­­­­Steve Fetch is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12. You can also find his musings online at Rock Chalk Talk or on Twitter @fetch9.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was

• Texas A&M Plays Well Without Middleton: With star forward Khris Middleton out nursing a knee injury Texas A&M handled themselves well in New York, narrowly losing to Mississippi State and beating St. John’s. With Middleton out, defense has been the name of the game for the Aggies, who have not allowed an opponent to score a point per possession yet. Unfortunately for the Aggies, they only have scored more than a point per possession in two of their four games. Offensively the Aggies have rebounded reasonably well without Middleton, but have  been unable to score consistently. They had just a 46.7% eFG vs. St. John’s and a 46.3% against Mississippi State.
• Top-Flight Tigers: Missouri has scored 83, 81, and 83 points in their first three games. Granted they have played Southeast Missouri State, Mercer, and Niagara, but with each of the games being around 70 possessions, the Tiger offense has been clicking in midseason form. They are still playing about as quickly as they did under Mike Anderson, and still are taking care of the ball extremely well (their 14.6% turnover rate is 15th-best nationally). They are only shooting 45.7% from two, however, so it will be interesting to see how well they can score when their 48.3% three point percentage regresses a bit.
• Heavyweight Match-ups Approaching?: As I mentioned in the poll question, a number of Big 12 teams will be participating in holiday tournaments. Kansas faces Georgetown in the Maui Invitational, and with either UCLA or Chaminade waiting in the second round, a championship match-up with Duke (or perhaps a 2008 national title game rematch with Memphis) is a real possibility. Texas lost to Oregon State in the Legends Classic semifinals, but should be very encouraged by the play of J’Covan Brown, who is averaging almost 30 points per game on over 50% shooting so far this year.

Tyshawn Taylor Was KU's Top Performer In Its Loss To Kentucky Last Week.

Power Rankings

1. Kansas (1-1): Despite having Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson, two enigmatic guards, as their primary ball handlers, the Jayhawks have turned it over fewer than all but four teams in the country. Oddly enough, though, they are getting their shots blocked more often than all but 15 teams in the country. Playing Kentucky will do that, but with Thomas Robinson and seven- footer Jeff Withey in the middle it should not be happening this much. The Jayhawks have been good defensively despite opponents shooting nearly 42% from three so once that regresses a bit the Jayhawks should be one of the stingiest defensive teams in America.
2. Baylor (3-0): The Bears struggled to put San Diego State away, but with Perry Jones III suspended that is not that unexpected. Though Baylor is probably the most talented team in the conference, its ceiling is limited because of their lack of consistent guard play. Baylor is turning it over on 23.3% of their possessions so far, which is above the 20% teams generally strive to maintain. Baylor does have a lot of size and length inside though, which contributes to them allowing opponents to shoot only 34.2% from two. Read the rest of this entry »

With all the holiday tournaments going on this week, it’s time to take a look at the tournaments involving Big 12 teams.

CBE Classic: Missouri

Opening Round Opponent: vs. Notre Dame, Monday 6:30 p.m. CT

Down the Road: vs. Cal/Georgia, Tuesday

First-year head coach Frank Haith will get his first taste of real competition at Missouri this week, as his Tigers square off against Notre Dame on Monday night. The Irish are undefeated, but their only marquee victory came against a solid Detroit team at home by six points. They’ve completed their 4-0 run without forward Tim Abromaitis, who was suspended by the NCAA for participating in an exhibition game a few years ago. Monday will mark the senior’s first game back, however, and he changes the entire dynamic of the lineup. He was preseason First Team All-Big East selection, after all. Abromaitis is one of just two returning starters for Mike Brey along with Scott Martin, while Missouri, of course, returns just about everybody from an NCAA Tournament team. The Tigers have picked up Haith’s new style of play quickly so far, but we’ll have to wait until tonight to judge this team’s true progress.

Frank Haith Faces His First Test at Missouri

Pre-Season NIT: Oklahoma State

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The college basketball season is still young for the ten Big 12 schools. They have only played 19 games collectively, losing two of them. That being said, as college basketball nerds, it is never too early to start to analyze what we’ve seen thus far. So, I’d like to introduce a new weekly column, Big 12 Alley-Oops and Airballs. Every Wednesday I’ll examine which individuals and teams have been playing so well they fall under the “alley-oops” category, and which individuals and teams’ play has been so dismal that they fall under the “airball” category. Here’s the list for Week One.

J'Covan Brown Headlines Our "First Alley-Oops and Airballs".

Alley-Oops

• J’Covan Brown: Coming into this season, all eyes of Texas were upon Brown, as he was expected to be the leader of this young Longhorn team. So far, Brown has done more than just lead on the court — he’s dominated on it. Brown is averaging 31.5 PPG, and leads the Big 12 in total points, field goals, and per-game average.
• Kim English’s Three Ball: Missouri fans have openly worried about English’s three-pointer, as his three-point percentage has declined each year since his freshman season. So far, it appears that “Kimmeh” has worked out some of the kinks in his shot, as he has already drained nine from downtown this season, with a three-point percentage at 60%.

1. As the early signing period winds down, the folks at NBE Basketball decided to analyze the Big 12’s success this year on the recruiting trail. Two Texas schools hit it big. UT scored the top-ranked class in the league, as coach Rick Barnes hauled in a terrific group of forwards. Once again, Baylor’s Scott Drew made noise in the recruiting game, signing stud center Isaiah Austin to come to Waco. The best guard in the group might be Oklahoma State’s Marcus Smart, a physical five-star recruit in the mold of former Cowboy, John Lucas, III.
2. A few weeks ago, Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant made headlines by playing a flag football game on the Oklahoma State campus. Now, he may make even more waves in Big 12 country. Apparently, Durant and a group of NBA players are organizing an exhibition game in Waco. It’s slated for Dec. 1, and John Wall, Tracy McGrady, Jason Terry and several other players will participate. With no NBA basketball to watch, this is a prime opportunity for basketball fans in Texas to see the game’s top stars. Tickets cost only $14, so it’s an incredible deal in the midst of this lockout.
3. Frank Haith was obviously not the most popular hire in the world, but Missouri fans may finally be warming up to him a bit. Off to a 2-0 start already with wins over Southeast Missouri and Mercer, Haith seems to have won over his players and could win over his fan base if he continues his winning ways. Haith’s mediocre record at Miami and the ensuing Nevin Shapiro scandal has hurt his reputation, but he’s done a decent job of damage control lately. In fact, it seems as though all of that talk has just about blown over now that the games have begun.
4. It’s early — really early — but the guys at Big12hoops.com have already put together power rankings for the league. We haven’t learned a whole lot about any one team yet, but it is interesting to see Texas in their fifth slot. Now 2-0, UT hasn’t knocked off any worldbeaters, but J’Covan Brown‘s early performances have been nothing short of shocking. We knew he’d be good, but averaging 30 points per game? That’s a gamer right there.
5. One of the more unknown teams in the league right now is Oklahoma State. We’re not quite sure what to expect out of the Cowboys, as much of it depends on LeBryan Nash’s play as well as their newcomers in the front court. As OSU’s student newspaper mentions, it’ll be obvious right away whether these Cowboys can play thanks to a difficult non-conference schedule. Currently in the midst of the Preseason NIT, Oklahoma State has a chance to make its mark immediately on the national scene with games against two power conference schools among Stanford, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. It will also play Pittsburgh and Alabama in coming weeks.

For the past several weeks, we’ve pretended to be experts on the Big 12 Conference here. You likely disagree with most (if not all) of our arguments, and we’ve probably made statements bold enough to send you away from RTC and never come back. If you’re still here, though, the 2011-12 season looks promising in the Big 12. It’s a wide-open league with multiple championship contenders, and it’s also a league in transition with Missouri and Texas A&M departing after the season. The realignment apocalypse has subsided for now, and we’ve got real basketball to talk about now for the next five months. As we begin our quest this season, however, let’s take a look back at our fearless predictions this fall:

The Big 12 Streak is in Tyshawn Taylor's Hands Now

RTC Big 12 Predictions

1. Kansas
2. Baylor
3. Texas A&M
4. Missouri
5. Texas
6. Kansas State
7.  Oklahoma State
8. Iowa State
9. Oklahoma
10.  Texas Tech

RTC All-Big 12 First Team

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Predicted finish: 7th

2010-11 Record: 20-14, 6-10 (9th, Big 12)

Head coach: Travis Ford, 4th season

Key losses: G Ray Penn (5.9 PPG), F Marshall Moses (14.1 PPG), F Matt Pilgrim (5.4 PPG)

OSU Needs a Big Year from Freshman LeBryan Nash

The Stars: Although he has not played a single minute of college basketball, freshman phenom LeBryan Nash might already be the best player on Oklahoma State’s team. At 6’7”, the wing can do just about anything on a basketball court. Coach Travis Ford says Nash may even see time as a point-forward, simply because he’s such a dynamic player with the basketball. An obvious contender for Freshman of the Year honors both in the Big 12 and nationally, the Cowboys will rely on Nash quite a bit to lead them in the scoring department.

The Veterans: Since arriving in Stillwater as a freshman in 2008-09, Keiton Page has played important minutes for Ford during the past three seasons. With a 5’9” frame and a young face, Page doesn’t always seem to fit in on the basketball court, but he’s grown into a productive starter at guard. He’s known primarily for his shooting ability, but he added a new element to his game last year by increasing his free throw attempts and getting to the basket. Problem is, Page didn’t shoot very well from beyond the arc in 2010-11 (30.4 percent), so that number has to improve for him to have a standout senior season.

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Steve Fetch of Rock Chalk Talk is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12. You can find him on Twitter @fetch9.

Reader’s Take I

Top Storylines

• This is of course the last year for Texas A&M to leave its mark on the Big 12, and it could be Missouri’s as well. Both teams enter the 2011-12 season with serious conference title hopes,  but each comes with some question marks. Missouri lost Laurence Bowers to an ACL injury, which really puts a strain on their interior depth. They didn’t rebound terribly well in the first place, ranking 317th nationally in defensive rebounding, and the loss of the 6’8” Bowers, who was their best returning player on the glass, won’t help. A&M meanwhile still has Khris Middleton, but do they have anyone to get him the ball? Dash Harris had a turnover rate of almost 30% last year and an assist rate of only 21%
• Speaking of those two, the Big 12 has four new coaches this year, with Texas Tech and Oklahoma joining A&M and Missouri as teams with new head men. The Big 12 hasn’t had this many new coaches since 2007 when six of the twelve schools had first-year men on the job. I took a look at  how coaches in the Big 12 have done in their first year on the job and compared it with the historical performances of the programs who have new coaches at the helm this season, and it looks like all four could be in for rough times initially.
• Kansas has won at least a share of the last seven Big 12 titles, but in order or the Jayhawks to make it eight, Bill Self will have to do his best coaching job yet. He lost both the Morris twins and Josh Selby to the NBA, as well as the underrated Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar to graduation. What’s more, incoming freshmen Ben McLemore, Jamari Traylor and Braeden Anderson were all deemed ineligible. Kansas still has some talent to work with, especially Thomas Robinson, who had a tremendous summer.

Even Bill Self Has Admitted That This Season Will Be A Challenge For The Perennial Blueblood

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Kansas (14-4)
2. Baylor (13-5)
3. Missouri (13-5)
4. Texas A&M (12-6)
5. Oklahoma State (10-8)
6. Texas (9-9)
7. Iowa State (7-11)
8. Kansas State (5-13)
9. Oklahoma (4-14)
10. Texas Tech (3-15)

All-Conference Team (key stats from last season in parentheses)

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Today the RTC preseason All-America Team was announced, and it contains three sophomores on its first team who could have been viable 1-and-done prospects last spring had the NBA’s labor situation not been so tenuous. Those players are Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger, Kentucky’s Terrence Jones, and North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes. The second team has two more — Connecticut’s Jeremy Lamb and Baylor’s Perry Jones, III. The third team has two players who may declare for the NBA Draft after this, their freshman, season — Duke’s Austin Rivers and Kentucky’s Anthony Davis.

Battles Like These Between Barnes & Jones Could Become the Two-Year Norm (Getty/C.Trotman)

It’s no secret that the top talent in college basketball these days tends to skew younger, as our inclusion of seven freshmen and sophomores to our three preseason All-America teams clearly exhibits. In a different year assuming those five sophomores were already in the NBA, we might have included more freshmen such as Connecticut’s Andre Drummond or Oklahoma State’s LeBryan Nash on our list. But we didn’t have to, and the reason for this is that the pool of talent is deeper this season than it has been for the last five years, in the same way that the last half-decade was more talented than the prep-to-pros era of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Now, imagine if the following players were also back: Duke’s Kyrie Irving, Texas’ Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph, Kentucky’s Brandon Knight, Tennessee’s Tobias Harris, Kansas’ Josh Selby. You see where we’re going with this. And the NBA brass, always thinking about its own worldwide marketing of star players and its bottom line, does too. According to Chad Ford over at ESPN Insider, one of the few areas of consensus among the key folks in the ongoing NBA owner and labor negotiations is that 1-and-done is likely on its last legs. Two-and-Through appears to be the new standard. From Ford’s piece:

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Last week we examined the sixty or so major programs that Vegas feels is worth offering as action to win the 2011-12 national championship. Unsurprisingly, the top several teams in the preseason Coaches Poll — North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio State, Duke, Syracuse — generally mimic the top several teams in terms of the odds Vegas is offering. The one stunning exception to that trend is Connecticut, whom the pollsters have listed among the few teams most likely to cut the nets down in New Orleans next April, but from whom the oddsmakers still aren’t seeing much value (+2000, or a 4.8% chance, as of now).

This week we’ll take a step further into the odds and consider the probabilities that Vegas has assigned to each power conference team to win its regular season championship. These odds are by no means foolproof. In reviewing last year’s preseason tables of the same six leagues, only Pittsburgh in the Big East and Arizona in the Pac-10 were favorites that came into the money by March. The other four league favorites this time last year? Try Duke in the ACC (UNC), Baylor/Kansas State in the Big 12 (Kansas), Michigan State in the Big Ten (Ohio State), and Kentucky in the SEC (Florida). So while all of these favorites looked reasonable one year ago today, keep in mind that college basketball seasons have a tendency to work themselves out differently despite what the oddsmakers and pundits think.

Ed. note: These odds are published on The Greek as of October 27, 2011. If you’re unfamiliar with how futures odds work, +150 represents the amount of money a potential gambler would receive back if he placed a $100 wager on that team and it won.  He would, in other words, win back 1.5 times his original wager.  Those few teams sporting a negative odds notation (e.g., -175) represents a situation where someone would have to wager $175 to win back $100. Since the aggregate of futures odds are designed to add up to a figure much larger than 100% (removing the incentive to wager on every team), we’ve added a far right column normalizing the odds to a true 100% value for each conference.    

ACC

Quick Thoughts on the ACC:

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LeBryan Nash: The Essentials

• Class: Freshman
• Position: Forward
• Height: 6’7”
• Weight: 230 pounds
• Hometown: Dallas, TX
• Rivals.com Accolades: #6 overall, Class of 2011
• High school statistics: 22 PPG, 8.7 RPG (2010-11)

The Breakdown

With leading scorer Marshall Moses graduating from a 9th-place team a year ago and only two seniors on the current roster, there’s only one reason Oklahoma State has a shot to shock the Big 12 this season. That reason? It’s got a name.  LeBryan Nash. Sure, coach Travis Ford has a couple of veteran leaders in J.P. Olukemi and Keiton Page, but his team has a chance for a special season if Nash plays like the superstar freshman most believe he is. The first thing that jumps out about Nash is his perfectly athletic build. At 6’7”, he blends his explosiveness, physicality and toughness to dominate on both ends of the floor.

LeBryan Nash is the X-Factor For Oklahoma State

Nash isn’t known primarily as a perimeter shooter, but that’s another skill he will provide for the Cowboys. His forte is slashing and attacking the basket, and due to his strength and size, he’s a nightmare for any defender to handle on-on-one. Like many elite athletes, some scouts worry about Nash’s attitude. One scout even called his body language “awful” during a game, but Nash apparently has admitted that his attitude is something he is consciously working on. It doesn’t necessarily make Nash a team cancer or a bad person; it’s just hard to stay level-headed when you’ve been dominant athletically for so long.

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