RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. Walker Carey (@walkerRcarey) is in Orlando this weekend.

Florida Advances by Taking Control in the Second Half (USA Today Images)

Three Key Takeaways.

1. Devin Robinson was the best player on the court. Devin Robinson has always had the tools to be a star. He has great size at 6’8″ and is one of those athletes who is simply breathtaking to observe. The issue, though, with the junior has been his consistency. One game he will look great and the next game he will completely disappear. In today’s victory over East Tennessee State, Robinson turned in one of his best games of the season. The athletic forward finished with 24 points (10-of-17 FG and 2-of-5 3FG) and collected seven rebounds. The most impressive part of his performance was that it seemed like whenever Florida needed a bucket to separate itself, it was Robinson who came through with the answer. The question now is whether Robinson be able to turn in a similar performance Saturday against Virginia’s stout defense?
2. Florida cranked things up defensively in the second half. At halftime it appeared we were headed for a down-to-the-wire finish, but that all changed with Florida increasing its defensive intensity and making things more difficult for the ETSU offense in the second half. The Buccaneers were held to just 33 second-half points, shot just 33.3 percent from the field, and committed nine turnovers in the latter 20 minutes. The quickness of Florida’s guards has been well-documented all season, but it appeared that any preparation by East Tennessee State went for naught, as Gators guards Kasey Hill and Chris Chiozza harassed the Bucs’ backcourt during what had to have been a very frustrating second half.
3. Turnovers helped do in East Tennessee State. The box score shows there a small disparity in the turnover margin – East Tennessee State committed 17 and Florida committed 15 — but that, however,  is not the whole story of the giveaway battle. When Florida began to pull away in the second half, East Tennessee State could not put a sustained string of possessions together, as it kept turning the ball over to the Gators to accelerate their run. Florida deserves credit for making things difficult for the East Tennessee State offense, but the Bucs’ carelessness with the basketball played a major role in deciding the outcome.

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Gonzaga was just too much physically and athletically for a South Dakota State team whose fans were very happy just to see their Jackrabbits in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs never got into what one would consider a strong offensive flow, but their defense carried them today and they bracketed the half with spurts that ultimately made the difference.

It Wasn’t Pretty but It Counts All the Same (USA Today Images)

Three Key Takeaways.

1. Gonzaga’s defense may be what saves them. The Bulldogs’ defense simply overwhelmed South Dakota State, holding the Jackrabbits to 31 percent shooting and an Offensive Rating of 65.7. It has to be some comfort to head coach Mark Few that on a day when his offense was largely missing in action, Gonzaga can still dominate the other end of the court well enough to win.
2. The Bulldogs’ versatility is a big part of who they are.  As much as Nigel Williams-Goss handles the ball, the versatility of Jordan Mathews, Johnathan Williams and Silas Melson is crucial on both ends because the Zags can switch virtually everything that doesn’t involve Przemek Karnowski. Four different guys can bring the ball upcourt and initiate the offense.
3. A slow start is not a habit you want to form. Gonzaga had only 19 points through the game’s first 16 minutes and an offensive efficiency at the half of 81.3, well below its season average. It was just one game, but slow starts like that are the stuff upon which upsets are built.

Star of the Game. Jordan Mathews, Gonzaga. The transfer guard didn’t exactly tear it up today in 32 minutes, but he led the Zags in scoring through the meaningful portion of the game, grabbed five rebounds and didn’t turn the ball over. This was an ugly grind-it-out game, and ‘star’ may be a stretch, but Mathews was solid if not spectacular for Gonzaga.

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Butler never really had to sweat in its 76-64 victory over Winthrop in the First Round today, playing like the higher-seeded team in holding the Eagles to 27 first-half  points on 34.5 percent shooting. After Winthrop got the neutral members of the crowd on its side by cutting the Butler lead to seven with 13:28 left, Butler took control of the game and never looked back.

Butler Was Never Really Threatened in Today’s First Round Game with Winthrop (USA Today Images)

Three Key Takeaways.

1.  The seniors showed up for Butler. Whether it was Avery Woodson putting on his own personal three-point shooting contest by going 5-of-7 in the first half, Andrew Chrabascz simply being solid in a number of areas on both sides of the floor, or Tyler Lewis doling out eight assists and only committing one turnover, Butler’s upperclassmen all played really well today without any particular lulls in production or intensity.
2. Xavier Cooks and Keon Johnson were fun to watch. It wasn’t enough to carry Winthrop to a win today against a Big East opponent with a burgeoning postseason pedigree, but it’s easy to see how Winthrop won the Big South. Cooks and Johnson didn’t maintain their level of production all game, but they both had a couple of “wow” moments apiece. Cooks showed a versatile inside-out game with some nifty and crafty moves in getting to the rim and finishing; Johnson meanwhile was obviously the fastest man on the court, exhibiting this attribute when he went on a personal 7-0 run early in the second half.
3. Kelan Martin needs to do more. What happened in today’s game was fine for Butler because the Bulldogs held a 28-9 advantage in bench points. But in future games, Kelan Martin must be more aggressive. He was barely noticeable in the opening stanza before contributed something late. Another no-show from the Bulldogs’ leading scorer might lead to the end of the season.

Star of the Game. Avery Woodson, Butler. Woodson broke things open early with his hot shooting, making it difficult for Winthrop to put much pressure on the Bulldogs. The senior graduate transfer entered the game shooting 41.7 percent from behind the arc, but he finished by making 6-of-10 on the afternoon. He also added a respectable five rebounds from the guard spot and committed zero turnovers. Sometimes a hot shooter can carry a team a round or two in March, and Woodson showed he has that capability.

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RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. Walker Carey (@walkerRcarey) is in Orlando this weekend.

London Perrantes Led His Team to a First Round Victory Today (USA Today Images)

Three Key Takeaways.

1. London Perrantes took over the game after UNC-Wilmington’s hot start. Virginia got off to a slow start this afternoon. After UNC-Wilmington guard Denzel Ingram knocked down a three with 7:25 to play in the first half to build a 26-11 lead, it looked as if the Cavaliers were primed to become the first upset victim of this NCAA Tournament. That turned out not to be the case, though, as Virginia clamped down defensively and made enough big shots to advance to the next round. A major reason for the change in fortune was senior point guard London Perrantes, who grabbed control of the game and made big play after big play to ensure his collegiate career didn’t end today. A theme throughout NCAA Tournament history has been that veteran guard play is very important in determining who moves on and who goes home. If that continues this year, look for Perrantes to lead Virginia deep into the bracket.
2. While Perrantes was Virginia’s most valuable player, Marial Shayok’s scoring outburst was essential to the winning effort. It quickly became apparent in the second half that UNC-Wilmington was not going to fade away and allow Virginia to coast to the easy victory. The Cavaliers were going to need to score to emerge with the win. To get those points, they turned to junior forward Marial Shayok, who turned in a career-best performance of 23 points (8-of-14 FG, 3-of-5 3FG). Tony Bennett’s teams have a well-earned reputation for comfort with slow-paced games played in the 50s or 60s. With UNC-Wilmington mostly dictating the pace today, Shayok led the scoring charge necessary to get to the Second Round.
3. How much longer will Kevin Keatts be at UNC-Wilmington? Even with today’s result, it is difficult to not to be impressed with what Kevin Keatts has built at UNC-Wilmington. The Seahawks have won 72 games over the last three seasons, and both of their NCAA Tournament losses – this afternoon’s defeat along with last year’s eight-point loss to Duke – have been closely contested games. That much success makes it reasonable to question how long Keatts will remain at the helm in southeastern North Carolina. Successful mid-major coaches are poached by high-majors every spring, and with several good jobs already open, it is safe to assume his name will be brought up in at least a few conversations. It will be interesting to watch where Keatts opens the 2017-18 season.

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Notre Dame didn’t play its best game of the season in the NCAA Tournament opener Thursday, but the Irish were able to survive a second-half Princeton push to advance to the second round.

Bonzie Colson, V.J. Beachem, and the rest of the Irish were lucky to survive Thursday afternoon (Photo: ND Insider)

Key Takeaways

1. Princeton couldn’t find the range from deep. The Tigers’ ineptitude from long range (they made just 8-of-31 three-point attempts) was the defining element of this game. Devin Cannady, who shot 42 percent from long range on the season, made just two of his 10 attempts today. The largest of those eight misses came with just three seconds to play and the Tigers down two; when Cannady’s potential game-winner caromed off the back rim, Princeton’s upset bid was effectively over, and in fitting fashion: on a three-point miss.
2. Irish dominate the glass. Notre Dame and its undersized roster rarely found an ACC team it could dominate on the glass, but the Ivy League champs proved beatable on the backboards. Bonzie Colson‘s 12 boards paced the Irish, which finished with nine offensive rebounds and a +3 rebounding advantage. On a day when the shots were not falling, those second opportunities were extremely important.
3. Bonzie keeps grinding. Notre Dame’s gritty leader submitted one more tough performance in a season full of them. Colson had 18 points, seven rebounds, and a pair of blocks — all of which led the Irish. He did leave some points on the board – Colson shot just 6-of-13 from the field and missed four of his 10 free throw attempts — but on a day where Irish three-point attempts (11) and makes (four) were well below their season averages, it was the resourcefulness of Colson that again carried the offense.

Star of the Game. Matt Farrell, Notre Dame. The Irish point guard, like every other player in this game, was far from perfect; however, Farrell was a spark for much of the afternoon, finishing with 16 points, four assists, and a pair of steals. He made six of his nine field goal attempts (including three from long-range) and came up with a number of key hoops to maintain the Irish lead early in the second half. Colson was equally effective, but Farrell gets the nod as the most efficient player on this afternoon.

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March is complicated. What follows is an attempt to make some sense of the madness and to give you solid statistical grounding in order to justify your decisions. That way, when your bracket is ruined, it will be because of bad luck rather than bad process. Here are 68 important statistical facts about the NCAA Tournament, mostly based around potential match-ups. Data has been gathered from kenpom.com, hooplens, hoop-math and ESPN.com.

The First Four Whetted Our Appetite — Now It’s Time to Get Serious (USA Today Images)

1. Even though Maryland is the #6 seed against Xavier, the Musketeers have a better KenPom ranking and are favored to win the game.
2. However, since point guard Edmond Sumner was injured 10 games ago, Xavier has been giving up more threes at a higher percentage. With a 3PA/FGA of 40.8, compared to the Division I average of 36.4, Maryland is heavily reliant on the three-ball.
3. Baylor’s opponents have an assist rate of 58.2 percent, second highest in the field. SMU’s assist rate of 62.5 percent ranks sixth in the field and 10th nationally.
4. Creighton attempts a larger proportion (34.2%) of its initial field goals in transition than any other team in the field. The Bluejays’ opponent, Rhode Island, allows opponents to shoot just 20.1 percent of their attempts in transition, the fourth lowest mark in the field.
5. Rhode Island also allows opponents to earn just 21.3 percent of their points from three-pointers. The Bluejays tend to rely on the three, getting 32.0 percent of their points from beyond the arc.
6. Saint Mary’s is ranked 14th on KenPom and VCU is ranked 50th, resulting in the site giving the Gaels a 71 percent chance of winning their game.
7. West Virginia relies on forcing turnovers, but possible Second Round opponent Notre Dame has the lowest turnover rate in the country and Princeton has the 11th-lowest.
8. Kansas and Iowa State played each other twice this season. Each team won once on the other’s home floor, and the combined score of the two games was 165-164 in favor of the Jayhawks.
9. But Nevada could be a good match-up with Iowa State, as the Wolfpack are an above average rebounding team, while the Cyclones — with only one regular standing above 6’5” — are below average in both categories.
10. Seton Hall’s Angel Delgado averages 4.9 offensive rebounds per game, leading the nation. Arkansas ranks 326th nationally in defensive rebounding rate.
11. Led by Reggie Lynch, Minnesota has a block rate of 16.2 percent, third-best nationally. Middle Tennessee, though, ranks fifth in the country in avoiding blocks, at 5.8 percent. Read the rest of this entry »

Chances are, if you live east of the Rocky Mountains, you didn’t catch a lot of Pac-12 basketball this season. And we totally get it! When a Pac-12 matchup kicks off at 7:00 pm PST, the time difference makes it nearly impossible to stay up and watch for anyone who isn’t living on the West Coast. This means that while you may have heard plenty about Oregon and Arizona and UCLA throughout the season, you might still be unfamiliar with individual players that aren’t named Dillon Brooks or Lonzo Ball. But don’t worry, we are here to give you a quick primer on each Pac-12 team in the NCAA Tournament field just in time for those last-minute tweaks to your bracket.

USC

Who are the stars?

USC has plenty of talent and a number of players with NBA futures, but they don’t have any true star talent on the roster. Junior point guard Jordan McLaughlin is probably the closest thing. He’s the team’s best player and very much the engine that makes the offense go. A gunner in his first two seasons with the Trojans’ (albeit an accurate one, as he shot better than 40% from beyond the arc), McLaughlin has evolved into an excellent playmaker and defender as well, finishing fourth in the conference in assist rate (31.4) and 12th in steal percentage (2.8). He is most fun to watch on the offensive end of the floor, where he has more than enough handles to attack the rim. He remains the team’s best chance to get a bucket out of an isolation set, so expect to see the ball in his hands a lot tonight.

Chimezie Metu is an NBA prospect because of his extreme athleticism. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Sophomore center Chimezie Metu isn’t a star yet, but he has brightest NBA future of anyone on the roster. Metu averaged more than 14 points and 7 rebounds per game while also providing tremendous rim protection on the defensive end. A legitimate 6’10”, Metu moves extremely well for a player his size, making him a high-upside defender who is versatile enough to step out and guard stretch forwards. He is still quite raw, but is making strides. Metu cut down on fouls over the course of the season and also made huge strides at the free-throw line, improving by 20 percentage points over last season. He still struggles to create his own offense, but his athleticism and ability to run the floor make him a highlight waiting to happen. Read the rest of this entry »

Preseason rankings may seem irrelevant when it comes to college basketball, but history has shown that their predictive value are surprisingly important. For example, as we have shown in this space before, the preseason poll is in fact just as predictive of a run to the Final Four as the current AP Poll. The reasoning behind this phenomenon is that the preseason polls take into account all of the changes that the mathematical models have more difficulty accounting for (i.e. coaching changes, big recruiting classes, injuries, etc.). The conventional wisdom entering the season is actually fairly sophisticated and smart.

Are You Sure You Want to Choose Michigan? (AP)

Given this intuition, let’s examine the teams that defied that wisdom throughout the season and went from unranked in the preseason to ranked in the final AP poll before the NCAA Tournament. Had the preseason polls gotten something wrong? Or did these over-performing teams regress back to their expectations in the postseason? Using the last 10 years of data that includes seed win expectation data from fivethirtyeight.com, I investigated. Of the 97 teams who qualified for analysis, 32 (33%) of those teams outperformed their win expectations in the NCAA Tournament while 65 (67%) underperformed. As a whole, a group that was expected to win 138.8 games over the 10-year sample won just 107. A statistical T-test found this difference statistically significant. In fact, only one team — Kemba Walker’s 2011 National Championship team, Connecticut — even made the Final Four.

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All day on Monday we will roll out our region-by-region analysis for the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Here, Bennet Hayes (@HoopsTraveler) breaks down the South Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC South Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCSouthRegion).

South Region

Favorite: #2 Kentucky (29-5, 16-2 SEC). It’s hard to pick a true favorite when examining the top three seeds in this region, as North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA will all garner buzz as Final Four candidates. However, the Wildcats get the RTC nod as region favorites after a dominant SEC Tournament title run. The Tar Heels are the more experienced unit, but it’s possible that no team in the field can match the talent of these young Wildcats. At the very least, Malik Monk (20.4 PPG) and De’Aaron Fox (16.1 PPG, 4.8 APG) make up the scariest backcourt – freshmen or not – in the entire country, and we’ve heard that guard play matters a little bit this time of year. The Wildcats loom as a favorite in a top-heavy region.

Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox have Kentucky rolling into this NCAA Tournament (Photo: USA Today Sports)

Should They Falter: #1 North Carolina (27-7, 14-4 ACC). The Tar Heels enter the NCAA Tournament with less momentum than Kentucky, but the ACC regular season champions have proved plenty dominant all season long. Whether it was during a three-game romp to the Maui Invitational title in November, or its perfect campaign at the Dean Dome, North Carolina sprinted past opponents like so many other Roy Williams coached teams have before. Justin Jackson (18.1 PPG) evolved into the go-to offensive weapon many thought he would never become, while Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks have manned an extremely effective frontcourt operation. The Tar Heels’ notation as secondary favorites in the region should not be perceived as a slight; this is a very good team that at worst is the 1B to Kentucky’s 1A.

Grossly Overseeded: #5 Minnesota (24-9, 11-7 Big Ten). If you are trying to make sense of Minnesota’s placement on the #5 seed line, do not look at the committee’s S-Curve for clarification. The Gophers are closer to a #4 seed than a #6 at #18 overall, and the slew of teams right behind them – Notre Dame, Iowa State, SMU, Cincinnati – all feel significantly more deserving/scarier than Minneapolis’ favorite team. As is always the case in situations like these, it’s important to note the merit of Minnesota’s season – Richard Pitino turned last year’s disappointment into success faster than any Gopher fan could have hoped – but a #5 seed this is not. Middle Tennessee State stands to benefit, and you don’t have to dig deep into the memory banks to recall a Blue Raiders’ March takedown of a Big Ten foe.

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All day on Monday we will roll out our region-by-region analysis for the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Here, Tommy Lemoine (@hoopthink) breaks down the Midwest Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC Midwest Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCMWRegion).

Midwest Region

The Pressure is on Bill Self (USA Today Images)

Favorite: #1 Kansas (28-4, 16-2 Big 12). Make no mistake—Kansas’ loss to TCU in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals is disconcerting. The Horned Frogs are an NIT team, and the Jayhawks will certainly see better opponents in the Big Dance. But freshman phenom Josh Jackson (16.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG) was suspended for that game, his absence clearly felt on both ends of the court. With college basketball’s best point guard, Frank Mason (20.8 PPG, 5.1 APG), at the helm and Jackson set to return, the Big 12 champion should have no problem regaining momentum. Looking ahead, neither Miami (FL) or Michigan State seem capable of threatening the Jayhawks in the Round of 32, while a potential Sweet Sixteen matchup with Iowa State—which ended Kansas’ 54-game home winning streak in February—could be an ideal revenge spot for Bill Self’s group. Considering #3 seed Oregon is shorthanded and #2 seed Louisville enters the NCAA Tournament in a slump, the Jayhawks’ path to another Final Four is wide open.

Should They Falter: #2 Louisville (24-8, 12-6 ACC). Though Louisville enters Friday having dropped three of its previous five contents, two of those losses were to North Carolina (in Chapel Hill) and Duke, including a narrow loss to the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. Which is to say, the Cardinals are going to be just fine. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that—while its oppressive defense hasn’t been quite as stingy down the stretch—Louisville’s offensive efficiency improved significantly during the second half of conference play. Assuming the ball-movement is crisp and Donovan Mitchell (15.7 PPG), Quentin Snider (12.7 PPG), and Deng Adel (11.9 PPG) don’t all go cold at the same time, Rick Pitino has a sure-fire Final Four contender on his hands. Especially in light of #3 seed Oregon’s recent bad news.

Grossly Overseeded: #9 Michigan State (19-4, 10-8 Big Ten). The vast majority of bracketologists at BracketMatrix.com pegged Michigan State as a #10, #11 or even #12 seed (average: 10.2). Instead, the Spartans received a #9 seed, which is especially strange when you consider that Wisconsin (#8 seed) and Michigan (#7 seed)—each with markedly better resumes and far stronger metrics—were barely treated any better. Perhaps it wouldn’t be as large of an issue were the optics not so bad: Michigan State’s athletic director, Mark Hollis, was this year’s NCAA Selection Committee Chair.

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