Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.

Tonight’s Lede. A staple of my childhood hoops watching fandom has and will forever be “Big Monday.” It never gets old. Finish up a quick dinner, find that comfortable spot on the couch, flick on your television (or, to be technologically correct, your ESPN3 Ipad app) and take in two quality matchups. ESPN’s Monday night special has always aired games from various leagues, but to me at least, there’s a strong connection to the Big East. That 7 PM ET window will always be associated with Big East hoops, and all the great memories it’s brought us over the years. As you already well know, the once-proud northeastern league is edging closer and closer towards extinction. Next year’s Big Monday (if it continues) will not be the same. Tonight’s Big East matchup, Louisville at UConn, won’t rank among the all-time greats. It probably won’t even classify as one of the better Big East games of 2012-13. But it was Big East basketball on a Monday night in January at 7 PM, riding out what’s looking evermore like the last year of its existence. That is good enough, as far as I’m concerned.

Your Watercooler Moment. The Cardinals Are Number One For A Reason.

The Cardinals may won’t keep the top ranking for the rest of the season, but for now, they’re playing like the best team in the country (Photo credit: AP Photo).

After a wild weekend of conference play, the coveted summit of the AP Poll got its first major shakeup of the season. Three unbeaten power clubs (Duke, Michigan, and Arizona) had fallen in the past seven days, so there was no obvious choice at number one. Louisville had a legitimate claim. The Cardinals’ only loss of the season came against the last month’s top dog, Duke, with defensive anchor Gorgui Dieng still nursing a wrist injury. All Rick Pitino’s team has done since that defeat was win, and do so in convincing fashion, excepting a tense second-half in a late-December win over rival Kentucky. Some clamored for Duke to retain its top ranking. Others vied for Michigan. For whatever reason – proximity of loss, per possession analysis, last year’s Final Four run – the Cardinals ended up with the majority of AP first-place votes. Maintaining that perch required Louisville to fend off a feisty UConn team in Storrs Monday night. All Louisville did was go out and show why some of the nation’s brightest hoops writers marked them atop their Monday ballots. The Huskies got out to a hot start, powered by tremendous guard play from freshman Omar Calhoun, and carried a 34-28 lead into the break. Then Louisville ratcheted up the defensive intensity and UConn withered under the Cardinals’ smothering pressure. Russ Smith added 23 points to outgun Calhoun, and the Huskies – energetic and confident as ever in the opening half – ran out of steam. That’s what number one teams do – they string you along for a while, keeping your team and fans invested in the flow of the game, waiting for the moment to seize on any misstep or sign of fatigue. Then they take control of the game, which is what Louisville did somewhere around the 10-minute mark in the second half. Louisville is as deserving of number one as any team in America. Everything about tonight’s performance (specifically, a four-minute run midway through the second half where the Cardinals opened up a 13-point lead) was foolproof evidence.

Tonight’s Quick Hit.

• The Kansas We Know. Had Ben McLemore not pulled off one of the finest banked-in three-pointers in recent memory to send Iowa State into overtime and preserve a home victory, this game would have felt something like a must win for the Jayhawks. Baylor, for all its flaws and inconsistency, was a bigger challenge for the Jayhawks. You almost had the sense that if the Bears caught Kansas sleeping again, and Isaiah Austin could put together an all-career game, and Pierre Jackson found holes on the perimeter, and a bunch of other favorable contingencies fell into place, the Bears had a real chance to hand Bill Self’s team its first home loss of the season. Well, no, you didn’t. Instead, you looked at the Bears, saw an incoherent and disparate group, and realized that Kansas is far and away the better team, and far and away the class of the Big 12. If the Jayhawks lose in conference play this season, it won’t happen in Lawrence.

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Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.

The Weekend’s Lede. Embrace a New National Champion. The hustle and bustle of conference play boils down to one of two objectives: 1) scramble and fight and scrap your way into the NCAA Tournament; or, for the elite teams, 2) pile up enough evidence to be deemed worthy of a favorable draw and seed. The goal that ties those two together is reaching the championship game and, ideally, winning it. Kentucky made it look easy last season, and based on the way Calipari reloaded with another top recruiting class (albeit less heralded than the 2011 group), it was not unwise to believe he could do it again. That avenue remains open, in the crude sense that the Wildcats are still eligible for postseason competition. In actuality, the fate of their title defense season was sealed this weekend, when Kentucky allowed Texas A&M – a low-rung team in an uncharacteristically weak SEC – to deliver the Wildcats’ second home loss of the season. Given the talent at his disposal, and his experience in grooming, molding and motivating said talent, John Calipari could well propel his young team back into the national conversation. I just don’t see it. Saturday’s loss marked the unofficial retirement of UK’s faint repeat hopes. But don’t worry, next season’s rejiggered squad, anchored by what some are calling the greatest recruiting class of all time, can bring everything full circle. The championship trophy will not return to Lexington in March. That’s not official; it’s what my eyes tell me. There will be a new champion in 2013, and the weekend’s action shed more light on the race for that top prize.

Your Watercooler Moment. Number One Goes Down. (Wheelchair, Ahoy!)

The hyperbolic reviews surrounding Duke’s sterling nonconference performance were completely warranted. The Blue Devils navigated a minefield of ranked opponents, including three top five teams in a two- week span, and the conquest of an absolutely loaded Battle 4 Atlantis Field. Few teams have ever pieced together a November and December stretch with so many quality wins against so many good teams – wins that, in regard to Minnesota, VCU, Temple, Clemson and Santa Clara, are looking better and better by the week. The totality of accomplishment is almost immeasurable. The Blue Devils were thrust atop the polls and praised for their offensive efficiency. Mason Plumlee seized the early lead in the National Player Of The Year race. Seth Curry’s toughness (he has battled chronic leg pain all season) and resolve was eulogized. The outpouring of national praise almost made it feel like Duke was the only real team that mattered in the ACC. UNC had fallen off the map. NC State got tabbed with the “overrated” tag. Florida State was a sinking ship. What many seemed to conveniently forget was that the Wolfpack – the same team that (gasp!) lost to Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and at Michigan, causing large swaths of college hoops fans to write them off as a specious product of the preseason hype machine – were selected by the coaches and media in separate preseason polls to win the league outright. Those two early-season losses threw everyone off the Wolfpack bandwagon, which, come to think of it, might just be the best thing that ever happened to NC State’s season. While the nation fawned over Duke’s top-50 RPI wins and Plumlee’s double-doubles and Rasheed Sulaimon’s youthful verve, the Wolfpack were slowly, surely, methodically rounding into form. When the opportunity presented itself Saturday, as a Ryan Kelly-less Blue Devils team strolled into Raleigh, the Wolfpack did what every coach and media member predicted they’d do before the season began. They took care of the gaudy Blue Devils, and afterward, in the midst of a delirious post-game court-storming, the Wolfpack reveled in the culmination of their roller coaster season.

Also Worth Chatting About. Take Your Pick: Indiana or Michigan.

The Hoosiers’ offense didn’t miss a step in Saturday’s home win over Minnesota (Photo credit: AP Photo).

It required less than two weeks for conference competition to slay college basketball’s remaining unbeaten teams. Michigan had looked flawless in its first two Big Ten games, blowout wins over Northwestern and Iowa, generating all kinds of national championship hype along the way (the home win over Nebraska wasn’t as pretty, but it didn’t discredit the Wolverines’ glowing stature). Ohio State, meanwhile, exposed real flaws in a 19-point blowout loss at Purdue earlier in the week. Their faint hopes of pulling an upset at home against Michigan were, well, exactly that: faint. Michigan’s seeming invincibility, Ohio State’s disproportionate offense – any discussion of the Buckeyes invariably panned to a common concern over a lack of complementary scorers to supplement DeShaun Thomas – and the matchup advantages that implied, conveniently glossed over the fact that the Big Ten is a ruthless, rugged, unforgiving road, particularly when rivalries are involved. Ohio State’s victory proved, if nothing else, that the most extreme evaluations of each team to date – that Michigan is the best team in the country, and Ohio State a middle-pack-to-lower-tier Big Ten outfit – were a bit ambitious on both ends. In fact, the former trope may have been discredited before Michigan even took the floor Sunday, because Indiana, in its first real test since losing to Butler in early December, reminded everyone why the national consensus settled so firmly on the Hoosiers as the preseason number one team in the country. The final score at Assembly Hall Saturday will skew the reality of Indiana’s home toppling of Minnesota. The first half showcased an overwhelming offensive onslaught, fueled by rapid ball movement, aggressive and attentive defensive work, can’t-miss shooting aggressive and a booming home crowd. It was the epitome of Indiana’s basketball potential, bottled up into a 20-minute segment, unleashed on one of the nation’s best and most physical teams (Minnesota). An informal poll measuring the Big Ten’s best team following this weekend would favor Indiana, but I’m not so sure we can make that assumption based off two critical games. The conference season is a long and enduring grind. We’ll gather more evidence and draw that distinction later this winter. Deal?

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Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Winning the NCAA Tournament requires a fortuitous boost of momentum. Getting hot at the right time is just as important as crafting a gaudy NCAA Tournament resume. The tourney is a sprint, not a long-winded journey, the very essence of the regular season. Teams face 30-game gauntlets of varying difficulty, but getting through unscathed – regardless of schedule strength – is immensely difficult. To go undefeated in the regular season is to survive dozens of potential pitfalls and enormous mounting national pressure. You’re pestered with constant questions about “the streak” and “the goal.” Coaches dedicate extra hours to engineering the foolproof game plan that will slay the giant. Student sections get geeked up beyond reason in the hopes of helping their favorite teams spring the upset. Only special teams can make it without bowing to those pressures. There are no special teams in 2012-13; no one is running the table this year. There are no dominant teams, no 2012 Kentuckys or 2009 North Carolinas – two all-time great teams who couldn’t make it through the regular season without taking at least one loss. Three undefeated teams entered Thursday night’s games, all nationally prominent programs from high major conferences. Two now remain, and the other two will meet their unbeaten doomsday sooner rather than later.

Your Watercooler Moment. A Close Game Arizona Couldn’t Win.

Dominic Artis (left) celebrates the win over Arizona with a fan after the student section rushed the court. (Photo by Rockne Andrew Roll)

A universal theme in advanced statictical analysis at the team level is skepticism over narrow margins of victory. Over time, close wins balance out, luck turns into late-game misfortune, and all those last-possession victories stacked up early in the season are joined by a near equal number of nail-biting losses. Four of Arizona’s best wins this season – at Clemson, vs. Florida, vs. San Diego State and vs. Colorado – came down to the final moments. It’s most recent closer-than-close triumph against Colorado was the best reminder of the fine-tooth comb that is late-game management. The difference between winning and losing hotly-contested fixtures can be a missed jump shot, a pass thrown out of bounds, an errant dribble off one’s leg, a clanked free-throw. Or, an outdated replay monitor can blur the referees’ review efficacy and rob one Sabatino Chen of a classic buzzer-beating upset. Arizona had the looming specter of karmic reprisal hanging over its heads as it traveled to Eugene to take on a quality Oregon team. The stage was set for the Ducks to dethrone Arizona on the final possession and end the Wildcats’ streak of late-game fortune. Instead, Oregon battled Arizona from the start with physical defense, a hyper-athletic frontcourt, a couple of really intriguing freshmen (Dominic Artis and Damyeon Dotson can really play) and a balanced offensive attack. The victory wasn’t sealed until Nick Johnson committed a crucial turnover near the three-point line with Arizona down just three and less than 10 seconds to go, but the Ducks held double-digit leads for large stretches in the second half. This wasn’t a fluky, home-crafted upset. Oregon was every bit the better team tonight.

Tonight’s Quick Hits. 

• About That “Crushing” Reggie Johnson Injury. The prevailing view on Reggie Johnson’s thumb injury was that Miami was really going to miss its senior big man. Johnson isn’t the most skilled or the most athletic frontcourt player around. What he is – and I mean this in a totally positive, not-Josh Smith way – is massive, an immovable force who eats up space and hoards prime positioning under and around the basket. Plus, Johnson really gets after it on the offensive and defensive boards, protects the rim and physically dominates whoever enters the painted area. Since Johnson went on the mend around Christmas, Miami has won four of six games, its only losses coming against Arizona and Indiana State at the Diamond Head Classic. None of its wins (Hawaii, LaSalle, Georgia Tech) really cemented the belief that Miami could thrive without Johnson in the lineup, but Thursday night’s triumph over North Carolina did exactly that (UNC is no world-beater, but a solid win nonetheless) especially because forward Kenny Kadji – an extremely talented but inconsistent frontcourt piece – was excellent. Once Johnson returns, throw him into a frontcourt rotation with Kadji, and this team is as qualified as any to make a run at Duke for league bragging rights. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Hello Conference Play. The college basketball season hasn’t been all that much to celebrate through its first two months. For the most part, it’s been pretty nondescript. Memorable moments have come in short supply. My favorite, and I’d like to think I’m not alone, was Butler’s December upset of then-No. 1 Indiana at the Crossroads Classic. It had all the elements of a storybook hoops upset – the Hoosiers’ huge bankroll and administrative base, less-monied Butler and its walk-on hero Alex Barlow, the in-state hatred dynamic, the subtle but very real implication that Brad Stevens took Tom Crean and his blue-chip recruits to school with half of his starting lineup sitting on the bench in crunch time – and it anchored the non-conference season with a classic David and Goliath takedown. It happened on a Saturday, which is the day most fans attach to high-quality hoop. Nothing that happened Wednesday night topped Butler-IU. What took place featured an entirely different brand of basketball: It was the first truly tantalizing weeknight slate of league play, and it was pure bliss. We’re not just talking close games between equally-matched teams. There were pivotal showdowns pitting league contenders, upsets, tricky road trips, incredible individual scoring performances. You know, conference play. ‘Tis the season.

Your Watercooler Moment. Jayhawks Find A Way.

The Jayhawks Just Got By Another Upset-Minded visitor at Allen Fieldhouse (Photo credit: Getty Images).

For the second straight game, a rare emotional grip has clenched the hearts and stirred the pulses of Jayhawk fans deep into the second half of a game at their favorite arena, Allen Fieldhouse, featuring their favorite team, Kansas. On Sunday, Temple – who earlier this season knocked off then-undefeated Syracuse at Madison Square Garden – came within a few possessions of toppling another huge national contender before finally bowing out in the waning moments. The Jayhawks probably expected an easier time with visiting Iowa State Wednesday night. The Cyclones can really score the ball and they clean up their own misses, but no one suspected they had a chance against one of the best teams in the country in one of its toughest venues. Not only did they prove they had a chance, Fred Hoiberg’s team very nearly did the unthinkable, and were it not for Ben McLemore’s 33 points and banked three-pointer inside the final minute to force overtime, the Cyclones would have left Lawrence with one of the best true road wins of any team in the country. Any discussion of this year’s Big 12 title chase begins and ends with Kansas. They are the biggest championship lock of any high-major conference – that is the perception, at least. It is not a false one, either, even after tonight’s close call against the Cyclones. If anything, the Jayhawks are showing they can scrap out wins in a number of adverse situations. Bill Self’s team has come exceedingly close to bursting at the seams – and bursting the Jayhawks’ home win streak – in consecutive games, and they’ve survived on both occasions. And if McLemore can do what he did Wednesday night with any measure of consistency, then this Big 12 race really is a fait accompli.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Face Off Between Two Of The Mountain West’s Best. Looking at UNLV’s talent and its absolutely loaded frontcourt, you would expect this team to be a constant in the top-10 of every national poll, ranking, power-ranking and per-possession evaluation system. Instead, the Rebels have run into some difficulty sorting out their interior rotation, watched Mike Moser go down with a serious elbow injury, and lost two games against good-but-not-great opposition (Oregon, North Carolina). This team is eminently more talented than New Mexico, but the Lobos are an absolute nightmare at the Pit, and they too, feature a balanced and potent lineup. New Mexico isn’t going to lose many games in its treacherous home gym, and the Rebels, for all their five-star talent and firepower, still have some tinkering to do before they’re ready to seize the league title. These teams – along with San Diego State, and to a lesser degree Boise State, Colorado State and Wyoming – will push each other in the conference standings all season long. I can’t wait.  Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Pyrrhic Victories For Missouri and Duke. There is nothing surprising about the outcomes of Duke and Missouri’s Tuesday night conference match-ups. The Blue Devils predictably smothered a marginally-skilled Clemson team at Cameron Indoor while the Tigers dropped 84 points on Alabama’s unusually forgiving defense. Both teams will finish the year near the top of their respective leagues, and both should secure top-three seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Duke and Missouri are rolling right now. They share another commonality: a dearth of quality frontcourt depth. And by virtue of sharing that personnel characteristic, Duke and Missouri must now weather a very real problem: injuries. With Ryan Kelly and  Laurence Bowers both exiting their games with specific ailments, Duke and Missouri could be without two hugely important interior pieces for the foreseeable future (each player will undergo further testing Wednesday to determine the severity of the injuries). It’s not a crushing blow for either team – remember, we’re talking about NCAA Tournament locks. Life could be worse. But with both teams coming upon tricky Saturday road games – Duke at NC State, and Missouri at Ole Miss – playing without Kelly and Bowers, respectively, is going to require substantial adjustments. These teams are versatile and adaptable enough to make it work, but the difficulty level of an already hazardous road test could now be that much higher. Not having Kelly and Bowers is going to affect those games — whether their absences are enough to flip the outcome in the home teams’ favor is an open question.

Your Watercooler Moment. Georgetown Has Problems.

Offense remains a huge problem for Georgetown (Photo credit: AP).

You don’t need to have the world’s most efficient offense to chase conference championships and NCAA Tournament berths. You do need to be at the very least competent on that end of the floor. Georgetown qualifies, but only barely. They masked their offensive deficiencies throughout the non-conference season with a handful of ugly wins – including a 37-36 line against Tennessee and a 46-point output against Towson at home. Big East teams know better; they know the limitations of John Thompson III’s Princeton offense, and so far, Marquette and Pittsburgh have exploited those weaknesses by handing the Hoyas two straight losses to open Big East play. Georgetown scored a combined 93 points in those two games. The first loss is not a huge injustice by any stretch; Marquette is a tough out at the Bradley Center. The latter is worrisome, if only because the Hoyas compounded their poor offense by allowing Pittsburgh to shoot 55 percent from the floor and 62 percent from three. Georgetown doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up, much less contend, when opponents shoot that well from the floor. The Hoyas grounded their early success on stingy defense, and that formula worked for the first two months of the season. The Big East is a quite simply a different beast. Georgetown needs its typically stifling defense as a baseline for success. It can’t expect to get caught up in high-scoring fixtures. The Hoyas don’t play that game. They force turnovers, block shots, protect the rim and do just enough offensively. That formula only works with seamless defensive execution intact. Against Pittsburgh, the defense wasn’t there. Georgetown has fought this trend in recent years – winning in November and December, only to fall flat in Big East play. Avoiding another conference slide will necessitate some measure of offensive capability. Failing that, the Hoyas can’t afford any defensive lapses from here on out.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. SEC Owns Football. As For Basketball… Allow me to use this space to preemptively strike against the legion of SEC hawks bound to celebrate in droves after Alabama’s thrashing of Notre Dame in the BCS National Championship game, the conference’s seventh consecutive title. Because guess what, SEC fans? Your hoops league is pretty bad – by power conference standards, at least. It’s looking more and more like the conference will produce somewhere in the range of three-to-four NCAA teams, and that’s assuming Kentucky performs its typical Caliparian midseason rapid maturation process and picks up a few credible wins in league play. The SEC is an unassailable beast on the gridiron right now, but that dominance does not extend to the basketball side of things. With the exception of Florida and Missouri, it’s a barren landscape. Meanwhile, Notre Dame – what a dichotomously vexing night for the Irish. On one hand, the football team was bludgeoned, battered and broken on the biggest stage in the sport. That hurts, and it’s all Notre Dame fans really care about on this Monday night. The men’s hoops team fought off a grindingly intense Cincinnati team in their house to cement its place in the Big East elite, which is a big-time win for hoops fans but probably little more than a moral pacifier for Notre Dame supporters across the country. This is a bad, bad night for Irish athletics, even if Mike Brey’s team looked anything but in its showcase Big East road bout.

Your Watercooler Moment. Cincinnati’s Home Issues.

The Bearcats needs to get back on the winning track at home (Photo credit: AP Photo).

One home loss is an aberration. Two is a concern. Three is a string of evidence that bears further analysis. All three of Cincinnati’s losses this season have come at Fifth Third Arena, the latest a six-point defeat at the hands of Notre Dame. Two of those losses are passable – New Mexico is a stylistic analog with a smothering defense; Notre Dame’s offense is top-five efficiency-wise, armed with a coterie of capable shooters and savvy big men. Losing to St. John’s is not forgivable. Were these three slip-ups spread out over the first two months of the season, this might feel like less of a concern. Even teams as physically tough and skilled as Cincinnati lose games from time to time. But the Bearcats have now lost three of four, their only win coming at Pittsburgh. That is not nothing. It is something to think about, at the very least. It’s easy to point to the continuing offensive deficiencies, and the lack of an interior anchor. Those are not new revelations; we’ve long since known about Cincinnati’s offensive shortcomings. And New Mexico and Notre Dame are playing quality basketball on both ends of the floor. The Irish are measurably better than Cincinnati on a per-possession basis, and the Lobos are as good at taking you out of your offensive flow – which Cincinnati mostly lacks in the first place – as any team in the country. Cincinnati’s recent skid is puzzling because when good teams lose, they usually lose on the road, when hostile crowds and travel sluggishness and, ahem, natural advantages, just don’t go your way. Winning games in foreign gyms is important and all, but equally so is defending your home court. You’re supposed to win those games, after all. And more likely than not, Cincinnati is going to take a few hits on the road in Big East play. They aren’t good enough to survive that gauntlet. No one is. Do I think this is a permanently debilitating problem? No. This reeks of sample size aberration, and – lest we forget – some pretty high-level competition (save St. John’s). This team is far too good defensively, and far too loaded in the backcourt, to keep up this mystifying home charade. A January 19 visit from Marquette looms large.

Tonight’s Quick Hit. 

• Hoosiers Gear Up For First Big Ten Test. There’s not much you can draw from Indiana’s 74-51 demolition of Penn State. Other that the fact that the Hoosiers, contrary to last year’s evidence, appear far more impervious to road environments than last season – the Hoosiers dropped five of their first six conference games away from Assembly Hall, and are 2-0 so far this season – and the reality of Indiana’s hyper-efficient offense, this game offered no surprises. If anything, Indiana was probably happy to get out of Happy Valley with an easy win, hop on the bus, flip on the TV to watch nearby Notre Dame get stomped in the national championship game, then start mentally preparing for Minnesota, who is as athletic and efficient and lethal as any team the Hoosiers have faced all season. The Gophers come to Bloomington Saturday for a massive Big Ten showdown.

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Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

The Weekend’s Lede. This weekend brought a comforting turn in the hoops calendar. It was the first weekend spent in the throes of conference play. On Saturday, starting at 11am ET with Pittsburgh at Rutgers and on through Sunday night, high-quality games could be found on various networks. There were upsets, blowouts, and predictable results – all of which we’ve seen at different stages this season. But there’s a different vibe when it comes to conference play, to me at least, and it was refreshing to take it all in. Gone are the days of high majors beating down cupcakes. Most conference games are real, competitive, no-sleep-walking-allowed basketball games. And they’re here to stay, at least until April. This put me in an especially rosy mood, which is a good sign for what lies ahead in 2013, and an even better sign for college basketball in general. League competition is already shaking perceptions and standings in noticeable ways, and we haven’t even yet broken free of the college football fever. Just wait until February; I can hardly hide my excitement. So let’s recap the first conference weekend. It was a good one.

Your Watercooler Moment. CJ McCollum Breaks His Foot.

After bursting on the scene during last season’s upset over No. 2 Duke, McCollum could very well have seen his last sample of NCAA Tournament basketball (Photo credit: AP).

Twice this season C.J. McCollum has left NBA Scouts looking for refunds on game tickets. The first time was a minor medical ailment. McCollum sprained his ankle and couldn’t suit up for a Dec. 20 game against North Texas. Saturday’s injury was far more severe. What’s truly saddening about McCollum’s broken foot isn’t the lengthy eight-to-ten-week recovery or the implications for his NBA draft status. It’s the fact that McCollum made the move most college basketball fans wish future first-round picks would make more often. McCollum eschewed guaranteed millions to play out his eligibility. In April, he penned a reflective piece explaining his decision. The SportingNews’ Mike DeCourcy dug up one of McCollum’s pivotal justifications: “By returning for my senior year, I give myself a chance to complete my degree at a prestigious university, while putting myself in a position to be successful no matter what happens in my future.” McCollum will still accomplish those goals, but the basketball component of his senior year won’t go as planned. Passing up the professional game for another year in college is always risky business. Many players wind up hurting their “draft stock” and regretting their decisions. McCollum should be back before the end of the season, and I have little doubt he can redeem whatever shine he may lose during his recovery, whether that be in the midst of a late-season Tournament surge or in draft workouts. McCollum is a preternaturally gifted scorer. He belongs in the NBA. This will do little, if anything, to hurt his draft prospects – provided he returns to his pre-injury form. It’s a tough setback, but nothing McCollum, a determined, clear-headed and driven individual, cannot overcome.

Also Worth Chatting About. Nothing Will Come Easy In The Big Ten.

The Illini didn’t need hot three-point shooting to dominate Ohio State in Champaign (Photo Credit: Getty Images).

The formula to Illinois’ early success was flawed. It depended heavily on the three-point shot, which is an inherently risky way to win basketball games, but even more perilous when you don’t have a reliable source of interior scoring. Which Illinois didn’t…..until Saturday. The Illini’s win over Ohio State wasn’t surprising. It was the way Illinois bombarded the Buckeyes not with long-range shots, but with effective low post play. Sophomore forward Nnanna Egwu was slowly, surely coming around of late, but he came up small in this week’s loss at Purdue, and one was starting to get the sense he was still a year or two away from contributing in meaningful ways. On Saturday, he showed up, and boy, does Ohio State wish he hadn’t. Egwu finished with 16 points and eight rebounds to bail out Illinois’ again poor three-point shooting (8-for-27). Illinois showed it doesn’t need the long-ball to knock off good teams – at least not when Egwu’s holding fort in the paint. The same problems remain with Ohio State: Can anyone help DeShaun Thomas shoulder the scoring load? Is Aaron Craft that guy? Will Shannon Scott, Laquinton Ross and Sam Thompson pick up steam as the season rolls along? This will give John Groce’s team boatloads of confidence for an upcoming home date with Minnesota, but the way the Gophers have looked thus far, it may need to recapture its hot three-point shooting stroke to spring the upset.

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Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Pac-12 Takes Center Stage. Last season, the Pac-12 made history by becoming the first Big Six conference not to send its regular season champion to the NCAA Tournament via an at-large bid. The downward spiral that lead to this unfortunate circumstance began in non-conference play, where the league squandered nearly all of its big match-ups, which deflated the Pac-12’s RPI and set up a vicious cycle whereby teams had no shot of upward movement on the NCAA bubble shuffling line. This year, the league is marginally better. The high-end quality, starting with UCLA and Arizona, is light year’s ahead of where it was last season, but the league as a whole isn’t all that much improved. Three momentous Pac-12 matchups – Cal at UCLA, Colorado at Arizona and Stanford at USC – highlighted tonight’s slate, each of which allowed for valuable observation and analysis. Without giving away the rest of tonight’s ATB, I’ll reveal this much: the Pac-12 isn’t horrible!; which is to say, the regular season champ, whoever that may be, should be on solid footing come Selection Sunday.

Your Watercooler Moment. Apparent Buzzer-Beater Waved Off To Deny Colorado Huge Road Win At Arizona.

In truth, I’d love to discuss the way Colorado went out and fought Arizona for 40 minutes (and OT), the way Tad Boyle’s team got five players in double figures and played remarkably resilient hoop against the No. 3 team in the country in a tough road environment, the way the Buffaloes proved the Pac-12 race is far from the foregone conclusion many envisioned after the Wildcats’ veritably peerless non-conference work. But I just can’t. The biggest talking point is unavoidable – Sabatino Chen’s buzzer beater that wasn’t. Debate will rage on for days about whether or not Chen’s banked-in three was released before the buzzer, and whether the officials had enough evidence to overturn the initial ruling (a made bucket, a Colorado win). For a closer look, assuming you’re not satisfied with the real-time footage provided above, check out this GIF segmenting Chen’s release into discrete steps. The controversy will intensify if this ultimately leads to Colorado’s NCAA Tournament denial. But seeing as Colorado took the undefeated Wildcats to the absolute brink – and did so without a productive scoring night from star forward Andre Roberson (nine points on 3-of-7 from the floor) – this team looks very capable of making noise in the Pac 12 title chase and earning an at-large bid without sweating Selection Sunday. Besides, an event as controversial and contentious as this often has a galvanizing effect on a team. This could springboard Colorado into a substantial winning streak; the opposite effect – a demoralizing defeat that leads to a downward losing spiral – is a possibility, but I’m not betting on Colorado feeling sorry for itself. Tad Boyle will have his bunch playing inspired basketball when they take the floor at Arizona State in three days. Fairly or unfairly officiated, it’s a total drag to see such a tight game come down to an official’s whistle. When two of the Pac 12’s best teams meet up, I think we can all agree the teams, not the referees, should be the ones settling the final score.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Wolverines Dispel B1G Road Game Theory. The common perception about this year’s Big Ten is that every road game, save a few locales, will be a chore. That’s been the look of things so far, with Illinois losing to Purdue Wednesday night, and Indiana just barely hanging on at Iowa on New Year’s Eve. Michigan had no such trouble on its trip to Northwestern. The Wolverines trounced Bill Carmody’s team on the strength of 44 combined points from backcourt duo Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Burke got anything he wanted, whenever and wherever he wanted it. The Wildcats, already without defensive specialist JerShonn Cobb (suspension) and perimeter weapon Drew Crawford (injury), were without leading scorer Reggie Hearn, which turned an already undermanned lineup into coterie of inexperienced freshmen and marginal role players. Whether or not Northwestern was at full strength, Michigan wasn’t losing this game. In fact, I’m not sure there’s a team in the country that can beat the Wolverines when they shoot 59 percent from beyond the arc and just under 60 percent overall. Read the rest of this entry »

*Editor’s Note: This version of the ATB covers games played Tuesday and Wednesday night.

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. New Year Means New Opportunity.The first day of every new year is dominated by upper-tier college football bowl games. It is a timeless tradition that leaves little room for meaningful basketball. A few games tipped off in the January 1 twilight, and one was about as controversial as they come, but it wasn’t until Wednesday night that a full slate cropped up to lead us out of the Holidays with a hearty portion of hoops consumption. With the calendar flipped, there’s vast opportunity for teams to set new upward or downward trends. Some will wilt under the pressure of conference play. Others will amp up their efforts and springboard into prominent national standing. Nonconference play was just the beginning. Here’s where the Darwinian forces of college basketball weed out the weak links and where the strongest, fittest, most-balanced outfits emerge for the long haul. The NCAA Tournament remains a distant endpoint, but from here on out, the opportunities for improvement grow leaner as the calendar nears March. In the new year, margin for error is minimal. That’s what makes conference play so critical.

Your Watercooler Moment. Officiating Blunder Mars Big East Thriller.

A refereeing blunder dominated the post-game discussion from a hard-fought Big East contest (Photo credit: AP Photo).

The complex sequence of events that denied UConn a basket at the beginning of overtime in the Huskies’ 82-76 loss at Marquette is complex and long-winded. I’m still trying to figure out exactly where the officials went wrong. From what I can glean, it boils down to this: UConn was robbed two points for the referees’ failure to reorient each team to the proper scoring goal following erroneous tipoff positioning; players lined up facing the wrong direction at the tip, and officials botched a potential goaltending call, in which UConn should have been awarded two-points. The Huskies had plenty of opportunity to make up for whatever the officials may or may not have unfairly revoked, but when you lose a valuable possession at the beginning of overtime, it’s a devastating blow not only for momentum purposes. It effectively negates one of a finite number of possessions in a crucial timeframe where every trip down the floor can swing the final outcome. The game was not lost because officials have some unspoken personal vendetta with UConn’s basketball program, or because it fell victim to the Golden Eagles’ home court influence. Referees make mistakes. This one happened so late in the game, and in such mystifying fashion, that it inevitably draws the brunt of the blame for UConn’s defeat. I’m not minimizing the effect of the referees’ blunder – to reiterate: mistakes hurt, especially in overtime. I’m merely emphasizing the downside of a third-party blip looming over what was a truly entertaining Big East battle between two solid teams.

Your Quick Hits…

• Another Boeheim Milestone. Historical benchmarks have defined Syracuse’s season as much as anything else, and Jim Boeheim made another step in the all-time wins pantheon Wednesday night by securing his 903^rd W to pass Bob Knight and move into 2^nd place behind Mike Krzyzewski. Buckets of praise, and an almost near-equal amount of pushback, erupted following Boeheim’s passing into the vaunted 900 realm a few weeks back, so it’s best we not revisit the coach’s career achievements. Boeheim’s career is a curious test case on the valuation of wins vs. postseason accomplishment. Perseverance and longevity in the coaching profession is Boeheim’s defining trait – 903 wins, no matter the rate of accumulation, requires an eternity of year-long dedication and grinding commitment. The controversy stems from Boeheim’s thin postseason credentials relative to career length. With just one national championship and three Final Fours to his name over 37 years of sideline time, where does Boeheim rank in the pecking order of coaching legends? I don’t know, and neither do you – not until he finally decides to call it quits.

• Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Conference Play Rocks. Analyzing and prognosticating and laying out bold analytical claims about teams is a fun debate this time of year. Teams are assigned permanent labels. Players earn reputations, rightly or wrongly, that stick around far longer than they should. All of this is premature – the best advice in November and December is to reserve judgment. Because once conference play begins, teams’ identities shine through, and many of the perceptions and conclusions we make are rendered useless. Two of the best leagues in the country, the Big Ten and Big East, kicked off their conference slates Monday in grand fashion. And if you got a taste of Pittsburgh-Cincinnati, or Indiana-Iowa, or Michigan State-Minnesota, you can already infer the obvious: conference competition entails a whole new level of competitiveness and intensity. With that, it is now time to get into your first weekday of league play, with a hope that the rest of the reason brings the same if not more entertaining hoops action.

Your Watercooler Moment. Minnesota’s Good; Michigan State’s Almost There. We Knew That Already.

The Big Ten is a cluttered jumble of Tournament hopefuls and championship contenders.What Minnesota showed monday is that its nonconference work was no anomaly (photo credit: AP Photo).

For anyone who watched Minnesota and Michigan State play any portion of their nonconference schedules, this game was a perfect precursor for the type of gritty, hard-nosed, highly-competitive Big Ten showdowns that should play out in high frequency over the next two months. Minnesota’s win also confirmed what most already knew about the Gophers: this team is a serious threat to vie for the Big Ten crown. Loaded and Top-heavy as the Big Ten is this season, Tubby Smith’s team has it all: Andre Hollins is a heady lead guard with a wide arsenal of perimeter scoring skills. Trevor Mbakwe belongs in the NBA today. Rodney Williams is one of the two or three best pure athletes in college basketball. And Austin Hollins is a stingy on-ball defender who’s offensive game isn’t all that far behind. Put it all together, and what you get is Tubby Smith’s best team at Minnesota. The way both teams have looked so far this season, Michigan State taking the Gophers to the wire at the Barn is not an altogether bad outcome. The Spartans are still sorting out their frontcourt rotation, still trying to leverage all of Gary Harris’ creative intuition and still searching for the defense-and-rebounding identity that Tom Izzo’s teams gradually assume over the course of a season. Basically, the Gophers’ win confirmed most every empirical insight we had about both teams coming in. That’s comforting for my basketball brain, if anything.

Your Quick Hits…

• Hoosiers Flaunt Road Chops. The biggest skeptics of Indiana’s preseason No. 1 ranking were fairly unanimous on one perceived flaw: Indiana can’t win on the road. And you know what? They’re weren’t totally off their rockers. The Hoosiers did take their lumps last season when away from cushy Assembly Hall and the enormous home field advantage it awards them – particularly in Big Ten play, where they pulled out just three of nine road tests. There’s no telling how last year’s Indiana team would have responded to Monday’s road date at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, where a retooled and vastly improved Iowa squad gave the Hoosiers their best shot. In the end, Indiana’s immensely talented and deep roster overcame Iowa’s very best efforts, and that’s a huge relief if you’re an Indiana fan. If the Hoosiers can go into tough environments like Iowa and win the games they just weren’t ready for last season, there’s nothing standing in the way of a Big Ten regular season title. Read the rest of this entry »