Cincinnati came into the year as one of the favorites for a top four finish in the Big East, and that looked like a good bet through non-conference play. However, the Bearcats were totally inconsistent all season once the Big East schedule began, and after an injury to guard Cashmere Wright in January, Cincinnati has struggled to put points on the board. Wins over Iowa State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Marquette, and Villanova were enough to get the Bearcats into the tournament, but Cincinnati was probably a game or two from being in serious bubble talks.

Mick Cronin and Cincinnati came into the season as a favorite to win the Big East. Now, they get to prove that all over again. (Getty)

Region: Midwest
Seed: No. 10
Record: 22-11 (9-9 Big East)
Matchup: v. Creighton in Philadelphia, PA

Key Player: Sean Kilpatrick is far and away the most important Bearcat. He is the team’s leader in minutes, points, and is just .6 rebounds off of Titus Rubles pace for the team lead in that category, and he’s doing it from the guard position. On a team that often struggles to find the bottom of the net, Kilpatrick is the only consistent option, and the opposition knows it, which helps explain the low shooting percentages for the Yonkers native. Read the rest of this entry »

1. On the Eve of the NCAA Tournament’s first day, five-star 2013 prospect and McDonald’s All-American Julius Randle committed to Kentucky over Big 12 schools Texas and Kansas as well as Florida. The #3 overall recruit was rumored by some to be headed to Lawrence and Bill Self but he decided to join what has now been called the greatest recruiting class (on paper) of all-time. The Wildcats have commitments from four top-2o recruits and have four players who are the #1 high school player at their respective positions. Randle enrolling at Kansas would have made the Jayhawks one of the handful of national title favorites next season. Self is already bringing in the nation’s #2 overall recruiting class, led by top 30 prospects Brannen Greene and Wayne Selden, and the Jayhawks are still in the hunt for the #1 player in the class, Andrew Wiggins.
2. Here are 68 reasons to love the NCAA Tournament, from Bobby La Gesse of the Ames Tribune. He immediately brings up the #16 over a #1 prediction, which would be fun to see this year. Western Kentucky has the best chance to pull off the monumental upset, according to Vegas, as the Hilltoppers are 20-point underdogs against Kansas. While such a major upset seems impossible, the 20-point line has been overcome before. Last season, #2 seed Norfolk State was a 21.5-point underdog when it took out #2 seed Missouri in the Second Round.
3. La Salle advanced past Boise State in a First Four game last night, and the Explorers will face #4 seed Kansas State on Friday in Kansas City. Jeff Borzello at CBSSports.com thinks La Salle’s small lineup could be poised for a run in the Tournament. Guys like Ramon Galloway (21 points against Boise State) will play key roles against the likes of Angel Rodriguez, one of the backcourt leaders for Bruce Weber’s Wildcats. If Kansas State can pound the ball inside, the Wildcats should win comfortably, but if it becomes an uptempo game ruled by guard play, the Explorers might have the advantage.
4. Want to know why your favorite team won’t win the national championship next month? Check out Andy Glockner’s piece here. He briefly explains why 67 Tournament teams won’t cut down the nets next month in Atlanta. He dismisses the #9-#13 seeds altogether (Sorry, Oklahoma and Iowa State), and he doesn’t like #5 Oklahoma State’s draw with Oregon in the Second Round. Kansas‘ point guard struggles scare Glockner, but he admits to picking the Jayhawks early in the season and as recently as January.
5. Speaking of Oregon, the underseeded Ducks face #5 seed Oklahoma State in a  match-up that is much too even for that spot in the bracket. ESPN’s Jason King thinks it will be one of the best games in the Round of 64, and it’s hard to disagree with him. The Ducks finished second in the Pac-12 regular season standings and they also won the conference tournament and played great this year when healthy, which is what they are heading into Thursday.

It’s hard not to feel like performances in the NCAA Tournament tend to artificially inflate players’ draft stock. It’s true that the increased weight of the games and pressure on players can help bring out the best in some prospects, but sometimes it seems like scribes and scouts tend to erroneously overdo it and conflate NCAA Tournament success with NBA success. That said, there will be plenty of NBA eyeballs on the NCAA Tournament this year, and there are a number of Big East prospects with NBA potential hoping to use the Big Dance to boost their stocks. Picking guys like Otto Porter and Michael Carter-Williams is too easy, as they have relatively assured NBA futures. We are more concerned here with the Big East players who truly have something to gain from their performances this March.

A big NCAA Tournament could have Gorgui Dieng shooting up NBA Draft boards.

Gorgui Dieng (Louisville): Dieng is already a surefire pro prospect thanks to his NBA-ready defensive abilities, but those who think the junior is a defense-only big man haven’t been watching the Senegal native play this season. Dieng’s progression on offense was slowed somewhat this season by a hand injury, but he is an improved passer, a reasonable free throw shooter, and shows impressive touch from inside 15 feet. Dieng will potentially get an early chance to prove his ability against an old foe if the Cardinals advance to play Missouri and Alex Oriakhi, and there are potential match-ups looming with Mason Plumlee or Adreian Payne down the road. If Dieng helps lead Louisville to the Final Four and plays well in those marquee games, he could slip into the back end of the lottery.

Sean Kilpatrick (Cincinnati): Kilpatrick is another player who could leave early for the NBA Draft if he thinks he has nothing left to accomplish with the Bearcats, but he may be on the outside looking in as the NCAA Tournament gets under way. There is no doubting his scoring and shooting ability, but his size and length give scouts pause so he will need to work on his ball-handling if he wants to make it at the next level. Kilpatrick has the type of gutsy attitude and moxie that are perfect for the NCAA Tournament, and he has a chance to go toe-to-toe with another NBA prospect in the first round when the Bearcats play Creighton and Doug McDermott. If Kilpatrick can lead the Bearcats past the Bluejays and then play well when matched against another NBA hopeful guard in Duke’s Seth Curry, he may impress enough scouts to earn some looks in the second round for his scoring ability and mature game. Read the rest of this entry »

Iowa State has the ability to shoot its way to the Elite Eight or end its 2013 NCAA Tournament run in around two and a half hours. That sounds cliche because it is, but this Cyclones team plays that way. They are first in the country with 878 three-point attempts and 325 three-pointers made this season, good enough for 37% (#52 nationally). Their adjusted offensive efficiency is eighth according to KenPom but they don’t really play much defense, with an adjusted defensive efficiency at 121st nationally. A defense that bad is typically not a winning formula in March, but can such a trigger-happy offense get hot from deep and win you a few games? Sure.

The Buckeyes Might Have The Easiest Road to Atlanta. (AP)

The Cyclones play #7 seed Notre Dame in the Round of 64, a team that likes nothing better than to walk the ball up and keep the game in the half-court. The Irish’s adjusted tempo is 320th in the country, and they are 129th in the country in possessions. Iowa State, on the other hand, is 20th. The Cyclones are fifth in PPG (79.6), while Notre Dame clocks in at 100th (70.4 PPG). Like nearly every other Iowa State game this season, if Fred Hoiberg’s group hits their shots they’ll have a great chance to win. If not, they’ll be done. It sounds simple because it is. They won’t shut a team down when their shots aren’t falling. If Notre Dame defends the perimeter, they should win. But don’t expect it. Take the Cyclones. Read the rest of this entry »

We released the Official RTC Bracket for the South and East Regions earlier today — be sure to check that out if you need a refresher on our methodology for this exercise — and we’ll save you the fluff this time and cut right to the chase with the Midwest and West Regions. (note: our Final Four selections are after the analyses)

Quick Hitters From the Midwest Region

• Advancing to Atlanta: #1 Louisville
• Round of 64 Upset: #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis
• Later Round Upset: N/A
• Three Most Disputed Games: #5 Oklahoma State over #12 Oregon, #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis, #2 Duke over #3 Michigan State

Four Questions About the Midwest Region

Louisville is the odds-on favorite to not just advance out of the Midwest Region, but win the National Championship. Which team has the best chance at dashing Louisville’s title hopes?

Does Pitino Have Another One of These In His Immediate Future? (Getty Images)

Andrew Murawa: After giving the Cards the nod as the overall #1 seed, the selection committee certainly didn’t do them any more favors, dropping them in, what is to me, the toughest region in the bracket. Once they get out of the Round of 64 in this region, Rick Pitino’s club could be facing nothing but dangerous clubs, from the nation’s best rebounding team in Colorado State, to one of the nation’s hottest teams in Saint Louis, to possibly Michigan State or Duke in the Elite Eight. All of those teams can beat the Cards. But the team with the best chance is certainly the Blue Devils, a squad that has already beaten them this season, albeit without Gorgui Dieng.

The #8 vs. #9 game is usually a coin-flip type of game, but it is a 100% consensus that Colorado State beats Missouri. Are the Rams that much better than Missouri?

Zach Hayes: The Rams are by no means world-beaters, but the consensus opinion probably stems from their ability to compete where Missouri excels: on the boards. Colorado State ranks in the nation’s top two in both offensive and defensive rebounding, a glass-crashing tenacity which should work to negate the rebounding prowess of both Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers. The confidence also resides in how shaky Missouri has been at the tail end of close games despite featuring an elite point guard in Phil Pressey. Most bracket prognosticators would rather go to war with a Rams team starting five seniors over Missouri’s constant unpredictability away from home, where their only scalps came against the dregs of the SEC.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. As Travis Hines of the Ames Tribune points out, it will be a contrast of styles when Iowa State and Notre Dame meet up in the Round of 64 in Dayton on Friday. The Cyclones can run and shoot as well as any team in the nation. They rely on their uptempo style and a barrage of three–pointers to win games. The Irish, as Hines notes, are 320th in the country in adjusted tempo, far from the running and gunning preference of Iowa State. Whichever team controls the tempo should win this one. And I think with the nerves of the NCAA Tournament involved, it will be easier for the Cyclones to draw the Irish into a fast-paced game to seize the advantage and advance.
2. It’s hard to argue with The Lawrence Journal-World‘s Tom Keegan when he says Kansas has the toughest road to the Final Four in Atlanta. The Jayhawks could face a hot (and vastly improved) North Carolina team in the Round of 32, a team that was transformed last month after Roy Williams decided to switch to a smaller lineup. The Tar Heels look more like a #6 or #7 seed at this point. After that, a likely meeting with VCU or Michigan awaits in the Sweet Sixteen. The Rams wreak as much havoc on opposing guards as any team in the country, and the Kansas backcourt isn’t the most adept team at handling pressure. But that’s if the Rams get by Michigan, a formerly #1 ranked team with National Player of the Year candidate Trey Burke running the show. Should they survive that, another formerly #1 ranked team, Florida, could be in the Elite Eight. That’s assuming Big East regular season c0-champs Georgetown aren’t there waiting instead. Advance the Jayhawks to the Final Four in your bracket at your own risk.
3. Speaking of bad draws,#5 seed Oklahoma State is stuck with #12 Oregon in the Round of 64. Joe Lunardi thinks the Ducks are underseeded “by four to six lines,” John Helsley notes. Cowboys head coach Travis Ford told Helsley that Oregon is “one of the best #12 seeds I’ve ever seen.” The Ducks finished second in the Pac-12 regular season standings and won the conference tournament last weekend, yet somehow ended up just inside the bubble when the bracket was announced. Oregon has been a sexy upset pick since the bracket was announced and opened as only three-point underdogs in Vegas.
4. The United States Basketball Writers Association named Kansas’ Jeff Withey and Ben McLemore second-team All-Americans on Monday, and they were joined by Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart. Smart was arguably the best freshman in the country this season, averaging 15.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 4.2 APG for the Cowboys. Ben McLemore averaged 16.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG for the Jayhawks and looks to be a top three pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. Jeff Withey saw the usual transformation that Kansas big men have experienced when given the chance to shine, averaging 13.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG, and 3.8 BPG this season.
5. It seems like a #2 seed loses in the Round of 32 almost every year. The #10 seed Oklahoma could make that happen again if they can take out San Diego State in the Round of 64, likely earning a shot against #2 seed Georgetown. And if the Sooners do knock off the Hoyas, senior guard Steven Pledger will probably have something to do with the upset. Pledger averages 11.8 PPG and shoots 37% from three-point range. His 20 points against Baylor on January 30 helped give the Sooners a 74-71 win — but when he struggles offensively, so does his team. In the last two games — losses to TCU and Iowa State — Pledger had 10 points total. That won’t cut it if an upset of Georgetown is in order.

Throughout Monday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (9 AM), Midwest (11 AM), South (1 PM), West (3 PM). Here, Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) breaks down the West Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC West Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCwestregion).

You can also check out our RTC Podblast with Andrew breaking down the West Region, which will drop both on the site and on iTunes Tuesday.

West Region

Favorite: #2 Ohio State (26-7, 16-5 Big Ten). Not to take anything away from Gonzaga, a team and a program that should be very pleased with itself for the excellent season it has had, but the Buckeyes get the nod by an eyelash. While the Zags have been coasting through WCC play for the past couple months, Thad Matta’s club has dealt with the gauntlet of the Big Ten and emerged with an eight-game winning streak, boasting wins over teams like Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan State (twice). Aaron Craft, a veteran guard with plenty of great basketball in his past, is probably playing the best ball of his distinguished career. And guys like LaQuinton Ross, Sam Thompson and Lenzelle Smith are tossing in just enough offense to aid big-time scorer Deshaun Thomas. Throw in the nation’s sixth-best team in defensive efficiency and let’s make the battle-tested Buckeyes a slight favorite to repeat as a Final Four team.

Aaron Craft and The Buckeyes Have Been Through The Big Ten Gauntlet, Making Them The Slight West Regional Favorite

Should They Falter: #1 Gonzaga (31-2, 18-0 WCC). It would be easy to play the contrarian here and offer up plenty of backlash to the Bulldogs’ first-ever #1 seed and name New Mexico – a pretty darn good team in their own right – as the next best team in this region. But make no mistake, Gonzaga can ball. With Kelly Olynyk, a first-team All-American favorite, the Zags have the third-most efficient offense in the nation and Mark Few’s best offensive team in his time in Spokane. And while there are some concerns about the Zags’ ability to match up defensively with big and athletic guards, this is a team that is also Few’s most efficient defensive team ever – by far. While there are plenty of potential stumbling blocks (regardless of who they face in the Round of 32, that looks like a serious rumble, for instance), the Zags definitely have the ability to reach an Elite Eight. Or better. Read the rest of this entry »

There were no surprises on Selection Sunday in the Big 12 Conference. Kansas earned a #1 seed after winning the league tournament this weekend. Kansas State and Oklahoma State, the two other Top 25 teams in the conference, got top-five seeds. Oklahoma and Iowa State weren’t locks, but they had decent resumes heading into Sunday and both earned at-large bids without much debate. And Baylor, after bowing out in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament to the Cowboys, was relegated to the NIT. That’s what we thought would happen. So that’s five Big 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament, representative of a good-but-not-great year in the league. In the hours after Selection Sunday, here are a few quick reactions to each team’s respective draws:

1. Kansas State gets Kansas City: We knew Kansas would return to the Sprint Center for the Second and Third Rounds. That was a given. But after Kansas State lost to the Jayhawks in the finals on Saturday, it certainly wasn’t a given that the committee would send the Wildcats there. Fortunately for Bruce Weber, it got a lucky draw and can now bus a few hours from Manhattan for its second round game against the winner of La Salle/Boise State. After the loss on Saturday, Weber recalled his Illinois team’s trip to nearby St. Louis for the 2005 Final Four and said he’d of course enjoy a similar home atmosphere on the first weekend of the Tournament this March. There will surely be Jayhawks blue in the stands rooting against the Wildcats, but if they make it to the Third Round, they’ll have a significant advantage against either Ole Miss or Wisconsin. There’s an argument that playing in front of a semi-home crowd adds more pressure — Weber also recalled this particular situation occurring during his days as an assistant at Purdue — but we’re not sure that holds much weight. Bottom line is, playing a few hours from home is a big deal. It matters. It changes the dynamics of the match-up. And for a #4 seed especially, it’s a really fortunate situation.
   

   Doesn’t seem fair that the “reward” for the Cowboys is a date with the Pac-12 tournament champs.

2. Oklahoma State and collateral damage: Everybody’s angry that Oregon received a #12 seed. It doesn’t seem to make any logical sense, but the lost storyline here is how it affects Oklahoma State. The Cowboys now have to play the Pac-12 Tournament champions in their first NCAA Tournament game — and they’re the #5 seed, for crying out loud! Travis Ford’s team could not have drawn a worse #12 seed. It’s criminal, really. Oregon won at UNLV, beat Arizona and knocked off UCLA twice. You could argue that Oregon’s almost as good a team as Oklahoma State, based on both pure talent and resume. Life ain’t fair, is it?
3. No worries for Iowa State and Oklahoma: They did it. They got in, both as #10 seeds. The bubble wasn’t very strong this year (which seems to be a trend during the past five years or so, whatever that means for college basketball), but after the Big 12 Tournament, these two teams were far from locks. Oklahoma looked like it might be in trouble after completely imploding in a loss to the Cyclones in the quarterfinals, and then Iowa State went out and hardly competed with Kansas in the semifinals. The committee gave them difficult match-ups: Oklahoma faces San Diego State, and Iowa State will play Notre Dame. Both of those teams have been ranked in the Top 25 at some point this year and may be a little bit underseeded. But the important thing is that both ISU and OU got in. For the Sooners, it’s a notable accomplishment for Lon Kruger in just his second year. It’s been a quick rebuilding process, that’s for sure, but we’d expect nothing less from Kruger. And Fred Hoiberg did a nice job with this team after losing Royce White, Chris Allen and Scott Christopherson. The Cyclones are a fun, high-octane team that could surprise some people if they knock down some threes (you know they love to shoot them). Read the rest of this entry »

The games are over, and in a few short hours the speculation will be finished as well. Kansas and Kansas State highlighted the Big 12 Tournament with a highly anticipated championship game after they split the regular season title. Kansas completed the season sweep of the Wildcats and may have earned a #1 seed while doing so. But more on that in a minute. Iowa State and Oklahoma have been on the NCAA Tournament bubble for a few weeks now. The Cyclones likely solidified their spot in the dance with the quarterfinal win over the Sooners in Kansas City on Thursday. As of last night, the Cyclones were a #10 seed at Bracket Matrix, ahead of nine other at-large teams. There really isn’t a reason to worry about Iowa State making the field of 68 this afternoon, but crazier things have happened, I suppose. Oklahoma is in a tougher spot. They ended the regular season with a terrible loss to TCU, and like Iowa State, needed a win in the conference tournament to calm their nerves heading into today. Bracket Matrix still has the Sooners alive, however, as an #11 seed. They are ahead of seven at-large teams, so bracketologists don’t seem to think the Sooners have anything to worry about, either. But what about Kansas and a possible #1 seed?

Kansas Won The Big 12 Tournament Saturday, Strengthening Its Case For A #1 Seed (Nick Krug, KUSports.com).

It seemed impossible a month ago after Kansas lost three consecutive games and dropped to #14 in the AP Poll. But the Jayhawks started winning. And a regular season finale loss to Baylor notwithstanding, they haven’t stopped, going 11-1 since February 9. With two more RPI top 50 wins under their belt after beating Iowa State and Kansas State this weekend, the Jayhawks have put themselves in a good position to grab a #1 seed this afternoon. I said going into the weekend that Kansas and Louisville could jump Gonzaga if both teams won their respective conference tournaments, and I still believe so. But Duke’s loss to Maryland in the ACC quarterfinals Friday gives us more questions to answer. But let’s assume Indiana and Louisville are locks for top seeds. That leaves three teams that have separated themselves from the potential #2 seeds but haven’t quite earned the “lock” title given to the Hoosiers and Cardinals. That would be Kansas, Duke, and Gonzaga. Here is what the resumes look like:

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After four months of basketball, fields for the NCAA, NIT, and CBI will be released tomorrow. In this piece, we’ll put together where each Pac-12 team fits into the picture as of late afternoon Saturday.

*Conference Champ

Definitely Dancing: Arizona is the highest ranked Pac-12 team, and will remain the highest no matter the result of the UCLA/Oregon game tonight. The Wildcats have to like their current standing on the seed line, as it gives them a chance at an opening game with a team that will have played two days earlier. I project either Iowa State or Virginia to be that team, and if I were a Wildcats fan, I’d be pulling hard for Virginia rather than the Cyclones. Next up is six seed UCLA, and if they beat Oregon tonight to take home both the regular season and conference titles, I see them climbing up to a low five-seed. But right now they would match up with Bucknell, the Patriot League champions that finished the season at 28-5. The Bison are much more dangerous than your usual mid-major conference champion, ranking only behind Gonzaga, New Mexico, Saint Louis, Memphis, and Creighton as the mid-major conference champs. Our final lock goes to Oregon, a team that slipped to the bubble last week before winning its first two Pac-12 Tournament games and advancing to the tournament championship game. The Ducks will of course want to win tonight, but knowing their only escape from the #8/#9 game will be with a loss to the Bruins, a defeat wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If they were to remain where they currently are at 3:00 PM PT tomorrow, I have Dana Altman and company meeting NC State in the Second Round.

Read the rest of this entry »