Day One of the Round of 64 wasn’t as wild and woolly as some previous years have been, but the result is always the same — 16 teams removed from the Circle of March. There are now 48 teams left dreaming for a shot at the ultimate glory. Enjoy Day Two of March Madness…

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.21.13)

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There are, theoretically, lots of ways that a team can get upset.  In practice, the formula for a big upset tends to have a few common recurring elements that appear with a sort of frequency that would make James Frazer proud. Upset-minded teams typically play at a slow tempo, make a lot of threes, rarely commit turnovers, and have a veteran coach and players. The good news for Pacific University is that it looks a lot like a team capable of an upset.

Will Miami Survive the Upset-Minded Tigers? (photo: Getty Images)

Pacific plays at the 285th fastest speed in Division I and as a team makes 39.1% of three-pointers (12th best nationally!).  A turnover percentage of 17.7% ranks in the top 50 in the country and veteran Bob Thomason coaches a team loaded with juniors and seniors. Thomason has coached at Pacific since 1988 and has previously led his teams to NCAA Tournament wins over Pittsburgh and Providence. Even more important (at least for the narrative-minded), Thomason has announced that this will be his final year coaching, and that after 25 years, he will be hanging up his whistle after this tournament. It sounds like a perfect storm of circumstances for a team to overachieve and give their coach one last hurrah. So does Pacific have what it takes to beat Miami?

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1. With UCLA’s Jordan Adams out for the year, Norman Powell was inserted into the starting lineup and the 6-foot-4-guard will need to step up against Minnesota today. Ever since Powell has come to UCLA, he’s drawn comparisons to notable former guard Russell Westbrook because of his 6-f00t-11-inch wingspan and extreme athleticism. But when Powell was replaced in the starting lineup after some strong early season play from Jordan Adams, he lost confidence and never regained his role in the first five. In his first game back as a starter against Oregon in the Pac-12 semifinals, however, he had 10 points on 3-of-6 shooting and had four rebounds. The sophomore seems more determined than ever after his second go as a starter and if he can match the production of Jordan Adams, the Bruins might just advance to the next round.
2. Tad Boyle believes all his freshmen at Colorado are ready for their first NCAA Tournament game. Boyle says that they are not really freshmen anymore and that holds most true with starters Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson. Scott has averaged 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game this year while Johnson averages 9 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. Johnson has saved some of his best games for big moments as well. He had 19 points and 22 points in Colorado’s wins over Arizona and Oregon respectively. Illinois will obviously try to stop Colorado’s two best players Spencer Dinwiddie and Andre Roberson today, and that will leave the game up to the two starting freshmen.
3. Oregon head coach Dana Altman has always been a model of consistency. When Altman was lured from Creighton to Eugene, he didn’t change his hard-working and confident style despite the increased budget and popular Nike brand. In his time at Creighton, Altman brought the Blue Jays to the NCAA Tournament seven times in 16 years and continued to improve his team. And his time at Oregon has been exactly the same. The Ducks were in the CBI in Altman’s first year, the NIT in his second, and made the NCAA Tournament this year and picked up a win over Oklahoma State yesterday. Needless to say, Altman knows what he is doing and continues to do so in a selfless, yet confident way.
4. UCLA’s Larry Drew II doesn’t look at the championship ring he won at North Carolina as a freshman often. That’s because Drew’s career as a Tar Heel was never too successful. He failed to meet expectations as a sophomore after the national championship and was replaced by freshman Kendall Marshall in his junior year. Then, Drew decided to transfer to UCLA. Although the Bruins’ heralded freshmen have been critical this season, Drew might be the most valuable player for UCLA. After USC beat UCLA by forcing Drew to shoot, he changed his game. Since then, Drew has shot 51 percent from the field and 61 percent from three in 12 games.
5. Andre Roberson was largely ignored as a recruit when he played high school basketball in Texas. Now as one of the nation’s top rebounders, Roberson heads back to his home state to play in the NCAA Tournament, but the scenario is quite different. No team from the state of Texas made the field of 68 this year while Roberson has led Colorado to its second consecutive tournament appearance making all those teams second guess themselves once again for passing on the local talent.

The Wildcats earned an at-large bid to the Big Dance despite getting blown out in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament by the eventual champion Louisville. They earned their at-large bid largely on the back of their home wins over the three best teams in the conference at their road win at Connecticut but still had to sweat out Selection Sunday thanks to some terrible losses early in the season to Columbia and Alabama.

Jay Wright Has His Team Dancing Once Again, But For How Long? (H. Rumph Jr./AP)

Region: South
Seed: #9
Record: 20-13 (10-8 Big East)
Second-Round Matchup: vs. North Carolina in Kansas City

Key Player: The team’s best offensive player and focal point on that end of the floor is redshirt sophomore JayVaughn Pinkston and when Pinkston is focused and engaged in the game, the Wildcats can be a dangerous team on the offensive end. Pinkston led the team in scoring (13.1 PPG) despite playing just 25.9 minutes per game and when he is staying within the offense, attacking the rim, and using his size and strength to get to the free-throw line, he can be difficult to stop. However, when he is forcing tough shots and stalking the perimeter rather than mixing it up down low, he can disappear for long stretches, something the Wildcats can ill-afford if they want to keep pace with North Carolina’s quick-strike offense. Read the rest of this entry »

The Hoyas surpassed everyone’s expectations this season and won a share of the Big East regular season title and the No. 1 overall seed in the Big East Tournament where they lost in the semifinals to Syracuse. The Hoyas were in contention for a No. 1 seed before losing to Villanova down the stretch and not reaching the title game in the conference tournament. Instead the selection committee rewarded their excellence with a No. 2 seed in a winnable region and a first-round date with the Eagles and their rabid fan base.

It doesn’t take a basketball expert to understand Otto Porter’s importance to Georgetown (M. Sullivan/Reuters)

Region: South
Seed: No. 2
Record: 25-6 (14-4 Big East)
Matchup: v. Florida Gulf Coast University in Philadelphia

Key Player: Let’s face it, to call anyone other than Otto Porter the key player for the Hoyas would be forcing it as the athletic sophomore is the at the center of the team’s success this season. Porter is a first-team All-American, the team’s leading scorer (16.3 PPG) and rebounder (7.4 RPG) and three-point shooter (42.7 3PT%) who just so happens to be capable of defending multiple positions well to boot. He might be the most important player in the entire tournament if you consider what type of team Georgetown would be without him. As long as he plays as well as he did during conference play, the Hoyas should make a run, and if he rises to the occasion and turns it up another notch, well the rest of the South Region and the bracket better look out. Read the rest of this entry »

#2 Duke vs. #15 Albany – Midwest Region Second Round (at Philadelphia) – 12:15 PM ET on CBS

Day two of the second round of the NCAA Tournament kicks off in Philadelphia, where #2 seeded Duke will hope to exorcise the demons of a year ago. Fortunately for the Blue Devils, CJ McCollum will not be walking through those Wells Fargo Center doors. This year, making an appearance on the #15 seed line opposite Duke are the Great Danes of Albany. The America East Champs are a middle-of-the-road team on both ends of the floor in regard to overall efficiency, but do have strengths that could prove useful versus the Dookies. The Danes are deep (10 players average 9+ minutes a game), have good size for a low-major, and shoot the three-ball pretty well, hitting 36.4% as a team. All are nice ingredients when preparing for an upset, but Albany’s middling paper resume also makes them appear to be the least dangerous #15 seed in the field. Really though, does it even matter how good the Danes are? After last year’s embarrassing second-round exit, a part of me feels like you could put Louisville as Duke’s #15 seed and there would be no way that Coach K’s team makes that same early departure. Mason Plumlee will be an interior nightmare for Albany, and with Ryan Kelly fully healthy and stretching the floor alongside Seth Curry and Quinn Cook, expect Duke to come out fast, leaving no doubts about their Sunday afternoon plans this time around.

Seth Curry And Duke Are Looking To Avoid Another Monumental Upset As They Begin Their NCAA Tournament

The RTC Certified Pick: Duke

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Ole Miss – West Regional Second Round (at Kansas City, MO) – 12:40 PM ET on TruTV

When Mississippi completed their run to the SEC title on Sunday with an upset win over Florida, college hoops fans everywhere were rewarded with – or doomed to, depending on your viewpoint – an NCAA Tournament with a Marshall Henderson appearance. The polarizing junior shooting guard of the Rebels has either thrilled or infuriated spectators this season with his brash demeanor and freewheeling style. And who did the Selection Committee reward Ole Miss with as a second round opponent? None other than a Wisconsin team, where brash and freewheeling hotshots go to die. For the second time in as many years (and the fifth time in the last decade), the Badgers are a top-ten team in defensive efficiency, this year third in the nation. Not coincidentally, the Badgers are also holding teams below 30% three-point shooting for the second time in as many seasons, meaning Henderson and Ole Miss are going to find points hard to come by. However, this is also the least efficient Wisconsin offense in the KenPom era, meaning even if the Badgers go out of their way to turn off the water for Henderson, Ole Miss will still likely be within shouting distance deep into the second half. If Andy Kennedy can suck in the Wisconsin defenders with scoring from interior guys like Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner, maybe they can hang around long enough to steal one late. More likely, Wisconsin uglies this one up and advances by a comfortable margin.

The RTC Certified Pick: Wisconsin

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After the shocking loss to Lehigh last tournament, it seems unlikely that Duke will ever overlook a no. 15 seed again. Yet, looking at Albany‘s body of work; no one would blame the Blue Devils for looking a little bit ahead. Albany is not Lehigh. Lehigh was ridiculously underseeded at 15 and featured two top caliber players, one of whom, C.J. McCollum will probably play in the NBA. Duke was missing Ryan Kelly, and, in general seemed to be faltering at the end of this season. Meanwhile, this season, there is little to indicate that Albany is mis-seeded and Duke finished the regular season healthy and on a strong note. Still, for the sake of argument, if Albany were to somehow beat Duke, how would they do it?

Duke and Kelly Are Unlikely to Drop Another NCAA Opener (Lance King)

Duke’s one big weakness all season has been rebounding and the Great Danes have actually been pretty good on that front, particularly in terms of defensive rebounding, though Albany easily outpaces Duke’s offensive rebounding mark as well. The big caveat here is the caliber of competition that Albany has been beating on the glass: dominating the America East Conference on the boards is a little simpler than doing the same in the ACC. Yet, it bears mentioning that tempo-free rebounding measures tend to be remarkably stable even when the level of competition changes. As strange as it is to say, it’s quite possible that the Great Danes could own the boards against Duke.

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1. It isn’t official but it does feel like it’s really over. Perhaps yesterday’s loss to the Oregon Ducks was the final game of Marcus Smart’s brief and eventful career at Oklahoma State. He arrived on campus with a lot of hype and he was worth every bit of it. But where does that leave Travis Ford and his program? For such a successful regular season to end suddenly in the round of 64, he’ll hop back on the hot seat. What if Le’Bryan Nash or Markel Brown decides to leave for the pros too? They have a solid recruiting class coming in but it seems unlikely for those freshman to plug in those huge gaps. Uneasy times in Stillwater.
2. Friday is essentially “Big 12 day” at the NCAA Tournament as the league’s four remaining teams will be in action. Two of those teams will do very little traveling (maybe none?). Kansas and Kansas State played at the Sprint Center for the Big 12 Tournament and now have the tough task of playing there again for the Friday/Sunday sessions. KU stands as the top seed in the South Region and there is extra intrigue here as a win today could set up another Roy Williams v. Jayhawks match-up in the round of 32. Due to recent developments (hi New Mexico), the Wildcats would have an easier road to the Final Four if they can get by Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. Or if Wichita State upsets Gonzaga tomorrow, it’d be an all-Kansas regional semifinal in Los Angeles. It is March, it could happen.
3. I guess we should get used to saying this: Iowa State is once again in the tournament. While it wasn’t a given they’d make it here even a month ago, one player who has helped their way in is forward Will Clyburn. As you may now, Clyburn is a transfer from Utah but he didn’t start his college career like most recruits did. He had a growth spurt during his senior year of high school but his height-strength ratio scared off most recruiters. Clyburn chose to enroll at Marshalltown Community College in Iowa. He became a gym rat, fine tuning his game and eventually transferred to Utah after successful freshman and sophomore campaigns. Now he’s the leading scorer (15.0) and rebounder (7.1) for Iowa State. How did you let him get away, coaches?
4. As Oklahoma preps for its second round game against San Diego State, we finally got into the mind (a bit) of their nomadic head coach Lon Kruger. Any coach will tell you how difficult it is to build chemistry on a team so imagine how much harder it’d be if the coach that recruited you leaves for another job before you graduate. “But then every place we’ve been we’ve never looked for another job or asked for another job. It’s just worked out OK with different moves for different reasons. We’ve been pretty fortunate,” Kruger told the Norman Transcript. I tend to believe that that’s a bunch of hooey. One of his former players, Steve Henson, mentioned how Kruger interviewed for the head coaching job at Texas right after his sophomore season. (Kruger ended up leaving for Florida after Henson’s senior year.) That’s not to take anything away from what he’s done in his second year in Norman but you or I shouldn’t be surprised if he up and leaves OU all of a sudden.
5. In case you didn’t know that there was basketball being played outside of the NCAA and NIT tournaments, the Texas Longhorns participated in the CBI on Wednesday night. They took on their old rivals from the Southwest Conference, the University of Houston Cougars and ended up losing to UH 73-72. To add insult, top recruit Julius Randle, who considered Texas in his recruiting process, announced for Kentucky earlier in the week. Hopefully this is the last straw of a season where everything went wrong for Texas. And somewhere in the Northeast, current commissioner of the “old” Big East Mike Aresco is cracking open some champagne for all the wrong reasons.

Despite a promising season that  had the metrics lovers thinking that the Panthers were a sleeper choice to make a run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, Pitt was run out of the gym by Wichita State on Thursday afternoon. Here are a handful of thoughts on some of the issues surrounding the Panthers as their season is now finished.

Another year ends in disappointment for Pittsburgh and coach Jamie Dixon.

1. Tray Woodall’s final game was an abject disaster. The Panthers’ fifth-year senior floor general was supposed to be the key to Pittsburgh making a splash in their return to the NCAA Tournament, instead, he may be the primary reason they are going home after just one game. The diminutive Woodall forced shots, never really looked to penetrate, and finished 1-of-12 from the field with five turnovers and just one assist before fouling out. Everyone knew the game between these two physical teams would be a low-scoring one, but Pittsburgh’s shot-making ability is predicated on Woodall’s ability to drive and kick. Instead he spent a lot of time on the perimeter, missed all five of his three-point attempts, basically ignored the roll guy on pick-and-rolls and barely ignited the offense at all, leading to the disastrous performance by the whole team. Read the rest of this entry »

Cincinnati came into the year as one of the favorites for a top four finish in the Big East, and that looked like a good bet through non-conference play. However, the Bearcats were totally inconsistent all season once the Big East schedule began, and after an injury to guard Cashmere Wright in January, Cincinnati has struggled to put points on the board. Wins over Iowa State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Marquette, and Villanova were enough to get the Bearcats into the tournament, but Cincinnati was probably a game or two from being in serious bubble talks.

Mick Cronin and Cincinnati came into the season as a favorite to win the Big East. Now, they get to prove that all over again. (Getty)

Region: Midwest
Seed: No. 10
Record: 22-11 (9-9 Big East)
Matchup: v. Creighton in Philadelphia, PA

Key Player: Sean Kilpatrick is far and away the most important Bearcat. He is the team’s leader in minutes, points, and is just .6 rebounds off of Titus Rubles pace for the team lead in that category, and he’s doing it from the guard position. On a team that often struggles to find the bottom of the net, Kilpatrick is the only consistent option, and the opposition knows it, which helps explain the low shooting percentages for the Yonkers native. Read the rest of this entry »