Merry Marchmas to us. We’re down to 64 — nothing more needs to be said.

Eliminations (03.18.15)

• Boise State
• North Florida

And here we are. For those of us who grew up from around 1985 to 2001, the mathebracketal beauty of a 64-team field is what the NCAA Tournament is all about. Today and tomorrow are a mixture of so many highs and lows that it’s impossible to keep track of it all. We won’t be able to do that, but we can at least get you ready. Here’s a preview on each of today’s afternoon games. Enjoy the Madness.

#3 Notre Dame vs. #14 Northeastern – Midwest Region Second Round (at Pittsburgh, PA) – 12:15 PM EST on CBS.

All-American Jerian Grant Starts Things Off Today (USA Today Sports)

Notre Dame enters NCAA Tournament play fresh off a thrilling run to the ACC Tournament title. Waiting for the Irish in Pittsburgh is Northeastern. The Huskies enter the tournament after winning three games in three days to take home the CAA Tournament crown and earn its first tournament bid since 1991. Bill Coen’s squad is led into action by senior forward Scott Eatherton, who leads the team in both points per game (14.6) and rebounds per game (6.4). Northeastern also has some talent at the guard position with junior point guard David Walker, who scores 13.4 points and dishes out 3.5 assists per contest. While the Huskies do have talent, they do not have enough to stop the Notre Dame offensive attack. Seniors Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton lead the way for the Irish, who are second in the country in field goal percentage at 51 percent. Grant and Connaughton have gotten it done for Mike Brey’s squad all season, but the Irish appear to be even more lethal now due to the emergence of sophomore guards Demetrius Jackson and Steve Vasturia. Notre Dame has had its fair share of bad luck in the NCAA Tournament, but that should not be case Thursday afternoon. Expect the Irish to  ride their explosive offense to a comfortable victory.

The RTC Certified Pick: Notre Dame.

#3 Iowa State vs. #14 UAB – South Region Second Round (at Louisville, KY) – 12:40 PM ET on truTV.

Iowa State and UAB commence South region action Thursday afternoon. Fred Hoiberg’s team underwent their annual roster overhaul last summer, but the end result – a team whose fast-paced, hyper-efficient offense leads to wins – saw no change. Iowa State’s national offensive efficiency rankings the last three seasons, including their current mark: 6th, 6th, and 7th. UAB’s primary task has to be slowing down the tempo and effectiveness of that Cyclone attack, a pursuit in which the Blazers are unlikely to be effective. There is little in the statistical profile that suggests they have the extra gear needed to keep pace with Iowa State, whose 15-6 Big 12 mark was about as it good as it got in the Big 12 this season. UAB was not the Conference USA regular season champion (Louisiana Tech was), but the Blazers gloomy Tournament outlook is a subtle reminder of how far their league has fallen. Sending one team to the Tournament, and on the #14 seed line, would have been unthinkable three years ago. It’s the unfortunate reality of 2015, however, and it should get only more uncomfortable after Thursday, when Iowa State will likely to dispatch an overmatched UAB team from the Tournament field.

The RTC Certified Pick: Iowa State.

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While it’s unlikely that all seven Big Ten teams will still be around at the end of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, each has something to gain from even just one win. None of the matchups on Thursday and Friday are overly imposing, and in actuality, many of them seem to be pretty equal. The Round of 32 could be a different story, but here’s what each team has on the line with a quality opening weekend performance:

Troy Williams will need to play well for Indiana to advance. (Chris Howell/Herald Times)

• Indiana: This NCAA Tournament appearance is all about showing that the program hasn’t hit a wall under head coach Tom Crean and it’s about quieting the critics that have been out in full force this year. A win over a Wichita State squad with plenty of excellent experience in four starters who made the Final Four two seasons ago would be a nice victory for a team with no seniors and almost no size. Winning a second game against fellow blue-blood Kansas would give the Hoosiers valuable March experience to build upon with a great majority of the team scheduled to return next season.
• Iowa: Iowa can regain some of the credibility it lost from last season’s nosedive. The Hawkeyes still have some problems with consistency although they’ve been slightly better in closing out the 2014-15 campaign. Fran McCaffery‘s team avoided the First Four this time around but it still has a difficult opener against the Atlantic 10 regular season champion, Davidson. Just being back in March Madness, though, isn’t good enough for Hawkeyes fans. Mostly the same cast of characters played significant minutes in last season’s opening round loss to Tennessee, so winning a game or two here will show that this talented crew didn’t underachieve during its time in Iowa City. McCaffery doesn’t have to face the same amount of pressure that someone like Crean does at Indiana, but losing early in March once again won’t exactly help him either.
• Maryland: The Terrapins were ranked for most of the season, eventually making their way into the top 10 at the end of the year. Despite how Maryland fared in the polls, they ended up with only a #4 seed and have a challenging road to the Sweet Sixteen. This means that they need to get to the second weekend to show the committee and others that they were justifiably ranked where they were. They were the second best team in the conference for much of the season, but an early flame-out in March would give the critics of Big Ten basketball plenty of ammunition in saying that the league didn’t deserve seven bids. The Terps need to avoid the upset bug and make a solid run.

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While the Big 12 went wire to wire this season as the top conference in America, according to KenPom and the RPI, its postseason results over the last decade continue to cast a shadow over the league’s legitimacy. Since 2005, the Big 12 is tied for fourth in NCAA Tournament wins, tied for fifth in Sweet Sixteen appearances and tied for fourth in Final Four berths. In the last 10 years, 17 Big 12 teams have underperformed relative to their seeds compared with just 12 teams that have overperformed. Although the season-long metrics are more reliable from an analytical perspective than chaotic NCAA Tournament results, the postseason is valued more heavily when it comes to both bar room debates and television contracts. Fortunately for the conference this season, it propelled seven teams into the Big Dance, so there are plenty of opportunities to quiet the skeptics. Here’s how each of those teams can help the conference flip the script.

The Mayor can rescue the Big 12 from years of tournament disappointment with a run to Indianapolis. (Eric Gay/AP)

• Iowa State: Fred Hoiberg has turned the Iowa State program around and then some in his five years running the team, but the time is ripe for him to raise the status even higher by adding a trip to the Final Four — which would be Iowa State’s first since 1944 — to his already-impressive resume. The Cyclones are among the hottest teams in the country but they’ll need to keep up their hot shooting and not rely on their proven ability to mount comebacks in order to capitalize on the good favor they’ve curried.
• Kansas: The Jayhawks limp into the Big Dance with Perry Ellis, Landen Lucas and Frank Mason at less than 100 percent. If that weren’t bad enough, they’re planning to be without Cliff Alexander and have notched just three wins in their last eight games away from Allen Fieldhouse (and one of those road wins was in Lubbock). Oh, and they received by far the worst Tournament draw of any #2 seed, facing a potential Elite Eight game against juggernaut Kentucky. As terrific a coach as Bill Self is, the odds of him extracting a 2012 type of run to the championship game from this team are long. A ride to the regional final would be impressive, though, especially if the Jayhawks can knock off local rival Wichita State in the process.
• Oklahoma: The Sooners have been snake-bitten in the Lon Kruger years, assuming the role of first round upset victim in their last two NCAA Tournament appearances. While Oklahoma needs to get over that hump, this team is Kruger’s best one yet so the expectations don’t stop at simply winning one game. A pilgrimage to the Sweet Sixteen would give Kruger the distinction of taking four different programs that deep, but Oklahoma’s excellent defense and Buddy Hield‘s scoring ability make the Sooners a threat to play even deeper, possibly slaying two monsters in Virginia and Villanova on the way there.

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Four Pac-12 teams are going dancing. And we’ve got four Burning Questions. Coincidence? Yeah, probably. But, below, you’ll get takes from Adam Butler and Andrew Murawa about what to expect from the teams around the Conference of Champions this week and beyond.

Q: So, UCLA’s in the Tournament. On a scale of 1 to Holy Crap Really! how surprised are you. And can they do anything with their good fortune?

Adam Butler: I don’t know why but when the Bruins’ name was called on Sunday I wasn’t all that shocked. It makes no sense because they haven’t impressed by the numbers or the eyeball tests. But at the same time I like so many things about this team in a tournament setting. They’re the only Pac-12 team to keep things close on two occasions with Arizona and – while I don’t love moral victories – that’s something. Of course the committee doesn’t pay attention to any of the storylines so it’s not like Larry Brown ever coached UCLA or anything. I remain concerned about the Bruins’ cohesiveness but if all I need is to win one game, it’s hard not to at least be somewhat impressed with Kevon Looney and Norman Powell.

Yep, we had the same reaction, Bryce. (AP)

Andrew Murawa: I’m definitely all the way over on the Holy Crap Really! side of things. I just don’t get how the Bruins have done anything to deserve playing in this Tournament. They have home wins over Oregon and Utah which are, yeah, whatever, fine. Beyond that, the biggest smiley-face on their report card is only losing by an average of eight points in their two games against Arizona. Is that all you need to do these days? Play in a big conference and lose to good teams? All that said, when the Bruins have things clicking, they’re pretty fearsome. Tony Parker is coming along in the post, Kevon Looney makes “Wow!” plays on a regular basis, Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton have proven themselves capable of big games. And Norman Powell is just playing lights out right now. This is a team that could beat SMU by 20. Or go 10 minutes without a bucket in the second half and fade into obscurity.

Q: Oregon gets an #8 seed and has to play Oklahoma State in Omaha. Did the Ducks get screwed?

AM: Given the lack of any truly notable wins on their non-conference slate, the Ducks’ relatively strong finish to the season in a weak Pac-12 shouldn’t really hold much sway. And it didn’t. But the fact that they’ve got to go to Big 12 country to play a Cowboys team that really didn’t do a whole lot to earn much good favor can’t sit well either.

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March Madness is finally upon us, and we here at RTC are here to make everything a little bit easier for you. From the First Four until One Shining Moment, we’ll be dropping daily tidbits of knowledge regarding the teams in each region.

Midwest Region

Karl-Anthony Towns Was Named an All-American. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

• Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns was named a freshman All-American by the USBWA. Despite playing just over 20 minutes per game for the undefeated Wildcats, Towns averaged 9.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. Crazy numbers on a per-40 basis.
• Cincinnati has been a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament but is it a basketball school or a football school? You decide.
• This may be Buffalo‘s first time in the NCAA Tourney, but don’t tell their fans that. The Bulls’ faithful have responded to their team’s success – Buffalo will “definitely sell out” its allotment, according to associate athletic director Todd Garzarelli.
• In Valparaiso, the Drews are “more than just basketball royalty, they are the first family.” Having already won three regular season Horizon League championships, coach Bryce Drew loves being a part of the program that has family – including himself – has given so much to over the years.
• With Seinfeld creator Larry David and Google co-founder Sergey Brin on its roster, Maryland took home a title in a March Madness bracket determined by each school’s alumni.
• Butler loves to recruit players who can shoot, so how has junior Roosevelt Jones only attempted three jump shots over the past three years? Jones may not be able to shoot, but he’s found a way to make his “floater” game work.
• Now that Texas is in the Big Dance, it sees its adversity this season as a positive. “That’s one of the advantages we have,” [sophomore Kendal] Yancy said. “We’ve seen everything that can possibly come to us.”
• According to stat guru Ken Pomeroy, Notre Dame has the second-best offense in the country. That’s great, but will its defense leave the Irish susceptible to an early round exit this March?
• New Mexico State coach Marvin Menzies is confident about his team, but he’s being realistic about facing a blue-blood program in Kansas. “They’re a big-time team, obviously a big-time program,” Menzies said of Kansas. “Great coaching, great coaching staff; it’s an honor to be able to play in this environment.”
• The Jayhawks may not have landed a #1 seed this year, but they did come in as the second most valuable college basketball program, according to Forbes. Kansas basketball is worth $35.4 Million, ranking behind only Louisville.

West Region

• After being out for the past two months with a broken foot, Wisconsin point guard Traevon Jackson is finally practicing. It’s unclear whether Jackson will regain his starting spot from sophomore Bronson Koenig – who has played very well in Jackson’s absence – but regardless, adding quality depth never hurts.
• Oklahoma State may have gotten a little complacent this season, according to its star Le’Bryan Nash, and the key to success in the coming weeks will be regaining that chip on their shoulder. “I mean, sometimes when people are always picked low, they get excited for their success and don’t know how to handle success. Sometimes, we didn’t know how to handle it,” Nash said.
• Wofford has never won a game in NCAA Tournament, but having been there four out of the last six years, the Terriers just might be due. According to coach Mike Young, “We’ve got a team that’s done it. That’s been there. That’s not going to be in awe of the moment. They will know what they’ve got to do to put themselves in position to win. We’ll be in a much better frame of mind this time around, I feel certain.”
• Though North Carolina will go as Marcus Paige goes, the emergence of freshmen Joel Berry and Justin Jackson will be critical to the Tar Heels’ success.
• For Harvard’s freshman guard Zach Yoshor, balancing basketball and his devout Jewish faith has been tough. Though he observes the Jewish Sabbath, he bends the rules when he has to travel for basketball. “It was a really rough decision. I just decided it was something I wanted to do,” Yoshor explained by telephone on Monday. “I knew if I wanted to play, I’d have to travel on Shabbat.”
• Down 17 at the half, Ole Miss pulled off a stunning comeback in the First Four on Tuesday night. Behind transfers Stefan Moody and MJ Rhett, the Rebels will, somehow, live to fight another day.
• As Xavier looks to make a run in the Tourney, its seniors are especially driven. “Like Dee [Davis] was telling me the other day, we only have one more loss in us. It’s one loss and you’re done,” [Matt] Stainbrook said. “So we’re trying to win as many games as we can.”
• While John Heard and Austin Mills found their way to the Baylor basketball program in different ways, the two walk-ons were fortunate to be rewarded with scholarships for this semester.
• Ohio State coach Thad Matta may be the all time winningest coach in Buckeyes history, but this season has been a rough one. However, Matta and his team will have a chance to turn it around when they face VCU on Thursday.
• Arizona hasn’t lost since February 7, and much of the Wildcats’ success has been because of junior forward Brandon Ashley. During the Pac-12 Tournament, Ashley averaged nearly 20 points and six rebounds per game. And as we head into the home stretch of the season, Ashley’s contributions will be necessary for the Wildcats’ success.

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The First Round/Opening Round/Play-In Games/Mild Annoyance of the NCAA Tournament continues tonight, getting under way at 6:40 PM tonight on truTV (go ahead, try to remember where that channel is again). From 66 to 16 in the next five days… let’s analyze the final two play-in games this evening.

#16 Robert Morris vs. #16 North Florida — South Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 6:40 pm ET on truTV.

North Florida Will Play Their First Division I Postseason Game Wednesday — Don’t Be Surprised If They Parlay Their Debut Into A Friday Matchup With Duke. (ActionNewsJax.com)

Robert Morris, tournament champions of the NEC, will take on Atlantic Sun regular season and tournament champions North Florida in Dayton tonight. This game will play undercard to the “Dayton in Dayton” drama (co-starring Boise State) set to unfold later. The winner will make the move into the 64-team bracket to take on Duke in Charlotte on Friday. Robert Morris had to know it was headed to Dayton the moment the Colonials upset St. Francis (NY) and earned the automatic berth, but North Florida might be surprised at its appointment in Dayton. After a 23-11 season that featured a December victory at Purdue, the Ospreys are now the first Atlantic Sun team to ever receive the First Four assignment. An RPI in the 160s had to be the incriminating component of the North Florida resume, even as their KenPom ranking of #127 values them ahead of an Eastern Washington team that netted a #13 seed. The Ospreys’ big lineup – five of seven regulars are 6’6” or taller – will serve them well against the smaller Colonials, but it’s 6’1” Dallas Moore who makes North Florida go. The all-Atlantic Sun performer averaged 15.4 points and 3.9 assists per game in leading UNF to that pair of Atlantic Sun titles. Expect Moore and the Ospreys to look by the bracketing slight and embrace the unique opportunity that a First Four can offer. Just three days after accepting the program’s inaugural NCAA Tournament bid, North Florida should be in good shape to snag its first Tournament victory.

The RTC Certified Pick: North Florida

#11 Boise State vs. #11 Dayton — East Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 9:10 pm ET on truTV.

Dayton Plays at Home in Tonight’s First Four. (Getty)

These teams are very similar in two notable respects: Both overcame key personnel losses early in the season and both were rooked by the Selection Committee. Dayton – which dismissed two of its most important frontcourt players back in December – somehow became the last at-large team above the cut-line, despite most bracketologists projecting the Flyers as a #8 or #9 seed. As a result, Boise State – which lost shooting guard Anthony Drmic less than one month into the season – must now win a true road game (at University of Dayton Arena) in order to advance. If this matchup were played on a neutral floor, it would be hard to figure which squad has the edge; the Broncos and Flyers are ranked 39th and 40th in KenPom, respectively, and each sits firmly among the top-75 teams in America in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Boise State’s Derrick Marks (19.3 PPG) will be the best offensive player on the floor, a supremely talented scorer with a vastly-improved outside shot (44% 3FG), while Dayton boasts an entire lineup of guys adept at beating opponents off the dribble and earning trips to the free throw line (third-highest free throw rate in college hoops). Considering the Flyers’ utter lack of depth and relatively short turnaround, Boise State would probably have the slight leg up under normal circumstances. But home court advantage is a very real thing, and Dayton fans come out in bunches. Look for Archie Miller’s group to ride that support to its fourth NCAA Tournament victory in the last two years.

The RTC Certified Pick: Dayton

What’s that, you say? March Madness? The first half of the First Four got under way in Dayton last night and the nightcap gave us plenty of reasons to get excited about what’s to come over the next three weeks. #11 Ole Miss, which defeated #11 BYU in a thrilling back-and-forth contest, along with Hampton, which outlasted Manhattan, will advance to the Round of 64 on Thursday. Their prizes will be #11 Xavier and #1 Kentucky, respectively. There’s more to come tonight — with two more eliminations in store — as #16 Robert Morris will take on #16 North Florida, and #11 Boise State will play a road game at #11 Dayton. Enjoy!

Eliminations (03.17.15)

• Manhattan
• BYU

The Southeastern Conference has been hit hard in the national media and on social media and everywhere else for its less than stellar basketball reputation. To be fair, it’s not completely unwarranted. Ole Miss opened the season with a loss to Charleston Southern. Mississippi State lost to Arkansas State and McNeese State. Missouri boasts a loss to UMKC. Those are bad losses to be sure, but the SEC is definitely not a one-team league, and the NCAA Tournament is a very good time to prove it.

Even folks in the south would agree that Kentucky carries the flag of SEC basketball. But the other four in the Big Dance have a great opportunity to add to the party. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Five SEC teams made the NCAA Tournament this season, including undefeated Kentucky, which is a step in the right direction. You have to wonder, though, how much the Wildcats running through the conference without a loss has tarnished the perception of the rest of the league. Close followers of the SEC recognize its depth of talent from top to bottom this year but college basketball success is often defined by how the conference performs in March. Whether you subscribe to that opinion or think it’s bunk, it is important for the SEC to prove its worth on the national stage this weekend. Below we will examine what each team stands to gain during the NCAA Tournament in addition to bolstering the overall perception of the conference.

• Kentucky: ESPN has made you acutely aware that Kentucky is chasing history, but even though the Wildcats are on the pursuit of perfection, there are still plenty of doubters. Everybody knows haters are gonna hate, but there is really only one way to silence those detractors, and that’s to win. For Kentucky, anything short of a National Championship will bring out a chorus of “I told you sos” from the numerous Twitter trolls who have persistently claimed that Kentucky has benefited from a weak SEC slate. John Calipari‘s club is on a mission to achieve something much more substantial than providing trash talk ammunition for the Big Blue Nation to take on Louisville fans. The 2012 version of the Wildcats may very well have been a better team than this season’s crew, but the Anthony Davis Wildcats can’t claim a 40-0 record. With six more wins the 2015 Kentucky Wildcats will forever be remembered as one of the great teams in college basketball history. Lose, however, and this team might be categorized in the same breath as the 2009-10 John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins Wildcats; a talented team that fell short when it counted the most.

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The ACC’s six NCAA Tournament teams have a lot on the line this weekend. Let’s take a look at each to determine how their current status projects in getting through the first weekend and beyond.

• Duke: The Blue Devils look to avoid another early exit after suffering two huge round of 32 upsets in the last three years (Mercer – 2014; Lehigh – 2012). The 2013 team advanced according to seed, losing to eventual national champion Louisville in the regional final, but that Duke squad was led by three seniors. The makeup of this year’s group — with only one senior — is very similar to those two young Duke teams that were bounced by double-digit seeds. But don’t expect another opening game debacle this year since Duke has earned the advantage of a #1 seed for the first time since 2011. Just getting out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament unscathed is not the goal for this team, however, as anything short of an Elite Eight appearance would be a major disappointment. Duke has won several games in tough environments already this season, but the finality of the NCAA Tournament could cause Coach K’s inexperienced team to tighten up. If it can handle a potential grinder on Sunday, that may be enough to loosen up the Devils for a much deeper run.

Justin Anderson is the key for the Cavaliers. (Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports)

• Virginia: All eyes will be on Justin Anderson when the Cavaliers take the court in Friday’s opener against Belmont. For Virginia to make a Final Four run, they’re going to need to have Anderson (and his offensive game) back in shape quickly. Assuming they handle the Bruins, Michigan State looms as the likely third round opponent in a rematch of last year’s Sweet Sixteen meeting in Madison Square Garden. The Spartans won that tightly contested game and come in to this year’s NCAA Tournament probably playing better than Virginia is right now. Good defense and a revenge factor will not be enough, though – the Cavaliers need buckets, and a healthy Anderson gets them easier than anyone else on the team. If Virginia makes it out of Charlotte, it will likely mean that Anderson has regained his effectiveness and that means bad news for the rest of the East Region.

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