Game #35.  We’re back in Maui for a championship game that was perhaps unexpected, but should still be rocking the Lahaina Civic Center off its foundation.

Coming into the 2010 Maui Invitational, it was supposed to be a battle between Spartans and Dogs for the championship of the island tournament.  Well, that’s the beauty of tournament hoopin’ — teams have to play their way into the next round by actually winning games (well, sometimes).  So we’re left here in Lahaina with two somewhat unexpected entrants: Jim Calhoun’s UConn Huskies led by a mercurial guard who has seemingly realized his superb potential; and John Calipari’s too-young-to-know-better Kentucky Wildcats, a group of long, athletic athletes who hustle that have impressed everyone that’s gotten a chance to watch them so far.  Sometimes tournament basketball throws you a loop and you end up with a game you never expected (or perhaps looked like the Consolation Game), but with the two wily veterans on the sideline — a pair that isn’t especially fond of the other — it should be another great afternoon here in the islands as RTC Live will be back courtside.  Join us for what promises to be another fantastic matchup.

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Games #33-#34.  It’s back to the World’s Most Famous Arena for the semifinal round of the Preseason NIT.

Villanova comes into this one at 4-0, although their path has not been as easy as their margins of victory would indicate. Bucknell and Boston U. both gave the Wildcats a fight, all while they are dealing with a suspension to star freshman JayVaughn Pinkston. Villanova’s attack is centered around their backcourt, and while Corey Fisher has yet to really catch fire this season, Maalik Wayns looks like a potential superstar. UCLA will be the first real test for this Villanova team. The Bruins come into this one at 3-0 and a bit under the radar. The front line of Reeves Nelson (19.3 ppg), Tyler Honeycutt, and Joshua Smith is underrated and Lazeric Jones is an upgrade over Jerime Anderson at the point. The question mark is going to be Malcolm Lee. He rolled an ankle against Pepperdine, and his status (as of this writing) is still uncertain.

The nightcap is between Tennessee and VCU. Tennessee is a bit of a question mark this season. They have some talented and versatile players in Tobias Harris, Scotty Hopson, and Cam Tatum. All three are capable scorers with length and athleticism. But Brian Williams still is not in shape at center and the combination of Melvin Goins and Trae Golden has not exactly yielded terrific point guard play. VCU may play in the CAA, but don’t be fooled — this is a very good basketball team. Joey Rodriguez is the best point guard you’ve never seen play (18.3 ppg, 10.3 apg, 2.0 TO’s in three games), Jamie Skeen is a power forward transfer from Wake Forest, Ed Nixon is as good a defender as you will find on the perimeter, and Bradford Burgess and Brandon Rozzell are terrific complementary scorers. I’ll go as far as to say that I think VCU will win tonight.

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Game #32.  RTC Live is back in the Beehive State for another huge intrastate rivalry game.

In the basketball crazy state of Utah every intrastate game is hotly contested. This match up between Utah and Utah State got even juicer when Utah State head coach Stew Morrill dropped the bombshell that they will not be meeting next season because Utah can’t fit the Aggies in their new Pac-12 schedule. This means that a rivalry 102 years old and that has seen 232 games (Utah leads the series 132-90) may not be played again for some time. The Utes head into the Spectrum lead by swing man Will Clyburn, a junior college transfer who is averaging over 20 PPG in his first season with Utah. The Aggies counter with Tai Wesley who despite battling foul trouble all season is still averaging over 16 points a game. Wesley will be challenged to score and stay on the floor by Utah’s size and length on the front line. The Aggies have won six straight in this series in Logan and will be looking to extend that to seven before the series goes into and indeterminate hibernation.

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Kellen Carpenter is an RTC contributor.

It’s been a hard-fought game. Every shot contested, players from both teams diving all over the court for loose balls, the crowd whipped into a frenzy. Bitter rivals, ranked teams, and it all comes down to one buzzer-beating shot. This is a good game. This is why we watch college basketball. Who wins? Who cares? Rhetorical questions can cut two ways, and this one is particularly vicious in matching it’s semantic zig with meaningless zag. On one hand, we gladly affirm the joy-of-the-game sentiment: Close games are their own reward, and if both teams played hard, we can walk away with a zen-like comfort at having seen a beautiful competitive spectacle. That said, there is a colder reading, one that isn’t as much fun, but may be just as important: Close games between evenly-matched teams don’t mean much of anything, it doesn’t tell us anything about how good either team is. No matter what is marked down under the team records, win or lose, the game is basically a tie.

Teams That Win Close Are Nice, But Teams that Dominate Are Better

Maybe you are preparing a protest: pulling out a tough win shows force of will, late-game execution, grit and guts. These are the best wins, you argue, because it shows you that the team knows how to win when it really matters. A team that can win when the going gets tough can win no matter the situation. Well, okay, hypothetical protester, time to drop the biggest open secret that everyone not on television knows: margin matters and, in terms of predicting future success, a win by one means about the same as a loss by one.

This makes sense with a little bit of thought. Basketball games are a long series of events each contingent on probability, and probability is a fickle mistress. Consider our hypothetical one-point game: In the second quarter, the power forward for one of the teams manages to take a barely-contested ten foot jumper and he has a 50% chance of making the shot. Half the time it goes in and half the time it doesn’t, the rest of the game unfolds in the same way and because of that one event, the team either loses or wins. In every other way, the team is just as good or just as bad as we always knew it was. One shot doesn’t actually change that. Did Butler lose the National Championship because they missed the final shot? Maybe, but they also missed eleven other three-pointers over the course of the game. Hitting any one of those would have won the game.

Is this an oversimplification? Yes, but it all speaks to a simple idea: That the difference between a one point win and a one point loss is really almost white noise. The idea isn’t just a philosophical buzz-kill, but rather a philosophical buzz-kill with implications: Winning by a little doesn’t mean much, but totally dismantling an opponent means a lot. If a team wins by twenty points, it means that they are very likely better than that opponent. Instead of just one lucky shot, they had ten lucky shots, and if you have that many lucky shots, then chances you aren’t so much lucky as good. There is meaning in blowouts. This is why just about every serious advanced-statistical ranking system takes into account margin of victory. That said, we don’t need to tear wide open Ken Pomeroy’s magical tempo-free machine to fully understand this principle, and instead, for an illustration we can turn to a different sort of numbers game.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivobut we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Maui lived up to the hype. Kansas City? Not so much. We’ve got two more good ones from paradise today, Thanksgiving Eve. Rankings as per the latest RTC Top 25. All times eastern.

Maui Invitational Third Place Game: #3 Michigan State vs. #15 Washington – 5 pm on ESPN2 (****)

All Walker, All the Time in Maui

How’s a top 15 matchup for a third place game? Courtesy of Connecticut’s upset of Michigan State, that’s what we have. The Spartans were the latest team to fall victim to the Kemba Walker show as the Connecticut point guard put up 30 points yet again on 10-19 shooting. Tom Izzo’s Spartans did not hold their customary edge rebounding wise which cost them and poor games from Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe and Korie Lucious certainly didn’t help the cause, either. Washington lost one of the hardest fought, intense games you’ll ever see this time of year to a Kentucky club that dominated the boards and got to the line enough to win. Former Washington commit Terrence Jones torched the Huskies with 16/17 as he and Brandon Knight (24 points) led Kentucky to the championship game. This figures to be another war but Michigan State must get meaner and more physical if they hope to beat Washington. The Huskies are going to get it up and down quick meaning Michigan State has to hold their ground defensively, be active in the passing lanes and stay in front of the Washington guards. Lorenzo Romar hopes Isaiah Thomas can rebound from a sub-par outing and help prevent a 1-2 finish in Maui. The unbelievable thing is that a top 15 team is going home 1-2 no matter what happens in this game tonight. This is a noon local tip so one or both teams may get off to a sluggish start. If Washington can get better looks and shoot it well, Michigan State will have their hands full. Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Justin Holiday need to be strong in the post against a tough Spartan front line for Washington to get an edge on the glass. We don’t think it’s crazy to think Michigan State will be the top 15 team to leave Maui with two losses on the young season.

NIT Season Tip-Off Semifinal: #6 Villanova vs. UCLA – 9:30 pm on ESPN2 (***)

Villanova has defended much better so far this year, ranking 14^th in defensive efficiency. That’s a big improvement from last season’s 62^nd ranked defense which failed the Wildcats down the stretch and ultimately resulted in a second round exit to St. Mary’s after being pushed to overtime by #15 seed Robert Morris. Offense is not a problem for Villanova but defense will determine how far they can go this year. So far, the early returns look good. Jay Wright loves to get his team out in transition by causing turnovers. Villanova is in the top ten in steal and turnover percentage and ranks 30^th in two point FG%, probably a result of all the layups created through turnovers. One thing the Wildcats have not done, surprisingly, is shoot the trey well. That’ll play right into UCLA’s hands as they rank 8^th in three point defense. There is reason for optimism in Westwood after last year’s disaster as the Pac-10 is weak yet again and Ben Howland’s team has a great chance to finish second and get back to the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins have been led by 6’8 sophomore forward Reeves Nelson (19/10) and Tyler Honeycutt (16/8). These two more athletic players could cause problems for Villanova’s Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou inside tonight. While UCLA can hold their own there, the Wildcats will have a big advantage in the back court. Malcolm Lee is listed as probable for UCLA but will still be hampered by a bum ankle. The Bruins will count on Lazeric Jones to steady the ship and control the basketball against the aggressive Villanova defense. Try as they might, Villanova is too tough for UCLA to handle behind a trio of stud guards. Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns lead the way and Corey Stokes is a big guard who can really shoot it. Villanova simply has too much talent and depth for the thin Bruins, playing with just ten scholarship players. It’s not impossible for UCLA to win but it seems highly unlikely tonight under the bright lights of the big city at Madison Square Garden.

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Top 25 Games

• #2 Ohio State 64, Morehead State 45: “Entering the season, many prognosticators pegged Morehead State as one of the upper echelon mid-majors in the country. The last two games have shown that may be the case. Morehead fell, 61-55, to Florida on Sunday and hung with Ohio State for much of the game Tuesday before being dispatched, 64-45, at Value City Arena.” (Eleven Warriors)
• UConn 70, #3 Michigan State: “Tonight the Huskies beat Michigan St., the No. 2 team in the country. Tomorrow they’ll play either Kentucky or Washington in the championship game of the most prestigious early-season tournament in the country. Next week they’ll be ranked. Life is good in Husky Nation.” (The UConn Blog)
• #8 Purdue 87, Austin Peay 65: “Purdue used their Johnson to slap around Austin Peay, 87-65. JaJuan Johnson, that is. The big man had 21 and 11 while E’Twaun Moore added 17 points as the Boilers moved to 4-0 on the season. Austin Peay hung tough for a half, trailing by eight at the break, but DJ Byrd hit a three on the first possession of the second half to put it into a double-digit lead and Purdue never looked back.” (Boiled Sports)
• #10 Kentucky 74, #15 Washington 67: “Many Washington Huskies fans had been waiting anxiously for a shot at the Kentucky Wildcats in Maui after two former Husky recruits, Terrence Jones and Enes Kanter, famously changed their pledge to the Wildcats. The old saying, ‘Be careful what you wish for,’ comes immediately to mind. Some times, wishes come true, but the desired outcome doesn’t.” (A Sea of Blue)
• #18 Illinois 73, Yale 47: “That was probably one of the least exciting blow outs I have seen in some time. Yale is not a good team, I honestly have no idea how they beat Boston College earlier this year (does BC suck that bad?) Had the Illini faced a better, perhaps more talented mid-major, this could have been a real game.” (Hail to the Orange)
• #23 Gonzaga 66, Marquette 63: “Mark Few’s Bulldogs found another way to keep MU at bay by owning the backboards in the game’s crucial stages. To say that Marquette was destroyed on the glass would be an understatement; Gonzaga ripped down 15 of its 17 offensive rebounds in the second half. That is not a misprint. The Warriors were no match for the Bulldogs’ toughness. All told Gonzaga earned a 42-26 rebounding advantage and a startling 17-6 advantage on the offensive glass including the 15 they claimed in the second half alone. Despite the beat down in the paint Marquette closed the gap to just two points late in the game but failed to launch a quality shot as time expired.” (Cracked Sidewalks or The Slipper Still Fits or Anonymous Eagle)

Other Games of Interest

• Maryland 72, Delaware State 54: “One shooting problem: solved. I think. Terps’ FT shooting: 14-17. Jordan Williams’: 4-6. That’s good.” (Testudo Times)
• Indiana 72, North Carolina Central 56: “Now 5-0, this team is starting to exude a little confidence — something we’ve yet to see in the Tom Crean era. If they keep up this kind of play during the non-conference slate, such confidence will continue to grow and should suit them well by the time Big 10 play rolls around.” (Inside the Hall)

News/Analysis

• Malcolm Lee Probable Against Villanova: UCLA is hoping to have their junior guard available for their game against Villanova tonight. (Bruins Nation)
• Syracuse Basketball: Opinions Vary: “Normally, we’d look at the AP Basketball Poll, see Syracuse is ranked No. 9 and be done with it. But this season has been such a strange one and the Orange are such a weird kind of 4-0 that we need to dig deeper to find out what everyone is thinking. And what everyone is thinking is…something different.” (Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician)
• Rodney Purvis wraps up visit to Louisville: “Rodney Purvis, the 2012 prospect who Jerry Meyer calls ‘one of the best scoring guards I’ve scouted in the eight years I’ve been doing this,’ just wrapped up his Louisville visit and told Jody Demling that it was ‘wonderful.'” (Card Chronicle)

1. Did you hear that there was an earthquake at the Maui Invitational last night?  RTC Live was there covering the Kentucky-Washington game and thought something was a little off when the desk in front of the correspondent and the basket supports from the ceiling began shaking back and forth.  Read this at the 6:36 mark.  The amazing thing is that the game and that moment in particular (when UW’s Venoy Overton elbowed a Kentucky player and received a technical foul) were so intense that few fans and actual participants even noticed the 4.6 temblor.  As John Calipari responded when asked about it: “there was an earthquake?”  Thankfully there was no damage to life or property anywhere, and it won’t go down as another Atlanta/SEC Tournament or thankfully an 1989 World Series pre-game, but it was a bizarre moment nevertheless.
2. This isn’t D1, but we feel obliged to talk about it for a moment.  A D3 game between Skidmore and Southern Vermont on Tuesday night went a division-record seven overtimes before Skidmore finally pulled it out, 128-123.  The game that ended in regulation tied at 59-all matched the D1 and D2 marks with the seven extra periods, with a 1981 contest between Cincinnati and Bradley acting as the longest such game at that level.  In an unbelievable exhibition of stamina, USV’s Lance Spratling played in all 75 minutes of the game, which means that henceforth whenever someone does something that requires a will beyond the normal call of duty, we shall say that person Spratlinged the mess out of it.  Interestingly, only 142 folks showed up to watch this game, 24 fewer than the new record number of rebounds for any level of NCAA basketball (166).
3. While we’re on the subject of records, Kansas last night expectedly broke its record of 62 consecutive home victories at Allen Fieldhouse with a convincing 82-41 victory over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.  The Jayhawks haven’t lost at home since February 2007, but they’ll likely have to go another four years to approach the all-time D1 record of 129 in a row, set by Kentucky back in the 1940s and 50s.
4. More records last night.  Coach K as you know (and discussed further here) got his 800th career victory at Duke last night against Kansas State, but Texas coach Rick Barnes also hit a milestone with the 500th victory of his career in a win against Sam Houston State.  He has a long way to go to catch the likes of Calhoun, K, Knight, Boeheim, etc., but given that he’s only 56 years old and he’s easily averaging 25 wins per year, Barnes could eventually work himself into that echelon of elites before he decides to retire.
5. Sigh… We’ll just let this one speak for itself.  This is a screenshot of Bruce Pearl’s wife’s (Brandy) Facebook page.  And we wonder why people are so self-absorbed and completely devoid of empathy?  Well, here’s Exhibit #127 in the prosecution’s case, Your Honor.

Your Watercooler Moment. Yeesh, take your pick. On Wednesday morning the two games the majority of hoop aficianados were most looking forward to from Tuesday night will yield the headlines to a so-called undercard matchup between #3 Michigan State and Connecticut, the latter a team slated to be foraging for leftover scraps in the Big East this year. Jim Calhoun beamed after the effort shown by his players in knocking off the Spartans, saying after the game, “We proved to the world that we can play.” Also in Maui, the Kentucky vs Washington matchup was so intense they played through a freaking 4.7-on-the-Richter scale earthquake that nobody in the building seemed to notice centered 30 miles south-southwest of the island, and four time zones away, Duke gave Kansas State false hope for a half before turning out their lights and inscribing Mike Krzyzewski into the 800 victories book for a single school. Oh, and a game between Appalachian State and Tennessee Tech was cancelled because the former forgot to provide refs. All of this, a feast before the feast…on the day the Spectrum died.

Onward And Upward -- Coach K Earned His 800th Duke Win On Tuesday

Tuesday’s Quick Hits…

• Connecticut Has A Pulse. And it’s strong. And its name is Kemba Walker. In 38 minutes of floor time in the Huskies’ capsizing of #3 Michigan State, Walker went 10-19 from the floor, 6-7 from the line, and added three boards, four assists, and three steals to his 30 points. Who cares that a kid’s getting up a shot every two minutes of game time when he’s producing like this?
• Kyrie Lays It On. Kyrie Irving smoked Jacob Pullen as if the latter were a finely aged Cohiba Siglo. He took Pullen to the bucket several times, scored or got to the line, twice producing and-ones. Irving saw other defenders, but it was Pullen in front of him a good deal of the night; this matchup saw the freshman wood-shedding the senior to the tune of 17/5/6 asst/2 steals.
• Unsung Wildcat Heroes, Take One. The talk will be about Terrence Jones‘ 16/17 (4-13 from the field) and Brandon Knight’s 24 points (he also had zero assists and eight turnovers), but the best line on the Wildcats’ side may have come from Josh Harrellson, the backup center many UK fans felt could barely qualify to be Enes Kanter’s personal assistant before the season. Harrellson had troubles with his handle, but in 34 minutes he contributed nine points on 4-6 shooting (one of those a trey), blocked two shots, and pulled in 14 rebounds, seven of them on the offensive end. DeAndre Liggins only added seven points and four rebounds, but he smothered UW’s Isaiah Thomas for most of the second half, frustrating him to no end (on which more in a bit).
• Unsung Wildcat Heroes, Take Two. The only bright spot from KSU’s defeat was the play of their reserves. Four players — namely Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels, Martavious Irving, and Will Spradling — played at least 13 minutes (three of them were in for 20+), and they accounted for 47 of K-State’s 68 points, shooting 18-29 (62%) from the field. Could there be lineup changes in store for Frank Martin’s squad?

…and Misses.

• Kalin, Not His Usual Ballin’. No particular player could be singled out as really letting MSU down, but Kalin Lucas would love another crack at this one. The Spartans actually shot better than UConn, but Lucas’ head-scratcher of a night consisted of a 4-12 shooting night, five turnovers and but a single assist. There won’t be many nights like this for Lucas this season.
• The Sprint Center Floor. We had the privilege of being in the Sprint Center for the Big 12 Tournament last year. It’s a great arena for college basketball. Plenty of press seating, helpful staff, and even the distant seats in the stands aren’t bad. But for the O’Reilly Auto Parts CBE Classic tonight, its floor had ten temporary logos on it, causing it to resemble one of those NASCAR automobiles (I guess they do race for the Sprint Cup, don’t they?) or a jersey from an Australian pro league team.
• Smeared the Beard. Jacob Pullen not only got schooled by a freshman in terms of how many times he got taken to the hole, but he couldn’t hit an elephant with a handful of rice on Tuesday night. Pullen will not have many 1-12 nights this year, and likely none in which he also throws in a defensive clanger like he did on Tuesday. But big games like this are not the time for these rare occasions to occur for the facially hirsute and usually excellent senior.
• Isaiah Was No Prophet. When the Maui brackets were released a few months ago, Isaiah Thomas tweeted that he was hoping his squad would run into Kentucky, a sentiment fueled by the bolting of recruits Kanter and Jones to UK after committing to UW. The Wildcats’ DeAndre Liggins intercalated himself into Thomas’ DNA on Tuesday, and as a result the UW guard was flummoxed into a 4-14 shooting night, two of those buckets coming as cosmetic late layups when UK let its defensive intensity slip a notch in hopes of not fouling.

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A good number of Conference Check-Ins went up on Tuesday, including the following major conferences…

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• CAA
• Conference USA
• SEC

Remember, the quickest way to keep up with these is to keep an eye on the box above — every time a new one is released it appears at the top of the Check-Ins box.  But we’ll keep doing these semi-daily updates as a reminder as well.

Game #31.  RTC Live visits Siena for the first time as the national runner-up Butler comes to town tonight.

The Butler Bulldogs arrive in the 518 area code tonight for a rematch with the Siena Saints. Under the leadership of coach Brad Stevens, the Bulldogs made a scintillating run at the NCAA championship, coming within two points of knocking off No. 1 seed Duke in one of the greatest games in recent memory. Unfortunately, yet another Butler underdog win was not to be, and forward Gordon Hayward’s halfcourt heave rattled in and out, giving Duke a 61-59 victory. Hayward took his talents to the NBA in the offseason and is now with the Jazz, but Butler managed to retain and extend up-and-coming coach Brad Stevens, who at age 35, has enjoyed a prodigious rise along with mid-major Butler. Star guard Shelvin Mack and post player Matt Howard look to provide the one-two scoring punch for the Bulldogs, while on the Siena side, the Saints turn to their own inside-outside duo in Ryan Rossiter and Clarence Jackson. The Saints have struggled in the early going, dropping the first two games of the season to Vermont and Minnesota, respectively, before bouncing back with a win over Northeastern. For its part, Butler dropped a high-profile matchup with Lousiville in the season opener before going two-for-two in its last two contests. This game features a matchup of a team that has arrived nationally as a midmajor giant-killer (Butler) and a program that is trying to emulate the kind of sustained success Butler has enjoyed this past decade (Siena). Tonight’s game is a rematch of last year’s Bracketbusters matchup, which saw the Bulldogs pull down a 70-53 victory en route to a 33-win season.

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