Purdue certainly has not dominated in many senses of the game this season and enters a crucial road game at Illinois on Tuesday without having won back-to-back games this calendar year. But while the Boilermakers have disappointed in some areas — they’re ninth in the conference in field goal offense and field goal defense, last in free throw percentage, and eleventh in rebounding margin — they’ve excelled at taking care of the basketball. After an 87-77 win against Northwestern on Sunday, the Boilermakers led the Big Ten with the fewest turnovers this season (219 total, 8.8 per game). Entering Tuesday night, they were second in the league in both turnover margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. As the bubble-bound Boilers grind through the rest of the season, taking care of the ball will certainly be key in games that come down to a possession or two.
Minnesota coach Tubby Smith has done a commendable job managing his team through the loss of Trevor Mbakwe and toward the NCAA Tournament. But there have been naysayers throughout his tenure in Minnesota and this year is no different. Could the Golden Gophers soon be going after a native son to lead the program? The St. Paul Pioneer Press‘ Charley Walters says, despite the fact that Minnesota alumnus Flip Saunders is unemployed, the former NBA coach is not chasing the Minnesota job. Not yet, at least.
Tom Izzo is a rare breed, there’s no question about that. But how many guys do you know who complain about days off? Izzo is one of them, and he spoke about it this week as Michigan State faces a grueling upcoming schedule with which Izzo is tasked with balancing NCAA guidelines for days off as well. The Spartans, who have five games coming up in 13 days, took Sunday off after upsetting Ohio State and then Monday to abide by the NCAA rules that say a team must take one day off per week. Izzo doesn’t like the situation, but he must be doing something right to have his Spartans where they are in Big Ten play.
Illinois certainly has the talent to compete with anybody in the Big Ten, but it’s the inconsistency that riles coach Bruce Weber and the Fighting Illini faithful. After holding Michigan State to just 41 points in an upset victory, Illinois has allowed an average of 76 points per game in three straight losses (to Northwestern, Indiana, and Michigan). Weber says that (what else?) the defense is the key to his club getting back on track.
When John Beilein took over the Michigan basketball program, he was challenged in recruiting and had a number of players under scholarship who never made it to their senior year with the team. Now, a few years have passed, and as Beilein has things under control, Michigan’s recruiting has really heated up. The Wolverines have a top-10 recruiting class in line for next season — including five-star power forward Mitch McGary — and more talent expected for the 2013 group. How exactly has he pulled it off?AnnArbor.com‘s Nick Baumgardner has the answer.
Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference. Follow him on Twitter (@Bill_Hupp) for his thoughts on hoops, food, PR, interesting fridge magnets and life.
Reader’s Take
The Week That Was:
House of Payne: Michigan State sophomore center Adreian Payne picked an excellent time to have the game of his career. The 6’11’’ sophomore has shown flashes of potential this year, but was particularly efficient against Ohio State. Payne finished 6-6 from the field for 15 points, grabbed four boards and blocked two shots – and more importantly, he frustrated Ohio State star Jared Sullinger with his wiry athleticism on the defensive end. Sure, Sullinger finished with 17 points and 16 rebounds, but he also turned it over 10 times and seemed to let the refs affect his play.
Woes of Weber: That smoke you see emanating from Champaign might be coming from Bruce Weber’s increasingly hot seat. New AD Mike Thomas has already shown one under-performing head coach (Ron Zook) the door, and now the Illini have gone from leading the Big Ten at 4-1 to dropping six of their last seven and in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. As many Illinois fans will attest, this team just makes too many of the same frustrating mistakes on a continuous basis.
Hummel A Handful: The Robbie Hummel that Boilermaker fans have been waiting for all season long finally emerged on Saturday against Northwestern. The senior tallied a season-high 27 points, nine rebounds and a couple blocks while logging 39 minutes of playing time. As badly as Northwestern needed to win that game, it was equally as valuable to Purdue, which couldn’t afford drop back-to-back games at Mackey Arena (especially with Michigan State coming to town in a week).
Tom Izzo Has The Spartans Vying For The Top Spot In The Conference.
Power Rankings
Michigan State (20-5, 9-3) – An even more impressive factor in Michigan State’s recent success is that they’re winning despite the shaky play of Keith Appling. The sophomore point guard seemed to be turning the corner in his new position early in the conference season, but he’s taken a few steps back since then. His accuracy from distance has slipped from 41% to 27% this season, and he had seven turnovers with no assists in their win over Ohio State.
Ohio State (21-4, 9-3) – Where has the Bucks’ offense gone? In two of their last three games, OSU has been held under 53 points. Granted, their opponents were defensive stalwarts Wisconsin and Michigan State, but still, this a team that is second in the Big Ten in scoring offense at nearly 73 points per game. Read the rest of this entry »
Michigan State currently has control of the Big Ten after the Spartans’ hard-fought 58-48 win at Ohio State on Saturday. Michigan State used a combination of great defense, hustle plays, and just-effictive-enough offense to down the Buckeyes and end their 39-game home winning streak. So, has the question of how to beat Ohio State been answered? Give the Spartans tons of credit for their game plan, but William Buford and company didn’t do themselves any favors. Having Buford and Deshaun Thomas both go 2-12 from the field obviously hurt the Buckeyes.
One key player Spartan head coach Tom Izzo knew he would need a great effort from was sophomore center Adriean Payne. The Dayton native was expected to supply critical defense on Jared Sullinger, and Payne and his defensive counterparts were effective forcing Sullinger into 10 turnovers. What the Spartans didn’t expect was for Payne to go 6-for-6 from the field and finish with a career-high 15 points. Given the chance to play in front of his family and friends in his home state, Payne made the most of his opportunity.
One team preparing for their second shot at Ohio State will be Michigan, and the Wolverines will have plenty of time to do it. Coming off their 70-61 win over Illinois, John Beilein‘s club remains undefeated at home this season and will have six days to prepare for Ohio State. Beilein admits that getting that much rest at this point in the season can be beneficial as guys can rest their legs a bit. But Michigan doesn’t want to get out of the groove they are currently in especially junior guard Matt Vogrich, a 20% three-point shooter this season who has gone 5-for-5 from three in the last two games.
While there was plenty of celebration for Penn State after their win over Nebraska this weekend, there was some sad news in Happy Valley as junior forward Billy Oliver announced he will end his playing career. Oliver is struggling with recuring symptoms related to his history of concussions and migraine headaches and after talking with coach Pat Chambers Oliver decided to hang it up. His roommate Tim Fraizer was saddened by his decision, but agreed that Oliver is doing what is best for him.
March is only a couple of weeks away, and teams are gauging their NCAA Tournament chances with every win and loss. Minnesota is a team that many experts thought didn’t have much of a chance of qualifying for the Tournament a couple of months ago, but the Gophers have a chance to earn their way in with some quality wins. They will have plenty of chances to do that, with four of their last six opponents currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25. It will take some upsets, but Tubby Smith and his crew know the road that lays before them if they want to go dancing again this year.
We are starting to see things shake themselves out in the Big Ten standings, but all it takes is one full slate of games to change that in a flash. There’s a nice lineup on Thursday night, so let’s take a look at the implications of three games around the conference.
#23 Wisconsin at Minnesota, 7 PM ET
It has certainly been a topsy-turvy season of sorts for the Badgers, who have been uncharacteristically mediocre at home, but made up for it with staunch play on the road. This is another test for Wisconsin as it tries to keep pace atop the standings and a critical game for Minnesota’s NCAA Tournament chances. The Golden Gophers are on the bubble with a tough road ahead so they need to capitalize on all reasonable home opportunities with a return date set in Madison for February 28. The Badgers can put the conference’s top scoring defense to the test, while Minnesota — shooting 36% this season, third in the conference, from 3-point range — will try to knock the Badgers down from deep. This game comes down to how well Minnesota, 10th in the Big Ten in turnover margin, protects the ball at home against a stingy Badgers defense.
Illinois at #22 Indiana, 8 PM ET
These teams are neck-and-neck in the standings, 3 1/2 games behind first-place Ohio State, but Illinois needs this one just a bit more than Indiana. That said, with the way the Hoosiers have performed at home versus Illinois’ inconsistent play, it will be a tall order for Bruce Weber‘s group. It’s the lone meeting of the year between these two groups, and the Fighting Illini are sure to need another heroic effort out of Brandon Paul (he has scored in double figures in each of his Big Ten games) to keep up with Indiana’s high-flying offense. A loss Thursday and the Hoosiers just may switch places with the Illini in terms of NCAA Tournament chances.
Illinois is going to need a big effort out of Brandon Paul at Indiana. (Joe Robbins/Getty)
Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference. Follow him on Twitter (@Bill_Hupp) for his thoughts on hoops, food, PR, various city river walks and life.
Reader’s Take
The Week That Was:
Halfway Home: As of this week, the regular season conference schedule is officially more than halfway done. And – with apologies to Dennis Green– teams are pretty much who we thought they were at the beginning of the season. Ohio State is the class of the conference; Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana are solid NCAA Tournament teams; Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern are fighting for seeding while Iowa, Nebraska, and PennState pick up the rear. Of course, there have been some upsets and many compelling games, but now that the dust is starting to settle, the cream of the crop has risen to the top.
Super Shurna: Leave it to a savvy veteran to catch fire at just the right time. With Northwestern’s hopes of making its first NCAA Tournament fading fast, John Shurna won co-Big Ten Player of the Week honors after he shot a blistering 71% from the field and averaged 26 points, four rebounds, and two steals to lead the injury-depleted Wildcats to a home win over Nebraska and a road victory over Illinois. Shurna is up there with Michigan State’s Draymond Green and Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor as the most valuable players to their respective teams.
Close Calls: Illinois may be struggling at the moment, but they aren’t getting blown out. Each of the Illini’s last six games has been decided by five points or less. Unfortunately for the Orange Crush, they are just 2-4 in those games. Now they get to go on the road for four of their next five, starting with a doozy of a week with games at Indiana and at Michigan.
Will Draymond Green And The Spartans Snap Ohio State's Impressive Winning Streak In Columbus Saturday? (Al Goldis/AP)
Power Rankings
Ohio State (21-3, 9-2) – With the amount of scoring options Thad Matta has, it’s really just a matter of if Ohio State wants to defend you. They didn’t do that against Indiana or Brandon Paul (though he was just on fire that day), and sure enough, they lost both games.Purdue gave the Scarlet-and-Gray all they could handle before OSU escaped with an 84-81 win.Buckeyes face an interesting test when Michigan State comes calling to Columbus on Saturday. A win would put them in a comfortable position to win the regular season crown.
Michigan State (18-5, 7-3) – All of East Lansing waited with baited breath to learn the results of Draymond Green’s MRI. After Green left the game with a minor knee injury, Michigan State struggled mightily in a 42-41 upset loss.They bounced back nicely against their in-state rivals, and sure enough, Green led them with 14 points and 16 boards. As good a season as State has had, it could be even better: Two of the three conference losses have been by a single point on the road. Read the rest of this entry »
In this weekly piece we will be comparing blind tournament résumés. Each week we will take three Pac-12 teams that are on the bubble and compare them to three national teams that are facing the same fate. Since the Pac-12 is in such a down year, we realize that we are going to run out of NCAA Tournament bubble teams pretty quickly. That’s why in the coming weeks you will see some NIT and even CBI bubble predictions. We know that we aren’t the only Pac-12 basketball degenerates around here, and we understand that most of you could easily guess the Pac-12 team by seeing their good wins, record, etc. That’s why we’re putting a new twist to these résumés; You won’t see any records or team names, instead, those will be replaced by winning percentage and the RPI rank of their opponents. If you’re confused, read on anyway. We’ll give you all the answers after revealing to whom the résumés really belong to.
*All numbers and rankings as of February 3
Team 1
Team 2
Winning Percentage: .727
Winning Percentage: .760
RPI: 89
RPI: 38
SOS: 152
SOS: 58
Quality Wins (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 18, 59, 81
Quality Wins (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 20
Bad Losses (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 127, 144
Bad Losses (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 141, 110
Take a quick glance at both résumés and it appears that team two is the logical choice here. Their winning percentage is only slightly better, but the key lies in the RPI and SOS numbers. Team two boasts an RPI ranking that is 47 spots ahead of their counterpart, and their SOS is 94 spots better. The lack of quality wins is the only thing I have reservations about. Click the jump to see whom the résumés really belong to.
Breathe easy, Michigan State fans — it looks like senior captain Draymond Greenwill be able to go on Sunday against rival Michigan. The Spartans are coming off a one-point loss at Illinois this week (Green left the floor with a knee injury with just under four minutes remaining and did not return), and dropped a one-point contest in Ann Arbor on January 17. It’s a must-win for the Spartans if they want any chance at a share of the Big Ten title, and it seems improbable that they’d be able to do it without Green. In addition to unquestionably being the heart and soul of the group, Green also currently ranks in the top 15 among Big Ten players in nine categories.
Good news for Big Ten basketball fans: Game tickets are in extremely high demand. Bad news: They’re in such high demand that scalpers have gone to lengths to reproduce counterfeit tickets. According to Bob Baptist of the Columbus Dispatch, Ohio State officials have warned fans that there are a number of counterfeit tickets circulating, particularly for Ohio State’s February 11 game against Michigan State and late-February game against Wisconsin (both are sold out).
In much more uplifting conference news, four Big Ten players were honored as an NCAA Division I Academic All-District selection by the College Sports Information Directors of America. Michigan’s Zack Novak, Ohio State’s Aaron Craft and Northwestern’s Drew Crawford were recipients out of District 5, and Wisconsin’s Jared Berggren was a recipient out of District 6. Craft is second in the conference in assists and first in steals, Crawford is averaging 17.4 points per game, Novak averages 33.6 minutes per game and Berggren is averaging 10.5 points and 5.1 rebounds per game.
They say it’s not how you start, but how you finish. If that’s the case, Indiana has some work to do on both. The Hoosiers fell victim to a disastrous beginning and end of their game against Michigan this week, resulting in yet another Big Ten road loss for Tom Crean. Michigan led by as much as 20 before Indiana snapped out of it and eventually narrowed the margin to two. But Michigan controlled the late stages of the game, as well, resulting in the double-digit margin of victory. One thing is for sure: If Indiana is to start closing road games, a fully efficient 40 minutes will be necessary.
There was an important change at the top of the Minnesota athletic department this week, as Joel Maturi announced his retirement as athletic director. But fifth-year Golden Gophers basketball coach Tubby Smith told the Star Tribune that he doesn’t expect the shift at the top to affect his job status as head coach. “Oh, I’ll be back here,” Smith told the paper. “[University President] Dr. [Eric] Kaler and I have visited some early in the year. Certainly this is the right place for me and my family. … We’ve had our share of mis-steps and disappointments, losses, injuries and departures. All those things go into play when you start to make decisions, but I expect to be back here.” Smith, who won the national championship in his first year at Kentucky in 1997-98, is 96-56 in a somewhat tumultuous tenure at Minnesota. The Gophers are 16-6 this season, but have been without double-double machine Trevor Mbakwe since November 27.
Both Purdue and Michigan have been trying some lineup experiments over the last few days, and one team is seeing immediate benefits while the other may still be trying to work out the kinks. The Wolverines are now 3-2 with senior guard Stu Douglass in the starting lineup after beating Indiana on Wednesday night, and sophomore forward Evan Smotrycz starting on the bench. Purdue, meanwhile, is a perfect 1-0 with a smaller lineup that features basically Robbie Hummel and four guards. The new-look Boilermakers will surely be tested this weekend against Indiana’s Cody Zeller down low.
Jordan Taylor receives a bulk of the credit when it comes to Wisconsin‘s backcourt — and rightfully so — but Taylor knows fully well that he wouldn’t have his level of success without a lesser-known Badger: George Marshall. The freshman, a redshirt this season, has been instrumental on the scout team, writes Jim Polzin of the Wisconsin State Journal, particularly in imitating opposing teams’ best backcourt player. This week, that meant Penn State’s Tim Frazier. Marshall must have done his job well, as the Badgers rattled off their sixth straight win with a victory against the Nittany Lions.
Nebraska coach Doc Sadler has a simple explanation for why his club’s free throw percentage is at 75%, considerably higher than the average of 69.1% in his first five seasons. “The right guys are getting fouled, I guess,” he told the Omaha World-Herald. Nebraska leads the conference in free throw shooting and is 21st in the country in that statistic. The Huskers only have three Big Ten wins to their credit, but if they keep up that performance from the charity stripe, it could help account for a few more.
Michigan State fans are surely thrilled with the news that senior Draymond Green‘s knee injury does not appear to be serious and that he could practice this week before a big Sunday showdown against Michigan. Green tweaked his left knee in the final minutes of Tuesday night’s loss to Illinois and did not return to the game. The versatile forward is averaging 14.9 points, 10.3 rebounds (tops in the conference), 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game this season for the Spartans.
Minnesota, which is capitalizing on every spark it can find as the Golden Gophers try to bounce back from a discouraging Big Ten start, is relying heavily on the burst of Chip Armelin. “He’s one of our worst three-point shooters, but now since we’ve been playing in the Big Ten he’s been one of our better three-point shooters and he’s got a lot of confidence,” coach Tubby Smith said of the sophomore, who had six points and four rebounds Wednesday against Iowa.
We’re halfway home in Big Ten conference play and it’s easy to argue that the conference race is no more sorted out now than it was on day one. But we can still take a good, hard look at how teams have performed and what we can reasonably expect from them the rest of the way. Here’s our midseason team evaluations, grading each squad on its overall performance through the non-conference slate and first half of Big Ten play. We also have offer a best- and worst-case scenario for each club the rest of the way, as well as a more reasonable expectation.
Illinois (16-6 overall, 5-4 Big Ten)
Overall Grade: B
Worst-case scenario: Illinois beats Northwestern this week, but wins just three more games the rest of the way (at Nebraska, against Purdue and against Iowa).
Best-case scenario: The Fighting Illini maintain homecourt advantage the rest of way, handling Purdue and Michigan and stealing back-to-back road wins in Ann Arbor and Bloomington to pad their resume.
Reasonable expectation: With trips to Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin remaining, the Illini have an uphill climb ahead of them. And that’s not good news for Bruce Weber.
Indiana (17-5 overall, 5-5 Big Ten)
Crean Has Indiana Looking Up But He Needs Some Road Wins
Overall Grade: B+
Worst-case scenario: The Hoosiers continue to struggle on the road, and lose at Michigan, Purdue and Minnesota. Sprinkle a home loss to Michigan State in there, and they finish with a 9-9 conference record. The Goodwill stores in Bloomington are overwhelmed with once-trendy “We’re Baaaaack” t-shirts.
Best-case scenario: Cody Zeller finds the mojo he was working with early in the season, and leads the Hoosiers to the Sweet Sixteen as Tom Crean is named Big Ten Coach of the Year.
Reasonable expectation: The Hoosiers are not the Top 10 team many thought they suddenly were early on, but they can do enough to get into the NCAA Tournament and solidify an overachieving season.
Iowa (11-11 overall, 3-6 Big Ten)
Overall Grade: C+
Worst-case scenario: The Hawkeyes split meetings against Penn State and Northwestern, lose at Nebraska and are blown out by Indiana and Wisconsin at home.
Best-case scenario: Iowa picks up the pace against some of the weakest competition in the league, and goes 5-4 the rest of the way.
Reasonable expectation: Most of the heavy lifting is out of the way, but Iowa will hover around .500 the rest of the season.
