Morning Five: 04.11.12 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on April 11th, 2012

  1. After running the NCAA Tournament for over a decade, Greg Shaheen was replaced yesterday by Mark Lewis. As the article by Jeff Goodman points out Shaheen was widely respected within the college basketball community and was viewed as a good person to work with. We are not privy to the inner workings of the NCAA so we will not comment on how the entire process went down. We can however comment on our multiple interactions with him over the years and have to say that he always dealt with us fairly and when other people in similar positions of power may have been less likely to be as welcoming. We are not sure what his plans are, but there should be plenty of other organizations and companies that take a good, hard look at him for whatever openings they may have.
  2. We may have identified the early 2013 national title favorite as Cody Zeller and Christian Watford announced that they will be staying at Indiana for at least one more year. Zeller was the key to the Hoosiers’ resurgence and in most years would have been a serious contender for most national freshman of the year awards while Watford provided what was widely considered the play of the year with his game-winning three against Kentucky. With those two returning Indiana should be poised to compete with Louisville and Kentucky (depending on their additions today) for next year’s national title.
  3. With spring signing day upon us, we have a couple of articles to take you through the key players. The first is from  Eric Bossi, who takes a look at the ten top uncommitted prospects and where they might be headed.  The second is from Kevin Pelton and looks at the top incoming freshman from the Nike Hoop Summit. The names are mostly the same ones you have been hearing for the past year, but it is interesting to see legitimate criticism of their games, which you rarely see from most recruiting services when they discuss the top prospects.
  4. Apparently adding one of the best freshman classes in the country was not enough for Arizona as they picked up T.J. McConnell, a transfer from Duquesne, yesterday. McConnell, who left Duquesne less than a month ago, picked Arizona over Virginia citing among other things his desire to win and compete in the NCAA Tournament. McConnell will not be eligible to play until the 2013-14 season due to transfer rules, but when he does he will have an outstanding supporting cast assuming that most of the incoming freshmen stay in college for more than a year. The addition of McConnell, who will likely be a four-year guy, should also add some stability to the roster over the long-term as many of the more highly rated recruits may not stay all four years.
  5. The Indiana guys may have stolen the headlines, but there were a few others that made significant NBA Draft announcements yesterday. Jeremy Lamb decided that he would leave Connecticut before they had to deal with their 2013 NCAA Tournament ban. The move should not come as much of a surprise and our only question is how long until Andre Drummond joins him. Mason Plumlee will stick around Duke for his senior season, which may have led to Alex Oriakhi announcing that he had taken the Blue Devils off his transfer list. Plumlee’s return is fairly significant in that if he becomes a little more assertive the Blue Devils should be firmly in the top half of the very ACC next season. The last major announcement from yesterday was that Quincy Miller has decided to stay at Baylor for one more year. Miller’s announcement also should not come as a surprise as his freshman year was mediocre enough to scare away most NBA scouts.
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Complete NBA Draft List: After NCAA Deadline, Who’s Staying and Who’s Going?

Posted by EJacoby on April 10th, 2012

Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter.

In a rule that makes absolutely no sense, today (April 10) marks the new official date that college players had to withdraw their names from the NBA Draft pool if they wanted to return back to school with eligibility and had previously declared for draft entry. It’s the NCAA’s deadline. That means that all of the guys who declared since the end of the season (Kendall Marshall, Jared Sullinger, and Meyers Leonard to name a few) had to decide by today whether to forgo their NCAA eligibilities. But the NBA’s own deadline isn’t until April 29, meaning that players can still declare for the draft, but just can’t withdraw anymore and retain college eligibility. Essentially, it just means that “testing the waters” is now done, so if a player enters the draft from here then he is gone for good. Yes, it’s confusing and makes zero sense, but that’s an issue for another day. Today, we wrap up all of the players who are officially sticking in the NBA Draft, those who decided to return to school, and those that are still undecided until April 29. Here’s the status of all the top non-senior players of college basketball:

After Some Debate, Jared Sullinger Declared for the NBA Draft (AP Photo)

DECLARED – These players have entered their names into the NBA Draft and no longer have college eligibility.

  • Harrison Barnes, North Carolina (Sophomore) – The super-hyped prospect had a strong two seasons but perhaps underachieved in the eyes of many UNC fans. He is a surefire lottery pick and could go in the top five so it’s a smart decision to leave.
  • Jared Sullinger, Ohio State (Sophomore) – Dominant as a Buckeye from day one as a freshman, Sullinger’s NBA stock has slowly dropped over the course of two seasons. It’s his time to go now, but he may be slipping out of the top 10. Everyone seems torn on him, but Sully is too talented of a player to fall out of the lottery.
  • Thomas Robinson, Kansas (Junior) – No-brainer. Robinson was a NPOY candidate, accomplished great things in three years at Kansas and will be a top-five draft pick.
  • Kendall Marshall, North Carolina (Sophomore) – Despite being a stacked draft, this year’s pool severely lacks point guards. Marshall lacks athleticism at the position but is a solid height (6’4”) and has elite passing skills and floor awareness that will translate at the NBA level. Could be a surprise top ten pick, and will probably go in the lottery.
  • Austin Rivers, Duke (Freshman) – Another player that scouts are torn on, many believe that Rivers could have used another year of seasoning at Duke. But his scoring prowess is undeniable and someone will grab his talents likely between picks 10 and 20. Read the rest of this entry »
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Weekend Wrap: Buckeyes to the Final Four; Spartans, Hoosiers, Badgers Fall

Posted by jnowak on March 25th, 2012

Four teams enter, one team leaves. The Big Ten had four representatives advance to the second weekend of NCAA Tournament play, but just Ohio State — considered by many to be the toast of the league for much of the season before Michigan State emerged as Big Ten Tournament champions and the conference’s lone #1 seed — will be suiting up in New Orleans next weekend. Here are a few thoughts from the weekend’s action:

Ohio State's Lenzelle Smith Jr. and Deshaun Thomas celebrate their team's win against Syracuse on Saturday. (Michael Dwyer/AP)

  • Tom Izzo was right — The esteemed Michigan State coach, who knows a thing or two about getting through March, has recognized all along that this is not his most talented team but it had as much capability as any other because of its intangible qualities. Because of this, Izzo has also said all along that the group’s margin for error was smaller than maybe ever before. That came to fruition against a red-hot Louisville group on Thursday, as the Spartans turned in one of the worst offensive performances of the tournament. The Cardinals never allowed the Spartans to get into a rhythm and it led to an early exit. If it’s any consolation, Michigan State has been eliminated by a Final Four team in six of the last eight seasons.
  • Does Ohio State have what it takes? — The Buckeyes are Bourbon Street-bound, but can they win two more games? They wouldn’t have to play the top team in the tournament (Kentucky) presumably until the national title game, and have shown that they can keep finding ways to win. They did it without Jared Sullinger for most of the first half Saturday, and William Buford and Deshaun Thomas were both pretty quiet. If everything clicks for this group, they can certainly hang with anybody.
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A Closer Roundtable Look: Indiana vs. Kentucky

Posted by Ryan Terpstra on March 23rd, 2012

Indiana will face Kentucky Friday night in what is one of the most interesting Sweet Sixteen games in the NCAA tournament.  The Hoosiers handed the Wildcats their only regular season loss back on December 10 thanks to a last-second three by Christian Watford.  In the rematch, the stakes are higher, with a spot in the Elite Eight awaiting the winner.  Who will that winner be?  Big Ten micrositers Joey Nowak (@joeynowak) and Ryan Terpstra (@terphimself) debate.

Indiana and Kentucky collide for the second time this year in the Sweet Sixteen (photo: College Sports Madness)

1.  Anthony Davis versus Cody Zeller.  Can Indiana come out on top of this matchup again?

  • Ryan:  In the first matchup of the freshman big men, Cody Zeller clearly came out on top.  He logged 37 minutes, scored 11 points, and grabbed seven rebounds.  Davis, meanwhile, was saddled with foul trouble for most of the game, and finished with just six points in 24 minutes.  IU will certainly try to attack Davis, because removing his defensive impact from the game opens up opportunities for Zeller to find success inside, and guards like Victor Oladipo to take the ball to the basket.  However, Davis seems to have quickly learned his lesson, having not even committed four fouls in a game since that loss to Indiana.  He only has picked up two personal fouls all tournament, and has played 76 minutes in the two games.  Odds are that he’ll be on the floor, and if he is, advantage Kentucky.
  • Joey: What’s so remarkable about Anthony Davis is how he impacts the game in both small and large sample sizes. He’ll alter a shot on the defensive end or register a block, then run the floor and get a put-back or an easy alley-oop. Or, he might not fill the stat sheet that way, but can neutralize almost any big man in the country, alters shots from all over the floor and changes the way teams have to approach games on both ends. Zeller is fantastic because he’s just as polished, and runs the floor like a three or a four for Indiana. Davis has advantage in the half-court setting, so if Indiana is going to want to exploit the Kentucky big man and utilize their own freshman star, it’s gotta be on the break.

2.  What’s the key for the Hoosier defense to keep the explosive Wildcat offense in check?

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NCAA Tournament Game Analysis: Sweet Sixteen Friday

Posted by EJacoby on March 23rd, 2012

RTC Region correspondents Kevin Doyle (South) and Evan Jacoby (Midwest) contributed to this preview.

#3 Baylor vs. #10 Xavier – South Regional Semifinal (at Atlanta, GA) – 7:15 PM ET on CBS

Baylor was supposed to be here, Xavier was not. That is the beauty of March Madness and the NCAA Tournament though: play it out on the floor. One can review all the matchups, crunch the numbers, and look at past tournament history, but sometimes simply getting hot at the right time is a more important factor than anything else. The Xavier Musketeers, an up-and-down team all year following the brawl against Cincinnati back in December, are peaking at just the right time. After a 21 game stretch in the middle of the year that saw Xavier go 10-11, they rebounded by winning five of six; the melee seems like a thing of the distant past right now. What teams should now begin to take notice of: Tu Holloway is back to playing at the level of an All-American. Not to mention, Kenny Frease is looking like one of the most dominant big men in the country after dismantling the Lehigh front line last Sunday. Despite all of this, Baylor is a downright scary team to be playing this weekend, especially with the shooting prowess of Brady Heslip who is a combined 14-22 from downtown. Xavier’s three-point defense is one of the best in the nation as they allow opponents to shoot just 30% from the outside, but can they contain the hot shooting Heslip and the steady Pierre Jackson? Consequently, if Heslip and Jackson are not connecting from distance, the onus will be on Perry Jones III. The Jones-Frease matchup down low is one to keep an eye on, and if we are to take any stock in the first two games, Frease is the one playing better of the two as Jones has combined to score just nine points on 4-14 shooting against South Dakota State and Colorado. A streaky scorer throughout the year, Jones has scored in single digits nine times and double digits 19 times; the Bears will need the latter of Jones’ scoring efforts to keep Xavier honest on defense. Baylor’s only losses this year have come against Big 12 opponents, and I expect this trend to continue as the Bears hold off Holloway and the Musketeers.

The RTC Certified Pick: Baylor

#1 North Carolina vs. #13 Ohio – Midwest Region Semifinals (at St. Louis, MO) – 7:47 PM ET on TBS

The storylines leading up to this game have been completely taken over by Kendall Marshall’s “wrist watch”, but once the ball tips off on Friday night and Marshall is presumably unable to play, then we can finally focus on the matchups in-game. Of course, Marshall’s expected absence will then be the main factor to watch in the game. How will North Carolina distribute minutes at the point guard position against the harassing perimeter defense of D.J. Cooper? Expect Roy Williams to explore several different options, including seldom-used reserves Stilman White and Justin Watts. Both White and Watts average under seven minutes per game and were never expected to be significant factors for the team, but they are the only players with experience at the lead guard spot. But since neither guy is likely to make much of an impact offensively, UNC also could experiment by placing Harrison Barnes at the position in a point-forward role. Barnes has the size to see over any defenders but has never been asked to run an offense. P.J. Hairston and Reggie Bullock, two primary wing shooters, could help Barnes bring the ball up in a point guard by-committee approach, as well.

Regardless, as long as the point guard replacements or by-committee members don’t turn the ball over at an alarming rate, then Carolina should still have the advantage in this game on both ends because of its tremendous forwards. Ohio’s regular rotation only includes two bangers in the post in Reggie Keely and Jon Smith, and while Keely is a solid post defender with bulk at 265 pounds, neither of those players is taller than 6’8”. It will be an adventure trying to defend the most talented front line in the country. Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and James Michael McAdoo should have a field day in the paint, and the lack of a point guard means that every UNC possession should include an early paint touch. Expect big numbers from this trio. But if Ohio is somehow able to key on the UNC bigs and stop the domination in the paint, then the Bobcats can pull another upset by gaining an advantage on the perimeter. Nick Kellogg and Walter Offutt must hit a high percentage of shots from the outside and D.J. Cooper will need another breakout performance to carry this team. It just seems unlikely that Ohio has enough firepower to hang with Carolina’s athletes on the interior. With or without Marshall, roll with North Carolina in this one.

The RTC Certified Pick: North Carolina

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SEC NCAA Tournament Primer: South Region

Posted by EMoyer on March 22nd, 2012

On Friday night, Kentucky will play in its 23rd Sweet Sixteen, facing rival Indiana . Here we preview the game between the Wildcats and Hoosiers as well as the possibilities for the Wildcats in the Elite Eight.

SEC NCAA Tournament Regional Semifinal Capsule

South Region 

  • #1 Kentucky: Championship Appearances: 52; Record 109-47; Best Finish: Champion – 1948, 1949, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1996, 1998; How Qualified: At-Large, SEC; Last Appearance: 2011 – L, National Semifinal
  • #4 Indiana: Championship Appearances: 36; Record 62-30; Best Finish: Champion – 1940, 1953, 1976, 1981, 1987; How Qualified: At-Large, Big Ten; Last Appearance: 2011 – L, First Round
  • #3 Baylor: Championship Appearances: 7; Record 8-8; Best Finish: Runner Up  – 1948; How Qualified: At Large, Big 12; Last Appearance: 2010 – L, Elite 8
  • #10 Xavier: Championship Appearances: 23; Record 21-22; Best Finish: Elite 8 – 2004, 2008; How Qualified: At Large, Atlantic 10; Last Appearance: 2011 – L, Sweet 16
All-Time Meetings
  • Kentucky vs Indiana: Kentucky leads 31-24; Last Meeting: Dec. 11, 2011 (Indiana 73, Kentucky 72)
  • Kentucky vs Baylor: Kentucky leads 6-0; Last Meeting: Dec. 8, 1979 (Kentucky 80, Baylor 46)
  • Kentucky vs Xavier: Kentucky leads 37-2; Last Meeting: Nov. 30, 1968 (Kentucky 115, Baylor 68)
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Morning Five: 03.22.12 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 22nd, 2012

  1. This time the courtship did not last long as Shaka Smart announced yesterday that he would not become the next coach at Illinois and would remain the head coach at VCU. While Smart did not rule out moving on to another job we cannot imagine another opening much better than Illinois, which frankly is an overrated position, coming open during the offseason. Now Illinois will have to move onto another candidate. Two of the more interesting candidates we have heard mentioned are Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton and Duke assistant Chris Collins.
  2. If you watched Iowa State‘s brief NCAA Tournament appearance, Royce White‘s announcement that he will be entering the NBA Draft and hiring an agent should not be a surprise. Despite dealing with well-chronicled psychiatric problems, White emerged as a potential lottery pick who more than stood his own against four likely top ten picks in the first two rounds. We assume that with the millions invested in White by a NBA team they will also spend the requisite money to ensure that he continues to get the medical attention that he needs.
  3. The exodus may have started in Storrs where Alex Oriakhi announced yesterday that he will be transferring from Connecticut. Oriakhi, who struggled through much of the season after seeing his playing time cut drastically with the late arrival of Andre Drummond, had voiced his displeasure with how things were handled in Storrs earlier in the season. Now he will be looking for a new place to complete his college career. Oriakhi, who has one year of eligibility remaining, could be available to play next year if Connecticut’s NCAA Tournament ban is upheld, but would have to sit out a year if they are eligible to participate.
  4. After a brief hiatus while preparing for the opening week of the NCAA Tournament, Luke Winn is back with his weekly power rankings. As you might expect Winn’s analysis is more focused for the Sweet Sixteen with a look at how they match up with their opponent. The one figure that might be the most noteworthy is his analysis of fouls against Cody Zeller and Anthony Davis, which is particularly relevant because Indiana‘s 74-73 win is one of the few games this year where Davis was in foul trouble.
  5. According to reports Villanova junior Maalik Wayns will sign with an agent. When Wayns declared last week without signing with an agent we barely paid attention because we assumed that Wayns would learn that he was by no means guaranteed a spot on a NBA roster. While we cannot comment fully on the situation because we do not know if Wayns has an urgent financial/family reason for turning pro, but if he does not then all we can say is that it is a really bad decision.
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NCAA Tournament Tidbits 03.18.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 18th, 2012

The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

West Region

South Region

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Tournament Thoughts From Third Round B1G Action

Posted by Deepak Jayanti on March 18th, 2012

Did somebody mention a potential letdown? Michigan‘s loss to Ohio on Friday night may have sent some signals across the tournament that the rest of the B1G teams may be vulnerable, but Saturday turned out to be great for the historical conference. Three Big Ten teams flexed their muscle to prove to the nation that they might not always be flashy in their winning ways, but they are definitely the toughest, both mentally and physically. Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio State faced adversity during their games, but they showed great composure to pull out with a huge wins as they advance to the Sweet 16. The following are a few thoughts from Saturday’s action.

Jared Sullinger and Ohio State earned their win against Gonzaga on Saturday.

Ohio State over Gonzaga (73-66)

Mark Few had the frontline to challenge Ohio State. Robert Sacre and Elias Harris have the physical tools to hang with Jared Sullinger and they certainly did that during the first half of the game. Gonzaga owned the glass during the first 20 minutes which resulted in a 52.9% offensive rebounding rate. Matta’s crew did a great job of hitting the boards in the second half which led to a bruising win. Sullinger scored on two key possessions during the final minutes from the post, and that’s exactly what Matta expects from his star player in the clutch. Aaron Craft and William Buford were committed to feeding the post.  When Ohio State is patient with their shots from beyond the arc and go through Sullinger consistently, they are a handful for rest of the teams in the tournament. The guards need to be persistent including Deshaun Thomas.  If Sullinger doesn’t get a good position the first time, the ball needs to come back out and Craft needs to find him again until he gets a good position in the post. Sullinger ended up with 18 points for the game and he earned every one of them. Aaron Craft was able to control the tempo during the second half by locking down Gonzaga’s Kevin Pangos. Craft assisted or scored on 44 of the 73 points during the game but as usual, his defense was a more important key to the victory. Pangos was stifled on the perimeter as he missed six out of the eight three-point attempts. Craft’s defense limited him to 3-13 from the field and just ten points. Thad Matta‘s Buckeyes took a few jabs throughout the game and punched back to make the Sweet 16.

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Four Tournament Thoughts: Ohio State and Indiana Advance

Posted by jnowak on March 16th, 2012

#2 seed Ohio State and #4 seed Indiana were part of the evening contingency of teams taking the floor to finish the first full night of NCAA Tournament action on Thursday, with both teams advancing to the third round of play on Saturday. Here are some thoughts from the pair of victories:

Jordan Hulls and the Hoosiers are back in the Big Dance, and took down New Mexico State on Thursday (Getty Images)

  1. Ohio State is back on track — The mark of a great team can be found in how it recovers from adversity, and the Buckeyes have never had any trouble bouncing back from a tough loss. After falling to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament championship game on Sunday, the Buckeyes rebounded to handle Loyola on Thursday night. Ohio State may have fallen in Indianapolis this past weekend, but they’re playing tough, focused basketball.
  2. Indiana is also back on track, but after a longer hiatus — It’s been a long time coming — four years, to be exact, though it probably feels like more for Indiana fans — since the Hoosiers were dancing, but they’re back and they are doing damage. It took no time at all for Tom Crean‘s group to kick the dust off and take care of business, controlling the entire 40 minutes against New Mexico State. Cody Zeller didn’t show any nerves under the bright lights — though foul trouble can still be an issue for him — and if this team can continue to excel on both ends of the floor, we could be in for an intriguing rematch against Kentucky.
  3. Deshaun Thomas is the straw that stirs the drink — We all know what you’re going to get out of All-American Jared Sullinger on any given night, but the X-factor presence that Thomas brings to the table is Ohio State’s difference maker. When the Buckeyes have two guys of that size and skill performing at such a high level, there may be no one in the country who can stop them. Thomas had a game-high 31 points against Loyola on Thursday, and now has put up double digits in 10 straight games. Some of his worst games this year (five points at Indiana, a combined 19 in the two losses to Michigan State) have come in defeat, emphasizing his importance.
  4. The Big Ten is perfect so far — Each of the three Big Ten teams in action on Thursday won, and they won big. The best conference in the country flexed its muscles with Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio State winning their respective games by an average margin of 19 points per game. No other conference had as many teams in action and also went undefeated on the day.
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