The ACC regular season wrapped up on Saturday and things went mostly according to plan with home favorites winning six of the seven contests. The lone road underdog to triumph was Wake Forest boosting its NCAA Tournament hopes with a nice comeback win at Virginia Tech. In one of the season’s most exciting games, North Carolina earned revenge for an earlier loss at Duke defeating the Blue Devils on Saturday night in the Smith Center. In other important action, Louisville and Florida State clinched double-byes in the upcoming ACC Tournament by beating Notre Dame and Miami, respectively. Syracuse also routed Georgia Tech in the Carrier Dome in what was effectively an NCAA Tournament elimination game. Here are the highlights of the weekend around the ACC.

After Saturday night’s win over Duke, Roy Williams celebrated North Carolina’s second consecutive outright ACC regular season title (Getty/Streeter Lecka)

• Best Win I: Even though North Carolina had already clinched the ACC regular season title, the Tar Heels still had much at stake in its annual season-ending meeting with Duke. In using a late-game spurt to beat the Blue Devils, Roy Williams’ club avenged an earlier loss and moved considerably closer to clinching a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The game was a riveting back-and-forth affair with great individual performances on both sides. Luke Kennard made his case for ACC Player of the Year by leading the Blue Devils with 28 points, but his efforts were not enough to overcome outstanding performances from North Carolina’s Joel Berry (28 points including 5-of-5 on threes) and Isaiah Hicks (21 points, nine rebounds). Another difference this time came in the form of North Carolina’s improved perimeter defense. Duke punished the Tar Heels from beyond the arc with 13 three-pointers several weeks ago; on Saturday, the Blue Devils managed only 7-of-19 from deep.

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Here are a few things to keep your eye on around the ACC this weekend (all times Eastern).

Saturday, 2:00 PM: Notre Dame at Louisville The Fighting Irish have quietly fired off six straight victories (thanks in part to an incredibly soft portion of the schedule), but they now sit alone in second place and can lock down the #2 seed with a win at Louisville this afternoon. This version of Mike Brey’s squad is nearly unbeatable if it makes three-pointers at a high clip and protects the ball. Over the past six games, Notre Dame is shooting 38 percent from three-point range and averaging fewer than nine turnovers per game. In their first meeting with the Cardinals — a 77-70 win in South Bend — the Irish attempted a season-low 12 three-pointers (making five) but converted 22-of-25 attempts from the free throw line. They’ll need to knock down more long-range shots than that today if they want to walk out of the Yum! Center with a victory.

Can John Collins pull together another dominant performance for the Demon Deacons against Virginia Tech today? (Brian Westeholt/Wake Sports)

Saturday, 4:30 PM: Wake Forest at Virginia Tech. Wake Forest’s tournament resume has been beaten to death for having all the requisite components (good computer numbers; no bad losses; a solid performance in the best conference in the country) except a signature win. The Demon Deacons finally checked that box when they beat Louisville in Winston-Salem earlier this week. Today’s trip to Blacksburg is another good opportunity for Wake to earn a win over another likely NCAA Tournament team, and for John Collins to make his final statement for ACC Player of the Year. Collins has been terrific all season but the sophomore has taken it to another level recently. In his last six games, Collins is averaging 25.7 points, 11.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game while shooting 65 percent from the field and 77 percent from the line. The big man leads the nation in Player Efficiency Rating (36.7) and paces the ACC in effective field goal percentage (61.9%) and Win Shares per 40 minutes (26.2). Against a Hokies team that doesn’t have a lot of size, look for Collins to finish off his incredible season with an exclamation point.

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Here is the latest edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we will look at the how ACC teams have performed in the nail-biter games — conference games decided by one or two possessions. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that means for each team’s postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Wednesday, March 1.

Current Standings

Hats off to North Carolina for clinching at least a share of the ACC regular season title for the second straight season and for the eighth time in Roy Williams’ 14-year tenure at the school. The Tar Heels took advantage of a scheduling imbalance in their favor this year, with only three road games coming versus the top nine schools in the ACC standings. Despite being generally regarded as the ACC’s sixth best team in both the efficiency metrics and the national polls, Notre Dame sits alone in second place in the standings. With the Irish traveling to Louisville this weekend, though, the odds are against Mike Brey’s squad in catching the Heels. If all the home favorites win their games this weekend, Virginia Tech could rise all the way to the #5 seed in next week’s ACC Tournament, even with a likely negative points per possession margin. See below for how Buzz Williams’ guys have made this a legitimate possibility.

Advanced Stat of the Week: Performance In Close Games

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One of the prevailing narratives that has developed during the second half of this season is the existence of a historically weak crop of bubble teams. The bubble, by its very definition, is a fluid concept where a 68-team field consisting of 37 at-large teams necessarily limits the strength of the group. For whatever reason, though, this season’s bubble dwellers have earned a reputation as a particularly futile bunch. To explore the veracity of that claim, I reviewed the last seven NCAA Tournament bubbles (2011-17). This includes every NCAA Tournament since the 2011 implementation of the First Four, which added three additional teams to the at-large field. For this year’s bubble, I used ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s Last Four In and his first two out from the bracket released on Monday, February 27 — teams included were USC, Providence, Marquette, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.

There are several clear takeaways here. First, the 2017 bubble does in fact feature the worst aggregate winning percentage and average RPI of the last seven years, along with the second-worst average KenPom ranking. In comparison with the last six years, this group of six bubble teams is statistically weaker than other years relative to the higher levels of automatic qualifiers. The most important finding, though, can be found in the far right column. This season’s bubble teams have all played very difficult schedules, nearly cutting the average bubble member’s strength of schedule rating in half. That’s notable because this season’s six bubble teams are from power conferences, while 19 of the 36 bubble teams from 2011-16 came from the mid-major world. That group included schools like Middle Tennessee, Tulsa, Colorado State, Iona, BYU (twice), Boise State (twice) and Oral Roberts.

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A couple of Saturdays ago at Cameron Indoor Stadium, Wake Forest gave Duke all it could handle before eventually falling by five points in an exciting ACC shootout. The Demon Deacons followed that disappointment up with a comeback home victory over Pittsburgh, which improved their record to 16-12 overall and 7-9 in the ACC. Going into tonight’s home game against Louisville, Danny Manning‘s third team in Winston-Salem sits among Jerry Palm’s First Four In and Joe Lunardi’s First Four Out. The Deacs pass the eye test with an emerging star in sophomore big man John Collins and a host of additional young players playing beyond their years, but their resume still contains one glaring vacancy that a win over the Cardinals would undoubtedly resolve. With a dismal mark of 0-8 against the RPI top 25, Wake Forest’s best win came over Miami (FL) in mid-January and there are few remaining opportunities to notch an attention-grabbing signature win.

Wake Forest’s John Collins has emerged as the ACC’s best big man. (Brian Westeholt/Wake Sports)

For a program that has not sniffed meaningful postseason basketball since 2010, Manning acutely diagnosed his team’s mental hurdle after the loss at Duke: “We have to continue. We have to find a way. There are no close victories. There are no close feel-goods. There’s none of that. We have to find a way to get it done for the rest of our conference games.” If Wake Forest is to find that elusive quality win tonight against Louisville, it will assuredly be on the merits of an offense that ranks 11th nationally, per KenPom. The Demon Deacons’ defense (131st nationally) is still a work in progress, but with Collins quickly proving to be the ACC’s most talented big man and a number of capable shooters spotting up around him, a defense that bends but doesn’t break may be all they need.

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Thanks to Clemson’s brutal tendency to drop tight game after tight game along with Virginia Tech’s big home win over Miami on Monday night, the ACC bubble picture has become less murky in the middle. Eight teams are now certifiable locks for the NCAA Tournament, and it appears that the Big East’s 2011 record of sending 11 teams dancing will be safe for another year. The league, however, still has a reasonable chance at getting 10 invitations on Selection Sunday, which would be quite a feat. Here’s where the bubble stands a little less than two weeks out from Selection Sunday. (KenPom rankings are after Monday night’s games.)

LOCKS (8): North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech

BUBBLE (3)

The Orange are right on the brink of grabbing its dance shoes. (Getty)

• Syracuse (17-13, 9-8 ACC, KenPom #51). If the Orange make the NCAA Tournament, they will look back on John Gillon‘s banked-in buzzer-beater against Duke as the reason why. The institution of “The Gillon Rule” gave Jim Boeheim‘s team a third signature home victory to go with big earlier wins over Florida State and Virginia. If Syracuse takes care of business at home against Georgia Tech this weekend, the Orange are probably going to make the field regardless of their ACC Tournament performance. A loss and things get considerably murkier. This week: Georgia Tech (3/4)

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Saturday was a great day for visiting ACC teams with one notable exception – Miami celebrated its Senior Day by beating Duke in a 55-50 defensive struggle. Road teams on Saturday came out on top everywhere else. North Carolina wrapped up the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament by winning at Pittsburgh; Florida State crushed Clemson’s NCAA at-large bid hopes; and Virginia ended its four-game losing streak by besting N.C. State. Home teams had better results on Sunday as Louisville handled Syracuse and Notre Dame topped Georgia Tech. Here are the highlights of the weekend around the ACC.

Jim Larranaga has now led Miami to four straight ACC victories, including Saturday’s win over Duke.
(David Santiago-miamiherald.com)

• Best Win: Prior to last week, Miami had been flying under the radar even with a cleary upward trajectory in the ACC. But after back-to-back upset wins over ranked opponents — at Virginia on Monday and at home against Duke on Saturday — the Hurricanes are finally getting some deserving national attention. Against the Blue Devils, Jim Larranaga’s club found a way to win despite shooting just 38.0 percent from the floor and giving up 21 offensive rebounds. Its defense saved the day, holding Duke to its lowest single-game point total in over eight years. The Hurricanes are now in a fifth-place tie with Duke in the ACC standings, and they still have a shot at a top-four finish and the ACC Tournament double-bye that comes along with it.

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Here is the latest edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we will look at the most extreme example of home court advantage in the ACC. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that means for each teams’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Wednesday, February 22.

Current Standings

Thanks to Wednesday’s home win over Louisville, North Carolina has now taken the lead in efficiency margin to go along with its two-game cushion in the standings. Efficiency margins confirm that the Tar Heels and the Cardinals are the two best teams in the league, so we should not be surprised if they meet again in the ACC Tournament championship game. If neither squad loses until March 11, one of the NCAA’s #1 seeds would probably be on the line that Saturday night. The standings match up well with efficiency at this point, with two notable exceptions – Virginia has played quite a bit better than its record indicates, while Virginia Tech appears to be very fortunate to be 8-7 in league play. Perhaps the hottest team in the league right now is Miami, as the Hurricanes have posted seven victories in their last nine outings.

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Last week was an important one for the ACC bubble, a trend that is likely to continue through the rest of the regular season. With no fewer than seven ACC locks and five more teams circulating around the bubble, the league still has a reasonable shot at tying or beating the Big East’s record 11 teams sent to the NCAA Tournament in 2011. Here’s where the bubble stands three weeks out from Selection Sunday. (KenPom rankings and team records through Monday night.)

LOCKS: (6): North Carolina, Louisville, Duke, Notre Dame, Florida State, Virginia

Miami’s Comeback Win at Virginia Last Night Put the Hurricanes Into Lock Status (USA Today Images)

• Miami (19-8, 9-6 ACC, KenPom #30). Miami locked itself into the field of 68 as the ACC’s seventh team with a three-game winning streak over six days that included victories over fellow bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson, as well as a huge comeback win at Virginia on Monday night. Even more impressive is that the Hurricanes managed to save its season without the services of injured veteran point guard Ja’Quan Newton. They will now finish at worst .500 in ACC play, which along with a resume that includes two marquee wins (North Carolina and at Virginia) and no bad losses should provide plenty of justification for the committee. This week: Duke (2/25), at Virginia Tech (2/27)

BUBBLE

• Syracuse (16-12, 8-7 ACC, KenPom #48). The NCAA Tournament hopes of the Orange took a big hit this week when they traveled to Georgia Tech on Saturday and lost by six points. Now at 8-7 in conference play but with a lousy non-conference performance still weighing its resume down, Syracuse probably needs to win one of its upcoming games against Duke and Louisville, in addition to Georgia Tech plus one more in the ACC Tournament, to feel comfortable. This week: Duke (2/22), at Louisville (2/26).

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Offense ruled on Saturday with one notable exception. In the biggest game of the weekend, Virginia managed only 41 points as North Carolina dominated the Cavaliers in Chapel Hill. Earlier that day, two other games produced four of the top eight offensive performances in ACC play this season, as Duke edged Wake Forest, 99-94, and Louisville outlasted Virginia Tech, 94-90. In other weekend action, Florida State continued its road woes in falling by 14 points at Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech grabbed another big home win by holding off Syracuse. Here are the highlights of the weekend around the ACC.

Justin Jackson scored 20 points in North Carolina’s impressive win over Virginia. (Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports)

• Best Win: No one is surprised that North Carolina defeated Virginia on Saturday night — after all, the Tar Heels have yet to lose in the Smith Center this season. What was shocking, though, is how easily they dispatched a team that really never gets blown out. The 24-point loss represents the only time that Virginia has been defeated by more than 12 points in the last four years of conference play. Justin Jackson shredded the vaunted Virginia defense for 18 of his 20 points in the first half, continuing a string of amazing consistency in ACC action where he has averaged 19.6 PPG with only one outing topping 22 points. The Tar Heels won with defense and rebounding this weekend, holding the Cavaliers to just 27.8 percent shooting and finishing with a +18 edge on the boards.

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