Set Your TiVo: 11.25.11

Posted by Brian Otskey on November 25th, 2011

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Preseason tournaments continue to roll on with the NIT Season Tip-Off championship as well as semifinal action at the Old Spice and 76 Classic along with the Battle 4 Atlantis. Although we don’t know the championship matchups in those tournaments, be sure to check out the finals at Atlantis on Saturday and the Old Spice and 76 Classic on Sunday for those TBD games.

Minnesota vs. Indiana State (at Orlando, Florida) – 12:00 PM EST on ESPN (**)

Trevor Mbakwe Is a Beast Inside

  •  The Golden Gophers escaped an upset-minded DePaul team on Thursday afternoon behind another double-double from Trevor Mbakwe, his fourth in five games. Against an Indiana State team that is better than DePaul, Minnesota must assert itself inside, protect the ball and defend better. Tubby Smith’s team has a huge height advantage over the Sycamores, especially with swingman Rodney Williams standing at 6’7”. The potential is there for Williams to have a huge game given his size and athleticism. Indiana State can rotate taller players in off its bench but Minnesota has more than enough talent in the paint to play well. However, the Gophers can’t afford 17 turnovers and a 1-9 night from three point range again as they did against DePaul.
  • The major concern for Greg Lansing has to be rebounding the basketball against a team with lots of strength and size up front. Indiana State was out-rebounded and out-shot by Texas Tech but forced 18 Red Raider turnovers and got to the foul line 31 times. The Sycamores shoot 78% from the stripe and must use that to their advantage against a Minnesota team with an awful defensive free throw rate (#249). With sophomore point guard Jake Odum breaking down the defense and finding open players, that shouldn’t be a big problem given Minnesota’s propensity to foul. Indiana State shoots 37.1% from three point land as a unit with Jordan Printy taking the majority of those shots and converting 38.5% of the time. ISU must make threes because it is not going to have an easy time scoring inside against Minnesota’s size.
  • For the Sycamores to pull the upset, we feel they have to play a zone. Going to a zone is risky when your team has trouble rebounding to begin with but it may be their best bet. If Indiana State can pack its defense in the paint and limit the Gophers inside, that’ll force the Minnesota guards to jack up deep shots, something they’re not particularly good at. Playing a zone also minimizes foul trouble, a huge issue with only three major contributors over 6’8” on the Indiana State roster. It sounds simple but this game should come down to whichever team can execute its game plan better: inside scoring for Minnesota and three pointers plus solid interior defense for Indiana State.

#19 Florida State vs. Harvard (at Atlantis Paradise Island, Bahamas) – 4:30 PM EST on Versus (***)

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Set Your Tivo: Turkey Day Edition

Posted by bmulvihill on November 24th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Thanksgiving is for food, family, and football.  But around these parts, we like to throw a big heaping pile of college hoops on our plate also.  Keep an eye on these games as you sit around the table with your loved ones.  Happy Thanksgiving from RTC!

Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles Look Solid on Defense Once Again

#19 Florida State vs. Massachusetts  – 4:30PM EST on Versus (**)

  • Florida State’s defense is picking-up right where it left off last season. While the Seminoles have not played any offensive juggernauts to this point in the season, they are still holding teams to an impossibly low .86 points per possession (adjusted). Keep an eye on the perimeter defense, as FSU’s set of 6’5” guards, Michael Snaer and Delvidas Dulkys, will likely have to deal with UMass’s 5’11” point guard Chaz Williams. Williams is currently lighting things up at 17 points per game and hitting 42% of his three-point shots. Watch how the length of Snaer and Dulkys affects Williams’ shot throughout the night.
  • Not to be outdone, Massachusetts brings its own set of defensive credentials into this game, ranking in the top ten in both block rate and turnover rate. Florida State has had trouble with turning the ball over this season. Since scoring will be difficult against the Seminoles, Derek Kellogg’s team needs to figure out a way to continue to create turnovers to give his offense more opportunities to score. They have to do this without fouling, however. Teams are getting to the line frequently against UMass (50% FT rate). The Seminole offense thrives on free throws. If you see FSU in the bonus early in either half, you know things are not going well for Massachusetts.
  • This game is shaping up to be a defensive battle. The game will hinge on UMass’s ability to deal with the ‘Noles length in the front court. Williams needs to figure out a way to get his shot off on offense and defend players much larger than him. Again, if he and the rest of the Minutemen can create steals without fouling, they have a shot in this game. However, if FSU plays their usual lights out defense and continue to shoot the ball well, they will win.
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Set Your TiVo: 11.23.11

Posted by bmulvihill on November 23rd, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

If you’re sad the Maui Invitational is coming to an end today, fear not as another pre-season tourney is getting started in New York City.  The NIT Season Tip-Off gets going with some interesting power conference match-ups.  Just don’t forget to catch the late night Maui championship between two of the heaviest heavyweights in the land.  It should be a fun night of hoops on Thanksgiving Eve.

Bill Self Will Need to Figure Out a Way to Stop a Red Hot Duke Team in the Maui Invitational Championship

Oklahoma State vs. Stanford – 7 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (**)

  • Oklahoma State brings a deep squad into the game with ten players averaging double-digit minutes.  From a depth standpoint, they match-up well against a Cardinal team that also has ten players averaging double-digit minutes. Even with a deep bench, the play of one guy, freshman guard Le’Bryan Nash, may dictate how the Cowboys perform not only in this contest but throughout the season. He is going to have to pick-up his play against Stanford however as he is only shooting 33% from the field. The entire team is shooting under 50% for the season, which should be a major concern for coach Travis Ford. If his team cannot improve their shooting against Stanford, the Cowboys will be leaving Madison Square Garden with a loss.
  • Much like Oklahoma State, the Cardinal have not faced many tough defenses this season. However, they are capitalizing on the situation and making 57.5% of their two-point shots. Look for coach Johnny Dawkins to bring size off his bench to take advantage of Oklahoma State’s lack of height. The Cowboys will have to counter with 6’11” center Phillip Jurick to maintain control of the paint. If Stanford can continue its hot shooting in the paint and take advantage of the size on their bench, they can beat Oklahoma State.
  • Production from the bench will be the key factor in determining the outcome of this game. Both teams get a significant amount of support from their benches. The team with more points off the bench should win. Also, keep an eye on free throws. Both teams are shooting below 65% on the season. A few made free throws down the stretch could make a huge difference in what looks like a close contest between two mid-pack, major conference teams.

#5 Syracuse vs. Virginia Tech – 9:30PM EST on ESPN2 HD (***)

  • Syracuse looks to be running on all cylinders through four games this season. The competition has not been difficult, but they have blown out each team. Their length and athleticism has led to an impressive start on defense, as they lead the country in block shot percentage and rank seventh in turnover percentage. Virginia Tech has to be very cognizant of turnovers against the Orange because the Hokies have been prone to coughing the ball up so far this season. The long arms of Jim Boeheim’s team will create all kinds of issues for Va Tech not only on defense, but also on the offensive boards.
  • The Hokies have playing solid basketball thus far. Syracuse will be their toughest test of the season though. Seth Greenburg’s team is not a short team by any standard so it will be interesting to see how it matches up against the Syracuse length both on offense and defense. Interestingly, Virginia Tech is getting beat up on the boards. If they do not continue their hot shooting, which will be difficult against Syracuse, and cannot grab their misses, it will be long night for the kids from Blacksburg.
  • Turnovers will be a huge part of this game. Syracuse will be creating them and Virginia Tech needs to protect against them. However, the key will be how Virginia Tech’s solid half-court defense will handle Syracuse’s smart two-point shooting. If Syracuse is hitting its two-point shots early and dominating the offensive boards, they should have no problem winning.

#15 Kansas vs. #6 Duke – 10 PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

  • Duke continues to look incredibly difficult to defend. They beat Michigan in the Maui Invitational semifinals with incredible outside shooting. It is unlikely they can continue to hit over 50% of their three point shots, but until a defense proves otherwise, the Blue Devils look unstoppable from downtown. They face a solid, scrambling Kansas defense that had been defending the three point shot well until they allowed UCLA to hit 8 of 14 from deep last night. If Duke is allowed to sit outside and hit threes like that, the Jayhawks will go down fast.
  • Kansas has been relying heavily on Thomas Robinson thus far. It was good to see guards Elijah Johnson, Tyshawn Taylor, and Travis Releford pick-up some of the slack in the first half against UCLA when Robinson was not much of a factor.  Bill Self’s team must continue to spread the ball around and get offensive production from more than just Robinson if they want to beat the Blue Devils.
  • This game hinges on the Jayhawk defense and its ability to lock down on the Duke weapons. It is a tall task for any team at this point because scoring is coming from all over the court for Mike Krzyzewski’s team. Look for the Jayhawks to put a ton of pressure on the defensive perimeter to slow down the onslaught of three pointers. If they are able to do that, it will at least give them a chance. Unfortunately for Kansas, Duke has slashers like Austin Rivers and big men like the Plumlee brothers to look to if the shots are not falling from outside.

The Official RTC Star System

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2014
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

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Set Your TiVo: 11.22.11

Posted by bmulvihill on November 22nd, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The teams in Maui swap opponents to create an interesting rivalry game and a Tournament rematch, while the CBE Classic wraps-up as we head to Turkey Day.  Let’s take a look at what you should be watching in today’s action.

#13 Memphis vs Tennessee – 2 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (**)

Tennessee and Head Coach Cuonzo Martin Face In-State Rival Memphis All The Way in Maui

  • Memphis and Tennessee take a Volunteer State rivalry all the way to the islands in the loser’s bracket of the Maui Invitational. In two games this season, Memphis has been manhandled on the boards by Belmont and Michigan. This could be problematic against a Tennessee team that is proving to be scrappy and capable of grabbing rebounds and loose balls. However, much like Duke, the Tigers have better athletes and more scoring options than the Volunteers. Josh Pastner’s team will have to do a better job picking good shots though, as they shot just 33% from the field against Michigan. Look for the Memphis guards to exploit the three-point shot like Duke did against the Volunteers early in the game.
  • Tennessee went from hitting just under 50% of its three-point shots in its opening two games to missing all eight of its threes against Duke. Expect Memphis to put the same kind of pressure on the Volunteer perimeter defense with its athletic backcourt. Tennessee cannot miss easy lay-ups like it did against Duke if it expects to win this game. Michigan showed that Memphis can be exploited inside the arc and they must covert those shots.
  • The Vols are certainly still trying to find their legs under new coach Cuonzo Martin and they will be facing another very athletic team in Memphis today. The Tigers will try to keep the game up-tempo to take advantage of its superior guard play. If they are successful at wearing out the Volunteers and defending the perimeter like the Blue Devils did, it will be very difficult for Martin’s team to defeat its in-state rival.

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Set Your TiVo: Maui Edition

Posted by bmulvihill on November 21st, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

ESPN kicks off Feast Week with a trip to Hawaii for the Maui Invitational.  The field is loaded and things get started today with several recent national championship teams.  Let’s dig into the action.

Memphis vs. Michigan – 3:00 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (***) (simulcast on RTC Live)

John Beilein will Loosen Up His Tie Against Memphis to Tip Off the Maui Invitational

  • Memphis dominated an experienced Belmont team in their first and only game of the season thus far.  The Tigers shot a blistering 64.7% eFG, and they will be facing a Wolverine team that is allowing over 50% shooting from inside the arc.  Look for Josh Pastner’s team to take the ball to the hole frequently with sophomore guards Will Barton and Joe Jackson leading the way.
  • While Michigan’s field goal defense is allowing teams to shoot over 50% from inside, they are forcing teams to turn the ball over on a superb 36.8% of their possessions (first in the nation).  However, Memphis only turned the ball over nine times against a tough Belmont team that is known for creating turnovers.  Like Memphis, the Wolverines have gotten off to a hot shooting start inside the arc (60.8%).  Unfortunately nearly half of their shots are coming from three-point land and they are only hitting 28.9% of them.  Wolverine guards Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Zack Novak, and Stu Douglas are going to have to hit some threes to prevent Memphis from just packing the lane on defense.
  • This game hinges on Michigan’s ability to extend the defense and grab offensive rebounds.  Memphis allowed Belmont to grab too many of its offensive rebounding opportunities.  If the Wolverines can pull the Tiger defense out with a few made three-point shots and open up the lane, look for Michigan to cash in on the offensive glass.  If John Beilein’s team continues to miss from outside, though, it will be difficult to pull the Memphis defense away from the lane, which will allow the more athletic Tigers to own the inside.

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Set Your TiVo: 11.17.11

Posted by bmulvihill on November 17th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Now that you have fully recovered from ESPN’s 24 Hours of Hoops Marathon, it’s time to jump into the first of the exotic preseason tournaments.  The Puerto Rico Tip-Off gets going today, along with the big boys’ rounds of the 2K Sports Classic benefiting Coaches vs. Cancer.  Let’s take a look at the action.

Maryland vs. #16 Alabama – 5:00 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (**)

JaMychal Green and Anthony Grant Lead Alabama into the Puerto Rico Tip-Off

  • Rarely do you see a team hit zero three-point shots and still win a game.  However, that is exactly what Maryland did in its first game of the season against UNC-Wilmington.  The Terps finished 0-9 from downtown, but managed to drain 58% of its twos.  Mark Turgeon’s squad is going to have a tough time hitting such a high percentage of shots inside the arc against Alabama’s vaunted defense.  While Terp forwards James Padgett and Ashton Pankey both scored in double figures in the opener, neither consistently demands enough attention to take scoring pressure off the guards.  Sophomore guard Terrell Stoglin needs to have another big game in order for the Terrapins to have a chance.  If the Alabama defense can lock him up, there is not enough fire power elsewhere on Turgeon’s team to beat the Crimson Tide.
  • Alabama is all about defense.  They picked up right where they left off last year giving up only 0.8 points per possession through their first two games of the season.  However, senior forward JaMychal Green should not be overlooked as a big time offensive threat.  Green is averaging 18 points per game in only 25 minutes of action per night.  Coach Anthony Grant’s team needs to improve its shooting, though.  Alabama shot under 50% eFG in 20 of it’s 37 games last season and that trend is continuing again this season.  While they finished a remarkable 10-10 in those games because of a stellar defense, it’s very difficult for a team to have major success shooting under 50% eFG.  If the Tide is hitting more than half of its shots against Maryland, the game will not be close.
  • This game hinges on Maryland’s ability to create baskets in transition.  Maryland plays at a much faster pace than Alabama.  If they get locked down in a halfcourt match-up with the Crimson Tide defense, the Terps’ offense will bog down because they do not have enough weapons in the low post.  The team that dictates the pace and style of this game will ultimately win.

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Set Your TiVo: 11.16.11

Posted by bmulvihill on November 16th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

After a twenty-four hour marathon of hoops yesterday, we settle things down a bit and get into the groove of regular season college basketball.  Let’s check out a few games for you to watch tonight.

Indiana @ Evansville – 8 PM EST on ESPN3 (***)

Cody Zeller Leads Indiana Against Evansville

  • Picking up right where it left off last year, Evansville continues to win games at the free throw line.  Junior guard Colt Ryan scored 14 of his game high 23 points from the line in the Purple Aces’ overtime win against Butler last Saturday.  Ryan was not the only scorer for Marty Simmons’ team, as four other players scored in double figures.  With 40% of the team’s points coming from the line, Evansville relies on free throws to fuel their offense like few other teams.  Since Evansville does not look like it will be a one-man show, Indiana will have to be cognizant of fouls across the board so as to not find itself in the double bonus early in each half.
  • At 6’11”, Indiana freshman Cody Zeller gives the Hoosiers an athletic big man to go along with guards Vardell Jones, III, and Victor Oladipo.  IU has a significant advantage down low since no Evansville player is taller than 6’8”.  Indiana’s two-point shooting has been on target for the first two games, hitting 64.3% of its shots from inside the arc. Look for Zeller and the Hoosier guards to score from the paint regularly against a soft Evansville interior defense.
  • This game, like most Evanville games, hinges on the Purple Aces’ ability to attack the basket and get to the free throw line.  If they are not getting to the line they will assuredly lose.  They do not have the size to guard Zeller or create second-chance points for themselves on missed shots.  Simmons’ team faced similar circumstances against Butler, though, but pulled off the win thanks to a hefty 32 points from the line.  If Indiana can continue to defend the two well without fouling, they should have no problem leaving Evansville’s new building with a 3-0 record.

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Set Your TiVo: Marathon of Hoops Edition

Posted by bmulvihill on November 15th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Twenty-four straight hours of college hoops is the dream scenario for those of us who are diehard fans of the sport.  Fortunately, it’s not a dream as ESPN brings back its Tip-Off Marathon for the fourth consecutive season.  Games got started at 12:01 AM EST this morning and go all the way till approximately 1:00 AM EST later tonight.  If you can’t sit in front of your TV for all twenty-four plus hours, then make sure you at least watch these four games.

Belmont @ #14 Memphis – 12:00 PM EST on ESPN HD (***)

Expectations are high for Memphis and Josh Pastner

  • Memphis brings high expectations into the 2011-12 season (Coaches Poll #9).  They return all five starters from last year’s team, several key reserves, and add McDonald’s All-American Adonis ThomasJosh Pastner has put together an incredible amount of talent that is going to get a stiff test in its first game of the season against an experienced Belmont team.  The Tigers need to greatly improve their turnover percentage (21.9% in 2010-11), three point shooting (32.9% in 2010-11), and defensive rebounding percentage (34.3% in 2010-11) in order to live up to those lofty expectations this season.  Pastner’s squad showed promise on the defensive end last year ranking 23rd and 25th in block percentage and steal percentage, respectively.  They need to maintain that defensive toughness while still trying to improve on the offensive end.
  • Belmont gave Duke all it could handle last Friday night in the opener at Cameron Indoor Stadium, losing 77-76.  Turnovers (17), missed threes (6-19), and the Blue Devils’ Mason Plumlee’s great work on the defensive glass (10 defensive rebounds) proved to be the difference.  Still, the Bruins showed excellent offensive balance in the loss with five players scoring in double figures.  Although the FedEx Forum is another difficult place to play, it’s a bit closer to home for Rick Byrd’s team and they have already experienced the ruckus of the Cameron Crazies.  Belmont needs to get off to a better start from the three-point line and limit turnovers to have a chance in this one.
  • This game will hinge on turnovers and second-chance points.  Belmont forced Duke to turn the ball over 19 times in the first game and ranked second in the nation last season in defensive turnover percentage.  As previously mentioned, Memphis turns the ball over a lot.  Memphis guard Joe Jackson in particular turned the ball over on 29.1% of his possessions last season.  Look for the Bruins to put all kinds of pressure on a still-young Tigers team to create easy baskets.  At the same time, Belmont relies heavily on second chance points.  The addition of the 6’7” Thomas to the Memphis lineup should certainly improve their defensive rebounding percentage.  If Thomas and the rest of the team can hit the glass hard in his first game, it will limit Belmont’s chances to pull an upset on the road.

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Set Your TiVo: 11.14.11

Posted by Brian Otskey on November 14th, 2011

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Two games from the ESPN marathon highlight tonight’s slate but don’t sleep on a potential upset special in South Bend and a power conference battle in LA.

Detroit @ Notre Dame – 9:00 PM EST on ESPNU (***) (cross-posted on RTC Live)

Eric Atkins Looked Great in ND's First Game This Year

  • Point guard Eric Atkins carried the Fighting Irish to victory in their first game this season, one of four (including tonight) without senior forward Tim Abromaitis, currently sitting out due to a suspension. The sophomore Atkins poured in 27 points on 6-7 FG (along with six assists) in a win over Mississippi Valley State on Saturday. Against star Detroit point guard Ray McCallum, Atkins will have to protect the ball and run the offense effectively against a hungry Titans squad looking to upset a Big East squad on its home floor. As a result, Atkins’ scoring opportunities may be reduced. Without Abromaitis, Notre Dame is very thin and must turn to Scott Martin for a big offensive output.  If Martin or Atkins is held in check, the Irish could be looking at their first loss in only their second game of the season.
  • Detroit’s offense is loaded with scoring threats from McCallum to Chase Simon and Nick Minnerath, among others. While McCallum deservedly gets most of the press, Minnerath and his front court teammate, LaMarcus Lowe, could be the difference in this game. Notre Dame has a collection of 6’5” and 6’6” type guys on its roster with only Jack Cooley and Mike Broghammer providing any kind of bulk in the paint. The Titans have a chance to really take advantage of the mismatch in the lane and offset any advantages Notre Dame may have elsewhere. Detroit and Notre Dame play at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of pace. Expect the Titans to push the pace all night, attacking Atkins defensively in search of turnovers and easy basket opportunities in the open floor. With McCallum’s play-making ability and Atkins coming off a four turnover game, this matchup sets up well for Detroit.
  • Will Mike Brey counter with the burn offense? It’s possible but Brey trusted Ben Hansbrough to run that for all 40 minutes last season. He’s no longer around so we doubt Brey will use it all game with a sophomore point guard. You may see it at times, especially if Detroit picks up a lot of easy buckets early, but the Irish just need to execute their normal half court offense and avoid turnovers. Pace, rebounding and defense will be what to watch for in this game. Cooley had ten rebounds last time out and a repeat performance may be needed for the Irish to avoid a loss. Neither team has a reputation for defending well so this could be a high scoring game. With Abromaitis out, Detroit may actually have more weapons to turn to offensively. The Titans have a terrific chance to win this game on the road.

Nebraska @ USC – 10:30 PM EST on Prime Ticket (**)

  • USC returns only one starter from last year’s team, Maurice Jones. At 5’7”, Jones has trouble getting his shot off and it showed against Cal State Northridge on Friday, going 0-7 (a major part of USC’s 0-15) from deep. It won’t get easier against Doc Sadler’s defense. USC is going to have to score points inside to win this game. Dewayne Dedmon and Aaron Fuller can do that but the Cornhuskers ranked #6 in two point defense last season. Kevin O’Neill also has to find some way for his team to rebound since Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stepheson are no longer in LA. Nebraska outrebounded South Dakota 42-24 in its Friday victory.
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Set Your TiVo: 11.11.11

Posted by Brian Otskey on November 11th, 2011

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We had a few games earlier in the week to whet our appetite but the main course of college basketball is served tonight. One hundred thirty-one games tip off this evening in what is really the true opening night of the season. Of course, the night is highlighted by the Carrier Classic in San Diego. Let’s get to it.

#1 North Carolina vs. Michigan State (at San Diego, CA) – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN (****)

Izzo and Williams Are All Smiles Heading Into the Inaugural Carrier Classic

  • The preseason #1 Tar Heels feature arguably the best front court in the nation with Tyler Zeller, John Henson and freshman James McAdoo. The length of the UNC front line, especially Henson, will make it incredibly difficult for Michigan State to score the basketball in the paint but the Tar Heels should also use their height as an advantage offensively. Michigan State will likely try to make this a half court game in order to limit Carolina’s transition attack. North Carolina did not shoot the ball particularly well last season so maximizing their chances inside could be advantageous if the Spartans successfully turn this into a slower-paced contest. Everyone knows Roy Williams likes to run (we’ll certainly see that) but UNC has the potential to thrive in the half court game with a good floor general in Kendall Marshall and an uber-talented front line that can score, rebound and block shots. They’re a tough matchup for anyone but especially a Michigan State team with an inexperienced and thin big man rotation.
  • For Tom Izzo and Michigan State, Draymond Green may have to do it all. He’s a stat sheet stuffer extraordinaire but we expect Green to have a difficult time getting in the paint against the tall and patient Carolina defense. Green was only a 42.6% shooter from the floor last season, down significantly from his freshman and sophomore campaigns in East Lansing. As a senior, Green has to be the coach on the floor while simultaneously taking control of the game in order for State to have a chance. Valparaiso transfer Brandon Wood bolsters Izzo’s back court and he’ll have to be counted on right away to provide a spark from three-point land. Michigan State is not going to beat North Carolina inside or in transition so you have to figure it’ll be up to Green, Wood and Keith Appling to knock down shots from long range.
  • The other aspect to this game, obviously, is the USS Carl Vinson itself. Neither team was a good jump shooting unit last year so the depth perception and sightlines of this unique venue could play a huge role. Even the elements, such as the slightest gust of wind, could be enough to alter a shot. North Carolina will run and look for easy baskets behind Marshall’s exquisite court vision and playmaking ability, a transition attack that may be fueled by Michigan State turnovers. The Spartans turned the ball over at an alarming rate last season, especially in the early months. If that continues, they don’t have a chance tonight. So many things have to go right for Michigan State to pull the upset but there are a lot of intangibles in play from the venue to the weather to the pressure of playing in such a setting and more. North Carolina should win, but regardless, this looks like a terrific way to open up the season.

Belmont @ #6 Duke – 9:00 PM EST on ESPNU (***)

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