Predicted finish: 2nd

2010-11 Record: 18-13, 7-9 (7th, Big 12)

Head Coach: Scott Drew, 9th season

Key Losses: Lacedarius Dunn (19.5 PPG)

It’s been an up-and-down stretch lately for Scott Drew at Baylor. In 2007-08, Drew led the Bears to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in decades, capping a remarkable turnaround for the program just five years after the ugly Patrick Dennehy murder scandal. With high expectations the next season, though, the Bears flopped; they then recovered for an Elite Eight appearance in 2009-10 before tumbling to a 7-9 record in Big 12 play last season. If the trend continues, perhaps BU will make a Final Four this season. That’s not even a wild scenario, considering the Bears have one of the nation’s most ferocious frontcourts. Even with all of the talent in Waco, they’ll need better point guard play, and they must learn how to play as a cohesive unit. If that happens, there’s no stopping these guys.

Potential Lotto Pick Perry Jones Made An Unexpected Return To Waco, But Will Chemistry Issues Plague The Bears Again?

The Stars: Perry Jones could have made millions as an NBA Draft lottery pick this spring, but he bypassed that option and returned for his sophomore season at Baylor. Although the 6’11” forward wasn’t perfect last season, he was still one of the nation’s top freshman. In 2011-12, he’s a Big 12 Player of the Year and All-America candidate who can score from anywhere on the floor. The other star opposite of Jones is Quincy Miller, the freshman stud who loves to attack the offensive glass and use his freakish athleticism in transition. Like Jones, Miller is a long, fast forward with great defensive potential and a future in the NBA.

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I. Renko is an RTC columnist.

Question: Which Transfers Will Have the Biggest Impact This Season?

Every year, college basketball fans draw up their preseason predictions of conference champions and NCAA Tournament fields based on returning players and incoming recruits.  But each year, a handful of key transfers play a pivotal role in leading their teams to a conference championship or NCAA Tournament bid.  Which transfers are most likely to play that role this year?

Pierre Jackson and Gary Franklin, Baylor — With the return of Perry Jones and the addition of blue-chip recruits Quincy Miller and Deuce Bello (coming soon to an All-Name Team near you), expectations for the upcoming season in Waco are high.  The Bears have more raw talent than almost anyone in the Big 12 and have a realistic shot at a conference crown.  But Baylor also had quality talent and relatively high expectations last year, only to find their season upended by mediocrity at the most important spot on the floor — the point guard position.  AJ Walton was thrust into the role of replacing Tweety Carter and responded by posting an obscene 32.1% turnover rate.  In a not-unrelated phenomenon, the Bears finished the season ranked 322nd in Division I in team turnover percentage.

The Development of Franklin and/or Jackson Could Be the Difference-Maker for Baylor This Season

If Scott Drew can’t find someone to settle things down at the point this year, the Bears may disappoint again.  And that’s where Jackson and Franklin come in.  Jackson is a well-regarded JUCO transfer and Franklin a formerly touted recruit who transferred from Cal after just a semester.  Franklin will not be eligible until the spring semester, but both will have a chance to pin down the starting point guard job.  If either proves to be a stable floor general, the Bears could have their first conference championship in more than 60 years.

Iowa State’s Starting Lineup — Okay, so maybe the entire starting lineup won’t consist of transfers, but it might come close.  Fred Hoiberg is trying to resuscitate the Iowa State program by resuscitating the careers of several D-I talents, including Chris Allen (Michigan State), Royce White (Minnesota), Anthony Booker (Southern Illinois), and Chris Babb (Penn State).  They make this list as a group because collectively, they will have the single biggest transfer impact on any BCS program this year.

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The Make or Break series will tell us what we need to know about each SEC team by looking at the three most important non-conference games on each team’s schedule. Depending on the outcome, these three games could make OR break that team’s season because of the strengths it shows or weaknesses it could expose. The next team in the series is the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Mississippi State is ready to forget about last season. The Bulldogs had their share of troubles. Point guard Dee Bost was suspended for the first nine games of the season. Renardo Sidney had missed all of the 2009-10 season and the first nine games last year due to eligibility reasons. Then Sidney marred the Bulldogs’ reputation by getting into a fight with a teammate in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. The team never appeared to get its chemistry down pat and limped to a 17-14 record and failing to make the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season.

Will Stansbury's Ongoing Gamble on Sidney Finally Pay Off?

But there are reasons to be more optimistic this year. Everyone is eligible to start the season. Sidney has lost over 20 pounds and is allegedly making strides to be a better teammate. The Bulldogs welcome transfer Arnett Moultrie to help him out down low. 2011-12 could be the year Rick Stansbury’s team turns things around and gets back to the NCAAs for the seventh time in 11 seasons.

The three key non-conference games that will make or break the Bulldogs schedule this season:

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1. The men’s basketball media day for the Big 12 begins this morning, but the women’s side produced some interesting comments yesterday. Baylor coach Kim Mulkey told reporters she would not schedule Texas A&M once it bolts for the SEC next year. She even likened the situation to a nasty divorce, saying “if it’s over, it’s over.” On the men’s side, Kansas coach Bill Self said a few weeks ago he would consider cutting Missouri from the schedule if it left the league, but he didn’t make any definitive comments like Mulkey. Although her decision to discontinue a series with A&M has no impact on Big 12 men’s hoops, it’s still an interesting thought to consider. Will Texas A&M’s Big 12 rivalries cease to exist? And if so, how soon will they become extinct?
2. Speaking of Big 12 basketball in Texas, new Texas Tech coach Billy Gillispie called his program a “goldmine” today, an optimistic view on a team that consists almost exclusively of new faces this year. On one hand, he’s right — Tech has the ability to recruit the entire state of Texas, and it’s a school with a lot of resources and recent tradition under Bob Knight. However, it’s more of a challenge than Gillispie makes it sound. Tech has struggled to fill its arena at times, and it’s had a tough time competing with the top Texas programs for players on the recruiting trail. If there’s a man to get things done in Lubbock, though, it’s probably Gillispie. After all, nobody would have ever called Texas A&M a “goldmine” either, but he created a consistently solid program there — and we shouldn’t forget that he also did very good things at UTEP prior to that.
3. We introduced you to freshman Quincy Miller in our New Faces series earlier this week, and he’s certainly one of several stars for the Baylor Bears this season. However, it’s sometimes easy to overlook the impact of incoming point guard Pierre Jackson, who garnered his own column over at Big12Hoops.com. It’s essential for Scott Drew to get consistent point guard play, and Jackson’s one of the top junior college recruits for the Class of 2011 at that position. At 5’10” in stature, he’s not going to wow anybody physically, but he’s a game-changing point guard who dishes, dunks and scores. Look out for Jackson as one of the key pieces on this year’s squad.
4. Keeping with the blog theme, a Missouri blog broke down the program’s eight “awful” months of turmoil, dating all the way back to a collapse during Big 12 play at the end of last season. When you take the time to reflect on the Tigers’ struggles, it’s astonishing what they’ve been through. They tumbled to an 8-8 finish in the league after a promising Top 10 ranking during non-conference play, and then lost head coach Mike Anderson to Arkansas. After that, of course, Missouri made the unpopular Frank Haith hire, who in turn found himself at the center of a controversy dating back from his days at Miami. Did we forget anything? How about the Matt Painter miss? Or the Laurence Bowers injury? Boy, oh boy, it’s been a rough eight months in Columbia.
5. Haith can at least take solace in a new recruit, though. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported yesterday afternoon that center Ryan Rosburg committed to Missouri, giving the Tigers some much-needed bulk in the paint. He’s 6’10” and nearly 250 pounds, and he chose MU over Virginia, Tennessee, Virginia Tech and Missouri State. His older brother, Andy, has already walked on to the team, so that’s also an interesting storyline to keep an eye on. Rosburg isn’t considered an elite recruit, but he should provide the Tigers with a back-to-the-basket option in the paint in coming years. A true center in Columbia? Believe it. These aren’t Mike Anderson’s Tigers anymore.

It wouldn’t be Midnight Madness without a dunk contest (or a hundred), so we fished around to find the 13 best dunks from the opening weekend’s many extravaganzas.  There are some impressive flushes here, but nothing like Keion Bell’s record-breaker from last season, so if you know of something better send it to us @rushthecourt or rushthecourt@yahoo.com for inclusion.

#13.75.  Another late addition — Rhode Island’s Jonathan “Sponge” Holton soaking up all kinds of nasty with this 360.

#13.5.  A late addition (sent from reader, Dennis) — Reggie Smith of UNLV uses all 5’9″ of his frame to get after this one.  Unreal.

#13. Mitchell Watt of Buffalo Performs the Very Difficult Two-Ball Dunk.

#12. Marshall’s Justin Coleman Completes an Impossible Side-Backboard 360 (stick with it).

#11. White Men CAN Jump! (Duke’s Miles Plumlee Over His Brother).

#10. The Involvement of People in Farm Animal Costumes is Always Worthwhile (Minnesota’s Rodney Williams).

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1. More proof the season has almost arrived: the Big 12 announced its preseason awards last week, and at first glance, there are only a few points of controversy. Keeping in mind that preseason speculation means essentially nothing, it’s worth debating whether or not Texas guard J’Covan Brown should make the All-Big 12 team after starting zero games for the Longhorns in 2010-11. Also, Baylor’s Pierre Jackson and KU forward Kevin Young have decent arguments for Newcomer of the Year over Royce White, and Texas guard Myck Kabongo could push LeBryan Nash for Freshman of the Year honors. In the end, though, it’s all meaningless. Wake us up when the real awards come out in March.
2. In your Surprising Realignment News of the Day, it appears Air Force actually told the Big 12 it was not interested in joining the league. In one of the more candid quotes of the week, AFA athletic director Hans Mueh said he simply “can’t recruit against Texas, Oklahoma [and] Oklahoma State.” Mueh’s programs would probably have trouble recruiting in any power conference, but the Big 12 likely won’t shed any tears after losing out on Air Force. That is, unless the rest of the Big East leftovers turn it down.
3. For now, it doesn’t look like the Miami firestorm surrounding Missouri coach Frank Haith has affected his staff’s recruiting efforts much. Haith’s Tigers picked up a verbal over the weekend from Negus Webster-Chan, a 6’7″ forward from Huntington, W.V., and most of the credit for this commitment goes to assistant coach Tim Fuller. Webster-Chan pledged to Louisville originally, but when Fuller left the Cardinals for Columbia, he backed out of his commitment. Webster-Chan is the fifth recruit to verbal to MU for the Class of 2012, and while none are traditional blue-chip recruits, it’s at least a sign that players aren’t terrified of Haith’s job status. By the way, may as well throw this out there: Webster-Chan attended the same high school as former USC superstar O.J. Mayo. Counts for something, right?
4. SLAM magazine published an article on Friday about Baylor’s Perry Jones, and the sophomore stud made some interesting comments to the magazine. He addressed last season’s suspension from the NCAA and also discussed his future plans for the NBA, saying he wants to be a “superstar.” As the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year, he certainly has a chance to nab that title.
5. All anyone ever wants to talk about with realignment is who may be joining; but what about how many should join? Tom Keegan at the Lawrence Journal-World has some advice: and that’s for the Big 12 to stay at 10 teams. After 15 years of having 12 schools, Keegan argues further expansion would disrupt the balance of the league and cause many of the same problems that have plagued the Big 12 since its inception: losing out on BCS bowls because of a league championship game (see: Missouri, 2007) and unbalanced basketball scheduling.  Interesting argument.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

It was easy to get energized about Vanderbilt’s chances next season once the somewhat surprising news was announced that versatile swingman Jeffery Taylor would return for his senior campaign. Taylor joining forces with an experienced and talented guard tandem of John Jenkins and Brad Tinsley, along with efficient big man Festus Ezeli and quite a bit of depth, immediately gave folks in Nashville reason to believe they could contend with the powerhouse roster Kentucky assembled in the SEC. While those are four legitimate reasons for excitement – it’s awfully rare a team without a brand name like Duke, Carolina, Kentucky or UCLA returns their top four scorers (including three possible first round picks) from a top-15 efficient offense in the one-and-done era – I won’t be completely sold on Vanderbilt’s chances to usurp the Wildcats, or even fend off Florida, if their team defense doesn’t improve dramatically. The ‘Dores ranked a meager 88th in the nation in defensive efficiency last season, a mark good for tenth in the SEC, well behind the likes of both Kentucky and Florida. Their inadequacies on defense were a major reason why those of us tantalized by Vandy’s talent last season was so dumbfounded when they couldn’t quite put it all together on a sustained basis and why they ultimately dropped their final two games of the season to Florida and to #12 seed Richmond. The most confusing part: Vandy seemingly has the ancillary parts to be a strong defensive club. Taylor is regarded by NBA scouts as a premier stopper on the perimeter and Ezeli ranked 16th in block percentage in 2010-11.

Taylor needs to coax his teammates into playing stronger defense

The near-unanimous reaction following the NBA Draft declaration deadline was that Texas was the big loser. This isn’t necessarily false, but were we all that surprised Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson bolted for the pros, especially once it was known Thompson would be a lottery selection? Playing with a fellow Canadian in Myck Kabongo may seem enticing until millions of dollars are staring you in the face. Hamilton was never suited for a structured college game, either, and could really take off in the pros as a polished, explosive scorer capable of putting up points in bunches. The most shocking decision was that of Cory Joseph, who opted to leave school primarily on the basis of one workout just prior to the deadline, a decision that very few saw coming from an undersized point guard without mature floor instincts. Joseph likely saw the writing on the wall – that he’d be playing primarily as a two-guard opposite Kabongo and this move would devastate his draft stock even more – and ditched while he had a chance at the first round. Ben Howland must have been even more crushed than Rick Barnes, though. With Derrick Williams and Momo Jones out in Tucson, the opportunity was there to re-establish UCLA’s status as the premier Pac-10 representative after two tumultuous seasons. Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee are far from locks to have their name called in the first round, yet both made the abrupt decision to forgo their remaining eligibility and take their talents to the NBA. With Honeycutt and Lee joining forces with Reeves Nelson, Josh Smith, Lazeric Jones, Jerime Anderson, Tyler Lamb and incoming two-guard Norman Powell in the fray, UCLA had a top-10 roster had the parts stayed together. It’s a shame, really.

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