With the holiday season in full swing, last week’s slate of games did not significantly alter the Top 25. Syracuse remains perched atop the rankings with Ohio State and Kentucky lurking close behind. In fact, there was virtually no movement in the Top 10 at all. One team that continues to spiral downward thanks to suspensions following the Crosstown Brawl is Xavier, who was once a legitimate Top 10 team, but now sits at #20. The Quick ‘n Dirty after the jump…

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

As we head into conference season, we will focus on two games that feature four teams that need a quality win to kick off the “second season”.

Jamie Dixon Needs Someone To Step Up Against Notre Dame

• Without point guard Travon Woodall (currently listed as a game-time decision), Pitt is a two-man team.  Ashton Gibbs and Nasir Robinson have taken 41% of the teams field goal attempts. Luckily, the level of competition the team has faced since the Woodall injury has not been stellar. However, they ran into a tough Wagner team last Friday that gave the Panthers their second home loss to a mid-major team this season. Gibbs is only shooting 38.5% from two-point range and shoots an equal amount of two-point and three-point attempts (just over 100 from each). Robinson is shooting much better from inside the arc, hitting 68.9% of his two-point attempts. To grind out a few more wins prior to Woodall’s return, Jamie Dixon’s team will need to get help from someone other than Gibbs and Robinson. Keep an eye on who steps up against Notre Dame. If a third scorer does not emerge, the pressure on those two may be too much.
• Notre Dame is in desperate need of a win against a quality opponent. Through 13 games this season, they have zero wins against a school from a major conference. They have lost to Missouri, Georgia, Gonzaga, Maryland, and Indiana. While the Notre Dame offense ranks in the top 50 in efficiency, they have managed to shoot 50% eFG or under in 7 of their 13 games – going 2-5 in those games. Pitt has only allowed three of its opponents to shoot over 50% eFG. In more bad news for Mike Brey’s team, the Panthers are #1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. Both areas are weak spots for the Irish. Since the Irish may be catching Pitt in one of its last gamess without its point guard, it is a perfect time for them to pick up a quality win at home. However, they will have to play a lot better than they have played all season.
• Notre Dame must figure out a way to hit more shots and grab more rebounds. Unfortunately, Pitt is stronger in both areas. Keep a close eye on the Panthers’ rebounding numbers and field goal defense. If they win in those areas and get some contribution from another source than Gibbs and Robinson, they will win. The Irish must keep Pitt a two-man show, if they are to have a shot in this one.

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1. With the ascension of Harvard from an also-ran into a borderline top 25 and the 2010 Sweet 16 run of Cornell it has become apparent that Ivy League is no longer the pushover it once was on the basketball court. For years, many have cited the conference’s rule against athletic scholarships as a reason for their poor performance against other schools in major sports, but it appears like the schools have found a way around that restriction by offering “substantially enhanced financial aid for all admitted students”. While this decision affects individuals coming from economically disadvantaged backgrounds regardless of athletic ability and could lead to significant societal change down the road, the immediate impact is being felt in sports where Ivy League teams are less handicapped as they can offer financial aid packages that are not too far from what an athletic scholarship would offer. While some question what are felt to be reduced academic standards for admissions for many of these athletes, in theory the decision to allow for these increased financial aid package should be an effective one as long as athletic programs do not compromise too much on the basic mission of their schools.
2. It looks like Jamie Dixon may be getting a late Christmas present as he announced yesterday that Tray Woodall would be a a game-time decision tonight against Notre Dame. Woodall, who leads the team with 8.3 assists per game, has been out for five games so far with an abdominal injury and his return would be big for a team that has struggled at times this year including an embarrassing five-point loss on Friday at home against Wagner. Fortunately, Pittsburgh has played an easy schedule so far this season and will not face a ranked team until January 14, which means they should have a solid record heading into the most difficult part of their conference schedule.
3. Many fans worry about how their favorite team will fare at this time of year with the distractions of final exams and Christmas. When teams lose their fans often attribute it to those distractions and it has become such an ingrained part of college sports that most fans and many in the media point to it as the primary reason when a ranked team loses. John Ezekowitz decided to take a look at this often-cited phenomenon and found some interesting results based on how favored home teams perform against the spread at this time of year, which is probably reasonable way to account for the variable strength of opponents. As he points out the results are subject to some manipulation like Las Vegas lowering lines to account for this reported effect, but it is still an interesting result.
4. We are barely past Christmas, but Ken Pomeroy is already ready to start giving you the likelihood that each team will win their conference. Of course, being one of college basketball’s foremost sabermetricians Ken is not content just to pull numbers out of thin air (or other places). Instead, he uses Monte Carlo simulations based on his statistical analysis so far this season. Basically what he is doing is simulating each conference season 10,000 times under varying conditions (set by Pomeroy) and takes what happens on average in those 10,000 conference seasons. As the first part of this season’s project, Pomeroy unveils the six least competitive conference races. Five out of the six he lists are not surprising and we probably could have told you that they would be the least competitive conference races off the top of our heads (think very good teams in very bad conferences), but the fifth least competitive conference is a little surprising to us. As we say with all prediction models, you need to be cognizant of the inputs as they can lead to drastically different results than you would expect. In this case, those inputs would be teams that you think are significantly overvalued or undervalued by Pomeroy’s analysis.
5. One piece of news from the weekend that we forgot to mention in yesterday’s Morning Five was the death of Chicago prep power broker McGlother “Mac” Irvin, who created the nationally known Mac Irvin Fire basketball team that has featured some of the best high school players from Chicago over the past 20 years. Irvin, who worked as an executive for Xerox until 1992 before setting up his basketball club was one of the most well-known figures on the high school basketball circuit. Irvin’s death on Christmas Eve from complications of diabetes mellitus will be felt throughout the Chicago basketball scene and his memorial services on Thursday and Friday should be a veritable “Who’s Who” of Chicago high school basketball.

1. We hope all of you had a Merry Christmas or are enjoying whatever holiday celebration you partake in and if you don’t celebrate any we hope you had a good weekend anyways. If you were one of those attempting to get a last-minute holiday gift over the weekend, we hope you were not trying to get the Air Jordan Retro 11 Concords because apparently they were a very hot ticket item over the weekend with hundreds of people and in some cases over a thousand people lining up at some stores to buy the shoes. Unfortunately, demand appeared to exceed supply as some consumers ended up fighting leading to a handful of arrests across the country. Some readers, who may remember reports of violence associated with the shoes in the 1990s, may have heard about a reported murder with this release of the shoes, which fortunately appears to be false. The shoes, which sold for $180 at stores, appear to be going for 2-3 times as much as that on eBay today. While they are more expensive to purchase online you get to avoid the potential violence. Or you could just wait a week for the next shipment of the shoes to come in.
2. While Virginia is off to its best start since the 2000-01 season at 10-1, it appears that not everyone on the team was happy as redshirt freshman James Johnson and sophomore KT Harrell have both decided to transfer. The school has not released any information as to why the players are leaving or where they are looking at going, but it is interesting to see that two more members of Tony Bennett‘s first class at Virginia leaving. To date, four of the six members of his inaugural class have left the program. We are not sure if this is a reflection on Bennett’s style of coaching or on the players in that class, but it is something worth watching going forward for the program.
3. Former Seton Hall player Robert Mitchell sentenced to five years of probation for his role in robbing eight students at gunpoint on March 15, 2010. Mitchell, who has already served a seven-month jail sentence, claimed that he was unaware of the initial intentions of Kelly Whitney, another former Seton Hall player, when the incident took place. Mitchell testified against Whitney earlier this year and although the victims recounted both former players as active participants it was Whitney who was sentenced to a three-year prison term, which he is currently serving, while Mitchell was given the seven months in jail and the aforementioned probation. Whitney, who eventually pleaded guilty, is eligible for parole next fall.
4. Coming into the season the Big 12 was considered as wide open as it had been in years particularly with seemingly perennial champion Kansas having a down year, but one team that nearly every analyst left out of the conversation was Kansas State. While we are not ready to call them the favorites or even legitimate contenders yet, the Wildcats certainly appear to be better than the sixth best team in the Big 12 as they were rated in the conference’s preseason poll. The Wildcats may not be ready to contend with the big boys (Baylor, Missouri, and Kansas) in the conference yet, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they stay in the top 4 and maybe a bit higher if one of the aforementioned three teams slip a little. In any case, after winning the Diamond Head Classic the Wildcats should be getting serious consideration in top 25 polls.
5. Xavier put a temporary halt to their post-brawl freefall when they beat Southern Illinois in the 7th place game of the Diamond Head Classic. The fact that Xavier went from being #8 team in the country a few weeks ago to finishing 7th in a very mediocre tournament should tell you plenty about how hard they have fallen. While some of their recent struggles can be attributed to the immediate loss of Tu Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dezmine Wells (for varying time frames) it also appears like they may be struggling to find their identity and edge after being ripped apart by the media and the public following their fight with Cincinnati and more specifically the post-game comments of Holloway and Lyons. Fortunately, they have plenty of time to right the ship before their season is lost and with Gonzaga coming to town on New Year’s Eve they will have a chance very shortly to reestablish themselves with their entire team back from suspension for the first time since the fight.

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Las Vegas is the place to be on this Friday night before Christmas. Sin City hosts three quality basketball games at two different venues this evening .

California @ #20 UNLV – 5:00 PM EST on CBS Sports Network (****)

Moser Has Been Outstanding in a UNLV Uniform (LV Sun/S. Morris)

•  Chace Stanback was simply fantastic for the Runnin’ Rebels on Monday against Louisiana-Monroe, scoring 29 points on 10-13 shooting (including 8-9 from downtown). UNLV needs its swingman to have another solid game against a very good California team. The Rebels play fast and shoot lots of threes but Mike Moser can have the biggest impact on the game in the post. When Moser is playing well, it’s so much easier for Dave Rice’s team to get open looks from deep. Playing that inside-outside game with good distributors at the guard position in Anthony Marshall and Oscar Bellfield, UNLV has no problem getting into an up-and-down game where it’s often easier for them to make shots in transition. The Rebels are a well-balanced team capable of hanging plenty of points on the opposition.
• California has been dealing with plenty of health issues recently. Senior leaders Jorge Gutierrez and Harper Kamp have been fighting illnesses while Richard Solomon is out with a stress fracture. Gutierrez and Kamp should play tonight and that will be important as the Golden Bears need to show poise in a tough environment on the road. Guards Gutierrez and Justin Cobbs need to play smart and control the tempo by protecting the ball and running efficient half court sets. Cobbs had 25 points on 10-12 FG against UC Santa Barbara on Monday for the 10-2 Golden Bears. California doesn’t shoot many threes but Allen Crabbe is a big time deep threat for Mike Montgomery. The budding sophomore hits on 45.8% of his triples and represents a major threat to a UNLV defense ranked #205 against the three-ball.
• Cal’s two losses have come against the better teams on its schedule. This is another chance for the Golden Bears to prove they’re the best team in a watered down Pac-12, something they’ve yet to do in convincing fashion. California has a strong interior defense led by Kamp and freshman David Kravish, although the absence of Solomon could cause problems if Cal’s big men get in foul trouble. Cal needs to control the backboards against Moser and company. If Gutierrez and Cobbs can control tempo, Cal will have a good chance to pull off the road victory. One area to watch is if Cal can keep UNLV off the foul line. The Golden Bears have the #4 defensive free throw rate, an important statistic against a Rebels team that shoots 73.4% from the stripe. With all of that being said however, it’s hard to predict a Golden Bears victory in what should be a raucous Thomas and Mack Center. California hasn’t proven it can win a big game yet and until they do, UNLV has to be the choice.

#5 Baylor vs. West Virginia (at Las Vegas, NV) – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN (****)

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. You can follow him on Twitter @zhayes9.

Next Tuesday marks a crucial day in the college basketball calendar. Not only have final exams been completed and Christmas break is in the rear view mirror, but the soft underbelly of the schedule is also in the past. Pitt battling Notre Dame and Wisconsin traveling to Nebraska are just two of the conference games scheduled for next Tuesday as we officially move beyond the slowest two weeks of the season into a non-stop hoops until early April.

Many questions have been answered during the season’s unofficial first half. Frank Haith wasn’t such a bad hire after all. Baylor can win on the road. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone is as lethal as ever. The Pac-12 is worse than even the most cynical projection. The Missouri Valley is the best mid-major league and may receive three bids. The beauty of college basketball is that there’s still so much more to be determined and the conference slate offers the ultimate growing process.  Here are some questions I still have for the top contenders. Only the next three months hold the answers.

Improved decision making from Scoop Jardine would enhance Syracuse's chances of winning it all

#1 Syracuse: Last four minutes of a tie game, who responds? The Orange have been fantastic so far, plowing through a relatively benign and home-friendly schedule to climb atop the rankings. In their one nail-biter down the stretch, Kris Joseph displayed an aggression down the stretch that didn’t show up as a junior. Can he maintain that killer instinct into Big East play? Will Scoop Jardine regress into a turnover machine and take poor shots? Will their breadth of inexperienced big men tense up? I’m anxious to see how Syracuse responds to adversity against a talented opponent on the road.

#2 Ohio State: How healthy is Jared Sullinger? A potentially lingering back injury was enough of a concern before suffering a bone bruise in his foot in the opening minutes at South Carolina. How long these injuries nag the near-consensus preseason national player of the year could determine if Ohio State earns their second straight top seed. Ohio State runs so much smoother with Sullinger at full strength. His presence allows Craft, Smith, Buford and Thomas to spread the floor, opening up dribble penetration lanes and preventing double-teams on the Buckeye big man.

#3 Kentucky: How much maturation over the next three months? Kentucky is the most talented team in the nation. Their seven-man rotation is tremendously multi-faceted, versatile and athletic and John Calipari is a master at molding a group of raw players into a cohesive unit. The hourglass never stops, though. There’s a limited amount of time for Cal to work his magic. Terrence Jones can’t check out of games. Marquis Teague has to become more efficient. Anthony Davis must develop some semblance of a low-post game. There’s work to be done. Now it’s just a matter of if it can get done in time to outlast Florida in the SEC and win big in March.

#4: Louisville: Can defense carry this team? The Cardinals are clearly not the fourth best team in the nation. They rank 12^th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, 65^th in offensive efficiency and shoot 32% from three. Louisville is 11-0 because they work harder than anyone for 40 minutes, only left the Yum! Center once to play a young Butler team, and, most of all, play outstanding defense. Pitino employs an aggressive matchup zone that can morph into a man-to-man on a post touch immediately. Even with Wayne Blackshear returning at some point in January, the Cards are still very limited offensively when compared to Syracuse, Connecticut or Marquette. Can their chaotic, suffocating defense reign supreme against more potent offensive opponents?

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1. Aaric Murray, who is sitting out this season after transferring from La Salle to West Virginia, was arrested in Philadelphia, his hometown, on Thursday morning for possession of marijuana. Having not learned the specifics of the charges we cannot comment too much other than to say that unlike narcotics, which marijuana is not despite reports otherwise on multiple sites yesterday, marijuana possession usually carries fairly light penalties. We are also not familiar with the details of Murray’s prior legal troubles, which could affect his sentencing if he is formally charged, although we have heard reports of prior behavioral issues. Murray, who averaged 15.2 PPG and 7.7 RPG as a sophomore at La Salle, would be a significant addition to the Mountaineer lineup next season assuming he does not blow that opportunity by ending up in these situations often. West Virginia has only released the following statement from Bob Huggins: “I’ve been alerted about the situation and the matter will be handled internally.”
2. We have seen a lot of strange things from teenagers involved in the world of college recruiting before, but the actions of Torian Graham yesterday may have raised (or lowered) the bar. In the morning, Green, one of the top shooting guards in this year’s graduating class, recommitted to North Carolina State after having backed out of a commitment he had made to the school in May. When he announced, Graham said, “I’m all in for NC State.” Just a few hours later Graham decommitted from North Carolina State again saying, “Something came up… I don’t really want to talk about it.” We have no idea what could have come up in such a short period of time other than Mark Gottfried saying the offer was no longer on the table that could have changed Graham’s mind, but as you can imagine the people around the NC State program are not to thrilled with the latest turn of events and are suggesting that the team stop recruiting Graham. We doubt that Gottfried will do that, but it should be concerning for him or any other coach that is recruiting Graham.
3. We have a couple of Khem Birch updates coming from fairly reliable, but divergent sources. On one side there is a report that Birch is interesting in coming back to Pittsburgh although he has not talked to Jamie Dixon yet. The other side is that Birch is headed to either Missouri or New Mexico State. While we would be more interested in the first report (for the posts we could write about it), we have a hard time believing that Dixon would be that ready to take back Birch after his decision to leave the school although technically it could be viewed as a freshman going home for winter break if it weren’t for all the games that Pittsburgh will be playing while still on “winter break”. The latter report seems more realistic and also offers the tantalizing possibility of a “Redemption Team” with Frank Haith coaching Birch and Jabari Brown if Birch were to head Missouri.
4. Yesterday brought us the latest versions of power rankings from Luke Winn and Mark Titus. As you are well aware, the two approach these rankings very differently: Winn does so by providing you with a lot of quantitative analysis in a manner that is approachable for the casual fan while Titus does it with a mix of personal anecdotes and witty commentary. This week, Winn provides his usual adroitly presented analysis (though without the shocking statistic that we have come to expect) while Titus actually plays the part of a serious basketball writer by providing some thoughtful analysis without as much of his usual humor (it is still in there, but like Winn’s it is tamed down a bit this week).
5. With the resurgence of Indiana this season there have been a lot of analysts trying to come up with a reason for the Hoosiers’ improvement. Some claim that it was just a matter of time before Tom Crean’s recruits could contend while others say that is it merely the improved health of the team. Sebastian Pruiti theorizes that it is due to their improved defense using advanced metrics and freeze-frame analysis from their games this season. While Pruiti applauds the Hoosiers’ efforts and improved defense he is quick to add that we shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves with projections for the Hoosiers this season.

RTC Live heads into the holiday weekend with an interesting crosstown rivalry game involving one of the top 10 teams in America. Join us this evening from the Bradley Center, after the jump.

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RTC Live heads into the holiday weekend with an interesting intersectional game involving a Big East team and a team that wishes it was in the Big East. Join us this evening from the Verizon Center in downtown DC, after the jump.

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