Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are in the final stretch before conference tournaments tip off and there are several key match-ups this week that will help to determine not only postseason seeds but regular season titles. Let’s not waste any time and get to the breakdowns!

Indiana at Michigan State – 7:00 PM EST, Tuesday on ESPN (*****)

How does Tom Izzo stop Indiana’s Victor Olidipo from lighting up the Spartans again?

• It doesn’t get any bigger than this game this week, as the Hoosiers and the Spartans battle for sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. Michigan State faces a gauntlet of games as it goes up against Indiana at home, Ohio State and Michigan on the road, and then back home against Wisconsin. It is highly unlikely that they will get through the next four unscathed, so this first game at home is crucial if they want to win a regular season Big Ten crown. In the teams’ previous game this season, IU defeated MSU 75-70 in Bloomington. Tom Izzo’s squad turned the ball over too many times, couldn’t hit their two-point shots, and didn’t get to the free throw line enough. Since then, the Spartans have won five straight and are looking better and better each game. They are being led by point guard Keith Appling. Appling is averaging 16.4 points per game in their current five-game winning streak, since going 1-of-4 with three points in the loss to IU. Appling will once again be a key factor as the Spartans will need his scoring and play-making abilities. Izzo will also need his defense to figure out a way to stop Indiana’s Victor Olidipo. Olidipo torched the Spartans last time out for 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting. If Indiana is allowed to go 19-of-32 again from inside the paint, Michigan State will struggle to find a way to win. The Spartans need a better defensive effort on the interior and better rebounding if they are going to overtake the Hoosiers for the Big Ten lead.

  Virginia at Miami (FL) – 9:00 PM EST, Tuesday on ESPNU (****)

• While Miami remains undefeated in the ACC and is aiming for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney, they face two tough tests the remainder of the season against Virginia at home and against Duke on the road. The Cavaliers have been anything but road warriors in the ACC (2-4), but they present a tough match-up because of their ability to shoot the ball, especially from three. Keep a close on Virginia’s Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell. If they are to knock off the Hurricanes, these two players must have very big games. If UVA is still without 6’11” Mike Tobey (mononucleosis), scoring on the interior will be tough against Miami’s 6’11” Kenny Kadji and 6’10” Reggie Johnson. The three-point shot is a significant part of the Cavaliers’ offense, so pay close attention to their effort early from beyond the arc. If they can stay in the game with some made threes, they will have a shot to win it in the end. However, the Hurricanes play lockdown perimeter defense too. This is a tall task for the Cavaliers, but it will still be an interesting match-up nonetheless.

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Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Mountain West Conference.

Conference Round-up

As we look forward to the Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas in just three weeks from now, we can also begin to look forward to future MW tourneys there, as this past week the conference announced that it approved a deal to keep the conference tourney in the Thomas & Mack Center for at least three more years after this March. And while the conference, fans, and media are all pleased, there are plenty of Mountain West coaches who, though unsurprised, are not happy with this arrangement. Steve Alford and Larry Shyatt are just two of the coaches who have gone on record opposing having to play for the league’s automatic bid on the home court of league rival UNLV, but with the MW Tourney having previously flopped in Denver and now an unmitigated success in Las Vegas (for example, this year the conference reports record ticket sales), odds are strong that the tournament location won’t be changing anytime soon.

The Thomas & Mack Center Will Be The Home Of The Mountain West Tournament For The Foreseeable Future (AP)

As for this year’s tourney, now that we finally have some separation at the top of the conference, it looks like a two team race for the #1 seed in Vegas come March. With San Diego State dropping a pair of games and UNLV getting bitten by Air Force on the road, New Mexico and Colorado State now sit atop the conference standings, three games in the loss column ahead of UNLV, SDSU and Air Force. While this weekend’s game between those two at Fort Collins will go a long way towards determining that winner, we’ve still got a lot of basketball to play.

Reader’s Take

Team of the Week

Colorado State – The Rams got a big final minute from Dorian Green on Wednesday night to knock off San Diego State in Fort Collins, then went on the road Saturday and held on for a rare road win over Air Force. Larry Eustachy’s bunch is still making its hay by dominating teams on the glass; they haven’t had an offensive rebound percentage lower than 35% since January 2, and they’re regularly turning those second chance opportunities into points, putting the Rams in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency. And yet, despite perhaps the best rebounding team in memory, a rotation loaded with experienced seniors, and a six-game winning streak (as well as 27 home wins in a row), for some reason people are still a little leery about this team. Nevertheless, if they can extend that home winning streak to 28 on Saturday night against New Mexico, regardless of what happens tomorrow night at UNLV, the Rams should be the conference favorite.

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Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of Rush The Court. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.

The Big Ten has been so competitive this season that we have been spoiled with match-ups between top-20 teams frequently during the weeknights. A quick glance through the schedule for the week and you realize that tonight’s game between Michigan State and Indiana features two teams ranked in the top five of the polls and the winner should have the upper hand for the conference title and a #1 seed in March. The Hoosiers controlled the tempo during their first game in Bloomington as they won 75-70, as the Spartans were handicapped for most of it because Keith Appling couldn’t stay out of foul trouble. Indiana’s game against Michigan was well-hyped by the national media because of ESPN Gameday in town for the event, but the second game of the season between two top-five teams from the B1G is no slouch. Folks in the Midwest will need to make sure they get out of work early to prepare for the early tip-off (6:00 PM CST) but as we wait for tonight’s action, the following is a list of key questions about this week’s version of the big game.

Keith Appling needs to stay on the floor if the Spartans hope to beat the Hoosiers tonight.(Paul Abell/US Presswire)

1. How will the injuries affect each team? Victor Oladipo didn’t play much against Purdue on Saturday because he sprained his ankle, but the Hoosiers didn’t really need his services against a young Boilermaker squad. Oladipo will need to be nearly 100% for the game in East Lansing because he is the Hoosiers’ best on-ball defender and can help keep Appling from penetrating into the paint. It is tough to keep the point guard out of the paint during the final minutes of games (ask the Jayhawks and the Illini), but Oladipo is probably the only defender in the conference not named Aaron Craft who can make it happen. Oladipo’s quick hands were at work during the first match-up as he stole the ball six times and pulled down seven rebounds. Without their senior at 100%, Indiana’s transition game won’t be as efficient but it is likely that he will still find a way to be effective. On the flip side, Appling needs to stay on the floor and try to avoid the reaches on defense that caused him to pick up some early fouls in Bloomington. Backup point guard Travis Trice’s status is still uncertain for the game but even if he were to play, he may not be as effective because it may take some time for him to get used to the pace after sitting out the past few days. Trice played 30 minutes at the point in Bloomington but was hounded by the half-court pressure as he turned the ball over five times despite dishing out five assists. Freshman guard Denzel Valentine has provided the back-up point guard duties in Trice’s absence but he isn’t very comfortable handling the ball against pressure. Sharpshooter Gary Harris has played through back spasms during the past week but his nagging injury could make a comeback during the game, which could affect his long-range shooting. If the Spartans want to stay in this game without turning the ball over too many times, Appling will need to play at least 35 minutes tonight. Read the rest of this entry »

Michael Vernetti is the RTC correspondent for the West Coast Conference.

Looking Back

Then There Was One: Gonzaga romped past its most challenging week in WCC play, throttling Saint Mary’s, 77-60, and holding off San Francisco, 71-61, and left little drama for the remainder of the conference season. The Zags have a moderately difficult game in Provo on February 28 against BYU, following what should be two routine wins at home against Santa Clara and San Diego, and one could make a case that BYU will be desperate for a season-saving win. Even if BYU pulls off the upset, however, it will be too late to do the Zags any harm, either to their conference standing or their national reputation. The win over Saint Mary’s gave them an effective two-game lead (the Zags have a final game on March 2 against barely-competitive Portland to bring their conference record in line with Saint Mary’s), and it would take a monumental collapse to overcome that. Not going to happen.

Kelly Olynyk was his usual dominant self against the Gaels. (USA Today)

Although it ended in anti-climax with the Zags outscoring the Gaels 21-8 over the last six minutes after Saint Mary’s pulled to within four at 56-52 on a Matthew Dellavedova three-pointer, the Saint Mary’s-Gonzaga contest was not without its drama. For one thing the setting was college basketball tension at its best, with a packed and fevered McKeon Pavilion urging on the Gaels. As Saint Mary’s fought back from an early deficit behind Dellavedova’s 19 first-half points, the building seemed about to explode when Jordan Guisti’s three-pointer gave Saint Mary’s its first lead, 33-30, with less than two seconds left in the half. It would have made an interesting scientific experiment: How much noise can a crowd of some 3,500 crammed into a smallish gymnasium create? There was no personal conversation possible, just a wall of ear-thumping sound reverberating in the building.

The Gaels would take a one-point lead into the break after two Kevin Pangos free throws, but in the end it was too much Kelly Olynyk, whose 17 points and seven rebounds do not adequately describe his dominance. Olynyk had his hands on seemingly every rebound, batted ball and misdirected pass in the game, keeping offensive sets alive, disrupting passing lanes and scoring when necessary. He was, literally, larger than life in Moraga and that meant death for the Gaels and their chances of defending their WCC championship of a year ago.

Reader’s Take

Power Rankings

1. Gonzaga (12-0, 25-2): The Zags will be forgiven if they were watching for the two national polls on Monday, as they had a chance to move up in both the AP and USA Today/Coaches Polls. They did move up on AP, from five to three, but held at three in the USA Today poll. All of college basketball was watching the Saint Mary’s game to judge the Zags in a difficult situation, and their performance should have removed all doubts.  Read the rest of this entry »

As we’re now fewer than four weeks from Selection Sunday, it’s always fun to start speculating about resumes of teams on the bubble. On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch (Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons) or his weekly Bracketology (Fridays), he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to compare. Today, he offers up a couple of bubble teams that have made considerable news in the past week as to their placement (in or out). Here are their blind resumes:

Team A

• Record: 18-7
• Conference Record:  8-4 (major conference)
• RPI: 77
• SOS: 181
• BPI: 45
• Sagarin: 35
• KenPom: 19
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-1
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 6-1
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 12-6

Team B

• Record: 17-8
• Conference Record:  8-4 (major conference)
• RPI: 44
• SOS: 50
• BPI: 39
• Sagarin: 20
• KenPom: 29
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 0-4
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 5-8
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 12-0

The two teams are revealed after the jump…

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Brian Otskey is an RTC columnist. Every Tuesday during the regular season he’ll be giving his 10 thoughts on the previous week’s action. You can find him on Twitter @botskey

1. As we hit the stretch run of the college basketball season, tight conference races begin to captivate the nation. There are terrific regular season title races going on in a bunch of conferences, including the Atlantic 10, Big 12, Pac-12 and Big Ten but the best race is happening in the Big East. In the conference’s final season as we have come to know it, three teams are tied atop the league standings at 9-3 heading into Tuesday’s action with three more nipping at their heels. It’s only fitting that two of the Big East’s heavyweight rivals, Syracuse and Georgetown, are among the group at 9-3. Joining them is an upstart Marquette team, picked seventh in the 15-team conference. Right behind the leaders is a team some seem to have forgotten about at 9-4, the Louisville Cardinals. Notre Dame at 9-5 after an important win at Pittsburgh last night and 7-5 Connecticut round out the teams within two games in the loss column. The great thing about this race is the best games are still to come. Syracuse and Georgetown hook up twice down the stretch, including on the final day of the regular season. The Orange have the toughest schedule with the aforementioned games against the Hoyas plus a trip to Marquette and a visit to the Carrier Dome from Louisville still on tap. Marquette plays four of its final six games on the road beginning this evening but gets Syracuse and Notre Dame at home where the Golden Eagles have won 23-straight games since a loss to Vanderbilt last season. Luckily for Marquette, its four road games are against a hit-and-miss Villanova team, St. John’s and two of the teams near the bottom of the league standings. It’s never easy to win on the road but Marquette has a somewhat favorable schedule. In the end, my money would be on a 13-5 logjam between Syracuse, Georgetown and Louisville with tiebreakers determining the team that gets the top seed at Madison Square Garden next month.
   

   Otto Porter and Georgetown will have a say in the Big East title race (M. Sullivan/Reuters)

2. For the final time this Saturday, ESPN’s BracketBusters event will pit non-power league teams against one another, some in major need of a resume-building win as the regular season begins to wind down. Denver against Northern Iowa and Ohio at Belmont are solid matchups but the best game by far is Creighton visiting St. Mary’s on Saturday.The Bluejays have lost five of their past nine games heading into tonight’s game with Southern Illinois, one they should win, after a 17-1 start to the season. Quality non-conference wins against Wisconsin, Arizona State and California (all away from Omaha), plus a good home win over a solid Akron club, have Creighton in a pretty good spot for a bid relative to other teams in the mix. The problem for Greg McDermott’s squad is that it hasn’t done much of anything in calendar year 2013. The good news for Creighton is the NCAA Selection Committee says wins in November and December mean just as much as February and March. As long as Creighton splits its upcoming games with St. Mary’s and Wichita State, I feel that should be good enough to merit an NCAA berth no matter what happens in the Missouri Valley Tournament. As for St. Mary’s, it is even more desperate. The only semblance of a quality win on the Gaels’ resume are wins at BYU and Santa Clara, the former coming thanks to Matthew Dellavedova’s miracle buzzer beater in Provo. To have a chance at the NCAA’s I feel St. Mary’s has to beat Creighton and run the West Coast table while making the finals of the conference tournament. There just isn’t enough meat on its resume to justify a bid despite having one of the nation’s strongest offensive attacks. Read the rest of this entry »

Exactly 26 days from now, brackets for the NCAA Tournament, NIT, and CBI will be revealed on Selection Sunday. In this piece, we’ll put together where each Pac-12 team fits into the picture as of today. To see last week’s projections, click here.

*Conference Champ

Definitely Dancing: Despite their recent struggles, both Arizona and Oregon remain locks at this point. I have the Wildcats a tad lower on the S-curve than most prognosticators, but they get to go to either Salt Lake City or San Jose instead of being shipped back east. Nothing is very special about their first round opponent, Stony Brook. The Seawolves, who I project to win the America East, currently sit at 19-6 and have notable seven- and one-point losses in games at Maryland and Seton Hall, respectively. Oregon cannot do anything to play itself out of the field of 68 thanks to its road sweep of the Washington schools. The Ducks have a great shot at winning the regular season championship, as they are already a full game up on UCLA and don’t play a team currently in the upper third of the league from here on out. Being the lowest #5 seed on the board, Dana Altman’s squad gets Virginia, the top #12 seed, in their NCAA opener. The Wahoos have won seven of their last nine and are rising on mock brackets everywhere pretty quickly.

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Jesse Baumgartner is an RTC columnist. His Love/Hate column will publish each week throughout the season. In this piece he’ll review the five things he loved and hated about the previous seven days of college basketball.

Five Things I Loved This Week

I LOVED…. Minnesota coach Tubby Smith. Please watch this video, and tell me how anyone can not love Tubby as he breaks it down with moves that men his age should not be attempting. If he ever gets a miraculous title with the Golden Gophers, all will be right with the world.

I LOVED…. an unexpected dunk attempt. When North Carolina’s toothpick point guard Marcus Paige waltzed into the lane against Virginia on Saturday, an educated guess said he would be going for his normal finger roll. Instead, the freshman rose up with bad intentions and tried to throw down over the Cavaliers’ big men at the cup. Did he succeed? Of course not. He’s like 110 pounds and the ball went flying over the rim. But you have to like the kid who is willing to dream big.

I LOVED…. Mike Krzyzewski‘s succinct opinion on whether Duke will be scheduling an annual game with Maryland after the Terps flee the ACC for the Big Ten — in a word, nope. This is funny on a number of levels, but mainly because it brilliantly reinforces Duke’s opinion that Maryland is not a rival. This has driven Maryland fans nuts for years (much as NC State tries to paint UNC as its main rival, when the Duke rivalry is obviously much bigger). Coach K is nothing if not crafty, and he knew just how to throw a departing barb at the turtles as they plod out of the conference (though their win on Saturday will leave them with some fond memories, as well).

I LOVED…. Ben McLemore‘s nasty 360 dunk against Texas on Saturday. For a guy with a quiet, smooth demeanor on the court who thrives on sneakily dominating a game, this was a raw display of athleticism and power that we haven’t always seen. I always respect the 360 decision, because you’re willing to take the risk that you’ll be No. 1 on the “Not Top-10” list if anything goes wrong. Read the rest of this entry »

Mark Selig is the RTC correspondent for the Colonial Athletic Association. You can find more of his written work at jamesmadison.rivals.com or on Twitter @MarkRSelig.

Spotlight On…

Diagramming A Winner: It was featured on SportsCenter under the header “Small School Buzzer-Beaters,” but JMU coach Matt Brady didn’t see a replay of his team’s game-winning alley-oop against Delaware until Monday morning, long after his team arrived back in town after a four-hour bus ride home that was undoubtedly more pleasant because of said play (fast-forward to 2:04):

We do have an end-of-the shot-clock lob play for whoever may be on the court – typically it’s Andre Nation – but knowing that they would have it scouted or that they could have guarded it with just one defender, out of the timeout we kind of changed that play around. We took everybody from the strong-side, the ball-side of the court – we took them out of the play. We had Rayshawn [Goins] duck in on the weakside block, the block farthest from the ball. Most importantly, we had A.J. [Davis] start inside of Andre Nation towards the baseline, and we wanted to wrap him away from the ball and back around the corner that was empty, in hopes that it would draw attention. And to be honest with you, I didn’t see the play until [assistant coach] Rob O’Driscoll showed it to me this morning. It seemed to draw a lot of attention. It worked the kids executed it well. I think the underrated part of the whole play, to be honest with you, wasn’t the design of the play or the finish or A.J.’s hard cut. Really, [it was] the pass. Until I saw it this morning – it was a fabulous pass. It was not an easy play. And it’s not something Devon [Moore] always wants to do because he’s sometimes leery of a turnover, but in that situation he’s interested and eager to make the pass. But in that situation, what a great pass.

It was Kyle Anderson guarding Andre Nation. So I don’t know if we necessarily even needed to wrap A.J., but we wanted to do that to create some confusion. And I do think when A.J. wrapped, it actually pulled Kyle Anderson from in front of Andre Nation guarding the rim. They went to switch. They went to switch and they both ended up behind. But the most interesting part of the play, and Rob showed it to me again this morning, was that immediately upon Andre Nation’s dunk, Kyle Anderson gave Devon Saddler a death stare, like, ‘You son of a gun, I can’t believe you missed that!’ They were supposed to switch, but that’s why we did what we did.

Andre Nation really had the easiest part of the play. He’s gonna get all the credit, but really, the credit should go to A.J. and Devon.

I didn’t get the chance to speak with Kyle Anderson about the miscommunication, but Saddler made it seem like it was Anderson’s fault, saying that he didn’t switch when he was supposed to. That’s for UD head coach Monte Ross to sort out. The Dukes are just happy their clutch lob worked so perfectly.

Power Rankings

This week, we spend ample time celebrating the league’s top talents, but this week’s power poll will focus on X-Factors – the players whose teams’ success hinges on their production from game to game:

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The Ben Howland timeout. You know the reputation — they come at random times, more often stopping a UCLA run than bringing any benefit to his team, leaving the Bruins without any timeouts for the stretch run. I’ve said it myself plenty of times, but then in poking around the issue last week, I couldn’t find any good factual analysis interpreting Howland’s timeout pattern and the results. So, I did it myself. And here are the facts, based only on this season, with details to follow: Ben Howland makes pretty darn good use of his timeouts.

Ben Howland’s Apparently Random Use Of Timeouts Has Perplexed UCLA Fans (Harry How, Getty Images)

Before we get into the hard numbers, here’s the method to my madness. I only looked at timeouts called by UCLA prior to the four-minute mark in the second half and I excluded any timeout in the final minute of the first half as well, figuring those timeouts are almost universally accepted as a “normal” usage of timeouts. Using that group of timeouts (there have been 77 this season over 26 games), I looked at a few things: the total score for each team’s possession following that timeout; the total run prior to the timeout; and, the total run after the timeout. Defining a run is a bit more perilous, but I limited it to consecutive possessions with points scored by one team, while allowing for one possession without a score provided that team’s opponent does not score. In other words, if both teams failed to score on the first possession following a timeout, there is no run recorded. So, two UCLA possessions and two hoops mixed in with two opponent possessions with one hoop equals a 4-2 UCLA run and three UCLA possessions with two hoops coupled with three opponent possessions with no hoops equals a 4-0 UCLA run. Also, any timeout, media or otherwise, ends a run, and any free throws interrupted by a timeout get counted with the run.

So, with the methodology out of the way, here are the numbers. In the 74 UCLA offensive possessions following a UCLA timeout, the Bruins are scoring 1.42 points per possession, while they are giving up just 0.94 points on average in the 68 opponent possessions following a timeout. Prior to a UCLA timeout, in runs over the course of 179 possessions, the Bruins are being outscored 1.82 PPP to 0.67 PPP, an amazing differential of 1.15 PPP. Conversely, in runs following Bruin timeouts, UCLA is scoring 1.55 PPP and allowing 0.85 PPP (differential = 0.70 PPP). Also notable is that Howland called nine timeouts immediately following a UCLA basket, something Bill Walton has notably pointed out as problematic in several ESPN broadcasts.

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