1. Wednesday night’s 67-62 loss to Purdue may have been the nail in the coffin as far as Bruce Weber‘s job goes at Illinois, and it only seems more so when you hear the coach address the situation. Weber sounded defeated after the game, claiming responsibility for many of the team’s shortcomings and admitting he should have done some things differently to help the Fighting Illini better succeed. “The sad thing about the whole thing — and I guess it’s my fault — is instead of creating toughness and developing a team, I coached not to lose all year,” Weber said, according to the Decatur Herald-Review. “That’s really sad.”
2. What a difference a year makes in Bloomington. As the Indianapolis Star‘s Bob Kravitz points out, it wasn’t long ago that 20-win seasons were the norm for the Indiana basketball program. Then Kelvin Sampson happened. Tom Crean was brought in to pick up the pieces and, all of a sudden, Hoosiers fans were stuck with 20-loss seasons instead. But after going 12-20 a season ago, the Hoosiers have reached that 20-win plateau and it seems finally safe to say that basketball is back in Bloomington.
3. When you think of great freshmen in the Big Ten, the names that quickly come to mind are Cody Zeller, Trey Burke, and Branden Dawson. But Iowa‘s Aaron White has been as good as any newcomer this season, and seems to have quite the future ahead of him with the Hawkeyes. White is averaging 10.2 PPG and a team-best 5.2 RPG and, after he was only lightly recruited out of high school, is quickly making coach Fran McCaffery look very bright for bringing him on board.
4. Earlier this week, we took a look at the Big Ten’s four legitimate title contenders and what their remaining schedules mean for their quest for the crown. On Thursday, AnnArbor.com‘s Nick Baumgardner examined the four most important players for those contenders. And if you think the list is a no-brainer, with guys like Big Ten Player of the Year candidates Jared Sullinger and Draymond Green, think again.
5. Michigan State‘s do-everything senior Draymond Green likes to talk a big game, but he’s also shown that he can back it up. Green is one of just a handful of front-runners for Big Ten Player of the Year,  but says he sometimes wishes he was playing in the past. “They changed the rules,” Green told the Detroit Free Press, in reference to the difference between the game now and in the ’80s. Not just all the talking, but “you could chuck somebody and get away with it. You could slam somebody and get away with it.” Right now, Green will have to settle for letting his game do most of the talking.

Uncertainty looms over Assembly Hall in Champaign nowadays as the Fighting Illini lost another game to Purdue on Wednesday night, their seventh loss out of eight games. Will the Illinois Athletic Director Mike Thomas get rid of Bruce Weber?  Will the Illini make the NCAA tournament?  These are legitimate questions on the minds of the Illini faithful but the biggest question is about their star center, Meyers Leonard’s future: will he come back for his junior season in Champaign? Let’s examine a few non-personal factors that might drive the sophomore’s decision regarding the NBA.

Leonard Has A Tough Decision To Make At The End Of The Season

Why should he leave for the NBA?  

1. “You can’t teach 7’1″.” – NBA scouts love to use that cliché. Leonard has all the physical tools to play the center position at the next level. He has shown that he can add muscle over the off-season (added 30 lbs) and certainly has the intensity to hang with the big guys on a nightly basis in the NBA. Averaging eight boards per game isn’t too shabby in the Big Ten, which is known for the physical brand of play. Defensively, he has been a highlight reel during the season as he has swatted balls into the second row of the sidelines, including a game-winning block against Northwestern on the road. Most of the NBA draft boards, such as NBADraft.net have him slated as a potential lottery pick. The scouts will waste no time trying to convince him about going pro after the college season because they might have seen enough for somebody with his physical build. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he has reached his ceiling in the college game, or maybe he did under the current coach.
2. Bruce Weber will coach Illinois in 2013 – Bruce Weber is not a bad coach because he understands the talented sophomore and his significance to the Illini offense. Even though Leonard could improve on his scoring average from this season of 13.2 points per game, he might have hit the ceiling in Weber’s system. True centers that have the skills to play with the back to their basket don’t shine under Weber’s offensive philosophy. The motion offense under Weber has been designed around guards who can shoot the deep ball. Illinois has been at the bottom of the league for years in terms of free throws per game (only 32.5% in 2012) because most of the offensive plays revolve around screens for the shooters rather than an attacking brand of basketball.  During their recent losing skid, Weber tries to commit to the big man over the first few minutes of the game but during the late minutes, most of the shots end up being away from the paint. Historically, centers that prefer to play in the post such as Shaun Pruitt have been frustrated in Weber’s system. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale rarely played with their backs to the basket or in the paint because they relied heavily upon the 15-footer from the baseline coming off the pick-and-roll plays. Leonard’s offensive game is more than a baseline jumper or a post move – he is a monster when he attacks the hoop off the picks but Weber has not and will not be able to utilize him better next season unless he adjusts his system. If Leonard comes back for a third year with an improved game, the skills need to be utilized efficiently by the coach otherwise his draft stock won’t improve after another year in college.

1. Not only was Indiana‘s 71-66 win over Northwestern a good one for the Hoosiers in terms of the Big Ten race and their NCAA profile, it was an important milestone for Tom Crean. After the first couple years of Crean’s tenure  at Indiana, he had a few 20-loss seasons on his resume, that that obviously was not good enough for the Indiana faithful. But Crean’s squad has turned the corner, and now boasts a 20-win season after their victory over the Wildcats. Not only should Hoosier fans be happy about the culture being changed back to a winning one, Indian also a much-needed win over Northwestern, who they were 1-6 against in their last seven against before last night.
2. The game between Purdue and Illinois was a turning point of sorts for both schools, as each needed a win desperately, and it was the Boilermakers who not only got the victory, but grabbed it on the road. As the Illini continue to reel, Purdue has won two in a row after losing four out of their previous five. With a record of 17-9, 7-6 in the Big Ten, Purdue could very well be dancing in March if they keep up their winning ways. Also, grabbing a win in Champaign against a team that wanted it just as bad may show that Robbie Hummel and Co. may finally be coming together at the right time.
3. It will be a battle tonight between Michigan State and Wisconsin, which has been one of the best basketball rivalries in the conference over the last few years. What has been a battle for the Badgers this season has been making shots. Wisconsin is the second-worst shooting team in the Big Ten this season at 42%, and if they want to try and win a conference championship, that number is going to have to go up. It will start with Jordan Taylor, Ryan Evans, and their teammates making a concerted effort to try and get to the basket and find better shots. If they are able to do that, and the #1 scoring defense in the conference can continue to hold opponents to 50 PPG, Wisconsin will be tough to beat.
4. I know that if you are reading this site, you love college basketball. I’m going to assume if you are like me, you also like free food. Well, Pat Chambers cost his fans free food when he decided to have Penn State pull back on the reins in their most recent win against Nebraska. The Nittany Lions have a promotion going that states any time the team scores over 70 points at home, all the fans in attendance will win free Big Macs from McDonald’s. By Chambers direction, his squad only scored 67 points when they could have accounted for more had they tried. Not to let mouths in Happy Valley go hungry, Chambers stepped up and served 200 free Big Macs to fans who showed up at a local Mickey D’s.
5. After a disappointing effort at home against Michigan State, Ohio State rebounded with a nice 78-68 win over Minnesota Tuesday night. Thad Motta clearly had his team playing much better basketball, and stars like William Buford (24 points) played much better than they did against Michigan State. Motta also used his bench much more liberally than he has all season, getting many players into the game early on against the Gophers. However, fans should not expect that trend to continue, as Ohio State is going to rely on their stars to try and capture a Big Ten crown.

1. In this week’s mailbag, which seems kind of short without his usual filler, Seth Davis takes a look at the panic surrounding Ohio State, the future of Connecticut in the post-Calhoun era, the immediate future for Bruce Weber and Illinois, and a couple other topics. As usual we agree with pretty much everything Seth says (or he agrees with what we have said before on this site). In particular, the Huskies could be in for a very rough stretch after Calhoun leaves as we mentioned more than two years ago.
2. Looking for analysis using advanced statistics from AAU basketball to predict how high school players project in college? If the answer is yes, then we have the link for you. Drew Cannon is continuing his prior work by looking at some of the top prospects from EYBL. We are not sure how much we trust the predictive value of these stats in what amounts to high school all-star games where fundamentals are hard to find, but it is worth keeping an eye on whether these statistics track out to actual on-court performance as college players.
3. With the regular season winding down, the noise surrounding national awards is beginning to intensify. The biggest award is obviously national player of the year and right now it looks like it is a two-horse race between Anthony Davis and Thomas Robinson. Unless one of those players falls apart down the stretch we suspect that the various national awards will be split between those two, but the question is which one will receive the majority of accolades. According to Michael Rothstein’s straw poll, Robinson appears to have a fairly comfortable lead. While there are a few interesting choices (read: homer picks), it is interesting that seven of the 54 voters polled did not include Davis in their top 3, which is surprising for the best player on the #1 team in the country. We are guessing that at least a few of the voters have not watched Davis in action on the defensive end where his effect appears to outweigh his individual statistical impact.
4. Yesterday, we discussed the impact of the Conference USA/Mountain West merger and how it would have relatively little impact on the rest of the landscape of college athletics as it was merely an attempt to survive. Dan Wolken goes further with that point by saying that it was driven by “pure, unadulterated fear” and that conference realignment will eventually bring about other similar moves that do not appear to make much sense on the surface, but are really just moves made to survive while the big fish continue to suck up more of the resources of the college sports ecosystem.
5. Joe Nocera has decided to continue his personal crusade against the NCAA despite the organization’s recent attempt to discredit his work, which is admittedly biased. This week he has decided to take a look at the issue of agents in college sports through the prism of college hockey, which allows players to have professional agents. Hockey is obviously a different animal than basketball in that many of its top players bypass college completely choosing instead to play in a variety of leagues that essentially amount to the minor leagues while hoping to make it to the NHL. Still the issues that Nocera brings up in the article are good ones and if we have any college hockey fans in our audience who are familiar with the workings of agents and its rules relating to amateurism we would love to hear what you think about it compared to how college basketball operates.

Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. 

The Fighting Illini may be playing for more than just their NCAA Tournament lives in the next three weeks. Multiple news outlets continue to speculate that Bruce Weber’s tenure as Illinois head coach may also be on shaky ground. Illinois was ranked in the Top 25 one month ago after knocking off Ohio State at home, and it looked like the team’s young talent was starting to come together. But since that game, the Illini are back in a familiar struggling position, having lost six of their last seven. Pressure continues to mount on Weber to turn this talented team around in a hurry, something he has been unable to do for several consecutive seasons. Tonight’s home game against Purdue is crucial for the coach to put the team in position to make a late-season run.

Bruce Weber is Firmly on the Hot Seat; How Will his Team Respond? (AP Photo/M. Conroy)

Illinois won consecutive Big Ten titles in Weber’s first two years at the helm in 2003-04 and 2004-05, and the ’05 team that advanced to the National Championship game before losing a close game to North Carolina was one of the decade’s best teams. But Weber has never been able to build on that initial success and the players that got him to the Final Four were Bill Self’s recruits from the previous regime. Self’s winning percentage from 2000-03 was .765 compared to Weber’s .688 in the nine years since, which includes the Final Four run with a 34-2 team. Since that title game appearance, Weber’s teams are 60-56 in the Big Ten and 2-4 in the NCAA Tournament.

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Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference. Follow him on Twitter (@Bill_Hupp) for his thoughts on hoops, food, PR, interesting fridge magnets and life.

Reader’s Take 

The Week That Was:

• House of Payne: Michigan State sophomore center Adreian Payne picked an excellent time to have the game of his career. The 6’11’’ sophomore has shown flashes of potential this year, but was particularly efficient against Ohio State. Payne finished 6-6 from the field for 15 points, grabbed four boards and blocked two shots – and more importantly, he frustrated Ohio State star Jared Sullinger with his wiry athleticism on the defensive end. Sure, Sullinger finished with 17 points and 16 rebounds, but he also turned it over 10 times and seemed to let the refs affect his play.
• Woes of Weber: That smoke you see emanating from Champaign might be coming from Bruce Weber’s increasingly hot seat. New AD Mike Thomas has already shown one under-performing head coach (Ron Zook) the door, and now the Illini have gone from leading the Big Ten at 4-1 to dropping six of their last seven and in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. As many Illinois fans will attest, this team just makes too many of the same frustrating mistakes on a continuous basis.
• Hummel A Handful: The Robbie Hummel that Boilermaker fans have been waiting for all season long finally emerged on Saturday against Northwestern. The senior tallied a season-high 27 points, nine rebounds and a couple blocks while logging 39 minutes of playing time. As badly as Northwestern needed to win that game, it was equally as valuable to Purdue, which couldn’t afford drop back-to-back games at Mackey Arena (especially with Michigan State coming to town in a week).

Tom Izzo Has The Spartans Vying For The Top Spot In The Conference.

Power Rankings

1. Michigan State (20-5, 9-3) – An even more impressive factor in Michigan State’s recent success is that they’re winning despite the shaky play of Keith Appling. The sophomore point guard seemed to be turning the corner in his new position early in the conference season, but he’s taken a few steps back since then. His accuracy from distance has slipped from 41% to 27% this season, and he had seven turnovers with no assists in their win over Ohio State.
2. Ohio State (21-4, 9-3) – Where has the Bucks’ offense gone? In two of their last three games, OSU has been held under 53 points. Granted, their opponents were defensive stalwarts Wisconsin and Michigan State, but still, this a team that is second in the Big Ten in scoring offense at nearly 73 points per game. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Saturday’s loss to Michigan State was certainly a tough one to swallow for Ohio State, which passed up a prime opportunity to create some distance in the Big Ten standings and move their home winning streak to 40 games. But the Buckeyes were dismal on offense, and the Spartans controlled the game nearly throughout. And, says All-American center Jared Sullinger, it was easy to tell the Buckeyes were frustrated. After further review, Sullinger said he and his teammates acted like “spoiled brats” during the game, complaining about calls and arguing with one another. It was clear the Spartans succeeded in taking Ohio State out of its game plan, but the Buckeyes have a chance back on track this week with critical games at Minnesota and Michigan.
2. Speaking of the Wolverines, they have quietly kept themselves right in the thick of this conference race, and have every reason to be considered a contender for their first conference title since 1986. Michigan is half a game behind Ohio State and Michigan State, but has a game remaining against the Buckeyes (the Wolverines split their season series against the Spartans) and, among those three teams, Michigan has arguably the easiest road the rest of the way. The Maize and Blue will host ESPN’s College GameDay on Saturday in its only game this week.
3. Iowa coach Fran McCaffery probably doesn’t get a chance to autograph too many items bearing Michigan State insignia, but he’s made an exception. The chair that McCaffery so famously slammed on the Breslin Center floor during the Spartans’ 95-61 blowout win against the Hawkeyes earlier this year was signed and auctioned off at a recent Iowa baseball fundraiser. The message McCaffery wrote? “Coach with passion!” Sounds about right.
4. The quiet grumbling concerning Bruce Weber‘s job security are starting to evolve into a hearty growl in Champaign, where Illinois has lost six of its last seven games, placing its head coach firmly on the hot seat. This chatter has been going on for some time, but Weber may be running out of time, writes The News Gazette’s Loren Tate. Athletic director Mike Thomas said he will “filter out the emotion”  when making an end-of-the-season evaluation about Weber, the same treatment football coach Ron Zook received. Will Weber suffer the same fate?
5. Every coach has his buzz words, and one of Tom Crean‘s favorites is “deflections.” If you listen to the Indiana coach’s postgame remarks or follow him on Twitter, he often preaches how important deflections are to his team’s performance. And now his players are starting to speak his language. According to the Indianapolis Star‘s Terry Hutchens, Crean jumped on the deflections bandwagon when he was an assistant at Western Kentucky under Ralph Willard in the early 1990s. A deflection — Victor Oladipo is the team leader with 220 — is considered a steal, blocked shot, tip, or a charge.

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Plenty of top 25 games are on Saturday’s slate while conference races heat up and bubble teams look for key wins.

#20 Virginia at #5 North Carolina – 1:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

• Coming off the crushing home loss to Duke on Wednesday, how will the Tar Heels respond? Without P.J. Hairston (sore foot) in the lineup, things could get a little dicey for #5 UNC. Hairston’s absence severely limits Carolina’s already thin back court depth. This game is going to be all about pace. Virginia plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation while North Carolina is one of the fastest teams. Point guard Kendall Marshallhas to get his team running as much as they can but we’ve seen time and time again how it is much easier to slow a game down than it is to speed it up. Wisconsin did this effectively at the Dean Dome earlier this season and you’re going to see the same blueprint from Virginia. The Cavaliers do a great job defending the three-point arc so UNC will likely get almost all of its points from inside or the free throw line. The Tar Heels are among the bottom five teams in America in terms of threes attempted to begin with and get 61.8% of their points from two-point range on average. Marshall and his teammates must be able to penetrate and move the ball well against Virginia’s strong half court defense.
  

  How Will Marshall & The Tar Heels Respond To Tuesday's Last Second Loss?

• Virginia’s biggest strengths are its defense and play of forward Mike Scott. At 60.3% from the field, Scott is among the best interior players in the nation, but will have to receive some help from a thin UVA front line in this game. Led by Tyler Zeller and John Henson, North Carolina has a ton of height up front that could give Scott a lot of problems. With Assane Sene still out with an ankle injury, the burden of helping Scott against UNC’s imposing front line falls to Akil Mitchell. His presence will be needed more on the defensive end to limit Zeller and Henson but Virginia is not going to win if Scott doesn’t score. Mitchell must be enough of a threat to prevent quick double teams on Scott, allowing him to maneuver around the UNC trees. Defensively, Virginia will look to pack its defense in and prevent Marshall from penetrating and dishing to Zeller and Henson. Making opponents take tough shots is something Virginia does really well and the Cavaliers will need to do it again. Harrison Barnes will likely oblige but Mitchell and Scott must force Zeller and Henson into shots outside the paint or falling away from the basket. If you allow those guys to receive the ball in the paint, you’re finished.
• Even though Virginia will likely slow the game down to a pace of its liking, the Cavaliers still must score the basketball. Sammy Zeglinski is five for his last 19 from the floor over the past three games and Jontel Evans has to have a good game at the point guard position. Virginia can’t turn the ball over and fuel the Carolina transition attack. It would also help if Joe Harris was knocking down triples, especially if Zeglinski can’t get out of his funk. Keep an eye on rebounding. North Carolina did a great job against Duke, showing some toughness on the glass that we haven’t always seen this year. Virginia is fourth nationally in defensive rebounding percentage but the Cavs really struggle on the offensive end. If the shots aren’t falling, Virginia will have a lot of one and done possessions if it can’t do a better job on the offensive glass. Good rebounding also helps a team control tempo and that’s exactly what Virginia needs to do in order to win this game on the road.

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1. For Nebraska, their first foray into Big Ten league play has been a tough one. The Huskers have a 3-9 league record after getting thumped at home by Michigan 62-46 Wednesday night. There is no doubt that the rigors of the Big Ten are much tougher than the Big 12, and Nebraska may be feeling the grind. The team will have to win 6 of their last 7 games to break even in the league, and the lack of success thus far has to be weighing on sixth year head coach Doc Sadler.
2. It was a good way to begin the week for Northwestern freshman guard Dave Sobolewski, as he picked up co-Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors. Sobolewski shared the award with Iowa forward Aaron White, and last night the two clashed on the court as the Wildcats and Hawkeyes did battle. While White had a great effort with 17 points and 12 boards, Sobolewski won the battle and the war as he scored a career-high 23 points and dished 7 assists in an 83-64 Northwestern win. The performance was no surprise for the young player who has been playing big minutes for Bill Carmody.
3. This season has been a roller-coaster of sorts for Illinois and head coach Bruce Weber. They have upset Ohio State and Michigan State, but have also lost at home to some teams they are expected to beat. Illini fans demand a winner, and while the program can boast plenty of successes, since former guard Dee Brown graduated, Illinois is now 49-50 in Big Ten play after last night’s 84-71 loss to Indiana. While there is no simple way to fix things, there is no doubt that expectations remain high for the program.
4. There are plenty of issues that coaches face every week in the Big Ten, but one that continues to puzzle everyone is how to matchup with Ohio State big man Jared Sullinger. He is a beast down low, so don’t try to put a smaller defender on him. But you can’t guard him with a 7-foot statue either, because Sullinger has great feet and plenty of post moves. Collapse the defense around him and he’ll beat you with his passing. Send him to the line, and he hits 76% of his free throws. You understand the dilemma.
5. Speaking of Sullinger, he grew up with and was a high school teammate of Michigan freshman point guard Trey Burke. In fact, Burke was coached by Jared’s father Satch Sullinger. The two have a special relationship, and it has been given an interesting twist as Sullinger and Burke now are on opposite sides of the bitter Ohio State – Michigan rivalry. They still remain friends off the court, but on it, there’s no chance they will take it easy on each other.