Bennet Hayes is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @HoopsTraveler on Twitter. Night Line runs on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s games.

On a Wednesday night chock-full of college basketball action, nobody could have expected the story of the night to come from Fort Worth, Texas. Pairing a TCU team seeking its first Big 12 win with a Kansas squad fresh off a home loss to Oklahoma State would seem to rank pretty high on the combustibility scale, but enter a twist: It was Kansas who went up in flames tonight. The Horned Frogs snatched a win to remember in the midst of an otherwise forgettable season, and college basketball fans bore witness to one of the biggest upsets of the last decade. Jerry Palm went so far as to mention that this was the biggest upset — in terms of RPI difference — in his 20 years of tracking numbers. The 62-55 win was as ugly as it was unexpected, but if you love a good upset (and what college basketball fan doesn’t love that), this was as beautiful as it gets.

There Was Much To Celebrate For TCU On Wednesday Night

Explaining the inexplicable is not a favorite pastime of mine, but I’ll take a shot here. As bad as TCU is, the bulk of their issues have come on one side of the ball. Trent Johnson’s offense, valued at #330 nationally in efficiency, has been a nightmare. The defensive effort has been slightly better, although the national ranking of #137 in defensive efficiency still couldn’t have worried Bill Self too much before tip-off. Afterward he was too consumed with his own team’s failings to marvel at the Horned Frog D, but the point is that this was the kind of game TCU had to create to have a shot to win. They weren’t going to beat Kansas playing deep into the 60s, let alone the 90s, and it took a truly anemic KU offensive effort to allow TCU this win.

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Right when we thought a team might overtake Kansas in the Big 12 standings (or our power rankings, at least), Kansas State went out and lost two in a row last week, first to Kansas at home and then at Iowa State on Saturday. Both were close games with the Wildcats losing by a combined 10 points, but they lost two games on the Jayhawks in the Big 12 race and fell into a third place tie with Iowa State and Oklahoma. Baylor has quietly started 5-1 in conference play, but the easier part of their schedule is now behind them. The Bears have already swept TCU and have another win over Texas Tech in Lubbock (but hey, that’s more than Iowa State can say). And about those Jayhawks — they are due for a loss, aren’t they? They have been winning close games for the last month it seems. We’ve spiced up the rankings this week with a team’s projected NCAA Tournament seed from Bracket Matrix. Instead of picking a random bracketologist’s numbers, how about averaging out a bunch of mock brackets? The guys at Bracket Matrix do that so we don’t have to, and as many people have been saying lately, there looks to be six NCAA Tournament teams from the Big 12 this year.

The Kansas Offense Hasn’t Been Pretty In January, But The Defense Has Helped Keep Its Winning Streak Alive.

1) Kansas (18-1, 6-0 Big 12)
Previous Ranking: 1
Projected NCAA Seed: #1

Last Week: W 59-55 at Kansas State, W 67-54 vs Oklahoma

This Week: Tonight at West Virginia, 8:00 PM CST, Saturday vs Oklahoma State, 3:00 PM

• Rundown: The Jayhawks have won 17 straight since losing to Michigan State in November but the offense has disappeared in January. They are averaging 62.2 PPG in their last five games, leading to a KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of #18. And as we pointed out here, teams that finish outside the top #25 in that category rarely make the Final Four.
• Cause For Concern: The offense, of course. Last season, point guard Tyshawn Taylor was always there to clean up an ugly offensive possession with a drive to the basket. This team has had point guard issues most of the year. Starter Elijah Johnson has been more of an off-guard during his career and backup Naadir Tharpe is trigger-happy. Freshman Ben McLemore averages 16.2 PPG, but with a shooting percentage of 51%, he needs to take over more games than he does. He’s the best player on the team and one of the five best in the country, so an average of 10 shots a game isn’t enough.

2) Baylor (14-5, 5-1)
Previous Ranking: 3
Projected NCAA Seed: #9

Last Week: W 64-54 vs Oklahoma State, W 82-56 at TCU

This Week: Wednesday vs Oklahoma, 6:00 PM, Saturday at Iowa State 7:00 PM

• Rundown: The days of losing to teams like Charleston and Northwestern look to be behind them, but the schedule certainly picks up the rest of the way. Eight of their last 12 games are against teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament. The emergence of freshman center Isaiah Austin will help, though. Austin has scored double figures in each of his last 10 games going back to December 12.
• Cause For Concern: We all know what the Bears are by now, a talented, underachieving squad that could fall on its face in the first round of the Tournament or make the Elite Eight. From where they stand now, the worst thing that could happen to Baylor — or any team for that matter — is to land in the #8/#9 game and play a #1 seed in the second round.

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1. Six teams ranked in the AP Top 10 lost last week, including the nation’s soon-to-be former number one team, Duke. This begs the question: who deserves to become the new America’s Most Wanted? Jeff Eisenberg makes the case for three candidates: Michigan, Florida and Kansas. Based from sheer proximity to the top spot, Michigan appears to be the likeliest suitor. The Wolverines are a very talented team for sure and only have one loss (to Ohio State) on the season. Florida had two losses in a span of seven days in mid-December but it seems like long ago because the Gators have soundly beaten everyone on their schedule since. The Jayhawks are a unique squad. They have had close calls versus Temple and Texas but if there’s something they have on Michigan and Florida it’s that they technically don’t have a loss on the road or at home. It’ll be interesting to see how the writers and coaches vote in their respective polls due out later today.
2. When I started writing about Kansas pushing aside Oklahoma over the weekend, Pandora coincidentally played for me “It’s the Same Old Song” by The Four Tops. In many ways, it was a lot of that at Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday afternoon. The 67-54 victory marked KU’s 10th straight win over the Sooners overall, including the 12th straight at Phog Allen dating back nearly 20 years. OU had its chances to take control of the game; the Sooners were only down eight at the break and won the turnover battle, but the problem was that they only made 35% of their shots and no matter where you’re playing, you won’t win a lot of games shooting like that. We still don’t know much about how good a team Oklahoma is this season. There hasn’t been a game where you could point and say, “This was Oklahoma at its best against a team better than they are.” Good thing we’re still in January. 
   
3. I am about to attempt something unknown to mankind: Describing an important home win for Iowa State without saying a certain phrase. You know what these two words are — they rhyme with “Kilton Sagic”. The Cyclones rebounded in the best way possible from their defeat to Texas Tech, knocking off a reeling Kansas State team in Ames over the weekend. The game was won on the perimeter as ISU connected on 11-of-22 from outside while K-State managed to hit 7-of-19. While Fred Hoiberg has built his alma mater into a conference contender and hopefully NCAA Tournament regulars, I believe wins like the one against the Wildcats won’t have anything to do with the arena; the only “Magic” will be from the Cyclone players on the floor.
4. TCU’s the worst team in the Big 12 and they played a pretty talented one in Baylor on Saturday. According to head coach Trent Johnson, the Bears left quite an impression on his team. At the postgame presser, Johnson said, “This [Baylor] is the most talented team in the country. They’ve got length, they’ve got size, they’ve got quickness to the ball.” I understand that his team was just manhandled by the Bears, but Baylor’s not even the most talented team in the conference much less the country. At their best they’re probably a fringe Top 25 team but nothing better than that. Think about how bad it’ll be when TCU plays at Kansas this season. Wonder what Johnson will have to say then?
5. It’s time for our semi-weekly check-in on the thoughts of West Virginia head coach Bob Huggins. Early in Saturday’s game, the Mountaineers led Oklahoma State by 13 on the road, only to lose by 14. So after another disappointing loss, what could Huggins then say that hadn’t already been said? This will just about do it. “I’ve never had teams that after a timeout come out and don’t know what they’re doing, right after you showed them. It is guys who have played 19 games now this year, 30-some games last year. They’ve played 50 games.” When he’s talking about never having a team like this one in the decades he’s roamed the sidelines, it’s pretty serious. Upperclassmen whose production has declined from last year to this? Hard to picture it for a Huggins-coached team.

Thanks to the double dip of games on Big Monday and the Sunflower Showdown the following evening, Wednesday was rather light on the conference schedule. Like, the weight-of-a-leaf light. TCU-West Virginia and Iowa State-Texas Tech were match-ups that sounded like they were made for ESPN3,  yet there they were, soaking up precious air time on ESPN2 and ESPNU last evening. For fans of Big 12 basketball, it wasn’t a good night.

Iowa State played Tech’s game all night. (Stephen Spillman/The Avalanche-Journal)

West Virginia 71, Texas Christian 50: Everybody knew that the game of the night was down in Coral Gables. What I was hoping for was a close game between Duke and Miami so that the drama of that game would limit the opportunity to check up on that eyesore in Morgantown. As luck would have it, the game I wanted to watch didn’t go as planned but the one that I didn’t want to watch did. Oh, the horror.

Both teams lacked basic fundamentals. Ball-handling was spectacularly bad, fast breaks were poorly executed, and passing was hilarious in the saddest of ways. And I’m talking about TCU and West Virginia. If these schools just stayed where they were, this game would have been the Big East’s problem. TCU plays like they don’t deserve to be in a major conference. I’ll admit it: The Big 12 is having a bit of a down year but will the Horned Frogs win even one conference game this season? I don’t think so. What if they were still in the Mountain West, a conference that’s looking a lot better than several power conferences? I think, no I know, that they’d go oh-fer for sure. I hope Trent Johnson can turn things around and soon because no one deserves to root for a team that’s currently 344th out of almost 350 Division I schools in team scoring. West Virginia on the other hand has been playing better basketball as of late. They came into last weekend having lost three of four to start conference play but could have easily been 3-1 instead. They stunk it up against Purdue on Saturday so with TCU next up on the docket, it was a shoe-in for Bob Huggins’ team to get a W in the left hand column. Deniz Kilicli had his best game of the calendar year and a young guard to keep an eye on is Eron Harris. Huggins has rewarded the freshman with more minutes, and as a result, he’s averaging 15.3 points per game in his last three outings.

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It seems almost unfair to rag on Texas Tech and TCU. The Red Raiders had to boot Billy Gillispie out of Lubbock this fall and didn’t have time to find a permanent coach, so they’re playing the entire season under interim coach Chris Walker. The record will show that Gillispie “resigned,” but there was nothing peaceful about his exit. It was a disaster, and it’s no wonder a young team with a boatload of newcomers has already lost to McNeese State at home, not to mention conference foe Baylor by 34 points. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have a more stable first-year coach in Trent Johnson, but even he knew his program’s transition to the Big 12 would take a significant amount of time and energy. In Year One of his rebuilding project, he’s dealt with a number of injuries, and his team is now 0-3 in the league. The worst part? TCU managed to lose to Texas Tech in the Big 12’s version of the Toilet Bowl.

Texas Tech and TCU Battled Over the Weekend in Big 12 Action

So we’ve buttered you up by giving Texas Tech and TCU excuses for losing, and they’re certainly valid. Now, though, it’s time to take a look at just how bad the two programs are historically in terms of the RPI. The RPI figures are hardly scientific. The flaws are well-known, actually. But to repeat the rhetoric of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, the RPI is a decent way to categorize teams. Using RealTimeRPI, which provides RPI data dating back to 2003-04, the numbers shows that Texas Tech and TCU form the worst Big 12 tandem in close to a decade. Texas Tech’s RPI sits at a robust #246 right now, whereas TCU sits at #222. Here are all of the sub-200 RPI teams since 2003-04 in the Big 12.

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The NCAA released its RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) on Tuesday. The RPI isn’t the only factor used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, and it certainly isn’t the best metric, but it is a consideration nonetheless. Simply put, the RPI is derived from three things: a team’s winning percentage, its opponents’ winning percentage, and its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. They also began factoring in home, away, and neutral site games in 2004, so road wins are better than home wins and home losses are worse than road losses. It has its limitations — if it determined a national champion like in college football, we would all be in trouble. But it’s not a terrible way to assist in determining the NCAA Tournament field and where teams should be seeded. Like any numbers-based ranking system, it doesn’t always jive with a human poll, and that’s OK. There should always be a human element with a mixture of strictly numbers, as both sides can veer too far in one direction at times. (Example: The RPI has Colorado ranked sixth, too high, and San Diego State 40th, too low).

The Good

• Kansas is #2 after surviving a (much needed) close game against Temple at home on Saturday. The Jayhawks have solid wins against teams like Colorado (#6), Belmont (#21), and the aforementioned Temple (#28). Last month’s road win against Ohio State (#41) made it four wins against top 50 teams in the non-conference season. Bill Self has mastered the art of scheduling non-conference games at KU. You don’t think he knows winnable home games against teams like Belmont and Temple will help his RPI come Selection Sunday? The good coaches know which teams to schedule and where to schedule them, and Bill Self is no different in that regard.
• Oklahoma at #19 surprised me as well. The Sooners have wins over Texas A&M (#65), UTEP (#85), two wins over West Virginia (#105), and Oral Roberts (#115). On paper, their loss to Stephen F. Austin looks bad, but the Lumberjacks are #53 in RPI. Their other two losses came to top 100 teams as well, at Arkansas (#94) and Gonzaga (#5) on a neutral floor. With Oklahoma already so high, it bodes well for the Big 12 getting five teams into the NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma at #19? Just One Of The Eccentricities Of The RPI

The Bad

• Baylor‘s two-point loss to Colorado on Nov. 16 doesn’t look so bad now that the Buffaloes are #6th, and a win in Rupp Arena over Kentucky is never a bad thing. But the Bears are #35 in RPI right now. That’s what losses to Charleston and Northwestern will do to your resume. I almost put this in the “Good” category because head coach Scott Drew has done a masterful job of sinking his team’s expectations once again this season. But with one of the best point guards in the nation in Pierre Jackson and plenty of talent elsewhere, there is no reason the Bears should be as low as #35 right now. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Rick Barnes will just need to stay patient with Myck Kabongo, it appears. The star point guard has traveled with the team to Hawaii for this week’s Maui Invitational, but the NCAA has not yet deemed him eligible to play. The Longhorns have looked lost offensively without Kabongo, and they can’t afford for him to stay on the bench much longer. They should be able to dispatch of Chaminade and, truthfully, either Illinois or USC in the semifinals, but this team can’t get off the island with a championship if Kabongo’s not playing. Here’s the funny thing about all of this — technically, according to that article linked above, there’s nothing necessarily preventing Kabongo from playing right now. It’s just that if he plays and the NCAA eventually finds him ineligible due to his relationship with an agent, Texas would have to forfeit every game he appeared in. As if there’s a chance in the world Barnes would risk that.
2. Even before Oklahoma State’s thrashing of North Carolina State in the finals of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, The Oklahoman published this piece about Le’Bryan Nash‘s maturity and improved play so far this season. Then he lit up the Wolfpack for 23 points, and his team looked immortal during the final two days of this three-day tournament. It’s obvious that some of us — like myself, who said in a preseason podcast I had serious doubts about Oklahoma State’s potential — might have been, um, dead wrong about Nash and the Cowboys. It’s early, sure, but everything’s coming together perfectly for Travis Ford. Nash looks like he gets it. Marcus Smart can play the point. His high school buddy Phil Forte really is one of the top shooters in his freshman class. There’s no telling how long the Cowboys may ride this wave of momentum from Puerto Rico.
3. It’s hard to be TCU. New league, new opponents, new era, and on top of that, Trent Johnson is really in rebuilding mode with this program right now. That’s why losing Amric Fields, the Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year last season, hurts so much. The Star-Telegram claims Fields is probably out for the season, which means he’ll join freshman center Aaron Durley on the walking wounded list (Durley’s also out for the year). Luckily, the Horned Frogs do have a lot of bodies up front still, even if they’re largely unproven. Nobody said Trent Johnson’s new job was going to be very easy.
4. TCU lost Fields in the midst of a loss to in-state rival SMU. That’s Larry Brown’s new team, of course, and here’s an interesting analysis as to how TCU and SMU differ in their approaches to rebuilding. It’s not as though Trent Johnson is some sort of up-and-comer as a coach. He’s taken three separate programs to the NCAA Tournament and established himself as one of the game’s better coaches during his tenures at Nevada and Stanford. He’s no Larry Brown, however. Nobody is. And that’s why this article is a good read, no matter if you live in TCU/SMU territory in Texas or 1,000 miles away in another part of the country. These two programs both needed a bold move, and they took different paths to achieve it.
5. Bruce Weber may not have the same sort of talent that Bill Snyder has on his football team, but he says he loves his depth so far. He has a point. Outside of Rodney McGruder and perhaps Jordan Henriquez, the rest of the rotation is mostly interchangeable. There are just solid players up and down the roster at every position. Right now, the Wildcats have 11 players averaging between 16-24 minutes per game. That will obviously change as the season progresses, but even against early cupcakes, that’s quite staggering.

Each day for the next two weeks, we’ll bring you the obligatory team preview here at the Big 12 microsite. First up, Danny Spewak (@dspewak) breaks down the league’s newbie: TCU. The Horned Frogs were not a unanimous choice among the Big 12 microsite writers to finish last in the conference, but we’re guessing we still won’t find much argument with this selection.

The Skinny

• 2011-12 record: 18-15 overall, 7-7 Mountain West
• Key Contributors Lost: G Hank Thorns, G J.R. Cadot, F Craig Williams
• Head Coach: Trent Johnson, 1st season
• Projected Finish: 10th

Trent Johnson Takes on the Biggest Reclamation Project of His Career

Trent Johnson has problems. The team he inherits in Fort Worth finished in the lower third of Division I basketball in almost every defensive statistical category in 2011-12. He has no proven scorers, no proven shooters and only a handful of experienced upperclassmen. It will not be an easy season for the TCU Horned Frogs, but that has nothing to do with the change in conference affiliation or the mystical power of the Big 12. This squad played in a league with four NCAA Tournament teams a year ago, and it knocked off three of those teams — Colorado State, New Mexico and UNLV — on its home floor. The Horned Frogs won on a neutral floor against Virginia in November, defeated Texas Tech at home (hey, it’s a Big 12 school at least), and played a total of five power conference teams before entering Mountain West play. And remember, that league actually finished above the ACC in conference RPI rankings and sat just two slots below the Big 12. The sudden move to the Big 12 will not cause a mass panic among TCU’s players. They’ve seen good players and good teams before. They’ve played at The Pit and in front of hostile crowds. The problem is not the Big 12 — the problem is simply Trent Johnson’s lack of overall play-makers and proven leaders. He made a splash earlier this month by outbidding Bill Self, Scott Drew and Rick Barnes for Class of 2013 prep center Karviar Shepherd, but that’s the future. Before Johnson can channel the success he enjoyed at Nevada, Stanford and during the early part of his tenure at LSU, he’ll need to build this program very slowly.

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With the lull between Midnight Madness and the start of the season, there’s not a whole of compelling topics that need covering. So it only makes sense to rank how each Big 12 team is faring out on the recruiting trail. While getting some help from Verbalcommits.com, here’s how my league teams shake out among players in the class of 2013 as of right now.

As of Now, Wayne Selden is the Top Prospect Entering the Big 12 Next Year

10. Texas Tech

Commitments: None

Analysis: This was an easy one. Texas Tech isn’t exactly the hottest thing going right now. Forget top-flight recruits, but how are mid-level prospects going to want to go to Lubbock when they just fired the head coach after one season and currently have an interim who may also be gone after this year? If they’re going to get anyone, they’ll probably be players who committed and de-committed to a bunch of schools or players who’ll take a Red Raider scholarship because it sounds better than say, a Florida Gulf Coast scholarship.

9. Texas

Commitments: None

Analysis: Surprised? The reason I put the Horns here is because they don’t have any verbal commitments at the moment but when all is said and done, Texas will surely rack in some recruits of notoriety. Currently, they have two scholarships available for prospects including the top power forward in the class, Julius Randle, and a trio of four-star talents: Keith Frazier, BeeJay Anya and Brandon Austin. Methinks the Longhorns will be just fine.

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Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Chad Lykins, the RTC recruiting guru. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. We also encourage you to check out his contributions dedicated solely to Duke Basketball at Duke Hoop Blog. You can also follow Chad at his Twitter account @CLykinsBlog for up-to-date breaking news from the high school and college hoops scene. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Double Dip for Coach Cal

In what is being referred to as the best package deal in high school recruiting by a number of national recruiting analysts, twin brothers Andrew and Aaron Harrison of Fort Bend Travis High School (Texas) verbally committed to the defending national champion Kentucky Wildcats on Thursday, October 4. Andrew, the top rated point guard and No. 2 overall prospect in the ESPN 100 and Aaron, the top rated shooting guard and No. 4 overall prospect, chose the Wildcats over the Maryland Terrapins and SMU Mustangs. The addition of the Harrisons will automatically vault the Wildcats as the No. 1 overall class in 2013 over SEC rival Florida.

The Harrison Twins are the latest dynamic duo to commit to Kentucky (maxpreps)

“Coach Calipari presented a challenge for us. He would push us every day,” Andrew said. “We just want to be better players.” Aaron added: “Also, coach Calipari did not guarantee anything and we liked that.” The announcement comes after an intense summer of recruiting for the twin brothers. Throughout the AAU evaluation period, coaching staffs from the final three schools were spotted at almost every event that the Harrisons participated in with their AAU club, Houston Defenders.

In the end, it was a neck-and-neck race between Kentucky and Maryland with SMU a distant third in the running. Kentucky head coach John Calipari and Maryland head coach Mark Turgeon battled for the services for the Harrisons up until the very last minute. Turgeon even made a visit on Wednesday in an attempt to make one final impression on the Harrison family. A Maryland commitment would have clearly brought the Terrapins back to national relevance.

Speculation ran rampant throughout the week leading up to the announcement that the decision may have been swinging in Maryland’s favor, mainly because the mainstream gear brand Under Armour was playing a huge role in the recruitment. Under Armour outfits both the Terrapins and the Harrison’s AAU club coached by their father, Aaron Harrison Sr.

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