It hasn’t been the easiest couple of weeks for Big 12 fans. Kansas may have fallen off the #1 seed line and Iowa State and Oklahoma are firmly on the bubble after the first full day of the conference tournament. What once looked like possibly six Big 12 teams in the Dance headlined with a #1 seed could now be four teams and no representation on the top line. Baylor’s hopes for an at-large bid were dashed after a phantom call on Phil Forte in the waning seconds of tonight’s game against Oklahoma State gave the Cowboys a 74-72 win. Unfortunately for the Bears, they still needed at least another win over Kansas State to make a serious case, so there won’t be any favors from the selection committee. Here’s where the potential NCAA Tournament teams stand and how they can improve their position heading into Friday’s action:

Bill Self and Kansas Have Ruled The Big 12 Tournament The Last Decade.

1. Kansas (27-5)

• What They Are Looking At: #2 seed
• Best Likely Scenario and Who The Need Help From: If the Jayhawks can win the Big 12 Tournament and beat Kansas State (#20 RPI) in the championship game, they could still land a #1 seed. The problem is, Kansas looks to be sandwiched between Louisville and Georgetown right now. If either of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, they would  get a #1 seed over the Jayhawks. If Kansas wins the Big 12 Tournament and neither of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, the Jayhawks will earn a top seed.
• Worst Case Scenario: #2 seed

2. Kansas State (26-6)

• What They Are Looking At: #4 seed
• Best Likely Scenario And Who They Need Help From: Kansas State has a great record but its resume doesn’t quite match. They’re currently the second-best #4 seed over at Bracket Matrix, but have fewer RPI top 50 wins (five) than teams directly above them in Ohio State (six), Marquette (seven) and New Mexico (eight). Even if the Wildcats beat Oklahoma State and Kansas to win the conference tournament, they’d still have as many top 50 wins as Marquette, which lost tonight to Notre Dame. If Ohio State and New Mexico lose in their first games of their conference tournaments, the Wildcats could sneak into a #3 seed with three wins in Kansas City.
• Worst Case Scenario: The record is nice, but with 10 wins coming against teams outside the RPI top 200 and a bad strength of schedule (#63), a loss tomorrow could earn them a #5 seed. Read the rest of this entry »

Danny Spewak (@dspewak) is a Big 12 microsite writer. He’s covering the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City this weekend.

Three Thoughts:

Did Iowa State Pop Oklahoma’s Bubble Thursday?

1. Complete Implosion: For more than 30 minutes, Iowa State looked like it had just rolled out of bed and stumbled into the arena, still waiting for the Five Hour Energy to kick in. The Cyclones could not have played more poorly in the first half, and they didn’t make a three-pointer until the very end of the first half. Shots were clanking off the rim left and right, the Sooners were bullying them in the paint and on the boards, and and it appeared Fred Hoiberg’s team was about to make NIT travel plans. Midway through the second half, Oklahoma led 60-48. And then disaster struck for Lon Kruger. The Sooners did not make a field goal over  the final 8:10 of the game, and Iowa State’s vaunted perimeter shooting finally awoke. With Korie Lucious on the bench after shooting 0-of-8 from the field, Will Clyburn began to run the offense, and he knocked down a few key shots late. Chris Babb did too, and Tyrus McGee shook off a tough morning to finally make a tie-breaking three-pointer late in the second half. All in all, the Cyclones finished the game on a 25-6 run, and they’re right in the thick of the NCAA Tournament at-large hunt. This was more than a comeback — it was a life-saving performance. 
2. Bubble Burst: We wrote yesterday that Iowa State probably had a little more of a sense of desperation in this game, but the Sooners really could have used this victory as well. They’re still in good shape with victories over Oklahoma State and Kansas — not to mention strong computer numbers — but this will not be an easy weekend for Kruger and his players. Either way, it’s been a heck of a turnaround for this program. Before the year, even an NIT berth seemed like somewhat of a reach. As for the Cyclones, they could probably seal a bid by knocking off Kansas in tomorrow’s semifinal. They’ll still be desperate, though, and that should make for an electric atmosphere at the Sprint Center. Speaking of that possible showdown…
3. Rematch: Iowa State blew a late lead against Kansas in Lawrence and lost in overtime, thanks in part to a buzzer-beating, banked-in three by Ben McLemore at the end of regulation. In the second match-up in Ames, a controversial no-call on a, well, obvious charge by Elijah Johnson late in the game made national headlines. Dare we say there’s a budding rivalry? “I can’t wait for the opportunity if they win today,” Clyburn said. “I want some payback.” Careful, though. Kansas still needs to beat Texas Tech this afternoon.

Star of the Game: Melvin Ejim. He was huge. The league’s leading rebounder, Ejim’s pride must have taken a hit when Oklahoma came out punching in the first half and dominated the rebounding margin. At one point, the Sooners were +9 on the boards, and that’s just not acceptable for a team that normally rebounds as well as ISU. As the game progressed, though, Ejim started to do his thing. Georges Niang had a few important offensive rebounds, too, and by the end of the game, Iowa State had out-rebounded Oklahoma by 10. Ejim scored 23 points to lead all scorers, too, and finished with 12 rebounds individually. Another day, another double-double for Ejim.

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Bob Huggins’ teams have always blocked out. Except for when there’s a game-winning shot attempt in the air, apparently. In a sequence that epitomized West Virginia’s season so much it seemed as though it had to have been some sort of sick joke, Texas Tech ended the Mountaineers’ brutal campaign with a tip-in by Dejan Kravic in the final milliseconds of regulation to win, 71-69. He was standing untouched in the paint after Josh Gray’s three-point attempt rimmed out. No body on him. No effort by the Mountaineers to hit the boards, as they were simply standing around as though time would expire before any potential rebound attempt. They guessed wrong, and the Red Raiders now advance to play top-seeded Kansas. There wasn’t as much drama in the nightcap, as Texas dispatched of TCU in an ugly 70-57 win. They’ll now play Kansas State this evening.

Bob Huggins Probably Had To Cry A Lot This Season

That’s where we stand after two play-in games in the Big 12 Tournament. No disrespect to the victors on Wednesday night, but now the real games begin. Remember to stay with the Big 12 microsite all weekend long, as microsite writer Danny Spewak (@dspewak) will arrive in Kansas City this morning to cover the tournament through the championship game on Saturday. But today, there’s two games you really need to keep an eye on: Oklahoma vs. Iowa State early and Baylor vs. Oklahoma State this evening. There will be drama in this tournament across the board, especially if Kansas and Kansas State play each other in a conference tournament final, but these are by far the two most important games of the Big 12 Tournament. The top three teams in the league are playing for seeding. Oklahoma, Iowa State and Baylor are playing for their lives. Let’s take a look at the resumes for each three bubble teams and explain what they’ll need to do in this tournament to feel OK on Selection Sunday:

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The Big 12 Tournament begins this evening with a highly-anticipated, once-in-a-lifetime showdown between 13-18 West Virginia and 10-19 Texas Tech. That’s followed by Texas vs. TCU, another elite matchup that might force the people of Texas to actually tune away from spring football practice and watch basketball. Doubtful. Even though conference tournament play-in rounds are often painful, the rest of the Big 12 Tournament may be as entertaining as ever in 2013.

Kansas won the league again, but it has company this year in the form of Kansas State, which technically shared the championship despite getting swept by the Jayhawks. Oklahoma State could win it. Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. There are several important storylines — like the potential of Kansas vs. Kansas State, Part III — and a lot of candidates to cut down the nets. Here’s a few of the reasons you need to tune in this weekend:

The Favorites Are All Vulnerable

The Big 12 is a simple conference this season. There are four bad teams. There are three decent teams on the bubble. Then, there are three ranked teams that make up the top of this league: Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The first two were “co-champs,” and the latter has the league Player of the Year in Marcus Smart. Bill Self told the Topeka Capitol-Journal that six teams in this league could win the tournament title, but realistically, these are the three teams you would want to put your money on. They’re all flawed in their own ways. Kansas, for example, sometimes forget how to score and looked bewildered in a 23-point loss at Baylor in the season finale. Read the rest of this entry »

1. It’s Big 12 Awards time! This has been one of the weirder Big 12 seasons in recent memory even though the team at the top is still the same (hi Kansas!) Perhaps the surprise in this was that neither the league player nor coach of the year originated from Lawrence. Marcus Smart is totally deserving of Big 12 POY as Oklahoma State’s Mr. Everything. Regardless of how many game-winners he’s hit, Smart is the type of player any program covets — talented and selfless. He is the first Cowboy since James Anderson (2009-10) and the first freshman since Blake Griffin (2008-09) to lock down the award. Bruce Weber won Big 12 Coach of the Year in his first season. Despite what happened on last year’s Illinois team, Weber is still a good coach. What may have been the most confusing hire a year ago is now paying immediate dividends for Kansas State.
2. Matt Norlander tells us that despite getting their tails kicked by Baylor, Kansas’ Bill Self is amazing at what he does. Yeah we all know the incredible success he’s had at KU but before he even arrived in Lawrence, Self certainly had his influence in other leagues as well. He won two of three regular season titles at both Tulsa and Illinois which makes 2012-13 his 13th league title in 15 years of coaching. He’s only 50 years old and already has over 500 wins as a head coach — when all is said and done, Self is my odds-on-favorite to eventually catch and pass Coach K in career wins.
3. Speaking of Baylor, with an at-large bid in limbo, they throttled Kansas Saturday in Waco. The Bears are now 18-13 and sport a 9-9 record in Big 12 play, but are probably still slotted for the NIT. How can they change that? They play their first game Thursday against Oklahoma State, and if they were to beat the Cowboys for a second time, it would set up a possible match-up with Kansas State on Friday. If they get past K-State, they’ll then have 20 wins including OSU (twice), KSU, Kansas and Kentucky. But again, these are too many “ifs” for a team currently living on the bubble.
4. When you’re a team like Oklahoma whose fate is pretty much decided, how can you find motivation heading into the postseason? Losing to TCU would just about do it. They fell behind 22 points at halftime and made as many three-pointers as I did on Saturday (0-for-16). OU appears to be a team safely into the tournament with a RPI of 33 and SOS of 18 but a good showing against Iowa State Friday would do wonders for the psyche.
5. What a difference Myck Kabongo makes for Texas. Before he returned for the Iowa State game on February 13, the Longhorns had two conference wins and now they have seven. With that said, is it crazy to think that Texas could make a run in the Big 12 Tournament? If they don’t win it, it would probably be for a run to the NIT but I could see it happening. The chances of Texas winning this tournament, according to TeamRankings.com, are at 1%. So, yes, I’m saying there’s a chance.

Chris Johnson is an RTC C0lumnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

The Weekend’s Lede. Regular Season Finale. The end is here. Sad, isn’t it? When I say end, I don’t mean the real end. That comes later, at the end of the greatest tournament in American sports. No, what I’m referring to is the regular season, the five-month long slog that took us through the uncertain fall months of non-conference play, across the New Year into a rugged conference landscape, and finally, into the brink of league tourney season. Other than the official crowning of regular season conference champions, select NCAA bids handed out in smaller leagues and a spate of meaningful bubble movement, nothing really happened over the weekend. It was sort of ordinary – if ordinary means a continuation of the craziness we’ve witnessed all season. So without further ado, I present your final regular season weekend ATB. Let’s have at it…

Your Watercooler Moment. The Big Ten Title Bout. 

A Big Ten Title was just one of the benefits Indiana will enjoy in the wake of a huge win at Michigan (Gettty Images).

The Big Ten regular season championship was up for grabs when the league’s five top teams (Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State) began action Sunday afternoon. The basic expectation was that Indiana, after being manhandled at home by Ohio State earlier this week, would lose at Michigan to open up the conference crown to all kinds of contingencies and x-way split scenarios. The Buckeyes wanted a piece of the pie; Tom Izzo’s team didn’t want to be left out; and the Wolverines, well, their fate was in their own hands. The thinking was absolutely on point – the Buckeyes showed Tuesday night in Bloomington what grit and defensive focus and physicality can do to the nation’s most efficient offense, how it can throw Victor Oladipo and Christian Watford into a funk and render the Hoosiers’ hot jump shooters mostly impotent for large stretches. The optics of IU’s postgame celebration – a major national talking point the next day, oddly enough – only increased the wackiness of the entire situation. IU had fallen in a game it was widely expected to win, and the postgame ceremony was expected to include not just a celebration of Indiana’s seniors, but also the official honoring of the Hoosiers’ first outright Big Ten title since 1993. It took another five days before checking that second box, but Indiana got its long-coveted conference title. The Hoosiers sunk Michigan (and its conference title hopes) in the final minute on a debilitating string of missed UM free throws, six consecutive IU points, a crucial layup from Cody Zeller and a whole lot of late-game savvy in front of a deafening Crisler Center crowd.

An outright conference title is just one of the prizes IU shored up Sunday. Another? The inside track on landing the Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis) hosting site for the NCAA Tournament, where red-and-white partisans will turn any IU game into a virtual home court advantage. Then there’s the NPOY implications – the fact that Oladipo, in the biggest game of the season, came up huge with 14 points, 13 rebounds (not to mention Zeller’s 25/10, if you still believe in Zeller’s outside shot at the POY awards) and his usual brand of supercharged defensive disruptiveness, and that Trey Burke just couldn’t get his team over the hump when it mattered most. Yes, Indiana won a lot more than standings supremacy over the nation’s toughest league. Just days after a puzzling loss, the Hoosiers now roll into postseason play with utmost confidence in their ability to make good on the preseason No. 1 ranking.

Also Worth Chatting About. Wildcats Buck up in Must-Win Finale.

The Wildcats seized the biggest resume boost available in the SEC by knocking off Florida at home (Getty Images).

Like any historically dominant sports entity, Kentucky has its share of location-agnostic dissidents within its sport. It is one of two teams, along with Duke, to drown in the national hatred. The Wildcats are blue, well-funded, a self-generating news cycle and in most seasons, good. Kentucky is good; oceans hold water; the sky is blue (you get the point). Making that argument would have seemed a bit silly for much of this season, with the possible exception of a mid-season stretch where the Wildcats tore off five straight wins, watched Nerlens Noel develop into a bona fide defensive star and potential lottery pick, and laid waste to most of the NCAA Tournament doubts heaved their way during an uninspiring non-conference performance. When Noel lost his season to an ACL injury in a road defeat at Florida, the stakes changed. Kentucky needed to show the selection committee that it belonged in the Tournament without its best and most important player. It needed to prove it was good, again. The only sign of goodness prior to Saturday from this current UK team came in an inspired overtime win over Missouri. The rest of the Wildcats’ Noel-less work, including road losses at Arkansas and Georgia, was less than inspiring. Kentucky had work to do before its at-large credentials could be considered even reasonably acceptable by selection committee standards.

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Just as Indiana planned on capturing the outright Big Ten championship and all but securing the #1 overall seed on Tuesday, the Hoosiers lost on senior night to Ohio State. Twenty-four hours later, Georgetown — a sexy pick lately to land a #1 seed — lost to Villanova, leaving the Hoyas’ chances at a top seed at a minimum heading into the Big East Tournament. The overall #1 seed now appears to be a three-way race between Indiana, Duke and Kansas. The Jayhawks have quietly won seven in a row and will win their ninth consecutive Big 12 championship with a victory at Baylor Saturday or a loss by Kansas State (which faces Oklahoma State on the road). Kansas will need to win out through the Big 12 Tournament and could benefit from losses by Indiana and Duke if they want the overall top seed, but a #1 seed seems close to a sure thing. That’s a far cry from a month ago. Here’s how I’d handicap the top seeds as of today.

Seven Straight Wins And Inconsistent Play From Everyone Else Has The Jayhawks In A Good Spot

Safe Bets For a #1 Seed

• Duke (26-4, 8-2 in last 10): Getting Ryan Kelly back was huge, especially with him dropping 36 points in his return, a big win at home over Miami.
• Indiana (25-5, 7-3 in last 10): Still the best team in the country, but the gap is closing. They need to beat Michigan this weekend to avoid losing three out of four.
• Kansas (26-4, 7-3 in last 10, won seven in a row): If they can win at Baylor and win the Big 12 Tournament it would be 11 wins in a row, locking up a #1 seed.

Still In The Hunt

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1. We’ve long been Rick Barnes apologists here on the Big 12 microsite. He’s an easy target for criticism, often slammed for not reaching his potential and wasting NBA talent at Texas. The word “overrated” is thrown around a lot with Barnes, and during this difficult season, he’s now in even more trouble from a public opinion standpoint. But at least one person agrees with us that it’s perhaps overkill to lay so much blame on Barnes for this season. Nobody’s claiming that Barnes is Bob Knight, but he’s done a terrific job in Austin for a sustained period of time. Myck Kabongo problems aside, he also had a roster solely consisting of freshmen and sophomores and knew he’d have some growing pains. When the NCAA suspended Kabongo for much of the season, the problems intensified, and it resulted in a disaster of sorts. Give Barnes some time to sort out his program. After a decade of winning at Texas, he deserves at least that much.
2. Bill Self has never endured the kind of struggles Barnes has gone through this year, but they’re similar in the respect that they’ve both won at several schools. Self, of course, has won a little bit more, and his journey from Oral Roberts to Tulsa to Illinois to Kansas has been an interesting one. It’s easy to point to what Self has accomplished in Lawrence, but sometimes, it’s nice to take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s refreshing to hear him talk about the early days at Oral Roberts, too, and it’s especially intriguing to consider the alternate possibilities in his career path. Had Self gotten the Missouri job in 1999, there’s no telling what the college basketball universe would look like right now.
3. Staying with the coaching theme, here’s a look at Lon Kruger, another renowned coach in the world of hoops. If there’s anyone who epitomizes the trite phrase “he-wins-everywhere-he’s-been,” it’s Kruger. He has his Oklahoma team on the verge of the NCAA Tournament, which isn’t a surprise to anybody. It is surprising, however, that it took only two years for Kruger to create a new culture of winning in Norman. Wyoming transfer Amath M’Baye and the freshmen additions have helped, but he’s gotten his returnees to buy in as well. At this point, he’s successfully cleaned up the mess created by the Jeff Capel fallout.
4. If Kansas State wins at Oklahoma State this weekend, it’ll clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title. It’ll take the outright crown with a Kansas loss. With a Jayhawks victory, though, the “tie” in the standings will be a “tie” in name only. Kansas swept its in-state rival, so it’ll be the real champion and the top seed. Of course, that won’t stop the Wildcats from celebrating, as long as they win themselves this weekend. And hey, the year Kansas won a national title in 2008, it tied Texas atop the standings but lost to the Longhorns in the head-to-head matchup (though they played only once — in Austin). At this point, Bruce Weber will take any hardware he can get in his first season in Manhattan.
5. West Virginia has clearly fallen this season — wanna know why? Here’s a pretty good assessment of the situation. Entering the 2012-13 season, the Mountaineers weren’t league contenders by any means, but they weren’t considered slouches, either. They had big-time transfers, an improving sophomore class and a team seemingly capable of playing for an NCAA Tournament berth. That hasn’t happened, and it’s interesting to look at some of the recruits who did not pan out and left Bob Huggins a little thin.

Jimmy Kelley is an ACC correspondent for Rush the Court. Follow him on Twitter @JimmyKelley_

Julius Randle is one of the biggest, fastest and most highly sought players in the class of 2013, but as of Wednesday afternoon, ACC teams don’t have to worry about seeing him next year on a daily basis. The five-star forward from Texas officially cut NC State from his final list, according to SNY‘s Adam Zagoria. Randle also cut Oklahoma from his list and is now down to four non-ACC schools: Kentucky, Kansas, Texas, and Florida. This deals a major blow to the hopes of Mark Gottfried’s incoming recruiting class and will stand to keep Duke’s impressive class at the top of the ACC.

Julius Randle has cut NC State from his final list. (Photo via PackInsider.com)

Zagoria’s report, which came from a conversation with a source in Texas, doesn’t change the fact that the Wolfpack still have a very impressive incoming class with three top-100 recruits in Anthony Barber, BeeJay Anya and Kyle Washington. What it does change is where the ceiling for NC State next year resides. Scott Wood and Richard Howell are graduating, C.J. Leslie will almost certainly go pro, and the status of Lorenzo Brown, Rodney Purvis and T.J. Warren could come down to the very last moments. Replacing any of those players, especially Howell and Leslie, will be very difficult, and a player with Randle’s impact would have been able to handle that responsibility better than Anya or Washington.

Randle spent a majority of his final prep season on the sideline with a foot injury but has returned to action in the last few weeks. He is expected to make a full recovery and be an immediate star for the team he decides to play for next season. Kentucky and Kansas are expected to be the front-runners for his services, and he would join star-studded classes at either school. No date has been set for his final decision but it could come late in the process as fellow five-star recruits Aaron Gordon and Andrew Wiggins mull over their own decisions. Both players are also reportedly considering Kentucky, which begs the question as to where all these superstar recruits would find enough playing time in John Calipari’s star-studded lineup?

1. Big news for Oklahoma: Buddy Hield will be back. He broke his foot earlier this year, and there was a question as to whether he’d play in a Sooners uniform again. However, there are now reports that he’s likely to return on Wednesday against West Virginia. Hield isn’t a household name among Big 12 circles yet, but he had given Lon Kruger an enormous boost during his freshman season before his injury. He ran the point well, played terrific defense and was as important as any player on the roster. Now that he’s back in the fold, Kruger has to feel better heading into the postseason.
2. Bob Huggins won’t make any excuses for his West Virginia team’s performance this season, but it’s undeniable that the Mountaineers’ move to the Big 12 had serious travel implications. The school is situated a long, long way from the rest of the conference, and getting places is a totally different ballgame compared to the Big East. The non-conference schedule added to all the travel, too: West Virginia began the season out west at Gonzaga, then took a trip to the Old Spice Classic in Orlando and later played at Duquesne and Purdue. Then think about all the flights in Big 12 play to the states of Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Oklahoma. Not an easy thing for a new member program.
3. Remember when Elijah Johnson was a worthless point guard and the root of all problems in the world? The guy who turned the ball over too much and caused all wars known to mankind? Those words are a little harsh, but the bottom line was that he hadn’t played very well at that point for Bill Self throughout the early winter and caught a lot of criticism for that very reason. Now, though, that’s all changed. After his legendary performance in Ames, Johnson had 12 assists against Texas Tech on Senior Night and appears to be hitting his stride. If he can continue to man the position along with Naadir Tharpe, Self will be able to sleep a heck of a lot better at night this March.
4. It’s now or never for Iowa State, which finds itself right on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament. No pressure though, guys. “Win these next two games for sure,” Korie Lucious told The Gazette. “That would help us. Then go into the conference tournament and win as many games as we can there — try to get that championship.” Fred Hoiberg had an interesting quote in this article too, about the Cyclones’ inability to get stops in key moments. That’s been the overlooked thing on this team all year. Iowa State has scorers, but there’s more work to do on the defensive end. That could dictate how the Cyclones finish the regular season.
5. Oklahoma State doesn’t have it easy right now. Sure, the Cowboys are in fine position heading into the NCAA Tournament, but they’re aiming for a two seed in Kansas City and have a tough road this week to get there. First, they’ve got to play a desperate Iowa State team (see above). Then it’s Kansas State at home on Senior Day. No matter what, though, Travis Ford has to feel good about where he’s at right now. He was the one coach in this league with whom we often threw the term “hot seat” around, and now that’s completely out the window. Kudos. Now, we’ll see where this season goes from here.