While college basketball starts tonight, ACC fans still have to wait until Friday evening at 7 PM EST. Simultaneously, Wake Forest, Florida State, North Carolina State, Miami, and North Carolina will all tip off with the first actual games of the season. While their are a number of intriguing match-ups scheduled for several of these teams, there is one game that’s going to get the lion’s share of attention. Specifically, I’m talking about, you know, the one that’s going to be played on a modified deck of an aircraft carrier.
North Carolina and Michigan State Will Battle For This Huge and Heavy Trophy This Friday.
It’s ridiculous-sounding, but it’s really happening and it’s less than a week away: the Tar Heels will take on the Michigan State Spartans on the deck of the USS Carl Vinson in front of President Barack Obama and the men and women of the United States Armed Forces. Honestly, I still can’t quite believe that it’s happening. Right now, the make-shift arena is under construction, and even in an incomplete state, it looks pretty cool.
Fox Sports Carolinas: Fox Sports‘ Andrew Jones offers a throwback list of the top ten players “capable of significantly enhancing their team’s fortunes.” I only call the list throwback because Jones ignores the two extreme geographic points of the ACC (Boston College and Miami) when constructing his list. In general I agree with all of his selections, though I possibly would’ve substituted Miles Plumlee for Ryan Kelly based on recent reports. For Boston College, I would’ve chosen Danny Rubin (the most productive of the Eagles’ only three returning players), and I would choose sophomore Rion Brown for Miami.
Boston Globe: Speaking of Boston College, Patrick Heckmann is hoping to make an impact on the Eagles this year, coming by way of Germany. This Globe piece gives a little insight into the recruiting world for international prospects, and Heckmann is a frosh out of Germany with a pretty unique story. He’s also a 6’6″ slasher who will get plenty of playing time for a young team. The story offers an especially interesting look at Heckmann’s decision in choosing Boston College over playing for a club team in Germany.
Fayetteville Observer: Looking for more lists? Bret Strelow and Sammy Batten compiled a pretty interesting list of superlatives for ACC basketball that will definitelybe good for starting debates. Sure, Milton Jennings is a great breakout candidate and Staats Battle definitely has the coolest name in the conference, but is Andre Dawkins really the most underrated dunker? He dunks almost rarely, which makes each time feel special, but we need to see more frequency in order to garner a superlative. Also, I wonder why they chose to ask a freshman (Wake Forest’s Travis McKie) about the toughest arena. For the record he chose Clemson’s Littlejohn Coliseum, though this coming year will be McKie’s first trip to the unfriendly confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium.
TarHeelBlue.com: North Carolina and NBA legend James Worthy will be elected into the college hoops hall of fame alongside of Virginia’s Ralph Sampson. Worthy was the first overall pick of the 1982 NBA Draft, led the Tar Heels to Dean Smith’s first NCAA Championship that same year (scoring 28 points on 13-17 shooting in the championship game), and is already a member of the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.
Searching For Billy Edelin and Fayetteville Observer: A couple of ACC previews and predictions with more “controversial” picks. For Nick Fasulo at Searching For Billy Edelin, the conference is down. Fasulo’s most interesting predictions come in his individual accolades, where he picked Jim Larranaga as Coach of the Year and Tyler Zeller as Player of the Year. Personally, I see Zeller as more of a complement (as he was at the end of last season), but “everything is in place for this guy. Assuming he stays healthy, there should be no […] unexpected things to limit his production,” Fasulo tweeted. The Fayetteville Observer‘s contrary nature shows up in its projected finish: Unlike the media, the newspaper projects Virginia to finish eighth in the conference (NIT-bound), while Miami takes the fourth place spot and earns an eight-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Around the greater world of college sports, one of the most sickening alleged scandals in the history of college athletics came to light over the weekend. In a story that will turn your stomach, former Penn State football defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky has been accused of 40 crimes (21 felonies and 19 misdemeanors) involving eight sexual abuse victims who were minors at the time. The worst part is that the PSU athletic department reportedly knew about some of the crimes and never reported them to the proper authorities despite extensive discussions internally. While the article is tough to read, Sara Ganim of The Patriot News does a great job breaking down the details of the case. As of today, Penn State Athletic Director Tim Curley has been placed on administrative leave and Senior Vice President for business and finance Gary Schultz has stepped down (both have been accused of perjury), but I’d be surprised if the punishments end here based on the heinous nature of these allegations.
Picture of the Day:
Len Bias Posts Up Michael Jordan in 1984. (Manny Millan/SI) h/t SI Photo Blog
We are almost there, but until the college basketball season starts, let’s take a little bit of time and consider what some past ACC players will be doing in America’s premier professional basketball league. The NBA? Oh, no, don’t be silly, the mere prospect of an NBA season is looking grimmer and grimmer. Instead I am talking about the NBA Development League, which held it’s draft Wednesday night. While the NBA players are locked out, the D-League players are ready to play their full schedule. A couple of guys who played in the ACC last season were drafted and I figured since basketball junkies can’t get enough hoops, it would be worth taking a look at the guys who will be playing in what is currently the top professional basketball league in America.
Virginia's Mustapha Farrakhan And Maryland's Adrian Bowie Were Both Selected In The 2011 NBA Development League Draft
The first ACC player to be selected in the draft was Mustapha Farrakhan, the skilled guard from Virginia, selected 13th in the first round by the Bakersfield Jam. The Jam also includes two Miami players, Adrian Thomas, who got the training camp invite after a strong showing in open tryouts, and Anthony Harris, now a D-League veteran and former point guard for the Hurricanes. The Jam also returns the 2010 D-League MVP, Brian Butch (formerly of Wisconsin), and seem poised to make some noise in the league.
Matt Patton of RTC’s ACC Microsite is the RTC correspondent for the ACC. You can find him on Twitter @rise_and_fire.
Reader’s Take I
The ACC looks like it has three tiers this year. The top: North Carolina, Duke and Florida State. The bottom: Boston College, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. And then there’s everyone else.
Top Storylines
Can North Carolina Win Its Third Ring in the Roy Williams Era?: By all counts, yes. And to this point I haven’t heard any “undefeated” nonsense from anywhere, which means people’s expectations aren’t totally out to lunch. There are several other very good teams this year. Last year’s Tar Heel team wasn’t unstoppable, even at the end of the season (they lost to a #4 seed, remember?); I don’t expect them to be unstoppable this year, either. But if you’re looking for the most complete team with the fewest unknowns, you won’t find it anywhere else in college basketball. My one peeve with the offseason coverage of this team is the idea that four of the five starters should be first team All-ACC (or even All-American). There are only so many possessions in a basketball game. Only so many players can be integral. Part of the intimidating nature of this team on paper is that no one player controls the team’s fate: On any given night, Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller or John Henson are all candidates to blow up the scoreboard (though in Henson’s case, it’s usually keeping opponents off it). It’s the fact that the combination could be more than the sum of its parts that makes the Tar Heels a lock for preseason number one.
Another Season, Another Set of Huge Expectations in Chapel Hill
Will Florida State Challenge Tobacco Road And Make The ACC Interesting Again?: Yes. I was pretty low on Florida State for my summer update, but I’m currently very high on the Seminoles. Specifically, I think Bernard James is the best defender in the country (though John Henson is a significantly better rebounder), and Jeff Peterson will be able to find offense more effectively than Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen last season. Oh, and the Seminoles are also hungry after an ugly loss to VCU left them stranded in the Sweet Sixteen last year (and they then had to watch the Rams march on to the Final Four).
How Will This Year’s Batch Of New Coaches Fare?: I think Jim Larranaga will objectively perform the best, but I also think he has the most talent at his disposal. Against my better judgment, I’m warming up to this NC State team and Mark Gottfried’s leadership (at least for the first few years). As for Georgia Tech and Brian Gregory, yikes. There’s been a little recent buzz about the Yellow Jackets being better than people expect (which is a very low threshold), but I don’t see it. Gregory has an undermanned roster full of guys he didn’t recruit with nothing to speak of in the post, and he doesn’t have a dedicated home court. Not the combination for success. In College Park, Mark Turgeon should return Maryland to regular conference title contenders again once he reopens the pipeline to Washington, D.C., talent.
The Tsar of the Tempo-Free, Ken Pomeroy, released his second annual preseason rankings with some surprises atop the list. The top ten teams are fairly consistent in content with most preseason rankings, but the order is definitely different.Pomeroy’s projections don’t love the Tar Heels, who slide from consensus number one in human polls to third. On the other hand, the rankings are relatively bullish on Duke, putting the Blue Devils at fourth. Kentucky checks in at the top spot, followed closely by Ohio State. As for the ACC, I thought North Carolina‘s ranking made some sense if you consider their whole season last year instead of just the last quarter. The high rankers of the Tar Heels make the assumption that they will pick up where they left off last season, rather than regressing to their early season struggles.
Ken Pomeroy's Preseason Top Ten
Duke will see its rating fall over the first few weeks, if observations about the team’s middling defense prove true. Right now Pomeroy has the Blue Devils ranked fourth in defense, which seems very high. But the rest of the ACC is very interesting. Miami checks in ranked above Florida State and the Seminoles’ top-ranked defense. This definitely could be true once Reggie Johnson returns to the lineup, but I suspect the teams will flip-flop fairly quickly. Pomeroy also doesn’t share the media love for Tony Bennett’s Virginia squad, which he predicts to finish tenth behind Georgia Tech.
Basketball Prospectus: The statistically inclined need to check out this piece looking at shot creation for North Carolina last season (and as a side note, I have literally no idea how I never linked to their earlier piece on “clutch” shooting). Basically the article looks to quantify Kendall Marshall‘s importance. For instance, take Tyler Zeller‘s mid-range jumper: 100% of his made shots are assisted! Marshall on the other hand had 0% of his mid-range shots assisted, but 100% of his threes were. It’s a fascinating piece and just another reason to order the College Basketball Prospectus.
American Way Mag: Everyone’s favorite Young Jeezy quoting college basketball analyst gives an excellent preview of the rapidly approaching season. No surprises at the top with North Carolina sitting just above Kentucky. Jay Bilas on the impact of the one-and-done era: “Fifteen years ago, you and I could’ve sat down at the Final Four and we would have had a really good idea of who the top ten teams in the country were going to be the next year. We’d know exactly who would be the preseason All-Americans. […] Now, you can’t.” Bilas’ alma mater, Duke, is lumped in his second tier with Vanderbilt and Louisville.
Washington Post – Terrapins Insider: The NCAA finally ruled on Alex Len‘s eligibility. Len has to sit out ten games “based on NCAA rules governing amateurism.” The only vague hint about what that might mean came from Athletic Director Kevin Anderson: “It has been a difficult situation in light of Alex’s educational pursuits.” While the athletic department hasn’t decided whether it will appeal the NCAA’s decision, this is great news as far as Maryland’s conference outlook. Len gives the Terrapins desperately needed size. The other good news is that he will be able to practice with the team until he’s officially cleared December 28 against Albany.
ACCSports.com: With Duke and North Carolina’s consistent presence at the top of college basketball (both have finished the season ranked in the Top Ten of the AP poll 15 of the last 27 seasons), having to play and recruit against them every year is a daunting task. But Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton welcomes the challenge: “In my opinion, that’s an advantage for everybody in the ACC. What better challenge could you ask for?” Hamilton has a pretty talented team of his own this season that I’ll bet gives both Tobacco Road powers everything they can handle.
ESPN: Speaking of taking on Tobacco Road, Mark Gottfried is taking it by force. In case you missed it yesterday, Gottfried added another top recruit to NC State’s already strong 2012 class in TJ Warren, a great scoring small forward. With the addition the Wolfpack’s recruiting class for next year has surpassed both of its rivals in the Research Triangle (it includes two five-star and one four-star recruits so far). According to Evan Daniels of Scout.com, they may still have a couple of more recruits to add.
And for Wake Forest fans looking to relive the glory days, I present Chris Paul (and his family) on Family Feud! (h/t Ball Don’t Lie)
Some afternoons, we’re going to do our best to point you to the developing stories and thoughtful writing from all over the ACC that has turned up during the course of the day. So without further ado, here’s your Afternoon Delight.
What's More delightful Than Wake Forest's Muggsy Bogues Playing Defense Against Maryland's Chris Gatlin? Nothing (Courtesy of @si_vault)
Charles P. Pierce at Grantland joins the fray with a gleeful and thoughtful evisceration of the NCAA. It’s the must-read piece of the day, but there are a number of excellent places that are joining voices in a chorus of criticism. In particular, I appreciated this Inside Higher Ed piece that includes Duke’s own Shane Battier weighing in on the bizarre experience of being a college athlete.
A few ACC coaches also sat down to talk the last couple of days. At a charity event for the Cal Ripken, Sr., Foundation, current and past Maryland coaches Mark Turgeon and Gary Williams, as well as Villanova coach Jay Wright, participated in a roundtable style-talk that included topics like the challenges of recruiting in Baltimore and their thoughts on conference realignment. There were no earth-shattering revelations here, but it’s interesting to learn what these guys had to say. In a really thorough interview, Boston College blog Around the Res has also been posting the transcript of an interview with Eagles head coach, Steve Donahue. The firsttwo installments of the chat, touching on interesting topics like the team’s conditioning efforts and plans to integrate more post play, have already been posted with more to come.
College Park nervously awaits the word on the eligibility of Alex Len, the promising 7’0″ Ukranian center who could be a big help to a shorthanded Maryland team. Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun published a tantalizing report that Len should be declared eligible to practice today, though he will probably face a suspension of some number of games. So far, there has been no official confirmation that Len has been cleared, but understandably folks are eager for the news. Len’s eligibility is in doubt because of a number of games he played with BC Dnipro, a professional team overseas (similar to Deniz Kilicli’s situation at West Virginia). So while we wait for more news about Len, here is a totally bizarre clip of the cheerleaders for BC Dnipro dancing.
ACC Sports Journal: Mike Lananna sat down with Wake Forest star Travis McKie to talk about the upcoming season. McKie is only a sophomore, but he’s already one of the veterans on the team because of the frequent and numerous departures out of Winston-Salem. Last year, the 6’7″ wing averaged 13 points and 7.7 rebounds a game as a freshman, but this year he hopes to move his game more to the perimeter. I don’t want to read too much into the interview, but McKie sounds very excited about playing for Wake Forest and understands that rebuilding takes time. Assuming the Demon Deacons get more solid recruiting classes, McKie could see the Big Dance by his senior year.
Sports Illustrated: I know they’ve already been linked everywhere, but Luke Winn’s Power Rankings are back! Winn’s in-depth, original analysis makes for a must-read article every week. This week three ACC teams make the cut: (1) North Carolina, (4) Duke and (20) Florida State. He looks at Kendall Marshall‘s “pass first” mentality, finding that Marshall was the only point guard from the Power Rankings to average more assists last season than field goal attempts. Duke’s analysis makes up for its lack of statistics with a great anecdote about Austin Rivers choosing his number (“0” was actually his fourth choice).
Slam Online: Is Harrison Barnes actually underrated? Slam‘s Matt Domino looks at Barnes’ transition from being overrated as a freshman to underrated as a sophomore. Domino also addresses the logical fallacy that “Barnes needs [Kendall] Marshall,” which makes him less valuable. I totally agree. Just because Barnes needs Marshall to run the point, doesn’t mean that North Carolina isn’t relying on Barnes to be its most productive offensive player in most games.
Gaston Gazette: Mike Krzyzewski doesn’t sound thrilled with his team’s performance against Bellarmine this week, as many players are still finding their new roles. The Blue Devils ended up winning the game against the D-II national champions by 25, but the game was much closer than expected. The tough love is already flowing liberally: “’I wanted to see if they could figure it out,’ [Coach K] said, ‘and they didn’t.'”
Cavalier Daily: Virginia’s student newspaper takes a look at the early season expectations for Tony Bennett‘s squad. I was shocked when the Cavaliers received votes in the Coaches’ Poll released last week. Bennett cited Mike Scott as a big part of improving Virginia’s woeful field goal percentage both by taking higher-accuracy looks and by forcing defenses to pay attention to the interior. He also said that this team is their best chance to make the NCAA Tournament since he arrived in Charlottesville in 2009.
Over the next two weeks, we’ll be previewing each of the Pac-12 teams as we head into the season.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Strengths. The Sun Devils are big. They’re capable of playing a couple of seven-footers (Ruslan Pateev and Jordan Bachynski) at the same time, with a 6’5” off-guard in Trent Lockett, a 6’3” point in Chris Colvin, and your choice of 6’5”-plus guys at the wing. Additionally, several of those guys are long for their size and guys like Lockett, Keala King, Carrick Felix or starting power forward Kyle Cain have some good hops to pair with their length.
Trent Lockett's Athleticsm Allows Him To Play Bigger Than His Size
Weaknesses. Of the many weaknesses ASU displayed last season, its inability to rebound the ball was the most damning. They rebounded just 27.8% of their own missed shots, good for 302nd in the nation, but worse they allowed their opponents to grab 33% of their misses. While Herb Sendek-coached teams don’t typically pound the offensive glass, their struggles cleaning the defensive glass need to be fixed, pronto.
Non-Conference Tests. The Devils have a very manageable non-conference schedule, with only a visit from Mountain West favorite New Mexico on 11/18 and a trip to the Old Spice Classic on Thanksgiving weekend providing major challenges. They open the Old Spice with a sneaky-tough matchup against Fairfield (one of the favorites in the MAAC), then get either Dayton or Wake Forest on Friday. Really, if ASU can play well in Orlando, they have a puncher’s chance to make some hay in that tournament, given a relatively weak field.
Last week we examined the sixty or so major programs that Vegas feels is worth offering as action to win the 2011-12 national championship. Unsurprisingly, the top several teams in the preseason Coaches Poll — North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio State, Duke, Syracuse — generally mimic the top several teams in terms of the odds Vegas is offering. The one stunning exception to that trend is Connecticut, whom the pollsters have listed among the few teams most likely to cut the nets down in New Orleans next April, but from whom the oddsmakers still aren’t seeing much value (+2000, or a 4.8% chance, as of now).
This week we’ll take a step further into the odds and consider the probabilities that Vegas has assigned to each power conference team to win its regular season championship. These odds are by no means foolproof. In reviewing last year’s preseason tables of the same six leagues, only Pittsburgh in the Big East and Arizona in the Pac-10 were favorites that came into the money by March. The other four league favorites this time last year? Try Duke in the ACC (UNC), Baylor/Kansas State in the Big 12 (Kansas), Michigan State in the Big Ten (Ohio State), and Kentucky in the SEC (Florida). So while all of these favorites looked reasonable one year ago today, keep in mind that college basketball seasons have a tendency to work themselves out differently despite what the oddsmakers and pundits think.
Ed. note: These odds are published on The Greek as of October 27, 2011. If you’re unfamiliar with how futures odds work, +150 represents the amount of money a potential gambler would receive back if he placed a $100 wager on that team and it won. He would, in other words, win back 1.5 times his original wager. Those few teams sporting a negative odds notation (e.g., -175) represents a situation where someone would have to wager $175 to win back $100. Since the aggregate of futures odds are designed to add up to a figure much larger than 100% (removing the incentive to wager on every team), we’ve added a far right column normalizing the odds to a true 100% value for each conference.
