1. Sports On Earth: College basketball stole the show this weekend. The ACC alone was home to two incredible finishes, this being the first (the second is at the bottom of the post). Duke–Syracuse lived up to all of the hype — it was a fun game to watch with both teams exerting dominance from different areas of the floor (Syracuse in the paint, Duke beyond the arc), and Tyler Thornton managing three threes in under two minutes to get Duke back in the game. It proved what we knew about Syracuse and what we thought we knew about Duke. Go ahead and circle two weeks from Saturday on your calendars because the rematch in Durham is sure to be terrific.
2. Tomahawk Nation: In much worse news, Ian Miller is hurt again for Florida State, a team that is now squarely on the wrong side of the bubble at 4-5 in ACC play (albeit against a brutal schedule). Without Miller in the lineup, the Seminoles are likely to look much more like last year’s disappointing version of the team. In addition to being a team leader, he was probably the Seminoles’ most important scoring option and there’s little to no margin for error with Florida State’s current losses. The only good news is that the team has four upcoming games against non-NCAA Tournament caliber opponents. And with games with North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Syracuse still looming, winning all four of those is the best path for Florida State to have a positive Selection Sunday experience.
3. Draft Express: Good interview with PJ Hairston about his transition from North Carolina to the NBA D-League. Thanks to online classes, Hairston is on track to get his degree next year and is still close with the guys in Chapel Hill (although he didn’t answer when he was asked if he was treated fairly by the university). Hairston cited the frequency of games as one of the biggest challenges with the transition, although his scoring numbers so far have been terrific. Another interesting nugget is his philosophy: If he’s chosen fifth in the upcoming NBA Draft, he would feel that “four people […] worked harder than” him. That fire should come in handy and explains his no-fear personality on the court.
4. Winston-Salem Journal: What was an optimistic start for Wake Forest is sliding into a concerning but well-known rut. The Demon Deacons lost at home to Georgia Tech (missing Trae Golden in addition to Robert Carter for most of the game) over the weekend. This is the same Georgia Tech that was 2-6 going into the game and yet still came out and took control of things in the second half. The bad news is that the Demon Deacons are only favored in one of their remaining nine games (according to KenPom). Suffice it to say that if they finish 5-13 in conference play, Jeff Bzdelik is probably done.
5. Washington Post: Seth Allen showed exactly what Maryland needs him to do going forward in its weekend beatdown of Virginia Tech. Before getting too excited, though, remember this was a win over Virginia Tech. Still, Allen appears to be getting healthier as conference play progresses and he’s quietly morphing into the true point guard Maryland desperately needs.

Video Extra: Malcolm Brogdon drilled this game-winning three to win at Pittsburgh, pushing Virginia to 8-1 in ACC play. Oh, and the Cavaliers will be favored in every one of its games going forward. The only two frightening games are a trip to Clemson and when Syracuse comes to Charlottesville. Beat Syracuse (or truthfully, just split those two games), and Virginia has a great shot at the ACC regular season title.

It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 29, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST). This weekend features two heavyweight matchups featuring the four teams that are clearly the class of the conference thus far.

Saturday – Duke (17-4, 6-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (20-0, 7-0 ACC) – ESPN (6:30 PM)

Record Carrier Dome Crowd Awaits Duke.
(Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

A record Carrier Dome crowd is expected for Duke’s much-anticipated first trip to Syracuse. ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be there as well, adding to the hoopla. Duke hopes it can continue to play as well as it has in the last five games. During that stretch, the Blue Devils’ much maligned defense has held opponents to an excellent 93 points per 100 possessions. Their most impressive win came Monday night on the road over Pittsburgh, whose only other conference loss came at the Carrier Dome in a close game. An unsung hero lately has been Duke’s Amile Jefferson, who is the only player in the ACC’s top three in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Syracuse just keeps rolling along, rarely blowing teams out but always executing extremely well down the stretch of games. Freshman point guard Tyler Ennis has been amazing all season, but has even been more impressive in ACC play. Despite playing so many minutes, including going the full 40 in three of the last four games, Ennis seems to be at his best in the last five minutes of games. He does whatever the Orange needs him to do, and has become a more consistent scorer with double figure points in all seven ACC games. There will be a lot of talent on the floor, particularly at the forward spot, with each team having two versatile 6’8″ frontcourt players, C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant for Syracuse and Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood for Duke. Another key could be if either team’s sharp shooter, Trevor Cooney of the Orange or Andre Dawkins for the Blue Devils, gets free and knocks down multiple threes. Naturally, whenever a team plays Syracuse we have to look at how they will try and deal with that famously active zone defense. Duke has done pretty well against other zones but nobody plays it quite like the Orange. The Blue Devils will probably try and slide their forwards in and around the lane to use their quickness, but they will have to adjust to how well Syracuse reacts to the ball. Tempo will also play a big role, with Duke wanting to force the pace defensively, hoping to wear down the Orange and make them use their weaker bench. But other teams have tried to do that and found out that Ennis is hard to speed up.

Read the rest of this entry »

Virginia’s resurgence is well-known by now, with everyone from this site to Joe Lunardi taking notice — standing firm right behind Syracuse in the ACC standings will do that. But while Virginia’s defense is still as potent as ever (only allowing opponents to shoot 38.0 percent from the field on the year), it’s the Cavaliers’ suddenly white-hot offense that has them racing off to such a commanding ACC start. It would be a challenge to find anyone who projected Virginia would be fourth in the ACC in scoring (70.5 PPG) through eight games, but there’s one obvious catalyst for Tony Bennett’s best offensive team during his tenure at Virginia: freshman point man London Perrantes.

London Perrantes has Virginia’s offense rolling and the team sitting near the top of the ACC (credit: usatodaysports)

While Tyler Ennis has garnered most of the freshman point guard accolades in the ACC this season, Perrantes can make an argument he’s just as vital to his team’s success as his Syracuse counterpart. He is averaging 4.8 assists per game in conference contests, but more impressively his assist-to-turnover ratio is an astounding 4.2 to 1. Like Ennis, Perrantes is lauded for his calm demeanor under fire and an innate ability to set and maintain his team’s preferred tempo regardless of opponent. Part of the reason the team is scoring at its current clip is because Perrantes is doing a tremendous job protecting the ball as well as knowing when to get the team out in transition (traditionally a rarity for Bennett’s squads). Virginia struggled while the young point guard was getting acclimated to the college game, but with him now firmly entrenched as the starter at the position, this team runs at a much more efficient pace.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Great profile of Anthony Gill by Whitey Reid. Gill hasn’t had the easiest journey to Charlottesville, but he’s still a good-hearted prankster ready to dupe an unknowing reporter into believing he is a magician or once had a two-headed pet cat. Gill seems like the ultimate glue guy: a solid basketball player — he’s averaging just shy of eight points in 18 minutes a game — who’s fun to be around.
2. Nike: Big uniform news, as Nike announced new “Hyper Elite” uniforms for seven programs, including Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse. Oh, and they’re throwbacks. I personally like all three (although North Carolina’s current jerseys are some of the best in the country). Take a look for yourself below.
   

   Nike’s new throwback uniforms are excellent. (photo credit: Nike)

3. Daily Orange: Another interesting part of the “2-3 Zone Series” focusing on Syracuse‘s relative lack of recent success in the NBA is that it’s hard to say how much the zone plays into the trend. It’s true the NBA doesn’t play much zone and probably isn’t looking to spend time teaching draft picks on the ins and outs of elite man-to-man defense. But Syracuse doesn’t have a problem getting players drafted. I think it also comes down to the type of players Syracuse recruits. They’re very good, but the Orange don’t draw nearly the number of McDonald’s All-Americans as the other blue-bloods. Jesse Dougherty does a good job in getting feedback from former players working professionally both here and abroad. Unrelatedly, Jim Boeheim is already falling in love with North Carolina cuisine.
4. State of the U: Informative graphic showing Miami‘s scholarships over the next four years. This year’s team doesn’t have much depth, but the Hurricanes only have three scholarships left to give over the next two years (thanks in part to being down a scholarship). And amazingly, the Hurricanes have six seniors on the roster, which means there’s a big class coming to set the tone for the next few years. We’re also going to get to see what a Jim Larranaga-constructed team looks like in Coral Gables.
5. FSU News: David Walker reflects on the paradox that is Florida State basketball. While football dwarfs basketball’s popularity in Tallahassee, the fan base has come to expect some degree of success under Leonard Hamilton. Apart from last year — when Hamilton fielded a fairly young team that didn’t quite gel — the Seminoles have been perennial postseason warriors despite institutional disadvantages when compared with some of the more basketball-focused schools in the conference.

Since December 30’s 87-52 beatdown that Virginia suffered at the hands of Tennessee in Knoxville, the Cavaliers have won seven of their last eight games. What Virginia has essentially done is establish itself as a clear member of the upper echelon of the ACC, arguably the third- or fourth-best team in the conference behind Duke and undefeated Syracuse. The Cavaliers sit comfortably at 16-5 and 7-1 in league play, their sole blemish coming in a close loss to Duke in the confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium. Virginia’s most recent victory came at the expense of a reeling Notre Dame team on Tuesday, yet another example of Virginia’s defense and style of play frustrating its conference foes thus far.

London Perrantes (left) and Joe Harris have had a lot to celebrate recently. (USA TODAY Sports)

The most impressive thing about Virginia’s play of late has been their emphatic victories, thrashing ACC teams by wide margins. They have beaten Florida State by 12 twice, North Carolina by 13, N.C. State by 31, Wake by 23, Virginia Tech by 20, and Notre Dame by 15. Virginia has effectively put the rest of the league on notice that, regardless of its non-conference performance, the Cavaliers are returning senior leaders from a highly successful unit with postseason experience. First and foremost has been the improved play of Joe Harris, which, as noted in an earlier article here on the ACC microsite, is the key to their resurgence of late.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Daily Orange: The Syracuse student newspaper is running a tremendous series on Jim Boeheim and the history of his zone. Suffice it to say that the whole series will make the ACC M5. This is the first of the bunch and covers Boeheim’s playing career and his slow adoption of the zone. It has quotes from former players and opposing coaches to go with GIF diagrams of specific plays. Great stuff.
2. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Ron Cook has what appears to be a popular opinion after Duke’s win at Pittsburgh. Lamar Patterson and the Panthers are overrated (remember, this is coming from someone who named Patterson the favorite for ACC Player of the Year and the Panthers as the top team in the league). I agree with the second part of that statement. Pittsburgh is a challenger for the regular season title, but hasn’t shown itself yet to be the best team in the league. That said, Patterson has been their best player. Duke essentially doubled him every time Pittsburgh tried to set a screen, and his teammates stepped up — for most of the game on offense — knocking down jumpers in his stead. But he’s still my conference player of the year to this point, and it’s not all that close.
3. Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State did an admirable job contesting Duke’s shots Saturday, but the Blue Devils scored 29 second chance points on 27 (!) offensive rebounds. The chink in the armor of Florida State’s historically great defenses has always been mediocre defensive rebounding. That’s often because Seminole bigs work to seal off the lane, often leaving opponents free to get better position on the glass. The question is whether the poor rebounding stems from a problem with the Seminoles’ eraser in the paint, or the wings who need to crash the boards in his place? My guess is the latter.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: Don’t look now, but if James Michael McAdoo plays like he did against Clemson, you shouldn’t write North Carolina off just yet. Who knows if the historical significance loomed over the Tigers, but regardless, McAdoo lit a fire under the Tar Heels in the blowout win on Sunday. That’s the kind of play Roy Williams desperately needs from his upperclassmen (along with lots of scoring to back up Marcus Paige).
5. John Gasaway: Tuesday Truths are back! Which means it’s the weekly time to marvel at Virginia for being the most dominant team in conference play thus far (with Duke and Syracuse close behind). Also, the gap between fourth ranked Pittsburgh and fifth ranked Florida State is 0.02 points per possession lower than the gap between Florida State and last ranked Virginia Tech. The most surprising part of the data set is that Maryland is the fastest team in the league by a comfortable margin (69.2 possessions a game, to Syracuse’s 54.2).

1. Sporting News: While it isn’t the point of this article, it’s totally ludicrous that Lamar Patterson was left off the Wooden Award watch list. He’s shooting over 55 percent on twos, 40 percent on threes, and 80% from the charity stripe. Oh yeah, he’s also Pittsburgh’s best passer and a capable rebounder. It’s a shame his snub took place right before his worst game of the season, a game in which Mike Krzyzewski set out to shut Patterson down by blitzing him on screens and draping 6’8″ Rodney Hood over him for most of the game.
2. Tallahassee Democrat: With so many teams in the ACC, unbalanced schedules abound and the rollercoaster of difficulty week-to-week is even wilder than in past years. That means that the same week Duke heads to Pittsburgh and Syracuse for road games, Florida State embarks on a three-week stretch as the probable favorites in every game. The other interesting news from Corey Clark is that Florida State is applying for a medical redshirt (for a sixth year of eligibility) for Kiel Turpin, who’s been injured all year. Even if he wins the argument for a sixth year, Turpin has an uphill battle for playing time ahead of him with Michael Ojo and Boris Bojanovsky progressing every day.
3. Gobbler Country: For Virginia Tech‘s new athletic director, “fixing the basketball problem” may actually also involve physically renovating Cassell Coliseum, a building that is now nearly 50 years old. There’s still a decade to decide on a course of action (and see how Clemson’s renovation of Littlejohn Coliseum goes), but there’s no denying that a swanky new arena can inject some excitement into an apathetic fan base. Having to bus to a nearby city would almost certainly have the opposite effect for the short-term, however.
4. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Big news out of Georgia Tech, as Robert Carter is undergoing tests to see whether he will be healthy in time to play this season. Obviously, his return would make the Yellow Jackets an entirely different team, as he was nearly averaging a double-double before hurting his knee. While Brian Gregory may not be popping up in many hot seat articles just yet, his current lack of success will heat that seat up in a hurry.
5. CBSSports: Jon Rothstein took a look at Virginia and its balanced attack. Last year Akil Mitchell and Joe Harris were two of the statistically most dominant players in the ACC, and this year, at least on the surface (per game stats), they’ve both taken steps forward. But the team is actually a lot better thanks to additional steps forward from Malcolm Brogdon and more minutes for Mike Tobey. It’s much harder to game plan around four or five legitimate options than two.

With conference play now in full force, last week was one where several teams distinguished themselves as bona fide contenders in their respective conferences. Previously #22 Creighton traveled to previously #4 Villanova last Monday and the Bluejays used an epic three-point shooting performance to throttle the Wildcats in Philadelphia, 96-68. Michigan, a team that had quietly been making a move in the RTC25, had a very impressive week as well. The previously #15 Wolverines took care of business at home on Wednesday by defeating previously #7 Iowa, 75-67. John Beilein’s squad was not done there, though, as it traveled to East Lansing on Saturday and bested a previously #3 Michigan State squad (without two starters, of course). After its high quality week, Michigan is now all alone in first place in the Big Ten standings with a sterling 7-0 record. #17 Cincinnati also continued to look like a real contender in the AAC, as it remained undefeated in league play with victories over UCF and Temple. With the month of February set to begin next weekend, more teams will begin to distinguish themselves as contenders or pretenders. The quick n’ dirty analysis of this week’s poll is after the jump.

  Read the rest of this entry »

It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 22, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings.

Saturday: Florida State (13-5, 4-2 ACC) @ Duke (15-4, 4-2 ACC) – ESPN (12:00 PM)

Pomeroy Prediction: (#11) Duke 78-72 (#21) Florida State 

Jabari Parker Has Been More Aggressive Lately For Duke.
(Photo: Ethan Hyman)

This weekend’s kick-off game should be a great match-up between surging Duke and a Florida State team that has beaten every ACC team it has played not named Virginia. And don’t discount the Seminoles’ chances just because this game is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Florida State already has two impressive road conference wins over Clemson and Miami, each by double figures. In a bit of a surprise, the Seminoles lead the ACC in three-point shooting (43.8%), with sophomore Devon Bookert leading the way with a league-leading 12-for-19 (63.2%). The Florida State defense is tough on opposing shooters and ranks #16 nationally in adjusted efficiency, but it has not been quite as stingy in league play. They will be facing a hot Duke team that remade its lineup, is using its bench more, and has had success with it — winning three straight. The Blue Devils got their first road win of the season on Wednesday over Miami and have averaged an outstanding 121.7 points per 100 possessions over the last three outings. Jabari Parker appears to be bouncing back from his mini-slump, averaging 20 points per game in the last two outings. As an indication of Parker’s aggressiveness lately, he shot 18 free throws in those two games after only attempting a total of 12 in his first four ACC games.

Stat Watch. Florida State has two glaring weaknesses: defensive rebounding and ball-handling. Even though Duke has been weak on the offensive boards for most of the year, they grabbed 15 of them against Miami. And in their last home game, the Devils forced N.C. State into 15 first half turnovers, so the key to the game will probably be how well Florida State takes care of the ball. If they can make the game depend on who shoots better, Florida State has the edge, with their defensive field goal shooting (38.3%) much stronger than Duke’s defense (45.3%).

Saturday – Pittsburgh (17-2, 5-1 ACC) @ Maryland (11-8, 3-3 ACC) – ESPN2 (6:00 PM)

Pomeroy Prediction: (#2) Pittsburgh 73-65 (#66) Maryland

Read the rest of this entry »

1. John Gasaway: Tuesday Truths are back! And with them, some interesting tidbits. Unfortunately, schedules are far from equal this season, but it appears there’s a top tier now separating itself from the pack. That group is Virginia, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Duke. After Duke’s takedown of Miami in Coral Gables last night, I’d expect that foursome to further distinguish itself. As far as future head-to-head match-ups go, Virginia gets Syracuse at home and Pittsburgh away; Syracuse gets Virginia on the road, Duke at home and away, and Pittsburgh away; Pittsburgh gets Virginia at home, Duke at home and Syracuse at home; and Duke gets Syracuse at home and away and Pittsburgh away. Catch all that? On the surface, this schedule favors the Cavaliers and Panthers in the quest for the ACC’s top seed in Greensboro.
2. Winston-Salem Journal: Don’t look now, but Wake Forest won a conference road game! Sure, it was against a beaten-up Virginia Tech team, but now isn’t the time for qualifiers. It’s a time for celebration. Even better news for the Demon Deacons is that Travis McKie found his shot (he went 5-of-6 from beyond the arc en route to scoring 24 points). The highlight of Dan Collins’ article is the interaction with Jeff Bzdelik, though.
3. WRAL: ACC media legend Caulton Tudor pulled no punches in his preview of North Carolina and Clemson. Weirdly, he also hit Virginia with an undeserved drive-by insult (as mentioned above). But the goods are his discussion of the three shoulda-coulda-woulda games for the Tigers. The first came in 1982 (yep, the national title team with Michael Jordan, Sam Perkins and James Worthy) when Matt Doherty and Jimmy Black dragged the Tar Heels from a 10-point second half deficit to win by five. Both teams should be hungry on Sunday, coming off of bad losses.
4. Testudo Times: Jake Layman is in a slump and has been for the last five games. And his slump is likely symptomatic of and a reason for Maryland’s ACC skid. This team needs his outside shooting to spread the floor for its penetrators and bigs to work. It’s no coincidence that Maryland’s three least efficient offensive outings this season came during that stretch, although the only head-scratcher was this week’s loss at NC State. The Wolfpack are not a great defensive team, but Maryland looked lost for the entire second half.
5. Daily Tar Heel: Here’s an editorial calling for North Carolina to relax its rules on the size of the signs students can bring to the Dean Dome. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m all for letting students bring signs of any size and most any content. But signs won’t erase the “wine and cheese” stereotypes about North Carolina (though the rule certainly enforces them). Letting students vote on ideas to get approved by the athletic department might look like an even more controlled “cheer sheet” that draws so much ire down the road.