RTC Official Bubble Watch: 02.17.10
Posted by zhayes9 on February 17th, 2010RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
Another week gone by in college basketball, another snapshot of the bubble picture provided…
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple
Xavier (21 RPI, 19 SOS)- The Musketeers are bordering on lock status after their enormous bubble win at Florida last Saturday. The only factor preventing such an accolade is the lack of quality non-conference wins. They played Baylor, Butler and Wake Forest extremely tight, yet could only come out on the winning end against Cincinnati and the aforementioned Florida game. Xavier has beaten Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island at home. Win at Charlotte on Saturday and the Musketeers should be in. Current seed range: 6-8.
Rhode Island (22 RPI, 37 SOS)– URI could be the highest-RPI team left out of the bracket if they don’t start picking up quality wins to boost their resume. Winning one of their two nail-biter home defeats at the hands of Temple and Richmond would have been enormous for their NCAA hopes. Fortunately, they only face two threatening games the rest of the way- at St. Louis Wednesday night and vs. Charlotte on March 3. There’s a very realistic chance the Rams could win out and receive a bid, but they won’t have another chance against an RPI top-25 opponent until the A-10 tournament. Current seed range: 10-11.
Richmond (27 RPI, 49 SOS)– Other than Temple, the Spiders have the most impressive portfolio of any Atlantic 10 team. They picked up neutral court wins over bubble teams Mississippi State, Missouri and Florida in non-conference play and are currently riding a six-game winning streak in A-10 play with wins over Temple and at Rhode Island mixed in. They’re 4-2 vs. the RPI top 50 and currently lead the conference with a 9-2 record. Win just one of their last three- at Xavier, Dayton, at Charlotte- and the Spiders will be dancing. Current seed range: 7-8.
Dayton (34 RPI, 33 SOS)– The Flyers put themselves back into a precarious position by falling in heartbreak fashion at St. Louis on Saturday. They’re just 1-5 vs. RPI top 25 opponents but do have two solid wins in non-conference play over Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Dayton still must travel to Temple and Richmond on their A-10 slate; split those two games and they’re in decent position, lose both and the Flyers could be 1-7 vs. RPI top 25 teams and squarely on the bubble at 21-9 (10-6). Current seed range: 11-12.
Charlotte (41 RPI, 117 SOS)– All in all, the 49ers are in a solid position for a bid. The win at Louisville looks stronger now that the Cardinals are in the field, plus Charlotte knocked off Temple at home and Richmond on the road during conference play. They welcome Xavier and Richmond to Charlotte and also must travel to Rhode Island in three of their last six games. Finish 4-2 in that stretch and it’s going to be awfully hard to deny a bid to a 12-4 Atlantic 10 squad. Current seed range: 10-11.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech (29 RPI, 14 SOS)– With road games remaining at Maryland and at Clemson, it’s likely the Yellow Jackets finish ACC play at a pedestrian 8-8 record. Still, it’s going to be hard to put them on the bubble with five wins over the RPI top 50 (possibly six if Virginia Tech jumps into that category and they beat the Hokies at home on March 6) including victories over Duke, Wake Forest and Clemson. Just stealing one of those road contests would make it a near certainty Paul Hewitt is back dancing. Current seed: 8-9.
Clemson (32 RPI, 31 SOS)– I wouldn’t feel at ease if I’m a Clemson fan. The Tigers may have stellar computer numbers, but their best win out of the ACC was Butler in November and their best in-conference victory came over Maryland at home. Couple that with a brutal stretch in their last four games- at Maryland, at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest- and their reputation for fading down the stretch, and it could be a more nervous Selection Sunday than anticipated. The Georgia Tech home game is of great importance. Would a 20-10 (8-8) record push the Tigers into the Dance? Most likely, yes. Current seed range: 9-10.
Maryland (42 RPI, 28 SOS)– The Terrapins still don’t boast an RPI top-25 win and their best win in non-conference play was at Indiana, but Maryland still stands at about the 8/9 seed range due to their impressive 7-3 ACC mark and a sweep of Florida State. The Terps still have to face likely-NCAA teams Georgia Tech, Clemson, Duke and Virginia Tech the rest of the way, but only the meeting with the Hokies is away from College Park. With trips to NC State and Virginia also sprinkled in, no game is a definite win. They need to keep picking up victories in conference play to mask an underwhelming portfolio overall. Current seed range: 8-9.
Florida State (43 RPI, 53 SOS)– FSU probably has the easiest slate of any ACC bubble-in team. The three road games remaining feature a grand total of zero teams with hopes of making the NCAA Tournament in Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Florida State also welcomes Clemson and Wake Forest to Tallahassee. Go 3-2 at the very least during that stretch and the Seminoles should be set for a bid. Leonard Hamilton’s team picked up a non-conference win over Marquette, swept Georgia Tech and beat Virginia Tech this season. Current seed range: 8-10.
Virginia Tech (44 RPI, 180 SOS)- Virginia Tech picked up their first win over an RPI-top 25 opponent last night in their comeback victory over Wake Forest. It’s impossible to overstate how gigantic pulling out that win was- fall to Wake at home and they’re likely back on the wrong side of the bubble at fourth in the ACC with a low-100’s SOS and their best non-conference win over Seton Hall. Now the Hokies are edging themselves further into the field at 21-4 (8-3). All they have to do is take care of their three winnable games at Boston College and home vs. Maryland and NC State and they should be fine at 24-6 (11-5). Current seed range: 9-10.