It is practically March, isn’t it? We’re just four days away. You can almost feel the bubble shrink as at-large hopefuls drop games they shouldn’t be dropping and simultaneously expand whenever a recent winning streak is validated with a big win. As of now, the Big 12’s bubble situation is relatively clear. Barring a flurry of wins from Kansas State within the next two weeks, the conference will send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament. The last team among the seven is Texas Tech. When Big 12 coaches picked them to finish 10th a few months ago, how could anyone have seen this coming?

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE. LOOK AT IT. LOOK AT ITTTTTT (Big12Sports.com)

Texas Tech has eight conference wins at this point which bodes well with how the selection committee has historically treated eight-win Big 12 teams. Oklahoma State (twice) and Texas (once) made it safely into the field of 68 with that number in 2014 and 2015. Much has been written about the Red Raiders’ rise from rotten to respectable, and rightly so, but we shouldn’t forget that they’ve gone on this five-game winning streak without the services of starting center Norense Odiase. Tubby Smith is the favorite for Big 12 Coach of the Year and is also creeping into National Coach of the Year discussions as well. Now let’s hope all seven clubs make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Big 12 Power Rankings

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1. After two straight losses in which Iowa State gave up more than 90 points, the Cyclones picked up a 76-63 road win over Kansas State on Saturday. The lower point total was the product of both the Wildcats’ slower pace of play and a change in Steve Prohm‘s philosophy. After a slow start to conference play, Prohm explained that the Cyclones need to manage games in a way that limits the time they spend on defense. His theory is that Iowa State is so good on offense that the Cyclones would be better off spending a bit more of the game with the ball in their hands. The key, though, will still be for Iowa State to slow down opposing offenses. The Cyclones currently rank 114th in adjusted defensive efficiency–a stat which accounts for the quality of opponent and pace of play–and will be put to the test when Oklahoma comes to Ames tonight.
2. Speaking of the Sooners, their 70-68 victory over West Virginia reopened the Big 12 race as four teams now sit at 4-1 in the conference. More importantly, though, the win may be a boon for the confidence of sophomore Khadeem Lattin. After missing the front end of a one-and-one that would have given Oklahoma a victory in Allen Fieldhouse two weeks ago, Lattin scored the game-winning bucket against the Mountaineers on a tip-in. “It was like a redemption,” Lattin told the media.
3. Meanwhile at Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas bounced back from their loss in Morgantown on Tuesday with a 70-63 win over TCU. The Jayhawks’ two freshman big men, Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo, both got extended looks against the Horned Frogs. Bragg scored 10 points and grabbed four rebounds in 16 minutes, but it was Diallo’s performance that turned heads. After being featured only sparingly so far this year, Diallo played a season-high 21 minutes against TCU. His nine points, nine rebounds, and five blocks gave fans a taste of what Diallo can offer Kansas going forward. The improvement of the Jayhawks’ two freshman will be a critical component come March and it’s the reason Kansas is viewed as the title contender with the most upside going forward.
4. Baylor‘s Lester Medford continues to come up big in key moments for the Bears. The senior point guard delivered a huge second half in Baylor’s win over Vanderbilt earlier this season, and on Saturday, he knocked down the game-winning three-pointer against Texas Tech. While most of the focus has been on Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia, the Bears victory quietly pushed them into a four-way tie for first in the Big 12.
5. Our final note comes from the recruiting world. Last week, four-star center Udoka Azubuike declared his intention to announce his college choice at the Hoop Hall Classic this weekend. Azubuike, who is choosing between Florida State, Kansas, and North Carolina, appeared to be leaning towards the ‘Noles, but by Sunday rumors were swirling that Florida State was out of the picture altogether. As Kansas and North Carolina picked up predictions in 247Sports’ Crystal Ball, Azubuike’s guardian announced that the high school senior would be pushing back his decision. Just the latest in a long line of strange recruiting stories, it looks like this recruiting battle will continue for a while longer.

Kansas State had chemistry problems all season long a year ago as the Wildcats stumbled to a miserable 15-17 record. The offseason then brought a multitude of departures that only further weakened a fan base’s confidence in head coach Bruce Weber. This season, however, with 10 newcomers — including seven freshmen — Weber’s team has already given Texas A&M and North Carolina difficult games. The Wildcats also beat Georgia, a better-than-average SEC team, on the road. So who are these Wildcats?

You might be surprised to hear that Bruce Weber has the Kansas State Wildcats off to an 8-2 start. (Scott Sewell/USA TODAY Sports)

Justin Edwards and Wesley Iwundu are the two highest scoring returnees, but it’s freshmen like last year’s Kansas Mr. Basketball Dean Wade (11.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Kamau Stokes (9.1 PPG, 3.5 APG) who have led the Wildcats to a 9-2 record thus far. Is it too early to call them a good team? Probably. Still, it’s encouraging to see the Wildcats hang around with teams that are clearly better than them. Kansas State likely isn’t at the point of beating good teams just yet, but the Wildcats also aren’t nearly as far away as we expected them to be before the season began. Let’s see how they fared in our latest power rankings.

Power Rankings

• 1. Oklahoma (tie) — 6 points (Chris & Nate — 1st, Brian & Kendall — 2nd). Comment: “The Sooners still own the Big 12’s best win according to KenPom, a 23-point drubbing of Villanova on a neutral floor. They also have the country’s fifth-best defense. Sophomore Khadeem Lattin has helped fill the void left by the departure of TaShawn Thomas. His production on the defensive end, where he’s grabbed nearly 20.0 percent of the available rebounds and blocked 8.6 percent of the opposing shots, has been his biggest contribution.” – Chris Stone (@cstonehoops)
• 1. Kansas (tie) — 6 points (Brian & Kendall — 1st, Chris & Nate — 2nd). Comment: “Wayne Selden‘s development has fueled Kansas’ shot at winning a national title. Although Selden can’t shoot 54.0 percent from three-point range all season, he has also increased his field goal percentage at the rim by 10 percent from last season.” – Kendall Kaut (@kkaut)
• 3. Iowa State — 12 points (All voted 3rd). Comment: “Yes, the Cyclones did not lose their first game until falling to Northern Iowa in Des Moines last week, but their imperfections have been noticeable for a little while now. They struggled to beat a clearly inferior Colorado team. They trailed by 20 at home to Iowa before coming all the way back to win that one in dramatic fashion. Now they’ve lost both a game and a major shotmaker in Naz Mitrou-Long for the season while they slowly work Deonte Burton into the rotation. So, naturally, they then go out and nip Cincinnati at the wire on the road.” – Nate Kotisso (@natekotisso)

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Three weeks into the season, college basketball is down to just 13 undefeated teams. We’ll be in for a treat tonight when two of those teams, Oklahoma and Villanova, square off at the Pearl Harbor Classic in Hawai’i. When people talk about the Sooners, they generally lead with the play of All-American Buddy Hield, and with good reason. The story of his transformation from Bahamian sleeper recruit to National Player Of The Year candidate on a top 10 team is worth telling.

Buddy Hield leads Oklahoma against Villanova in tonight’s clash of unbeatens. (David K Purdy/Getty Images)

While the Sooners aren’t lacking for weapons outside of Hield, he’s taken an even bigger role in his team’s offense and he’s only improved (albeit against suspect competition). His true shooting percentage, which measures collective efficiency on two-point shots, three-pointers and free throws, has risen from 54.5 percent to 62.0 percent this season, largely on the strength of improved accuracy from beyond the three-point line and the foul line. He has also done a better job of involving his teammates in Lon Kruger‘s offense, as his assist rate has improved from 13.2 percent to 16.2 percent this season.Additionally, Oklahoma’s opponents are struggling to contain the senior, fouling him an average of 7.1 times per 40 minutes.

As special as Hield has been, Oklahoma’s complementary players are worth much more ink than they’ve received. Ryan Spangler keeps the Sooners’ inside game steady with consistent rebounding and finishing down low, and Khadeem Lattin and Akolda Manyang have provided the help needed to fill the void left by TaShawn Thomas’ departure. As a sophomore, Lattin is making life miserable for opposing forwards with his rebounding and shot-altering ability despite only playing about 15 minutes per contest; meanwhile, the seven-foot Manyang has been a shot-blocking force in limited opportunities as he’s adjusted to the college level. Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday afternoon, Oklahoma held Wisconsin, one of the country’s top 25 offenses, to just 0.80 points per possession. The Sooners’ 65-48 thrashing of last year’s national runner-up is just the latest example of a defensive transformation that has turned Lon Kruger’s squad into one of the top teams in the nation. Sure, the Badgers no longer have Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky on the floor, but their departures doesn’t take anything away from the latest example of Sooner stinginess.

Oklahoma’s swarming defense makes them a Final Four contender. (Mark D. Smith/USA TODAY Sports)

In 2013-14, Lon Kruger’s squad was upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by North Dakota State. They finished 91st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric that season. With four of their starters returning, the Sooners knew they would need to improve on their defense to take a leap forward in 2014-15. Those four starters — Jordan Woodard, Isaiah Cousins, Buddy Hield, and Ryan Spangler — are still in Norman, and still starting. That quartet, along with graduate transfer TaShawn Thomas, helped turn Oklahoma into one of the nation’s 10 best defensive teams last season. Despite Thomas’ graduation, Oklahoma is on pace for a similarly strong defensive campaign. The Sooners are currently ranked seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Kansas had no problem whatsoever handling Northern Colorado to open the season on Friday night, blowing out the Bears 109-72. The Jayhawks’ scoring output was their highest since the famous Elijah Johnson game at Iowa State in 2013 (although that game needed overtime). Everyone played a role in Friday night’s win, but the most impressive performance came from wing Brannen Greene, who went a perfect 5-of-5 off the bench from deep. Like most players whose value is tied up in his ability to make three-pointers, Greene is streaky, so whether he carries his hot start into tomorrow night’s Champions Classic meeting against Michigan State will be something to monitor.
2. Another big story on Opening Night was the inaugural game of the Shaka Smart era at Texas, but it wasn’t quite the start fans had in mind as the Longhorns fell to Washington in a sloppy, foul-plagued rockfight in Shanghai. The game’s 83 possessions were the most for Texas in a regulation game since a close loss to an uptempo BYU team in in 2013. Havoc is of course Smart’s favored style of play and brand — and there’s no reason to doubt that it will take off once he has his own players in the fold — but in the meantime, it’s also fair to question whether pushing the pace is the best idea for a Longhorns group prone to suspect shot selection.
3. When it comes to the teams who have the best shot of snapping the Jayhawks’ long streak of 11 straight conference titles, an overwhelming majority of the talk has centered on Oklahoma and Iowa State. However, Baylor could be right there with those two schools if its 97-55 dismantling of a decent Stephen F. Austin team is a sign of its long-term potential. We wouldn’t expect the Bears to consistently post eFG% rates in the high 70s as they did in Friday night’s victory, but the big win should serve as a new reminder to not sleep on Scott Drew’s squad this season.
4. Speaking of Big 12 contenders, Oklahoma was idle over the weekend, but the Sooners will face a tough opener on the road Tuesday night as they travel to face Memphis. The Tigers under Josh Pastner have been competitive over the last few years but their fan base has grown impatient with the team’s inconsistency and lack of postseason success. Still, Memphis features a deep rotation inside that could make scoring difficult for Buddy Hield, Ryan Spangler, Khadeem Lattin and JeMuni McNeace.
5. Lastly, the handful of Big 12 coaches facing the most pressure this season enjoyed worry-free debuts. To start off, Bruce Weber‘s new-look Kansas State squad beat a terrible Maryland-Eastern Shore team. Wesley Iwundu probably isn’t cut out to play a starring role on a good Big 12 team, but he looked the part on Friday, scoring an efficient 23 points on just 13 shots. Freshman Barry Brown was very good as well, posting 17 points in his collegiate debut. Meanwhile in Stillwater, Oklahoma State cruised to a 91-57 win over Tennessee-Martin. The Cowboys were on fire the whole game in a way we haven’t seen in a while, as their scoring efficiency of 1.34 PPP was better than any single performance from last season. Phil Forte scored 24 points on nine shots to lead the way. The Pokes have a few more cupcakes before the schedule starts to heat up, so we’ll see if they can continue to be effective.

Brian Goodman is the lead Big 12 correspondent for Rush The Court. You can follow him on Twitter at @BSGoodman.

Burning question: Is Oklahoma ready for the biggest expectations of the Lon Kruger era?

When it comes to recent history, Oklahoma basketball doesn’t conjure up a lot of great memories. Yes, Big 12 fans will recall Blake Griffin’s evolution into a wrecking ball and the Sooners’ prolonged success under Kelvin Sampson a decade ago, but there hasn’t been a lot to draw from since those halcyon days. Right after Griffin led the Sooners to the 2009 Elite Eight, the program descended into a two-year tailspin where they went 27-36 overall and 9-23 in league play, ultimately leading to Jeff Capel’s ouster in 2011. Fast forward four years later to the afterglow of a Sweet Sixteen appearance and a potential First Team All-American leading the way, and big things can finally be expected again on the hardwood in Norman.

Buddy Hield is back to lead the Sooners, but how will they fare now that they’re under the microscope? (David K Purdy/Getty Images)

The Sooners’ return to Big 12 contention can be credited to Lon Kruger’s direction and guidance. Oklahoma’s win total has increased in kind with every year he’s been on campus, and just last March, the team joined West Virginia as the only two Big 12 schools to survive the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend. Typically, when a program makes the Sweet Sixteen for just the second time in 12 years, a rebuild is lurking right around the corner. Not so with the Sooners — in fact, the spotlight on the Oklahoma program is even brighter in 2015-16 because practically everyone of significance from that run is back. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Just one week after saying that Chane Behanan was no longer on the Louisville team and would suspended for a “long time”, Rick Pitino reversed course saying that Behanan should be back “in a short period of time”. The supposed impetus for Pitino’s change of heart is that Behanan “told the truth” regarding whatever he did to get himself kicked off the team a week ago. Like many we expected Behanan to return to the team eventually and most likely before they played Kentucky on December 28 and we don’t know what “a short period of time” means, but the sudden aboutface by Pitino is pretty stunning even by his standards with the first game of the season still a few weeks away.
2. Like basically everybody else we are baffled by the NCAA’s decision to grant Josh Smith a waiver to play at Georgetown immediately. Surprisingly that might not even be the most confusing transfer case that we have heard of recently as Old Dominion reportedly received a decision from the NCAA regarding a transfer waiver for Trey Freeman, who left Campbell to be closer to his mother, several weeks ago, but is not disclosing the NCAA’s decision. Now we all know that Old Dominion has its issues with the NCAA and the way that it handles eligibility decisions (see Donte Hill), but we have no idea why the school would not disclose the NCAA’s decision one way or the other. If the story that is being published about Freeman’s reasons for transferring are correct, we would be shocked if the NCAA actually turned down Freeman’s waiver given the way that they have been handing out waivers these days. The decision is of particular importance to Old Dominion as Freeman would like be the team’s best player after averaging 14.4 points and 5.8 assists per game last season.
3. Khadeem Lattin‘s announcement that he was committing to play for Oklahoma might move the needle in Norman and in recruiting circles. To be sure, the addition of a 4-star recruit is a significant one for almost any program. However, to us the bigger topic of discussion is Lattin’s background as he decided to spend his sophomore year in Spain making him the first elite recruit to spend a high school season playing in Europe outside of the professional ranks before returning to Houston to be home-schooled. As you would expect, Lattin’s decision to go overseas was controversial and he likely slipped in the recruiting rankings temporarily as a result, but we will be interested to see how his time in Europe translates to the college game.
4. Yesterday, the NCAA released the most recent recommendations for proposed rule changes during the 2013-14 season. The headline stories will be about the change in when colleges can begin actively recruiting, but since it doesn’t pertain to basketball or football it probably will not resonate (particularly not here). The one thing that does jump out at us is the proposal to allow student-athletes to be given the highest meal plan available at a school. Now that may seem like a mundane thing especially to our older readers, but with the way that many schools have meal plans that provide money for use at off-campus restaurants as part of their meal plans it seems to suggest that this could be a step towards the cost of attendance measures that many have been advocating for the past few years.
5. Earlier this week we discussed how Ken Pomeroy was tweaking his rating system to try to make it have better predictive outcomes. It turns out that he is not the only member of the advanced metrics community who has been adjusting his formulas as Dan Hanner announced yesterday morning that he had adjusted his lineup-based prediction model for the upcoming season. The details regarding the adjustments are fairly complex, but they essentially boil down to the following things: simulating a season 10,000 times to give best-case, median-case, and worst-case scenario; predicting variance based on player background; including more player evaluation data (including that of JUCO players and non-top 100 high school recruits; and a few other minor tweaks. We will be interested to see how Hanner’s projections pan out given the unpredictability of projection how many of the incoming recruits will do in their new environments.

1. Billy Donovan did not come out and say that Scottie Wilbekin will be on next year’s Florida team, but his statement regarding the specifics of Wilbekin’s suspension suggest that it should not be too hard for Wilbekin to continue to play in Gainesville. Wilbekin is not allowed to workout with the team, but is allowed to lift weights on his own and workout with the coaching staff. Given those details we would be surprised if Wilbekin is not back with the team next season unless he does something dumb (again).
2. There was a lot of action in the ongoing Ed O’Bannon lawsuit even if the actual trial has not started yet. You can read an excellent recap of yesterday’s action courtesy of Stewart Mandel. The most interesting aspect that came out yesterday was that there will be current athletes involved in the case. We are not going to go so far as to call these individuals trail blazers, but we imagine that any current athletes that join this lawsuit can expect to have the NCAA investigating everything about their recruitment and eligibility.
3. You might want to hold back on those WNBA jokes around the new Big East commissioner. That is if the report from ESPN is true that Val Ackerman, the former WNBA commissioner, is in negotiations to become the next commissioner of the Big East. You may have heard Ackerman’s name mentioned recently for her report on how to improve women’s college basketball. Looking through Ackerman’s credentials she appears to be a pretty competitive candidate for the job and would appear to be a good fit for a job in a turbulent market with teams shifting conferences quite frequently although it will be interesting to see how a high-level female administrator would be accepted in an area that tends to be dominated by older males.
4. When we saw an article about Wichita State beating Gonzaga pop-up in our RSS Reader yesterday we assumed it was some glitch sending an article from March, but it turns out that it was not. Instead, Andy Glockner decided to take a look back at the Shockers ridiculous 23-point outburst in 9 possessions that led to another disappointing early exit for Gonzaga. This sequence will not be talked about for years (most of you outside of the Spokane area probably have already forgotten about it), but it was one of the more remarkable things you will see.
5. This year’s NBA Finals led to quite a bit of debate about the way that basketball is played/taught in the US and overseas. As you would have expected this led to quite a bit of bitter discussion from certain groups, but in reality is that there is probably something to be gained from exposure to both world. One example of this is Khadeem Lattin, a highly rated recruit who spent his sophomore year of high school in Spain. In the short term, the lack of exposure to US high school basketball scouts led to Lattin’s stock dropping, but as Jeff Borzello points out Lattin’s improved game and increased maturity could lead to bigger long-term gains for Lattin.

1. Mike Brey has built Notre Dame into an annual fixture in the Top 25 during his tenure in South Bend, and the three-time Big East COY who has led the Irish to six straight 20-win seasons will be rewarded with long term job security as a result. Reports indicate that the school on Tuesday will announce a 10-year extension to Brey’s contract, ostensibly keeping him at the school well into his 60s (he’s currently 53). It’s a proactive move by Notre Dame brass who are looking to shore up a winning program that has arguably been more successful than its football counterpart over the same period, while also signaling to potential poachers that Brey is going to cost quite a bit of coin to attract him away from northern Indiana.
2. It’s June 19, so what better time than to debate the relative merits for three top contenders for next year’s national title? The gents from CBSSports.com — Jeff Goodman, Gary Parrish, and Matt Norlander — each chose a team on Monday and made their case. Goodman chose Rick Pitino’s Louisville Cardinals; Parrish chose John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats; and Norlander chose Tom Crean’s Indiana Hoosiers. If you believe these guys, the Mesopatamia of college basketball in 2012-13 lies somewhere near Otisco, Indiana.
3. In reading about the way friends, family and even recruiters treated high school star Khadeem Lattin‘s year spent in Spain at Canarias Basketball Academy, we weren’t sure whether to laugh or cry at the absurdity of it all. Despite going to a skills academy run by an American that has sent 41 Europeans to D-I schools over the years, the general consensus stateside was that Lattin was somehow hurting his career by taking the year to hone his skills in a European environment. He was removed from the ESPN rankings altogether per a policy regarding ranking only US players, and his rating was downgraded from four stars to three after a lackluster showing in the spring. And people wonder why the abominable AAU system of prep basketball in the US never improves — they hold all the cards, man.
4. Sometimes we openly wonder whether the hardship waiver transfer rule has gotten completely out of hand, but in the case of Villanova’s Tony Chennault (a transfer from Wake Forest), we understand why the rule exists. The school announced on Monday that the NCAA had approved Chennault’s waiver request, making him eligible to take over a decimated VU backcourt effective in 2012-13. Chennault’s mother suffered some health issues recently, but more tragically than that, he lost his brother, Mike Jay, recently. Villanova is coming off its toughest season under Jay Wright’s stewardship, but with a solid interior crew surrounded by the talented Chennault and another promising player or two, maybe the Wildcats can find their typical game next season with a different cast of characters.
5. Finally this morning, we’re about six weeks removed from the start of the 2012 Summer Olympics and players from around the world are preparing to compete in the FIBA World Olympic Qualifying Tournament to earn a spot in London. The Dagger took a look at seven college (or recently graduated) players who will play in that tournament, with a few notable names such as Creighton’s Gregory Echinique (Venezuela), Iowa State’s Melvin Ejim (Nigeria), and Florida State’s Deivydas Dulkys (Lithuania) leading the way. Of course, Kentucky’s Anthony Davis is one of the finalists for the US men’s national team, but his odds of making the final roster remain a long shot at best.