Game #157.  It’s a battle of rapidly fading bubble teams in the last week of the regular season.  Pretty much a knockout game, in the best-case scenario.

Northwestern wraps up its Big Ten Conference season with a game against reeling Minnesota on Wednesday night. It’s Senior Night for Juice Thompson, Northwestern’s career leader in assists, minutes, games played and starts. It’s also the Wildcats’ final tune-up before they head to Indianapolis needing to win the Big Ten Tournament in order to make their first-ever NCAA Tournament. For Minnesota it’s a key bubble game. The Gophers have lost seven of their past eight games and look to be out of the field of 68 right now. Even wins against Northwestern and Penn State in the regular season finale might not be enough to guarantee a spot, but it’d be a good start. Interestingly enough, this might also be a preview of a first round Big Ten Tournament contest. Join John Templon from Welsh-Ryan Arena at 8:15 p.m. ET for all the action.

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RTC’s Kevin Doyle, author of the weekly column, The Other 26, and the Patriot League Correspondent, will be providing conference tournament previews for all non-BCS conferences.

Three more conferences get their tournaments underway tonight which means that several more teams will have their dreams of advancing to the greatest Dance in the world dashed, while others will inch one step closer to winning their conference championship. Tonight the Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley and Patriot League tournaments all get underway. Belmont and Bucknell are the obvious favorites to win their respective conferences, but the Ohio Valley is a little unclear with Morehead State and Murray State butting heads at the top, and Austin Peay not too far behind.

Atlantic Sun

The Favorite: Belmont is the clear-cut favorite to win the league this year and advance to the Tournament for the first time since 2008 when they nearly upset Duke. A surprising setback at Lipscomb is the only loss that prevented the Bruins from going a perfect 20-0 in league play.

Dark Horse: Not surprisingly, Lipscomb is the dark horse to win the A-Sun. Although they have a rather pedestrian 12-8 record within the league, they were the only team to knock off Belmont. Plus, they boast one of the best players in the league with Adnan Hodzic as the senior forward from Bosnia is averaging 18 points and 7.5 rebounds a night. In their victory over Belmont, Hodzic tore up the Bruins going off for 26 points.

Who’s Hot: Winning 19 games in conference and not losing to a team located outside the state of Tennessee makes Belmont the hottest team in the Atlantic Sun. To be honest, it would be a real shock if the Bruins were not the last team standing come March 5.

Player to Watch: With Mike Smith—the Atlantic Sun Player of the Year from ETSU—sidelined with an injury, there is no clear player to keep an eye on during the tournament. Lipscomb’s Josh Slater, however, is someone to definitely keep tabs on. Most of the attention is focused on Adnan Hodzic, but no one in the A-Sun can fill up the stat sheet quite like Slater who averages 16.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists.

First-Round Upset: Campbell over East Tennessee State. ETSU looked to be one of Belmont’s biggest threats in the conference tournament, but the Buccaneers have been decimated by injuries to two of their top players: Mike Smith (ankle) and Micah Williams (shoulder); their status for ETSU’s first game is uncertain. Campbell is one of the coldest teams around having lost eight of their last nine games, but lost by just seven points to ETSU in their last meeting.

How’d They Fare? ETSU was a 16 seed and was ripped apart by Kentucky 100-71 in last year’s Tournament.

Interesting Fact: Dating back to the 2005 Tournament, the highest seed the Atlantic Sun team has received in the NCAA Tournament has been a 15. Assuming Belmont wins the league this year, that will all change.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Every night is big this time of year for different reasons. Four Big East teams fight for a bye in the conference tournament while one bubble team will try to make a huge statement on the road at Duke. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

#15 Connecticut @ West Virginia – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)

Huggins and the 'Eers End the Year With Not One, But Two Home Games, Starting With UConn

After West Virginia lost at Syracuse two weeks ago, there was some talk out there about them slipping towards the bubble. The Mountaineers have won twice since then (including a win over Notre Dame) and have locked up a bid even if they drop their final two home games. With a double-bye in the Big East Tournament out of reach for both teams, the focus now turns towards NCAA seeding and getting a single bye past the first day of the conference tournament. These teams are part of a four-way tie with Cincinnati and Marquette (also playing each other tonight) for seventh place at 9-7. They’re remarkably similar on paper; each has some shooting struggles, but they defend well, plus both dominate the offensive glass yet have a hard time clearing the defensive boards. This game will come down to offensive rebounding and whoever shows up with the most intensity on defense.

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Bucky Dent is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Sun. The A-Sun is among the first of the conference tournaments to tip off, with action set to begin Wednesday.

Tournament Preview and Prediction

The top two seeds play Wednesday, giving them a day off before playing in semifinal matchups Friday night. While weird stuff happens in March, there’s nothing to suggest that Belmont or ETSU should lose against Kennesaw State or Campbell, respectively.

On the other hand, a North Florida upset of Jacksonville or a Mercer victory over Lipscomb wouldn’t come as a surprise. The Ospreys’ season would be made by beating their crosstown rivals and the Bears are as hot as anyone not named Belmont in this league.

Regardless of who wins those games, though, it would be a real surprise if Belmont and ETSU didn’t play for the championship as they were clearly the league’s best teams. Strangely enough, the one fly in the ointment might be if Lipscomb survives Mercer on the Bears’ floor and gets a third crack at its Nashville rivals in the semifinals. All bets might be off at that point, but there’s a reason Belmont was 19-1 in the league this year. It had the best team and could win any type of game – fast, slow or moderately-paced. Look for the Bruins to win the A-Sun tourney and perhaps win an NCAA Tournament game with the right draw.

A Look Back

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Kellen Carpenter is an RTC contributor.

This is a story about Kenneth Faried and Morehead State. I know that it’s March now, and that Morehead State, who went 13-5 in the Ohio Valley Conference, has only the slightest chances of making a tournament splash. We have all March to talk about the contenders and the Big Dance. For now, let’s talk about Kenneth Faried and Morehead State. Actually, first let’s set the stage.

Faried is BTN's National Defensive POY

We are very good at measuring offense in basketball. We have a good sense of what is valuable and how much impact a player can make on the offensive end. The box score stats provide enough of a jumping-off point that a few bits of mathematical transformation can paint a pretty clear picture of a team or player’s impact on the offensive end. We’re talking about offensive efficiency, as good a tool as we have in college basketball. It’s so good, in fact, that we like to cheat and use opponent offensive efficiency to measure defensive efficiency, which is a pretty clever little trick. By measuring how opponents perform against a given team on average, we have some measure of that team’s defensive abilities.

The operative word here, however, is “team.” While we can tell how well a team performs by measuring their opponents foibles on offense, how do we assign individual credit? Not every player defends equally, and while I wouldn’t argue that defense isn’t a team effort, surely some players have a clear measurable defensive value over others. Defensive efficiency tells us very little about this.

Of course, maybe I was getting ahead of myself by plunging into advanced stats before just checking out the box score. Steals, blocks and defensive rebounds are all individually counted categories that suggest defensive aptitude, and indeed, after converting these categories into their tempo-free counterparts, we have a pretty good suggestion of players with specific defensive abilities. There are, however, problems with these categories. A block where an opponent retains possession really doesn’t do much good, yet those blocks are counted just the same as those that trigger fast-break opportunities. Steals generate extra possessions, but failed gambles for steals can lead to high-percentage shots. The example with steals highlights the bigger problem of what isn’t captured by the box score, namely, how good a player is at making the man he is guarding miss shots. Now, manual defensive charting and a thorough parsing of play-by-play data might be able to produce a pretty good individual opponent field goal percentage ranking, but so far, accurate and comprehensive data of this sort is just not available to us.

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Last night’s Big South and Horizon League losers knocked eight teams from the ranks of national title contenders.  That leaves a total of 310 teams vying for the crown this season.  Liberty, Winthrop, Charleston Southern, Gardner-Webb, Illinois-Chicago, Green Bay, Loyola (Ill) and Youngstown State — we’ll see you again next year!

Coming next: eight more teams eliminated from the Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley and Patriot Leagues tonight.

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #1 Ohio State 82, Penn State 61: “Jon Diebler might have missed his first and last triple tries but he connected on 10 straight in between, pouring in a career high 30 points as the Buckeyes clinched at least a share of the B1G regular season conference title by routing Penn State 82-61 tonight in Happy Valley.” (Eleven Warriors)
• #6 Purdue 76, Illinois 67: “The game almost felt secondary tonight, as the Boiler faithful sent off 33 and 25 with many resounding Mackey cheers, as thanks for four years of dedication and hard work. Once again, the place was clearly deafening even through the TV broadcast. Let’s say that first, everyone: great work again, especially the Paint Crew who always brings it. As is always a concern on a night like this, the home team fell behind. However, it wasn’t really that Purdue was playing poorly — Illinois was just shooting the lights out and playing like the team we all thought they were capable of bring this season. Of course, that only lasted about ten minutes and then they reverted to the Illinois who resides on the bubble.” (Boiled Sports)
• #16 Florida 78, Alabama 51: “With their 78-51 victory over Alabama Tuesday night, the Gators clinched a share of their first SEC championship since 2007. The Gators (23-6, 11-3) were led by Chandler Parsons’ 19 points and 11 rebounds, as the Gators dominated the second-half following an even first half. The Gators used several second half runs to put distance between them and the SEC West champions.” (Alligator Army)
• #22 Kentucky 68, #19 Vanderbilt 66: “What a game. I have not been more nervous at any time this year. The Kentucky Wildcats and the Vanderbilt Commodores battled to the wire in Rupp Arena in a wild affair that went down to the last tick of the last second before Kentucky could claim their 15th and final home game for a perfect season in Rupp Arena. But it was by no means a perfect game.” (A Sea of Blue or Anchor of Gold)
• Nebraska 69, #21 Missouri 58: “This was the second game this season in which I was truly and completely disappointed.  The other — Oklahoma State — could be blamed, at least a bit, on ridiculous travel trouble (anytime it takes you two days to get where you’re going, you probably aren’t going to be amazingly sharp).  Missouri is 30 games through the season now, and the fact that they were able to play their worst game of the season now is, in and of itself, cause for alarm.  In each of the past three seasons, they haven’t played their best in the final week before the conference tournament, but to me, at least, this was possibly a new level.  (Then again, I probably didn’t enjoy the 25-point whipping Kansas laid on Missouri two years ago either. That ended up alright.)” (Rock M Nation)

Other Games of Interest

• Boston College 76, Virginia Tech 61: After a huge win over Duke that led some to predict that the Hokies were definitely a NCAA Tournament team they came out flat on Senior Night against the Eagles. (Tech Hoops)

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1. The biggest news of Tuesday was undoubtedly the loss of BYU’s Brandon Davies, a sophomore forward who was banging his way to 11/6 nightly, picking up scraps left over from Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery, the two leading scorers.  Davies allegedly broke the school’s honor code, and he was suspended for the rest of the season.  The Cougars are tracking toward a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they’ll need to prove that they can play just as well without Davies in the lineup as they have with him to satisfy the NCAA Selection Committee.  Forward Noah Hartsock is expected to move into Davies’ vacated center position, but Hartsock’s power forward spot will need to be filled by a less experienced player such as Kyle Collinsworth or Charles Abouo.  Very tough break for Dave Rose and the BYU program in its best season in a generation.
2. In other news involving personnel losses (or non-losses), UNC backup guard Reggie Bullock will miss the remainder of the season with a torn lateral meniscus that he suffered during the weekend’s Maryland game.  This is not a huge loss for the Heels, as Bullock was only contributing 6/3 in about fifteen minutes per game this season, but he was third on the team in three-pointers made (29) and this will make Roy Williams’ team a little more suspect against zone defenses the rest of the year.  In much better news, Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen had his right wrist x-rayed after banging it in Monday night’s game against Texas, and although it was sore and swollen, there is no broken bone.  He is expected to play this coming weekend in Senior Day festivities at Bramlage Coliseum against Iowa State.
3. Luke Winn gives us his top eight potential bid stealers for the next two weeks — teams who could make strong runs through their conference tournaments to knock someone like Virginia Tech or Michigan off the ‘last four in’ line.  Winn’s list is a good one, but we’d perhaps add a few more names to the discussion: Washington State (Pac-10), Alabama (SEC), San Francisco (WCC) and any number of teams from Conference USA.
4. Remember former Binghamton guard DJ Rivera, the former America East star whom coaches refused to vote for POY in 2009 even though he was clearly the best player in that league?  Oh, he also was partially responsible for the implosion of the Binghamton program when he was arrested in the fall of 2009 for swiping a debit card and subsequently using it to purchase snacks, cigars and a large-screen television before getting caught.  His arrest along with Tiki Mayben’s commensurate arrest for selling crack cocaine resulted in several players getting kicked off the team and a national scandal that the school is still recovering from.  Why is this relevant now?  On Monday, Rivera pleaded guilty to the crime — fourth degree criminal possession of stolen property — and he will face nine months’ probation, which, if he keeps his nose clean, will allow him to reduce the charge to a misdemeanor and pursue a basketball career overseas.  This plea marks the final chapter in the scandal — BU has gone 20-40 since the program was destroyed that summer.
5. Maybe these guys should talk to our friends at HSAC so as to learn how to properly perform an interesting study.  Virginia Tech, fresh off three straight years on the wrong side of the bubble, commissioned statisticians at the College of Science to determine what the biases are that go into making bubble selections into the NCAA Tournament.  Their conclusion: a team’s RPI, its strength of schedule, and its historical pedigree factor prominently into successful bids.  In other words, everything you already knew.  Across campus, no doubt, Hokie researchers have recently proven that water is indeed wet and sunshine comprises the majority of daylight.  Here’s a memo to Seth Greenberg: how about instead of hanging your hat on a few big-time wins every season, you beat the teams you’re supposed to beat, especially at home.

The Lede.  The story of this week so far appears to be just how difficult it is for us to find 37 at-large teams to fill out this year’s bracket.  Can you imagine how this would look if they NCAA had expanded to 96 teams?  We’d be discussing teams like New Mexico, Cal and Ole Miss as serious candidates for inclusion, a specter that nobody would want to face.  Memo to all the bubble teams — give us a reason to support your selection, will you?

Diebler Didn't Need to Drive Tonight (AP/J. Beale)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble.  On Saturday night, after Virginia Tech successfully vanquished the Dookies and RTC’d with reckless abandon, we wrote: “Did Virginia Tech Finally Get Over the NCAA Hump? Of course, it’s hard to say for certain with these guys.  After vanquishing #1 Duke for its most important win in years, the Hokies will probably turn around and lose to Boston College at home on Tuesday.  Let’s hope not.”  Sigh………  And Seth Greenberg dares to argue year after year why his team is left on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in?  His team didn’t show up tonight, falling behind by as much as 30-12 in the opening minutes and only making half-hearted runs the rest of the way — put simply, BC appeared to be a team that wanted to play in the NCAAs, while Tech seemed to play like they were already guaranteed a bid.  The Hokies now sit at 19-10 (9-6 ACC) with a tough trip to fellow bubbler Clemson over the weekend on the horizon.  It’s going to be another one of those Marches for the Virginia Tech fanbase, as even with a bubble softer than Greenberg’s midsection, the Hokies are no lock for the NCAAs and are generally unlikely to make things easy on the Selection Committee.

In other Bubble trouble, several teams hurt their case in what is rapidly becoming a race to the dirty bottom in terms of finding enough legitimate teams to fill out this year’s 68-team bracket.

• Baylor – The Bears were already on a bit of life support with only a handful of bracketologists having Baylor as a part of the 68-team field based on their current resume.  Getting a road win against a middle-pack Big 12 team would have helped, but a terrible shooting night from their backcourt of LaceDarius Dunn and AJ Walton (combined 5-26 FGs) did them in.  The Bears host reeling Texas over the upcoming weekend, but it’s looking more and more that, with a weak RPI and few quality wins of substance, that the only way Baylor finds its way back into the Dance is by making a run in the Big 12 Tournament.
• Alabama – For a half, it appeared that maybe, finally, inexorably, Anthony Grant’s team might get the kind of marquee win that would make all the bracketologists stand up and take notice that they’re playing some pretty good ball down in Tuscaloosa this winter.  It wasn’t to be.  Florida blistered the Tide with a 48-21 second half, breaking open a tied game at the half and clinching the Gators’ first SEC regular season title since the Oh-Fours left campus in 2007.  For Bama, its rough non-conference schedule is likely to act as an NCAA albatross two Sundays from now — the Tide needs to win the SEC Tournament, more than likely, to Dance this year.
• Illinois – The Illini competed with Purdue tonight, but they simply weren’t going to beat the Boilermakers in their building where they were 16-0 this season.  This loss won’t hurt them much, but they do not want to enter the Big Ten Tournament next week with an 8-10 conference record and absolutely needing a win, do they?  Beating Indiana at home is a security blanket that they cannot afford to drop (Illinois lost to Indiana in Bloomington, remember).

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Louis Farrakhan as College Hoops Patron.  Yes, you read that correctly.  We don’t usually think of the elderly Nation of Islam leader and college basketball at the same time, ever, but Farrakhan attended tonight’s NC State-Virginia game to represent for his grandson, Cavalier guard Mustapha, during his Senior Night.  Farrakhan the Younger dropped 15/4/3 assts in an 11-point win for Virginia, a key victory as the Wahoos attempt to keep an overall winning record to become NIT-eligible this season.  The Cavs are currently 15-14 with a road game at Maryland and the ACC Tournament upcoming, so they still have some work to do.  We suppose this might be the first and only time that Farrakhan will ever attend a college hoops game.

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In a shocking development less than two weeks before Selection Sunday, BYU announced that it has suspended Brandon Davies, its starting center, for the rest of the season for a violation of its Honor Code (official statement available here). Davies had sat out Monday’s practice with what was reported to be a quadriceps injury, but may in fact have been a waiting period while the school made the final decision on his status for this season, as he did play in the Cougars’ 80-67 road win at San Diego State. The school would not elaborate on what Davies had done to violate the school’s Honor Code, but as anybody who is familiar with the school is aware it is something that they take very seriously, since they even have a home page for it. The honor code is quite extensive, and if you want to read through it and some of its nuances we encourage you to check out the official page, but we think the pertinent parts are where a student must pledge to:

Be honest
Live a chaste and virtuous life
Obey the law and all campus policies
Use clean language
Respect others
Abstain from alcoholic beverages, tobacco, tea, coffee, and substance abuse
Participate regularly in church services
Observe the Dress and Grooming Standards
Encourage others in their commitment to comply with the Honor Code

We will eschew speculation on what Davies did to merit this suspension in favor of waiting for the school (or more likely Davies) to reveal what the root cause was, but it is a devastating blow to a team that appeared to be in line for a #1 seed on Selection Sunday. Although most of the nation knows the Cougars as Jimmer Fredette and a bunch of guys who inbound the ball to Jimmer, they actually have three players who are averaging double-digits (that’s one more than Duke if you don’t include Kyrie Irving).

Davies' suspension leaves BYU with a hole in the middle (Credit: Chris Landsberger/The Oklahoman)

While Jimmer gets a majority of the accolades and rightfully so, the Cougars have/had a pair of other solid scorers in Jackson Emery (12.6 PPG) and Davies (11.1 PPG and 6.2 RPG). The suspension of Davies means that not only do the Cougars lose their leading rebounder and primary source of inside offense, but it also places added pressure on many of the little-used Cougar big men, as Davies and Noah Hartsock were the only two interior players to average over 10 minutes per game. It is unclear how the NCAA Selection Committee will view the suspension with regard to BYU’s seeding, but it will significantly hinder BYU’s chances of making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament and could put a damper on Jimmer-mania.