And so it begins. Today at exactly 12:15 PM in Auburn Hills, Michigan, the 2013 NCAA Tournament as we all know it will officially tip off, setting in motion a chain of events that will undoubtedly bust most people’s brackets by mid-afternoon. Nevertheless, the anticipation for the best two weekdays in all of sports is over. Let’s get things started with an analysis of all of today’s games, beginning with the afternoon slate of eight contests.

#3 Michigan State vs. #14 Valparaiso – Midwest Region Second Round (at Auburn Hills, MI) – 12:15 PM ET on CBS

Adreian Payne And Sparty Look To Turn Away Valparaiso’s Upset Bid Thursday

The Second Round of the 2013 NCAA Tournament tips off in Auburn Hills on Thursday, where Michigan State clashes with former March magician Bryce Drew and his Valparaiso Crusaders. Having been underseeded slightly by the committee, the Horizon League Champs now rest as a dangerous #14 seed. They are led by Ryan Broekhoff, a 6’7” senior and two-time Horizon League POY. The Aussie import does the bulk of his damage from three-point range, having made 82 threes this season. He will undoubtedly be the focus of the Spartan defense, a unit that has proven stingy as ever this season. Tom Izzo’s team ranks 8^th nationally in defensive efficiency, in large part because of their defense of the three-point stripe, where opponents have shot just 30.8%. The physical, tough Spartan identity is not limited to the defensive end however, as Michigan State has played efficient (albeit slow) offense all season, despite a relative dearth of play-makers (apologies to the oft-dynamic backcourt of Keith Appling and Gary Harris). We can analyze this matchup all we want, but the final calculation is very simple. Despite Valparaiso being a tricky #14 seed, this is Michigan State, Tom Izzo and March. The home court advantage Sparty will enjoy in Auburn Hills is almost overkill – I like Michigan State to take care of business here.

The RTC Certified Pick: Michigan State

#6 Butler vs. #11 Bucknell — East Region Second Round (at Lexington, KY) — 12:40 pm ET on truTV.

One of Thursday’s better games pits two teams that have combined to win 54 games against one another. The key to Butler’s resurgence this season has been the addition of Rotnei Clarke. The 6’0” transfer from Arkansas has opened up Butler’s offense and made it easier for the other Bulldogs to operate. In this game, Brad Stevens and company face a particularly difficult matchup for an 11-seed. The Bucknell Bison have one of the best centers in the nation (Mike Muscala) and are a senior laden team that maximizes possessions and won’t be afraid to bang with Butler. In addition Muscala, a 6’11” senior and perhaps the best rebounder in the country, Dave Paulsen’s team defends with the best of them and has a pair of very capable three point shooters in Bryson Johnson and Cameron Ayers. The key for Bucknell will be to contain Clarke and keep him from dominating the game. For Butler, getting on the glass and limiting Bucknell’s top scorers will be critical. Bucknell has very little scoring depth with four players averaging about 53 of its 67 PPG. It’s probably not too smart picking against Stevens but we like the match-up for Bucknell in this one.

The RTC Certified Pick: Bucknell

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The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

Midwest Region

• Louisville and Kentucky are bitter in-state rivals, but the Cardinals do not take a special joy in playing on their rival’s home court in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament.
• Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy had a few interesting things to say in his press conference the day before his team is set to take on Missouri. He said this year has been the most difficult first year he has had at any program due to the high expectations for the team. He also added that before this season, he always thought the Mountain West was overrated.
• Missouri has been a bit of an enigma all season, but the Tigers are still a very talented team. When it comes to scouting Frank Haith‘s squad, it all starts with taking a look at point guard Phil Pressey.
• Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford was hoping for his team to be placed in the San Jose pod and he got his wish on Selection Sunday. The 1,648 miles between Stillwater and San Jose was the farthest first round option for the Cowboys, but lengthy travel is nothing new to this season’s squad.
• Oregon is going to have one of the nation’s top recruits in the stands for its game against Oklahoma State in San Jose on Thursday. Aaron Gordon, a 6’8″ forward from San Jose, will be at the game – UO is in the final four for his services – along with Kentucky, Arizona, and Washington. Interesting fact about Gordon is that he was an AAU teammate of Ducks freshman point guard Dominic Artis.
• Saint Louis has drawn great acclaim all season for its ability to play as a team. The team concept has been led by senior point guard Kwamain Mitchell, who wants to keep playing his final season in a Saint Louis uniform.
• Memphis coach Josh Pastner was not too pleased when a reporter suggested Wednesday that the Tigers were not battle-tested. In response, Pastner exclaimed, “To say we are not battle-tested is ridiculous. Do you recognize that every single time we step on the floor that we get everyone’s best shot. We’ve won 26 straight Conference USA games.”
• Michigan State coach Tom Izzo is mostly excited to be playing in Auburn Hills on Thursday, but he does acknowledge that there are potential negatives that go with playing that close to home. Izzo knows that he must manage the possible distractions and keep his team focused.
• Valparaiso forward Kevin Van Wijk was ready to give up basketball after one season as a Crusader due to a surgically-repaired back that just was not getting any better. This all changed due to a relationship he forged with Frank Eksten of the Sports Medicine Institute in Crown Point, Indiana. Van Wijk’s back has improved dramatically and he is now Valparaiso’s second leading-scorer.
• Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is looking for seniors Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly, and Mason Plumlee to step up their leadership in the NCAA Tournament.

West Region

• Gonzaga has not made it to an Elite Eight since 1999, but the Bulldogs have not suffered shocking first-round upsets like other high-profile programs. Does this mean Gonzaga’s label as an underachiever in the NCAA Tournament is unfair?
• Wichita State forward Carl Hall has a well-known reputation of being the Shocker with the dreadlocks. Well, that reputation is no longer factual as Hall cut his hair Monday for the first time in five years.
• Wisconsin forward Ryan Evans has been a lot more comfortable at the foul line ever since he adopted the jump-shooting technique. This change has allowed Evans to have more confidence at the line, which has resulted in more willingness to get to the rim and draw fouls.
• Ole Miss has not appeared in the NCAA Tournament since 2002, but the Rebels are not entering this season’s event with concerns about their lack of experience.
• Kansas State was struggling to adjust to the new offense of first-year coach Bruce Weber in the early season, but the Wildcats have since become very well accustomed to the system and their offense has thrived.
• Arizona guard Jordin Mayes had struggled with confidence issues with his shot for must much of his junior season, but he has broken out of his slump in March and looks primed to make an impact for the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament.
• Belmont guard Ian Clark led the nation this season with a 46.3 percent mark from deep and this has definitely caught the attention of Arizona, the Bruins’ Round of 64 opponent.
• New Mexico coach Steve Alford agreed to a new 10-year deal Wednesday that will keep the coach in charge of the Lobos basketball team through the 2022-23 season.
• Notre Dame coach Mike Brey has had his fair share of struggles in the NCAA Tournament. For this season’s event, he is aiming to maintain the attitude of keeping his team loose in hopes that it will allow the Irish to put the past missteps behind them.
• Is this season Ohio State coach Thad Matta‘s best coaching job in Columbus? Consider this: Matta took a team with no big man presence and no defined second scoring option, and took it to a Big Ten Tournament title.

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I. Renko is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report from Dayton after Wednesday’s play-in game between La Salle and Boise State. Follow him on Twitter @IRenkoHoops.

Three Key Takeaways:

Boise and La Salle Finished Off the First Four

1. La Salle Executed Its Offense to Perfection — The Explorers feature a four-guard attack that runs something of a dribble-drive offense. They try to space the floor, drive, kick, and reverse the ball until they get a good shot, either off the dribble in the lane or from behind the three-point arc, where they shoot a healthy 37.1 percent. Tonight they executed this approach perfectly, scoring repeatedly on dribble-drives or threes off of kick outs and ball reversals. They shot 62 percent from the field and 51 percent from the three-point line. It was a highly impressive offensive performance that likely had Kansas State head coach Bruce Weber squirming in his seat.
2. Drmic Didn’t Get Any Help — For much of the game, Boise State’s Anthony Drmic was almost single-handedly carrying the offense. The sophomore swingman finished with 28 points on 9-of-17 shooting (5-of-10 from three-point range). Derrick Marks, who averages 16.3 points per game, had just two points through the first 30 minutes of action. Marks heated up late, but by then, the Broncos were in a double-digit hole that was too steep to climb out of.
3. La Salle Knows How to Take Care of the Ball — At various points, in an effort to slow down La Salle’s explosive offense, Boise State started applying some ball pressure, picking up three-quarter court and aggressively guarding the perimeter. It made little difference. La Salle’s experienced backcourt takes excellent care of the ball. Their turnover rate on the year is a low 17.3 percent, and they committed just 10 miscues tonight. Remember, this is a team that beat VCU and its vaunted Havoc defense on the road by eight points. They’re not easily rattled.

Star of the Game:  Junior guard Tyrone Garland may be one of the most underappreciated sixth men in the country. The Virginia Tech transfer is a whirling dervish who is a key cog in La Salle’s dribble drive attack. He never hesitates to show you what he can do off the bounce, dazzling on half-court drives and full-court breaks. He finished tonight with a team-high 22 points on an outstanding 9-of-11 field goal shooting. He added three assists and though he typically struggles with his outside shot (26.6 percent three-point shooter), he hit half of his three-point attempts tonight (2-of-4).

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I. Renko is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report from Dayton after Wednesday’s play-in game between Long Island and James Madison. Follow him on Twitter @IRenkoHoops.

Three Key Takeaways:

LIU Was Never Able to Get Its Offense Going Tonight (credit: G. Shamus/Getty)

1. JMU Won the Tempo Battle — Long Island likes to play at a breakneck pace, ranking in the top 30 in the country in tempo and routinely scoring in the 80s or 90s. At yesterday’s pregame press conference, James Madison coach Matt Brady emphasized the importance of slowing the game, and the Dukes largely succeeded. LIU scored just 55 points, its lowest total of the season, and the game ended with about 60 possessions per team, also quite low by LIU’s standards. And though the Blackbirds managed to get out on the break here and there, JMU was almost as effective in transition, particularly during a critical 9-0 second half run when they erased LIU’s only lead of the game with four straight transition buckets.
2. No Rayshawn, No Matter — JMU’s leading scorer, forward Rayshawn Goins, was suspended for the first half tonight, the fallout of a Sunday evening arrest that put a damper on the Dukes’ otherwise exciting Selection Sunday. The odd half-game suspension and the effect on the team was a major pre-game storyline, but proved to be largely irrelevant. JMU more than compensated for Goins’ absence in the first half with its stellar shooting, and in the second half, Goins’ contributions were marginal. Though he pulled down eight rebounds, he struggled to score and looked out of sync on offense for much of the half. He finished with just four points.
3. LIU Couldn’t Find the Right Defensive Formula — Though Long Island scores a lot of points, they also give up a lot of points. They don’t stop shots, they don’t force turnovers, and they don’t rebound well. And tonight, they just couldn’t find the right defensive formula. They alternated between man and zone defenses in the first half, but no matter what they tried, the Dukes were able to crack it with their great shooting, hitting several jump shots and knocking down 40 percent of their threes en route to a 32-31 halftime lead. In the second half, the Blackbirds relied primarily on a zone, and while the Dukes’ outside shooting cooled a bit, they held their lead by dominating the glass, rebounding 55.5 percent of their own misses. At the end of the day, it’s tough to win an NCAA Tournament game with a defense ranked outside the top 300.

Star of the Game:  After averaging 15.9 points per game last year, JMU senior guard A.J. Davis struggled to find consistency for much of this season. He scored in double figures in just nine of his first 25 games, but since then, he’s hit double digits nine straight times. His offensive resurgence continued tonight, as he led the Dukes with 20 points on 7-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-10 from three-point range. Davis also stuffed the stat sheet with five rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block.

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Unless you’re a major procrastinator, you probably already have a pretty strong idea of who your Final Four choices will be this year. Maybe you’ve already completed your bracket and put it to bed. Or maybe you’re one of those people who likes to have all available and possible information at your fingertips before making your final decisions. For those of you that fall into the latter camp, this post is for you. We’ve aggregated all of the RTC NCAA Tournament prep materials in one place for your ease of use. We can’t guarantee that you’ll go 63-0 on your selections as a result, but we can assure you that the answers are in there if you look hard enough. Enjoy, and Happy Madness, everyone.

Play RTC Bracket Nonsense. This year’s version of RTC Bracket Nonsense is the best we’ve ever had, because it includes great prizes from Retro College Cuts as well as authentic autographed memorabilia celebrating Atlanta as the site of this year’s Final Four. You can win prizes after each of the three weekends, so don’t forget to sign up by Noon ET Thursday.

Lots of Great Prizes Available This Year – PLAY TO WIN!

The Official RTC Bracket.

• South and East Regions
• West and Midwest Regions

The RTC Podblasts. Our team of NCAA Tournament correspondents joined the RTC Podcast guys this week to break down each of the four regions separately. You can find them all in this single post — give a listen.

Bracket Prep Region Analyses. We dare you to find more thorough breakdowns of each of the four regions. From discussions of potential Cinderellas for both the Sweet Sixteen and the Final Four to the most enticing match-ups for both purists and the mainstream media, it’s all there.

• East Region
• South Region
• Midwest Region
• West Region

Vegas Odds (Along With KenPom & HSAC). Which teams do the bookmakers in Las Vegas favor heading into this year’s NCAA Tournament? How does that compare with some of the better mathematical models out there? Keep these in mind when finalizing your brackets this year.

Bracket Prep: All 31 Automatic Qualifiers. One of the most difficult things to do is to discern which of the mid-majors are poised to pull of an opening game upset. Bracket Prep digs into each of the auto-qualifiers with its Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom, discussing the kinds of match-ups that are both good and bad for each team. Give it a look before finalizing those choices.

Bracket-Busting the Other 26. The power conference schools get plenty of attention. What about the schools from the Other 26 D-I leagues? In these posts, we break down the ceilings for each of those O26 teams, from #1 seed Gonzaga all the way down to the #16s destined for a very short stay.

• South and West Regions
• East and Midwest Regions

NCAA Tournament Tidbits. A ridiculous number of links about all of the teams gearing up for their opening games this week.

• Tuesday Edition
• Wednesday Edition

A Non-Sports Womans’ Guide to March Madness. When in doubt, pick colors and uniforms. The RTC Babe breaks down her picks for the Final Four.

We released the Official RTC Bracket for the South and East Regions earlier today — be sure to check that out if you need a refresher on our methodology for this exercise — and we’ll save you the fluff this time and cut right to the chase with the Midwest and West Regions. (note: our Final Four selections are after the analyses)

Quick Hitters From the Midwest Region

• Advancing to Atlanta: #1 Louisville
• Round of 64 Upset: #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis
• Later Round Upset: N/A
• Three Most Disputed Games: #5 Oklahoma State over #12 Oregon, #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis, #2 Duke over #3 Michigan State

Four Questions About the Midwest Region

Louisville is the odds-on favorite to not just advance out of the Midwest Region, but win the National Championship. Which team has the best chance at dashing Louisville’s title hopes?

Does Pitino Have Another One of These In His Immediate Future? (Getty Images)

Andrew Murawa: After giving the Cards the nod as the overall #1 seed, the selection committee certainly didn’t do them any more favors, dropping them in, what is to me, the toughest region in the bracket. Once they get out of the Round of 64 in this region, Rick Pitino’s club could be facing nothing but dangerous clubs, from the nation’s best rebounding team in Colorado State, to one of the nation’s hottest teams in Saint Louis, to possibly Michigan State or Duke in the Elite Eight. All of those teams can beat the Cards. But the team with the best chance is certainly the Blue Devils, a squad that has already beaten them this season, albeit without Gorgui Dieng.

The #8 vs. #9 game is usually a coin-flip type of game, but it is a 100% consensus that Colorado State beats Missouri. Are the Rams that much better than Missouri?

Zach Hayes: The Rams are by no means world-beaters, but the consensus opinion probably stems from their ability to compete where Missouri excels: on the boards. Colorado State ranks in the nation’s top two in both offensive and defensive rebounding, a glass-crashing tenacity which should work to negate the rebounding prowess of both Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers. The confidence also resides in how shaky Missouri has been at the tail end of close games despite featuring an elite point guard in Phil Pressey. Most bracket prognosticators would rather go to war with a Rams team starting five seniors over Missouri’s constant unpredictability away from home, where their only scalps came against the dregs of the SEC.

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Jeff Capel had it working in Norman. Building off the success of his predecessor Kelvin Sampson, Capel took the Sooners to consecutive  NCAA Tournament appearances in 2007 and 2008. Heading into practice, the 2008-09 season had all the makings of a season to remember. The Sooners boasted the future #1 pick of next year’s NBA Draft coupled with Willie Warren, a McDonald’s All-American from Dallas, not to mention the return of veteran contributors Taylor Griffin and Tony Crocker. They won 30 games that year before eventually losing in the Elite Eight to eventual national champion North Carolina.

Since 2009? Nothing.

For the first time since this guy suited up, the Sooners are dancing. (Joe Murphy/Getty Images)

But it was only a matter of time before a program like Oklahoma would rise again. Lon Kruger, known as a fixer of ailing programs, has the Sooners dancing in just his second season in Norman. As the Sooners hovered around the middle of the Big 12 this year, they were searching for a leader and found it in senior Romero Osby, He’s playing the best basketball of his career, and I believe that had he not made the step from role player to lead, the Sooners may have been on the outside looking in with this Tournament. After struggling to start the year, another senior, Stephen Pledger, has turned it on as well. Oklahoma finds itself as the #10 seed in the South Region paired with #7 seed San Diego State. As a result, OU can conceivably win its first foray back into the Madness since those Griffin brothers were still wearing red uniforms together.

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In last night’s opening round games, North Carolina A&T and St. Mary’s both advanced to the Round of 64, and two more games tonight will round out the field. Once again, tonight’s games will get under way at 6:40 PM tonight on truTV — here’s our analysis of tonight’s two games.

#16 LIU Brooklyn vs. #16 James Madison — East Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 6:40 PM ET on truTV.

LIU Brooklyn Will Depend on Its Transition Attack

Night two of the First Four begins with a game that will feature two vastly different style of basketball. LIU Brooklyn loves to play fast but unlike most up-tempo teams, the Blackbirds do not force many turnovers to fuel a transition attack. LIU shoots the ball very well, led by senior forward Jamal Olasewere and junior point guard Jason Brickman (a 46% three-point shooter). Olasewere operates primarily inside the arc but also isn’t afraid to step out and take an occasional triple. Brickman is a terrific assist man, averaging over eight dimes per game. He’s ranked #16 in assist rate nationally but is vulnerable to coughing it up as well, averaging four turnovers a night. Still, his 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic. James Madison has to focus on these players defensively along with C.J. Garner, who averages 16 PPG for a team that scores nearly 80 PPG on average. LIU’s offensive statistics are impressive but Jack Perri’s team doesn’t take defense, ahem, very seriously. The problem for James Madison is that it doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well to begin with, so it will have to slow the game down (easier than speeding it up) and limit LIU’s possessions. JMU is led by strong senior forward Rayshawn Goins who, at 6’6” and 266 lbs, is certainly a force to be reckoned with. Goins against Olasewere could be the key match-up in this game. Neither team has a lot of size but Olasewere is giving up about 40 pounds to the burly Duke. In the end, we feel LIU has enough offensive firepower despite its defensive issues to advance and play Indiana on Friday.

The RTC Certified Pick: LIU Brooklyn.

#13 Boise State vs. #13 La Salle – West Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) – 9:10 PM ET on TruTV

Jeff Elorriaga Will Be Bombing Away Tonight

These two underdogs will have the attention of the nation all to themselves as they fight to be included in the bulk of the bracket. And this game is definitely one to keep an eye on, as it may be one of the more entertaining contests you’ll see on this first weekend of play. Both teams are guard-dominated, both teams shoot the three regularly and with great proficiency, and both teams will get out in transition when they have the opportunities. For La Salle, the backcourt trio of Ramon Galloway, Tyreek Duren and Tyrone Garland combine to average 44.9 points and 9.1 assists between them and shoot a collective 37.4% from deep. Meanwhile, Boise’s trio of Anthony Drmic, Derrick Marks and Jeff Elorriaga combine to average 43.9 points, 8.4 assists and a collective 41.8% clip from behind the arc. Those guys go a long way toward cancelling each other out, in which case the game may come down to the frontcourts, where the Broncos have the advantage. While the Explorers are largely ineffective in controlling the glass, Boise is the third-best team in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Forwards Ryan Watkins and Kenny Buckner are particularly good in that area but it is a full-team effort, as even the guards chip in to clean the glass. In a game where both teams have perimeter players to put the ball in the hoop, the dirty work up front may turn out to be the difference.

The RTC Certified Pick: Boise State

With the NCAA Tournament officially underway as of last night’s game between North Carolina A&T and Liberty — although, let’s be honest, things don’t really begin to heat up until Thursday afternoon — we are unveiling the Official RTC Bracket today. Up first are the South and East Regions with the Midwest and West Regions to follow later this afternoon. Prior to revealing the picks, some quick analysis, and four questions to our bracket experts, here’s our methodology.

The inspiration behind the bracket largely comes from our weekly Blogpoll where a number of ballots from key contributors are combined to form a single Top 25. Rather than have eight people put their heads together and collectively fill out the bracket, we asked each to select their own bracket. Afterward, those selections were tallied up and the team with the majority vote in each slot is the one picked to advance below. As an example, you will notice that in the #8 vs. #9 game in the South Region, North Carolina was picked to advance in seven of eight brackets — hence the 88% tally next to the Tar Heels’ name. Deeper into the bracket, you may wonder how it’s possible for Kansas to advance past Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen with just 50% of the brackets choosing the Jayhawks, but that’s because three brackets had Michigan and one bracket had VCU, thereby giving Kansas the edge.

Here’s the first half of the 2013 Official RTC Bracket:

Quick Hitters From the South Region

• Advancing to Atlanta: #3 Florida
• Round of 64 Upset: #11 Minnesota over #6 UCLA
• Later Round Upsets: #3 Florida over #2 Georgetown in the Sweet Sixteen and #3 Florida over #1 Kansas in the Elite Eight
• Three Most Disputed Games: #11 Minnesota over #6 UCLA, #4 Michigan over #5 VCU, #1 Kansas over #4 Michigan

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re approximately 24 hours ahead of the opening tip from the field of 64, and the RTC Podcast crew has spent some time putting together a short preview podblast for each of the four NCAA regions. We invited four of our correspondents to the party to help us work through the brackets — Brian Otskey (@botskey) for the East Region, Kevin Doyle (@kldoyle11) for the South Region, Bennet Hayes (@hoopstraveler) for the Midwest Region, and Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) for the West Region.  We may not nail every one of our picks, but we had a blast recording these and hope you enjoy listening to our coverage on these four ‘blasts.

East Region

South Region

Midwest Region

West Region

We’ll bring everyone back next week to look forward to the regionals. Happy March Madness!