David Ely is an RTC contributor.

On Monday we gave you the list our five biggest coaching moves from the last offseason, now it’s team to look into our crystal ball and see who’s in danger of getting a pink slip. The guys from Monday would be advised to check out this post. All of the coaches below at one point carried the same promise and excitement of better things to come at their respective schools. But as at least one of them will most likely see, sometimes things just don’t work out.  Here are the top five coaches who need to have good seasons in order to feel secure about their jobs.

Paul Hewitt, Georgia Tech

Paul Hewitt Almost Left Georgia Tech On His Own Last Year

• Record at School: 176-142 (67-93 ACC) in 10 seasons.
• Postseason Results: Five trips to the NCAA Tournament (NCAA runner-up in 2004); one trip to the NIT.
• High point/low point: Hewitt’s high point is an easy pick and it’s one of the reasons why it’s confusing that he finds himself with so much to prove this season. The man coached the Yellow Jackets to the National Championship game in 2004, his fourth season at Georgia Tech. At that time there was so much promise in Atlanta, what with Hewitt’s knack to bring in big time talent (Chris Bosh and Jarrett Jack, for example) and what at the time seemed like an ability to coach ’em up and mount a run at a title. At least that’s what appeared to be the case. It didn’t take long for fans of the Ramblin’ Wreck to grow wary of Hewitt’s up and down nature. You could point out a number of things for the low point of the Hewitt era. There’s the fact that GT has never has won more than nine games in the ACC. There’s his four losing seasons. But I’d have to go with his disastrous 2-14 campaign in 2008-09, when the Yellow Jackets finished dead last in the ACC.
• Reasons to stay: Hewitt knows how to recruit. He’s signed three guys that went on to win ACC Rookie of the Year honors in Bosh (2003), Ed Nelson (2002) and Derrick Favors (2010). Hewitt definitely knows how to sell the program to recruits, and it would be tough to find another guy that can bring in the same kind of hauls Hewitt has on his resume.
• Reasons to leave: Hewitt is consistently inconsistent. Considering the talent on some of these Georgia Tech rosters, it’s dumbfounding that Hewitt has just one 9-7 ACC regular season to his name. Hewitt has made back-to-back NCAA Tournaments only once (2003-04) and hasn’t made it past the Tournament’s opening weekend since the Yellow Jackets’ run to the National Championship game in 2004.
• Bare minimum he needs to stay: Hewitt needs to finish with at least a .500 record in conference, and the Yellow Jackets need to win a game in the NCAA Tournament. The preseason talk in Atlanta is how the Jackets are better than they were last year, despite Favors’ departure to the NBA. That means there’s no excuse if Hewitt can’t turn this team into a winner.
• Possible job-savers: A strong finish at the end of the regular season. The schedule works out nicely for the Yellow Jackets to build momentum for the ACC Tournament and beyond. After traveling to Duke on Feb. 20, Tech finishes up home against Virginia, at N.C. State, at Wake Forest and home for Miami. Hewitt needs to sweep through those final four games to make sure there’s a chance for another season in Atlanta.
• Odds of keeping his job: I’d say it’s 50-50. On the one hand, if A.D. Dan Radakovich was going to fire Hewitt, why didn’t he pull the plug after that dismal 2009 season? Then again, it should take a winning season in Atlanta for Hewitt to stick around for another year. Not many people are high on the Yellow Jackets this season because of the loss of Favors and Gani Lawal. Either Hewitt pulls a rabbit out of his hat or he reaches in and grabs a pink slip.

Jeff Capel, Oklahoma

• Record at School: 82-51 (32-32 Big 12) in four seasons.
• Postseason Results: Two trips to the NCAA Tournament (Elite Eight in 2009).
• High point/low point: It’s hard to imagine Capel on this list considering that his high point at Oklahoma came just two seasons ago. In 2009 the Sooners were a No. 2 seed in the South Region and made it all the way to the Elite Eight before getting run out of the gym by eventual the national champion, North Carolina. The year before that Capel led the Sooners to a 23-12 record and NCAA second round finish; he was a coach on the rise and his program was headed in the right direction. Then everything fell apart. As expected, Blake Griffin decided to go to the NBA, but OU still had talent in guards Willie Warren and Tommy Mason-Griffin. It didn’t matter. Capel suffered his worst season in Norman, Oklahoma, on and off the court. The Sooners lost their final nine games of the season to finish under .500 for the first time since 1981. Worse, there’s an ongoing investigation into NCAA violations committed by ex-assistant coach Oronde Taliaferro. Five underclassmen (including Warren and Mason-Griffin) and two assistant coaches have left the program since the end of the season. Considering all the off-court drama, the court should be a safe haven for Capel. But then again, that’s where all his problems started last year.
• Reasons to stay: If the Sooners ever need a last second half court shot they have the perfect guy to draw up a play. Seriously, though, Capel seems to be committed to Oklahoma and there’s no direct evidence that he had anything to do with the NCAA allegations. Capel easily could have fled the scene this offseason, but he chose to stick around.
• Reasons to leave: Was Oklahoma’s two-year run a product of Capel’s coaching or was it because of Blake Griffin? Capel’s first year B.G. (before Griffin) ended with a 16-15 overall record and a seventh place tie in the Big 12. In the first year A.G. the Sooners went a paltry 13-18 and tied for eleventh in the conference. It could easily be that Oklahoma won 30 games in 2008-09 because of Griffin’s on-court brilliance rather than anything Capel was responsible for.
• Bare minimum he needs to stay: Well first of all, Capel needs this NCAA investigation to end positively. You know what the Sooners did to Kelvin Sampson. And you have to think that the powers that be in Norman won’t accept any kind of improprieties. On the court, Capel has to finish at least over .500. People shouldn’t have any preconceived notions that it will be an easy return to prominence for Capel & Co. Not with nine new players on the roster. A winning record and a trip to the NIT should be enough to keep Capel from getting canned.
• Odds of keeping his job: I think that Capel doesn’t have to worry about finding a new team come next spring. Capel should be able to meet the Sooners’ lowered expectations, and it will be fun to see this team fly under the radar in the Big 12.

Sidney Lowe, N.C. State

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A surprisingly quiet week given Midnight Madness, but we’re expecting quite a few of the recruiting chips to fall into place over the next few weeks before we wait for the inevitable group of recruits that decides to wait until April to commit to a program.

• For weeks we have been talking about how Mark Fox has been turning around Georgia with his solid recruiting, but it looks like he lost out on Julian Royal, who committed to Georgia Tech giving Paul Hewitt a huge boost this recruiting season.
• Kansas may have picked up the point guard that Bill Self was looking when Josiah Turner opted to commit to play for Arizona as after Naadir Tharpe committed to play for the Jayhawks in the middle of last week.
  

  Can Tharpe lead KU back to glory? (Credit: Robert E. Klein / Boston Globe)

• Georgetown picked up a commitment from Brandon Bolden, a center in the class of 2012, just prior to their Midnight Madness event.
• George Mason picked up commitments from Corey Edwards, a point guard out of New York, and Vaughn Gray, a small forward out of New Jersey.
• The commitments keep on coming in for Steve Lavin and St. John’s as they picked up one from D’Angelo Harrison and are in the final four for Nurideen Lindsey.
• We’ve been on Tom Crean about his decision to offer scholarships to rising freshmen, but it looks like Indiana is out recruiting Darryl Hicks, the top sophomore in the state of Kentucky.
• Oklahoma State picked up a commitment from Karron Johnson, a junior college forward who averaged 22 PPG and 7.9 RPG last year, and has 2 more years of eligibility.

• We will start off with an interesting article by Doug Gottlieb about how Syracuse and other schools have been successful recruiting in somewhat unconventional ways (ESPN Insider required, sorry).
• Louisville landed the big catch of the week when Chane Behanan committed to the Cardinals. Some Louisville fans have been predicting that Quincy Miller and Deuce Bello might be joining him, but it seems like the pair is still visiting other schools including Baylor.

Which way will Quincy Miller go?

• Don’t expect to see Bruce Pearl or any of his Tennessee assistants on the recruiting trail any time soon, but they still might be able to land big-time recruits like JaKarr Sampson (the controversial transfer from St. Vincent St Mary’s) and Tony Parker (not the one married to Eva Longoria).
• Matt Painter may have found a physical big man to build around for the future after picking up a commitment from power forward Jacob Lawson to play for Purdue.
• Rutgers has had a surprisingly successful recruiting season and added to it with the commitment of Myles Mack and has point guard Jerome Seagers leaning towards joining the Scarlet Knights although Seagers appears to have reservations about how it would work having two relatively short point guards playing in the same backcourt.

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1. The people in Cambridge, Massachusetts seem to think that Tommy Amaker has turned things around and that the success will carry into this season and beyond because of Amaker’s ability to recruit and the school’s “name.”  While we think there is a better chance of fielding a solid basketball team than a solid football team at an Ivy League school because of the pure numbers — getting five to commit is easier than 23 (or 11 if your players are going two ways) — but we just don’t see that happening, at least on a consistent basis (Cornell last year was a little bit like catching lightning in a bottle). Our favorite part of the article is Andy Katz crediting Amaker with guiding Harvard to its first postseason appearance since 1946 last year, when they qualified for the CollegeInsider.com Tournament created just a year earlier. What’s next? Saying that a team is ranked just because Ken Pomeroy has them ranked even if they are 347th?
2. We haven’t talked much about this topic yet (at least compared to some other sites), but the news and columns about the potential ban on early recruiting keeps on building. Today’s news comes out of Atlanta where Paul Hewitt said what everybody has been thinking: the new rule will mean that coaches will just have “a wink and a nod” agreement.
3. We mentioned some of the early fall-out from the Kansas ticket scandal in yesterday’s Morning 5, but we are here with another update as a second former KU official has pleaded guilty to an identical charge. Right now the losses from the scandal are estimated to be between $1-3 million. We have a feeling more heads will roll in this case.
4. Since Mike Bellotti, who you may remember as the coach who infamously compared the BCS to “a bad disease, like cancer,” left Oregon to work at ESPN, the Ducks have been searching for a new athletic director. They finally announced a successor yesterday when they named Rob Mullens, previously at Kentucky, as their new athletic director. While Mullens’ old job required him to answer to approximately 4.3 million Kentuckians, his new job requires him to answer to just one man: Phil Knight.
5. Nice piece by Dana O’Neil about new Charlotte coach Alan Major and his unusual path to get a head coaching job. Coming out of high school, Major had a chance to play for a Division II school, but instead opted to go to Purdue and try to walk-on. When he failed to make the team, he decided to essentially become Gene Keady‘s apprentice where he essentially shadowed the coaches. Now after several stints as an assistant coach at various schools, Major gets his chance to be the man, but he won’t have an easy road as he replaces Bobby Lutz, who was fired after a 19-12 season (and the longest tenure in 49er history plus five NCAA tournament appearances and two Conference USA titles). That will not be an easy act to follow for the first-time head coach.

Over the past few months this site and many others that cover college basketball were filled with columns about what was viewed as an almost certain expansion of the NCAA Tournament to 96 teams. It turns out that almost everyone in the media (including us) had it wrong as the NCAA announced its plans to expand to a 68-team tournament while being broadcast on CBS and the 3 Turner networks (TBS, TNT, and truTV). Technically the NCAA Board of Directors still has to approve the changes next Thursday, but that should be a rubber stamp situation given the unanimity in today’s decision. The deal, which should account for approximately 96% of revenue for men’s college basketball, will pay the NCAA $10.8 billion over 14 years (or a little over $771 million per year) compared to the previous deal of $6 billion over 11 years (or slightly more than $545 million per year). That deal, which was signed in 1999, allowed the NCAA an opt-out by July 31 of this year. Once the NCAA exercised that option it was widely believed that their intention was to sign with ESPN in the network’s attempt to take over all things sports-related. When it became clear that ESPN was no longer the front-runner in the bidding, everyone’s attention turned to the CBS/Turner bid. We will get to the whole 68 team thing in a bit just bear with us while we go through the TV issues.

Coming soon to TBS. . .

While everybody is familiar with CBS’s work on the NCAA Tournament since they have broadcast every NCAA championship game since the 1982 Tourney which involved a freshman named Michael Jordan hitting the game-winning shot, Turner’s association with college basketball is a little less well-known. When I say “less well-known,” I mean that I am unaware of any prior association between Turner Sports and college basketball.  Some news reports are indicating that the NCAA was leaning towards the joint bid because of their desire to have every game broadcast nationally, which would require four channels broadcasting games. Even though ESPN would have that capability (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNews, and ESPN Classic) and we are still searching for truTV on our local cable provider (Comcast in Boston) it is being reported that this desire favored the CBS/Turner deal. All of the games will continued to be streamed online. What this will do is eliminate the need for Greg Gumbel to switch you to a different game (often at inappropriate times) and allow those of us who don’t get DirecTV’s March Madness package to watch two close games at once on a split screen (assuming you have picture-in-picture on your TV). [Ed. Note: TNT/TBS reaches almost six times as many households as DirecTV (99 million versus 18 million).] It is unclearexactly how much ESPN bid for the NCAA Tournament, but it is believed to have been relatively close to the CBS/Turner bid.

We won't be seeing these two broadcasting NCAA Tournament games any time soon

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Hewitt Turns Down St. John’s.  It always seemed like a drop in prestige from our viewpoint, but you never know the myriad factors that influence a coach’s decision, so we thought there was a reasonable chance Hewitt would bolt Atlanta for Jamaica (New York, that is).  Turns out that he’s sticking with his Yellow Jacket home after all, as Andy Katz reported today that Hewitt will not be taking the SJU offer.  Once St. John’s gives up the pipe dreams of courting Rick Pitino or Billy Donovan, the school is expected to go hard after Seth Greenberg at Virginia Tech or Steve Donahue at Cornell. 

The big news today in this area was of course the news that Tony Barbee is leaving UTEP to take the Auburn job.  We handled that separately here.

The other piece of coaching news is that Hofstra’s Tom Pecora has signed with Fordham for a non-puny sum of $705,000 per year.  Wow.  In the same New York Post article, Joe DeLessio says that Paul Hewitt is still the leading candidate to take the St. John’s job but a hefty buyout of $3.5M is holding up things.

In a pre-emptive strike by Northern Iowa to try to hang on to their hot commodity coach Ben Jacobson for as long as possible, the school offered him a big raise and a ten-year contract extension yesterday (which he accepted).  With each passing win in this Tournament, Jacobson’s stock will continue to rise.

Moving from the world of fact to the rumor mill, let’s start with one even more ridiculous than the Tubby to Auburn one last Friday: UCLA’s Ben Howland to DePaul?  Excuse us while we clean up the water we spit out all over the computer screen.  At first blush, this is borderline insanity.  Notwithstanding the fact that Howland is a SoCal guy who has taken that team to three Final Fours in his tenure there, it’s… freakin… DePaul.  We’d give this a 1% chance if we were talking about another traditional powerhouse, like, say, Indiana.  But DePaul?  How can anyone take this seriously?  What are they going to offer him — $10M per year?  And yet, even the Bruin faithful believe there’s more to this than just rumor.  For what it’s worth, Ben Howland stated today that he has “zero interest” in this job, which is about the amount we would expect him to have.

Sylven Landesberg of Virginia has decided to leave the school and turn pro this year.  He was already suspended for academic problems, and there was little expectation that he would be able to come back next year anyway.  The problem is that he’s by no means a first round lock, and may not even be a second rounder either.  According to this report, though, he may opt to play in Europe or Israel, though.

South Florida’s Dominique Jones is exploring the option of entering the NBA Draft, but he’s leaving open the possibility of a return to school.  He will have until May 8 to decide this year.  He averaged 21 PPG this year and had a mid-season series of explosive games that really caught people’s attention.  He’s currently projected in the late 1st/early 2d round window.

Kansas’ Xavier Henry hasn’t yet made a formal decison, but his coach Bill Self stated today that his star wing is ready from a skills standpoint to move on the NBA.  KU is already losing Sherron Collins to graduation and Cole Aldrich is expected to make his decision in the next week, but we’re sure that Self will reload quickly and have the Jayhawks back in the title hunt very soon.

In a maneuver that doesn’t make a lot of sense to us unless Georgia Tech head coach Paul Hewitt is looking for a way out of Atlanta, he will talk with St. John’s on Wednesday about the possibility of becoming the next head honcho of the Red Storm.  He is a New York guy, but this would be in no way a lateral move, as Georgia Tech has been light years ahead of the Queens-based program for the better part of two decades.

Money must really talk, otherwise how else to explain leaving a successful CAA program for a moribund A10 one? Fordham has offered its vacant head coaching position to Hofstra’s Tom Pecora, and Pecora is expected to visit the school on Wednesday and could formally be named the coach at that time.   You’ll recall that Fordham recently upped its basketball budget in an effort to lure a bigger-name coach to its Bronx campus.

1. Does Villanova look to you like the same team that started 20-1?  Do they look like the same team when compared to…their last game?  If you said no to either of those questions, there’s a reason for that.  Mike DeCourcy takes an interesting look at a chameleon-like Wildcats squad that even Jay Wright describes as still “evolving.”  And when a team is described as playing basketball “like they were in a pie-eating contest,” you know you’re going to have to read that article.
2. Beyond The Arc’s Mike Miller says, after Ohio State’s win over Illinois last night, the player of the year race is all but over.  The Villain and the Buckeyes now have nine days off.  A certain Kentucky point guard has two games in that time span, including a nationally televised affair this Sunday that will represent his final game in Rupp Arena.  Your move, John Wall.
3. It was a photo finish for Place in the Race for 2,000 wins, but last night North Carolina crossed the finish line with their win against Miami.  And the lack of fanfare that accompanied this achievement was deafening.  Ironic that this would be the UNC team that contributed this nugget of history to Tar Heel lore.  Kansas is next, three wins away from 2,000.
4. Got a Kentucky fan in the family?  We have your Christmas shopping done already.  You’re welcome.
5. We wonder if Georgia Tech boss Paul Hewitt gets those phone and snail-mail subscription solicitations for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution like other people get for their local newspaper.  We’re thinking he probably gets his news online.

Finals Week Crickets.  Yeah, this week is even worse than the last, as there’s no Jimmy V Classic nor SEC/Big East Invitational games to fill our schedule.  In fact, there’s not a single game involving two ranked teams until Saturday, so we’ll have to amuse ourselves in other ways this week.

Favors & the Ga Tech Freshman are Pretty Good (AP/Wade Payne)

Looking in at Georgia Tech’s Freshmen.  Georgia Tech 95, Chattanooga 64.  Not much of a game, but we thought since nothing else is going on tonight, this is a good opportunity to check in with the Ramblin’ Wreck’s talented corps of freshmen (A non-freshman, Gani Lawal had 29/7 to lead the Jackets in this game).  The jewel of the class, of course, was Derrick Favors, and he had a great night (14/10/3 assts/3 stls), right on par with his season averages of 14/8/2 blks on 68% shooting and an 18.0 efficiency rating.  Remember, Favors was considered to be right at the top of the Class of 2009 with John Wall, and is likely to be one of the top three picks in next year’s NBA Draft.  The surprise of Paul Hewitt’s class, however, has been Mfon Udofia, a 6’2 guard who has burst onto the scene his freshman year with 13/3/3 assts in a team-high 26 MPG — he contributed 10/2/3 assts tonight.  Two other new pieces at Tech’s disposal,  forward Brian Oliver and guard Glen Rice, Jr., are getting around twelve minutes per game and giving about 10/4 combined in their debut seasons.  This means that Hewitt is getting nearly half of the team’s production from his talented group of rooks.  Whether the young Jackets can keep it up throughout the rugged ACC is another question, but so far, so good, as GT is now 7-1 with its sole loss to an experienced Dayton team back in their second game of the year.  Tech fans must be excited about their future with this group.