Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated on Thursday, 5:30 ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Southern Cal, VCU, UAB.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Kentucky
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Gonzaga, Marquette
  
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Villanova, Washington, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s
• 12 Seeds: Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Belmont
  
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, UTEP, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s
  
• 16 Seeds: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes on 3/10:

• Colorado moves safely into the field with their third win of the season over Kansas State. The Buffs also have wins over Texas and Missouri. Despite a mediocre RPI and poor non-conference losses, those five wins are unmatched among fellow bubble squads. Alabama is now the first team out leading up to their rematch with Georgia tomorrow.
• Connecticut jumps up another seed line with their win over Pittsburgh. The Huskies are now 12-9 vs. Big East competition and tout an outstanding 14 wins vs. the RPI top-100. Pittsburgh’s entire body of work keeps the Panthers as the third #1 seed, but opens up the possibility of Notre Dame passing them in the coming days, a switch that would send Pitt to the Anaheim region.
• UAB’s quarterfinal loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA Tournament drops the Blazers out of the automatic bid. Their only RPI top-50 wins are against Marshall, making it extremely unlikely the Blazers will earn a spot in the field. UTEP is now the projected auto bid from CUSA.
• Avoiding upsets kept Georgia and Boston College in the field, but neither win boosted their position on the S-Curve.
• BYU once again played poorly without Brandon Davies against bottom-feeder TCU. A loss in the MWC Tournament and pushes by either Florida or North Carolina in the days ahead could drop the Cougars to a #3 seed.
• Word from Steve Lavin is that D.J. Kennedy suffered a “serious knee injury.” This may affect St. John’s seed if confirmed.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated: Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

Last Four In: Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

First Four Out: Colorado, USC, VCU, Missouri State.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Connecticut, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Illinois, Gonzaga
• 10 Seeds: Villanova, Washington, Marquette, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama, UAB
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes from 3/8:

• Marquette moved into lock status with their win over Providence on Tuesday night.
• Butler’s defeat of Milwaukee opened up another at-large spot which went to Alabama. They are now the last team in.
• Villanova moved down from a #7 seed to a #10 seed with their fifth straight loss on Tuesday. Their total body of work keeps them safely in the field of 68.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut
• 6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati
• 7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Old Dominion, Missouri
  
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Temple, Tennessee
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Utah State, Florida State, Illinois
• 10 Seeds: Gonzaga, Washington, Marquette, Richmond
• 11 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Butler, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Milwaukee, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, North Texas, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut
• 6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati
• 7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Missouri, Old Dominion
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple
• 9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, Florida State, Washington
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Gonzaga
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Milwaukee
  
• 14 Seeds: Indiana State, Bucknell, Iona, Morehead State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Kent State, Boston University, Long Island
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, Middle Tennessee, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Note:

• Connecticut and Xavier switched seeds due to the amount of Big East teams in the field.
• Michigan and Clemson switched seeds to avoid two ACC teams facing each other in the First Four round.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (last updated after Sunday’s games)

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicated automatic bids)

1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State

3 Seeds: Florida, Purdue, North Carolina, Syracuse

4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia

5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut

6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati

7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Missouri, Old Dominion

8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple

9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, Florida State, Washington

10 Seeds: Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Gonzaga

11 Seeds: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan

12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont

13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Milwaukee

14 Seeds: Indiana State, Bucknell, Iona, Morehead State

15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Kent State, Boston University, Long Island

16 Seeds: Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bracket Math (italics indicates automatic bid)

Locks: 34

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 12

Currently In The Field: Florida State, Marquette, Illinois, Georgia, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson

Last Four In: Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, Baylor, Colorado State

Next Four Out: Nebraska, Washington State, Oklahoma State, Memphis

1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke

2 Seeds: BYU, Notre Dame, Texas, Purdue

3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse

4 Seeds: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgetown, St. John’s

5 Seeds: Connecticut, Kentucky, West Virginia, Vanderbilt

6 Seeds: Arizona, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas State

7 Seeds: Cincinnati, George Mason, Texas A&M, Missouri

8 Seeds: Old Dominion, Tennessee, Temple, Washington

9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, UCLA, Florida State

10 Seeds: Marquette, Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Georgia

11 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College

12 Seeds: Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson, UAB, Missouri State

13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston

14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Bucknell, Coastal Carolina, Vermont

15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Fairfield, Kent State, Murray State

16 Seeds: Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.

The number of available bubble spots is closing by the day as more teams win bid-clinching games and move into lock status. Here’s the current situation following Wednesday night’s action (* = own league’s automatic bid)

Current Bubble Picture

Locks- 32

Non-At Large Automatic Bids- 22

Spots Remaining- 14

Currently In The Field (in order from safest to Last Four In): Florida State, Tennessee, Washington, Marquette, Illinois, Georgia, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson.

First Four Out: Alabama, Baylor, Colorado, Colorado State.

Also Considered: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, UAB*, Memphis.

Kim English, Ricardo Ratliffe and Missouri will be dancing

New Locks

Kansas State 21-9 (9-6), 21 RPI, 5 SOS– Left for dead one month ago, Kansas State has gone from NIT-bound to in the field on the first week of March. Their gutsy win in Austin over Texas paired with their Valentine’s Day blowout of Kansas clinched a bid for Jacob Pullen and Co. The Wildcats also have wins over Missouri, Gonzaga and Virginia Tech on the season, haven’t suffered a loss to a sub-100 RPI team and their power ratings keep skyrocketing by the day. With only Iowa State at home left on the slate, Kansas State is shaping up to be a single-digit seed come tournament time.

Old Dominion 24-6 (14-4), 27 RPI, 80 SOS– Everyone talks about smoking hot George Mason, but reigning CAA champion Old Dominion has quietly won 10 of 11 contests to sew up their spot in the bracket. The Monarchs played the 15^th-hardest non-conference schedule, defeated that George Mason team back on January 8 and also downed Xavier, Clemson and Richmond. ODU only has one bad loss on their schedule in the CAA opener at Delaware. That conference has a chance to push three teams into the NCAA Tournament if Hofstra, Drexel, VCU or James Madison embarks on a deep run in Richmond.

Missouri 22-8 (8-7), 31 RPI, 73 SOS– The definition of a lock is that even if said team loses all of their games left, they’d still be included in the NCAA Tournament. A beneficiary of both lack of days remaining in the schedule and the weakest bubble in memory, there’s just no chance the Tigers slip behind all of those bubble teams to the NIT even if they lose their final two contests against Kansas at home and in their first Big 12 Tournament game. Despite the possibility of finishing 22-10 (8-9), Missouri did beat Vanderbilt, Illinois and Old Dominion out-of-conference along with Kansas State and Baylor in league play. The Tigers have overcome their 1-7 mark in league games to warrant lock status.

UCLA 21-8 (12-4), 35 RPI, 50 SOS– After a one year absence, the Bruins can put on their dancing shoes once again. UCLA needed to beat Pac-10 leader Arizona in their home finale to clinch a bid and completed the task with gusto, winning by 22 points. Couple that win with crucial non-conference victories over #3 RPI BYU and #14 RPI St. John’s and the Bruins can feel safe about their tournament odds. Ben Howland’s team can really improve their seed and make their conference rivals increasingly nervous with a road win tonight at Washington.

Cincinnati 23-7 (10-7), 34 RPI, 97 SOS– If there was any lingering doubt remaining regarding Cincinnati’s tournament hopes, last night’s win at Marquette eliminated those concerns. The Bearcats rode another strong defensive effort to lock up their tenth Big East victory with Georgetown at home to close out the campaign, a game they’ll be playing for seeding purposes only. The Bearcats now have Big East road wins at Georgetown, St. John’s and Marquette to go along with home victories over Louisville and Xavier. Cincinnati is 4-7 vs. the RPI top-50 and will have opportunities in the Big East Tournament to earn a single digit seed.

Currently Automatic Bids

Utah State* 26-3 (14-1), 22 RPI, 114 SOS– Utah State’s bulk number of wins has boosted their RPI, but the resume remains mostly empty due to the weak WAC. Their lone RPI top-100 wins are at St. Mary’s and Long Beach State at home with losses to BYU and Georgetown in the non-conference. The Aggies are probably in the field if they just reach the WAC Tournament finals, but leaving it up to chance is risky. They’re the heavy favorites to win that conference tournament and I’d be stunned if they repeated last year’s result and fell again. Their #111 non-conference SOS is actually an improvement from past campaigns.

Saint Mary’s* 21-7 (11-3), 49 RPI, 124 SOS– The Gaels just needed to split two crucial home dates with Utah State and Gonzaga. Instead, they blew both games and the prospect of being left out of the field of 68 just became a lot more real if another loss is ahead in the WCC Tournament. Reach the conference tournament final and the Gaels are likely in good shape, but the resume is barren. Their marquee win over St. John’s came way back in the season’s first two weeks and they lost key non-conference games to San Diego State, BYU and Vanderbilt. Will two wins over Gonzaga and that November win over the Johnnies be enough to overcome a lackluster RPI and overall resume? Randy Bennett should just play it safe and secure that auto bid.

Currently In The Field

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Some bad news for those of you expecting the bubble to shrink in the next two weeks: the number of potential bid stealers is smaller than I can ever remember. The most likely candidates in previous years were out of Memphis-dominated Conference USA, Butler-dominated Horizon or WCC-dominated Gonzaga, but this season none of those three perennial powerhouses are locks for the dance, rendering each conference a one (or two in the WCC with Saint Mary’s) league. In fact, all three likely need to win their respective tournaments to feel safe on Selection Sunday. The Missouri Valley is also shaping up as a one-bid league for the fifth straight year and BYU, San Diego State and UNLV (playing the tournament at their home floor in Vegas) are so far ahead their Mountain West competition it’s highly unlikely any major upsets come to fruition. The same theory applies to Utah State in the WAC. One team that I do feel could snag a bid from a mediocre bubble team is Southern California out of the Pac-10 in a replay of 2009 when the #6 seed Trojans at 9-9 in the league rode DeMar DeRozan, Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson to a surprising automatic berth. With 12 losses overall on the season – including black marks against Rider, Bradley and TCU from early in the campaign– Kevin O’Neill’s squad clearly needs to complete a sweep of the conference tournament to go dancing. Depth and consistent scoring has been a recurring issue all season, but the talent is in place with a frontcourt duo of Nikola Vucevic (17.5 PPG, 10.3 RPG) and Alex Stephenson and the growing comfort level of point guard transfer Jio Fontan, who tied a season-high with 21 points in Thursday’s upset win over Arizona. USC also has the highest defensive efficiency in the Pac-10 and limited Arizona star Derrick Williams to just eight points. Watch out for the Trojans in two weekends as a sneaky candidate to turn the Pac-10 a four-bid league.

Nikola Vucevic and USC is a possible bid stealer in two weeks

A tip of the cap is in order for Frank Martin and his Kansas State Wildcats. Most skewered the hard-nosed coach for losing control of his program during K-State’s numerous low points –from the loss in Kansas City to UNLV sans Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly to the embarrassing blowout at rival Kansas with Gameday in the house to once-heralded recruit Wally Judge leaving the team – but it’s my opinion that Martin’s demanding style may have actually kept this team afloat while coaches that run their program with a softer hand may have had a total implosion on their hands. The combination of Martin’s constant yearning for focus, effort and execution out of his players and a senior in Pullen who flat-out refused to let his team hit rock bottom has led to a resurgence that would have been unfathomable three weeks ago. If you told me in early February that Kansas State, amidst all their turmoil and turnover, would win in Austin against what appeared to be a powerhouse Texas squad, I’d never have believed you. The Wildcats now shape up extremely well not only to make the NCAA Tournament – stellar RPI/SOS, wins over Kansas, Texas and Missouri and an ascent up the Big 12 standings – but also to make a Sweet 16-type run behind Pullen, the improving play of Curtis Kelly and the underrated contributions of Rodney McGruder.

BYU doesn’t exactly have the most glowing NCAA Tournament history. In fact, their first round victory over Florida last year was BYU’s first tournament win since 1993. The same reprieve is often played out under the bright lights of March: the softer, finesse, untested Cougars face a tough, physical, athletic opponent from a power six league and go into the fetal position. My admiration for Fredette was the singular reason I chose BYU as my second round upset pick last year to beat K-State. After an opening 10-0 run, BYU was thoroughly dismantled by the springy Wildcats and Jacob Pullen outplayed his counterpart Fredette. This trend was precisely why I believed San Diego State would take care of business last Saturday. Sure, the Cougars took care of business in a building they rarely ever lose in late January, but the Aztecs are that nightmarish matchup – a team full of bouncy, athletic, board-banging skilled players like Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas – that give the Cougars fits historically. Then BYU came out and blocked seven shots. They were barely out-rebounded. Thomas scored nine points and Leonard was limited to six field goals. Along with Fredette’s wizardry and the jump shooting ability of his teammates, I was doubly impressed by BYU’s attitude and toughness in such a raucous environment against an opponent I perceived as a matchup problem. Their zone defense was fantastic and their offensive execution – both in the halfcourt when Fredette was constantly doubled off of ball screens and in transition opportunities – was picture perfect. I’m a buyer.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama.
• First Four Out: Richmond, Baylor, Penn State, Colorado State.
• Next Four Out: Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicated auto bid):

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas.
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, Notre Dame, Purdue.
• 3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse.
• 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, St. John’s, North Carolina, Connecticut.
• 5 Seeds: Georgetown, Villanova, Vanderbilt, Kentucky.
• 6 Seeds: Arizona, West Virginia, Xavier, Texas A&M.
• 7 Seeds: Kansas State, Missouri, UCLA, George Mason.
• 8 Seeds: UNLV, Cincinnati, Utah State, Temple.
• 9 Seeds: Illinois, Old Dominion, Tennessee, Washington.
• 10 Seeds: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia.
• 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, Boston College.
• 12 Seeds: Clemson, Butler, Michigan, Alabama, UAB, Missouri State.
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston.
  
• 14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Coastal Carolina, Kent State, Fairfield.
  
• 15 Seeds: Vermont, Bucknell, Long Island, Murray State.
  
• 16 Seeds: Long Beach State, Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman.
  

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

16 days till Selection Sunday as more bubble teams hurt than helped their cause over the last week. Here’s the latest Bubble Watch update on where those teams stand heading into the stretch run:

New Locks

Xavier 21-6, (12-1) 27 RPI, 69 SOS– The Musketeers have now won 11 of 12 to establish themselves in a familiar spot atop the Atlantic 10 standings. Xavier holds a one game lead over Temple and won their only head-to-head matchup back on January 22. With a home game against bottom feeder Charlotte still remaining and an RPI/SOS to back up their record, Chris Mack’s team is safely in the Dance. Xavier also has non-conference wins at Georgia and vs. Butler to go along with Temple and at Richmond in A-10 play.

Temple 21-6 (11-2), 33 RPI, 108 SOS– Despite a plethora of injuries throughout the campaign, Temple has compiled a resume worthy of inclusion into the field of 68. The Owls stand at 11-2 in the Atlantic 10 and it’s highly unlikely they lose any of their final three games at George Washington, at Massachusetts and home vs. La Salle. Temple also beat Georgetown at home and Georgia on a neutral floor and beat Richmond at home. With a decent RPI also boosting their chances, the Owls are a safe bet for a bid.

Texas A&M 22-5 (9-4), 25 RPI, 47 SOS– It hasn’t been the smoothest of waters, but the Aggies have accumulated enough wins to be considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Prior to a 14-point win over Oklahoma in which A&M trailed at halftime, the Aggies won their previous four games by a combined 12 points. With a 9-4 Big 12 mark and a home date with Texas Tech still on the slate, they appear safe. A&M also downed Temple and Washington out of conference and have wins over Missouri and Kansas State during Big 12 play.

George Mason 24-5 (15-2), 28 RPI, 102 SOS– The Patriots certified their NCAA bid with a two-game road sweep at VCU and Northern Iowa. They boast the longest winning streak in the nation and finish with two very winnable games in CAA competition, rendering a 25-5 (16-2) overall mark and top 25 RPI all but a certainty. That should be more than enough in the committee’s eyes for an at-large berth.

UNLV 21-7 (9-5), 30 RPI, 42 SOS– This was a closer call than the previous three, but in today’s bubble climate the Rebels likely clinched a bid with their OT win at New Mexico on Wednesday night. Their RPI/SOS are stellar, they beat both Wisconsin (home) and Kansas State (semi-neutral in KC) away from MWC play and also won at bubble team Colorado State. Even if they should split very winnable games remaining vs. Wyoming and at Utah, 10-6 in the MWC with that Wisconsin win warrants inclusion.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Xavier, Temple.

Richmond 21-7 (10-3), 67 RPI, 170 SOS- The Spiders have faced Xavier and Temple in the last month and lost both games by a combined 43 points, a fact that surely will stand out to the committee when they convene in 16 days. Without much depth in the Atlantic 10, Richmond must first win out their remaining three games against sub RPI top-200 teams Charlotte and St. Joe’s then beat Duquesne at home to have any chance. They probably then have to beat either Xavier or Temple in the A-10 Tournament to earn a bid. Their lone win over an NCAA Tournament team was against Purdue on a neutral floor back in November.

ACC

Locks: Duke, North Carolina.

Florida State 19-8 (9-4), 45 RPI, 94 SOS– The Seminoles played their first legitimate game without Chris Singleton Wednesday at Maryland and the results weren’t promising. At 9-4 in the ACC, though, Florida State can lock up a bid by winning either vs. North Carolina or at NC State in the last week of the campaign. Luckily their one quality win was potential #1 seed Duke because FSU’s resume is bogged down by a #116 SOS, a horrendous loss at Auburn and only one other win against a possible NCAA Tournament team – Boston College at home.

Virginia Tech 18-8 (8-5), 51 RPI, 97 SOS– The RPI/SOS are poor, but hopefully the committee digs deeper and gives Seth Greenberg a bit of a pass for trying to schedule difficult non-conference games after last season’s debacle. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Mississippi State and UNLV all underachieved relative to expectations and a rash of injuries derailed hopes of a top-two ACC finish. Still, the Hokies have a remarkable opportunity staring them right in the face with Duke at home tomorrow. Win and they can clinch a bid by just splitting their final two games vs. Boston College and at Clemson.

Boston College 16-11 (6-7), 58 RPI, 17 SOS– The Eagles sustained their most devastating loss of the season at the worst possible time falling to Miami (FL) at home on Wednesday. BC badly needed to take care of business against the Hurricanes before heading out to Virginia and Virginia Tech in the next week. Steve Donahue’s team has now lost five games to teams with an RPI or 65 or less and their two wins over NCAA teams are Texas A&M on a neutral floor in November and home vs. Virginia Tech. Assuming a loss in Blacksburg, the Eagles at 8-8 in the ACC will need at least one conference tournament win to have a legitimate chance.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M.

Missouri 22-6 (8-5), 22 RPI, 55 SOS– The only reason Missouri isn’t a lock yet is because of their challenging slate still remaining – at Kansas State, at Nebraska and Kansas. It’s possible the Tigers could fall in all three games and drop to 21-9 (8-8) with only one road win in Big 12 play. Even then, Missouri would only need one or two wins in the Big 12 Tournament to solidify a bid, showing how close Mizzou is to locking up a spot in the field. Mike Anderson’s squad have three RPI top-50 wins out of conference over Vanderbilt (home), Illinois (neutral) and Old Dominion (home) and beat Kansas State (home).

Kansas State 19-9 (7-6), 28 RPI, 6 SOS– Frank Martin’s team took a major step towards an NCAA bid by downing fellow bubble team Nebraska on the road on Wednesday. The Wildcats’ RPI/SOS keeps climbing and that win over Kansas does stand out, plus it appears wins over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga could be worth something. Kansas State needs to reach 9-7 in the Big 12 to clinch a bid and they have home dates with Missouri and Iowa State to accomplish that feat. The sandwich game is at Texas, so it’s imperative the Wildcats protect their floor or they’ll have to win one game in the Big 12 Tournament.

Baylor 17-10 (6-7), 68 RPI, 39 SOS– Any team sitting bubble-out in late February needs RPI top-25 win opportunities. Luckily for Baylor, there are two golden opportunities still on the schedule with Texas A&M and Texas coming to Waco in the season’s final two weeks. The brutal RPI and losses to Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are devastating, and the only factor keeping the Bears alive is their remaining schedule and that road victory at Texas A&M. Baylor probably needs to go 2-1 (at Oklahoma State is the third game left, not exactly an easy win) and make a deep Big 12 Tournament run. For a team with preseason top 15 expectations, 2010-11 has been a bitter pill to swallow for Scott Drew.

Nebraska 18-9 (6-7), 75 RPI, 75 SOS– The Cornhuskers desperately needed to follow up their monumental win over Texas with a victory over Kansas State to continue their uphill climb. The close loss dropped Nebraska to 6-7 in the Big 12 and, with zero quality wins out of conference, they need to win their final three games at Iowa State, home vs. Missouri and at Colorado to have a fighter’s chance. Nebraska is 2-6 vs. the RPI top-25 with a win over Texas A&M to go along with Texas. The lackluster RPI/SOS obviously doesn’t help.

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