Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Tournament Commencement. Day one of the NCAA Tournament proper, the field of 64, is officially in the books. Games were won, upsets were wrought, careers ended and through it all, bracket hope springs eternal for those who survived their first big test. The second half of “second round” competition will tip off in just a few hours, followed by a weekend of further elimination and refinement. There is no mistaking it: the NCAA Tournament is here and we’ve only barely scratched the surface of the drama to come in later rounds.

Your Watercooler Moment. What? Harvard?

The most shocking result of the day came as an almost unthinkable late-night surprise (Getty Images).

Next year was going to be the year I picked Harvard to not only win its opening round game, but – depending on how the matchups shook out – quite possibly rip off a sweet-16 or even Elite 8 run. The Crimson get seniors Brandyn Curry and Kyle Casey, snagged this offseason in a sweeping academic scandal, back for 2013-14, along with another solid recruiting class and a promising young backcourt in Siyani Chambers and Wesley Saunders. The Crimson have all the pieces to crash the field next season. It is from this backdrop that you can understand why what Harvard pulled off Thursday night at EnergySolutions Arena was a year ahead of schedule. The Crimson downed three-seed New Mexico in the biggest upset of the Tournament’s first day. It was also Harvard’s first ever NCAA Tournament win, and it came thanks to a depleted roster holding one of the nation’s best backcourt duos, Tony Snell and Kendall Williams, to a combined 17 points and two assists. The Lobos were a trendy Final Four pick. They had size and experience and a skilled seven-foot big man to anchor their offensive attack. They had the considerable weight of being the Mountain West’s Tournament entrepreneur. Harvard has its first Tournament win in school history and maybe the most remarkable upset we’ll see this March.

Also Worth Chatting About. A 12-5 Upset Double. You Saw it Coming.

A seeding mismatch left Oklahoma State with a brutal first-round matchup (AP Photo).

Because there was so little immediate uproar about teams actually getting in/left out of the Tournament, people channeled their anger towards the bracket itself. Two of the biggest points of contention within were Oregon’s mystifying 12 seed following a Pac-12 conference Tournament championship and Cal’s comfy opening-round location (San Jose). The Ducks deserved more respect than a 12-seed and the Bears, for all their success in conference play, did not deserve the benefit of playing so close to their Berkeley Campus. Oregon’s underseed wasn’t just a slight to Dana Altman’s team, it was a menacing first-round predicament for Oklahoma State, a five-seed criminally burdened with a Ducks team that was in contention for a Pac-12 regular season crown for much of the season. Oregon dominated Marcus Smart and company from start to finish; an innocent observer would have suggested Oregon was the five seed, and OSU the 12. A few hours later, fellow Pac-12 12-seed Cal did not disappoint the hometown crowd in avenging a regular season home loss to UNLV. Neither of these P-12 squads belonged in their respective bracket locations. Oregon is not a 12 seed; it’s just not! And the Rebels, with their putative seeding advantage, never should have had to play what amounted to a road game in their opening-round matchup. None of it was very fair, and all of it confirmed what most instinctively believed upon bracket reveal Sunday afternoon: the committee screwed up.

Tonigh’s Quick Hits…

• Two One Seeds. Two Totally Different Stories. There are big expectations for Gonzaga this season. The questions aren’t about the Zags’ worthiness as a No. 1 seed so much as they are what follows: can Mark Few’s team finally break through into the deep rounds? Judging by their-opening round game against 16-seed Southern, the answer is an emphatic no. The Jaguars pushed Gonzaga to the brink in Salt Lake City, and were it not for a couple of clutch deep jumpers from point guard Kevin Pangos, Thursday may have brought the first-ever 16-1 toppling. Phew. Louisville’s first-round game was far less interesting. The Cardinals whipped North Carolina A&T, holding the Aggies to 48 points and validating their overall No. 1 seed in every which way.
• Memphis! Whenever Josh Pastner’s name cropped up in conversation, the impulsive reaction was to spew out the following statistic: 0. As in, tournament wins since Pastner took over the Tigers’ head coaching job in 2009. No longer will Pastner be juxtaposed with Tournament ignominy so immediately – Memphis fans will very much want another win or two before Pastner is off the hook – not after the Tigers fought off Matthew Dellavadova and Saint Mary’s in a highly anticipated 6-11 matchup Thursday. With Memphis headlong into a round-of-32 date with Michigan State this weekend, Pastner’s Tournament run is probably over. But the first one is always the toughest, or so they say, and Pastner and his team managed to accomplish that much in a year where first-round failure would have triggered an unrelenting stream of local fan venom throughout the long offseason.

…and Misses.

• Three Trendy Upset Picks Fall Short. In any given year, there are a few matchups where you feel confident enough, matchup-wise, to pull the trigger on a brave and courageous high seed victory. I heard a wide selection of suggested first-round knock offs in the lead up to Thursday, and three of the most frequent were (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler, (14) Davidson over (3) Marquette and (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona. All of which seemed very reasonable for different reasons: Mike Muscala can really work the paint; Davidson boasts one of the better frontlines in the country along with an elite in-game coach; Belmont is almost perennially Tournament-worthy under Rick Byrd. I wouldn’t have been shocked in the least to see any of those dominoes fall. None of them did, only Davidson really came close and now those doubted favorites (Butler, Marquette, Arizona) can press forward without the burden of potential first-round upset embarrassment.
• Not So Efficient Now, Pitt. According to Ken Pomeroy’s win prediction formula, Pittsburgh went into Thursday’s 8-9 game against Wichita State with a 73 percent chance of advancing. Pomeroy’s efficiency ranks have recommended the Panthers all season (they ranked eighth as of Thursday in his per-possession database), and many data-savvy bracketeerists took that as a cue to simply and heedlessly push Pitt on through to a third-round matchup with Gonzaga, where Jamie Dixon’s team would give the Zags all kinds of physicality matchup issues. The only problem? The Shockers, ranked 34^th in Pomeroy’s system, were more efficient than Pitt in every conceivable way throughout their 40-minute second-round tussle, and after an 18-point win it is Wichita, not the Panthers, who will get a clean shot at dropping the Zags this weekend.
• The Point Guard Duel That Wasn’t. More than a genuine interest in seeing whether South Dakota State could pull off an unlikely upset of three-seed Michigan Thursday night, there was considerable buzz about what Nate Wolters – a semi-nationally known lead guard with an alluring all-around game – could conjure up against consensus First Team All-American and projected first-round draft pick Trey Burke. Fans were expecting a back-and-forth, individual, put-the-team-on-my-back kind of PG battle; this was Wolters’ night. It never materialized. Burke finished with just six points on 2-of-12 shooting and Wolters dropped 10 while making just three of 14 field goal attempts. The game itself was competitive going into the half, but without Wolters doing crazy, Wolters-like, 53-point things, the Jackrabbits never really stood a chance. The point guard battle of the Tournament was a dud and the game wasn’t much better.

Game-Winner of the Night. Everyone’s confident Davidson upset pick looked really convincing for about 35 minutes. Then Marquette shifted gears, found its three-point stroke late and Vander Blue did the rest.

(h/t Rob Dauster, CBT)

Thursday’s All-Americans.

• Derrick Nix, Michigan State (NPOY) – The first game on Thursday was not what anyone would call competitive: Nix poured in 23 points and 15 rebounds as the Spartans controlled Valpo throughout.
• Dwayne Evans, Saint Louis – A lot of people like Saint Louis as an Elite 8-Final Four-range team. Evans (24 points, six rebounds) gave you no reason to reconsider in Thursday’s stomping of New Mexico State.
• Arsalan Kazemi, Oregon – Scoring touch aside, Kazemi affects the game exclusively with his defense and rebounding more than perhaps any other player in this Tournament. His 11-17 double-double Thursday is standard issue evidence.
• Dorian Green, Colorado State – Not all of the Mountain West flopped Thursday. UNLV and New Mexico are good as gone, but CSU, thanks in part to Green’s 26 points against Missouri, are gearing up for an intriguing third-round fixure with Louisville.
• Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga – I can’t ignore Olynyk’s 21 points and 10 rebounds – Olynyk has been consistently awesome all season. Whether he can lift the Zags to a win Saturday over Wichita State, I’m not so sure.

Tweet of the night. Beating a rugged three-seed like New Mexico, who many believed actually merited deserved a two-seed, is a huge feat in the moment. It’s even bigger for Harvard in a historical context.

New Mexico just became the Land of Disenchantment. And brackets implode nationwide. Like everybody else on Twitter right now #Harvard

— Chuck Carlton (@ChuckCarltonDMN) March 22, 2013

1. On the Eve of the NCAA Tournament’s first day, five-star 2013 prospect and McDonald’s All-American Julius Randle committed to Kentucky over Big 12 schools Texas and Kansas as well as Florida. The #3 overall recruit was rumored by some to be headed to Lawrence and Bill Self but he decided to join what has now been called the greatest recruiting class (on paper) of all-time. The Wildcats have commitments from four top-2o recruits and have four players who are the #1 high school player at their respective positions. Randle enrolling at Kansas would have made the Jayhawks one of the handful of national title favorites next season. Self is already bringing in the nation’s #2 overall recruiting class, led by top 30 prospects Brannen Greene and Wayne Selden, and the Jayhawks are still in the hunt for the #1 player in the class, Andrew Wiggins.
2. Here are 68 reasons to love the NCAA Tournament, from Bobby La Gesse of the Ames Tribune. He immediately brings up the #16 over a #1 prediction, which would be fun to see this year. Western Kentucky has the best chance to pull off the monumental upset, according to Vegas, as the Hilltoppers are 20-point underdogs against Kansas. While such a major upset seems impossible, the 20-point line has been overcome before. Last season, #2 seed Norfolk State was a 21.5-point underdog when it took out #2 seed Missouri in the Second Round.
3. La Salle advanced past Boise State in a First Four game last night, and the Explorers will face #4 seed Kansas State on Friday in Kansas City. Jeff Borzello at CBSSports.com thinks La Salle’s small lineup could be poised for a run in the Tournament. Guys like Ramon Galloway (21 points against Boise State) will play key roles against the likes of Angel Rodriguez, one of the backcourt leaders for Bruce Weber’s Wildcats. If Kansas State can pound the ball inside, the Wildcats should win comfortably, but if it becomes an uptempo game ruled by guard play, the Explorers might have the advantage.
4. Want to know why your favorite team won’t win the national championship next month? Check out Andy Glockner’s piece here. He briefly explains why 67 Tournament teams won’t cut down the nets next month in Atlanta. He dismisses the #9-#13 seeds altogether (Sorry, Oklahoma and Iowa State), and he doesn’t like #5 Oklahoma State’s draw with Oregon in the Second Round. Kansas‘ point guard struggles scare Glockner, but he admits to picking the Jayhawks early in the season and as recently as January.
5. Speaking of Oregon, the underseeded Ducks face #5 seed Oklahoma State in a  match-up that is much too even for that spot in the bracket. ESPN’s Jason King thinks it will be one of the best games in the Round of 64, and it’s hard to disagree with him. The Ducks finished second in the Pac-12 regular season standings and they also won the conference tournament and played great this year when healthy, which is what they are heading into Thursday.

Travis Ford couldn’t have felt great when the bracket was announced on Sunday. His Cowboys, a #5 seed, were paired with the most under-seeded team in the Dance, the Oregon Ducks. It was obvious that the selection committee had no respect for the Pac-12, as the Ducks finished second in the regular season Pac-12 race and were apparently on the bubble until winning the conference tournament over the weekend. The folks over at Busting The Bracket think Oregon should have been a #5 or #6 seed, as a contrast. The committee didn’t seem to care that four of Oregon’s eight losses came without one of its best players, freshman guard Dominic Artis, who leads the team with 3.4 APG. With Artis in the lineup, the Ducks beat UNLV, Arizona, and swept UCLA.

Travis Ford Had A Great Season But Was Given No Breaks The First Weekend Of The Dance. (Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press)

Nate Silver gives the Cowboys a 60.5% chance of beating the Ducks and Vegas has OSU as a three-point favorite. If Oklahoma State can survive the Round of 64, it will face a Final Four sleeper before the Sweet Sixteen, #4 seed Saint Louis. The Billikens have become a dark horse to make the Final Four during the last month or so. They swept the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament championships ahead of more nationally-popular programs such as Butler and VCU. They went 5-0 against those teams this year and beat #3 seed New Mexico by 14 at home on New Year’s Eve. The Billikens were constructed well by the late Rick Majerus and have been led by senior Kwamain Mitchell, who averages 10.4 PPG and 3.0 APG. Like Oregon, Saint Louis can discount a few losses while Mitchell was out with an injury. He sat out the beginning of the year and the Billikens still went 8-3. Since his return on December 28, they have won 19 of 22 games. Take out the losses to Santa Clara and Washington without Mitchell and you could argue they should be a #3 seed, more bad news for Oklahoma State.

Read the rest of this entry »

We released the Official RTC Bracket for the South and East Regions earlier today — be sure to check that out if you need a refresher on our methodology for this exercise — and we’ll save you the fluff this time and cut right to the chase with the Midwest and West Regions. (note: our Final Four selections are after the analyses)

Quick Hitters From the Midwest Region

• Advancing to Atlanta: #1 Louisville
• Round of 64 Upset: #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis
• Later Round Upset: N/A
• Three Most Disputed Games: #5 Oklahoma State over #12 Oregon, #11 St. Mary’s over #6 Memphis, #2 Duke over #3 Michigan State

Four Questions About the Midwest Region

Louisville is the odds-on favorite to not just advance out of the Midwest Region, but win the National Championship. Which team has the best chance at dashing Louisville’s title hopes?

Does Pitino Have Another One of These In His Immediate Future? (Getty Images)

Andrew Murawa: After giving the Cards the nod as the overall #1 seed, the selection committee certainly didn’t do them any more favors, dropping them in, what is to me, the toughest region in the bracket. Once they get out of the Round of 64 in this region, Rick Pitino’s club could be facing nothing but dangerous clubs, from the nation’s best rebounding team in Colorado State, to one of the nation’s hottest teams in Saint Louis, to possibly Michigan State or Duke in the Elite Eight. All of those teams can beat the Cards. But the team with the best chance is certainly the Blue Devils, a squad that has already beaten them this season, albeit without Gorgui Dieng.

The #8 vs. #9 game is usually a coin-flip type of game, but it is a 100% consensus that Colorado State beats Missouri. Are the Rams that much better than Missouri?

Zach Hayes: The Rams are by no means world-beaters, but the consensus opinion probably stems from their ability to compete where Missouri excels: on the boards. Colorado State ranks in the nation’s top two in both offensive and defensive rebounding, a glass-crashing tenacity which should work to negate the rebounding prowess of both Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers. The confidence also resides in how shaky Missouri has been at the tail end of close games despite featuring an elite point guard in Phil Pressey. Most bracket prognosticators would rather go to war with a Rams team starting five seniors over Missouri’s constant unpredictability away from home, where their only scalps came against the dregs of the SEC.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. If you’re still tinkering with your bracket and unsure of which upsets to pick or which #2 or #3 seed to beat a #1, take a look at Nate Silver‘s article here. He gives each team’s probability of advancing to each round. For the most part, higher seeds are given better odds to advance, but not in every case. The #3 seed in the South Region, Florida, has the best odds in that region to make the Final Four at 37.1%. #4 seed Michigan (12.8%) has a better shot to reach Atlanta than #2 seed Georgetown (6.9%). Not surprisingly, Indiana and Louisville are the Tournament’s biggest favorites. Both teams have better than 50% chances to reach the Final Four.
2. Seth Davis thinks the Kansas Jayhawks have the easiest path to the Final Four of any of the #1 seeds. It’s also nice to see Davis agree with me that while #5 seed VCU is the sexy pick to beat Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen, they won’t be able to knock off #4 seed Michigan in the Round of 32. The Rams thrive on turning teams over and getting easy buckets. Kansas turns the ball over on 19% of its possessions, a prime candidate for a VCU upset; but Michigan leads the nation with just a little over a 14% turnover rate. VCU won’t be able to turn Michigan over enough times to maintain a lead, and Wolverines guard Trey Burke will lead his team to the Sweet Sixteen.
3. Myron Medcalf of ESPN.com talks about teams and players facing pressure in the NCAA Tournament, and he thinks Oklahoma State freshman guard Marcus Smart has plenty of pressure on him (4 out of 5) this weekend and possibly beyond. Smart is the reason the Cowboys earned a #5 seed and will be the driver if they advance to the second weekend. But as Medcalf points out, a bad or even average game from Smart against #12 seed Oregon could have Oklahoma State heading home after one game. Medcalf says Kansas’ Ben McLemore (3 out of 5 on his scale) also faces considerable pressure in this Tournament, and rightly so. Not as much as Smart, he thinks, but it’s hard to see the Jayhawks reaching the Final Four if McLemore doesn’t play up to his high-lottery pick potential.
4. The NCAA Tournament is so unpredictable that I’m beginning to think all four #1 seeds will advance to the Final Four this year just because people keep saying that this the year that all hell breaks loose on everyone’s brackets, or as Reid Forgrave argues here, that a #16 seed finally beats a #1 seed. He’s right that there have been numerous head-scratching losses this year, like Kansas losing to TCU and Michigan losing to Penn State. A #1 seed could lose this year, but not because there have been a lot of upsets already. He’s right because the odds are that it’s going to happen sooner or later. Teams that are #16 seeds are 0-112 all-time against #1 seeds, and typically, each #1 seed has between a 98% and 99.5% chance of winning its first game. With those odds, a #16 seed should have already won a game. So keep preaching, Mr. Forgrave. It’s bound to happen eventually and you’ll look like a genius. But it won’t be because people think a season is upside down and parity is filling the land. It will happen because the math tells us it’s bound to happen one of these years.
5. Roy Williams was “stunned” when he realized that his Tar Heels were an #8 seed in the NCAA Tournament this year and potentially paired with Kansas in the Round of 32. Asked if he believes the Selection Committee when they say they don’t go out of their way to set up prospective match-ups (this year could be the third time Williams faces Kansas since leaving Lawrence in 2003), he said: “I am not much of a buyer right now, guys.” He said he knew the committee didn’t put North Carolina in Kansas’ pod to fill the Sprint Center in Kansas City, but added, “It was a confusing (selection) show and I’m still confused and I’m a fairly intelligent person.” Williams is right that North Carolina probably should have been a better seed and potentially facing Kansas again is a little strange, but the committee has the better argument should they need it. If they were in the business of setting up future games, Kansas and Missouri would be matched up in Kansas City, not Kansas and North Carolina.

1. As Travis Hines of the Ames Tribune points out, it will be a contrast of styles when Iowa State and Notre Dame meet up in the Round of 64 in Dayton on Friday. The Cyclones can run and shoot as well as any team in the nation. They rely on their uptempo style and a barrage of three–pointers to win games. The Irish, as Hines notes, are 320th in the country in adjusted tempo, far from the running and gunning preference of Iowa State. Whichever team controls the tempo should win this one. And I think with the nerves of the NCAA Tournament involved, it will be easier for the Cyclones to draw the Irish into a fast-paced game to seize the advantage and advance.
2. It’s hard to argue with The Lawrence Journal-World‘s Tom Keegan when he says Kansas has the toughest road to the Final Four in Atlanta. The Jayhawks could face a hot (and vastly improved) North Carolina team in the Round of 32, a team that was transformed last month after Roy Williams decided to switch to a smaller lineup. The Tar Heels look more like a #6 or #7 seed at this point. After that, a likely meeting with VCU or Michigan awaits in the Sweet Sixteen. The Rams wreak as much havoc on opposing guards as any team in the country, and the Kansas backcourt isn’t the most adept team at handling pressure. But that’s if the Rams get by Michigan, a formerly #1 ranked team with National Player of the Year candidate Trey Burke running the show. Should they survive that, another formerly #1 ranked team, Florida, could be in the Elite Eight. That’s assuming Big East regular season c0-champs Georgetown aren’t there waiting instead. Advance the Jayhawks to the Final Four in your bracket at your own risk.
3. Speaking of bad draws,#5 seed Oklahoma State is stuck with #12 Oregon in the Round of 64. Joe Lunardi thinks the Ducks are underseeded “by four to six lines,” John Helsley notes. Cowboys head coach Travis Ford told Helsley that Oregon is “one of the best #12 seeds I’ve ever seen.” The Ducks finished second in the Pac-12 regular season standings and won the conference tournament last weekend, yet somehow ended up just inside the bubble when the bracket was announced. Oregon has been a sexy upset pick since the bracket was announced and opened as only three-point underdogs in Vegas.
4. The United States Basketball Writers Association named Kansas’ Jeff Withey and Ben McLemore second-team All-Americans on Monday, and they were joined by Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart. Smart was arguably the best freshman in the country this season, averaging 15.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 4.2 APG for the Cowboys. Ben McLemore averaged 16.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG for the Jayhawks and looks to be a top three pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. Jeff Withey saw the usual transformation that Kansas big men have experienced when given the chance to shine, averaging 13.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG, and 3.8 BPG this season.
5. It seems like a #2 seed loses in the Round of 32 almost every year. The #10 seed Oklahoma could make that happen again if they can take out San Diego State in the Round of 64, likely earning a shot against #2 seed Georgetown. And if the Sooners do knock off the Hoyas, senior guard Steven Pledger will probably have something to do with the upset. Pledger averages 11.8 PPG and shoots 37% from three-point range. His 20 points against Baylor on January 30 helped give the Sooners a 74-71 win — but when he struggles offensively, so does his team. In the last two games — losses to TCU and Iowa State — Pledger had 10 points total. That won’t cut it if an upset of Georgetown is in order.

There were no surprises on Selection Sunday in the Big 12 Conference. Kansas earned a #1 seed after winning the league tournament this weekend. Kansas State and Oklahoma State, the two other Top 25 teams in the conference, got top-five seeds. Oklahoma and Iowa State weren’t locks, but they had decent resumes heading into Sunday and both earned at-large bids without much debate. And Baylor, after bowing out in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament to the Cowboys, was relegated to the NIT. That’s what we thought would happen. So that’s five Big 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament, representative of a good-but-not-great year in the league. In the hours after Selection Sunday, here are a few quick reactions to each team’s respective draws:

1. Kansas State gets Kansas City: We knew Kansas would return to the Sprint Center for the Second and Third Rounds. That was a given. But after Kansas State lost to the Jayhawks in the finals on Saturday, it certainly wasn’t a given that the committee would send the Wildcats there. Fortunately for Bruce Weber, it got a lucky draw and can now bus a few hours from Manhattan for its second round game against the winner of La Salle/Boise State. After the loss on Saturday, Weber recalled his Illinois team’s trip to nearby St. Louis for the 2005 Final Four and said he’d of course enjoy a similar home atmosphere on the first weekend of the Tournament this March. There will surely be Jayhawks blue in the stands rooting against the Wildcats, but if they make it to the Third Round, they’ll have a significant advantage against either Ole Miss or Wisconsin. There’s an argument that playing in front of a semi-home crowd adds more pressure — Weber also recalled this particular situation occurring during his days as an assistant at Purdue — but we’re not sure that holds much weight. Bottom line is, playing a few hours from home is a big deal. It matters. It changes the dynamics of the match-up. And for a #4 seed especially, it’s a really fortunate situation.
   

   Doesn’t seem fair that the “reward” for the Cowboys is a date with the Pac-12 tournament champs.

2. Oklahoma State and collateral damage: Everybody’s angry that Oregon received a #12 seed. It doesn’t seem to make any logical sense, but the lost storyline here is how it affects Oklahoma State. The Cowboys now have to play the Pac-12 Tournament champions in their first NCAA Tournament game — and they’re the #5 seed, for crying out loud! Travis Ford’s team could not have drawn a worse #12 seed. It’s criminal, really. Oregon won at UNLV, beat Arizona and knocked off UCLA twice. You could argue that Oregon’s almost as good a team as Oklahoma State, based on both pure talent and resume. Life ain’t fair, is it?
3. No worries for Iowa State and Oklahoma: They did it. They got in, both as #10 seeds. The bubble wasn’t very strong this year (which seems to be a trend during the past five years or so, whatever that means for college basketball), but after the Big 12 Tournament, these two teams were far from locks. Oklahoma looked like it might be in trouble after completely imploding in a loss to the Cyclones in the quarterfinals, and then Iowa State went out and hardly competed with Kansas in the semifinals. The committee gave them difficult match-ups: Oklahoma faces San Diego State, and Iowa State will play Notre Dame. Both of those teams have been ranked in the Top 25 at some point this year and may be a little bit underseeded. But the important thing is that both ISU and OU got in. For the Sooners, it’s a notable accomplishment for Lon Kruger in just his second year. It’s been a quick rebuilding process, that’s for sure, but we’d expect nothing less from Kruger. And Fred Hoiberg did a nice job with this team after losing Royce White, Chris Allen and Scott Christopherson. The Cyclones are a fun, high-octane team that could surprise some people if they knock down some threes (you know they love to shoot them). Read the rest of this entry »

Throughout Monday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (9 AM), Midwest (11 AM), South (1 PM), West (3 PM). Here, Bennet Hayes (@HoopsTraveler) breaks down the Midwest Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC Midwest Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCmidwestregion).

You can also check out our RTC Podblast with Bennet breaking down the Midwest Region, which will drop both on the site and on iTunes Tuesday.

Midwest Region

Favorite: #1 Louisville (29-5, 17-4 Big East). It stands to reason that the top overall seed in the field is also the favorite to emerge from the Midwest Region. No team enters the NCAA Tournament hotter than Louisville, winners of 10 straight games and 13 of 14. Consider the Cards’ dominant second half of the Big East Tournament championship game a final warning for this field of 68 – there is no scarier team in this tournament.

No Sleep Until Atlanta For Siva, Pitino And The Rest Of The Louisville Cardinals, Your #1 Overall Seed

Should They Falter: #2 Duke (27-5, 14-5 ACC). It’s been a quiet few days for the Blue Devils, as the weekend’s ACC discussion largely revolved around Miami. But there they lurk at the bottom of the Midwest Region, poised as ever for a March sprint. Let’s not forget that the Devils’ ACC Tournament loss to Maryland was the first time Duke had lost with a healthy Ryan Kelly, and the senior’s clean bill of health is a far greater blessing for the Blue Devils than a #1 seed ever could have been. Duke also owns a victory over Louisville from back in November, albeit one with an asterisk attached – Cardinal big man Gorgui Dieng missed the Battle 4 Atlantis title game. For now though, Coach K and company are happy to let Louisville absorb all the buzz as the region’s favorite, while the dangerous Blue Devils attempt to navigate a manageable road to Indianapolis.

Grossly Overseeded: #6 Memphis (30-4, 19-0 Conference USA). Bracket projections had the Tigers anywhere between a #6 and a #9 seed. Josh Pastner’s team maxed out its seed line by receiving the #6, but now comes the hard part – beating an NCAA Tournament team. Memphis did that just once in the regular season (a win over #14 seed Harvard), a rare gap in the resume for any team in the field, much less a team so highly seeded. Let’s put it this way — Middle Tennessee, the most controversial at-large selection in this field and a potential Third Round opponent of the Tigers, had two more victories over NCAA teams, and just one more loss than Memphis. That’s not to say that the Blue Raiders are a better team than Memphis (although perhaps we will get to find that out), but you get the point.   

Grossly Underseeded: #12 Oregon (26-8, 15-6 Pac-12). Likely the most underseeded team in the entire field. Sure, the Ducks slogged their way to the finish line of the regular season, but the return of Dominic Artis and an impressive three-game run to win the Pac-12 Tournament had most bracketologists predicting a spot in an #8/#9 game for Oregon. Committee chair Mike Bobinski admitted that the Ducks were actually on the #11 seed line and had to be moved down as a result of logistical issues elsewhere in the bracket, but either way, this team is better than their double-digit seed would indicate.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Yesterday, of course, was Selection Sunday, and it was revealed that five teams from the Pac-12 will play in the NCAA Tournament. There were a couple of surprises, most notably Oregon receiving a #12 seed. The Ducks’ résumé was on par with most of the #7 seeds, so it comes as a head-scratcher that the Pac-12 Tournament champions, not to mention a team that was one game behind the regular season conference champion, would have been on the bubble. One now wonders what would have happened if Oregon had lost to UCLA on Saturday night instead of pulling out the victory; possibly a trip to Dayton for the First Four? The spokesperson for the NCAA selection committee said after the bracket was revealed that the Ducks were actually on the #11 seed line and were dropped down for bracketing purposes, but even that is still much lower than anyone expected. As to what typically occurs when a team gets underseeded in the NCAAs, it will be their opponent that gets the worst of it. That lucky team is Oklahoma State, who perhaps thought it’d be facing a team like Temple or La Salle coming into the day; not the Pac-12 Tournament champs.
2. Almost as looked forward to as the actual unveiling of the field of 68 is the announcement of game times, networks, and commentators for the Second Round match-ups. Those were released late last night, and here they are. The Ducks are the first Pac-12 team to hit the floor, and they will do so on Thursday at 1:40 PM PT on TNT. Calling the game will be a solid trio consisting of Brian Anderson, Dan Bonner, and Marty Snider. The two other Pac-12 teams to play Thursday are Arizona (vs. Belmont; TNT), and California (in a rematch against UNLV; TruTV), in two games that will virtually be playing at the same time that afternoon. The Wildcats tip at 4:20 PM with the superb team of Spero Dedes, Doug Gottlieb, and Jamie Maggio calling the action, while Cal will begin seven minutes later with the same bunch that Oregon had. On Friday, Colorado will tip off against Illinois at 1:40 PM on TNT, with Tim Brando, Mike Gminski, and Otis Livingston calling the action, and UCLA plays Minnesota at 6:57 PM on TruTV with the same crew.
3. Not only was the NCAA field released on Sunday, but the NIT revealed its 32-team bracket as well. Arizona State, Stanford, and Washington will compete in the consolation tournament, with the Sun Devils and Cardinal hosting Detroit and Stephen F. Austin, respectively, and the Huskies traveling to Provo to face BYU.
4. Despite its #12 seed, Oregon has the talent to make a run through this year’s tournament and become a nationally relevant program for the first time since the days of Kevin Love, James Harden, and Aaron Brooks. Beat Oklahoma State and you take the step from a nice little comeback story to a team to watch. Beat Saint Louis — one of the hottest teams in the nation and a trendy Elite Eight pick? You won’t just be recognized as a west coast football school that had a good year in basketball anymore.
5. As you have probably heard, Northwestern fired head coach Bill Carmody on Saturday after 13 years in Evanston. What you probably didn’t hear, or expect to hear, was that Oregon State head coach Craig Robinson‘s name is showing up on many short lists of possible candidates for the vacant job. Scott Powers’ list goes in a lot of different directions, everywhere from VCU’s Shaka Smart to Duke assistant Chris Collins. But in the middle is Robinson, a former Wildcats’ assistant who grew up in Chicago and has recruited the area. It is very possible that Robinson would get an interview for the gig, but it’s tough seeing a program desperate for success offering the job to a man that failed to lead his team to any type of postseason tournament in 2012-13, much less even out of the basement in his own league.

It hasn’t been the easiest couple of weeks for Big 12 fans. Kansas may have fallen off the #1 seed line and Iowa State and Oklahoma are firmly on the bubble after the first full day of the conference tournament. What once looked like possibly six Big 12 teams in the Dance headlined with a #1 seed could now be four teams and no representation on the top line. Baylor’s hopes for an at-large bid were dashed after a phantom call on Phil Forte in the waning seconds of tonight’s game against Oklahoma State gave the Cowboys a 74-72 win. Unfortunately for the Bears, they still needed at least another win over Kansas State to make a serious case, so there won’t be any favors from the selection committee. Here’s where the potential NCAA Tournament teams stand and how they can improve their position heading into Friday’s action:

Bill Self and Kansas Have Ruled The Big 12 Tournament The Last Decade.

1. Kansas (27-5)

• What They Are Looking At: #2 seed
• Best Likely Scenario and Who The Need Help From: If the Jayhawks can win the Big 12 Tournament and beat Kansas State (#20 RPI) in the championship game, they could still land a #1 seed. The problem is, Kansas looks to be sandwiched between Louisville and Georgetown right now. If either of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, they would  get a #1 seed over the Jayhawks. If Kansas wins the Big 12 Tournament and neither of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, the Jayhawks will earn a top seed.
• Worst Case Scenario: #2 seed

2. Kansas State (26-6)

• What They Are Looking At: #4 seed
• Best Likely Scenario And Who They Need Help From: Kansas State has a great record but its resume doesn’t quite match. They’re currently the second-best #4 seed over at Bracket Matrix, but have fewer RPI top 50 wins (five) than teams directly above them in Ohio State (six), Marquette (seven) and New Mexico (eight). Even if the Wildcats beat Oklahoma State and Kansas to win the conference tournament, they’d still have as many top 50 wins as Marquette, which lost tonight to Notre Dame. If Ohio State and New Mexico lose in their first games of their conference tournaments, the Wildcats could sneak into a #3 seed with three wins in Kansas City.
• Worst Case Scenario: The record is nice, but with 10 wins coming against teams outside the RPI top 200 and a bad strength of schedule (#63), a loss tomorrow could earn them a #5 seed. Read the rest of this entry »