How the Big 12 Can Change the Conversation
Posted by Brian Goodman on March 18th, 2015
While the Big 12 went wire to wire this season as the top conference in America, according to KenPom and the RPI, its postseason results over the last decade continue to cast a shadow over the league’s legitimacy. Since 2005, the Big 12 is tied for fourth in NCAA Tournament wins, tied for fifth in Sweet Sixteen appearances and tied for fourth in Final Four berths. In the last 10 years, 17 Big 12 teams have underperformed relative to their seeds compared with just 12 teams that have overperformed. Although the season-long metrics are more reliable from an analytical perspective than chaotic NCAA Tournament results, the postseason is valued more heavily when it comes to both bar room debates and television contracts. Fortunately for the conference this season, it propelled seven teams into the Big Dance, so there are plenty of opportunities to quiet the skeptics. Here’s how each of those teams can help the conference flip the script.
The Mayor can rescue the Big 12 from years of tournament disappointment with a run to Indianapolis. (Eric Gay/AP)
- Iowa State: Fred Hoiberg has turned the Iowa State program around and then some in his five years running the team, but the time is ripe for him to raise the status even higher by adding a trip to the Final Four — which would be Iowa State’s first since 1944 — to his already-impressive resume. The Cyclones are among the hottest teams in the country but they’ll need to keep up their hot shooting and not rely on their proven ability to mount comebacks in order to capitalize on the good favor they’ve curried.
- Kansas: The Jayhawks limp into the Big Dance with Perry Ellis, Landen Lucas and Frank Mason at less than 100 percent. If that weren’t bad enough, they’re planning to be without Cliff Alexander and have notched just three wins in their last eight games away from Allen Fieldhouse (and one of those road wins was in Lubbock). Oh, and they received by far the worst Tournament draw of any #2 seed, facing a potential Elite Eight game against juggernaut Kentucky. As terrific a coach as Bill Self is, the odds of him extracting a 2012 type of run to the championship game from this team are long. A ride to the regional final would be impressive, though, especially if the Jayhawks can knock off local rival Wichita State in the process.
- Oklahoma: The Sooners have been snake-bitten in the Lon Kruger years, assuming the role of first round upset victim in their last two NCAA Tournament appearances. While Oklahoma needs to get over that hump, this team is Kruger’s best one yet so the expectations don’t stop at simply winning one game. A pilgrimage to the Sweet Sixteen would give Kruger the distinction of taking four different programs that deep, but Oklahoma’s excellent defense and Buddy Hield‘s scoring ability make the Sooners a threat to play even deeper, possibly slaying two monsters in Virginia and Villanova on the way there.
- Baylor: Scott Drew has taken two teams to the Elite Eight and engineered one of the game’s better turnarounds in parlaying last year’s 2-8 start in Big 12 play to a spot in the Sweet Sixteen. Additionally, Drew has already milked a great year mostly out of the remnants of that team, but in the end, you’re judged on your postseason success. Drew has plenty of that, but the criticisms still come out. Baylor was a #3 seed for both of its Elite Eights; and although this year’s team isn’t as talented, it is capable of making that kind of run. Would a win over Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen in Los Angeles quiet Drew’s critics for good?
- West Virginia: This is only West Virginia’s third season in the conference, and the Mountaineers have already outperformed preseason expectations by finishing third in the Big 12, so they don’t shoulder as much of the blame for the conference’s postseason struggles as teams like Kansas and Texas do. As the coach of two Final Four teams and a six-time conference Coach Of The Year, however, Bob Huggins can certainly help prop the league’s national profile back up. He’s taken 18 different 20-win teams to the Big Dance, and has been bounced in the first round on just two of those occasions, with one of them coming as the head coach of Akron way back in 1986. That history suggests West Virginia won’t be the victim of the dreaded #12-#5 upset this week, but if the Mountaineers were to face Maryland in the Round of 32, they’d have a favorable matchup and a chance to turn heads with a Sweet 16 berth after missing the tournament altogether in each of the last two years.
LeBryan Nash will try to deliver Travis Ford’s first NCAA Tournament win since 2009. (Stephen Pingry/Tulsa World)
- Oklahoma State: While Huggins is a coaching legend, Travis Ford has quite a bit more to prove. After striking out in two chances with All-American Marcus Smart, he needs to turn it around with capable leaders in Le’Bryan Nash and Phil Forte and finally notch a second NCAA Tournament win with the Pokes (his first and only came in 2009). Doing so against one of the best-coached teams in the country will be a challenge, but Dana Altman’s Ducks can be beaten.
- Texas: It’s not clear just how far Rick Barnes needs to take the disappointing Longhorns in order to keep his job, but as far as perception goes, seven years without so much as a Sweet Sixteen appearance at arguably one of the best jobs in the country is already too long. Another win or two probably won’t change the manner in which Barnes is viewed, but perhaps a deeper run could. This year’s team has the talent to pull it off, but how many times have we seen this movie with Texas?
Brian Goodman a Big 12 microsite writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BSGoodman.
