North Carolina Reveals Familiar Strengths and Weaknesses Against Wisconsin

Posted by KCarpenter on December 2nd, 2011

Apparently all it took was a bit of concentration and, suddenly, a North Carolina team that looked disorganized and unfocused against UNLV was playing exemplary defense against Wisconsin. Kendall Marshall, who struggled on that end against the Running Rebels, did well in his stints guarding perhaps the most offensively potent point guard in the country in Jordan Taylor. John Henson and Tyler Zeller, for the most part, kept good track of their rotations, provided near-perfect help defense and stayed focused for the whole shot clock. Dexter Strickland’s campaign of perimeter harassment against Taylor was some of the best on-ball defense I’ve seen by any North Carolina player in the past decade. Aside from a few critical missed rotations (notably one that lead to an open three for Taylor in the final minute), the defense simply looked exemplary.

The Heels Were Lucky to Escape Wisconsin With a Win (AP)

As for the offense, I’m less sure. While the Tar Heels shot 42.2% against the second-best defense in the country, turnovers plagued the team. North Carolina had fourteen turnovers in a slow game, a difference that kept Wisconsin in the game down to the very last minute. Think turnovers don’t matter that much? North Carolina had 45 field goal attempts while Wisconsin had 64 shots from the field. Wisconsin had nearly 50% more chances to get a bucket than North Carolina. Only great defense by UNC and 19 points from the free throw line kept the team from giving up to the Badgers. Marshall alone managed to tie Wisconsin’s entire team with four turnovers apiece. It’s honestly near-miraculous that North Carolina won given the discrepancy in number of field goal attempts.

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ACC Morning Five: 12.02.11 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 2nd, 2011

Luke Winn’s Power Rankings are out! The Seminoles have dropped out, leaving Duke (fifth) and North Carolina (fourth) in the most interesting rankings in the land. But it’s time to get back to the ACC. In other rivalry news Clemson football coach Dabo Swinney took some shots at former ACC member South Carolina and former ACC coach Steve Spurrier. Shots fired starting around the two minute mark, but Swinney saves the big guns for the last line:

That is why Carolina is in Chapel Hill, USC is in California and the university in this state always has been and always will be Clemson. It’s right here in Clemson, SC. You can print that. Tweet that.

Boom. Roasted.

  1. Duke Basketball Report: There’s a generalization that Clemson is bad at shooting free throws (the Tigers are shooting just under 64% on the year). Turns out, that generalization is correct. Duke Basketball Report looked at free throw shooting percentages historically in light of the fact that Virginia and Maryland seem on pace for historically good and bad years, respectively. The Cavaliers are shooting the ball at a 78.3% clip through the first seven games of the season (which would be good for sixth all-time among ACC teams). The Terrapins, on the other hand, are knocking down 59.4% of their shots from the charity stripe (which would be good for second worst all-time). Interestingly, Clemson owns nine of the worst 15 season free throw performances for the conference.
  2. Charlotte Observer and Greensboro News-Record: You know things are serious when Roy Williams takes off his jacket (or takes out his BB gun). The normally composed coach tossed his outerwear in a (successful) attempt to inspire his team against Wisconsin. Just because they needed a little extra fire, don’t think the win wasn’t hugely important for the Tar Heels. Perhaps the most interesting part about the win was that it hinged on UNC’s defense. Normally, it’s the other side of Tobacco Road that flaunts an elite defense, while Williams’ teams prefer to steamroll opponents on offense. This year is different. And to Kendall Marshall’s credit he covered Jordan Taylor for the majority of the game against the Badgers, pushing the All-American into a 6-20 shooting night.
  3. Winston-Salem Journal: The ACC/Big 10 Challenge showcased one elite conference and another that needs a lot of work. Unfortunately, the ACC was the latter. Apart from wins from Virginia and Wake Forest, the conference didn’t manage any upset victories. When North Carolina ekes out a win over a lower-ranked team at the Dean Dome is a highlight, it’s clear that the winds have changed from the decade of dominance the ACC showed during the opening years of the challenge. Mostly, I think, it’s a sign of so many new coaches in the league. Most programs’ success ebbs and flows; it just so happens that many of the ACC’s programs are currently ebbing.
  4. Charlotte Observer: The end of the NC State game was a little more controversial than Mark Gottfried would have liked. Specifically, the Wolfpack coach took issue with a flagrant one foul on Scott Wood that gave the Hoosiers an extra possession with three minutes left in the second half. Gottfried’s argument was that Wood went for the ball, which is true. It’s also true that Wood used both hands, which made the play look like Wood was trying to wrap up the Indiana player — especially from the referee’s angle. The call was a big one (and the wrong one, even if it was a judgment call).
  5. Fayetteville Observer: North Carolina‘s most consistent shooter, PJ Hairston, tweeted that he will miss the Kentucky game Saturday because of a sprained wrist suffered during the win over Wisconsin. That’s a blow to the Tar Heels, as Hairston has been the team’s best shooter so far this season at 45% from behind the arc. The loss shouldn’t be back-breaking though, as Reggie Bullock and (to some extent) Harrison Barnes are also good shooters and athletic wings.

EXTRA: If you’ve got a spare minute (or 20, actually) check out Shane Ryan’s interview with John Feinstein on his newest book, which is a retrospective of his first ten books. Feinstein is a Duke alumnus who’s written books on everything from college basketball to tennis. The interview is incredibly long, but just as interesting.

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Behind the Numbers: Who Is Killing Their Own Team?

Posted by KCarpenter on December 1st, 2011

A lot of the effort in basketball analytics goes towards the good things that players do that do not appear in the box score. This is the driving idea behind Michael Lewis’s seminal New York Times feature, “The No-Stats All-Star,” an early look at analytics in the NBA primarily focused on Darryl Morey, Shane Battier, the Houston Rockets, and adjusted plus/minus. This makes sense: finding hidden strengths is the coach’s angle while finding hidden value is the economist’s angle. As a result of the fine work of smart guys with formulas and others with a willingness to watch a lot of games closely, Charles Jenkins and Nate Wolters were household names last season. This, of course, assumes that your household is filled with basketball dorks, but you get the idea.

Faried Was An Underappreciated Star

Finding diamonds in the rough is a noble pursuit and talking up the greatness of underexposed and underrated players is a worthwhile task (Hey there, Kenneth Faried!). Sometimes, however, there is a joy in using analytics and “advanced” statistics to look for the guy who is hurting his team the most.  Let’s ignore the diamonds and go straight for the rough.

How does a player hurt his team? Well, when push comes to shove, there are basically only two ways: offensively and defensively. Sadly, however, contemporary box scores assign no grade for bad defense to the individual outside of counting how many fouls (which could very well be offensive) a player commits. Our primary understanding of player’s individual defense comes only in positive contributions like blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds while the effect on an opponents shooting percentage is measured at a team level. The noble effort of Luke Winn, David Hess, and others that has sought to enact Dean Oliver’s defensive charting schemes is a good start at really quantifying individual defense, but a very small percentage of Division I games have been looked at in this way making the approach of limited use to someone who wants to look at the whole of college basketball. So, acknowledging that analytic approaches to finding bad defensive players are limited, let’s at least take a quick look at fouls.

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Night Line: How Far Can Wisconsin’s Unique System Carry Them?

Posted by EJacoby on December 1st, 2011


Evan Jacoby is an RTC columnist. You can find him 
@evanJacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s slate of games.

Every year, Wisconsin head coach Bo Ryan finds a way to turn a collection of mostly unheralded individual players into an overachieving team, thanks to a well-designed playing style that values time of possession and situational playmaking. This season appears to be no different, and in fact might be the ultimate example of the perfect Wisconsin system. Bo’s Badgers suffered their first loss of the season on Wednesday night at No. 4 North Carolina, yet the team nearly pulled out a victory against a team it never stood a chance against, at least on paper. Once the ball tips off, Wisconsin dominates the pace of games, and this team does one thing better than any other – it limits their opponents’ possessions. This style almost took down UNC tonight, and it should lead to victories against nearly any other team.

They Lost to UNC, But Wisconsin's Defense Should Lead to Many Victories (AP/G. Broome)

This is Bo Ryan basketball; a slowed-down version of the game that may not be the most entertaining for casual fans to enjoy, but is fascinating for basketball purists to watch. A Wisconsin tilt this season averages out to a 60-possession game, which is the lowest pace in the country. They have the best defensive efficiency (83.5) and lowest turnover rate (8.1 per game) in the nation as well. They have a fearless leader in preseason All-America point guard Jordan Taylor, and he orchestrates the team on both ends of the floor. Even though the Badgers got outrebounded on Wednesday by 13 against North Carolina, and they hardly ever got to the free throw line (six attempts), limiting their opponent’s offensive opportunities gave them a reasonable chance to win in the final few minutes. Few teams that Wisconsin plays will be as gifted offensively as UNC, so they should be able to prevent more points against other teams by employing this style.

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ACC Game On: 11.30.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on November 30th, 2011

Duke got a shellacking from a very good Ohio State team who managed to deny the ball to and otherwise nullify the efficient scoring triumvirate of Ryan Kelly, Seth Curry, and Andre Dawkins who combined to score seven points (all Curry’s) before a disgusted Mike Krzyzewski benched the trio. On the other end, the Blue Devils were unable to stop a brutally efficient Buckeye offense that shot 59.3% from the field and included four players scoring over seventeen points. Other Big Ten beat downs were provided by Northwestern who stomped Georgia Tech with John Shurna‘s versatile offensive game and Purdue who simply devastated Miami with good looks at the basket and even better shooting. Maryland had the lead over Illinois for a nice chunk of that game, but Nick Faust’s trigger happy ways (2-11 shooting) continue to hurt the Terrapins as the Illini rallied to win the game.

The ACC Needs To Reassert Itself After Last Night's Disaster (Credit: AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

On a positive note, Virginia got a quality win against Michigan in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers locked down Tim Hardaway Jr., holding him to only five points, while managing to get to the charity stripe at a much greater rate than Michigan. The Wolverines shot better from the field and better from the three-point line than Virginia, but making seventeen free throws while Michigan made only four gave the Wahoos the win. The other ACC silver-lining comes courtesy of Clemson which managed an impressive showing on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. Iowa simply had no answer for Andre Young’s five three-pointers and another ridiculous all-round game from Tanner Smith who had only seven points, but managed to get fourteen rebounds and eight assists.

Tonight’s the second night of the Challenge and the ACC has a steep hill to climb. The conference would have to win five of tonight’s six games to outright win. That seems like a tall order, but let’s at least look at the match-ups.

The Heavyweight Match-Up

  • #7 Wisconsin at #4 North Carolina at 9:30 PM on ESPN

This is a big one. The former overwhelming #1 takes on a Wisconsin team that’s been nipping at the heels of the nation’s top teams. A win in Chapel Hill would go a long way towards showing that the Badgers belong in the National Championship conversation. A refocused Tar Heel squad hopes to bounce back from their loss to UNLV and show the world that they mean business and that they are ready to take all comers. Much more about the contest here.

The Undercard

  • Indiana at North Carolina State at 7:15 PM on ESPN2
  • Virginia Tech at Minnesota at 9:15 PM on ESPN2

North Carolina State showed that they weren’t scared of the big boys by taking down Texas, but Indiana is an even tougher match-up. The resurgent Hoosiers have managed to put together a sterling campaign early in the year, including a big win over Butler, and some of the gaudiest shooting percentages in the sport. Indiana is the better team, but the Wolfpack has been battle-tested and has shown flashes of potential that hint at a team that’s on the rise. Indiana should win, but there’s something about the ferocity of this NC State team that makes me think that if Indiana comes out sluggish, they are simply toast.

Meanwhile, in the frigid north, Virginia Tech has good shot at taking down a short-handed Minnesota team. With the injury to Trevor Mbakwe, it’s no longer clear that the Golden Gophers can even be considered the favorites in this game. Playing at home helps, but the Hokies have showed toughness in taking down Oklahoma State and were impressive against Syracuse, even if they didn’t get the win. Erick Green and Dorenzo Hudson are quickly meshing into a lethal back court unit while Dorian Finney-Smith‘s versatility from the forward spot continues to impress. I think Virginia Tech wins this one, but with the injury to Mbakwe and the loss to Dayton, Minnesota has too much to prove to go down quietly.

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North Carolina Looks to Bounce Back Against Wisconsin

Posted by KCarpenter on November 30th, 2011

After a tough loss to UNLV, North Carolina faces a tough match-up if it wants to bounce back: a slow, methodical, and lethal Wisconsin Badgers. Though Bo Ryan‘s team has yet to be truly tested, with the best win on its résumé a neutral court win over the Jimmer-less Brigham Young University, Wisconsin’s style seems tailor-made to challenge the Tar Heels.

The two teams are diametrically opposed in terms of pace with the Badgers plying at the slowest pace in Division I and North Carolina playing at the fifth quickest. North Carolina’s primary struggle against the Rebels was difficulty defending the three-point line; Wisconsin has shot 47.2% from beyond the arc on the season. The Badgers aren’t shy about shooting the long ball either, shooting 42.6% of all field goals from long range. North Carolina was exposed on Saturday as a team that wasn’t prepared to adequately defend the perimeter and if Roy Williams hasn’t corrected this issue, the Tar Heels are in for a long night.

Jordan Taylor Leads A Wisconsin Team With Few Weaknesses

Defensively, Wisconsin has been stout. For the past few years, Wisconsin has had a reputation as an incredible defensive club, and while the Badgers have been good, the defensive prowess of the team has been overrated because of an over reliance on “points per game” and “scoring margin.” Since 2009, Wisconsin has combined a sloth-like pace with brutally efficient offense  and good, but not great defense. Folks see the low final score and the impressive scoring margin and figure that the team locked down their opponent. In recent history, that’s not really been the case. This year, however, the defensive reputation has been earned albeit against an extremely weak schedule.

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Night Line: Big Ten Proving Superior to ACC and the Rest

Posted by EJacoby on November 30th, 2011

Evan Jacoby is an RTC columnist. You can find him @evanJacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s slate of games.

The major focus on day one of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge was the thrashing suffered by No. 5 Duke in Columbus at the hands of No. 2 Ohio State. But before the Buckeyes finished off their 85-63 beatdown of the Devils, fellow Big Ten schools Northwestern, Illinois, and Purdue had already completed at least nine-point victories of their own. The Big Ten now holds a 4-2 advantage over the ACC at the halfway point of the competition, and its teams are favored in five of the six remaining games on Wednesday. The Big Ten has only won this inter-conference challenge twice in its 12-year history, and never by more than a single win. We could be looking at the first-ever convincing Big Ten victory in the event, and it’s fitting given the strength and depth of the league this year.

While Beating Duke, OSU's Jared Sullinger Proves He's the Best Player in the Best Conference (Credit: Jay LaPrete, AP)

With Ohio State’s domination of Duke, the Big Ten clearly outclassed the ACC in a battle of two of its top teams. The Buckeyes improved to 7-0 on the season, one of five undefeated teams in the conference, and that includes Illinois and Northwestern, both of whom won convincing road games on Tuesday over Maryland and Georgia Tech, respectively. Neither team has looked spectacular as of yet, but both the Illini and Wildcats are building solid non-conference resumes to boost the Big Ten’s early RPI ratings. Purdue’s win over Miami improved the Boilermakers to 7-1 on the year, with a loss only to a very good Alabama team, and Robbie Hummel is leading the push for Matt Painter’s team to return again to the NCAA Tournament.

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Ball Reversal: ACC/Big Ten Challenge

Posted by zhayes9 on November 29th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Feast Week is one of my favorite portions of the college basketball season. There’s no better way to celebrate Thanksgiving than hunkering down on the couch, flipping through various tournaments and getting that first glimpse at intriguing players and programs around the country. As enjoyable as those matchups may have been — from Duke outlasting Kansas in a Maui classic to UCF shocking UConn in the Bahamas — this upcoming week is even more delectable. Look no further than the perennially awesome batch of games courtesy of the incomparable ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Here are the five headlining matchups accompanied by the biggest key for victory for both teams:

Will Plumlee's defense frustrate Sullinger tonight?

Duke at Ohio State (Tuesday, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

How Duke wins: Repeat performance from Mason Plumlee. One of the most compelling post battles of the early season was undoubtedly Kansas’ Thomas Robinson banging bodies with Plumlee in the post during the Maui final last Wednesday night. Robinson finished with his usual double-double, but Plumlee’s athleticism, size and tremendous post defense limited the centerpiece of the Jayhawks offense to six field goals in 36 minutes. His coach was certainly impressed, calling Plumlee’s efforts to contain Robinson “the key to the game” and declaring that although Ryan Kelly took home MVP honors, Duke doesn’t beat Kansas without Plumlee’s post defense. Life in the paint doesn’t get any easier for Plumlee on Tuesday against near-unanimous preseason All-American Jared Sullinger, but if there has been a chink in the armor for Sully, it has come when facing an athletic post big that can force him off the block. Duke is a heavy ball-screen action team that loves to spread the floor with their plethora of capable shooters. If Plumlee can muscle Sullinger away from a comfortable position on the floor and force him to exert energy defending high ball screens, he’ll be much less effective and Duke will take a big step towards garnering another huge early season triumph.

How Ohio State wins: Dribble penetration from their guards. If there’s one glaring weakness that painfully obvious through Duke’s first handful of games, it is perimeter defense out of their guard triumvirate Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins and Austin Rivers. From Belmont’s Kerron Johnson to Michigan’s Trey Burke to Kansas’ Tyshawn Taylor, opposing guards have had a field day breaking down Duke’s guards through dribble penetration. Duke’s best on-ball defender is actually reserve guard Tyler Thornton, so much that Coach K sat Rivers down the stretch against Kansas in favor of Thornton and his defensive acumen. Ohio State’s backcourt, specifically Aaron Craft, offensive-minded reserve Shannon Scott and wing William Buford, must maintain an aggressive mentality for 40 minutes. Craft could be especially effective against Curry, the weakest of the lot, with his repertoire of hesitation dribbles and ability to get into the late and draw help, while Duke doesn’t have a clear matchup against the 6’6” Buford and his explosive scoring ability.

Wisconsin at North Carolina (Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

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RTC Top 25: Week Three

Posted by KDoyle on November 28th, 2011

As good as the games were last week with many upsets and teams taking the country by storm—looking at you UNLV, Harvard, Creighton, and St. Louis—this week has the potential to be even better with eight games pitting Top 25 teams against each other. A scary thought considering the strong dosage of hoops we saw over the Thanksgiving holiday. The big shocker of the week came in Vegas as UNLV knocked North Carolina off their pedestal. As a result, Kentucky was a unanimous #1, but will be challenged by UNC later this week. Not to be outdone by the Rebels are Harvard and St. Louis who posted several impressive wins and have climbed into the poll as well. QnD after the jump…

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North Carolina Lost To UNLV And We Shouldn’t Be Surprised

Posted by KCarpenter on November 27th, 2011

There is a formula for an upset, and it is as old as the three-point line: make your shots from beyond the arc, slow the pace, and play physical, punishing defense. UNLV did two of the three, opting to keep the pace up, but their execution was perfect. Since last season, the flaws of this North Carolina team have been no secret: John Henson and Tyler Zeller get frustrated by strong physical defense, Kendall Marshall is a mediocre on-ball defender, and the UNC defensive system that relies heavily on rotations and recovery is susceptible to three-point shots from the weak-side, particularly after collapsing against a drive. If you are experiencing an odd sense of déjà vu, it is because this is almost exactly the blueprint that Kentucky exploited to beat the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight. It worked then, it worked last night, and there is a good chance that it will work in the future.

Marshall's On-Ball Defense Will Remain A Liability in North Carolina's Defensive Scheme

Specifically the near future. Against Wisconsin on Tuesday, North Carolina will be dealing with one of the nation’s stingiest interior defenses, coupled with elite three-point shooting, and a punishingly controlled tempo. Kentucky’s surplus of talent becomes more apparent each and every game and the Wildcats ability to play tough, muscular defense as well as athletic guard play seems designed to give the Tar Heels fits. North Carolina was going to go into both of these games regardless as the underdog, regardless of who won in Vegas or what the polls said. Both of these match-ups are tough, and weirdly, by losing on Saturday, North Carolina should be able to go into these two games with appropriately readjusted expectations.

This can be a very good thing. The 2005 team’s season-opening loss to Santa Clara had the eventual national champions on the defensive, playing catch-up all year against an Illinois team that nearly went undefeated in the regular season. The 2007 Elite Eight team lost to Gonzaga in November. Last year’s squad lost to Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Illinois, and Texas in a span of a month yet finished the season playing in the Elite Eight while all of these other teams were sitting at home. Roy Williams-coached squads, for a variety of reasons, often lose in the fall. Last night’s loss, or even a series of three straight losses by this time  last week might feel terrible for North Carolina, but it won’t be as meaningful as pundits might say (excepting a series of blowouts). Teams grow and change between November and March, and a loss or three won’t cripple the psyche of this young team. Losses don’t hurt forever especially in November games.

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