ATB: February Parity Turns to March Mayhem

Posted by rtmsf on February 28th, 2011

The Lede.  It was the last weekend in February, and as we come out of it, we’re less clear about who the favorites are to cut down the nets in early April than we have been at any point this season.  RTCs went down in Blacksburg, Boulder, Springfield and more, befitting the stress, pressure and expectations of a season reaching its regular season terminus.  As usual, after a weekend like this, there’s a lot to cover, so let’s jump right in with some of the major moments…

 

An RTC Kinda Weekend

Your Watercooler MomentParity is This Year’s Dominance. It was another weekend where many of the top teams came away with losses.  #2 Duke (#1 AP/#1 ESPN) went to Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Virginia, on Saturday night and left with a lighter load. #3 Pittsburgh (#4 AP/#6 ESPN) dropped a tough Big East road battle at Louisville for the second straight weekend.  #4 Texas (#5 AP/#5 ESPN) suffered a ridiculously bad second half at Colorado and headed back to Austin with two Ls in its last three outings.  #5 San Diego State (#6 AP/#4 ESPN) suffered the ignoble embarrassment of getting Jimmered in its own building by the only team to have proven it can beat the Aztecs this season.  Shuffle the deck for another week and repeat.  The only top teams to come out unscathed this weekend were #1 Ohio State (#2 AP/#3 ESPN), #6 Kansas (#3 AP/#2 ESPN) and #7 BYU (#7 AP/#7 ESPN) — and both the Buckeyes and Jayhawks were part of last week’s poll carnage.  The point we’re making is a simple one: the field is completely wide open this year.  It wouldn’t surprise us nor should it surprise you if none of the eventual #1 seeds make it to the Final Four — the difference between the top seven named above and the next tier of teams is not large.  The four teams we would put on our top line as of tonight — Ohio State, Pitt, BYU and Kansas — are all strong candidates to lose at least one more game between now and Selection Sunday, now only fourteen days out.  This kind of parity among the top teams makes for an exciting NCAA Tournament, but it shouldn’t shock anybody if the seeds that make it to Houston in April add up to a total well into the teens (e.g., 2, 3, 6, 8).

Your Watercooler Moment, Pt. IIThat Stupid Louisville Cheerleader.  If Rick Pitino were a little younger and brasher (say, the Knicks or early Kentucky eras), the Louisville cheerleader who grabbed the ball and tossed it up into the air after what appeared to be Kyle Kuric’s game-sealing dunk would already be encased in concrete in the Ohio River locks.  Instead, the older and somewhat more forgiving head coach will likely only have a horse’s head delivered to the cheerleader’s bed for making his gaffe with 0.5 seconds remaining on the clock.  The sophomoric ball-toss resulted in two technical FTs for Pitt taking a five-point lead down to three, and the Panthers put up a decent half-court heave at the buzzer that would have tied the game.  We can understand a little confusion with respect to the last half-second of time running off the clock, but why touch the ball at all?  That should be the province of the players and game officials, nobody else, and the cheer people should understand that better than most.  Here’s the question on everyone’s mind, though: will Cheer Dufus be back in action or will Pitino have him removed (we’re not sure what “The male cheerleader is coming to an end” means exactly)?

Your Watercooler Moment, Pt. IIITyler Trapani Shuts Down Pauley With an Assist From the Ghost of John Wooden.  It was the last game in Pauley Pavilion, the House That Wooden Built, before it undergoes massive renovations over the next year-plus to bring the building seemingly mired in the 1960s into the modern era.  UCLA was throttling league-leading Arizona and the Bruin partisans were rocking out with every Reeves Nelson dunk, Josh Smith twirl and each  long-range brick from Arizona.  With just a few seconds remaining in garbage time, UCLA’s Jack Haley, Jr., missed a corner three badly short; standing directly under the basket to catch it and lay it in as the final points scored in the “old” Pauley was walk-on Tyler Trapani, The Wizard of Westwood’s great-grandson.  The bucket represented his only two points of the entire season, and it seemed a fitting tribute to finishing off the old barn in its current state.  Pauley Pavilion is one of the temples of the sport, so we’re glad to hear that UCLA is finally updating it — it’s our opinion that modernizing a terrific old venue is much preferred to building an austere and lifeless new one.

This Weekend’s Quick Hits

  • Virginia Tech and Colorado’s RTCs.  Coverage of the court was quick, complete and rowdy, befitting how you should RTC when you take down a top five team in your building.  Virginia Tech’s crowd was fantastic the entire evening, as the below video clearly illustrates (move ahead for the RTC, and here’s a bird’s eye view if you’re into that).  As the second video shows, Colorado’s was also quite good (here’s another from within the maelstrom at center court).  Perhaps more importantly, the huge wins keep both teams’ hopes alive for an at-large NCAA bid in two weeks.  Much was expected from both of these schools prior to season tipoff, but they’ve had myriad ups and downs along the way.  These two huge wins will go a long way toward finding the right side of the bubble in fourteen days.

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BGTD: Late Afternoon/Evening Games Analysis

Posted by rtmsf on February 26th, 2011

It’s been a great late February Saturday of college basketball, with some high-quality action that you’d hope and expect to see this time of year.  Let’s take a look at a few of the key storylines from the second half of today’s coverage.

  • Colorado Second Half Bombards Texas Defense.  It was one of those games where we were barely keeping an eye on the gametracker because it appeared quite early on that this would become another UT blowout led by their defensive mastery.  As it turned out, a 48-33 halftime lead in Boulder didn’t mean much, because the Buffs shredded the vaunted Longhorn D in a way that nobody else in the Big 12 (or America) has been able to this season.  Consider this: in fourteen conference games, the Longhorns had not given up more than 58 points in eight of them — today, Colorado put up that number in the second half in coming from as many as 22 down to win, 91-89.  CU’s Alec Burks had a monstrous 33/10 game, and it appears that the Colorado team that many suspected was in Boulder before the season began is finally hitting its stride.  Having now won three of four, with two more winnable games (@ Iowa State; vs. Nebraska), the Buffs could be in position to finish at 9-7 in the conference and even make a run at a first round bye in the Big 12 Championship.
  • So, About Texas? It’s cliched to point out that Rick Barnes’ teams at Texas have by and large not finished up strong, but with road wins in consecutive weekends at places not named Lawrence, Columbia or even College Station, there need to be some alarm bells going off in Austin.  With the loss today, the Longhorns’ fifth of the season, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where UT has a reasonable shot at a #1 seed — and they certainly would need some help regardless.  The question is whether this is just a blip or if teams have started to figure them out — two of the Horns worst four defensive showings this season (as measured by points per possession) occurred today and against NU.  In order to prove to us (and the nation) that this UT team is in fact different than some of the others in recent vintage, they really need to clobber surging K-State and Baylor in their last two regular season games.
  • Kentucky’s Home vs. Away Quandary.  After today’s 76-68 win over Florida, one of the nation’s most schizophrenic teams has moved to 7-0 in the SEC at home and 1-6 on the road.  How and why is this happenening?  It’s pretty simple, actually.  The two legitimate NBA talents that John Calipari has at his disposal — guard Brandon Knight and forward Terrence Jones — are almost equally effective no matter where they play.  The problem is that their less-talented teammates such as DeAndre Liggins, Darius Miller and Doron Lamb, drop off considerably away from Rupp Arena.  Lamb, for example, averages 15.8 PPG on 57% shooting in Lexington (today: 14 pts on 6-9 FG); away from home he’s at 12.4 PPG and 47%.  DeAndre Liggins is even more volatile: 11.0 PPG on 47% shooting at home, and  6.0 PPG on 32% away.  A general tenet of March basketball is to never trust teams who can’t win away from home — something to remember when filling out brackets in just two short weeks.
  • Miserable SoCal Trip For Arizona. After last weekend’s big win over Washington in Tucson, the last thing Sean Miller wanted to see was a two-loss trip to Southern California.  That’s what he got, though, as his team dropped a close one to USC on Thursday night before getting run out of the closing-for-renovations Pauley Pavilion today.  A 22-2 run blew the thing open, rendering the second half a showcase for the ever-improving Reeves Nelson (27/16) and ending in a fitting way, with John Wooden’s great-grandson, Tyler Trapani, scoring the final points in the old barn before it becomes closes to become modernized.  We’re still not sure if Ben Howland’s team is any kind of postseason threat, but we thought Arizona was; it’ll be interesting to watch how the Wildcats recover from a lost opportunity this weekend next week at home in addition to seeing if UCLA can steal one or two on the road at the Washingtons.  
  • Did Virginia Tech Finally Get Over the NCAA Hump? Of course, it’s hard to say for certain with these guys.  After vanquishing #1 Duke for its most important win in years, the Hokies will probably turn around and lose to Boston College at home on Tuesday.  Let’s hope not.  When he’s not whining about being left out of the Tournament in March, Seth Greenberg strikes us as a nice fellow, and for a school that has had a number of ups and downs in its basketball program this year, we’re hoping that the Hokies don’t blow the good will and RPI boost that this win engenders.  As for Duke, this loss may have cost the Devils a #1 seed.  They still have to travel to Chapel Hill (a team that gave them all kinds of hell in Durham) and win the ACC Tournament.  One more slip-up and we’re not sure they’ll have the overall profile needed to earn it outright.  Their profile honestly doesn’t look significantly different than BYU’s, for example.
  • Bubbling Up: Colorado, Baylor and Kansas State in the Big 12; Butler in the Horizon; Clemson and Virginia Tech in the ACC; Michigan in the Big Ten; UAB in CUSA.
  • Bubbling Down: Wichita State in the Valley; Alabama in the SEC; Memphis and Southern Miss in CUSA; Minnesota in the Big Ten; Colorado State in the Mountain West.

RTC Live: Seton Hall @ Notre Dame

Posted by rtmsf on February 26th, 2011

Game #154.  Notre Dame has put together a fantastic regular season, and they seek to finish up strong with a home game today against Seton Hall.

After a close call victory over Providence on Wednesday evening, Notre Dame returns home after a three game road trip that featured stops at South Florida, West Virginia, and Providence. The Irish are undefeated at home this season, as the Seton Hall Pirates enter the Purcell Pavilion on Saturday evening. Kevin Willard’s squad has struggled mightily in his first year, as the Pirates are just 11-16 and have faced a myriad of personnel problems. The Irish led by seniors Ben Hansbrough, Tim Abromaitis, and Carleton Scott will look to defeat Seton Hall to continue their quest of ensuring the possession of the number two seed in what will be an ultra-competitive Big East tournament. Seton Hall will attempt to play spoiler, as well as getting a win to highlight the illustrious career of their senior guard Jeremy Hazell. Irish coach Mike Brey will look to lead his team to a victory on a night where Notre Dame will honor one of its legends- Austin Carr- by inducting him into the Irish Ring of Honor- currently only occupied by former ND great Luke Harangody and Irish women’s legend Ruth Riley. If the Irish march out to an early lead then it is reasonable to conclude that the Irish will provide its fans with a stirring home victory.

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BGTD: Early Afternoon Games Analysis

Posted by jstevrtc on February 26th, 2011

The only question on a day like today after the early flight of games is…how’s the bubble? The biggest worry for bubble teams is not necessarily racking up good wins late in the year, because the schedule is, of course, already set. What you don’t want to do is give the selection committee something negative on which to hang their hat so they can leave you out. In other words, don’t play yourself out of the Tournament. So far today…

  • Let there be no doubt about Kansas State. They’ve already done enough to get in, but if you’re a bubble team you still don’t want to trip up late and drop games at home. The Wildcats, knowing that they’re in, could have come out complacent in an early game today against Missouri and  just gone through the motions. No, sir. The raves will pile up for Jacob Pullen (24 points on 6-10 and 4-4 from three) and Curtis Kelly (15/6 on 7-9), and with good reason. Pullen’s vocal leadership late in the season has been a revelation for KSU, but let’s give some juice to the Kansas State bench today, chipping in 29 points, 16 rebounds, and eight assists. And look at the unselfishness on display. The Wildcats hit 28 shots…off of 23 assists!
  • For a team playing themselves out of The Dance, look no further than VCU. A few weeks ago all the talk was about how the CAA might get two or three teams in, with VCU an obvious choice. Over the past two weeks, all the Rams have done is drop four of five, including today’s senior day game against Colonial sixth-placers James Madison (72-69). No disrespect to the Dukes, because you don’t win 21 games (so far) without being a solid squad, especially in a rapidly improving conference. But despite NCAA selectors confirming that the “last 10 games” criteria isn’t considered, bubble teams that run into late losing streaks tend to wind up on the outside looking in on post-selection Monday. Barring a CAA Tournament title, you’ve got to figure that VCU is done.

RTC Live: Texas @ Colorado

Posted by rtmsf on February 26th, 2011

Game #155.  Texas travels to Boulder to take on a team fighting for its NCAA Tournament life — will it be another road nightmare for the Horns like last week?

Colorado enters Saturday’s contest against No. 5 Texas with a lot to prove, considering they 1-4 against the conference’s top four teams this season. With the win, the Buffs can improve to 7-7 in conference play and earn its second big victory in Big 12 play. As for the Longhorns, they can improve to 25-4 with a win, but must contain the Buffs star, guard Alec Burks. The sophomore has been was dominant as any player in the conference from Jan. 8 to Feb. 9. Although he has cooled off, UT cannot afford to let him get comfortable at home. Playing at a higher elevation could hurt the Longhorns, who should be looking to use their bench more than usual. The team’s best players are apparent, but they will need to win with a solid team effort today as the Buffs want to play the upset card against the top team in conference. The match-up today boils down to the Longhorns defense, No. 14 in the nation, versus the fast-paced Buffalo offense, No. 15 in the nation with 79 points per game.

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RTC Live: Wichita State @ Missouri State

Posted by rtmsf on February 26th, 2011

Game #153.  It’s all come down to this single game for the MVC regular season championship for 2010-11.

Since joining the Missouri Valley Conference in 1990, there’s one thing Missouri State has never done: win a regular season title. That’s why Saturday’s contest with Wichita State, a six-time MVC champion, at the sparkling JQH Arena is one of the most important games in program history. The two teams are tied at the top of the standings at 14-3, so the city of Springfield is effectively hosting the Missouri Valley regular season championship game this weekend. MSU won at Koch Arena in January, a stunning result at the time because the Shockers are traditionally so dominant in that building. Wichita State has since lost three more home games, but it’s looked more comfortable on the road– the Shockers’ only road loss this season came at San Diego State. Saturday’s game is all about toughness. Wichita State thinks it’s tougher than you, and it wins by crashing the offensive glass and feeding the paint. That doesn’t intimidate Missouri State, because former Purdue assistant Cuonzo Martin takes a tough-nosed approach with his program, too. As far as individual match-ups go, WSU’s J.T. Durley may be the Valley’s best back-to-the-basket scorer. He’ll have his hands full with the Bears’ frontcourt tandem, which consists of POY candidate Kyle Weems and the fiery Will Creekmore. Gregg Marshall has a deeper roster with more athleticism, and he has the ability to pressure teams full court whenever he likes. Without consistent point guard play, though, his team’s been prone to offensive droughts in the half-court, and he’ll need more out of guard Toure’ Murry, who made just one shot in that January meeting. The two teams are long shots for at-large bids, so Arch Madness next week is the more important event, but a conference championship is on the line Saturday. How’s that for some drama?

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RTC Live: Syracuse @ Georgetown

Posted by rtmsf on February 26th, 2011

Game #152.  A timeless classic reconvenes in the District on a Saturday afternoon.  We’re pleased to be there.

This game changed quite a bit on Wednesday when Chris Wright, Georgetown’s starting point guard, second leading scorer and best creator, broke his hand against Cincinnati. Simply put, Georgetown is a much different team without Wright. We can argue about his talent and his consistency, but the bottom line is that he is a competitor, he’s capable of going for 30 on any given night, and, frankly, he is just that much better than Georgetown’s next best option at the point, Markel Starks.  There are two scenarios that can play out tomorrow. Starks can start, or JT III can slide Jason Clark to the point and start Hollis Thompson. Neither option is ideal, as Starks is a freshman and Clark is not a point guard. The good news for Georgetown is that their base offense, the Princeton hybrid that JT III loves, is essentially position-less. You don’t need a point guard or a playmaker like you would in a ball-screen offense. It will be interesting to see what the Hoyas can do against the Syracuse zone in their first game without Wright.  As for Syracuse, they are coming off of a nice win at Villanova and generally seem to be a better team on the road this season. Their biggest issue is that Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph, the Orange’s two best playmakers, are not the best decision-makers. Both teams still have a chance at earning one of the Big East’s top four seeds and a spot in the double bye in the Big East tournament.

Set Your Tivo: 02.26-02.27

Posted by Brian Otskey on February 25th, 2011

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

We are now only about two weeks away from Selection Sunday. Teams are locking up bids and others are hurting their chances down the stretch. It’s another big weekend in the college hoops world, headlined by a top ten battle in the Mountain West. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

#20 Syracuse @ #11 Georgetown – 12 pm Saturday on CBS (****)

Coach Thompson and the Hoyas Will Likely Be Without Their Most Important Player on Saturday

The Orange will look to avenge another home defeat by winning on the road, this time in Washington, D.C. Here’s a quirky fact for you: Syracuse has lost to all three of its repeat opponents (Georgetown, Villanova and Seton Hall) at the Carrier Dome but a win on Saturday would give them wins in the home buildings of all three teams. That has become more likely in this one, after Chris Wright broke his hand in Wednesday’s loss to Cincinnati. As a talented senior point guard, Wright is Georgetown’s most indispensible player. He doesn’t wow you with his shooting but he passes the ball well and does an excellent job of running John Thompson III’s complex offensive sets.

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Official RTC Bubble Watch: 02.25.11

Posted by zhayes9 on February 25th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

16 days till Selection Sunday as more bubble teams hurt than helped their cause over the last week. Here’s the latest Bubble Watch update on where those teams stand heading into the stretch run:

New Locks

Xavier 21-6, (12-1) 27 RPI, 69 SOS– The Musketeers have now won 11 of 12 to establish themselves in a familiar spot atop the Atlantic 10 standings. Xavier holds a one game lead over Temple and won their only head-to-head matchup back on January 22. With a home game against bottom feeder Charlotte still remaining and an RPI/SOS to back up their record, Chris Mack’s team is safely in the Dance. Xavier also has non-conference wins at Georgia and vs. Butler to go along with Temple and at Richmond in A-10 play.

Temple 21-6 (11-2), 33 RPI, 108 SOS– Despite a plethora of injuries throughout the campaign, Temple has compiled a resume worthy of inclusion into the field of 68. The Owls stand at 11-2 in the Atlantic 10 and it’s highly unlikely they lose any of their final three games at George Washington, at Massachusetts and home vs. La Salle. Temple also beat Georgetown at home and Georgia on a neutral floor and beat Richmond at home. With a decent RPI also boosting their chances, the Owls are a safe bet for a bid.

Texas A&M 22-5 (9-4), 25 RPI, 47 SOS– It hasn’t been the smoothest of waters, but the Aggies have accumulated enough wins to be considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Prior to a 14-point win over Oklahoma in which A&M trailed at halftime, the Aggies won their previous four games by a combined 12 points. With a 9-4 Big 12 mark and a home date with Texas Tech still on the slate, they appear safe. A&M also downed Temple and Washington out of conference and have wins over Missouri and Kansas State during Big 12 play.

George Mason 24-5 (15-2), 28 RPI, 102 SOS– The Patriots certified their NCAA bid with a two-game road sweep at VCU and Northern Iowa. They boast the longest winning streak in the nation and finish with two very winnable games in CAA competition, rendering a 25-5 (16-2) overall mark and top 25 RPI all but a certainty. That should be more than enough in the committee’s eyes for an at-large berth.

UNLV 21-7 (9-5), 30 RPI, 42 SOS– This was a closer call than the previous three, but in today’s bubble climate the Rebels likely clinched a bid with their OT win at New Mexico on Wednesday night. Their RPI/SOS are stellar, they beat both Wisconsin (home) and Kansas State (semi-neutral in KC) away from MWC play and also won at bubble team Colorado State. Even if they should split very winnable games remaining vs. Wyoming and at Utah, 10-6 in the MWC with that Wisconsin win warrants inclusion.

Lavoy Allen, Ramone Moore and Temple are now a lock for the field of 68

Atlantic 10

Locks: Xavier, Temple.

Richmond 21-7 (10-3), 67 RPI, 170 SOS- The Spiders have faced Xavier and Temple in the last month and lost both games by a combined 43 points, a fact that surely will stand out to the committee when they convene in 16 days. Without much depth in the Atlantic 10, Richmond must first win out their remaining three games against sub RPI top-200 teams Charlotte and St. Joe’s then beat Duquesne at home to have any chance. They probably then have to beat either Xavier or Temple in the A-10 Tournament to earn a bid. Their lone win over an NCAA Tournament team was against Purdue on a neutral floor back in November.

ACC

Locks: Duke, North Carolina.

Florida State 19-8 (9-4), 45 RPI, 94 SOS– The Seminoles played their first legitimate game without Chris Singleton Wednesday at Maryland and the results weren’t promising. At 9-4 in the ACC, though, Florida State can lock up a bid by winning either vs. North Carolina or at NC State in the last week of the campaign. Luckily their one quality win was potential #1 seed Duke because FSU’s resume is bogged down by a #116 SOS, a horrendous loss at Auburn and only one other win against a possible NCAA Tournament team – Boston College at home.

Virginia Tech 18-8 (8-5), 51 RPI, 97 SOS– The RPI/SOS are poor, but hopefully the committee digs deeper and gives Seth Greenberg a bit of a pass for trying to schedule difficult non-conference games after last season’s debacle. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Mississippi State and UNLV all underachieved relative to expectations and a rash of injuries derailed hopes of a top-two ACC finish. Still, the Hokies have a remarkable opportunity staring them right in the face with Duke at home tomorrow. Win and they can clinch a bid by just splitting their final two games vs. Boston College and at Clemson.

Boston College 16-11 (6-7), 58 RPI, 17 SOS– The Eagles sustained their most devastating loss of the season at the worst possible time falling to Miami (FL) at home on Wednesday. BC badly needed to take care of business against the Hurricanes before heading out to Virginia and Virginia Tech in the next week. Steve Donahue’s team has now lost five games to teams with an RPI or 65 or less and their two wins over NCAA teams are Texas A&M on a neutral floor in November and home vs. Virginia Tech. Assuming a loss in Blacksburg, the Eagles at 8-8 in the ACC will need at least one conference tournament win to have a legitimate chance.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M.

Missouri 22-6 (8-5), 22 RPI, 55 SOS– The only reason Missouri isn’t a lock yet is because of their challenging slate still remaining – at Kansas State, at Nebraska and Kansas. It’s possible the Tigers could fall in all three games and drop to 21-9 (8-8) with only one road win in Big 12 play. Even then, Missouri would only need one or two wins in the Big 12 Tournament to solidify a bid, showing how close Mizzou is to locking up a spot in the field. Mike Anderson’s squad have three RPI top-50 wins out of conference over Vanderbilt (home), Illinois (neutral) and Old Dominion (home) and beat Kansas State (home).

Kansas State 19-9 (7-6), 28 RPI, 6 SOS– Frank Martin’s team took a major step towards an NCAA bid by downing fellow bubble team Nebraska on the road on Wednesday. The Wildcats’ RPI/SOS keeps climbing and that win over Kansas does stand out, plus it appears wins over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga could be worth something. Kansas State needs to reach 9-7 in the Big 12 to clinch a bid and they have home dates with Missouri and Iowa State to accomplish that feat. The sandwich game is at Texas, so it’s imperative the Wildcats protect their floor or they’ll have to win one game in the Big 12 Tournament.

Baylor 17-10 (6-7), 68 RPI, 39 SOS– Any team sitting bubble-out in late February needs RPI top-25 win opportunities. Luckily for Baylor, there are two golden opportunities still on the schedule with Texas A&M and Texas coming to Waco in the season’s final two weeks. The brutal RPI and losses to Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are devastating, and the only factor keeping the Bears alive is their remaining schedule and that road victory at Texas A&M. Baylor probably needs to go 2-1 (at Oklahoma State is the third game left, not exactly an easy win) and make a deep Big 12 Tournament run. For a team with preseason top 15 expectations, 2010-11 has been a bitter pill to swallow for Scott Drew.

Nebraska 18-9 (6-7), 75 RPI, 75 SOS– The Cornhuskers desperately needed to follow up their monumental win over Texas with a victory over Kansas State to continue their uphill climb. The close loss dropped Nebraska to 6-7 in the Big 12 and, with zero quality wins out of conference, they need to win their final three games at Iowa State, home vs. Missouri and at Colorado to have a fighter’s chance. Nebraska is 2-6 vs. the RPI top-25 with a win over Texas A&M to go along with Texas. The lackluster RPI/SOS obviously doesn’t help.

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Behind the Numbers: Cliches and Champions

Posted by KCarpenter on February 25th, 2011

I like cliches, because they give me something to do. The proverbs of the sporting world and the received aphoristic wisdom of our hallowed forefathers are well-known and often taken for granted. They are also, fortunately, not too hard to test or analyze. I’m a fairly agreeable guy, but I must say, few things give me as much joy as being contrary in the face of stupid cliches. It’s an easy thing to do in the blogosphere, equivalent to shooting fish in a barrel, and there are many out there who are better gunslingers than I. But, for now, let’s joyously take aim at the hoariest one of all: “Defense wins championships.”

Great Sign, But Does It Win Championships?

Obviously, playing some defense is necessary to win anything. No one is arguing with that. But what the phrase really seems to mean is that teams with excellent defenses are the ones that win the big one. More than that, the phrase implies that defense, above offense, is the thing that separates the great teams from the good ones. Like so many things, it seems like our little proverb has things half right. In college basketball, the national champions have all been excellent defensive teams. The worst defenses to have won the title since 2003 are Syracuse (in 2003), or arguably, North Carolina in 2009 and even then, both of these teams had defenses that ranked in the top twenty in terms of defensive efficiency. Teams with bad defenses don’t win championships. If we want to take our proverb only this far, we can be happy.

The suggestion that quality defense is more important than quality offense is where the trouble starts. While every title-winning team since 2003 has had a quality defense, they have also all had quality offenses. The worst offense of any of these teams also belonged to that 2003 Syracuse team and it was, by Ken Pomeroy’s reckoning, the eleventh best in the country. So, it seems that we could, if we wanted, reasonably compromise and say, “Offense and defense win championships,” but that is ridiculously banal, and reasonable compromise is kind of boring. If you want to pick only one, offense is what wins championships.

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