Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, where we focus in on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams or player stats and trends. This week we will also look at which of the Four Factors are most important to winning in the ACC. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 10th.

Current Standings

Things have tightened up at the top of the standings as North Carolina has come back to the field following its recent road trip, which included losses to Louisville and Notre Dame. The depth of the ACC is on display here – 10 teams have winning records and all are even or better in points per possession performance. In a bit of bad news for the rest of the league – Virginia’s stingy defense is back! After allowing each of their first eight conference opponents to top 1.00 points per possession, Tony Bennett’s team has held the last four foes to an average of 0.81 PPP. None of those last four opposing offenses have scored over 50 points, and the Cavaliers have now won their last seven contests. It will be interesting to see if Virginia can maintain its defensive acumen this Saturday at Duke, where it will face the nation’s 2nd rated offense. The Blue Devils have been the one ACC school that has been able to handle Bennett’s pack line defense over the last four years, averaging 1.07 points per possession against the Cavaliers in five meetings.

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Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Sean Moran, the RTC recruiting guru. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to discussing the recruitment of the top uncommitted players in the country. We also encourage you to check out his contributions at The Intentional Foul dedicated to recruiting coverage and analysis. You can also follow Sean at his Twitter account @Seanmohoops for up-to-date news from the high school and college hoops scene. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Note: Scout.com used for all player rankings.

Jonathan Isaac committed to Florida State last July, but the 6’10” small forward became a trending topic in the recruiting world last Friday. Interestingly, it wasn’t because of how the five-star senior (No. 10 – 2016) played in a game, nor was it because a ridiculous mix tape had been released. Instead, a Sports Illustrated report focused on the idea that Isaac was considering a bypass of his one-year pit stop in Tallahassee by making the direct leap from prep school to the NBA.

Isaac began high school in 2011, originally putting him in the Class of 2015 with such players as LSU’s Ben Simmons, Duke’s Brandon Ingram, Marquette’s Henry Ellenson. The talented wing played his first two years at Barron Collier in Naples (FL) prior to an additional two years at the International School of Broward (FL). He is currently spending this season, his fifth year of high school basketball, at IMG Academy.

NBA rules require U.S. players to be both a year removed from graduation from high school and at least 19 years old in the draft year to enter its draft. Since Isaac will turn 19 next October, he would meet that requirement. But there is some room for interpretation on the other requirement, specifically whether the NBA requires a player to be one year removed from actual graduation (which for Isaac, would set the clock ticking this spring) or one year removed from his original classes’ graduation (which for Isaac, was last spring). The NBA, for what it’s worth, weighed in with its position that Isaac is not eligible for this year’s draft.

While Isaac could have tested the waters of interpretation by taking a chance to follow a former IMG player (Satnam Singh) to the pros, Isaac instead seemed to put the debate to rest when he tweeted the following earlier this week:

https://twitter.com/jisaac_01/status/697092196353318912

Regardless of how this settles, Florida State has recruited a very good player. Isaac played on the famed E1T1 AAU squad, a team that has produced players such as D’Angelo Russell, Grayson Allen, and the aforementioned Simmons in recent years. Isaac averaged 13.9 points and 6.2 rebounds in the Nike EYBL, tantalizing observers with his skill set combined with great length. In the fall, Isaac participated in the USA Basketball Developmental Camp and was one of the most impressive prospects among a plethora of five-star recruits. He ran the floor with grace while showing off a tight jump shot.

Isaac will join two four-star recruits in shooting guard Trent Forrest (No. 92) and point guard C.J. Walker to form the No. 11 recruiting class in 2016. While current freshmen shooting guard Malik Beasley and small forward Dwayne Bacon might test their own NBA Draft status with the new rules allowing greater flexibility, a nucleus of Isaac along with that pair would make Florida State one of the most talented teams in next year’s ACC.

For now, Isaac will finish off his year at IMG Academy before beginning his All-Star travels. NBA scouts scoping his talents for the 2017 draft will get their first glimpse of Isaac in April at the Nike Hoop Summit practices.

After Friday afternoon’s bombshell announcement that Louisville was self-imposing a postseason ban, the attention returned to the play on the floor for fourteen ACC schools this weekend. In a rarity, five league road teams were favored in the seven matchups, but only three managed to extract victories. In the marquee contest, Notre Dame continued its recent run of superiority over the ACC’s two most storied programs, as the Irish rallied for a big upset win in South Bend over North Carolina in ESPN’s prime time game on Saturday night. Earlier in the day, Virginia Tech also pulled off a mild surprise as the Hokies edged Clemson in Blacksburg, significantly damaging the Tigers’ postseason hopes in the process. In other action, the ACC’s two leading scorers dueled in Durham, with Grayson Allen and Anthony ‘Cat’ Barber putting on a show as Duke defeated N.C. State for the second time this year. Here are some of the highlights from a busy weekend around the ACC.

Demetrius Jackson and Zach Auguste celebrate Notre Dame’s upset win over North Carolina. (Getty Images)

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1. The big news over the weekend (ok, technically it came out on Friday afternoon) was Louisville‘s decision to self-impose a postseason ban for this season as the result of its prostitution scandal. While they aren’t the first school to self-impose a ban during the middle of the season (a team from their own conference–Syracuse–did it last year) the decision to do it for a team that has the potential to make a run in the NCAA Tournament is a little unusual particularly since the NCAA would never have come to a decision before the season ended. There are several obvious issues: what the school knows that made it make the decision now, how unfair it is to the players (particularly the graduate transfers), and whether the NCAA will take this into consideration if and when they announce any sanctions. For his part, Rick Pitino put the blame on the NCAA (instead of pointing the finger at himself) and suggested that the programs should be fined $10 million and the coach should be fined 50 percent of his salary. While we can appreciate that in theory, we would love to see Pitino step up and give back 50 percent of his salary to some charitable cause.
2. The other big news of the weekend was Iowa State‘s decision to suspend senior forward Jameel McKay indefinitely as the result of something that happened at a practice on Thursday afternoon. McKay, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year last season, has averaged 12 points, 9 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game this season. As with any “indefinite suspension” the main question is how long that suspension will be. According to a tweet from McKay, it might end up being just one game. While the school has not addressed the duration given how vocal McKay has been about the length of the suspension without a correction from the school we tend to believe him.
3. While Bruce Pearl has done a good job winning over the media during his time at Auburn, the on-court results have been less impressive. The latest setback comes in the form of Kareem Canty, the team’s leading scorer at 18.3 points per game, being suspended indefinitely. The school did not specify the reason for the suspension, but Pearl said Canty’s “effort and attitude have been extremely inconsistent, which led to actions and behavior that are unacceptable.” Pearl has already suggested the possibility of Canty coming back on the team later this season so we don’t think this suspension will last that long.
4. Players of the caliber of McKay and Canty can get away with certain things, but when you have minimal contributions and repeatedly get in trouble sometimes you run out of forgiveness as Daquan Cook found out when he was dismissed from UNLV for unspecified reasons. Cook, who has either been injured or suspended recently, was let go by interim coach Todd Simon and had been suspended for the first two months of the season after getting arrested over the summer on DUI charges. Cook is expected to graduate this spring and could theoretically try to go to another program, but we doubt anybody significant would take him given all the baggage he has.
5. Pete Thamel’s report that FSU commit Jon Isaac could try to enter the 2016 NBA Draft has not gathered a lot of attention yet, but it is certainly something worth watching. Isaac, a top-10 recruit who is just 18, but will be eligible because he entered high school in 2011 even though he has not graduated high school yet (just needs to be one year removed from his class graduating), is going to utilize the new rule that gives players the option of entering the NBA Draft, but then withdrawing their name at a later date than previously allowed. It will be interesting to see if more players utilize this although Isaac is an unusual case because of his age and year entering high school.

Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, focusing on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams or player stats and trends. This week we examine home court advantage within the league. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 3rd.

Current StandingsDespite Monday night’s defeat at Louisville, North Carolina is still the ACC’s best team in both the standings and in points per possession (PPP) margin. Interestingly, even though much has been made of Duke’s struggles (the Blue Devils are currently in eighth place), it has outperformed every team but one above them in the standings. It appears that Mike Krzyzewski’s team’s inability to win the close ones is the real issue that must be fixed — Duke has lost all three of its contests that were decided by five points or fewer. Conversely, Clemson and Pittsburgh have each benefited by winning all three of their five-point or fewer margin games. Looking further down the standings, we see that N.C. State and Georgia Tech have basically performed at a level equal to Florida State and better than Virginia Tech, but they trail both of those teams in the current standings by at least two games. Heading into the back nine of conference play, future opponents should consider themselves warned — the Wolfpack and Yellow Jackets may barely rank above the likes of Wake Forest and Boston College in the standings, but they are both significantly better than the leagues’ worst two teams. Read the rest of this entry »

It was not a weekend of tight games in the ACC, with all but one of the seven contests featuring a final margin in double figures. Saturday’s heavyweight matchup between Virginia and Louisville turned out to be completely one-sided, as the visiting Cavaliers dominated from the outset in the nationally-televised game. N.C. State pulled off the biggest upset of the weekend by taking out Miami behind a remarkable performance from its star point guard. North Carolina easily dispatched Boston College, as expected; Florida State avenged an earlier loss by beating Clemson in Tallahassee; and Syracuse edged Georgia Tech in the only close contest on Saturday. Sunday featured two home wins for teams that remain a part of the crowded upper half of the ACC standings – Notre Dame easily handled Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh took care of Virginia Tech. Here are some of the highlights from the weekend around the ACC.

Malcolm Brogdon led the way in Virginia’s domination over Louisville.
(Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

• Best Win: Just a short week ago, we still weren’t sure what to make of Tony Bennett’s team. They were clearly in a rut, having lost all three league road games, and they were facing a week with two more away games. For 39 minutes in Winston-Salem on Tuesday it appeared as if those woes away from home would continue. But a miracle comeback gave Virginia its first ACC road win and appears to have sparked something more. The Cavaliers manhandled the ACC’s second place team, 63-47, in a masterful defensive performance that held Louisville’s two leading scorers (Damion Lee and Trey Lewis) without a point in the first half (the pair finished with 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting). The Cardinals never challenged, allowing Virginia to cruise to its most impressive ACC performance of the year. Seniors Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill led the charge with 13 points each. If this weekend’s performance is any indication, it may be a bit premature to count out the Cavaliers with respect to a third consecutive ACC regular season title.

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1. Newport News Daily Press: If you didn’t see Wake Forest’s epic collapse against Virginia last week, it was an all-timer. Truly, it was a spectacle. And this article doesn’t even mention that the game broke Bill James’ “safe lead” formula! But the real reason to talk about the beneficiary of Wake’s choke job is the Cavaliers’ subsequent dismantling of Louisville on the road on Saturday. There were (and are) questions surrounding Louisville (e.g., the Cardinals haven’t beaten a certain NCAA Tournament team yet), but statistically, they came into that game as the best team in the ACC. Emphasis on were (they’re now third in the league, according to Ken Pomeroy). Virginia was awesome offensively and completely locked down Damion Lee on the other end. It was the best performance by any ACC team in any game this season.
2. Winston-Salem Journal: Wake Forest fans don’t want or need to be reminded of this, but the program’s road struggles have continued under head coach Danny Manning (to his credit, many of his players overlap with the disastrous Jeff Bzdelik era). Wake Forest is now 2-48 in its last 50 ACC road games, with the two wins coming against Boston College (2012) and Virginia Tech (2014). Manning was quick to point out that “it doesn’t weigh on me from that sense, this is my second year,” but if the slump continues into another year, he’ll start feeling more pressure.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: “This schedule has been so ridiculous I can’t even remember what the crap day it is,” North Carolina’s Roy Williams complained last week. Meanwhile, Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim described the league’s schedule as “horrific.” Needless to say, the two longtime coaches (here’s betting Mike Krzyzewski would join them in their displeasure) aren’t very happy with the effect of television and realignment on ACC schedules. But Williams wasn’t done complaining: He’s also tired of hearing about Ben Simmons “Green Room Guys.” Come to show solidarity; stay for the Tom Izzo anecdote.
4. Notre Dame Insider: Senior forward Zach Auguste has seen his field goal percentage drop precipitously in ACC play this season. The dip may be related to Jerian Grant’s missing ability to spread the floor and give the big man additional space to operate. Tom Noie thinks so, suggesting that Auguste’s shot selection may be more challenging in the All-American’s absence. Auguste thinks he may just need to slow down. Either way, Notre Dame has a very tough upcoming four-game stretch (at Miami; vs. North Carolina; at Clemson; vs. Louisville) and the Irish will need everything from Auguste they can get.
5. Tomahawk Nation: Florida State is rounding into form after an important weekend home win over Clemson. Perhaps most promising from the victory was the strong play from veteran Devon Bookert. The Seminoles are also starting to flash some vintage Leonard Hamilton defense in how they’re blocking shots and playing typically disruptive perimeter defense.

EXTRA: This excerpt from former Duke star Jay Williams’ new book is great.

With approximately four weeks of conference play now in the books, it’s time to take a closer look at the ACC. This is the first edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, focusing on which teams are playing better or worse than their records may indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, January 27th.

Current Standings

So far, the league standings mostly reflect how well the teams are playing on a per possession basis. Syracuse is the only team with a losing record that has a positive scoring margin. That’s due to the Orange’s blowouts of the two schools at the bottom of the list, Wake Forest and Boston College. We have heard some in the media describe the ACC as having a clear best and worst team, as if North Carolina is as far above the rest of the league’s schools as Boston College is below them. The per possession numbers paint a slightly different picture – the Tar Heels are the best team, but they have not been nearly as good as the Eagles have been bad. Also noteworthy is the fact that Clemson has built its unexpectedly gaudy conference record despite playing the second toughest ACC schedule. What’s more, the four schools ahead of the Tigers in efficiency margin have faced the four easiest ACC slates thus far. Perhaps Brad Brownell’s group is a true contender for a top four league finish and the ACC Tournament double-bye that comes with it.

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1. The Dagger: I agree wholeheartedly with the headline of this article. Duke shouldn’t be ranked next week. But the reason Miami didn’t rush the court against Duke says as much about the Miami program under Jim Larranaga as it does about the undermanned Blue Devils. More on Duke’s recent struggles and their NCAA Tournament hopes later, but don’t let that distract from the fact that the Hurricanes are great this season. They’re experienced, well-coached, and a little inconsistent.
2. Tomahawk Nation: Exhaustive review from Michael Rogner of Florida State‘s rebounding struggles against Pittsburgh. He classified each offensive board as lucky, good offense, or good defense. My first takeaway reading this was that I wish we had similar numbers for all teams. Florida State’s much smaller than expected because of injuries, so they’ll need to start rebounding by committee.
3. Chicago Tribune: Speaking of important injuries, Demetrius Jackson will be out in Notre Dame’s game Thursday at Syracuse. Jackson’s absence (assuming reports are correct and the team is just being cautious) may prove a blessing. The reason is freshman Rex Pflueger has played very well in the last three games after only playing more than ten minutes once earlier in the season. It also gives Steve Vasturia valuable time at point guard, which could be important if Jackson ever gets in foul trouble.
4. Syracuse Post Standard: If the Orange want to safely make the NCAA Tournament, the next five games are all close to must-wins. The first four are at home and the Orange should be favored in all four. At 3-5 in ACC play, Syracuse has to claw it’s way into the top half of the conference. They do have two very strong non-conference wins (Connecticut and Texas A&M), but the St. John’s loss looks awful.
5. Louisville Courier-Journal: Louisville is an enigma. Statistically, they’re a great team. But they have no “great” wins (the last three are the only ones even worth mentioning). We should find out more  starting Saturday. Eight of the teams last 11 games are against likely NCAA Tournament teams (not even counting Pittsburgh as one), including at Duke, Virginia, and Miami. Rick Pitino, mildly trolling, noted: “It reminds me so much of the Big East in its prime.”

EXTRA: The NCAA made a good decision pushing back the date college players have to declare for the NBA Draft until after the combine. That gives kids a lot more time to get accurate information on where they might be picked. And while coaches might privately complain about the uncertainty (publicly doing so in the current climate would be out of touch), they may see more borderline guys come back and this should prevent the draft from becoming a distraction during the NCAA Tournament.

Once again, it wasn’t exactly a weekend of mega-matchups in the ACC. Going into Saturday’s action, the league had seven teams rated in KenPom’s top 38, yet none of them faced each other over the weekend. Some of the games were affected by winter storm Jonas, which caused the rescheduling of two games. On Sunday afternoon, North Carolina continued its undefeated ways in the ACC by holding off a feisty Virginia Tech squad in a game that was moved from Sunday night due to travel concerns in Blacksburg. Syracuse probably faced the toughest travel adversity, finally arriving in Charlottesville less than seven hours before Sunday night’s tipoff. In a game that had been originally scheduled for Saturday night, Virginia pulled away in the closing seconds to hang on against an Orange team that is suddenly playing well. Saturday, three road teams were successful in tight contests; Duke snapped its three game losing streak by beating N.C. State in Raleigh; Louisville gave Georgia Tech another tough home loss; and Pittsburgh rallied from a big halftime deficit to overtake Florida State. In other Saturday action, Miami broke open a tight game late to defeat Wake Forest, and Notre Dame blasted Boston College even though the Irish lost point guard Demetrius Jackson to injury just minutes into the game. Here are some of the highlights from the weekend in the ACC.

Tony Bennett and Virginia earned a hard fought win over Syracuse on Sunday night.
(Stephen D. Cannerelli/syracuse.com)

• Best Win: Since we didn’t have any blockbuster matchups or big upsets this weekend, we will declare Virginia‘s home 73-65 victory over Syracuse as the best ACC win of the weekend. The Cavaliers came into the contest with a disappointing 3-3 ACC record and were facing one of the hottest teams in the league. After dropping their first four league games, the Orange had ripped off three straight wins, including two on the road. The Syracuse surge looks to be directly related to the return of Jim Boeheim, who had to serve a NCAA mandated nine-game suspension that included the school’s first three ACC games. The Cavaliers led most of the way but couldn’t shake the Orange, who made 13 three-pointers, until the end. Tony Bennett‘s big three led the way as usual; Malcolm Brogdon scored 21 points; Anthony Gill had 16 points and eight rebounds; and London Perrantes finished with 16 points and seven assists.
• Worst Loss: After 20 minutes of play, Florida State was looking good against Pittsburgh. The Seminoles were at home, leading by 10, and playing a team coming off a confidence killing home loss to NC State earlier in the week. But two weaknesses from the past came back to haunt Leonard Hamilton‘s team, who let the Panthers come back to take an important 74-72 win in a matchup of NCAA Tournament hopefuls. Somehow, Florida State managed to lose despite outshooting Pitt from the field by a wide margin (53.7 percent to 39.3 percent). Pitt won as a result of having more chances to score, thanks to a +6 edge in both offensive rebounds and turnovers. Those two areas have long been an issue for the Seminoles during Hamilton’s tenure, but hadn’t this year until conference play began. Currently, Florida State ranks 13th in the league in turnover margin and last in defensive rebounding percentage in ACC games.

Grayson Allen had a strong all-around game to help Duke end its losing streak.
(Ethan Hyman/The News & Observer)

• Most Outstanding Player: Few Duke teams have needed a regular season win as desperately as this team needed this win on Saturday against rival N.C. State. The Blue Devils had lost three consecutive ACC games coming into the day, all of which had been winnable in the final minute of play. Grayson Allen made sure the Blue Devils’ losing streak came to an end with an excellent all-around performance. The sophomore guard led all scorers with 28 points, shooting 11-17 from the floor and 5-5 from the line. Allen also dished out seven assists and helped out on the glass, finishing with seven rebounds – six of them on the defensive end. Allen is making a strong case for first team All-ACC honors, as he currently ranks second in the ACC in scoring. He’s also fifth in both field goal percentage and assists in ACC games.
• Unsung Heroes: The most obvious choice here is sophomore big man Anas Mahmoud of Louiville. The native of Cairo, Egypt more than doubled his previous career high, finishing with 15 points in the Cardinals’ road win over Georgia Tech. Mahmoud has been gaining more confidence and playing time from Rick Pitino lately, averaging close to eight points and six boards in his last four outings. Pitt’s Jamie Dixon was glad to see Sterling Smith snap out of his slump, as the graduate transfer tied his season-high with 16 points, including four three-pointers. Smith was much more aggressive than he was in his three prior contests, when he only attempted a total of four shots in 56 minutes of play. Finally, Miami’s Ja’Quan Newton deserves recognition. Newton helped break open a tight game with Wake Forest by scoring 13 of his 18 points in the second half. The aggressive sophomore has been solid off the bench all year for the Hurricanes – he’s second on the team in both scoring and assists, and leads the team in free throw attempts despite playing less than 22 minutes per game.
• Most Efficient Offense/Least Efficient Defense: At half-time of Saturday’s game in Raleigh, Duke trailed by seven, which was due in great part to a soft Blue Devil zone defense that allowed N.C. State to shoot 56.7 percent from the field. But according to Mike Krzyzewski after the game, despite the deficit and defensive struggles, the zone at least allowed his thin Duke team to be much fresher for the second half than they had been in their previous three losses. The strategy worked (at least for one game) as Duke scored 52 points on 31 second half possessions. For the game, the Blue Devils averaged 1.33 points per possession. Duke shot the ball well in all areas: 65 percent on two-pointers, 40 percent on threes, and 78 percent from the foul line.
• Most Efficient Defense/Least Efficient Offense: We don’t expect to see Notre Dame’s defense win this honor very often, but when the opponent is Boston College, even the Irish’s normally generous defense can look good. The Eagles managed only 0.74 points per possession on Saturday in South Bend and rank 338th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. You can safely expect to see them in this category a few more times this season. The biggest issue for BC in this game was two-point shooting, as the Eagles made just eight of their 38 two-point attempts.