RTC Top 25: Week Three
Posted by KDoyle on November 28th, 2011As good as the games were last week with many upsets and teams taking the country by storm—looking at you UNLV, Harvard, Creighton, and St. Louis—this week has the potential to be even better with eight games pitting Top 25 teams against each other. A scary thought considering the strong dosage of hoops we saw over the Thanksgiving holiday. The big shocker of the week came in Vegas as UNLV knocked North Carolina off their pedestal. As a result, Kentucky was a unanimous #1, but will be challenged by UNC later this week. Not to be outdone by the Rebels are Harvard and St. Louis who posted several impressive wins and have climbed into the poll as well. QnD after the jump…
QnD Analysis:
High Risers and Big Droppers—Not only did UNLV break into this week’s Top 25, but they elevated themselves right into the thick of the poll coming in at #16. Prior to this week, UNLV received only a token number of votes into the Top 25, but they made their way into all eight of our pollsters ballots this week—defeating the #1 team in the nation in resounding fashion will do that. Missouri climbed nine spots from #22 to #13 after posting impressive victories against California and Notre Dame with a 34-point average margin of victory in these wins that really caught our eye. After tough losses to Michigan and Georgetown in Maui, Memphis tumbled out of the Top 25 entirely. No shame in losing to the preceding teams, but the Tigers’ interior defense was exposed in a big way while competing in Hawaii.
Where to rank UNLV?—Just how high should UNLV be ranked after their big win over Carolina? Most of our pollsters have them in the 15-18 range, although they are as high as #10 in one poll and check in at #25 in two others. Was the win over UNC more of a fluke, or is UNLV for real? We will find out soon as two of their next four games come against Wichita State and Wisconsin. One thing is for sure, that offense is scary good when it gets rolling.
Four new faces—UNLV, Harvard, Creighton, and St. Louis have flown under the radar for much of the season, but all made a big splash onto the national scene in a big way in the past week. Taking down teams from BCS conferences left and right has catapulted these four into the Top 25—all very well-deserving.
Top 25 Games of the Week:
Last week was tabbed as “Feast Week” throughout college basketball with an array of holiday tournaments, but it sure seems like the week after Thanksgiving is more of a feast. Get a load of all of these games between ranked teams:
- #1 Kentucky vs. #4 North Carolina—This one was pegged as the de facto Game of the Year in the preseason. Something tells me Roy Williams and Co. will deliver their best punch to Kentucky following a disappointing loss to UNLV.
- #2 Ohio State vs. #5 Duke—The marquee game of the 2011 edition of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge features two Top 5 teams. Will Duke have any hangover effects from Maui? Probably not as it won’t be hard to get up for this game. Plus, would Coach K ever allow his team to come out flat in a game of this magnitude?
- #3 Syracuse vs. #6 Florida—The Orange have largely played a cream puff schedule to date—although Virginia Tech and Stanford appear to be solid teams—as Syracuse welcomes Florida to the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome. A shame that recent allegations and turmoil with the Bernie Fine saga will be an ongoing storyline during one of the best non-conference games of the season.
- #4 North Carolina vs. #7 Wisconsin—The road for North Carolina doesn’t get much easier after their date with UNLV as Wisconsin comes to town. The Tar Heels really struggled defending the Rebs’ high-flying offense; now let’s see how they do scoring against Wisconsin’s vaunted defense.
- #7 Wisconsin vs. #17 Marquette—An in-state rivalry game that seems to have gotten better by the year as both programs have elevated themselves to “elite” status. Wisconsin has the opportunity to sneak into the Top 5 with two victories this week.
- #9 Louisville vs. #20 Vanderbilt—Louisville hasn’t played anyone of great note yet, and Vanderbilt has been rather unimpressive in the early going considering all of the hype they received in the preseason—a real “show me” game for both squads.
- #12 Xavier vs. #20 Vanderbilt—Both Xavier and Vanderbilt have their schedules filled with Top 25 teams for the week. One team will get off on the right foot, while the other will be scrambling not go 0-2 for the week.
- #12 Xavier vs. #23 Purdue—Tu Holloway and Robbie Hummel meet in a showdown as two of college basketball’s best duke it out. Although wins over Iona and Temple down in Puerto Rico, Purdue has yet to earn that big-name win yet, they’ll have a great opportunity to earn that “W” in Ohio on Saturday.
Also Receiving Votes—A total of eight teams sit just outside of the Top 25 as Memphis, Florida State, and Mississippi State all dropped out of the poll. It was tough luck for the Bulldogs as they went 3-0 on the week, but were leapfrogged by teams who picked up more impressive victories.
Conference Call—Big East (5), SEC (4), Big 10 (4), Big 12 (3), ACC (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Pac-12 (1), WCC (1), WAC (1), Missouri Valley (1), Ivy League (1)
Baylor is one of the more difficult teams to judge right now IMO…. You guys seem to agree. Two voters have them in top-6, two others have them at 17. I’m interested in hearing why the two 17 voters have teams like Cal (a team that got spanked by 40 points last week) and Vandy (already upset once, nearly twice) ranked higher.
Baylor gets Perry Jones back now, and Gary Franklin is eligible on Dec. 14, and by then we will be looking at one of the deepest teams in the country…. With tremendous interior size and scoring, if they can just find the right combo of guards to play well together, I think this is a sure top-10 team.
Well I’m the only one with Cal and Vandy ahead of Baylor so I’ll make my case.
Baylor went 18-13 (7-9) last year. They haven’t played a difficult schedule and the turnover problems from last year are still there. I’m also not convinced Baylor has the defense or chemistry to be a top team. The additions of Brady Heslip, Quincy Miller and Pierre Jackson obviously help a lot but I want this team to prove it can play together before I reward them with a high ranking. Talent isn’t always everything.
I like California a lot. The Bears have Allen Crabbe, a leader in Jorge Gutierrez, a nice post player in Harper Kamp and a coach so much better than Scott Drew it isn’t even funny. Add in solid role players like David Kravish and Richard Solomon and you have the makings of a very strong team. The Bears also play in a weaker league where they’ll be able to rack up more wins and gain confidence. One loss to a red hot Missouri team (in November, mind you) isn’t going to give me second thoughts.
Vanderbilt is a question mark but I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt until Festus Ezeli returns. Their awful post defense isn’t all because of Ezeli but it has a lot to do with him being out. Vandy may very well lose tonight but this is a team that I think will get better and better. I do have defensive concerns with them but I think they’ll be just fine.
I agree on all counts on Baylor and California.
How quickly we forget that BU fielded an NBA starting lineup last year, too, and still bombed. Same thing happened in 2008-09 with Drew’s program. Of course, you’ve got to look at the bad with the good, and he went to the Elite Eight when Udoh arrived. Big question marks there, I’m hesitant to even have them in the top-25, as radical as that sounds.
Cal’s fine. Those guys couldn’t have looked worse against Missouri, but like you said, it’s November and weird stuff happens. Mike Montgomery is probably the most criminally underrated coach in the entire nation since he’s been out of the limelight for awhile, but there’s no doubt in my mind his team will compete for the Pac-12. His teams always play well. They pass well, defend well, and play smart basketball (I mean, they go to Berkeley, after all). Simple as that… they’ll be fine.
Solid arguments & I agree with the both of you on much here, especially Cal… I’ve liked them to win the Pac-12 since preseason and they’re going to be there. Smart point not to overreact too much to the one Mizzou loss (in KC, in November, etc)…..
Anyway as far as Baylor goes, I do think there’s something different about this team than last year. Like both of you said they tanked last year. But like you said two years ago they’re in the E8, came close to beating Duke; a team founded on its massive interior. This year they have the players to make that the formula. No more LaceDarius Dunn taking 20 shots a game, this team can run through Quincy Miller and Perry Jones, two absolute studs… Plus Acy. What a front line.
If they can just find out their best all-around guards (and they have so many to choose from), the formula is there. We’re yet to see Jones yet which again makes them hard to judge, so I guess it’s a matter of opinion/prediction for now
And with all that said, Baylor’s still the #10 team in our consensus ranks – and haven’t really played anyone or had Perry Jones – so it’s all fair. Good to hear the different perspectives on teams at this time of year.
And I’m the guy who has had Baylor the highest all season so I’ll respond. For me it was addition by subtraction with Dunn. Whether it turns out that Jackson/Franklin can lead that team is up for debate, but if he can, I like them to make some noise both in the B12 and nationally this year. I agree talent isn’t always everything, which explains why I had UNC #4 in the preseason and Vandy down in the low teens or early 20s (can’t remember exactly). I may end up regretting my gut choice on Baylor, but I think that Drew will figure out this team this season.
As for Cal, I’ll go ahead and warn you both b/c I see them at least a half dozen times a year in person. They’re a really good team when nobody is watching them. As soon as the spotlight finds them, as it did last week vs. Missouri, you see what happens. That’s been Cal’s MO for years now, and usually the self-destruction is painful and ugly. So that’s my warning on the Bears (and MM is a tremendous coach, agreed), so take it however you like.
The same is true to a certain extent with Vandy. Top notch talent that can’t get out of the first round. Clearly a psychological issue going on with the Commodores when they’re expected to perform. Ezeli can’t help but make them better, but does anyone trust them to play into the NCAA’s second weekend short of a superb draw? Not me, and tonight’s game sorta exemplifies what I expect out of the two programs — XU and Vandy. One consistently overperforms, the other consistently underperforms.
I think Cal’s the best team in the Pac-12 right now, albeit by a small margin. That said, I don’t think there’s a team in the Pac-12 that deserves to be ranked in the top 35, let alone the top 25.
I think Arizona and Washington will get there by the end of the season, and I reserve judgment on OSU and Stanford, but that whole conference has got a lot to prove to everyone before they earn any type of love.
Regarding Vandy, when does Stallings start to take some heat? We always hear people say he’s a terrific coach but what proof do we have? He hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2007 and is averaging 19.6 wins and 12.3 losses in 12 seasons at Vanderbilt. His teams have never played good defense (last time they were top 50 in efficiency was 2005) and to me, you can’t be a great coach if your team doesn’t play defense.
Based on the numbers, I’d say he’s a better than average coach but he isn’t anything special. Is it because he worked under Gene Keady and Roy Williams?
It’s Vanderbilt – not exactly a hotbed of basketball tradition. That school has won 20 games twelve times in 112 years, Stallings was the head coach for six of those seasons. They’ve made 12 NCAA tournaments, five under Stallings. They’ve won nine tournament games ever, four under Stallings.
If he was at a school with great basketball tradition, maybe his seat warms up just slightly. At Vanderbilt, he gets tenure.
Yeah, I’d generally agree with tthat. Vandy fans are happy with the occasional upset as a result of Memorial Magic, regular NCAA Tournament trips, and generally keeping their players out of trouble (cf. with Memphis and Tennessee). He’s a pretty average coach in my view, but that’s one job where average, even in the SEC, can get you a long-term job.