Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

LOCKS: 38
“SHOULD BE INS”: 0
TOTAL: 38 (minus eight for projected auto bid winners = 30)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 7

BID STEALERS STILL ALIVE:

• ACC: Maryland
• Atlantic 10: Massachusetts
• Conference USA: Southern Miss
• SEC: Vanderbilt

THIS UPDATE:  Charlotte is out after losing in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. Iowa is now a long shot after losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals.

There are currently 19 teams fighting for 5 spots. If you believe (as I do) that Baylor, Louisiana Tech and Akron are long shots at best (very small chance, if any to make the field) you can bring the numbers down to 16 teams fighting for 5 spots.

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ACC

LOCKS:

• Virginia (21-11, 11-7; RPI: 67): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also have six impressive wins. One of those wins is against Duke, who might be the nation’s best team now that Ryan Kelly is back.  On Friday, a loss in the ACC quarterfinals to N. C. State might have left Virginia one win short of what they needed to get into the field.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%
• Maryland (22-11, 8-10; RPI: 85): A second upset of Duke this season keeps Maryland’s faint at-large hopes alive. The Terps now can say they are the only team with a win over Ryan Kelly this year, but that may not be enough. This team’s fourth best RPI win is against Stony Brook.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

Atlantic 10

LOCKS:

• Temple (23-9, 11-5; RPI: 37): Friday night’s loss to Massachusetts ended the Owls’ seven game winning streak, but in the end I think the Owls have done enough to snare an at-large bid.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 70%
• La Salle (21-8, 11-5; RPI: 38): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. On Friday, a second loss to Butler in a week pushed the Explorers closer to the at-large cut-line.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%
• Massachusetts (20-10, 9-7; RPI: 57): The Minutemen upset Temple in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals Friday to pick up an eighth victory against the RPI top 100. This team has a shot to get in, but must make it to the Atlantic 10 finals. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

BIG EAST

LOCKS:

BIG 12

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Huge day on the Circle of March Thursday, as a whole slew of teams were knocked out of contention for the 2013 national championship. What we’re left with are 112 remaining schools on our way to the selection of a final 68 a little over two days from now. As always, we’d like to thank those who are no longer playing for their participation in college basketball this season.

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.14.13)

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We managed to miss yesterday’s update so consider today a two-fer on the Circle of March. Most of the major conference tournaments are in full swing now, and the last few — the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big Ten and a handful of others — start today. The numbers going into Thursday’s action: We started with 310 teams nine days ago; we’re now down to 160 remaining, which means not only are we roughly halfway home, but a nice, round 150 teams have been eliminated from contention. Over the next four days, of course, we’ll say goodbye to another 92.

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.12-13.13)

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While there are four teams in the ACC who are almost certain to make the NCAA Tournament, their seeds will likely be affected by how they perform. For the other eight teams, their result in the ACC Tournament will determine whether they qualify for the NCAA or any other postseason tournaments. The teams are listed below in order of their ACC Tournament seed.

#1 Miami (24-6, 15-3, RPI: 4 SOS: 4, KenPom: 14, Average Seed per Bracket Project: 2.51):

Larranaga Has the ACC Spotlight On Him Now (Credit: Nick Wass/Associated Press)

After Miami’s stumble to only win the conference regular season by one game overall (including dropping a game at home to Georgia Tech), Miami has slipped to a either the lowest #2 or the highest #3 seed in most bracketologists’ predictions. Miami probably can’t rise to a #1 seed by winning the ACC Tournament (even by beating Duke in the finals), but if it beats Duke en route to winning the title, Miami should be a safe bet for a #2 seed. Making the finals of the ACC Tournament could lock Miami into a #2 seed depending on the other teams’ results in their respective tournaments (i.e., Georgetown, Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State), so Jim Larranaga’s team should be hoping for these teams to stumble to lock up a #2. It is highly unlikely, even with a Friday loss, for Miami to fall below the #3-line, though, given its regular season title and quality wins over Duke and Michigan State.

#2 Duke (27-4, 14-4, RPI: 1, SOS: 1, KenPom: 5, Average Seed per Bracket Project: 1.00):

Duke is in prime NCAA Tournament position. It typically dominates the ACC Tournament (having won 10 of the last 14 tournaments). With the Blue Devils undefeated (18-0) with Ryan Kelly in the lineup and boasting the top RPI in the country, Duke is almost assured as a lock for a #1 seed in the tournament. If Duke wins the ACC title, they should be the overall #1 seed and play in the East Region. Making the finals would likely assure that #1 seed in the East, and any other result will still likely give Duke a #1 seed elsewhere. If Duke loses on Friday it could possibly drop from the #1-seed line, but that is an unlikely result given Duke’s laudable overall resume to this point.

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We realize the last real Big East Tournament is already in full swing in Madison Square Garden, with DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall and South Florida already sent packing in four chalky contests. But with 71% of the field still in the hunt and two second round games remaining tonight, we maintain that arriving late to the party is better than never showing up at all.

So here, in a format lifted shamelessly from Pat Forde, are our best- and worst-case for the four teams to be showcased tonight. What do each of them stand to gain or lose in New York City this week?

#11 Rutgers

Wally Judge (Tom Ciszek/NJSportsPhoto)

No. 11 seed Rutgers has already advanced into day two of the Big East Tournament after dispatching with DePaul in convincing fashion. They failed to advance beyond the first round in Madison Square Garden last season, losing 70-49 to #11-seed Villanova.

Next game: Rutgers will face No. 6 seed Notre Dame in the 9:00 PM slot tonight.

• Best Case: While they took the Irish down to the wire in South Bend in their only contest this season, that was with 20 points from Eli Carter, who would break his leg a month later. Sadly, at 15-15 (5-13 in conference play) and missing their best player, avenging a February loss to the Blue Demons is likely as good as it gets for the Mike Rice’s club in New York City. At #107 in the RPI, Rutgers’ best hope is to lock up an NIT bid with an upset win over Notre Dame.
• Worst Case: Mike Rice hurls a ball at Mike Brey’s head, resulting in a suspension for the duration of the CBI. Indiana’s General Assembly passes a resolution banishing Rice from the Hoosier State, forcing him to watch his team’s Big Ten road games in Bloomington and West Lafayette from his couch.

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Brian Otskey is an RTC columnist. Every Tuesday during the regular season he’ll be giving his 10 thoughts on the previous week’s action. You can find him on Twitter @botskey

1. Does Virginia want to make the NCAA Tournament? Since beating Duke almost two weeks ago, the Cavaliers have lost to Boston College and Florida State and barely escaped Maryland in overtime on Sunday in a game that each team tried to give away multiple times. The more and more I look at Virginia’s resume, the more I think this team will be in the NIT. It has gotten to the point where there are too many bad losses to overcome, barring a run this week in the ACC Tournament. The Hoos have a couple things going for them, mainly the win over Duke and the victory at Wisconsin in November. Home wins over North Carolina, NC State and bubble buddy Tennessee also help but Tony Bennett’s club has a stunning EIGHT bad losses on its resume. Virginia went 11-7 in the ACC but went 0-3 against Colonial Athletic Association teams. Go figure. From an efficiency perspective, this is a strong team that plays stifling defense, has a couple of great players in Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell to go along with a solid supporting cast. The resume lacks some punch though and Virginia has a lot of work to do this week in Greensboro. The Cavs will likely open with NC State on Friday, a game they really need to win.
   

   Tony Bennett will sweat it out this week

2. One team fighting with Virginia for a tournament berth is Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders were eliminated from the Sun Belt Tournament by Florida International on Sunday and now have to sit and sweat out the next five days. Kermit Davis’s team finished with an impressive 28-5 overall record and lost just once over a 20-game conference schedule, on the road in overtime to Arkansas State (the next best team in the league). Davis has been with the program since 2002 and has built it up to respectable mid-major status. Is this a team worthy of a chance at a bid? Absolutely. The question is, will it get one? If I were on the selection committee, I’d probably have to say no unfortunately. Despite doing what it was supposed to do in its conference, Middle Tennessee didn’t do much out of conference. Yes, it beat two SEC teams (Mississippi and Vanderbilt), but neither of those teams is making the NCAA Tournament (unless the Rebels have a great conference tournament). But the real reason why I’d leave Middle Tennessee out is the fact that it was not competitive against Florida or Belmont, two of its better non-conference opponents. A competitive showing in either game would likely have changed my mind. In addition, the Blue Raiders lost a tough one in overtime to Akron. Those are missed opportunities that may end up costing this team a chance to dance.
3. The fact that Stony Brook had to go on the road in the America East Tournament is a travesty. The Seawolves won the conference by three full games and their reward was a road trip to face #4 seed Albany in its own gym. It’s not right. I realize these smaller conferences don’t have the budgets that the power leagues do but would it be so difficult to host the tournament at whichever school wins the regular season title? Is that too much to ask? Instead, the America East picked Albany to host the quarterfinals and semifinals with the championship being hosted by the higher seed. The final part makes sense but the rest of it seems like bizarro world. Stony Brook had a stellar year, going 23-6 (14-2) in regular season play. Hopefully Steve Pikiell’s team will be rewarded with a nice seed in the NIT and maybe even a home game! Read the rest of this entry »

David Changas is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday’s OVC Championship in Nashville.

Late in Saturday’s Ohio Valley Conference Championship Game, it looked like the college basketball world would face a week-long debate about whether Belmont, a top-25 RPI team that won the league’s regular season championship, would merit an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after falling to defending champion Murray State. The Racers appeared to be in control when they led 62-58 with fewer than 40 seconds to play in regulation. But an Ian Clark jumper and a two missed free throws from Ed Daniel set up a Kerron Johnson drive that tied the game with nine seconds remaining. Following some controversy surrounding a clock stoppage issue and Murray State calling timeout before crossing half-court, the Racers could not get a good look for the win. In overtime, after Murray State star Isaiah Canaan dribbled the ball off of his foot in a tie game with 25 seconds remaining — one of 26 Racer turnovers on the night — it was Johnson again playing the hero as he pulled up in the lane and made a high-arcing jumper over Daniel, giving the Bruins a 70-68 victory and the league’s auto-bid in their first year, as well as the 1,000th victory in program history.

It Was Storybook For Belmont Saturday

Belmont is now able to avoid all talk of whether its resume was good enough to earn a coveted at-large spot in the field, and while we may never know whether it was, coach Rick Byrd is more than happy to not have to wonder. “I had thought about that question because I knew we could lose either of these games,” he said. Now, he can focus on getting his team ready for its next opponent, whoever it may be. The Bruins must sit and wait a week before finding out whether their resume was good enough to earn a seed that will give them a reasonable shot at a first-round victory, something that has eluded the program in its first five appearances in the Big Dance. There was the near-miss in 2008 against Duke that put the program on the national map, and the disappointing double-figure losses to Wisconsin and Georgetown the last two years, when the Bruins represented the Atlantic Sun. While they clearly stepped up in competition in the OVC this year, most projections, including our latest, have them in the #12-line, only a spot better than the past two seasons.  So while the RPI may be higher than it has ever been for Byrd’s team, the draw his team gets may look familiar. What likely faces the Bruins is a game against a bigger, more athletic high-major squad that will present match-up issues.

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Seven days left of Championship Fortnight, and we’ve already eliminated more than 80 teams. There are still 228 teams alive in the Circle of March, but with three league champions decided Saturday (note the halos for Florida Gulf Coast, Harvard and Belmont below) and a couple more today, we’re slowly but surely whittling our way down to the final 68. Yesterday’s list of eliminated teams follows the CoM.

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.08.13)

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Friday was a really active day on the Circle, as 19 more teams bid adieu to the 2012-13 season. We’re now down to 259 teams still alive for the 2013 national championship. And guess what — on Saturday we’ll crown our first automatic bid winner, out of the OVC. The Madness is here…

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.07.13)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• As the start of major conference tournaments near, the bubble is starting to take shape. In my Bubble Watch column on Friday, I added Creighton, North Carolina, and Illinois to my growing list of NCAA Tournament locks. In other words, this is a scary time for bubble teams.
• Kentucky is one of the more interesting bubble cases this season. The Wildcats have not been the same without Nerlens Noel, considering they lost to Tennessee by 30 and fell to Georgia on Thursday night. The ‘Cats probably need a win against Florida on Saturday to get into the field as an at-large, barring a trip to the SEC Tournament final.
• Meanwhile, Tennessee survived at Auburn on Wednesday to stay in my field. Virginia wasn’t as lucky against Boston College, but the Cavaliers stay in my field as the last team in. Virginia has six good wins and seven bad losses. If a couple of teams lose in their conference tournaments (Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Creighton), the Cavaliers and teams around them on my S-curve will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
• The race for No. 1 seeds continues to be a headache. Gonzaga appears locked in, barring a loss in the WCC Tournament. If the Bulldogs lose, I’m not sure what the committee will do with them. Indiana and Duke also appear to be No. 1 seeds right now, with the Blue Devils the strongest of the No.1  profiles. Duke hasn’t just been good with Ryan Kelly, they’ve been undefeated. Indiana has hit a rocky stretch, but the Hoosiers still have the look and overall profile of a No. 1 seed. Georgetown’s loss to Villanova on Wednesday makes me more confident that Kansas is the final No. 1 seed. Louisville is the team to watch. The Cardinals are on the move and Florida isn’t too far behind (only two losses when completely healthy).
• I will be updating this bracket more frequently during the upcoming week, so be sure to stay tuned for that. Eight days before Selection Sunday, I’m waiting for the madness to begin. Saturday should be a great start.

BID STEALERS TO WATCH:

• Murray State (OVC — Belmont is a bubble team)
• Indiana State & Illinois State (MVC — Creighton & Wichita State are probably in)
• Loyola Marymount & BYU/San Diego (WCC – Gonzaga is a lock. Saint Mary’s may be in either way).

This file was set for publishing before the BYU-San Diego game went final on Friday night.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor, Kentucky
NEXT FOUR OUT: Arizona State, Southern Miss, Providence, Maryland

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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