Throughout Tuesday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (10:00 AM), South (11:00 AM), Midwest (1:00 PM), West (2:00 PM). Here, Tommy Lemoine (@hoopthink) breaks down the East Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC East Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCeastregion).

East Region

Favorite: #1 Villanova (32-2, 16-2 Big East). For as good as Virginia has been this season, Villanova enters the NCAA Tournament as hot and seemingly infallible as any team outside of Kentucky. The Big East champion Wildcats are currently riding a 15-game winning streak, including 11 victories by double-figures and two drubbings – an 89-61 win over Providence and 105-68 beat-down of St. John’s – against current Tournament participants. They boast the fourth-most efficient offense in the country thanks to a balanced lineup that sees six different players average between nine and 14 points per game, and have a true inside presence and rim protector in 6’11” big man Daniel Ochefu (9.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG). And even though Jay Wright’s team relies heavily on perimeter shooting, it happens to be one of the best three-point shooting teams in America at 38.9 percent. To boot, Villanova’s defense holds opponents to well under one point per possession.

Darrun Hilliard and the Wildcats are the team to beat in the East. (AP)

Should They Falter: #2 Virginia (30-3, 16-2 ACC). Virginia could have been a #1 seed and very well might play like one if Justin Anderson (12.3 PPG) rounds into form over the coming days and weeks. Since the 6’6″ wing went down with a broken hand in February, the Cavaliers’ offense has sorely missed his outside shooting (46.9% 3FG) and ability to get to the rim. The junior returned (in a limited capacity) for the ACC Tournament, however, and could be in better basketball shape by this weekend. Either way, the regular season ACC champs should be fine in the early-going, since their defense is borderline impenetrable. No team in the country – not even Kentucky – touts better adjusted defensive efficiency numbers than Tony Bennett’s guys, a product of his pack-line system which thrives on eliminating access to the paint and forcing tough shots from perimeter. Outside of Villanova, it’s hard to envision many teams in the East mustering enough offensive production to topple the Wahoos – especially if Anderson again finds his footing. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s finish off the Bracket Prep series with our reviews of each of the weekend mid-major automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket. Here’s a primer on each of the most recent bid winners. The entire series can be found here.

New Mexico State

New Mexico State is going dancing for the fourth-straight year. (Photo by Tim Barnett-Queen)

• WAC Champion (23-10, 13-1)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #103/#88/#106
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +6.5
• NCAA Seed: #15

Strength: The Aggies are not your average low-seeded mid-major. They have great size – 32nd nationally in effective height – and good athleticism that should allow them to match up with Kansas, at least physically. With four regular contributors standing between 6’8” and 6’10” and an athletic point guard to boot, New Mexico State likes to attack the paint and pound the offensive glass (ninth-best offensive rebounding rate in college hoops). The vast majority of its points come near the basket or at the free throw line, while big men Pascal Siakam (7.7 RPG) and Tshilidzi Nephawe (7.6 RPG) rank among the top 75 offensive rebounders in the country. Defensively, they often apply pressure – both in the full-court and half-court – and do an excellent job of limiting three-point looks; opponents shoot just 29.5 percent from behind the arc, the seventh-best mark in America.

Weakness: New Mexico State was the most-turnover prone team in the WAC and among the worst in the entire country, ranking 326th in offensive turnover rate. Lowly Chicago State (8-24) – whose one strong-suit is causing turnovers – forced the Aggies to cough it up 43 times over the course of two near-upsets during conference play.

Key player: Daniel Mullings (12.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG). The Canadian guard missed 12 games in the middle of the season, and since he’s returned New Mexico State has not lost – 13 straight wins to end the season. Mullings’ athleticism enables him to get into the lane and draw fouls (6.3 fouls drawn per 40 minutes), and there are few perimeter defenders as quick-handed as the senior; his steal rate ranks 11th-best in the country.

Outlook: The #13-seeded Aggies took San Diego State to overtime in the round of 64 last season, and despite getting a #15 seed this time around, they could cause trouble for the Jayhawks. If they can take care of the ball, the WAC champs’ size and length should allow them to match up physically and hang around with their higher-seeded foe.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s finish off the Bracket Prep series with our reviews of each of the weekend mid-major automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket. Here’s a primer on each of the most recent bid winners. The entire series can be found here.

Buffalo

Buffalo is going dancing for the first time in school history. (Ken Blaze, Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)

• MAC Champion (23-9, 12-6)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #28/#54/#59
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +8.4
• NCAA Seed: #12

Strength: Buffalo has some serious offensive weapons and tends to set them free. The Bulls were the most uptempo offense in the MAC this season, using just 17.4 seconds per possession and attacking the basket at every turn; 76 percent of their points came from inside the arc or at the free throw line. Part of that emphasis can be attributed to the presence of Justin Moss (17.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG), the 6’7” forward who won MAC Player of the Year. His ability to both run the floor and dominate on the low-block – along with a stable of talented, attacking guards like Shannon Evans (15.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Lamonte Bearden (8.2 PPG) – makes Bobby Hurley’s group tough to stop on that end of the court. The MAC champs are pretty solid on the other end, too, holding opponents to under a point per possession on the season. Keep an eye on Moss, though – the junior was limited during the league tournament because of an ankle injury.

Weakness: Outside of its so-so perimeter shooting (34% 3FG), Buffalo does not have too many glaring weaknesses – at least not by the numbers. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns. There was a three-game stretch during February in which the Bulls were bludgeoned on the defensive end, including a home loss to Toledo where the Rockets shot 86 percent from behind the arc and scored 1.3 points per possession. And for a team that shoots a healthy 72.2 percent from the stripe, Buffalo’s late-game free throw shooting in both MAC Tournament victories over the weekend was not very good. Whether these inconsistencies have to do with their youthful backcourt, lulls in energy, or something else, I’m not sure. But they can’t afford similar lapses this week.

Key player: Xavier Ford (9.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG). Moss is absolutely crucial and his health should be closely monitored as the week progresses, but assuming he’s good to go, another guy to keep your eye on is Ford. The 6’7” senior’s length and athleticism gives Hurley an added dimension on the offensive end – a slasher able to get to the rim (and rebound effectively) – as well as a defender who can guard the type of athletic scorers his team will probably see next week.

Outlook: Buffalo led both Kentucky and Wisconsin at halftime this season, which says a thing or two about its overall ability. As long as Moss is healthy and able to go, the Bulls are more than capable of keeping pace with West Virginia, especially considering their #12 seed line. Hurley’s bunch is talented, fiery and could end up playing on the back-half of the weekend.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s finish off the Bracket Prep series with our reviews of each of the weekend mid-major automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket. Here’s a primer on each of the most recent bid winners. The entire series can be found here.

Texas Southern

Texas Southern is going dancing for the second-straight year. (hbcubuzz.com)

• SWAC Champion (22-12, 16-2)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #130/#207/#204
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = -2.1
• NCAA Seed: #15

Strength: You don’t often see SWAC teams with as much talent as Texas Southern, especially in the backcourt. Conference Player of the Year Madarious Gibbs (14.2 PPG, 4.3 APG), Marshall transfer Chris Thomas (12.6 PPG) and former Nebraska guard Deverell Biggs (11.5 PPG) are each capable scorers who can attack the basket and earn trips to the free throw line. Same goes for forward and JuCo transfer Malcolm Riley, who averaged more than 20.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per game in the SWAC Tournament. Only 11 teams in college basketball get to the stripe at a higher rate than the Tigers, which is important, since they don’t shoot the ball particularly well from the perimeter (32.2% 3FG). They feature good balance, with several different players who can create offense, and it showed in the team’s upset victories over Michigan State and Kansas State back in December.

Weakness: Texas Southern lacks size and depth on the interior. Long Beach State transplant Nick Shepard is a good shot-blocker (10.1% Blk rate), but as a unit the Tigers rank 278th nationally in effective height and opponents score 58 percent of all their points from inside the arc. Imposing teams like Gonzaga, Baylor and Florida – similar in size to Arizona, which they face this week – crushed them in the paint during non-conference play. Likewise, Mike Davis’ crew struggles to clean up misses; the Bears ripped down 22 offensive rebounds against the SWAC champs on December 1.

Player to watch: Chris Thomas (12.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Thomas is a former five-star recruit who has the size and athleticism to compete against top-notch competition. The junior combined for 37 points in Texas Southern’s victories over the Spartans and Wildcats, the type of high-level, efficient play (57% FG) he will need to duplicate in the NCAA Tournament.

Outlook: Texas Southern has proven its ability to hang with high-major competition, but, unfortunately as a #15 seed, Arizona is far better than the Michigan States and Kansas States of the world. The Tigers should have their moments, and Mike Davis (former Indiana head man) knows what he’s doing in March, but an upset seems unlikely. Still, back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances is nothing to sneeze at.

Read the rest of this entry »

And here we are with Volume XV of the Circle of March, two weeks and a day after we started this whole shebang with 333 hopefuls. We’re now down to a tidy 68, and over the course of the next 21 days we’ll narrow that group down to the last one standing. The remaining group of bubble teams and a couple auto-qualifier candidates fell off yesterday afternoon, but from here on out, it’s win or go home. Welcome to March Madness.

Eliminations (03.15.15)

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It’s time to play RTC 2015 Bracket Nonsense, and we’re pleased to announce that we’re going to have some neat prizes in the game this year.

Last year we gave away some Louisville gear related to the 1986 Final Four that the Cardinals won in Dallas. The year before that we traveled to Atlanta with some memorabilia celebrating the 1977 and 2007 Final Fours that took place in the Peach State. Before that, we went on the Road to New Orleans with a Pistol Pete Maravich jersey as our grand prize. Even before then, we went to Houston with a Clyde the Glide Cougars jersey. You get the point. We love our nostalgia and celebration of the game through retro gear. This year, we’re on the same track. Here’s what you need to know:

• Group Name: RTC 2015 Bracket Nonsense
• Group#: 67188

We’ll have three different prize levels this year — one for each weekend — and we think that you’ll like them.

Prizes For Each Weekend of Bracket Nonsense

• First Weekend Prize: The player who gets the most Bracket Nonsense points during the Second and Third Rounds will win a retro version of a Hickory High School #23 jersey from the movie Hoosiers (pictured above, far left).
• Second Weekend Prize: The player who picks the most correct games during the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight rounds (using the second weekend results only) will win a vintage 1980 Indianapolis Final Four t-shirt (pictured above, center). This celebrates the first time the Final Four was played in Indy some 35 years ago at the old Market Square Arena, when Louisville defeated UCLA for its first-ever national title.
• Grand Prize. The player who wins RTC 2015 Bracket Nonsense with the most total points after the Championship Game will win an autographed Bob Knight 32-0 “Still Undefeated” basketball (pictured above, far right) (note that this ball was provided by Steiner Sports — take a look at the rest of their basketball memorabilia here). This ball is particularly interesting this season given that Kentucky is chasing Knight’s 1976 National Championship Indian team to become the first unbeaten team in nearly four decades of college basketball. This is a fantastic piece of memorabilia that any college basketball fan would love to have in his collection.

There you have it. Some great prizes are on the line this year, and you can win something in each of the next three weeks. Don’t forget to sign up before Noon ET on Thursday! Happy March Madness!

Printable JPG version of the NCAA Tournament bracket below (a printable PDF is located here):

What’s Trending is a column examining the week that was in college basketball social media. Griffin Wong (@griffwong90) is your weekly host.

The Curious Case of Murray State

Murray State, a team beloved by many mid-major apologists, went down in heartbreaking fashion to Belmont last weekend, and will discover its ultimate fate tonight. The consensus seems to be that the Racers had a great year but their résumé just isn’t quite up to snuff. That said, crazier things have happened (I’m looking at you, 2006 Air Force).

Also, the notion of Murray State as the little guy ignores their status as the really, really big guy in the OVC.

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 12, 2015

The system is working against Murray State, which is evidence that the system is flawed. Column: http://t.co/aov8fqsn2l

— Gary Parrish (@GaryParrishCBS) March 11, 2015

I'm not anti Murray State getting in, but I'm not going to sob for a team w a 242 SoS and a loss to Xavier by 27.

— Joseph Nardone (@JosephNardone) March 15, 2015

More Marshall Henderson?

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As we reach the pinnacle of Championship Week over the next few days, we’ll take a breath each morning to run down the top five storylines from the previous day’s action. With the Selection Show now hours away, here are the headline makers from Saturday’s games.

1. Notre Dame Stuns North Carolina

Notre Dame Notched Its First Conference Tournament Championship Ever (USA Today Images)

Halfway through the second half of yesterday’s ACC championship game, I was all prepared to rave about the boys in baby blue. North Carolina came out of the gates fast in the second half and looked to be on its way to another ACC Tournament championship. At the same time I was legitimately thinking about the Tar Heels as a possible Final Four team. They’d already knocked off Louisville and Virginia on consecutive nights and had been impressive in doing so. But then Notre Dame happened. The Tar Heels didn’t necessarily fall flat, but when the Irish’s 26-3 run came it was as if the two teams were playing a different game. With its many talented shooters and ball-handlers, Notre Dame presented the Tar Heels with matchup problems that it eventually exploited. Their ball movement was exceptional. Carolina, of course, will be just fine and is still a candidate for a deep NCAA Tourney run, but Notre Dame’s ACC crown this weekend was a real head-turner. When the Irish are running hot, they can beat anybody in the country — they may also have elevated themselves to a #2 seed with their play over the last three days.

2. Iowa State Does it Again

Down 14 at halftime, Iowa State had Kansas… um, right where it wanted the Jayhawks? Apparently. The Cyclones have made a strange habit of staging colossal second-half comebacks this season. In their previous four games, they had rallied from deficits of 11, 16, 10 and 21 points to win all four. So when Kansas took a 17-point lead early in the second half, the Cyclones didn’t panic. Fred Hoiberg’s bunch simply decided it was their time to push forward. Jameel McKay and Georges Niang led a seemingly inevitable 17-2 run that got Iowa State right back in the game, and although the Jayhawks went down swinging, the Cyclones eventually pulled through. Fred Hoiberg’s team has so many weapons that it will be a unique and extremely tricky challenge for anybody for the rest of March.

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Championship Saturday is in the books, as 15 more teams punched their tickets to the Big Dance and many of the rest were left wondering what’s in store of them on Selection Sunday. That’s today, remember! Because we were so deep into conference tournaments on Saturday, eliminations were more sparse. Only 12 teams dropped off the Circle of March, leaving 83 hopefuls heading into the last set of championship games later today. The important thing to remember is that at this time tomorrow we’ll be left with a nice, tidy 68. Enjoy one of the neatest days of the entire year!

Eliminations (03.14.15)

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As we move through Championship Weekend, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners.

Albany

Sam Rowley and the Great Danes are going dancing for the third-straight year. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

America East Champion (24-8, 15-1)

• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #108/#132/#134
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +3.1
• Likely NCAA Seed: #14 or #15

Strength: Albany led the America East in both adjusted offensive efficiency (110.2 AdjO) and time taken per offensive possession; which is to say, the Great Danes are slow but effective. They are a solid shooting team from all areas of the floor (36.5% 3FG/48.4% 2FG/76% FT) and do a decent job on the offensive glass, thanks in large part to brothers Sam and Michael Rowley (combined 12.0 RPG). Fellow Australian Peter Hooley (13.8 PPG) – who hit the clutch shot on Saturday – is back to being one of the team’s top offensive weapons after missing several games during conference play to be with his sick mother.

Weakness: The Great Danes often play some zone and like to pack in their defense, which helps them clean up misses (12th-best defensive rebounding rate in college hoops) but precludes them from taking away the three-point line; opponents are shooting nearly 37 percent from three against Albany and scoring around 38 percent of their points from behind the arc. Will Brown’s group surrendered 13 triples against Holy Cross in a 17-point loss back in December and could be overwhelmed by a good outside-shooting team next week.

Key Player: Sam Rowley (14 PPG, 7.7 RPG). The Aussie big man leads Albany in scoring and rebounding, but even that doesn’t quite illustrate his importance. Rowley uses over one quarter of his team’s possessions while on the floor (which is 82 percent of the time), either going to work down low, knocking down mid-range jumpers or passing out of the post. His ability to locate open shooters might be especially important against larger opponents that prevent interior scoring.

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