Matt Patton is the RTC Correspondent for the ACC.

Predicted Order of Finish

• 1. Duke (15-1)
• 2. Virginia Tech (12-4)
• T3. North Carolina (10-6)
• T3. NC State (10-6)
• 5. Florida State (9-7)
• 6. Maryland (9-7)
• 7. Clemson (8-8)
• 8. Miami (7-9)
• 9. Boston College (5-11)
• 10. Wake Forest (4-12)
• 11. Georgia Tech (4-12)
• 12. Virginia (3-13)

All-Conference Team (key stats from last season in parentheses)

• G: Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech (20.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.5 APG)
• G: Nolan Smith, Duke (17.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.0 APG)
• F: Kyle Singler (POY), Duke (17.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.4 APG)
• F: Harrison Barnes, UNC (26.1 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.1 SPG for Ames High School)
• C: Tracy Smith, NC State (16.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.1 APG)

6th Man

Chris Singleton (F), Florida State (10.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.2 APG)

Impact Newcomers

Harrison Barnes (F, UNC) and Kyrie Irving (G, Duke).

Here’s the catch.  Barnes might be the better player statistically, and he should have an unbelievable season, but if Duke’s repeat hopes rest on Irving’s shoulders, I’m not sure how he couldn’t be an impact newcomer. Both have NBA scouts fawning over them.

Kyrie Irving (left) and Harrison Barnes have sky-high potential, but how will they do in their respective coaches' systems? (Larry Busacca/Getty Images)

What You Need To Know

People will probably say the ACC is having a down year again, but statistically, in the ACC’s “down season” last year, it finished as the highest ranked conference by Ken Pomeroy (just above the Big 12).  Even though the conference has won five of the last ten NCAA championships, people will argue it’s in decline after perennial contender UNC had a devastating season and Duke caught a few breaks on the road to the National Championship. That said, the ACC will not be the country’s deepest conference this season, but that doesn’t mean it will be irrelevant beyond the Blue Devils and Tar Heels.  The ACC has five recruiting classes in ESPN’s top 25, which should ease the loss of important conference players like Greivis Vasquez, Jon Scheyer, Sylven Landesberg, Trevor Booker and Al-Farouq Aminu.

Predicted Champion

Duke (NCAA #1 Seed) – Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad should not only be favored to win the conference, they should be favored to win the NCAA Tournament.  Duke returns two Preseason All-Americans in Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith from last year’s championship team.  Kyrie Irving is the highest-touted Duke recruit since Jason Williams, who led the Blue Devils to the 2001 title. Irving is also considered by scouts as the best true point guard of this class.  Additionally, the Blue Devils picked up four-star power forward Joshua Hairston and Seth Curry (who averaged 20.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 2.3 APG in his freshman season at Liberty), both of whom should see lots of playing time. Duke loses three starters from last year’s team: Jon Scheyer (18.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.9 APG), Lance Thomas (4.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 0.9 APG), and Brian Zoubek (5.6 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.0 APG).  Losing three starters would normally lower expectations for a team.  But, if anything, this Duke team should be more talented than last year’s squad.  According to Evan Daniels of Scout.com: three people who have watched Duke recently “are raving about their overall talent and Kyrie Irving.”  If you’re looking for more praise (not likely), Dan Wetzel tweeted: “Keep hearing from NBA scouts who’ve seen Duke practice describe Devils as ‘scary’ ‘complete’ ‘even better.’”  He followed that up rebutting the pro-Coach K media saying “These are NBA scouts raving about Duke, not supposedly pro-Coach K media.”  And last but not least, Luke Winn ranked the Blue Devil backcourt first in the nation and the frontcourt second (after Purdue, whose loss of Robbie Hummel almost certainly drops them a couple of spots). Long story short, Duke is going to be very, very good this year, especially if Mason Plumlee has the breakout season people are expecting. Read the rest of this entry »

David Ely is an RTC contributor.

College basketball is finally back and as always one of the most interesting subplots of the new season is all of the coaches at their respective new schools. It seemed like this year had more coaching changes than normal, so here are the five coaching moves we’re keeping an eye on as well as a few of the ones that didn’t make the cut.

Steve Donahue at Boston College

Donahue Will No Doubt Find the ACC Challenging

• Resume: 10 seasons as head coach at Cornell (146-138).
• Postseason history: Three straight Ivy League Championships (2008-10); Three trips to the NCAA Tournament (2008-10), including a run to the Sweet 16 in 2010.
• How he got to Boston College: Donahue became one of the nations “It” coaches when the Big Red stormed onto the scene in March Madness, making and breaking brackets everywhere in their run to the Sweet 16. Actually, Donahue probably first garnered attention when Cornell nearly knocked off No. 1 Kansas in January 2010. Boston College, on the other hand, was nudging down the pecking order of the ACC and Al Skinner eventually became the scapegoat for the Eagles lack of success (two losing seasons in the last five). Skinner was fired after the end of the season, and Donahue got the job April 6.
• Signature style: An up-tempo attack that is dependent on the three-ball. Cornell was the top three-point shooting team in the nation last year, hitting from downtown at a 43.3% clip.
• Likelihood of success: Depends on what you label success. Will the Eagles duplicate Cornell’s run of three straight Ivy League titles in the ACC? Probably not. But Boston College’s rough play always felt out of place in the ACC, and a more open style should make the Eagles competitive against the Dukes and North Carolinas. There’s no reason to believe that Donahue can’t bring BC back to the level it was at when Jared Dudley and Craig Smith played in Chestnut Hill.
• Will endear himself if: He can make basketball exciting at Boston College again. BC has always been an awkward match with its ACC brethren, and the school still feels more like a Big East program. Because of the Donahue’s lovable underdog history, he should have a decent-sized grace period before people start to expect results.
• Will be on the hot seat if: His attempt to change BC’s style fails. Sometimes people don’t like change (just ask Rich Rodriguez at Michigan). If the local writers in Boston start throwing out terms like soft, then it might be that Donahue and Boston College just aren’t the right fit.

Tim Floyd at UTEP

• Resume: 327-181 combined record in 16 seasons at four schools, including an 85-50 mark at Southern Cal. Floyd also coached for five seasons in the NBA at Chicago and New Orleans where he went 49-190 and 44-45, respectively.
• Postseason history: Eight trips to the NCAA Tournament including two Sweet 16 berths (Iowa State and USC).
• How he got to UTEP: Tony Barbee left UTEP during the offseason to become the new coach at Auburn, and UTEP athletic director Bob Stull reportedly contacted Floyd about the position immediately after Barbee resigned. Floyd was a Miners assistant coach under Don Haskins from 1977-86.
• Signature style: In his introductory news conference at UTEP, Floyd said that the Miners would attempt to run a pro-style offense. Expect to see a lot of half-court sets and diagrammed plays at UTEP under Floyd. Defense might turn into the Miners’ strength. At times USC was a shutdown defensive program when Floyd was at the helm with the Trojans showing the propensity to get creative in their schemes on that end of the floor (i.e., USC’s triangle-and-two defense that nearly took down Memphis in 2007).
• Likelihood of success: Pretty good. Conference USA is up for grabs in the post-John Calipari Era. The Miners went 15-1 in conference last year, and Floyd has the profile to become a powerful recruiter if he can take a veteran group and build on their 24-6 finish in 2010.
• Will endear himself if: The Miners compete for the Conference USA title on a yearly basis. The program knew the baggage they’d get when they hired Floyd, but the tantalizing potential of a Memphis-like dynasty emerging at UTEP was enough to justify the move. If Floyd wins games and turns the Miners into a national player (he’s already said he wants to schedule the best in the nation), people will tend to forget his dicey past.
• Will be on the hot seat if: He gets involved in another NCAA scandal. Everyone knows that Floyd would still be at USC if it wasn’t for violations in the recruitment of O.J. Mayo. If a situation like that arose again at UTEP, Floyd’s career as a collegiate head coach could be over.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Mike DeCourcy spoke with Kentucky freshman Enes Kanter’s father recently, finding that Dr. Mehmet Kanter believes that Turkish basketball officials stating that his son took a salary in cash and benefits while playing for club team Fenerbahce is a smear campaign meant to chill future generations of young Turkish players from bolting overseas to play American college basketball instead of remaining at home.  He speaks extensively about the importance of his son obtaining an American collegiate education and points to the family turning down multi-million dollar offers in Turkey as evidence of their sincerity, but what was notably absent from Dr. Kanter’s comments was whether his son is looking to play at Kentucky for one year or long enough to get that all-important degree.  After all, if we are to believe his assertions about education from the interview, we should expect Enes to stay in Lexington for longer than the next six months, right?
2. We appreciate teams that will schedule tough non-conference schedules, especially if they’re willing to go on the road to do so.  Luke Winn gives us his top ten such schedules, and according to his analysis, John Thompson, III, John Calipari, Rick Barnes, Bruce Pearl and Tom Izzo should be proud of themselves.  We’re looking forward to quite a few games on those schedules.
3. Louisville associate coach director of basketball operations and former WKU/Pitt/Holy Cross head coach Ralph Willard has a pretty sweet new gig if you can get it.  He’ll be paid $375,000 this season in the first year of a three-year deal where he’ll be required to “coach the coaches.”  One of the coaches he’ll be coaching is new Louisville assistant Mark Lieberman, a defensive specialist from Miami who will make about one-seventh the salary as Willard with approximately seventy times as much stress.
4. As of this week, new NCAA head honcho Mark Emmert is on the job in Indianapolis, and several of his initial areas of interest relate to academics and how to ensure student-athletes are getting an education as part of their collegiate experience.  We have no problem with that in principle, nor do we have any problem with his supposed interest in coming down hard on the rule-breakers in the sport; but we have written in this space before that trying to work a deal with David Stern to turn the NBA Draft into something akin to the MLB model (where a prep player has the option to go to the NBA out of high school, but then has to stay for three years if he goes to college) is an absolute mistake.  Get off this, man — there is nothing good that will come from this.
5. Here’s another first for Frank Martin’s Kansas State program — the Big 12 coaches yesterday overwhelmingly put the pressure squarely on his team to win the conference title, earning ten of the twelve first-place votes (coaches cannot vote for their own team).  Kansas followed up in second with two first-place votes and Texas came in third.  It’s interesting to see Colorado come in at ninth — even though head coach Jeff Bzdelik took off for points east, the Buffs still return two of the best players in the conference in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins.  The full list is below, and my how Jeff Capel’s program has fallen…

Big 12 Preseason Coaches Poll

1. Kansas State (10) 119
2. Kansas (2) 109
3. Texas 99
4. Baylor 96
5. Missouri 82
6. Texas A&M 69
7. Texas Tech 52
8. Oklahoma State 51
9. Colorado 46
10. Nebraska 31
11. Oklahoma 27
12. Iowa State 11

Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the ACC and an occasional contributor.

Around The ACC:

• Encore, Encore: Duke won the national title by toppling Butler in a hard-fought final, but unlike recent championship squads, there’s no major mass exodus of talent from Durham (unless you’re related to Jon Scheyer or Brian Zoubek), so the Blue Devils will have a legit chance to repeat.
• New Faces, New Places: Former Cornell head coach Steve Donahue, best known for elevating the Big Red from NCAA Tournament floormat to the Sweet 16, takes the lead for Boston College. Another import is former Wright State general Brad Brownell, who will lead Clemson after the departure of Oliver Purnell. Brownell previously served at UNC-Wilmington, so it shouldn’t take long for him to reopen that pipeline. Lastly, Jeff Bzdelik comes to Winston-Salem, hoping to provide Wake Forest with long-term stability.
• No News Is Good News: Rumors came and went surrounding conference realignment, but in the end, the ACC held steady amongst the national wave of teams changing conferences.

McDonald's All-American Kyrie Irving looks to complement an already-stacked Blue Devils squad on their way to a repeat.

Power Rankings (last season’s conference and overall records in parentheses)

1. Duke (13-3, 35-5): The Blue Devils don’t rebuild, they just reload. Losing Jon Scheyer and Brian Zoubek hurts, but when Coach K gets back from Turkey, he’ll be happy to see familiar faces in Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Mason and Miles Plumlee. College basketball fans everywhere can also rejoice in another season of Curry, as Stephen’s brother Seth is eligible to play after transferring in 2009, and Kyrie Irving (West Orange, NJ) makes his long-awaited debut. The frontcourt will have to pick up for the loss of Zoubek, but with this much talent to being with and Josh Hairston arriving in Durham, I don’t think it’ll be a problem.
   BETTER OR WORSE?: If you can believe it, I think Duke might be even better. They can’t top last year’s national title, obviously, but I don’t see any other ACC team touching them for the regular season title.
2. Virginia Tech (10-6, 25-9): The Hokies lose no one. I repeat: NO ONE. Find me another team in the nation that doesn’t lose a key contributor. With one of the ACC’s most exciting players, Malcolm Delaney, coming back, Tech also learned its lesson from NCAA snubs in the past and scheduled at least a couple interesting nonconference games, including Kansas State (away), Purdue, Penn State, Mississippi State and possibly Oklahoma State, depending on how the 76 Classic plays out in Anaheim.
   BETTER OR WORSE?: Better, at least by enough to not be sweating it out come Selection Sunday. Whether they can make noise in March, no one really knows, but the Hokies will dance this season.
3. Boston College (6-10, 15-16): Experience, experience, experience. No one has more of it in the ACC than the Eagles. BC’s new coach, former Cornell boss Steve Donahue, has more Sweet 16 experience than most coaches in the ACC. Don’t underestimate the Eagles this season (this coming from a Boston University grad and card-carrying BC hater). With so much youth all around the ACC, BC’s experience will be invaluable, and Donahue was an absolute no-brainer to replace Al Skinner.
   BETTER OR WORSE?: Better – much better. With Corey Raji, Joe Trapani and others leading the way, BC will join NC State as the league’s most improved teams, and should get an NCAA invite. Now if only they’d man up and put my alma mater back on their schedule. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of weeks ago we broke down what will arguably be the top holiday tournament of the 2010-11 season, the Maui Invitational.  The other Big Daddy of pre-conference tourneys, the Preseason NIT, released its brackets today, and at first blush, the field is not all that exciting this year.  Take a look at the below bracket and tell us where you get a little tingly thinking about the downstream matchup possibilities?

The only legitimate national contender in the field is Villanova, with 105-point scorer Corey Fisher returning along with a whole cadre of talented inside players including Mouph Yarou, Antonio Pena and Isaiah Armwood.  If the expectation is that productive freshmen become superb sophomores, then the Wildcats are a team with as much upside as anyone else in America next year.  The dropoff in talent from VU to the next best squad, Tennessee, is significant, but the real precipice occurs after that point.  The Vols lost Wayne Chism, JP Prince and Bobby Maze from their Elite Eight team, but they bring back star-in-waiting Scotty Hopson and add Tobias Harris to a solid cast of role players, so UT has a chance to be very good again.  We’d expect these two teams to sleepwalk their way to the finals on Black Friday in Madison Square Garden.

The third and fourth seeds and regional hosts Wake Forest and UCLA are two of the weaker teams we’ve seen in this position in some time.  Neither is a likely NCAA Tournament team next season, and it says here that both schools will have trouble getting out of their PNIT region despite the fact that it will be played on their home courts.  Wake returns two promising sophomores in CJ Harris and Ari Stewart, but the loss of all-ACC players Al-Farouq Aminu and Ish Smith, not to mention head coach Dino Gaudio (replaced by Jeff Bzdelik), will be too much for the duo to bear so early in the season — expect the Deacs to crumble against a strong VCU team with something to prove.  UCLA returns more than Wake Forest, but if you’ve somehow been in a fugue state for the past twelve months, the Bruin program has fallen on hard times due to poor recruiting, team chemistry and injury problems.  The talented but enigmatic Malcolm Lee returns along with several other young players (Tyler Honeycutt, Reeves Nelson, Jerime Anderson), but the addition of five-star stud Josh Smith to the mix isn’t going to suddenly remind UCLA how to win games.  A second-round matchup against Pacific, with its top four players returning, or Nevada, always looking for a Pac-10 scalp as a member of the overlooked WAC, will be difficult for UCLA, even in Pauley Pavilion.

The one thing we will continue to give the PNIT folks credit for, though, is that they actually still understand the meaning of the word “Tournament.”  Yeah, yeah, we know that other entities get around it by using words like “Classic,” but a bracket is a bracket and it really only makes sense when a team advances into the later rounds by, you know, winning.  There are no guarantees — Villanova, Tennessee, Wake Forest and UCLA will actually have to beat two visiting teams to earn the privilege of a trip to New York City during Thanksgiving week to play in the World’s Most Famous Arena.  So from that perspective, we’ll still enjoy watching the Preseason NIT this November if for no other reason than they get it right.

1. The biggest news yesterday came when the NCAA announced that UConn athletic director Jeff Hathaway has been tabbed to take over as the chairman of the Men’s D1 Basketball Committee for the 2011-12 season.  He will succeed the current chairman, Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith, next summer.  This is a peculiar choice given the timing that UConn is currently facing eight major recruiting violations in its men’s basketball program (including a failure to monitor charge, and if you believe this report, a possible 2-3 year probation) and rumors that Hathaway has been considering a move to Maryland, his alma mater.  According to the NCAA, if Hathaway takes the Maryland job, this chairmanship will not follow him.
2. Ask any middle-aged Duke fan if they remember the name Todd Leary, and without question you’ll get a knowing glance.  In the 1992 Final Four en route to Coach K’s back-to-back titles, Indiana’s Leary gave Blue Devil fans heart palpitations as he single-handedly brought Bob Knight’s Indiana team back from nine down in the final two minutes with three long-balls from all over the court.  Well, from that illustrious moment to this one — Leary pleaded guilty to fraud relating to a mortgage company scheme late last week in Ft. Wayne, and he is on the hook for $300,000 in restitution as well as possible prison time.  Nice.
3. Did you see Gary Parrish’s summer all-americans?  With three Big 12 players on his first team, it’s going to be another fantastic season in the nation’s heartland.
4. This is an interesting post from Bylaw Blog (“the unofficial blog of NCAA compliance” — awesome!) that suggests that the NCAA Infractions folks may be reaching a critical mass of knowledge in both football and basketball (about how “the system” actually works) to begin focusing on and targeting the volume cheaters.  We can only hope…
5. What do Rick Barnes (Big 12), Jeff Bzdelik (ACC), Fran McCaffery (Big Ten), Buzz Williams (Big East), Rick Stansbury (SEC) and Kevin O’Neill (Pac-10) have in common?  These six coaches in the BCS leagues tend to play their starters more than any other coach in that league, according to statistics compiled by Dan Hanner over at YABB in his typically stellar analysis.   (ed. note — Bzdelik’s and McCaffery’s numbers were of course from previous schools)

1. Villanova’s Taylor King has now quit on his second program, deciding in the past few days to transfer out of Villanova.  Well, not really.  According to the release, King has decided to “voluntarily withdraw from the men’s basketball team,” but he plans on sticking around the school to complete his degree requirements.  Is this for real?  Despite what Gary Parrish writes about King’s oversized expectations, he was solid for at least half the season on the Main Line last year (7/5 in 19 MPG) and we find it hard to believe that he’s given up on basketball completely.  The guy could probably be a star in the WCC or a similar league.
2. Luke Winn examines how the new coach at Wake Forest, Jeff Bzdelik is adjusting to his new job.  Bzdelik claims that he will adapt to his personnel and keep the Deacs as an uptempo team that pushes the ball, but every coach says that in the summertime.  The story about how the Wake coaching staff kept their top twenty recruiting class intact is pretty cool, though.
3. Fred Barakat, a longtime ACC  official and executive as well as former Fairfield coach, died on Monday at the age of 71.  He is widely regarded as one of the key players in the extraordinary growth of ACC basketball as a brand in the 80s and 90s.  RIP, Fred.
4. Class of 2011 super-recruit James McAdoo was considering bailing on his senior year of high school to matriculate in Chapel Hill a year earlier than expected, but ZagsBlog reported yesterday that he would instead remain in Hampton Roads next year.  You only get to be a kid once, so we fully support this decision.
5. This interview of Jay Bilas, Gary Williams, Jay Wright and Jim Boeheim at the CvC Golf Invitational shows that coaches are definitely concerned about realignment.  Bilas, as usual, has the best take: the NCAA needs to get in front of this realignment business or risk getting left completely behind in a few years when the super-conferences decide that the entity is no longer necessary.

1. Happy Earth Day, everyone.  Take care of it, folks.  Yesterday’s NBA Draft entries are getting even more obscure.  Ole Miss’ Eniel Polynice joined UTEP’s Arnett Moultrie in putting their names into the NBA Draft pool, which is now bigger than the NBA Draft itself.  Polynice is not projected as a draft pick, but he is due to graduate this spring and has decided that his college career is over.  At 6’11, Moultrie is a very raw but intriguing prospect who had a disappointing sophomore campaign but still could be worth a look in the second round for some team.  Whether that will be enough to keep him in the draft is unclear at this point.  It’s going to be a fun May 8 this year (the early entry withdrawal date).  One player expected to stick around is Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen, who feels that he needs to handle the ball more to improve his draft stock for next year.
2. New Wake Forest head coach Jeff Bzdelik was able to convince all five of the Demon Deacons’ top ten ranked recruiting class to stay with the program, a somewhat impressive feat given the negativity surrounding his hiring.  Clemson’s Brad Brownell is finding a little more trouble hanging onto star recruit Marcus Thornton, who is said to be considering many options other than the Tigers at this point.
3. The big guns are coming out, as the Big East hired former NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue to help the league navigate the NWO of conference superpowers and whatever shakes out residually from Big Ten and other expansion in the coming years.  This is a very strong hire, and the rest of the major conferences should take note of this move.  If the Big East knows one thing, it’s marketing and business savvy.
4. This is a cool piece at Fanhouse that describes the unknown connection between the two mid-majors who crashed the Final Four party in the last five seasons — George Mason and Butler.  Who knew that Dick Bennett had any part of this, but he did.
5. In a possible Q-rating litmus test of Calipari vs. Pitino in the recruiting world, junior superstar guard Marquis Teague is expected to announce his choice of school this afternoon, and apparently Cardinal Nation is already throwing itself into the Ohio River over the following tweets from Tony Wroten, another junior guard who is claiming that Teague told him his choice last night on the phone:

Wright State’s Brad Brownell was introduced this afternoon as the new head coach at Clemson University, ending a week of swirling rumors among three ACC programs (Boston College and Wake Forest are the others) as to the leadership and future direction of their programs.  Brownell had been reportedly in the mix for the Wake Forest position prior to the Deacs settling on Colorado’s Jeff Bzdelik (a move that is apparently still in negotiations).  Unlike Bzdelik, though, the new Clemson coach has achieved a verifiable and sustained pattern of success throughout his eight-year head coaching career. 

Brownell Becomes the Latest ACC Coach

At UNC-Wilmington from 2002-06, Brownell’s teams were 83-40 (52-20 CAA), including two conference championships and NCAA appearances (both close losses in the first round).  He then followed that up at Wright State with a nearly identical 84-45 record (49-21 Horizon), including a conference championship and another NCAA berth there in 2007.  His last three years at the school have been cast in the long shadow of Horizon League nemesis Butler, but his teams have won at least twelve conference games and twenty overall in each of his seasons at the helm there.  Put simply, the guy has won games wherever he’s coached. 

Brownell’s teams at WSU were among the most patient in the country the last several years, averaging between 60-64 possessions per game (national average = 67).  His teams are defensive-oriented with an emphasis on limiting good looks in the paint and forcing turnovers through sticky halfcourt traps and the denial of entry passes (similar to Butler in this regard).  Some Clemson writers wonder how that will translate to life in the ACC, but with halfcourt basketball now preferred at half the schools in the conference (with Donahue at BC and Bzdelik at Wake joining Tony Bennett at Virginia, Sidney Lowe at NC State and Leonard Hamilton at FSU in the utilizaton of patient basketball), we may be seeing a shift in the hoops culture of this league.  So long as it works, of course.  It makes for an interesting juxtaposition as the top three programs (and coaches) in this league prefer to run at every opportunity — will the ACC start looking more like the Big Ten with games in the 50s?

Among the three ACC hires this year, we believe that this one is poised to work out best for all parties involved.  Brownell is familiar with the Carolinas from his decade spent in Wilmington and is also certainly well-versed with how seriously ACC fans take their basketball (especially with respect to Drew Nicholas).  He’s also walking into a situation at Clemson where seven of last year’s top nine Tiger contributors from an NCAA Tournament team should return to the fold (although Devin Booker is reportedly waffling).  Oliver Purnell more than proved that basketball can succeed at this football school, and Brownell may just be the young, dynamic coach to take Clemson to the next level of regular NCAA Tournament runs beyond the first game. 

With reporters both in Winston-Salem and Denver reporting that the Jeff Bzdelik rumors to Wake Forest are now a “done deal,” we wanted to take some time to analyze this hire because on its face there seems to be something missing.  Last week Wake AD Ron Wellman fired Dino Gaudio after three seasons that included a 61-31 overall record, 27-21 ACC mark and two NCAA Tournament appearances in his three seasons at the helm — a solid resume, if not spectacular.  But according to Wellman, it was what was behind those numbers that led to Gaudio’s firing — the timing and nature of what can only be described as meltdowns the last two seasons.  His quote on the matter:

The decision was based on the overall performance the past three years. I looked at our February and March records and how the performances declined rather dramatically. We were 16-17 in February in those three years and in March 4-7, and 1-6 in postseason play, including the ACC Tournament. In six of those losses, we were the higher-seeded team or better seeded in five of those losses. Yet the games weren’t even close.

Wake's New Guy Looks a Lot Like the Old Guy

This is rational, reasoned and well justified analysis of Gaudio’s late-season troubles.  What we’re having trouble understanding is how the 57-year old Bzdelik is a significant upgrade.  Bzdelik has had two major head coaching jobs — at Air Force from 2005-07, and the current gig at Colorado.  He generally did very well at the Air Force Academy, going 50-16 overall (22-10 MWC), including an at-large trip to the NCAA Tournament in 2006.  The problem is that his March record at AFA wasn’t any better than Gaudio’s — he was 0-2 in the Mountain West Conference Tournament despite holding higher seeds in both games, and the Academy’s sole NCAA appearance also resulted in a loss.  In fact, the unquestionable highlight of Bzdelik’s postseason career is the run that Air Force made to get to the NIT semifinals  in 2007, which is great for a program with little to no basketball history but not something to which an ACC school should aspire.

Looking at his three years in Colorado certainly does not help his case.  We recognize that the CU job is a challenging one, and Bzdelik seems to have gotten the Buffs on an upward trajectory there.  But his three-year body of work  does not inspire confidence that he’s any better than what Wake already had: 36-58 overall (10-38 Big 12), and a 1-3 record in the Big 12 Tournament.  No NCAA appearances, no NIT appearances.  In fact, the highlight of Bzdelik’s career in Boulder was a loss — dropping a six-point defeat in overtime against #1 Kansas in early February of this year.  The fact that his team was competing with the class of the conference/nation represented to many people that Bzdelik had reached a turning point in the program.  Colorado lost five more games, however, and in the Big 12 Tourney first round, the Buffs endured a fifteen-point thrashing.  Maybe it’s coming next year?

Will Bzdelik Improve on Gaudio?

Ron Wellman went out of his way to bring up Gaudio’s pitiful postseason record in his three years at Wake, and we assume that he took the time to analyze Bzdelik’s (1-5 excluding the NIT), but you have to believe that there’s more going on here than just a paucity of postseason success.  We know that Wellman and Bzdelik worked together at Northwestern a number of years ago and Bzdelik’s daughter attends Wake, but that seems coincidental more than anything else.  The only reasonable explanation for this hire is that Wellman must hold a belief that Bzdelik’s focus on “x’s and o’s,” of which he is well respected, is what the school needs right now.  There was a lingering sense around the ACC that Gaudio’s teams, while talented and athletic, didn’t know how to run a play in the halfcourt offense.  Bzdelik may very well cure that, but will he be able to raise the program to the next level that Wellman thinks they can reach (presumably a regular in the Sweet Sixteen)?