried to draw the charge on Marshall’s game-winning shot). NC State conspiracy fans will blame Brian Dorsey: Dorsey worked the controversial game where Karl Hess tossed Chris Corchiani and Tom Gugliotta; he called four of CJ Leslie’s five fouls; and he had the best angle of Marshall’s go-ahead layup with 10  seconds left.
3. Shelby Star: Leonard Hamilton and Terry Whisnant (a freshman guard averaging around eight minutes and two points a game) are the first Gaston County natives to win an ACC Tournament since 1987. Almost everyone talks about the big firsts (first time Florida State has ever won, first African-American coach to win, first team not Duke or North Carolina since 2004, etc.), but sometimes it’s cool to get a look at local emphasis. Gaston County started its ACC Tournament play strong behind Phil Ford and North Carolina, winning twice in the late 1970s, but the small North Carolina county’s conference postseason success has been dormant for the last 30+ years.
4. Orlando Sentinel: Welcome to the Florida State bandwagon everyone (I’m going to pretend I’ve been on it all year, ignoring the short stretch of games between the Clemson beatdown and blowout of North Carolina)! Now the question is can the Seminoles reach their second Final Four (the first came in 1972)… Dick Vitale and Digger Phelps both initially slotted Hamilton’s squad into the final weekend last night.
5. Independent Weekly: This article is a little dated (it was written after the ACC Tournament semifinals), but I love the author’s prose. I also think Adam Sobsey makes a good point that Duke was missing two key offensive pieces in Ryan Kelly (injured) and Andre Dawkins (AWOL). Dawkins has a history of fading down the stretch of the season, but Duke needs him to find his stroke for the NCAA tournament, or its potent three-point attack will be hurting.

EXTRA: A big congrats to Patrick Stevens of D1SCOURSE, who predicted one of the best brackets of the 115 tallied by The Bracket Project. Stevens’ bracket correctly identified 67 of the 68 members of the field, correctly seeded 38 of the 68 teams and only missed the seed by one of 64 of the teams. That’s incredible (for comparison Joe Lunardi got 67/35/61, Andy Glockner got 65/35/56 and Jerry Palm got 66/36/59).

VIDEO EXTRA: Thanks to @RnR_NCSU for this classic mashup of NC State’s selection reaction with Maury.