1. After nearly two years of investigations and countless missteps the NCAA finally sent Miami and people who left the school their notice of allegations. All of the reports that we have at this point are from sources as nobody outside of the school’s administration has access to the official notice, but the primary allegations are for “lack of institutional control”, which is amusing given the lack of institutional control that the NCAA has shown in controlling their own investigators. While most of these allegations are around the football team, at least a few of them involve the basketball staff under former coach Frank Haith, who has moved on to Missouri. According to reports Haith is facing a failure to monitor charge rather than the more serious unethical conduct charge that could have carried a show-cause penalty.
2. When NCAA Selection Committee Chairman Mike Bobinski claim that the RPI was the best computer predictor of NCAA Tournament success we were stunned, but unlike many of us who just laughed at the suggestion John Ezekowitz decided to take a look at the data and found that Bobinski was wrong. As you would expect Ken Pomeroy’s rankings outperform the RPI (of course every college basketball fan knows that Pomeroy is the most amazing thing ever), but what is more interesting is how much Ezekowitz’s Survival Advantage model (explained here) outperforms both the RPI and Pomeroy in predicting the NCAA Tournament. This is something that you should remember in a month when you are filling out your bracket.
3. As usual Luke Winn’s weekly power rankings have their usual wealth of great information packed into the most concise format this side of Twitter. While Luke always makes great use of graphics and charts his weekly column typically focuses on one or two major themes. This week’s themes (outside of enraging every single college basketball fan in the state of Michigan) are Winn’s analysis of three players (Trey Burke, Tyler Zeller, and Kelly Olynyk) having exceptionally efficient high-usage seasons and two players (Kenny Kadji and Erik Murphy) who have become much more perimeter-oriented later in their college careers.
4. The success of a few individuals (most notably Mike Leach in football before his closet fiasco) has led some to speculate that there could be a change in the way that sports are played. One of the latest examples to make the media rounds is the style of play from West Liberty, a Division II school, that has been highly successful in playing an up-tempo style of basketball. While we have had our issues with gimmicks in basketball (see our takedown of Malcolm Gladwell from 2009), but this attack and others like it are obviously more nuanced than what Gladwell espoused. We doubt that any power conference schools (read: athletic directors) would be willing to try it, but we would love to see a mid- or low-major try it out.
5. Since the Fab Five, which technically didn’t exist (we’re still going with that, right), Michigan has experienced relatively little success in the NCAA Tournament. However, this season the Wolverines have realistic Final Four aspirations and with the NCAA’s dissociation of Chris Webber and the school ending in May, the school has been reaching out to the former members and with Juwan Howard now on board it seems like only a matter of time before the school has some big event to celebrate the group. Frankly we cannot see the downside of it other than irritating the NCAA, which will still leave a black mark next to the team’s accomplishments. However the administration has expressed some reservation in celebrating the group so it will be interesting to see what they decide.

Have you ever seen those black-and-white pictures hanging in the concourses of every college basketball arena in America? You know, the ones commemorating teams who won championships in 1921 in leagues that don’t exist anymore, consisting of skinny dudes who never touched a weight room in their lives, played decades before the invention of the protein shake, and very well may have played with a peach basket?  It’s quite possible those people traveled in time to Wednesday night and invaded Gallagher-Iba Arena.

Bill Self Showed Off His Dance Moves On ESPN

Kansas and Oklahoma State played a thriller on Wednesday. Double-overtime. A game-winner by Naadir Tharpe in the final seconds. A wild final sequence ending in a player throwing himself on the floor and the Jayhawks scooping the ball up for a dunk that counted only symbolically. It was everything you could ask for as a college basketball fan in terms of drama and late-game heroics, and yet it still might have been one of the most frustratingly and poorly played contests since the Great Depression. These are supposed to be two of the top three teams in the Big 12 Conference, but neither looked the part tonight.

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With only three weeks remaining, Adam continues to edge out the rest of us. Last week was rough on all of us, thanks to Stanford choking away what we thought would be easy home wins against the LA schools. I was the only one to correctly pick California’s home win over the Bruins, but I was also the only one to miss Oregon State’s road upset of Washington State. That seems to be the trend in the past few weeks, as all the parity in the conference is taking away any opportunities to make a comeback. In our games of the week, Colorado ran by Arizona on Thursday, while Georgetown went on the road and knocked off Cincinnati. So now, we enter the home stretch. California’s visit to Oregon and Georgetown’s meeting with Syracuse headline the list as our games of the week.

The biggest differences in opinion this week come in California’s visit to Oregon State. Adam and I took the home Beavers for the upset, while Drew and Parker took California. I was the only one to take both road teams in our games of the week, opting for the Golden Bears to rally and upset the still Dominic Artis-less Ducks and for Georgetown to get another big win at the Carrier Dome. I also differed in a couple other games, taking the Beavers to defeat Stanford on Thursday and the Trojans to complete their sweep of UCLA on Sunday.

It isn’t very often that a team drops 85 points on a Bill Self-coached team or wins in Allen Fieldhouse. Oklahoma State did both earlier this month, ending the Jayhawks‘ 33-game home winning streak while scoring the most points in regulation against Kansas since, well, Oklahoma State nearly three years ago. It was the beginning of the worst eight-day stretch of Kansas basketball since 2005 and it makes tonight’s rematch the most intriguing game in the Big 12 this season for a few reasons. The loser will be a game behind first place with five games left, making an outright conference championship nearly impossible. The Big 12 doesn’t have a tiebreaker for the regular season title and rewards multiple trophies if teams are tied (because of the previously unbalanced schedule with 12 teams), so this wouldn’t be a huge deal. But if Kansas wants to claim its ninth consecutive Big 12 championship with a straight face, avoiding a sweep by the team it tied would help that cause. Bill Self has also never been swept in the regular season while at Kansas. He’s had a few close calls, like Missouri last season, but Self has always avenged a loss when given the chance. Tonight might be the toughest test yet, though.

It’s A Rarity, But Bill Self Is An Underdog Tonight In Stillwater. (AP)

In the first meeting on November 2, Kansas was a 10-point favorite and #2 in the country, winners of 18 in a row. That didn’t effect Marcus Smart or Markel Brown, however. Smart, a leading candidate along with Ben McLemore for Big 12 Freshman of the Year as well as a near-lock for the All-Big 12 First Team, had 25 points, nine rebounds (eight offensive), and five steals in the 85-80 victory. With Smart stealing potentially eight extra possessions, coupled with Brown’s 28 points and effective field goal percentage of 73.5%, the Cowboys had enough ammo to outlast Kansas on its home court, something that doesn’t happen very often. But that pair of ridiculous stat lines is why I like the Jayhawks tonight. Smart and Brown had two of the best games they’ve had in an OSU uniform and their team forced 16 Kansas turnovers, and yet they still only won by five points. That’s what was needed, because everything else about Oklahoma State’s box score — from shooting percentage and assists to free-throw percentage and turnovers — was similar to the rest of the season. Could Brown and/or Smart go off on the Jayhawks again tonight? Maybe. A similar game from Smart is expected because of how bad of a match-up his size creates for the KU guards. But Brown? I doubt it. He only has three other 20-point games since December 1. But that isn’t the only reason I think Kansas wins tonight on its way to another outright Big 12 championship.

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With the end of the semester in sight, some students are making big strides while others continue to underachieve. This week Professor Pac has a couple of A’s to hand out, while the rest of the conference is bunched together in the B’s and C’s this week. Check back later today for seven different C- performers.

Oregon – A

Still without Dominic Artis, the Ducks reaffirmed the fact that they belong among the teams at the top of the conference by going on the road and taking care of both Washington schools this week. It wasn’t always easy and it wasn’t always pretty, but with five games remaining on their schedule, including the next three at home, the Ducks not only have a one-game lead, but they also have wins over the two teams a game back of them, making it, in effect, a one-and-a-half game lead.

Focus on: Damyean Dotson. When the Ducks lost three games in a row, the easy explanation was that they missed Dominic Artis. While that is certainly true, it is also worth noting that Artis’ freshman backcourt mate hit a slide at the same time as well. In the first four games without Artis, a stretch that included those three losses, Dotson averaged 7.3 points per game and wasn’t even finding any good shots. In conference play, Dotson has only failed to put up 10 or more field goal attempts just five times, and four of those five occasions came in the first four games without Artis. But, over the course of the three-game winning streak, Dotson has regained his mojo, averaging 15 points per game and 13 field goal attempts per night. Certainly part of the reason for Dotson’s slide was the absence of Artis, but don’t forget the fact that Dotson may be just as important to Oregon’s long-term goals as Artis is.

Looking ahead: The Ducks host the Bay Area schools, beginning with the suddenly hot Cal Bears on Thursday night, but also including Stanford on Saturday. That game will be noteworthy because just a few weeks back, Oregon went into Stanford with a 7-0 conference record and got absolutely drilled, losing by 24 to the Cardinal. Oh, and the weekly Artis watch? Still no word as to his status for this weekend.

After Struggling In His First Games Without Dominic Artis, Damyean Dotson Has Regained His Form of Late (Photo by Rockne Andrew Roll)

California – A

All of a sudden, the Golden Bears, once a team that looked like a lock for a lower division finish, have won three in a row, and five of its last six, including wins over Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA. Read the rest of this entry »

Maybe Professor Pac is in a good mood this week, because he couldn’t bring himself to give any of the below teams  D’s.

UCLA – C-

A road split. That’s good right? Yeah, it will work, but the way the Bruins lost their first game of the week (building up a 23-point half-time deficit and never making a serious push in the second half) is pretty inexcusable. They bounced back strong against Stanford and turned in their best offensive performance since, maybe Missouri, but this team is still a mystery.

Focus on: Kyle Anderson. Anderson was terrific against Stanford, scoring 18 points, grabbing 13 boards, handing out four assists, snatching a couple steals and even knocking down a three (he’s now 5-of-26 for the season from back there). That’s the guy that Ben Howland needs to show up on a regular basis for the Bruins. His ability to make plays for himself and teammates makes the Bruins more explosive and his newfound interest in hitting the glass is an absolutely necessity on an otherwise ridiculously poor rebounding team.

The Bruins Need Kyle Anderson’s Versatile Game On A More Regular Basis (UCLA Athletics)

Looking ahead: If the Bruins want to prove to themselves that they have the ability to be a national threat in March, they first have to prove that they can win a big local battle, as they travel 14 miles southeast to face USC on Sunday.

Washington State – C-

So you’re playing the conference leader to a draw. You’ve already got them in overtime and with just seconds left, your sophomore guard who is having a breakout career game knocks down a big three to tie the game and give you a real good chance to go to a second overtime. And then. Ugh. You probably know what happened. I can’t bring myself to repeat it, but suffice it to say, the Cougars went out of their way to ease Oregon’s route to a two-point overtime win. Hey, when you’re 2-11 in conference play, you usually have some bad luck and some ridiculous events. But that? That was above and beyond.

Focus on: Royce Woolridge. So, let’s focus on the positives. After struggling with his shot and his confidence early in the season, this sophomore transfer from Washington State is proving his worth. He has now scored in double figures in six straight games, but the piece de resistance came Saturday against those Ducks as he hit 10-of-15 shots from the field, including six threes on his way to a 36-point total that shattered his previous career-high. As recently as a week ago I was writing off Woolridge as a shooting guard that can’t shoot or a point guard that can’t handle. And clearly, I wrote him off too soon. His confidence is through the roof and he’s showing  that he can be a key part to this program for the next couple years.

Bennet Hayes is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @HoopsTraveler on Twitter. He filed this report from Tuesday’s game in Atlanta between Georgia Tech and North Carolina.

While we are not looking at our daddy’s Miami Hurricanes this season, it was only 10 days ago that a 26-point UNC loss in Coral Gables seemed to indicate that we also weren’t seeing a very familiar UNC team this year. It was not the first time that these Heels found themselves on the wrong side of a lopsided scoreboard (far from it, really), and with a visit to Cameron Indoor Stadium lurking next, head coach Roy Williams decided that something needed to change. Williams inserted wing PJ Hairston into the starting lineup at the four, giving the starting five a smaller, more explosive look. Immediate results were good, as Hairston went for 23 points in a close loss in Durham before erupting for a career-high 29 in a weekend victory over Virginia. Tuesday night’s match-up with Georgia Tech featured little in the way of Hairston fireworks, but another UNC victory serves as more proof that Roy may be on to something with his new, smaller approach.

PJ Hairston’s Insertion Into The Starting Lineup Makes For A More Explosive Carolina Team (Getty Images)

Hairston may be the player most dramatically affected by the revamped lineup – and his post defense did little to dismiss this notion – but James Michael McAdoo has also been forced to play slightly out of position at the five. There will be nights down the road where McAdoo will be more tested in his own paint, but on this evening he was a terror everywhere else on the defensive end, jumping into passing lanes and fueling a relentless UNC transition attack. The Tar Heels collected 14 steals (McAdoo leading the way with four) and forced a young Tech team into 19 turnovers, a total that ended up far too high for Brian Gregory’s team to have any chance of keeping close to Carolina.

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As we’re now fewer than four weeks from Selection Sunday, it’s always fun to start speculating about resumes of teams on the bubble. On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch (Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons) or his weekly Bracketology (Fridays), he’ll give us an interesting comparison or two of teams that he finds difficult to distinguish. Today, he offers up a couple of bubble teams that have made considerable news in the past week as to their placement (in or out). Here are their blind resumes:

Team A

• Record: 17-10
• Conference Record:  8-6 (major conference)
• RPI: 56
• SOS: 36
• BPI: 63
• Sagarin: 48
• KenPom: 56
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-6
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 6-9
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 10-1

Team B

• Record: 16-9
• Conference Record:  8-5 (major conference)
• RPI: 54
• SOS: 37
• BPI: 52
• Sagarin: 50
• KenPom: 60
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-5
• Record vs. RPI top 100: 4-9
• Record vs. teams below top 100 in RPI: 12-0

The two teams are revealed after the jump…

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Nick Fasulo is an RTC correspondent who writes the column College Basketball By the Tweets, a look at the world of college hoops through the prism of everyone’s favorite social media platform. You can find him on Twitter @nickfasuloSBN.

So this Harlem Shake viral phenomenon. You’ve heard of it. I shouldn’t have to explain it. Heck, there’s a chance you’ve made one or been forced to watch your co-workers’ rendition in the last seven days. Anyway… from the Soulja Boy Superman to the Dougie to Gangnam Style, college basketball always has a say in the direction and popularity of dance crazes. So with the latest flash in the pan fad reaching its apex over the weekend, naturally it pervaded DI to NAIA gyms and arenas over the weekend. Like, literally.

Every single college basketball game I’ve watched this weekend has played the Harlem Shake at least five times

— Colin Crowley (@Colin_Crowley_4) February 17, 2013

Based on my observations, Colin is not exaggerating.

Mike Montgomery Shoves Alan Crabbe

In sports today, almost any altercation, whether physical or verbal, is going to spark conversation on Twitter. Drama moves the needle, and the latest occurrence of that was Saturday when Cal head coach Mike Montgomery shoved his star player, Alan Crabbe. Video shows nothing too aggressive, but a love jolt enough to upset Crabbe and cause a bit of short-lived dissent among the team. Some quickly compared the act to that of Morehead State’s Sean Woods, who verbally abused a player earlier this season The difference is that Sean Woods humiliated his player because of how personal Morehead’s game against Kentucky was. Woods is a former Wildcats star whose jersey hangs in the Rupp Arena rafters, now coaching against his alma mater and trying to squeeze as much out of his players as he could. But only for his own good. Montgomery was passionate and truly trying to motivate, unfortunately displaying that passion in a not-so-ideal manner. Many people saw it the same way.

California Coach M. Montgomery shoving Alan Crabbe isn’t a big deal. It wasn’t malicious N anyway. Theres a certain way a Coach can do that.

— 1 LIVE STEW® (@1livestew) February 18, 2013

See absolutely nothing wrong with the way Mike Montgomery motivated Allen Crabbe. We have to stop micro analyzing everything. #passion

— Jay Williams (@RealJayWilliams) February 19, 2013

Surprised at the hoopla over Montgomery pushing Crabbe. I didn’t have a problem with it. Dealt w/worse in HS. I must be old.

— Charles Kilburn (@CharlesInNM) February 19, 2013

Haven’t heard a former player take issue w/Monty jolting Crabbe back into the game- lotta guys w/ pens/twitter handles

— Doug Gottlieb (@GottliebShow) February 19, 2013

So I think we can agree that the action was understandable. We can give Montgomery a pass. But what he said in his postgame press conference probably didn’t award him a get-out-of-jail free card, thus leading to the undisclosed punishment.

Montgomery should be suspended bc his immediate reaction was “it worked, didn’t it?” instead of “my bad, I fraked up” #Cal #Crabbe

— (author) Paul West (@firstcausenyc) February 19, 2013

Oh yeah, and, Montgomery’s act sort of worked, as Crabbe led the Golden Bears’ comeback against the Trojans, and also this…

Congratulations to Allen Crabbe, who was just named the @pac12 Player of the Week for the second-straight week #BerkeleyRepresent

— Cal Men’s Basketball (@CalMensBBall) February 18, 2013

Assuming Montgomery has spoken to Crabbe privately about this, I’ll tip my cap to the heady coach.

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Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @vtbnblog.

*Ed. Note: the statistics in this column were aggregated prior to Tuesday night’s St. Louis-VCU game.

Looking Back

Difference Margins in Conference Games: The offense/defense difference margins are beginning to “behave” as teams with winning records (Charlotte and Temple excepted) have positive difference margins, while teams with losing records (Dayton excepted) have negative difference margins. Temple, with a 5-5 record, has a -0.001, just two one-thousandths under “positive.” Tiers within the winning and losing groups continues to be messy, and occasionally explains why a team is succeeding or failing.

Looking over the “standings” this week a few things jump out…

• Fordham and Duquesne are losing contact with the rest of the conference, and that includes 3-8 Rhode Island. For the Dukes, with a new coach and a program in disarray, the trend is not surprising as wins are hard to come by. Fordham, coming into the season with senior all-conference forward Chris Gaston and a promising young backcourt, has to be a disappointment to fans and university administrators. Granted, Gaston has struggled with injuries and extended absences, but the current late season fade continues a pattern established over the last five seasons.

What’s that you say? Jim Crews and Saint Louis are running away from the rest of the conference. (AP)

• Saint Louis appears to be running away from the rest of the league. If the Bilikens’ numbers hold up over the course of this week (they play Butler next, after eviscerating VCU last night), expect coach Jim Crews’ squad to emerge with the #1 seed going into Brooklyn and up in the NCAA field where they are currently seeded in the #9-#11 range.
• Temple’s -0.001 efficiency margin reflects the fact that the Owls have had a series of one-point decisions (more in Temple’s team report below) against both stronger teams (Charlotte) and weaker teams (Duquesne).

Going, going… The topic touched on during virtually every Division I basketball game over the last week is “Who is in?” usually accompanied by a discussion of bubble teams – right side/wrong side, S-curves and “What happened to…”. Alhough the field is still under construction and opinions vary as to whether the Atlantic 10 will have six bids (Jerry Palm as of February 17) or four (Joe Lunardi and RTC’s own Daniel Evans), there is an emerging consensus that several preview “contenders” are in the field, somewhere on (or near) the bubble and clearly out of the conversation entirely. Some quick takes on the “bubble… sort of’s” and those who are “out”:

• Charlotte – Jerry Palm lists the 49ers as a #11 seed and well beyond the “Last Four In” category. Daniels lists them on his bubble watch of February 18 while Lunardi remains silent. Can good conference wins versus Butler and Xavier really negate double-figure losses to Richmond, George Washington and Saint Louis? More than any A-10 team not named Temple, winning their last five games going into the conference tournament will make or break this resume. Read the rest of this entry »