Travis Ford couldn’t have felt great when the bracket was announced on Sunday. His Cowboys, a #5 seed, were paired with the most under-seeded team in the Dance, the Oregon Ducks. It was obvious that the selection committee had no respect for the Pac-12, as the Ducks finished second in the regular season Pac-12 race and were apparently on the bubble until winning the conference tournament over the weekend. The folks over at Busting The Bracket think Oregon should have been a #5 or #6 seed, as a contrast. The committee didn’t seem to care that four of Oregon’s eight losses came without one of its best players, freshman guard Dominic Artis, who leads the team with 3.4 APG. With Artis in the lineup, the Ducks beat UNLV, Arizona, and swept UCLA.

Travis Ford Had A Great Season But Was Given No Breaks The First Weekend Of The Dance. (Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press)

Nate Silver gives the Cowboys a 60.5% chance of beating the Ducks and Vegas has OSU as a three-point favorite. If Oklahoma State can survive the Round of 64, it will face a Final Four sleeper before the Sweet Sixteen, #4 seed Saint Louis. The Billikens have become a dark horse to make the Final Four during the last month or so. They swept the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament championships ahead of more nationally-popular programs such as Butler and VCU. They went 5-0 against those teams this year and beat #3 seed New Mexico by 14 at home on New Year’s Eve. The Billikens were constructed well by the late Rick Majerus and have been led by senior Kwamain Mitchell, who averages 10.4 PPG and 3.0 APG. Like Oregon, Saint Louis can discount a few losses while Mitchell was out with an injury. He sat out the beginning of the year and the Billikens still went 8-3. Since his return on December 28, they have won 19 of 22 games. Take out the losses to Santa Clara and Washington without Mitchell and you could argue they should be a #3 seed, more bad news for Oklahoma State.

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We released the Official RTC Bracket for the South and East Regions earlier today — be sure to check that out if you need a refresher on our methodology for this exercise — and we’ll save you the fluff this time and cut right to the chase with the Midwest and West Regions. (note: our Final Four selections are after the analyses)

Quick Hitters From the Midwest Region

• Advancing to Atlanta: #1 Louisville
• Round of 64 Upset: #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis
• Later Round Upset: N/A
• Three Most Disputed Games: #5 Oklahoma State over #12 Oregon, #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis, #2 Duke over #3 Michigan State

Four Questions About the Midwest Region

Louisville is the odds-on favorite to not just advance out of the Midwest Region, but win the National Championship. Which team has the best chance at dashing Louisville’s title hopes?

Does Pitino Have Another One of These In His Immediate Future? (Getty Images)

Andrew Murawa: After giving the Cards the nod as the overall #1 seed, the selection committee certainly didn’t do them any more favors, dropping them in, what is to me, the toughest region in the bracket. Once they get out of the Round of 64 in this region, Rick Pitino’s club could be facing nothing but dangerous clubs, from the nation’s best rebounding team in Colorado State, to one of the nation’s hottest teams in Saint Louis, to possibly Michigan State or Duke in the Elite Eight. All of those teams can beat the Cards. But the team with the best chance is certainly the Blue Devils, a squad that has already beaten them this season, albeit without Gorgui Dieng.

The #8 vs. #9 game is usually a coin-flip type of game, but it is a 100% consensus that Colorado State beats Missouri. Are the Rams that much better than Missouri?

Zach Hayes: The Rams are by no means world-beaters, but the consensus opinion probably stems from their ability to compete where Missouri excels: on the boards. Colorado State ranks in the nation’s top two in both offensive and defensive rebounding, a glass-crashing tenacity which should work to negate the rebounding prowess of both Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers. The confidence also resides in how shaky Missouri has been at the tail end of close games despite featuring an elite point guard in Phil Pressey. Most bracket prognosticators would rather go to war with a Rams team starting five seniors over Missouri’s constant unpredictability away from home, where their only scalps came against the dregs of the SEC.

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Jeff Capel had it working in Norman. Building off the success of his predecessor Kelvin Sampson, Capel took the Sooners to consecutive  NCAA Tournament appearances in 2007 and 2008. Heading into practice, the 2008-09 season had all the makings of a season to remember. The Sooners boasted the future #1 pick of next year’s NBA Draft coupled with Willie Warren, a McDonald’s All-American from Dallas, not to mention the return of veteran contributors Taylor Griffin and Tony Crocker. They won 30 games that year before eventually losing in the Elite Eight to eventual national champion North Carolina.

Since 2009? Nothing.

For the first time since this guy suited up, the Sooners are dancing. (Joe Murphy/Getty Images)

But it was only a matter of time before a program like Oklahoma would rise again. Lon Kruger, known as a fixer of ailing programs, has the Sooners dancing in just his second season in Norman. As the Sooners hovered around the middle of the Big 12 this year, they were searching for a leader and found it in senior Romero Osby, He’s playing the best basketball of his career, and I believe that had he not made the step from role player to lead, the Sooners may have been on the outside looking in with this Tournament. After struggling to start the year, another senior, Stephen Pledger, has turned it on as well. Oklahoma finds itself as the #10 seed in the South Region paired with #7 seed San Diego State. As a result, OU can conceivably win its first foray back into the Madness since those Griffin brothers were still wearing red uniforms together.

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With seven regular season games remaining on the schedule in mid-February, Rick Pitino called on his team to win them all. The Cardinals had just lost a demoralizing five-overtime road game to Notre Dame, capping a precipitous three-week fall that saw his team lose four of seven games and drop from #1 in the country all the way out of the top-10. While the Cardinals’ bout with the Irish was heralded by some as the game of the year for its suspense and intensity, Louisville fans shook their heads in resignation after their team choked away an eight-point lead in the final 45 seconds. The team hyped as the strongest national title contender in the Pitino era at Louisville couldn’t seem to generate enough offense outside of Russ Smith, couldn’t seem to generate the fast breaks it desperately needed, and couldn’t seem to close out games.

Chane Behanan was Montrezl Harrell’s biggest fan last Saturday, watching from the bench (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

So Pitino made an improbable request, and his team obliged. They built momentum by overwhelming St. John’s, Seton Hall, and DePaul; they subdued arch-rival Cincinnati and achieved redemption against Syracuse and Notre Dame. All the while, their glaring weaknesses slowly gave way to the singular strengths befitting a preseason consensus Final Four pick. The Cardinals’ backcourt, the sum of whose parts had yet to coalesce, came into form once Kevin Ware began playing extended stints at point guard, as he forced turnovers on defense and relieved Russ Smith of the fatigue of ball-handling duties while Peyton Siva was on the bench. Luke Hancock, the embattled James Madison transfer whose rusty early play drew groans even from press row in non-conference home games, quietly developed into a consistent 37% three-point marksman as his ailing shoulder strengthened. Gorgui Dieng fashioned himself into the Big East’s leading rebounder in conference play and proved he could still hit an elbow jumper despite the brace on his left wrist. All the while, the Cards forced opposing defenses to stretch ever further, opening driving opportunities for Siva after months of being thwarted by aggressive hedging and dense zones. Read the rest of this entry »

Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of RTC. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g. 

The Wolverines were riding high into the NCAA Tournament last year after winning a share of the Big Ten title but were shot out of the gym by John Groce’s Ohio squad in the Second Round. A year later, Michigan will start its postseason with some doubts against its first opponent, South Dakota State. Under the assumption that Trey Burke can give Nate Wolters fits on the defensive end and John Beilein’s team plays with a chip on its shoulder so as to not repeat last year’s debacle, it is likely that they will get past the Jackrabbits in Auburn Hills. But if they do get past them, their likely opponent in the next round will be the VCU Rams. Shaka Smart’s “havoc” defense strives on full-court pressure defense as the Rams force turnovers on 27.1% of their opponents’ possessions. Not since Nolan Richardson’s “40 minutes of hell” in the mid-90s have we seen a defense this intense in the full court, but the Wolverines can break it and turn the pressure into an advantage to get to the Sweet Sixteen. The following are a few key thoughts about this potential game.

Mitch McGary will need to be patient against the VCU press.

• Mitch McGary and Jordan Morgan will need to be patient at midcourt: The full-court press can be broken as long as there are multiple ball-handlers on the court. Most likely the guard initially inbounding the ball will be double-teamed so the Wolverines will need to move the ball laterally. If Burke and Nik Stauskas are trapped on the sidelines, McGary or Morgan will need to make themselves available at mid-court to receive the pass. They also need to make sure to avoid any moving screens amidst the chaos. Without a big man in the middle, it’ll be tough for Burke or Stauskas to break through the havoc. Morgan is experienced enough to be patient but McGary’s patience will be tested in his first weekend of NCAA Tournament experience.

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In last night’s opening round games, North Carolina A&T and St. Mary’s both advanced to the Round of 64, and two more games tonight will round out the field. Once again, tonight’s games will get under way at 6:40 PM tonight on truTV — here’s our analysis of tonight’s two games.

#16 LIU Brooklyn vs. #16 James Madison — East Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 6:40 PM ET on truTV.

LIU Brooklyn Will Depend on Its Transition Attack

Night two of the First Four begins with a game that will feature two vastly different style of basketball. LIU Brooklyn loves to play fast but unlike most up-tempo teams, the Blackbirds do not force many turnovers to fuel a transition attack. LIU shoots the ball very well, led by senior forward Jamal Olasewere and junior point guard Jason Brickman (a 46% three-point shooter). Olasewere operates primarily inside the arc but also isn’t afraid to step out and take an occasional triple. Brickman is a terrific assist man, averaging over eight dimes per game. He’s ranked #16 in assist rate nationally but is vulnerable to coughing it up as well, averaging four turnovers a night. Still, his 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic. James Madison has to focus on these players defensively along with C.J. Garner, who averages 16 PPG for a team that scores nearly 80 PPG on average. LIU’s offensive statistics are impressive but Jack Perri’s team doesn’t take defense, ahem, very seriously. The problem for James Madison is that it doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well to begin with, so it will have to slow the game down (easier than speeding it up) and limit LIU’s possessions. JMU is led by strong senior forward Rayshawn Goins who, at 6’6” and 266 lbs, is certainly a force to be reckoned with. Goins against Olasewere could be the key match-up in this game. Neither team has a lot of size but Olasewere is giving up about 40 pounds to the burly Duke. In the end, we feel LIU has enough offensive firepower despite its defensive issues to advance and play Indiana on Friday.

The RTC Certified Pick: LIU Brooklyn.

#13 Boise State vs. #13 La Salle – West Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) – 9:10 PM ET on TruTV

Jeff Elorriaga Will Be Bombing Away Tonight

These two underdogs will have the attention of the nation all to themselves as they fight to be included in the bulk of the bracket. And this game is definitely one to keep an eye on, as it may be one of the more entertaining contests you’ll see on this first weekend of play. Both teams are guard-dominated, both teams shoot the three regularly and with great proficiency, and both teams will get out in transition when they have the opportunities. For La Salle, the backcourt trio of Ramon Galloway, Tyreek Duren and Tyrone Garland combine to average 44.9 points and 9.1 assists between them and shoot a collective 37.4% from deep. Meanwhile, Boise’s trio of Anthony Drmic, Derrick Marks and Jeff Elorriaga combine to average 43.9 points, 8.4 assists and a collective 41.8% clip from behind the arc. Those guys go a long way toward cancelling each other out, in which case the game may come down to the frontcourts, where the Broncos have the advantage. While the Explorers are largely ineffective in controlling the glass, Boise is the third-best team in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Forwards Ryan Watkins and Kenny Buckner are particularly good in that area but it is a full-team effort, as even the guards chip in to clean the glass. In a game where both teams have perimeter players to put the ball in the hoop, the dirty work up front may turn out to be the difference.

The RTC Certified Pick: Boise State

With the NCAA Tournament officially underway as of last night’s game between North Carolina A&T and Liberty — although, let’s be honest, things don’t really begin to heat up until Thursday afternoon — we are unveiling the Official RTC Bracket today. Up first are the South and East Regions with the Midwest and West Regions to follow later this afternoon. Prior to revealing the picks, some quick analysis, and four questions to our bracket experts, here’s our methodology.

The inspiration behind the bracket largely comes from our weekly Blogpoll where a number of ballots from key contributors are combined to form a single Top 25. Rather than have eight people put their heads together and collectively fill out the bracket, we asked each to select their own bracket. Afterward, those selections were tallied up and the team with the majority vote in each slot is the one picked to advance below. As an example, you will notice that in the #8 vs. #9 game in the South Region, North Carolina was picked to advance in seven of eight brackets — hence the 88% tally next to the Tar Heels’ name. Deeper into the bracket, you may wonder how it’s possible for Kansas to advance past Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen with just 50% of the brackets choosing the Jayhawks, but that’s because three brackets had Michigan and one bracket had VCU, thereby giving Kansas the edge.

Here’s the first half of the 2013 Official RTC Bracket:

Quick Hitters From the South Region

• Advancing to Atlanta: #3 Florida
• Round of 64 Upset: #11 Minnesota over #6 UCLA
• Later Round Upsets: #3 Florida over #2 Georgetown in the Sweet Sixteen and #3 Florida over #1 Kansas in the Elite Eight
• Three Most Disputed Games: #11 Minnesota over #6 UCLA, #4 Michigan over #5 VCU, #1 Kansas over #4 Michigan

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Kansas overcame a three-game losing streak in February and a blowout loss to Baylor in its regular season finale to earn the second overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Jayhawks were given no gifts by the selection committee. Stat geek extraordinaire Nate Silver gives Kansas a 31.6% chance of making the Final Four, the lowest of all the #1 seeds (Louisville was given a 52.9% chance in the Midwest Region, by comparison) and six percentage points lower than the #3 seed in its own South region, Florida. The Gators are #1 at KenPom and #3 in the Sagarin rankings, largely because of their number of blowout wins and close losses this season. Their seven losses were by a combined 4.8 PPG. Their wins, however, were massive. They beat NCAA Tournament teams Wisconsin, Marquette, Missouri, and Middle Tennessee State by a combined 27.5 PPG. As Silver points out, every Gators’ win this season was by 10 points or more. Florida’s survival  — and ultimately Kansas’ too — will come down to which team the Gators really are. If the close losses were mostly a product of luck, as many stats lovers will say, the Gators are the favorite in the South region. If they are a team that continues to struggle with execution down the stretch in close games, the bracket favors Kansas. But Kansas’ tough road begins long before a potential Elite Eight showdown with Florida, as North Carolina could be waiting for the Jayhawks in the Round of 64. The Tarheels are 24-10 and lost six ACC regular season games, so they aren’t drastically underseeded. But a closer look at their resume makes you think they aren’t your normal tune up for a #1 seed prepping for the Sweet Sixteen, either.

Bill Self and Roy Williams Could Meet For The Third Time In Six Tournaments. (Chris Neal, University Daily Kansan)

• Six of their 10 losses came against Indiana (#1 seed), Duke and Miami (#2 seeds).
• Only two losses this year came against non-NCAA Tournament teams: Texas and Virginia.
• Since Roy Williams inserted sophomore guard P.J. Hairston into the starting lineup at small forward, the Tar Heels are 8-3 with their only losses coming to Duke and Miami. At 6’5″, Hairston at at the four creates a match-up problem for any team with his 38.9% shooting from deep.

History tells us that the #1 seed will much more often than not make the Sweet Sixteen. And assuming Kansas makes it to Arlington, that’s where their tough path begins to take shape. They will likely face #4 seed Michigan or #5 seed VCU in this game. VCU has been a sexy pick to knock off the Jayhawks this week, and on the surface, the upset pick makes sense. The Rams are 25-2 this year against teams with a turnover percentage higher than 18%, but only 1-5 against teams that turn the ball over less than 18% of the time. Kansas is in the Havoc danger zone at 19.9%. Michigan, however, leads the nation in turnover percentage at 14.3%. With National Player of the Year candidate Trey Burke in the backcourt, it’s hard to imagine the VCU pressure affecting Michigan nearly so much. The Rams could go a long way if they knock out the Wolverines in that round, but I wouldn’t count on it. That’s probably why Nate Silver gives VCU just a 25.4% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen while Michigan has a 66% chance of winning two games. So while Jayhawk fans might want a piece of revenge after VCU kept KU out of the Final Four in 2011, they should be singing ‘Hail To The Victors’ in the Round of 32.

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We’re approximately 24 hours ahead of the opening tip from the field of 64, and the RTC Podcast crew has spent some time putting together a short preview podblast for each of the four NCAA regions. We invited four of our correspondents to the party to help us work through the brackets — Brian Otskey (@botskey) for the East Region, Kevin Doyle (@kldoyle11) for the South Region, Bennet Hayes (@hoopstraveler) for the Midwest Region, and Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) for the West Region.  We may not nail every one of our picks, but we had a blast recording these and hope you enjoy listening to our coverage on these four ‘blasts.

East Region

South Region

Midwest Region

West Region

We’ll bring everyone back next week to look forward to the regionals. Happy March Madness!

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

Midwest Region

• Even though his team will be playing close to home this weekend in Lexington, Louisville coach Rick Pitino stressed that there is no homecourt advantage in the NCAA Tournament.
• Colorado State big man Colton Iverson will be a load for Missouri to handle in the post. Iverson enters the NCAA Tournament averaging 14.7 points and 9.8 points per game.
• The stunning upset loss to 15-seed Norfolk State in the last season’s NCAA Tournament is not on the minds of Missouri as it prepares for this season’s event.
• Though he is just a freshman, star Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart provides the Cowboys with much-needed toughness and leadership.
• Michael Berk of KGW NewsChannel 8 in Portland believes Oregon should use the national outrage over its 12-seed to its advantage as it prepares for its Round of 64 match-up with Oklahoma State.
• It seems as if the nation fell in love with Saint Louis during its victorious Atlantic 10 Tournament performance, so now the Billikens are working hard to ignore distractions and remain focused as they get ready for their first game against New Mexico State.
• New Mexico State guard Terrel de Rouen‘s competitiveness and tenacity has allowed him to recover from a torn ACL suffered last season to become a key player for the Aggies in his sophomore season.
• While in preparation for its Round of 64 game against Valparaiso on Monday, Michigan State coach Tom Izzo dismissed assistant coach Dane Fife from the building as Fife’s wife was preparing to give birth to the couple’s second child. Fife’s wife, Blair, gave birth to a daughter Tuesday morning at Sparrow Hospital in Lansing.
• The more Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin watches tape of Creighton standout Doug McDermott, the more impressed he is with the All-American junior. Cronin said of McDermott, “He can single-handedly beat you. He can get on a roll and give you 30 or 40 any night.”
• Mindful of last season’s loss to 15-seed Lehigh, Duke understands that it cannot afford to overlook 15-seed Albany in this season’s NCAA Tournament.

West Region

• Gonzaga forward Elias Harris has had an outstanding four-year career in Spokane. The senior is hoping that he will finish his Gonzaga career playing in the Final Four.
• The reality at times of Pittsburgh’s past weak performances in the NCAA Tournament often puts coach Jamie Dixon on the defensive. He loathes the suggestion that his teams have underachieved in the Big Dance, “We’ve won a lot of games in the Tournament. Only five teams have been to more Sweet Sixteens than we have. They don’t give you byes into the Sweet Sixteen.”
• Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall had modest goals for this season – to win 20 games and possibly sneak into a postseason tournament. Luckily for Marshall and the Shockers, his team was able to surpass both these goals and earn a bid to the NCAAs.
• Wisconsin guard Ben Brust commented on the high possibility that Ole Miss guard Marshall Henderson will talk trash to him and his teammates during Friday’s game by saying, “I don’t even know how to talk trash. I think I’ve learned throughout my years, in one ear and out the other and just let my play do the talking.”
• Kansas State guard Shane Southwell can give the Wildcats a scoring punch from the perimeter, but he has struggled with consistency as of late. The junior guard is looking to find a rhythm to give his team a boost in the NCAA Tournament.
• Guard play is going to be a major factor in Wednesday night’s First Four match-up between La Salle and Boise State.
• There has been some national talk about Arizona potentially being an upset victim in the Round of 64, but the Wildcats are trying to avoid that talk as they gear up to face Belmont on Thursday.
• Harvard freshman guard Siyani Chambers has made an immediate impact for the Crimson. The point guard was named Ivy League Freshman of the Year and was placed on the league’s all-Ivy first team.
• After being considered a bubble team for much of the latter part of the regular season, Iowa State guard Korie Lucious and the rest of the Cyclones are “happy to still be playing this time of year.”
• Bob Baptist of the Columbus Dispatch writes that Ohio State‘s Tournament fate hinges on defensive dedication. The Buckeyes have defensive standouts Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott on their roster, but they are going to need their other players to step up.

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