On the eve of North Carolina‘s ESPN GameDay match-up in Tallahassee against one of the most stubborn defensive teams in the country, Roy Williams delivered some long expected news. Leslie McDonald, despite a relatively rapid recovery, would be redshirting, saving his eligibility for a full season. While McDonald’s injury during a summer game was considered a serious blow to UNC’s perimeter attack, the emergence of Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hairston, as well as Harrison Barnes‘ deadly three-point accuracy so far this season, have largely mitigated that concern.

Williams Has A Deep Bench That He Can Turn To

Despite being the team’s designated three-point sniper last season, it’s entirely possible that McDonald would have struggled for consistent minutes this year. Since Bullock and Hairston have emerged as premier offensive weapons off the bench for Tar Heels and Kendall Marshall and Dexter Strickland have waged strong campaigns for their indispensability, there simply aren’t many available minutes for another non-ball-handler in the backcourt. Indeed, their is already a bit of a logjam in the rotation, with some fans clamoring for a starting spot or at least more time for the skilled-at-both-ends Bullock.  But where do the minutes come from? Strickland and Barnes both play less than 26 MPG as it is, and honestly, it’s hard to justify taking minutes away from either. But what about minutes from Marshall?

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Some semblance of order prevailed Tuesday night as Florida State managed a close win against Virginia Tech and North Carolina lodged a quietly scary win against Miami. Bernard James, the old man of the ACC, posted an 18-point, 15-rebound game (nine offensive rebounds) and Ian Miller offered the sufficient guard scoring (15 points) that the Seminoles had lacked in the early going. Virginia Tech simply couldn’t score at a strong enough clip against the defensive-minded Seminoles, managing a field goal percentage of only 30.5%. This is how we expected Florida State would win games, and it’s fun to see a team pull off a victory like this while still turning the ball over 19 times in a relatively slow-paced game. Did I say fun? I meant weird, but oddly gratifying.

Old Man Bernard James Had A Monster Game In The Victory Over Virginia Tech

Meanwhile, North Carolina’s convincing victory against Miami was scarier than you might expect. The Tar Heels draw a lot of offensive firepower from their triumvirate of big, athletic, sharp-shooting wings. Last night, Harrison Barnes went 2-of-12, Reggie Bullock went 2-of-6, and P.J. Hairston went 1-of-6. It was a 17-point win for UNC and the Hurricanes shot 41.8%. The ability to accomplish a high margin win without shut-down defense, hot shooting, or scoring from three of your best offensive players is what makes North Carolina such a dangerous team. Totally crushing an opponent in every facet of the game will always be impressive, but soundly beating a team despite lots of things going wrong? Just as remarkable.

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1. Sports Illustrated: Bubble Watch is back! The bad news is that the ACC only has three teams that are locks or should be in. The good news is there are five more still in the mix (aka teams that have an RPI under 100). The worse news is that Miami and Virginia Tech are now 0-2 to start conference play, leaving NC State, Florida State and Wake Forest to pick up the slack. In a year of middling power conferences the ACC should get four teams invited.
2. Tomahawk Nation: Speaking of the Seminoles, Leonard Hamilton’s team had a good old-fashioned block party against Virginia Tech last night. They blocked 25.4% of the Hokies’ shots (15-of-59 field goal attempts were blocked). Luckily, Michael Rogner pointed this out twice on Twitter because I totally glossed over it the first time. That’s an outrageous number. Oh, and Bernard James was a beast, going for 18 points and 15 rebounds (of which nine were offensive). The performance earned the Seminoles a road win for their efforts.
3. Washington Times: Maryland is much better with Alex Len in the lineup, but Mark Turgeon’s squad still has a long way to go. Specifically, the team’s transition defense was horrendous at the RBC Center on Sunday, but NC State’s athletic frontcourt exacerbated the problem, as Mark Gottfried rotated DeShawn Painter and Richard Howell to go against a gassed Len.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of NC State, the Wolfpack are the only ACC team with five players averaging double figures for the season. This balance means there are several players who can step up on any given night. The problem is the team’s talent drops off fairly quickly after the top six.
5. Durham Herald Sun: Dexter Strickland is the newest Tar Heel to have to deal with fans calling for other players to start ahead of him. Last year it was Larry Drew II, as fans and the media called for Roy Williams to start Kendall Marshall instead. I was one of them. This year, I’ll stick with the coach. It’s true that Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston have been terrific and add an invaluable long-range threat to the offense. But I think Strickland helps the team chemistry where Drew clearly hurt it last season. The good news for Tar Heel fans is I expect Strickland to keep helping team chemistry regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench.

Here are three thoughts about each team I garnered from Wednesday’s game in Chapel Hill. The observations on North Carolina probably hold a little more water, as the team is much more experienced. On the other hand, Texas will probably improve significantly between now and the end of the season.

• Reggie Bullock isn’t just getting love from bloggers for his defense; Roy Williams put the sophomore on Texas’ explosive J’Covan Brown whenever Bullock was in the game. Bullock’s length (he’s 6’7″) was definitely a factor, but he also did a very good job staying in front of Brown on most plays. After the game Williams’ one criticism was that Bullock didn’t box out well. But Bullock has earned the spot as the first substitute to enter the game (for Dexter Strickland), and his offensive skills make North Carolina a much more dangerous team when he’s in the game.

• Texas needs Myck Kabongo and Rick Barnes on the same page. Last night Barnes benched his star point guard for a lack of “discipline” and “purpose” on offense. Without Kabongo, Texas isn’t nearly as dangerous. The forwards in particular really need a facilitator to create play-making opportunities. Kabongo is also lethal in transition. The bottom line is your second-best player can’t be riding the pine in big games.

Reggie Bullock has Earned a Spot in North Carolina's Main Rotation.

• Harrison Barnes played his best game of the year offensively. Frankly, it’s not even close. Barnes scored in nearly every way possible. He scored in catch-and-shoot situations, isolation sets and on put-backs. He only had four offensive rebounds, but watching the game it felt like at least six or eight of his points came off those rebounds. This is the Harrison Barnes people were expecting when they picked him as a NPOY frontrunner.

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Evan Jacoby is an RTC columnist and contributor. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

After several consecutive slow weeknights, Wednesday night offers some very good games. All eyes should be tuned in, especially, to the ESPN2 early game.

Texas at #4 North Carolina – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN2 (****)

UNC Will Attack Texas With Their Forwards, Tonite on ESPN2 (Getty Images/P. Williams)

• Since their collapse against NC State on November 21, Texas has won seven straight games by double digits, including some nice wins over Temple and at UCLA. Their talented guard combo of J’Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo is starting to click, with Brown’s numbers up to 19.3 points and 4.3 assists per game and Kabongo at 10.8 points and 6.0 assists per contest. Four of the Longhorns’ five leading scorers are freshmen, including Kabongo and exciting reserve guard Sheldon McClennan. The Longhorns are ranked seventh nationally with 1.18 points per possession and eighth in overall offensive efficiency (117.5). For Texas to hang in this game, they’ll need their young guards to keep scoring at a high rate, and hope to contain UNC’s massive frontcourt from dominating the offensive boards.
• North Carolina has a massive size, experience, home court, and overall talent advantage in this game, which is why they’re 10-point favorites. Look for the Tar Heels to feature Tyler Zeller and John Henson inside to feast on Texas’s smaller front line. The bigs should be able to control this game on the boards, where UNC ranks 16^th nationally in offensive rebounds per game, and number one overall on the defensive glass. Even if Texas’s guards can score effectively, Carolina can counter with its wing scorers of Harrison Barnes, Dexter Strickland, and Reggie Bullock, lead by the nation’s top assist man in Kendall Marshall (10.2 APG).
• Texas has won four straight games against Carolina since 1995. The Longhorns are playing well and will certainly be ready for this game. But it’s hard to envision UNC losing this one at home given their huge advantage in the paint and with just as many talented guards. Expect a super exciting, high scoring affair between two of the top programs in the country, with Roy Williams’ team coming out on top.

Seton Hall at Dayton – 7:00 PM EST, no TV (***)

• This is a huge road test for 9-1 Seton Hall, whose only loss came in the finals of the Charleston Classic against Northwestern. Senior Herb Pope has been an absolute stud all year and he leads the Big East in scoring (22.1 PPG) AND rebounding (11.9 RPG). His fellow senior leader, point guard Jordan Theodore, leads the conference in assists with 7.1 per game. Sophomore guard Fuquan Edwin leads the Big East in steals per game with 3.4 per contest. He and Theodore each average about 14 points per game, as well. This dangerous trio will look to lead coach Kevin Willard’s team to a big road win and legitimize their strong start to the season.
• Dayton is a talented but very inconsistent team. They have strong wins over Alabama, Wake Forest, and Minnesota on their resume, but they also have a shocking home loss to Buffalo by 29 (!) points. They lost road games to Miami (Ohio) and Murray State, as well. First year coach Archie Miller’s team has five players that average nine or more points per game, lead by junior lead guard Kevin Dillard. A transfer from Southern Illinois, Dillard leads the team in scoring (11.9 PPG), assists (5.1 APG), and steals (2.3 SPG).
• This game is not televised nationally or on ESPN3.com, but be sure to follow along, or even watch if it’s being shown locally. Dayton is a four-point home favorite in this one, but this is anyone’s game. The Flyers have several big home wins and another awful home loss. Seton Hall will look to control the game with the dominant Pope inside, who will be a load to handle for Dayton’s short interior players. I’d take Seton Hall and their experienced leaders to come out with the road win, but this one could go either way.

Middle Tennessee State at Mississippi – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN3.com (***)

• Middle Tennessee is coming off a big home win over Belmont to push its record to 10-2. They are the class of the Sun Belt Conference, and are only two-point underdogs in this game. When you factor in the three-point cushion given to home teams in Vegas lines, that means MTSU is considered the slightly better team. This is a fair assessment, as the Raiders have an impressive trio of upperclassmen in guard Marcos Knight and forwards LaRon Dendy and J.T. Sulton who all average at least 12 points and 6 rebounds per game. These three all shoot at least 53.6% from the field, as well, which powers the nation’s best field goal shooting team (53.2% as a team for the year).
• Ole Miss also comes into this game with just two losses, the most recent of which came on Saturday at a pretty good Southern Miss team. Ole Miss features five players that average nine points or more, lead by junior Murphy Holloway’s 10.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Not included in their five leading scorers is new addition Jelan Kendrick, who is now eligible for Mississippi after transferring from Memphis when he was kicked off the team at the beginning of this year. Kendrick is a very talented freshman who could start to make his mark tonight. Andy Kennedy’s team will have the athleticism advantage in this game, such as their 6.2 blocks per game which ranks 13^th in the country.
• This game might be the best of the 9:00PM EST slate, so be sure to have ESPN3 ready on your computer even if you’re tuned in to the television for another game. We expect Ole Miss to take care of business at home, but MTSU will offer a great challenge and could come out with another impressive victory.

Oklahoma State at Alabama – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN2 (***)

• Oklahoma State comes into this game at 6-4 having lost two straight games. The Cowboys have a collection of talented players but have not found the best way to utilize their pieces; nine different players have been in the starting lineup in the first 10 games. LeBryan Nash, the McDonald’s All-American freshman, is starting to play better of late, seeing his minutes increase in the past three games. He’s now up to 12.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per game for the season. Markel Brown is a talented sophomore guard (9.7 PPG) and Cezar Guerrero is a freshman with a quick trigger that can fill it up in a hurry (7.7 PPG), though takes plenty of questionable shots per game. Upperclassmen Jean-Paul Olekemi (9.7 PPG) and, especially, Keiton Page (12.7 PPG) are the leaders of the team that will look to ignite the upset in this one.
• Alabama was ranked in the top 15 to begin this month, but the Crimson Tide have suffered three disappointing losses in the past three weeks, albeit to some good teams. Anthony Grant’s team lost at home to Georgetown on a game-winning three from the Hoyas, and they followed that one with two road losses to Dayton and Kansas State. Bama has had trouble scoring in those games. They aren’t a very effective offensive team, with a 104.8 efficiency that ranks 120^th nationally. The Tide get it done on the defensive end where they allow an eFG% of 40.6 that is seventh best in the country. Jamychal Green, Tony Mitchell, and Trevor Releford are big time athletes who all average double figure scoring and can lock down defensively.
• This game is technically not a home game for Alabama, since it is being played in Birmingham as part of the 2011 Legacy Credit Union Holiday Classic. But for all intents and purposes, consider the Crimson Tide the home team as they will draw the much larger crowd in their home state. Bama has fallen victim to a few upsets this season, as they were the favored team in all three of their losses. But don’t expect a repeat in this one, as Oklahoma State is still a work in progress and the solid defense of Alabama should lead them to a victory.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 201
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

1. Tobacco Road Blues: Adrian Atkinson (@FreeportKid) drops all sorts of interesting stats on North Carolina throughout the day. He’s also taken the torch from Luke Winn and David Hess by charting North Carolina‘s defense through the first quarter of the season. To put it mildly, the findings are fascinating. First and foremost, Harrison Barnes is a horrendous defender. Barnes is allowing opponents to shoot over 50% from the field. Shockingly, Dexter Strickland is second worst in field goal defense. Not surprisingly John Henson dominates the category, holding opponents to 24.3% (!) from the field. The final surprise for me was how dominant Reggie Bullock was this year compared to last year. Atkinson admits that there’s probably a little luck at play here, but Bullock has the highest stop percentage (at 71.8%). I also think it’s important that Bullock guards the perimeter, leaving Henson and Tyler Zeller free to get in position for rebounds (so nearly every missed shot leads to a stop). I think we will do a more in-depth post looking at the defensive styles of the Tar Heel defenders to try and explain some of these numbers (specifically Barnes and Bullock), but check out Atkinson’s piece first.
2. ESPN (or full Insider article): Speaking of Barnes’ struggles, is his draft stock slipping? Chad Ford thinks that Barnes is in danger of slipping, and his argument makes sense. Barnes is living on his jump shot this season (taking one dribble or less). He has turned the ball over too much and generally hasn’t tried to get to the rim with regularity. Combine that with the defensive numbers mentioned above, and it’s a little surprising Barnes hasn’t fallen already.
3. Fayetteville Observer: Moving down the road to Duke, the Blue Devils only have one game in the next 17 days. Just for comparison Duke started the season playing eight games in 18 days. In addition to giving the team a rest for finals, the break should give Mike Krzyzewski a chance to really work on all of the big picture things that were too big to tackle in between games. The primary issue is defense: “‘The coaches stressed that defense has always been part of the Duke standards,” Thornton said. “This year we haven’t really lived up to those standards, so Coach talked to me, Quinn (Cook) and Seth (Curry) and said it starts with us. From now on, we don’t care who we’re playing, we’re going to get after them.”
4. Gant Daily: Before the season, Florida State had a lot of hype, but so far the Seminoles have struggled to live up to all of it. Michael Snaer is still really excited about their potential though. Florida State’s three-game losing streak, which came during a gauntlet stretch of four games over a week, showcased the team’s offensive struggles, most of which come from turning the ball over too often. If the Seminoles can protect the rock and crash the defensive glass more, look out.
5. Soaring To Glory: Boston College‘s recent start-to-finish win over Stony Brook and the competitive loss to Providence has renewed a sense in optimism in the team. The Eagles’ dominant stretch against the Seawolves came in the five minutes before the half, when they extended a three-point lead to a 17-point advantage. The Eagles also played well for much of the game against Penn State and Boston University (read: they had slim leads in the second half) before falling apart in the second half. It’s too early to make a definitive generalization, but the trend definitely looks positive for Steve Donahue’s squad.

BONUS I: Mike Krzyzewski won Sports Illustrated‘s Sportsman of the Year. Here’s his acceptance speech. It’s worth the time.

BONUS II: Yesterday, I linked a great profile of Virginia’s center Assane Sene, but made the mistake not to mention the new documentary that follows four Senegalese players including the Cavalier big man. See the trailer below:

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

As we move into December, the first big Saturday of the year (highlighted by the battle in Lexington) is now upon us. Not to mention we get a nice preview of things to come on Friday evening.

#6 Florida @ #3 Syracuse – 7 PM EST Friday on ESPN (*****)

• Syracuse has three distinct advantages in this game despite playing a top ten opponent. One is home court, two is height, and three is depth. The Orange have taller players at every position, one through five, and Jim Boeheim can go a legitimate ten deep into his bench. Against a Florida team that will be without forward Erik Murphy, Syracuse may be able to overwhelm the guard-heavy Gators. The key for the Orange will be defense. The 2-3 zone creates a fantastic match-up given Florida’s preferred style of offense, shooting lots of threes. If the Orange can be active and extend the perimeter of the zone, Florida will have a tough time.

• The key for Florida is simple: make threes. To do that however, the Gators must establish Patric Young early and often. Playing without Murphy, Young is Florida’s only reliable post player. If he can’t get going, Syracuse won’t have to worry about extending the zone and leaving holes in the middle. If Young gets off to a fast start, the Orange will have to respect his presence by packing its defense in a bit more inside the arc. That will give Florida’s dynamic guards the opportunity to make shots. With Kenny Boynton and Mike Rosario both shooting almost 50% from deep and two other Gators lurking as potential snipers, Syracuse doesn’t want to be forced to do that.

Can UF Establish Patric Young Inside To Give Its Shooters Room?

• It’s always fun when a team that relies heavily on guards and the three point shot gets together with a team that plays almost exclusively zone. The Syracuse defense will tempt Florida to shoot the deep ball all night but Florida must work for open shots by establishing Young and some sort of an inside-out game. Keeping the zone off balance and moving the ball effectively are always keys to finding open shots. Defensively, Florida has to do better. Syracuse is much more efficient on that end of the floor while the Gators rank a pedestrian 52nd in the nation. Although three point shooting is the big key in this game, Florida’s defense could cost them in a tight game.

Apparently all it took was a bit of concentration and, suddenly, a North Carolina team that looked disorganized and unfocused against UNLV was playing exemplary defense against Wisconsin. Kendall Marshall, who struggled on that end against the Running Rebels, did well in his stints guarding perhaps the most offensively potent point guard in the country in Jordan Taylor. John Henson and Tyler Zeller, for the most part, kept good track of their rotations, provided near-perfect help defense and stayed focused for the whole shot clock. Dexter Strickland’s campaign of perimeter harassment against Taylor was some of the best on-ball defense I’ve seen by any North Carolina player in the past decade. Aside from a few critical missed rotations (notably one that lead to an open three for Taylor in the final minute), the defense simply looked exemplary.

The Heels Were Lucky to Escape Wisconsin With a Win (AP)

As for the offense, I’m less sure. While the Tar Heels shot 42.2% against the second-best defense in the country, turnovers plagued the team. North Carolina had fourteen turnovers in a slow game, a difference that kept Wisconsin in the game down to the very last minute. Think turnovers don’t matter that much? North Carolina had 45 field goal attempts while Wisconsin had 64 shots from the field. Wisconsin had nearly 50% more chances to get a bucket than North Carolina. Only great defense by UNC and 19 points from the free throw line kept the team from giving up to the Badgers. Marshall alone managed to tie Wisconsin’s entire team with four turnovers apiece. It’s honestly near-miraculous that North Carolina won given the discrepancy in number of field goal attempts.

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1. Above the Rim: Harrison Barnes‘ status is in question for Wednesday’s game against Wisconsin. This would obviously be a huge blow to the North Carolina‘s offense as Barnes is one of the few players who creates for himself in the halfcourt. Roy Williams said Barnes sprained his ankle in the loss to UNLV and that PJ Hairston and Reggie Bullock would share his minutes if Barnes had to sit out. I will be surprised if Barnes doesn’t play at all, but I don’t expect him to be 100% or to play his normal minutes.
2. Charlotte Observer: JP Giglio previews the ACC/Big 10 Challenge as a chance for the ACC to bounce back from a slow start. The best of the conference battles certainly looks to favor the Big 10 this year, but that doesn’t mean most of the match-ups aren’t interesting. Florida State is looking to bounce back after a couple of tough losses with a game at Michigan State; NC State is looking to continue its hot start with a game against Indiana; and Virginia is out to back up its preseason hype with a game against Michigan. We will have more coverage of the Challenge throughout the week.
3. AnnArbor.com: Speaking of the Michigan – Virginia game, AnnArbor.com takes a look at the keys to the match-up from the Wolverines’ perspective. One thing I’d add: Virginia is going to try to ugly it up, and they cannot play from behind (between a mediocre offense and a slow tempo the Cavaliers can’t play from behind anyone, much less against Michigan).
4. BC Interruption: The Boston College blog takes a look at the impact of ACC expansion on “Feast Week” tournaments. Essentially, the addition of two more elite programs will make it even harder for most ACC teams to participate in the higher-profile tournaments like the Maui Invitational (and, usually, the NIT Tip-Off). Most tournaments have a four-year “cycle” before a team can participate again. Before adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh only half of the slots were available (with the other two taken by Duke and North Carolina). With the addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh those spots will only become harder to come by.
5. Charlotte Observer: Austin Rivers has been getting plenty of press this season, and a lot of it has been critical. The Duke freshman is taking it in stride: “Those people’s jobs are to critique. The coaches and my teammates are happy with the way I’m playing. It’s sports and there’s nothing I can do about it. I’m not going to call ESPN and be like, ‘Hey, can you stop that.'” Also one positive side effect of the (now over) NBA lockout was that Doc Rivers got to watch his son play in Maui.

EXTRA: Speaking of the NBA lockout, CBSSports.com was the first to announce that the lockout would be over with the first games of a 66-game season starting Christmas Day. That gives college basketball another month to grab the attention of NBA fans.

North Carolina‘s loss Saturday exposed several flaws in the team and in people’s perception of the team. When Ken Pomeroy ranked the Tar Heels fourth in the country, many national analysts scoffed. But don’t forget: the Tar Heels were not dominant last year. They got beat handily by a Duke team (without Kyrie Irving) in the ACC Tournament Finals after squeaking by Miami by two points and Clemson in overtime. Yes, they added PJ Hairston and James Michael McAdoo. But the unsinkable aura many gave this team coming into the season was a little overboard.

It is also important to look at the game and the details surrounding it to understand the loss. First and foremost, UNLV was a little underrated even though the Rebels were getting votes in the AP and Coaches’ polls before knocking off North Carolina. Second, the game was at a “neutral” site: yes, it wasn’t at the Thomas & Mack Center, but most of the crowd wore scarlet (I’d estimate the crowd was around 65-70% for UNLV). Third, the game comes right before North Carolina’s two toughest non-conference games of the season against Wisconsin and at Kentucky. That’s not to say Roy Williams or his team consciously overlooked UNLV, but the game happened in a “tournament” (less than 24 hours after their game with South Carolina) and right before they face two very good opponents.

Where Was Tyler Zeller Against UNLV?

Before looking at what went wrong in the game, it is important to look at what North Carolina did well. Most notably, PJ Hairston played incredibly. In only 13 minutes Hairston scored a team-high (tied with Harrison Barnes) 15 points on six shots. He has had a very productive season so far and has really excelled in his role off the bench. People asked going into this season who the knockdown shooter would be for North Carolina, and Hairston has answered the call although I think he is a year away from being a true go-to guy like Wayne Ellington. In a similar vein Reggie Bullock was terrific, going 4-5 from the field despite a couple of turnovers. He also played great defense for stretches. If Williams can get this much productivity out of these two, he will have to think about starting one of them over Dexter Strickland at some point. It should also be mentioned that the Tar Heels went on a run in the first half with Kendall Marshall on the bench. Marshall played well on the offensive end, especially in the first half when he knocked down a big three to put North Carolina up five.

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