1. NBC Sports: Rob Dauster nails why Virginia was able to shut North Carolina down over the weekend. I don’t necessarily agree with his first point (that Virginia didn’t take bad shots), but the fact that the Cavaliers showed no interest in offensive rebounding made up for any bad shots that could have lead to a Tar Heel fast break. Tony Bennett prepared his team to shut Roy Williams’ break down, and it worked well. The good news for North Carolina is that most teams won’t be able to match up as well in transition (with the initial or secondary breaks). But the bad news is that this team just isn’t as good at running the system as most of Williams’ better teams.
2. Run the Floor: Moving down Tobacco Road to Durham, Duke fans have cause for concern. Mason Plumlee‘s free throw percentage has been trending downward since the beginning of the season (and continued its inaccurate nature against Clemson last night). Duke fans will never know whether it was a lack of confidence (possibly thanks to an airballed free throw against Ohio State) or just the fact that he has reverted to the same line-drive arc. Poor free throw shooting may kill his NPOY campaign, but as long as Plumlee stays aggressive in other aspects of the game, the Blue Devils should be just fine thanks to the number of other pieces surrounding him.
3. ACC Sports Journal: Speaking of the pieces surrounding Mason Plumlee, Ben Swain paid tribute to the great season Quinn Cook has been having (in honor of Cook’s bizarre zero-point, 14-assist game against Wake Forest). Cook summarily dropped 27 points, six assists and grabbed five boards against Clemson last night. But it’s pretty amazing to look at the turnaround Cook has seen since last year when he was mostly an afterthought, especially on defense where he was prone to frequent lapses. Cook is one of Duke’s best players and may be its most important in terms of the stability he provides the Blue Devils. Not many people saw that coming.
4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: On the topic of defensive lapses, Virginia Tech has had plenty of them. Where Seth Greenberg generally made the Hokies into a respectable defensive team (a physical one, if nothing else), James Johnson’s Hokies are quite poor on defense so far this season. They’re allowing 74.6 points a game and are ranked a full 180 spots below their average defensive ranking (#50) by Ken Pomeroy since joining the ACC. The problems? Bad interior defense, not forcing turnovers, and a failure to rebound.
5. Washington Post: When people talked about Dez Wells as the difference-maker for Maryland in the preseason, I tried not to scoff because he had only joined the team in August. How is that enough time to get to know new teammates, much less fit in with them? But Wells has proven the believers right with his play so far. He’s already one of if not the most outspoken leader on the team, and when the Terrapins need a bucket in a tough situation, it’s never a bad guess that the ball will be in Wells’ hands. Props.

The NCAA on Tuesday released its first RPI ratings as conference season kicks off across the country. The news is mixed for the ACC, but it definitely looks like six (maybe seven) ACC teams will be fighting for NCAA bids this year.

The Good

• Duke is tops in the land, and it’s probably not close. Between beating top-tier non-conference foes and Mike Krzyzewski’s “gaming” of the system with solid mid-majors at neutral sites (see: Davidson), Duke could probably sustain a loss or two (especially on the road) without dropping in the rankings. Right now the Blue Devils are as close to a lock for a one-seed as you can be in early January.

Miami should celebrate its RPI ranking, but there’s still plenty of work to be done. (Photo: Al Diaz / Miami Herald)

• Miami shockingly sits at #8 because of a perfect schedule: They haven’t lost at home, the teams they’ve lost to aren’t that bad, and they scheduled difficult enough (according to Jerry Palm, they have the third best strength of schedule in the country behind Duke and Colorado). That home win against Michigan State definitely helps a lot too, but props to Jim Larranaga for knowing how to schedule. Combine the high RPI and solid best win with the fact that the three losses came without Durand Scott and Reggie Johnson, and right now Miami feels pretty safe (assuming decent play in the ACC) come Selection Sunday.
• NC State rounds out the top tier for the ACC, sliding into the index at #15. Playing a decent schedule (Michigan — even with the loss — on the road helped greatly) has the Wolfpack in a good place. This team doesn’t have any marquee wins, though, which needs to change before Selection Sunday. Unfortunately, as you’re about to find out, there aren’t a ton of high-profile wins to be had in conference play (especially if you’re one of the high-profile teams).

The Bad

• North Carolina is top-50 (#42 to be exact), but let’s be real: The Tar Heels aren’t shooting for a top-50 finish. That said, this team’s struggles away from home are going to be a serious hindrance to an elite RPI assuming they continue. North Carolina still isn’t really in danger of missing the NCAAs, but starting off conference play with an uninspired loss at Virginia wasn’t a great look (to be fair, Vegas had the Tar Heels as underdogs). The double-edged silver lining for the Tar Heels is that they have the hardest possible conference schedule, so there are several marquee wins available.

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Brian Otskey is an RTC columnist. Every Tuesday during the regular season he will be giving his 10 thoughts on the previous week’s action. You can find him on Twitter @botskey

1. It was such a shame to see Lehigh’s C.J. McCollum leave Saturday’s loss at VCU with a broken left foot after what appeared to be a rather innocuous drive down the lane late in the first half. McCollum, who led the nation in scoring before Saturday’s game, is expected to miss eight to 10 weeks. Given that time frame, McCollum could be back as soon as early March, hopefully in time for the Patriot League Tournament, which begins March 6, and any subsequent postseason tournament Lehigh qualifies for. The 6’3” senior guard out of Ohio had been in the midst of his best season yet for the Mountain Hawks, shooting over 50% from three point range and averaging 25.7 PPG before the injury. McCollum had already posted four 30+ point games and was ready to lead his team into a conference battle with the other Patriot League contender, Bucknell. Without him in the lineup, Brett Reed will have to look to his three other double digit scorers (Gabe Knutson, Mackey McKnight, and Holden Greiner) for even more production in an effort to get Lehigh to its third NCAA Tournament in four seasons.
   

   C.J. McCollum will miss 8 to 10 weeks with a broken foot.

2. The new transfer proposal that could be approved by the NCAA this summer and implemented in time for the start of the 2014-15 season could turn college basketball into an absolute mess. The proposal says that any student-athlete who keeps a 2.6 GPA (essentially a B-minus grade) or higher would be eligible to transfer without the current one-year waiting period to another school. In my opinion, this would open up a can of worms nobody wants to see. Transfers have already gotten out of control and there is no need to further that trend. Not only would you have players moving from school to school like free agents in professional sports, you would also see coaches at mid-majors and even mediocre high majors losing their top players left and right because coaches at more successful programs can offer them playing time on a quality team. Imagine there is a rising junior on a team near the bottom of a power conference. A coach at a stronger program sees this player as an important piece to his puzzle, gets him to transfer and play immediately. Essentially, that player is a free agent and the rich get richer while the majority of programs struggle to move up in their conference because most of the good players they work on developing head to teams that are in a better position to begin with. It hurts the coaches, fans, and players of the lower level school while adding nothing to the game overall. It is a bad proposal that could ruin the sport as we know it. If it were up to me, I would eliminate hardship waivers and no penalty transfers for graduate players while requiring every player who transfers for any reason to sit out one year. That is the only way to ensure competitive balance. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Grantland: Shane Ryan gave an update on college basketball as a whole but not surprisingly focused on the ACC. His main league points: (1) Duke is one of two dominant teams this year, along with Michigan; (2) NC State‘s ceiling is the Sweet Sixteen; and (3) Maryland looks like the second best team in the conference. My only caveats: (1) I want to see Duke win an ugly game in a hostile environment before getting too deep into “dominant” talk; (2) NC State has shown the ability to play better defense and make the Sweet Sixteen with a worse team and anything can happen at the Big Dance; and (3) Virginia Tech wasn’t really a test and we shouldn’t judge the Terrapins too concretely until the next six games happen.
2. College Basketball Talk: Eric Angevine talked with Marcus Paige about the Tar Heels’ loss to Virginia. Paige was very complimentary of the Cavaliers on offense and defense. He pointed to Virginia’s fighting through screens and the pack-line’s ability to take away driving lanes as big parts to its defensive success. The Cavaliers not needing help on screens clearly flustered everyone on North Carolina’s team to no end (aside from Reggie Bullock, who had a great night). But the Tar Heels won’t see many defenses like that going forward, so that’s not as troubling as the number of wide open shots Virginia had thanks to running players off those screens.
3. Charlotte Observer: Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton used to play for the same AAU team in middle school. Duke’s point guard pair’s longtime friendship definitely helps with team chemistry. It also probably played a big role in Cook’s dramatic improvement as a defender (seriously, watch some Duke tape from last year… he was one of Duke’s biggest defensive liabilities). Not to beat a dead horse, but there’s a closeness that pervades this Duke team that simply wasn’t there last year. That really close bond is also why Josh Hairston sees so many more minutes than the new, more talented, freshmen.
4. Florida Today: Terry Whisnant is Florida State‘s best shooter. He’s part of the slew of combo guards Leonard Hamilton uses on a frequent basis, adjusting the rotation based on match-ups and who’s hot. It sounds like Whisnant would like more time, but understands his current role on the team. If the Seminoles start showing big improvements and get a couple of statement wins under their belts, that understanding may be a little less bitter. Regardless, if you’re looking for the man most likely to pull a Deividas Dulkys impersonation this season, Whisnant is your man.
5. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Akil Mitchell was questionable for Sunday’s North Carolina – Virginia game thanks to a sprained ankle he suffered in practice. But Mitchell clearly didn’t want to watch from the sidelines, either. He gutted out the game, and played very well regardless. Interestingly, Mitchell wanted to keep his injury a secret before game time. He went as far as to tell his mother to remove a Facebook status discussing the injury. Now that the adrenaline and anti-inflammatories have worn off, don’t be surprised if Mitchell takes the next game off to let his ankle get better. But I’ll bet it was totally worth it to knock off the Tar Heels for the first time in the John Paul Jones Arena.

After five games on Saturday and one game on Sunday, conference play has officially begun for all the schools in the ACC. So did we learn anything over the weekend? Absolutely. Here are three takeaways from the action.

1. North Carolina State is Vulnerable. Sure the Wolfpack scores with ease, but Boston College, a terrible offensive rebounding team, easily snagged some critical boards in the closing minutes of a surprisingly tight game. Just as problematic, North Carolina State has still not figured out how to defend without fouling: Boston College attempted a whopping 37 free throws in its five point (78-73) loss. The Wolfpack got the win in the end, but this game was hardly the confidence-boosting rout that the folks in Raleigh were hoping for. Against stiffer competition, NC State might find itself in trouble.
   

   Erick Green Has Been Forced To Do It All This Year

2. Erick Green Can Really Score, Even If Nobody Else on Virginia Tech Can. In all fairness, this wasn’t exactly a surprising lesson, but the lopsidedness of the game against Maryland — a 94-71 defeat — really highlighted the problem that the Hokies have. Green scored 28 points on an efficient 18 shots and still his team lost by 23. If you can’t get the score within 20 points on the tail of a star performance like that, your team is in serious trouble. Cadarian Raines showed a real knack on the boards and maybe it was just an off night for his teammates Robert Brown and Jarell Eddie, but until Virginia Tech demonstrates otherwise, this team only has one player, albeit a really great one.
3. North Carolina Isn’t Ready, But Virginia Is. There has been a growing suspicion that North Carolina was not a very good team, but a win against UNLV without Reggie Bullock in the lineup earned the Tar Heels the benefit of the doubt. In its loss against Virginia, however, Roy Williams’ team showcased how vulnerable and inept it can be, while Virginia made its opening argument for its case as an ACC contender. Outside of Bullock, who has been freakishly efficient and effective this season, North Carolina can’t score effectively against good defenses. And let’s be clear, Virginia has a very good defense. The Cavaliers did a remarkable job in exhibiting how a combination of tough defense, a slow tempo, and deadly perimeter shooting can pick apart a team that isn’t prepared for it.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The first weekend in 2013 dives head first into conference season. There are some key match-ups within the Big Ten and Big 12 that will set the tone early for who to watch over the next two months. Let’s get to the breakdowns!

#11 Ohio State at #13 Illinois – 2:15 PM EST, Saturday on BTN (****)

Aaron Craft needs to lock down the perimeter against Illinois (Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch/US Presswire).

• It seems odd to say that these two top 15 teams are in need of a win, but that appears to be the case in this particular match-up. Ohio State is 0-2 in its two big games against Duke and Kansas, leaving the Buckeyes without a marquee victory thus far, while Illinois has lost two of its last three games after starting 12-0. Illinois’ shooting has been quite poor over the last three games: star guard Brandon Paul has gone 5-of-18, 3-of-12, and 4-of-10 in that span. Alongside D.J. Richardson, the Illini guards will face a tough defensive test from OSU guards Aaron Craft, Lenzelle Smith Jr., and Shannon Scott. Paul is always capable of a breakout game, but keep a close eye on his shooting as Illinois typically goes the way he goes. In their two losses this season to Duke and Kansas, the Buckeyes have faced dominant post players. Illinois does not have that asset per se, so that bodes well for the Buckeyes, even in Champaign. Big forward Tyler Griffey is Illinois’ best inside option, but he could have his hands full on defense if he is matched-up against DeShaun Thomas. Craft and the Buckeye perimeter defense is the key to this game and it doesn’t appear that the Illinois defense is strong enough to keep Thomas from scoring. While it will be a raucous home crowd for the Illini, I think OSU pulls off the win.

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1. CSNChicago.com: Duke commitment Jabari Parker reached out to a couple of pros for advice on his budding career. On recruiting, he talked to fellow Chicago Simeon HS graduate Derrick Rose, who pointed Parker toward the coach who would most push him instead of coddling him. For injury advice, he sought out Duke alumnus Grant Hill, who stressed the importance of patience. Their advice certainly isn’t mind-blowing, but it’s cool to see someone use those connections to make these kinds of life decisions. It also probably didn’t hurt Duke to have a guy like Hill indirectly (and unofficially of course) representing the school.
2. Run The Floor: In case Ken Pomeroy’s numbers didn’t give you a full clue into how much better Duke has been than the rest of the ACC, Michael Rogner made up an ACC “Power Rankings” based on efficiency margins. Visually, it’s stunning just how much more impressive Duke has been in the early goings and explains why Pomeroy’s simulations have Duke winning nearly 90% of the time. Duke has the best offense and the best defense in the league by fairly significant margins. And the other schools with an elite offense (really only NC State) or defense (Georgia Tech and Virginia) are very one-dimensional.
3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Speaking of the Yellow Jackets, Georgia Tech is off to an impressive 10-2 start this season. But while their record should come with a grain of salt, it’s not like Brian Gregory played a schedule of world-beaters in non-conference play last season when his team started 7-7. Georgia Tech’s improvement is mostly on the defensive end, where they’re shutting opponents down and doing a solid job covering the defensive glass. Last year the Yellow Jackets needed a miracle game out of Glen Rice, Jr., to have a chance. This year they might be able to surprise a few teams along the way.
4. CBSSports.com: Florida State‘s recent “disappoint in the non-conference but force the Selection Committee’s hand with a couple of great conference wins” MO may fall somewhat short this season. In large part, the Seminoles can blame the second item on this list, as there just aren’t that many great wins within the ACC to get this season. Sure, beating Duke in Tallahassee would go a long way, but apart from their one shot at the Blue Devils the Seminoles don’t have any real margin for error. The team just hasn’t gelled defensively, and it shows.
5. Washington Post: Jontel Evans is out of his boot and may return against North Carolina on Sunday. Assuming Evans fits back into the team seamlessly (and there’s no reason to assume he won’t), Virginia may very well be the second best team in the ACC. Their loss to Old Dominion notwithstanding, the Cavaliers play very tough defense that will only get better when Evans returns to the lineup. Don’t expect too many minutes against the Tar Heels though, as the Cavaliers don’t want to re-aggravate Evans’ foot injury.

EXTRA: Former North Carolina governor Jim Martin wrote a letter to the editor of the Raleigh News & Observer to comment on the criticisms of his recent report about the UNC academic scandal. Long story short, he did everything that was in his power to illuminate the scandal and reported his findings. Unfortunately, without subpoena power at his disposal, though, he couldn’t force anyone to cooperate on the record, a major limitation.

1. Associated Press (via The State): Clemson freshman Adonis Filer lit up the Citadel for 21 points on seven shots (he was a perfect 7-of-7 from the field but missed a foul shot). After letting the Bulldogs hang around for the first 10 minutes, Clemson broke the game open by locking down on defense. Don’t read too much into the beatdown (the Bulldogs trailed Georgia Tech 20-3 on its way to a 32 point loss), but a 41-point win is a 41-point win, even against Ken Pomeroy’s fifth-worst team in the country. Clemson will need a lot of this type of performance from Filer during ACC play.
2. Washington Post: Mark Turgeon is really concerned about how his team will perform in close games. Unfortunately, Maryland’s non-conference schedule only afforded it one such game (the season opening loss to Kentucky where Maryland went flat down the stretch). Since then it has been a rotating cast of cupcakes. Turgeon has had his team practicing those tight situations all season, but you can’t replicate the intensity of conference play on the practice floor.
3. Streaking the Lawn: Virginia‘s non-conference play was an emotional roller coaster. An undermanned Cavaliers team lost its season opener to George Mason. Less than a week later, they lost to a mediocre Delaware team and missed the chance to prove their own in the NIT Tip-Off. Then Tony Bennett’s team pulled off a shocking upset at Wisconsin and ground out a home win against Tennessee only to lose to a horrible Old Dominion team before Christmas. There were some cupcakes in between those contests, but it’s really tough to tell who the real Virginia is this season. It will be really interesting to see how North Carolina handles Bennett’s system this coming Sunday.
4. Duke Basketball Report: NC State freshman TJ Warren is on pace for a record-setting year. Currently, Warren is shooting 77-of-111 (69.4%) from the field. Only Brendan Haywood and Christian Laettner have sported better field goal percentages as a rookie — and Laettner didn’t manage enough attempts to make the record book. What’s especially impressive about Warren (compared to Haywood) is his versatility. Haywood never saw a shot longer than four feet that he liked, but Warren is a sick 8-of-13 from long range so far this year.
5. The Sporting News: Mason Plumlee looked rather pedestrian against Davidson last night. The Wildcats doubled him every time he touched the ball and his six turnovers show just how rattled he was by their two-pronged attack. In the first half specifically, Plumlee looked totally frustrated by the strategy. In the second half, he looked better (though still not great). But the reason Duke’s future opponents should be warned isn’t that he’ll come back more motivated — they should be warned because Duke still dominated a good Davidson team, winning by 17 points in a quasi-road game (covering Vegas’ 11.5 point spread and matching Ken Pomeroy’s prediction).

1. Streaking the Lawn:Awesome future non-conference news out of Charlottesville. One thing that’s been dying lately are home-and-home series with non-conference foes, but Virginia will (hopefully) iron out the details on a future head-to-head with local rival VCU. That should make for a really interesting series, and looks to benefit both parties. The Rams and Cavaliers get another marquee non-conference game to prove its strength come Selection Sunday. Fans get a potential budding rivalry played at a high level. Although there is a chance Tony Bennett’s pack-line, slow-down system will spontaneously combust when it meets Shaka Smart’s HAVOC scheme.
2. Baltimore Sun: Jake Layman didn’t have a seamless transition when he got to College Park. He struggled academically and athletically in his first semester, but the freshman is looking for a new start for the new year. Layman has the chance to be a great four-year player for Mark Turgeon, but he just has to focus on “getting better every day.” Don’t expect Layman to be the Terrapins’ most important piece this season, but look for him to be more comfortable on and off the floor.
3. Keeping It Heel: PJ Hairston seems to be growing into a more important role in Chapel Hill this season. He took full advantage of Reggie Bullock’s injury in the Tar Heels’ win over UNLV, playing 32 minutes, scoring 15 points on 10 shots, and grabbing four steals. If Hairston continues to improve — specifically on his shot selection and defensive intensity — don’t be surprised if Roy Williams pushes him to play starter minutes (or replaces Dexter Strickland in the starting lineup).
4. SBNation Boston: Things are looking better in Chestnut Hill. No, the Eagles aren’t looking like contenders but Boston College has looked much better over its recent five-game winning streak. Specifically, the defense is greatly improved and freshmen Joe Rahon and Olivier Hanlan are both averaging double figures. Steve Donahue’s schedule hasn’t been littered with world-beaters, but there’s a lot to be said for learning how to win. This team should be more competitive — even if they don’t win more games — than last year’s squad.
5. Chapelboro: Jeremy Gerlach wrote a travel guide for the ACC (albeit leaving Chapel Hill, Tallahassee, Atlanta, Winston-Salem and College Park off the list). With conference play tipping off this Saturday, you may want to do some research before picking your road trips. This article is an OK place to start, but I’d probably look a little more closely.

1. Keeping it Heel: Matt Hamm thinks that UNC, now unranked and at 9-3 with no victories against notable opponents, needs to tighten its rotation with time lacking for further “experimentation.” He advocates solutions that enhance the offense, including giving freshman Brice Johnson the lion’s share of the minutes at center. He also insists that UNC must play PJ Hairston and Leslie McDonald more to maximize UNC’s perimeter effectiveness. All of these moves have offense in mind, although the defense, which gave up 85 points to a struggling Texas team and 61 in the second half to East Carolina, has not always been a strong suit. Regardless, UNC needs to get things figured out as conference play is around the corner. One area that UNC could definitely improve in is getting to the free throw line — this season, the Tar Heels rank 335th in FTA/FGA, with Brice Johnson interestingly enough among the worst at getting to the free throw line.
2. Virginia has been one of the most enigmatic teams in the ACC this season — the Cavaliers soundly defeated Wisconsin at the Kohl Center, but are also 0-3 against the CAA, its only three losses of the season. Its latest loss, to previously 1-10 Old Dominion, has raised many of the lingering questions that Virginia has had all season. Tony Bennett’s normally stout defense was poor against ODU, surrendering 63 points, one shy of its maximum all season, in a game with few possessions. The absence and/or limited effectiveness of Jontel Evans has really plagued the Cavaliers, and their undersized front line came back to haunt them against the Monarchs, as UVA posted one of its worst rebounding efforts of the season. Virginia must avoid losses like these if it wants to be considered a legitimate NCAA Tournament contender.
3. Miami’s Reggie Johnson is an essential cog for the Hurricanes. Without Johnson in the lineup, Miami dropped two games in this week’s Diamond Head Classic. While he has not been particularly efficient this season — shooting only around 43% from the floor, a stark decline from previous seasons — he is the best on the team at getting to the free throw line, and is a good foul shooter for a big man (just over 70%). The effects of Johnson’s absence were most notably seen at the other positions where teams could focus more of their defensive attention as Miami lacked its skilled big man. Kenny Kadji bore the brunt of this attention, as he was just 5-of-16 in the Indiana State game. Miami needs Johnson to get back to action, not only because he is likely to improve to a performance in line with seasons past, but also because his presence opens up opportunities for Miami’s potentially lethal perimeter attack.
4. With Dez Wells and Alex Len getting a majority of the ink for 10-1 Maryland, an under-appreciated part of the Terrapins’ attack has been junior point guard PeShon Howard. Howard has quite a bipolar season stat line — he is 38th in the country in assist rate , but his turnover rate is nearly as high and is the worst on the team. Howard has also been an anemic shooter this season (just 8-of-31 overall), but adding to his strange profile, he is an incredibly good free thrower, albeit in a low sample size as well (15-of-17). Howard, in order to improve his overall profile, must keep teams a bit more honest when calling his own number, but Mark Turgeon has generally been pleased with his improved shot selection, as he has been known as a bit of a chucker in previous seasons. Regardless of his odd statistical profile, Howard will play a very important role in Maryland’s overall success this season, and he was nominated for the Bob Cousy Award, which honors the top point guard in the country..
5. State of the U: This article presents a detailed if slightly off-color look at some interesting statistics in the ACC this season. Some highlights include: Mason Plumlee is second in the ACC in scoring and first in rebounding, averaging over a double-double per game. NC State has three of the top four players in the conference in offensive efficiency. North Carolina, while ranked third in the country in scoring, has largely done it against poor competition — their upcoming game with UNLV will likely be the most accurate litmus test for the Tar Heels this season. Boston College’s woes can be at least partially explained by the fact that their second and third leading scorers are both shooting under 40% from the floor. There’s more than this in the article – make sure to check it out.