College basketball teams play each other before the season starts. It’s not really a secret. Over the years it’s become increasingly public knowledge that teams will often travel to other schools to test their mettle in private, away from the prying eyes of the curious public and hungry media. It makes sense, and I think it’s kind of a great thing. Wouldn’t you want your team to play a game in private before you took to a big public stage? I know I would. Jeff Goodman has rounded up a list of these private scrimmages and there are more than a few ACC teams taking part.

Georgetown And North Carolina Played An Amazing Game in 2007 And An Even Better One In 1982. Who Wouldn't Want to See Them Play in 2011?

Friday, October 28
East Carolina at North Carolina State.

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To be honest, on average, the graduation rates for men’s college basketball players have  increased everywhere. To be completely honest, the graduation rates for student-athletes as a whole have improved. Still, let’s take a minute and appreciate how this trend holds up in the Atlantic Coast Conference: All in all, basketball players are graduating at better rates that they once did in the ACC, and at a rate that’s better than the national average for men’s college basketball players. So, that’s something.

But is it the whole story? No, but since the NCAA loves nothing if not thorough documentation, we can get at least get a clearer view of the story. The NCAA Graduation Success Rate (GSR) is a modified version of a rolling measure called the Federal Graduation Rate (FGR). The Federal Graduation Rate for a given year is the percentage of an incoming freshmen class that graduates at that institution within six years of entry, averaged with the three classes that preceded it. The FGR does not count any player who transferred to another university and graduated or otherwise left the university. The NCAA’s measure, GSR, tries to account for the fact that lots of athletes transfer to other universities, and, at least in a few sports, enter the professional leagues. So, in short, the GSR is in some ways, an inflated version of the Federal Graduation Rate, where an athlete can get counted as “graduated” as long as they leave the university in good academic standing. It almost makes sense, but since it’s the NCAA’s preferred metric, we’ll roll with it.  (ed. note: see our previous article this morning for Matt’s take on the value of graduation rates to the NCAA)

Now, because of the six year window that both rates use to count graduation, the numbers that were released this year deal with the players who entered a given university between 2001-02 and 2004-05.  So, while these numbers can give a good indicator in the general direction a program is heading, the data isn’t particularly timely.  Still, looking at the past and looking at how the data is trending can give a useful glimpse into the present.

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1. ClemsonTigers.com: In celebration of 100 years of Clemson basketball, the athletic department nominated 72 Tiger alumni of whom 25 were chosen based on most fan votes. The roster is a little heavy with recent graduates, which comes as no surprise: Clemson was mostly irrelevant in basketball until the last couple of decades; and fans most likely voted for players they saw play. Trevor Booker, Horace Grant (Clemson’s lone ACC Player of the Year), KC Rivers and last year’s star Demontez Stitt headline the list.
2. CBSSports.com: Jeff Goodman checks in after watching Duke practice with ten thoughts that include some doubts about the Blue Devils’ chemistry. Notably, Goodman agrees with Mike Krzyzewski‘s statement that Austin Rivers has a lot of maturing to do before living up to his high expectations; he also notes that despite his demonstrated success in China, Ryan Kelly can’t be expected to be this team’s star because of problems with inconsistency and defensive liabilities. The bottom line is that this Duke team is talented, but there are far more questions with it than with Duke teams of the past. It could be one of Coach K’s toughest coaching challenges, especially with the talent residing down the road in Chapel Hill.
3. Washington Post: Duke might have questions, but Georgia Tech has legitimate rebuilding to do (both literally and on the court). The Yellow Jackets are looking at a depleted roster, a new coach and an under-renovation stadium. However, Brian Gregory is trying to look at the silver lining of splitting time at two arenas: “My hope is that, even for home games, we’ll start to build some of that chemistry that only develops in hotel rooms and on bus trips and in locker rooms, sitting on bad chairs, those type of things.” It’s an interesting point, though the lack of talent and experience will probably hurt the team more than its chemistry. Still this season is important for Gregory’s program to take that first step towards a better future.
4. Yahoo: Marc Spears caught up with Harrison Barnes to talk about his decision to return to Chapel Hill this season. In many ways the lockout gives Barnes’ decision a “hindsight is 20/20” look, but the quotes from Barnes definitely point to someone who really wanted to return to school. Spears also talked to Barnes about Kyrie Irving and his decision to turn pro: “We talked a lot about what it would mean if we left, what it would mean if we stayed. He played in 11 games and they had him slotted so high that it was kind of hard to turn it down. I felt like I had to make up a lot of ground. I don’t think another year would hurt me [sic].” It’s certainly better for college basketball that a guy as talented as Barnes is coming back, but you definitely can’t fault Irving for recognizing his moment and realizing a lifelong dream.
5. Boston.com: Wake Forest coach Jeff Bzdelik is looking to improve on last season, which seems like an attainable goal. He stresses his team’s maturity, both physically and mentally, compared to last season: “We have a team that works hard, a team that is together, a team that is hungry and humble and a team that is feeling the pain from last year, as I am,” Bzdelik said. I still think the Demon Deacons are a year or two away from truly turning things around, but I definitely agree that they should be better (I mean, they can’t get much worse).

1. FSU News: Florida State‘s student newspaper takes a look at one of the Seminoles’ incoming graduate students, Jeff Peterson. Now studying marketing at FSU, Peterson started his career at Iowa before heading over to Arkansas; he and fellow graduate student Luke Loucks will be looking to take over the point guard position this season. Though somewhat unrelated, there’s probably not a better quote than one from the end of this article to describe the Seminoles’ offensive goals this season: “Florida State, however, is a team loaded with talent that is capable of manufacturing points by committee without a big-time scorer.”
2. Washington Post – Terrapins Insider: According to the man himself, Maryland fans can expect a decision on incoming freshman Alex Len‘s eligibility this Tuesday. Like Kentucky’s Enes Kanter from last season, Len faces questions on his amateur status. If eligible, he could provide a huge boost for the Terrapins because his 7’1″ height would provide Mark Turgeon’s squad with a legitimate (albeit raw) post presence.  Cross your fingers, Terp fans.
3. Baltimore Sun – Tracking the Terps: Speaking of Maryland, the Baltimore Sun‘s Jeff Barker thinks the team from College Park will be “sneaky good” assuming they solve the big man issue. Barker’s “sneaky good” seems to refer to beating ranked teams (read: North Carolina, Duke and Florida State). The interesting part here is that all three top squads in the conference are very good defensively and thrive in transition. Unfortunately, without a solid rebounding presence, transition possessions would abound. Though I agree with him in that the Terrapins have a good chance to surpass the media’s pick to finish ninth in the conference (also known as the last team not named Boston College, Georgia Tech or Wake Forest).
4.  Asheville Citizen-Times: Add another media outlet to the myriad calling for Miles Plumlee to have a breakout season. Plumlee (and his two brothers) went to a small, private high school just south of Asheville. The biggest issue over the years for Mason and Miles has been confidence. For whatever reason, neither seemed to feel comfortable taking the ball up strong despite great height and athleticism. By recent accounts, this year may be different (though I’ll believe it when I see it).
5. The Chronicle: Duke‘s student newspaper takes at look at freshman Michael Gbinije and his recruitment to play for the Blue Devils. Growing up, Gbinije hated Duke, but after going to a polarizing high school the university’s love-it-or-hate-it personality grew on him. Tom Gieryn also got a chance to talk to Gbinije’s high school coach about his prospects at the collegiate level. It definitely sounds like there’s a lot of work to do before Duke fans can expect to see Gbinije as a starter in the lineup, but his rebounding, transition offense and lock-down defense should be instant assets as he adjusts to the college game.

Question: Which Coaches Are Feeling the Heat This Season?

It’s the nature of the business that college coaches are hired to be fired.  With only a handful of exceptions around the country, job security among the coaching fraternity is hard to come by.  Every offseason roughly 15 to 20 percent of the profession turns over, with approximately half of those open jobs coming as a result of some unfortunate soul’s termination.  As we entered last season, the names of the men on the hot seat were easy to predict, and four of the five coaches listed didn’t let us down — Paul Hewitt (Georgia Tech), Jeff Capel (Oklahoma), Sidney Lowe (NC State), and Bruce Pearl (Tennessee) were all ousted after disappointing seasons (our fifth choice, Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin, got his team into the Dance and cooled his seat considerably).

Let’s take a quick look at one coach from each of the power conferences who could really use a breakthrough season in 2011-12.

ACC: Jeff Bzdelik, Wake Forest.  This was a tough league to choose from because eight of the 12 ACC coaches are in one of their first three seasons at their school.  But if we have to choose someone, it’s probably going to be the coach who guided his program to a historically awful season in his first year at the helm.  A one-win conference slate in addition to home losses to the likes of Stetson, Winthrop, UNC-Wilmington, and Presbyterian won’t buy you a great deal of slack from a program still trying to recover from the death of Skip Prosser four years ago.  Throw in the fact that several players have gotten into legal and academic trouble under Bzdelik’s watch and you start to wonder if he can survive another miserable season.  If the second-year coach expects to last much longer, he’s going to have to show some improvement in Winston-Salem this year.

There's Bad... Then There's Historically Bad...

Big East: Stan Heath, South Florida.  The five bottom-feeder Big East programs have all changed coaches in the last two years… except one — South Florida’s Stan Heath.  Heath enters his fifth season in Tampa with a total of one winning season and 19 Big East victories.  After putting together a solid 20-13 season resulting in an NIT appearance in his third year at the helm, USF backslid significantly last year to a 10-23 (3-15 Big East) mess.  Even at a school where basketball isn’t taken very seriously, a coach cannot expect to finish at or near the bottom of the standings of a 16-team league regularly and expect to stay employed very long.  He returns a verified talent in Gus Gilchrist in the post, but the Bulls don’t have a legitimate point guard and will spend this season shuttling around between different venues while the Sun Dome is refurbished.  If he’s not careful, the playing facility may not be the only new thing in USF hoops a year from now.

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Practices are in full effect, we’re halfway through our preseason conference primers, and real game action begins just over 18 days from now.  The so-called experts among us believe that North Carolina, Kentucky and Connecticut comprise the top tier of teams in America; with Syracuse, Ohio State, Duke and Louisville generally considered the next tier of challengers.  But none of us — not Goodman, not Parrish, not Decourcy, not Winn, not Davis, not Katz, not O’Neil, and certainly none of the AP, Coaches’, or RTC pollsters, are in danger of losing our jobs if we’re wrong.  Such do-or-die pressure to be right isn’t a necessary condition of this profession, but that’s definitely not true with Vegas oddsmakers.  For those guys, all it takes is one particularly terrible line and your head could be on the chopping block as a result.  As we’ve said before, sports books typically aren’t in the business of losing money, so even though you should read through these odds with a healthy dose of salt, it’s always interesting to see how they’re thinking.

First the odds (taken from The Greek as of October 19, 2011), then our analysis after the jump:  (ed. note: for those unfamiliar with futures odds, +350 represents the amount of money a potential gambler would receive back if he placed a $100 wager on that team and it won.  He would, in other words, win back 3.5 times his original wager.)

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The Atlantic Coast Conference likes to get a little fanciful sometimes. What most conferences would simply call a “media day” gets a grander name in the ACC: Operation Basketball. A little over the top, but what can you do? In any case, it’s a fun event where all the coaches and a handful of players commit to talking to the press all day long, giving interview after interview while the media expresses its gratitude the only way it knows how: by taking a pre-season poll and naming preseason all-ACC Teams!

Several Heels Find Themselve as Preseason all-ACCers

The short story of the poll and the preseason awards is unsurprising: North Carolina was tabbed as the number one team, though not unanimously as two rogue voters put Duke at the number one spot. In a somewhat surprising development, Wake Forest was not picked to finish last. That honor instead went to Steve Donahue’s ultra-young Boston College. Equally surprising was the vote for Player of the Year where Harrison Barnes was not the unanimous pick. That’s not really too shocking by itself but the the only other player receiving POY votes was John Henson , who received the only two other votes that didn’t go to his teammate. At least a couple of ACC beat journalists must really love defense.

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1. In yesterday’s M5 we mentioned that a poll of media facilitated by the Syracuse Post-Standard found that Syracuse and Connecticut were essentially viewed as equals at the top of the Big East this year.  Wednesday’s survey of Big East coaches at Media Day came to the same ultimate conclusion.  The Huskies had more first-place votes (seven) than the Orange (five), but more coaches chose SU second or third than UConn, which accounts for the difference.  Louisville received three first-place votes (Rick Pitino took shots at the votes too), while Pittsburgh received one.  The Panthers’ Ashton Gibbs was chosen as the preseason Big East POY, with UConn’s Jeremy Lamb, Syracuse’s Kris Joseph, Marquette’s Darius Johnson-Odom, WVU’s Kevin Jones, and Notre Dame’s Tim Abromaitis rounding out the first team.
2. Down on Tobacco Road, the ACC was simultaneously holding its Media Day Operation Basketball, and the proceedings generally read like a Carolina love-fest.  UNC received 57 of the 59 first-place votes from the media, and the Heels’ Harrison Barnes was a unanimous selection on the preseason all-ACC first team along with teammates Tyler Zeller and John Henson (incidentally, Luke Winn breaks down Barnes’ 2010-11 progression here).  The last time that a single school had three selections on the preseason all-ACC team was a decade ago, when defending national champion Duke brought back Jason Williams, Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Boozer.  In no surprise whatsoever, Duke was picked to finish second, with Florida State third.  The remaining all-ACC choices were Duke’s Seth Curry, Miami’s Malcolm Grant, and Virginia’s Mike Scott, with Duke’s Austin Rivers selected as the preseason ROY.  More on Operation Basketball later this morning on our ACC microsite.
3. We never contemplated a Wake Forest to USC pipeline developing, but if Jeff Bzdelik’s few talented players continue to get into trouble in Winston-Salem so that they ultimately transfer to Southern Cal, we’re sure that Kevin O’Neill will be happy to take them.  After Wake forward Ari Stewart transferred across the country in May to spend his final two years at USC, guard JT Terrell (whom Stewart hosted on his official visit to Troy) has also decided to re-surface as a Trojan.  Terrell is spending this season at a junior college in Washington, but the talented sophomore who averaged 11.1 PPG as a Demon Deacon frosh has announced that he will sign with O’Neill’s club during the early signing period in November.  Between Alex Stepheson (UNC to USC), Larry Drew II (UNC to UCLA), Travis and David Wear (UNC to UCLA), Stewart, and now Terrell, there’s something weird going on here.
4. Is Billy Gillispie ready to turn around the basketball fortunes at his third Texas destination in his somewhat short collegiate coaching career?  After very successful stints at UTEP and Texas A&M, followed by a disastrous one at Kentucky, Gillispie says that he’s sober and back on track at his new school, Texas Tech.  What was lost amidst all the chaos that surrounded Gillispie in his two years in Lexington is that he had completely rebuilt moribund programs in both El Paso and College Station very quickly, his teams employing a hard-nosed, defensive style that mimicked the coach’s somewhat infamous and notorious work ethic.  Texas Tech seems like a great fit for him not only because he’s back in his home state surrounded by his people, but the expectations and pressures at a school like TTU are incredibly tame in comparison with one of the nation’s flagship basketball schools.  Even during the Bob Knight experiment, getting to the Sweet Sixteen was cause for celebration.  It says here that Gillispie will do well in Lubbock.
5. We’ve already mentioned the heartbreaking story of Arizona’s Kevin Parrom in this space earlier this week.  Jeff Goodman caught up with him recently and the drive and fortitude that the Wildcat junior continues to show in the face of such adversity — losing his grandmother, his mother, and getting shot in the hand and leg in the span of several months — is nothing short of remarkable.  Rather than feeling sorry for himself, it’s clear in reading his quotes that he considers himself lucky to not only be alive, but also to have the opportunity to get an education on a basketball scholarship, something his mother made sure he put above all else.  And that, my friends, is what good parenting is all about.  Continued best of luck to Parrom as he works through these emotional and physical issues — we’re rooting for ya, kid.

Wake Forest had a rough season this past year. No, wait, that’s not right. Bad? Terrible? Catastrophic?  I’m having a hard time capturing the scale and scope of how bad last season was. The ideal word would capture a sort of hopeless, inevitable despondency mixed with mind-blowing, frustrating futility. Imagine a turtle trying to climb up a hill. Then the camera zooms out, and the turtle is at the bottom of the Grand Canyon trying to scale the side of a cliff. Now imagine that the turtle accidentally falls onto it’s back. Now imagine a mob gathering at the top of the cliff to push boulders down onto the turtle. That’s how last season felt in Winston-Salem.

Jeff Bzdelik Has A Lot Of Work To Do After Last Season's Disaster

Wake Forest had a single win in the Atlantic Coast Conference against lowly Virginia. Wake Forest won a single game away from its home court: a neutral court win against Elon at Greensboro Coliseum. Wake Forest stunned the world by losing the season opener against Stetson and then proceeded to lose to Winthrop, UNC Wilmington, and Presbyterian. They also lost to a number of very good basketball teams, but that kind of goes without saying when Stetson and Presbyterian are giving you the business on your floor. Ken Pomeroy’s basketball efficiency statistics demonstrate that this wasn’t just a few unlucky games. This was a systemic and utter, season-long failure. Every 16-seed in last year’s NCAA tournament was significantly better than Wake Forest. For the record, that group included UNC-Asheville, Boston University, Arkansas-Little Rock, and Texas-San Antonio. Last season, in short, was an unmitigated disaster. I hope we’re clear on that. That said, this summer may have been worse.

While Jeff Bzdelik had certainly counted on losing senior starter Gary Clark, it’s unlikely he had prepared for the other losses. Another starter, Ari Stewart, announced that he was transferring to USC. Melvin Tabb was hardly a major contributor to the Demon Deacons, but on a shrinking roster, it didn’t help that he was suspended and then released from the team after facing charges of breaking/entering and fraud. Another starter, freshman sensation J.T. Terrell, left school after he was charged with driving under the influence. Finally, 7’0″ senior Ty Walker was ruled ineligible to compete with the team throughout the duration of the fall semester due to a violation of Wake Forest’s honor code. All of this happened from the months of April to September. Ouch.

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We’ll have a recap of ACC Midnight Madness up later today, but here are the other stories from this weekend.

1. Greensboro News Record: A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling assessed whether North Carolinians pull for North Carolina, Duke, NC State or Wake Forest (Demon Deacon fans may wish to stop reading and move onto the next item). In what seems like a conservative number, 25% of voters went with the Tar Heels with 19% and 17% going with the Wolfpack and Blue Devils, respectively. Wake Forest only garnered a cool five percent of votes (which ranked below East Carolina for a reference point). The relative order isn’t surprising, as North Carolina is the most popular school with NC State having the largest alumni base. The poll also looked at perceptions on ACC expansion and state politics.
2. Winston-Salem Journal: NC State’s Richard Howell dropped twenty pounds during the offseason, now checking in at a still-burly 250 pounds. In addition to working out more, Howell dieted — skipping two of his (and my) favorites, fried chicken and bacon — opting instead for greener dishes. Coach Mark Gottfried is looking to run an up-tempo offense this year, so Howell’s improved conditioning should pay off right away. Furthermore, Tracy Smith’s graduation should open up major minutes in the Wolfpack frontcourt this season.
3. Charlotte Observer: The Observer writes that Duke is behind when it comes to diversity and head coaching. The Blue Devils are the only ACC school to have never had a black head coach in any sport. Not to take things too far out of perspective, North Carolina’s interim football coach, Everett Withers, is only that school’s second black coach. In an interview on the subject, Duke assistant coach Jeff Capel said, “It’s not something that surprised me […] I don’t read into it too much, just like at North Carolina. I wish [Withers] luck, I’m rooting for him because any time you get an opportunity, especially as a minority, a person of color, you want to make the most of it not only for yourself and your career but hopefully you can open doors for other people.” As for the future, Duke athletic director Kevin White cites a lack of coaching turnover, having only hired two new head coaches during his tenure (in the same time he’s hired 30 minorities to the athletic department as a whole).
4. Orlando Sentinel: Florida State senior Bernard James motivates himself by using the faces of the VCU players after they beat the Seminoles by one in overtime to head to the Elite Eight. James said, “That was the toughest loss I’ve ever had to experience,” and Deividas Dulkys is also using the tough loss for inspiration. This year Leonard Hamilton’s team is out to prove that last year was no fluke, even without superstar defender Chris Singleton on the team.
5. Winston-Salem Journal: North Carolina finally settled on a replacement for Dick Baddour, hiring Tulsa’s Lawrence “Bubba” Cunningham as athletic director over the weekend. He got the nickname “Bubba” because his younger siblings struggled to pronounce “brother.” On top of a $525,000 base salary, Cunningham will receive bonuses for success in football and both men’s and women’s basketball. His first task will be dealing with the upcoming meetings with the NCAA and finding a permanent football coach.