We’re a little over a month into the 2011-12 season and most teams have played somewhere in the range of eight to ten games. That’s enough time to get a decent sense as to teams’ potential for the rest of the season, rather than relying on little more than preseason guesswork and conjecture. At the end of October, we went through an exercise analyzing Vegas futures odds and came to the conclusion that North Carolina and Kentucky were the odds-on favorites to cut down the nets next April (a normalized combined total chance of 20%). As of December 15, Vegas still thinks similarly, although with two key differences — first, Kentucky, at +300 and a 14.6% normalized chance to win the title, has moved ahead of North Carolina, who still sits at +350 and now has a 13.0% chance. Secondly, the two favorites have a combined 27.6% chance to win it all according to the oddsmakers, which basically means that if you played the NCAA Tournament four times, either UNC or UK would win it once.

Here are your preseason odds for the sake of reference. Note that these odds came from The Greek and this discussion is for entertainment purposes only. The table below provides the futures odds (e.g., +300), which converts to a percentage chance to win (e.g., 25.0%), but also a normalized change to win if all chances added up to 100%. We also provide a simple up (blue)/down (gray)/even (white) stock measurement based on whether a team’s odds profile has risen or fallen since October. We provide some analysis of this table after the jump.

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1. While the legal system has decided not to get involved with the Xavier–Cincinnati brawl, the fall-out of the brawl may not be over. A Cincinnati columnist is suggesting that the series be cancelled for two years to let things cool off between the two schools. That may seem like a good idea to some observers based on the fight and subsequent post-game comments of some of the players, but it appears that the schools have no intention of suspending the rivalry according to Xavier’s Athletic Director. We tend to agree that suspending the rivalry would be an overreaction, but everybody (from administrators down to team managers) will need to be on their best behavior when these teams meet over the next few years because the college basketball world will be watching them very closely.
2. As usual Luke Winn’s Power Rankings are filled with interesting statistical nuggets and as we have said before we look at these more for the information than the rankings since rankings are essentially useless (uh, unless they come from RTC). The most controversial part is an analysis that shows that statistically Kentucky is a little better defensively when Anthony Davis is on the bench than when he is on the floor overall this season. This trend disappears (and actually reverses quite dramatically) in games against top 25 teams, but the analysis managed to create a mini-controversy online yesterday. Of course, this started a verbal sparring match between those who embrace statistical analysis and the college basketball Luddites. As we have said before the numbers and analysis are there for your consumption. How you choose to interpret them (or discard them) is up to you. Blindly accepting the figures because they are out there is no better than ignoring them completely. We prefer to sit somewhere in the middle where we look at the statistical analysis and then try to reconcile it with what we see with our eyes. If the two are incongruent, either we are missing something or someone is doing something funny with the numbers.
3. The always entertaining Mark Titus, leader of the Club Trillion movement, is out with his latest article for Grantland ranking his top 12 teams in the country. It is an interesting list to say the least and we have a feeling that Ohio State fans won’t be too happy with him, but there are some interesting points in there including the decision by Ohio State and Kentucky to schedule very tough first road games coming back to bite them, which is something that was largely overlooked by the national media. Honestly, though, we think his thought process on his #1 team is a little simplistic unless he is being sarcastic in which case he is doing a very bad job at conveying that. Anyways, as you would expect with Titus it is an amusing read that is worth flipping through to get some insight from a former college basketball “player” on the top teams in the country.
4. While its member institutions are handling out multi-million dollar contracts every few days to coaches with strong track records of failure, the NCAA is still trying to figure out what to do for compensation for its athletes. For now it appears as if they have hit an impasse as they decided to suspend discussion on the proposed $2,000 stipend until January. The issue will be readdressed when the NCAA’s Board of Directors meets next month after 125 schools voted to override its automatic adoption over the four following issues: “how quickly it was implemented, perceived impact on competitive equity, application of the allowance for student-athletes in equivalency sports, and implications for Title IX.” We suspect that like many other bigger economic problems, the NCAA like other bigger institutions will kick this can down the road to be dealt with another day.
5. We would like wish our favorite malcontent of the 2011-12 season Reeves Nelson a fond farewell from the college basketball world as the recently dismissed UCLA big man will be taking his talents to Lithuania. We don’t have any more details at this time as a report earlier in the day cited Nelson’s father as saying that his son was heading to Europe, but would not say more until a contract was signed as the details were still being negotiated. We have to say it has been an interesting ride with Reeves during his brief time at UCLA and will leave you with this gem about how he plans on taking care of his mother.

Tonight’s Lede. Whether you’re a student-athlete feeling the stress of exams or a fan of those players ready to pull your eyelids out with no excitement on the tube this week, the worst is nearly over. On Saturday we’ll have a full slate on the schedule and next week there will be a lot more action around the country in a mad rush before the Christmas holiday weekend. Let’s jump into what little there was going on tonight, secure in the thought that the worst is indeed over…

Dunkdafied. Oregon State’s Jared Cunningham didn’t have the best shooting night, but one of his two buckets on the night more than made up for it…

Tonight’s Quick Hits...

• Oregon State’s 8-2 Start. Sometimes it’s easy to forget just how down certain programs have been for so long, but Oregon State is one of those schools. With tonight’s easy win over Howard, the Beavers moved to 8-2 on the season. That record, a good but not exceptional mark for mid-December, represents the best start to a season in Corvallis since the 1984-85 season. That was last season before the shot clock, folks. Read the rest of this entry »

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Gonzaga and Oral Roberts should be the most competitive game on a short Thursday slate.  Let’s check out the action.

Robert Sacre should have a big game against Oral Roberts

Oral Roberts at Gonzaga – 9:00PM EST on Root Sports (**)

• Oral Roberts has proven to be a very solid offensive rebounding team to this point in the season. They rank 14th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (40.5%). Their ability to grab boards will be a key factor as they will be outsized down low against Gonzaga’s Robert Sacre. Keep an eye on Oral Roberts’ offensive rebounding numbers. Since Oral Roberts is not a great shooting team (49.2% eFG) and they have a tendency to turn the ball over, these empty possession can only be mitigated by solid offensive rebounding. If Sacre and Elias Harris are grabbing boards, Oral Roberts will have a tough night.
• Gonzaga comes into the game with back-to-back losses against Illinois and Michigan State.  Luckily, Mark Few’s team has had five days to prep at home for Oral Roberts. With strong three-point shooting and strong rebounding, the Zags should be able to win the game. Oral Roberts has a solid perimeter defense however. Their losses have come to teams with strong two-point shooting, which Gonzaga does not have. Again, keep an eye on Sacre’s and Harris’ ability to convert in the paint.
• While both teams struggle with turnovers, the key really comes down to field goal defense. Both teams allow over 50% eFG. Sacre and Harris should create room on the outside for the Gonzaga shooters. If they are able to bury three-pointers at their season average of 40%, the Bulldogs will win. Oral Roberts needs to continue to limit threes, limit empty possessions, and hit those twos. It will be tough however since Gonzaga has had five days rest and is playing at the Kennel.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2014
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

1. In a recent interview with a local radio station, Purdue coach Matt Painter had some interesting things to say about last weekend’s Xavier-Cincinnati brawl. He laid a considerable amount of blame on the officials working the game for allowing things to escalate to the point of on-court mayhem (“experienced officials and guys who have control of games, they handle it, take care of it early and it’s not an issue […] to me, it was avoidable.”), but he also took some candid shots at XU’s players for their physical style of play and running mouths. “Right away, from watching film, they talk. They talk a lot. That was one of the first things we talked about in the scouting report (to our players) was don’t get caught up in that. In the game, I’m talking to officials about their guys coming running on the court and (bumping into, pushing) our guys coming off a time out and the referees look at me like I’m crazy. I go back and watch the film, and it’s easy to see and they just ignored it.” Cincinnati has rightfully taken the brunt of this week’s criticism for its role in the brawl, and much of the associated vitriol with UC well predates the Mick Cronin era, but if you listen to Painter, maybe fans and media should take a closer look at how the Musketeers are composing themselves on the court too.
2. Well, at least he didn’t shove a guy to the ground, instigate a full-on brawl between two teams, and subsequently refer to his squad as a bunch of ‘gangstas’ and talk about ‘zip[ping] ’em up” when discussing the other team. No, New Mexico State guard Christian Kabongo (cousin of more-heralded Myck, at Texas), is guilty of grabbing his crotch area twice during a recent game against UTEP and has been suspended indefinitely as a result of his transgression. Kabongo is a significant loss to the Aggies, even in the short term, as he brings averages of 16/4/4 APG to the table for Marvin Menzies’ team. Just imagine how long he’d have to sit out if he was any better.
3. With news Wednesday that the Hamilton County (OH) prosecutor will not pursue criminal charges stemming from last weekend’s brawl between Cincinnati and Xavier, it appears that we’re finally putting this ugly incident behind us. Had charges been filed, they would have most likely come against Cincinnati’s Yancy Gates and Cheikh Mbodj for their respective punch and stomp to the face/head of Xavier center Kenny Frease. But prosecutor Joe Deters (a law enforcement name if ever there was one) said that he was satisfied that Frease’s recent outreach to Gates was met with a subsequent apology and, among other factors, his mea culpa contributed to Deters’ decision to not pursue the case. Historically speaking, US criminal law as a general rule has shied away from imposing jurisdiction on athletes during the bounds of competition, but there have been some precedents, particularly in the NHL, where that is not the case.
4. While on the subject of legality, the NCAA‘s new rule allowing conferences to offer $2,000 stipends to next year’s recruits is in jeopardy after 97 of the 345 Division I institutions have signed a petition that will force the organization into a reconsideration of the measure at its upcoming January meetings. If 28 more schools sign the petition in the next 11 days to get to 125 institutions, then the legislation will be automatically suspended until further review or modification. Perhaps unsurprisingly, much of the support for rescission is reportedly coming from the non-BCS football schools whose budgets are far below its peers who can better afford up to a $2 million annual price tag for its scholarship athletes. As we wrote a couple of months ago when this news first came out, “this policy initiative could be another step toward the permanent stratification of college basketball between the haves and have-nots.” This petition to the NCAA from the have-nots clearly bears this out. If you’re interested in more analysis on this topic, USA Today‘s Christine Brennan skewers the idea in her commentary published Wednesday.
5. SI writers Seth Davis and Luke Winn are going a little crazy with the “breakout” players angle this month. Recall that last week Davis published his list of 10 breakout sophomores; this week he’s decided to give us his list of eight breakout juniors (plus a mailbag). Not to be outdone, Winn comes correct with his list of five breakout seniors! If we see an article on breakout graduate students next week, we’re coming to the Sports Illustrated offices and with a sole intent of burning the place down. All kidding aside, we might have added juniors CJ Harris (Wake Forest), Chase Tapley (San Diego State) and Isaiah Canaan (Murray State) to Davis’ list, and Jae Crowder (Marquette) and Noah Hartsock (BYU) to the Winn’s. Give both pieces a read and see what you think.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. He attended last night’s Wisconsin @ Milwaukee game and filed this report.

Memo to Wisconsin fans: don’t worry about Jordan Taylor.

Despite hitting a dagger three with under a minute left, last night’s performance in the Badgers 60-54 win at Milwaukee (5-14 FG) was the latest in a long line of off-shooting nights for Taylor so far this season. The preseason All-American has yet to top 18 points in a single game, forcing role players such as Ben Brust, Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans to handle a larger chunk of the scoring load.

Taylor's shooting slump is bound to end very soon

But it’s the percentage decrease that’s truly frightening. His FG% has plummeted dramatically from 43% as a junior to 36% as a senior. Taylor’s three-point (43% to 33%) and free throw (83% to 70%) marksmanship has also dipped. Even his turnovers are higher than last season’s remarkable rate and the 0-10 FG night against UNLV was certainly an eye-opener.

Still, the Badgers sit firmly entrenched in the top 25 with a 9-2 record on the season. They were a handful of threes away from upsetting North Carolina on their home floor. They controlled tempo and easily dispatched of a top-25 caliber UNLV team. They pulled away and won by 17 against BYU. Every low-major Division I team on their schedule has been no match for Wisconsin.

That’s right, 9-2 and in the top 25 with their preseason All-American, the centerpiece of their offense and one of the single most important players in college basketball shooting a meager 36%.

That simply won’t last. Unless that minor ankle surgery over the summer is causing him ongoing problems or he’s hiding a new injury of some sort, Taylor’s shooting slump will end any day now. He’s way too good of a shooter, finisher and playmaker for his numbers to dip that suddenly. His 18.1 PPG and 43% mark from three last season didn’t happen by accident.

Although one could never tell Taylor is struggling by the way he constantly encourages teammates and plays with that easygoing, free-flowing pace, his emotional reaction after sinking that game-clinching three did suggest he was feeling some pressure. He knows he must step up and carry a team that, on some nights, has a very difficult time scoring on a consistent basis.

“I’m just trying to stay aggressive, stay confident,” Taylor said after the game. “I think I shot alright from the two areas I’ve been struggling most from three and free throws. I just couldn’t finish around the rim so it’s the same thing. It’s just a mental thing, mental toughness. Just got to hang in there and do a better job and be tougher about it.”

Berggren still has all the confidence in the world in his senior leader. I’m sure if you polled the rest of this year’s Badgers, they’d wholeheartedly agree.

“How can you not want a guy like that taking that shot?” Berggren said. “He showed at the end there, when it comes down to it, we all have confidence in him. I know he still has confidence to make that big shot and I think the majority of the time he’s going to come through for us and perform when we need him.”

The big question heading into this season was whether Wisconsin could find a secondary scoring option to relieve some of the pressure from Taylor. The silver lining from his slump is that other players have taken turns shouldering the load, whether it’s Brust making all seven of his threes against UNLV or Evans chipping in with 16 points and eight rebounds in the hard-fought win at Milwaukee.

Taylor will come around. There’s no reason to think otherwise. With their role players showing they’re capable of stepping up when called upon and another stalwart Badger defense stifling opponents, Wisconsin is once again a threat to finish near the top of the Big Ten.

Just wait until Jordan Taylor gets going.

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Cincinnati plays its first game since the Xavier brawl as Dead Week continues around the country. You should also keep an eye on the Iona/Richmond game at 3 PM but that one won’t be found on television.

Cincinnati at Wright State – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN2 (**)

• Cincinnati will only have six key contributors available when it heads to Wright State tonight. The Bearcats will be without Yancy Gates, Cheikh Mbodj, Ge’Lawn Guyn, and Octavius Ellis due to their suspensions stemming from the fight with Xavier on Saturday. Sean Kilpatrick and Dion Dixon will have to step up in a big way for Cincinnati in order to win this game on the road. Wright State is not a good team, but the Bearcats have only one player taller than 6’5” available tonigt. For a team that can’t afford to speed up the game, that’s not a good combination for Cincinnati. Kilpatrick, Dixon, and point guard Cashmere Wright all can score, but the other Bearcats are all unproven. With Gates and company out, Cincinnati is missing a combined 22.2 PPG and 14.6 RPG in this game.
• Wright State’s biggest advantages in this game are home court and height. Cincinnati’s players may be rattled playing a road game after the suspensions while the Raiders have three players 6’7” or taller, including 6’10” A.J. Pacher. He’s been plagued by foul trouble all season but if he manages to stay on the court for any extended period of time, Pacher will cause problems for Cincinnati in the paint. Billy Donlon’s top scorer is point guard Julius Mays, who is averaging 10.2 PPG. Wright State doesn’t score a lot of points due to its brutal offense but Mays does hit on 39.4% of his treys. Ordinarily, Wright State wouldn’t have much of a chance to beat Cincinnati. Given the Bearcats’ personnel issues, the Raiders have a solid chance this time.

Mick Cronin Will Need To Find A Way To Win Without His Best Players Tonight

• Expect this game to be played at an incredibly slow pace. Both teams struggle to put the ball in the basket so this has the makings of a close game played in the 40s or 50s. For Wright State to win, it must assert itself inside from the start, limit Kilpatrick, and force some turnovers. The Raiders rank #35 in defensive turnover percentage, certainly a respectable number. Should this game come down to the wire, Cincinnati is actually a better free throw shooting team without the suspended players on the court. Kilpatrick, Wright and Dixon all shoot over 70% from the stripe. With all of the uncertainty around Cincinnati, we’re not sure how this game will play out. If forced to pick, we would give the slightest of edges to the home squad.

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1. Coming into the season Kansas recruit Ben McLemore was one of the most highly touted freshmen in the country. However, Jayhawk fans dreams of having McLemore help carry their team along with Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor this year were derailed when he was ruled a partial qualifier and would have to sit out this season. Things got a little worse for McLemore yesterday as he was arrested after failing to show up to court on a charge of being a minor in possession of alcohol. We doubt that much will come of this extra charge although it doesn’t reflect well on McLemore and his maturation even if it was during finals week at Kansas.
2. It looks like Jim Boeheim may end up getting involved in the Bernie Fine case after all, as the Syracuse coach was named along with the university in a suit brought by Fine’s accusers as defendants in a defamation case. According to a press conference yesterday, the basis for the lawsuit is the comments that Boeheim made after the allegations were made public, where he essentially said the accusers were seeking money. At the time, we said that while we understand Boeheim’s desire to defend his friend and longtime assistant, it was a poor public relations move and could lead to trouble in the future. Boeheim later apologized for his tone and words (two weeks after the initial statement), but now the lawsuit is being brought against Boeheim and the school as a result. If the case did not already have a circus-like feel to it, it will now have an extra element of that with the plaintiff’s attorney being Gloria Allred, a woman who has handled numerous high-profile cases and is one of the most prominent attorneys in the country.
3. Ohio State may be without the services of unanimous preseason All-American Jared Sullinger for a while longer as he continues to battle back spasms. The Buckeye staff is still unsure when Sullinger will be able to return and he may sit out today’s game against the Spartans (relax, it’s South Carolina-Upstate not Michigan State). According to reports from around the team, Sullinger appears to be getting better and should be back relatively soon. The Buckeyes should be fine without him as they don’t really have a test until after Christmas when they play Northwestern and Indiana. Until then the schedule is pretty manageable even without Sullinger dominating the paint.
4. Looking for a unique Christmas gift this year? How about a personalized voicemail greeting from Kansas coach Bill Self? It could be yours for just $5 thanks to a charity that Self is running with his wife with the proceeds helping to pay for Christmas gifts for Lawrence-area families that need assistance. Your $5 donation will get you a ticket into a raffle (more tickets means a greater chance of winning) and one name will be drawn from the “giant peach basket” (cute, right?). As the charity notes, before Missouri fans get any funny ideas (ok, they don’t name Missouri explicitly) Self reserves the right not to do this for messages that are “potentially questionable”.
5. If you are looking a great personal interest story and maybe even a coach to pull for on a personal level, we highly recommend this feature on Iona coach Tim Cluess. Over the next 3-4 months you will hear a lot about his Iona basketball team, which is by far the best team in the New York City metro area, but if you just focus on their play you will be missing a major part of what makes Tim Cluess so intriguing. While on the surface Cluess comes from a privileged background where athletic talent is abundant his life has been full of personal tragedy as two of his brothers died of cancer at an early age (26 and 33). The piece is long, but it is well worth your time and if you only read one thing today we suggest you read this.

Tonight’s Lede. It’s day two of Finals Week and, although tonight wasn’t as dry to the bone as Monday was, it was still rather light around the college basketball world. Still, a couple dozen games included a handful of ranked teams and even a questionable RTC in a place called Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Let’s jump into it…

Your Watercooler Moment. Belmont Loses to Middle Tennessee — Are Their At-Large Chances Kaput?

MTSU Fans RTC'd After Beating Belmont Tonight (Nashville Tennesseean)

Middle Tennessee State and Belmont tipped it off for the second time already this season — in a scheduling quirk, the two teams als0 played on November 20 at MTSU, a double-overtime Belmont win — but this time, it was the home Blue Raiders who held on for the close victory, 65-62. As we discussed in tonight’s Night Line, Belmont now has three losses in its first nine games, and even though the Nashville school remains every Pomeroy/Sagarin disciple’s mid-major darling (the Bruins are currently #26 in Pomeroy, #31 in Sagarin), it appears increasingly difficult to map out a scenario where the Bruins could earn an at-large NCAA bid should they lose in the Atlantic Sun Tournament next March. The A-Sun’s next best team is Mercer, rated #140 in Pomeroy, and the only other team in the top 100 on Belmont’s schedule is C-USA’s Marshall, which the Bruins will play twice (12/19 at Marshall; 12/29 at Belmont). Obviously, Rick Byrd’s team needs to win both of those — no easy task — and run the table in the Atlantic Sun to even get serious consideration for an at-large. Its non-conference SOS is currently rated #47 by Pomeroy, but it’s unlikely to rise much more than it is now, with each of its remaining four non-conference opponents ranking below that mark. Furthermore, its overall SOS will get progressively destroyed by 18+ games against Atlantic Sun teams during January through March. One of the peculiarities of the NCAA Tournament system is that a really good team like Belmont could find itself the victim of a catch-22 in trying to schedule as well as you can (Duke, Memphis) without actually winning any of the games. Yet, their hands are tied in that they’re unlikely to get many power conference teams to play them anywhere else. We’ll most definitely be rooting for the Bruins to get back to the NCAAs in March, but they’ll certainly have a lot of pressure on them to win that conference tourney again.

Tonight’s Quick Hits...

• Read the rest of this entry »

Evan Jacoby is an RTC columnist. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s slate of games.

Coming off a 30-win season and returning nine players who averaged at least 10 minutes per game, Belmont was expected to be the next mid-major to make its way on to the national scene this year. After a tremendous season-opening game in Cameron Indoor Stadium in which they nearly took down Duke, the Bruins left a great first impression on the nation. But fast-forward to Tuesday night when the Atlantic Sun darlings lost another close road game (at Middle Tennessee State), and this team still has yet to produce a signature non-conference win on its resume. While Belmont consistently has the look of an NCAA Tournament team, it seems that they’ll have to earn their invitation to the Big Dance the traditional way, by winning the conference tournament.

Belmont Hasn't Held on For Any Signature Wins (AP/G. Broome)

Rick Byrd’s team has now squandered three excellent chances for quality wins, and an at-large bid seems nearly out of the question, regardless of how the Bruins play the rest of the season. Belmont played Duke to a classic season-opening one-point loss, but followed up that game with a poor effort at Memphis in which they allowed 97 points to a team now falling fast. The Bruins held on to beat this same Middle Tennessee State team after two overtimes on November 20, but Tuesday’s rematch saw their opponent come out victorious, 65-62. MTSU  at 10-2 is a  solid team and likely the class of the Sun Belt Conference, so a road sweep of the Blue Raiders would have looked impressive on their resume. Instead, Belmont now can only boast of a split against MTSU and a close loss at Duke as their non-conference highlights thus far.

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