Next Up:  Pac-10 Tournament.  The best conference in America this year should provide us with more entertainment this weekend, as there are arguably nine teams who have enough talent to make a run and win this thing.  One question – why is it in the Staples Center every year?  Memo to the Pac-10 commisioners: there are other NBA arenas in Phoenix, Oakland, Portland and Seattle that would also make great venues for this event. 

Where:  Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
When:  Wednesday-Saturday

The Favorite(s).  Vegas Watch doesn’t have the Pac-10 odds up yet, but UCLA is sitting on a 94% chance at a #1 seed in the NCAAs, and they’re playing about ten miles from campus, so we’re going to go ahead and anoint them the easy favorite here.  There is some evidence that Ben Howland teams don’t take this tournament seriously, though, with three first-game losses in his four years at UCLA (although the Bruins did win the Pac-10 Tourney in 2006). 

The Darkhorse.  Take your pick.  The #9 seed, Cal, just played within a blown call and a circus shot of beating UCLA at Pauley last week.  The #7 seed, Arizona, took Kansas to overtime at Lawrence.  The #4 seed, USC, starts two potential lottery picks.  We could go on, but you get the point.  The Pac-10 is loaded, and anybody but the hapless Oregon St. Beavers could make a run at this title. 

Bubble Buster Game.  Arizona v. Stanford in round two.  Arizona has a tremendous computer profile with the #2 strength of schedule in the nation and a #29 RPI according to KenPom, but that 17-13 (8-10) record leaves a lot to be desired.  They’ll beat OSU tonight, but they really need to beat Stanford tomorrow to get to .500 in conference and add one more quality win to their resume.   If the Cardinal mails it in like they did last weekend at USC, Arizona should have a very good chance to win that game.  Oregon (#54 RPI) could also stand to beat Wazzu, but they’re terrible away from home this year, so we don’t expect that to happen.

Cinderella.  USC.  The Trojans have been playing a lot better lately, and if UCLA dumps the first game again, they should have a relatively easy path to the finals on Saturday.  Even if UCLA doesn’t dump that game, they’ve already defeated the Bruins once and played them very tough in another game.  Also, playing in familiar environs doesn’t hurt. 

Games We Want to See.   Basically, all of them.  No other league has as much individual talent or intriguing contrasts in style of play as the Pac-10, so this should be a great tournament.  If it comes down to it, though, we’re hoping for a third matchup between the two LA schools, followed by Stanford getting another shot against the Bruins on Saturday. 

Champion.  We’re not sure Stanford will ever recover from their collapse and screwing in Westwood last week, nor do we have enough faith that the Bruins will put their best foot forward in this event.  Wazzu and ASU are good choices to fill the void, but we really like the way USC has been playing in recent weeks, and we think maybe they’ll put it all together this weekend to make a nice run (only to get overconfident and drop their first round game next week, of course).  So our champion is USC.    

Next Up:  Big 12 Tournament.  So… last year, with Kevin Durant, Texas finished third in the Big 12, while this year the Longhorns finished first.  Dunno about you guys, but we’re hoping for a rematch of last year’s final game, which Kansas won in overtime 88-84. 

Where:  Sprint Center, Kansas City, KS
When:  Thursday – Sunday

The Favorite(s).  Texas and Kansas are the co-favs (both finished 13-3), although Vegas Watch will have the odds for us soon as to who is the actual favorite.  In the unbalanced schedule of the Big 12, we were only treated with one matchup between these two teams, as the Horns handled the Jayhawks 72-69 in Austin.  You almost never know for certain who will show up in the Big 12 this year, but we’d say that the odds are favorable for both teams to meet on Sunday afternoon again.       

The Darkhorse.  Oklahoma has won six of its last eight and shown some guts in winning on the road against its rival without Blake Griffin.   If Texas should falter, we wouldn’t be surprised to see OU in the finals against Kansas.

Bubble Buster Game.  A second round matchup between Texas A&M and Kansas St. could make things interesting for the committee.  A&M is #47 and Kansas St. is #45 in KenPom’s RPI ratings, and neither team has really lit it up in the last few weeks (K-State 3-5; A&M 2-5).  Would the committee really leave out Michael Beasley and the #3 seed in the Big 12?  Probably not, but we wouldn’t want to give them a reason to put TAMU over them, if we were a K-State fan.      

Cinderella.  Baylor.  But for one home egg laid by the Bears, Baylor finished strong down the stretch, and the route to the finals is more favorable through Oklahoma and Texas.  Baylor was 0-4 against these teams in the regular season, but every game was close, and it’s very difficult to defeat a good team three times in one season.

Games We Want to See.   Part 3 of Kansas-Kansas St. would be fun in the semis, as well as Part 2 of Kansas-Texas.  Basically, the teams that don’t suck. 

Champion.  Kansas is coming off of two straight Big 12 Tourney titles, and they’re playing in their own backyard.  When KU brings it, there are only a couple of teams in American who can hang with them, and they usually bring it in this tournament.  So we’re going with the easy choice here – Kansas.   

Next Up:  Big Ten Tournament.  Who can predict this tournament?  Every team has a flaw or three.  Of the top four seeds, Wisconsin runs a program system, MSU can’t win away from E. Lansing, Indiana is on the brink of implosion and Purdue plays a bunch of freshmen.  If we’re feeling sleepy next weekend, we’ll just turn over to one of these games for a certain sedative. 

Where:  Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
When:  Thursday – Sunday

The Favorite(s).  Wisconsin is the favorite because the Badgers went 16-2 and proved itself very proficient at beating other Big Ten teams.  The one team it couldn’t defeat in two attempts?  Purdue.  Guess who should be waiting on UW in the finals, assuming it can get past the MSU/OSU winner?  That’s right, Purdue.   

The Darkhorse.  Indiana.  Huge IF here.  Indiana is the darkhorse candidate, playing in a Hoosier-friendly environment, IF they can get over the funk they’ve been lost in since Dan Dakich took over as head coach.   Losing at Penn St. and getting obliterated by Michigan St. on consecutive weekends doesn’t portend well, but their talent cannot be denied. 

Bubble Buster Game.  Ohio St. is the only bubble team in the league this year, so they could use another win against Michigan St. on Friday.  Thad Matta has traditionally been a good tournament coach, and MSU simply cannot win games outside of Michigan, so we expect OSU to get this one.   

Cinderella.  Tough to say here, but how about Tubby’s Minnesota Gophers?  They get the easiest first round game, followed by a second round game with Team Turmoil.  A green Purdue team would stand in the way for a trip to the finals.  We’re not saying this will happen, but this is the best possibility.  It’s not our fault there are only about 2.5 decent teams in this league this year.

Games We Want to See.  Um, is none an acceptable answer?  If they came to pass, we’d watch an Indiana-Purdue rematch as well as a Michigan St. final against either of those teams.  We probably wouldn’t look forward to it, though.  And anything involving Wisconsin…  well, let’s just say that’s what Tivo is for. 

Champion.  We envision Wisconsin v. Purdue in the finals on Sunday, and we know that the Badgers can’t seem to get past the Boilermakers, so we like Purdue to cut down the nets with Robbie Hummels as the MVP. 

We’re less than a week away from Selection Sunday, and already five teams have earned automatic bids to the NCAAs.  Congrats to Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South), Cornell (Ivy), Drake (Missouri Valley) and Austin Peay (OVC) for securing bids over the weekend.  Belmont (2006 and 2007), Winthrop (1999-2002 and 2005-2007) and Austin Peay (1996 and 2003) are old hands at March Madness, but some special love should go to Cornell and Drake, as Cornell hasn’t been to the Dance since 1988 and Drake since 1971!

Every year we always have trouble finding brackets for each of the major conference tournaments, so we decided to provide them for ease of use this time around.  Over the next couple days, we’re going to do a quick analysis of each conference tournament, starting today with the Big East.   

Where:  Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
When:  Wednesday – Saturday

The Favorite(s).  We don’t see much of a difference between regular season champion Georgetown and runner-up Louisville.  Both of their regular season games were low-scoring affairs marked by grinding defense and big plays down the stretch.  If it comes down to a rematch, we like Louisville’s experience prevailing in the neutral court environment. 

The Darkhorse.  UConn.  It’s difficult to ever think of Connecticut as a darkhorse in this tournament, but so long as the Huskies avoid playing Providence again (PC would have to upset WVU to reach UConn on Thursday), they are in prime position to make a run at Jim Calhoun’s seventh BE Tournament title.  They have the size to counter Georgetown in the semis, and UConn always enjoys a quasi-home crowd environment at the Garden. 

Bubble Buster Game.  The first game of the tournament is also the most important game for the NCAA Selection Committee.  Syracuse and Villanova have almost identical profiles – it would be hard for us to believe that the loser of this game will be chosen over the winner on Sunday afternoon. 

Cinderella.  With that in mind, we know that Syracuse loves to make runs in this tournament.  They have a great following in NYC, and have very recently handled both Villanova and Georgetown, the two teams they will see in the first two rounds.  Paging the ghost of Gerry McNamara…

Games We Want to See.  The Big East is the strongest conference in America at the top, and therefore we’d love to see a strong semifinal group of Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut and Notre Dame (or Marquette) on Friday night, followed by GU-UL part 3 for the title.  All of these teams are Sweet 16 teams or better, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see two of them in the F4 this year.  The quality of basketball should be better than any other conference at that level. 

Champion.  On Saturday night, whoever comes out of this group of teams will have definitely proven itself.  We like Rick Pitino’s Louisville team.  Since David Padgett returned to the lineup, the Cards have gone 15-4, including a strong 9-1 stretch run that included only the narrow road loss at Georgetown this past weekend.  Surprisingly, Pitino is only 3-4 with no titles in the BE Tourney in two stints at Providence and Louisville.  We think that this is the year he improves on that record.

Those Left Home.  Depaul, St. John’s, South Florida, Rutgers.  How embarrassing is it that St. John’s cannot even make the Big East Tourney, played ostensibly on its home floor at MSG?

Congrats to the Cornell Chewing Gum for becoming the first team with an automatic bid to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, and in so doing, breaking the Penn/Princeton stranglehold on the Ivy title for the first time in a generation (20 yrs).

Photo Credit:  The Cornell Basketball Blog 

Well, if you didn’t see last night’s Vandy win 72-69 over newly-minted #1 Tennessee coming, then you probably didn’t know that #1 teams simply don’t make it out of the strange and unusual venue known as Memorial Gymnasium alive.  Vandy is now 6-3 all-time against #1 teams in the gym, and have won the last four, including an equally impressive 83-70 win last year over then #1 and defending national champion Florida. 

Another #1 Goes Down at Vandy

But for some reason, last night’s win just seemed more impressive.  Maybe it was because Vandy fans clutch a particular ire for their neighbors in puke orange.  Maybe it was because we had just witnessed the Vols do likewise to #1 Memphis three nights earlier.  Or maybe it was simply that we got wrapped up in the Memorial Magic like so many teams before, as the arena rocked and rolled for most of the night (no country for old men in Nashville last night).  In any case, it was yet another impressive victory for Vandy at home, and one sure to propel them into the national top ten.  Shan Foster made his case for SEC POY over rival Chris Lofton (25 pts on 7-18 shooting) by dropping 32 huge points on 9-13 shooting.   

Why RTC When You Always Beat #1?

As for Tennessee, to come out of these two close road tests 1-1 is probably considered a victory for Bruce Pearl.  The Vols have been more impressive than its teams of recent vintage in the sense that they are less perimeter-happy than they once were, thanks to Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism inside.  Still, their toughness with the bullseye directly on their backs leaves questions for national prospects in March.  As an underdog, Pearl’s teams excel – it’s only when great things are expected (see: Sweet 16 second half game against Ohio St. last year) do the Vols tend to become gunshy.   This is worth keeping an eye on during the next few weeks, as Pearl will likely use this as motivation for the Vols to keep their underdog status. 

Thing is, Florida used to be the same way, and we saw what happened with the Gators the last two seasons. 

Final thought.  Tennessee essentially held its first #1 ranking ever for about 28 hrs before losing it, which is one of the quickest reigns you’ll ever see.  We remember a newly-minted #1 Florida getting run out of the gym at Kentucky in 2003 after a similar amount of time; and first-time #1 Wake Forest likewise getting destroyed at Illinois in 2004 after a day at the helm.  Maybe there’s something to the idea of uneasy is the head that carries the crown, eh?  ‘

Photo Credits:  Sammy8146 at Flickr.com

Since we just continue to get slammed by work and life in general, we can’t even find time to post new Erin Andrews pics (so a video will have to suffice today)… but here are a few things that we enjoyed from the weekend’s events.

#1 v. #2. This was the only game we got to see this weekend, but it looked a lot like we had expected. Seriously, who didn’t see this one coming after Memphis’ recent struggles? To paraphrase Luke Winn today, Memphis looks like the same team of athletes that they always have – a bunch of guys who can’t run a halfcourt offense or make a clutch foul shot under any circumstances. When John Calipari came onto PTI last week and said that his players traditionally were clutch at making FTs down the stretch, we almost fell off our chair in hysterics, considering the Tigers’ pathetic performance in the last five minutes of the game (1-8) last week at UAB. We still don’t love the Volz come March, but they seem to be a lot tougher mentally than the previous renditions. Major trap game upcoming for UT at Vandy on Tuesday night.

EA v. BP. What coach hasn’t been romantically linked to Erin Andrews at one time or another? After Saturday night’s halftime interview goosing at the hands of Bruce Pearl, we think it’s safe to say that EA isn’t busily canoodling with the Tennessee coach in her spare time. Ok!

Kelvin No More. So there was no player mutiny at IU over the weekend, but there may have been one on campus had the Hoosiers actually dropped their weekend game at Northwestern, currently winless (0-14) in the Big Ten. How will interim coach Dan Dakich handle what are obviously bruised player egos and emotions? The Hoosiers could be looking at a crash-and-burn in a big way here if he can’t get their buy-in very soon.

Other Games. A few other scores caught our eyes this weekend…

• Oklahoma St. 61, Kansas 60. There is absolutely no excuse for KU losing to this OSU team.
• Drake 71, Butler 64. Battle of the mid-majors involved Drake going to Hinkle and showing they’re going to be heard from in March.
• Arizona 65, Washington St. 55. The strange and curious middle of the Pac-10 continues to confound us.
• Miami (FL) 78, Maryland 63. Last week the Canes just made themselves relevant.
• LSU 69, Ole Miss 49. Ok, so Andy Kennedy still had a good year in getting Ole Miss to the NIT.

Only four more days until March, people!!!

We had to come out of our work-induced hibernation for a brief passage on what’s being reported from Indiana today.  This is getting juicier than Lindsay Lohan’s tenderloin on display in New York Magazine. 

Mutiny on the HMS Hoosier

Luke Winn is reporting that the IU players are on the verge of a full-scale mutiny if Kelvin Sampson is fired, as many are expecting his termination today.  If assistant coach Dan Dakich is promoted, Winn writes that the players may walk out on the season in unison.

The source said that in meeting with Hoosiers players on Thursday night, IU athletic director Rick Greenspan informed them of the likelihood that Sampson would no longer be their head coach — either as a result of a termination or suspension Friday.  The players’ response, according to the source? “If Sampson isn’t our coach, we’ll quit.” The source said this was the unified sentiment of the whole team, but was first expressed by the Hoosiers’ senior leadership in a smaller meeting earlier Thursday. Greenspan and the players reached a stalemate in the second meeting, with the athletic director reportedly asking them if “the whole season should just be canceled.”

We’re sure something like this must have happened at some point in college basketball history, but we certainly cannot remember something like this happening at such a high-profile program such as Indiana.  Just thinking back in our lifetime, did the Michigan players in 1989 threaten to walk when Bill Frieder was fired?  Who else?

Right now, though, everything is just speculation and talk.  Players often threaten to transfer and/or cause problems unless a certain coach is fired/promoted/hired, but eventually emotions settle, reality hits home, and the players acquiesce.  Put simply, we would be completely and absolutely shocked if the Indiana players actually followed through on this threat, considering the team they have and the possible March run they could make.

Great visual from the fracas after Memphis astonishingly grasped victory from the jaws of defeat at UAB on Saturday night…

We’re not sure which is funnier – the sign itself or the fact that UAB fans can’t spell the word “Memphis.” 

Helluva game though.  It appeared the Tigers’ unbeaten season was all but finished when UAB took a 77-70 lead with two minutes remaining.  But consecutive threes by Antonio Anderson and CDR combined with defensive stops led to the final play where CDR probably travelled and put Memphis ahead with an and-one basket. 

Why Memphis will not win the national title:  12-22 from the line, including 3-12 down the stretch as Memphis was trying in vain to make its comeback.  In fact, there were were two separate occasions in the last four minutes where Tiger players went to the line and missed BOTH free throw attempts.  Those are unbelievable momentum killers. 

For our money, Memphis appears complacent and flagging.  Is it the CUSA competition?  The pressure to stay unbeaten?  We’re going with Tennessee in the 1/2 matchup next weekend. 

Update:  These Guys did a much better analysis of the above photo than we ever could have.  Bama Bangs…  Bravo!

There’s an old Simpsons episode where Lisa was experimenting with Pavlovian conditioning in an effort to determine who was smarter – Bart or a hamster. Needless to say, Bart continued reaching for the goodies long after the hamster gave up, only to be greeted with a shock every time.

Oh, Bart, er, Kelvin!!

We couldn’t help but remember this episode when we heard the news this morning that, once again, Kelvin Sanctions at Indiana has been up to his old tricks again. It turns out the the NCAA came back with its report involving phone-gate with a slightly different take than the one IU was preaching back in October.

The report sent to the university Friday accuses Sampson of five major violations, including the allegation of providing “false or misleading information” to university officials and NCAA enforcement staff. The school contended in its initial report that all violations were secondary infractions. But the NCAA accused Sampson of failing “to deport himself … with the generally recognized high standard of honesty” and failing to promote an atmosphere of compliance within the men’s basketball program, categorized as major infractions.

Five major violations. This coming from a program that prides itself on its ethical cache in the world of college athletics (no major infractions since 1960). Is Sampson insane? They say the true definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result. Sampson isn’t insane because he does expect the same result every time – that, just like at Oklahoma, that he’ll get away with breaking the rules. He simply doesn’t appear to see anything wrong with what he was doing (ask Roidger Clemens about that one).

It’s probably safe to say that Kelvin Sampson has coached his only two years at Indiana, but will he survive the week, much less until March Madness? Remember last week when we referred to possible reasons for Knight’s resignation from Texas Tech? Hey, it’s possible!

Why Not??

How will this affect IU on the court? Well, if we were gamblers, we’d have taken Wisconsin +4 in Bloomington tonight. It’s a good thing we don’t dally in such losing propositions as that. Just sayin…