Inside The ACC Numbers: Volume I
Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on January 29th, 2016With approximately four weeks of conference play now in the books, it’s time to take a closer look at the ACC. This is the first edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, focusing on which teams are playing better or worse than their records may indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.
Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, January 27th.
Current Standings
So far, the league standings mostly reflect how well the teams are playing on a per possession basis. Syracuse is the only team with a losing record that has a positive scoring margin. That’s due to the Orange’s blowouts of the two schools at the bottom of the list, Wake Forest and Boston College. We have heard some in the media describe the ACC as having a clear best and worst team, as if North Carolina is as far above the rest of the league’s schools as Boston College is below them. The per possession numbers paint a slightly different picture – the Tar Heels are the best team, but they have not been nearly as good as the Eagles have been bad. Also noteworthy is the fact that Clemson has built its unexpectedly gaudy conference record despite playing the second toughest ACC schedule. What’s more, the four schools ahead of the Tigers in efficiency margin have faced the four easiest ACC slates thus far. Perhaps Brad Brownell’s group is a true contender for a top four league finish and the ACC Tournament double-bye that comes with it.
Advanced Stat of the Week: Life Without Boston College
Imbalanced league schedules are a product of the football-driven conference expansion over the last dozen years. Among major conferences, only the Big 12 and Big East still conduct a complete round robin format. Like the rest of the super-conferences, the ACC must rotate home-and-home partner schools, leading to some disparity in schedule strength within the league. This year, anyone who gets to play Boston College twice has quite an advantage, especially when you look at per possession numbers. The above table shows what the per possession numbers would look like if you took the Eagles totally out of the equation. Note that the biggest drop in margin belongs to Notre Dame because – you guessed it, the Irish have already played – and blasted – BC twice already. The other three ACC squads with the good fortune of doubling up against Jim Christian’s team are Syracuse, Clemson, and North Carolina. Look for the Tar Heels to extend their ACC lead in efficiency margin over the next four games, since two of those will be against the Eagles.
Bonus Stat of the Week: ACC Offenses
If you want to see efficient offensive basketball, the ACC is the league to follow. Currently, the league’s average in conference games (1.07 points per possession) ranks fourth nationally and is first among the major conferences. Fueling that scoring prowess is the country’s seventh lowest turnover rate and third highest offensive rebound percentage. Overall league shooting is about average, but free throw accuracy (71.4%) is the ninth-best in the land. The ACC does not rely much on three-point shooting as a whole, ranking fourth from the bottom in three-point attempt percentage. Before you blame the league’s defenses for the strong scoring numbers, remember that before league play started, seven ACC schools were rated highly in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, and five are still in the top 10.
Future Forecast
The above chart gives us a predicted order of finish with final regular season records based on Ken Pomeroy’s current win probabilities for each team. Also included are a few comparative rankings that are mentioned frequently when evaluating NCAA Tournament potential, as well as projections from two bracketology experts, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports‘ Jerry Palm. Note that while they project as if the field was named tomorrow, we make our projections based on final KenPom projected records. Clemson looms as the most controversial ACC bubble team. Would they get the benefit of the doubt for such a high finish in a strong ACC? Or would they be excluded due to a wretched non-conference performance? Currently we include the Tigers as the ACC’s ninth team in the Tournament. We also included Syracuse in the field of 68 for now, even though the Orange are projected to receive a 13th loss in the ACC Tournament. We’re banking on Syracuse’s strong strength of schedule to earn the benefit of the doubt from the Selection Committee.
